Will warm weather really kill off Covid-19? – BBC News

Theres no evidence yet for a seasonal behaviour of Covid-19, says Colizza. The behavioural component may play a role, too. But she warns it is too early to know if the measures put in place will be enough to stall the spread of the virus. By itself, it may partially reduce effective contagiousness due to the reduction of contacts along which the disease could be transmitted.

And if cases of Covid-19 do indeed tail off over the coming months it could be for a number of reasons prevention measures such as isolation and lockdowns are being successful; there is growing immunity in the population; or it may be an effect of the season, as Alberts models suggest.

If there is a seasonal effect, it could mask the true impact of the other two, warns Albert. In countries where a strong lockdown has meant not many people have been exposed, then I wouldnt be surprised that we will see a second wave come the fall and winter.

Even if Covid-19 does show some seasonal variability, it is unlikely to disappear entirely over the summer months, as some have suggested. But a dip in cases might bring some benefits.

The steps we are taking to flatten out the curve are expensive in economic terms, but they could help us push this pandemic into the summer, says Albert. If there is some seasonality, it might buy health systems the time they need to prepare.

And in a world scrambling to cope with the rapidly rising number of cases, it might just be time we desperately need.

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Will warm weather really kill off Covid-19? - BBC News