When Will a Covid-19 Vaccine Be Available for Everyone in the World? Analyst Says by The End of 2021. – Barron’s

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The U.S. now has a half-dozen purchasing agreements with vaccine makers. And there are enough committed doses to immunize 75% of the population in 2021even assuming 40% of the them fall through, according to Bernstein analyst Ronny Gal.

Even if (say) two vaccines fail/underperform in trials or manufacturing issues cause only 60% of the promised dose to be delivered, HHS [the Department of Health and Human Services] would have enough to vaccinate [about] 85% of the U.S. population on the existing commitment alone, Gal wrote in a note on Friday.

In short, as long as the entire field does not fail, vaccines will available for the U.S. to be immunized in 2021.

Gal and his colleagues wrote that there appears to be enough data on timing, volumes, and prices to take a swing at modeling the Covid-19 vaccine market. So they did just that.

Once the developed world approaches vaccination rates of 50%, demand will slow down and substantial volume will be shifted towards emerging markets, they wrote. Assuming volume in line with projections of companies to date, there would be enough capacity by [year-end] 2021 to vaccinate everyone.

In terms of revenue, Gal and team note that revenue in the initial wave is mostly predetermined due to purchasing agreements. They model for roughly $20 billion in worldwide revenue for Covid-19 vaccines in 2021, the largest portion of which will be sold by Pfizer [ticker: PFE]. Again, the dynamics here are largely driven by the Pfizers relatively higher price point and the fact that they will begin delivering doses somewhat earlier.

Beyond 2021 is a fog, according to Gal. They note it would be hard to model without, some indication of relative efficacy/safety, durability, and how much demand will exceed supply in the developed world.

For now, they assume six players will be viable competitors for some time, a booster dose will be needed every two years, and prices will decline gradually. That all considered, they project a global market of between $5 billion to $6 billion in future years. In terms of market share, the Bernstein analysts assign a higher share to Sanofi (SNY) and GlaxoSmithKlines (GSK) candidate because our expectation [is a] recombinant protein vaccine will be preferable in most instances.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) gets the second highest share for similar reasons, with the analysts noting its platform has already been validated through the Zika vaccine.

Among the remaining players, we assign equal share ...given the uncertain nature of the vaccine data to-date, they added.

Write to Connor Smith at connor.smith@barrons.com

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When Will a Covid-19 Vaccine Be Available for Everyone in the World? Analyst Says by The End of 2021. - Barron's