Will the protests cause a spike in COVID-19 cases? Wait two weeks. – The Philadelphia Inquirer

At the protest outside City Hall in support of George Floyd on Saturday, people were spaced more than 6 feet apart the recommended minimum for reducing the spread of the coronavirus. Most wore masks.

Could the protests here and elsewhere lead to a spike in COVID-19 cases? How about other recent outdoor events with large clusters of people, such as a Lake of the Ozarks pool party in Missouri on Memorial Day weekend?

The answer in either case will not be known for days, as symptoms from any new infections might not show up until two weeks after exposure.

There is one reason for cautious optimism: The events took place outside. Research to date suggests the coronavirus is far more likely to spread indoors, especially in poorly ventilated spaces.

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Yet Philadelphias own history suggests the open air is no guarantee. In 1918, a spike in deaths from influenza has been attributed to a parade that drew more than 200,000 attendees along Broad Street.

Joel Hersh, former director of the bureau of epidemiology at the Pennsylvania Department of Health, is among those worried that history may repeat itself.

The odds are not good that you would escape all these demonstrations without having somebody be positive, he said. I think its another disaster waiting to happen.

Should someone at any mass event later test positive, public health officials will have difficulty notifying individuals who may have been exposed, he said.

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Will the protests cause a spike in COVID-19 cases? Wait two weeks. - The Philadelphia Inquirer