What we know (and dont know) about Ohios surging coronavirus numbers – cleveland.com

CLEVELAND, Ohio Despite widely available vaccines, Ohios coronavirus numbers have surged to levels not seen since January.

Newly reported cases are running about 21 times higher than they were at the start of the second week of July. Hospitalizations have also increased significantly, and there are signs that deaths are starting to edge up. All this while the return of students to schools and dorms has triggered fears that the spread could become worse.

With this, the thirst for data has also increased. Cleveland.com has renewed efforts to share more of this information with a team of reporters following various aspects of the coronavirus pandemic, from hospitalizations and cases to vaccines and schools. (A few links to recent reports can be found at the bottom of this story.)

But with almost every piece of information released by the Ohio Department of Health, its important to keep in mind what is known and is not known.

What we know: Cases unquestionably are up sharply. The daily average of newly reported cases over the last week stood at 4,461 a day on Monday. On July 8, this average was a low for the year of just 211 a day, making worries at the time appear to be in the rearview mirror. Newly reported cases are now running higher than at any time since January, just after the start of vaccinations.

What we dont know: While the state health department updates case counts daily, the updates do not include breakdowns of how many of those newly infected were fully vaccinated, nor do they include information for how many of those tested positive are showing symptoms. But we do know more people are being tested either because they have symptoms, may have been exposed or as a routine precaution. The state reported 250,603 tests in the seven days through Monday, up from just 149,555 the first seven days of August. More tests undoubtedly uncover more symptom-free cases.

What we know: Coronavirus hospitalizations have been the most reliable metric in tracking the spread of the virus in the state since the onset of the outbreak early last year, cutting through some of the problems in tracking total case numbers, especially when testing is uneven. The sickest people go to the hospital. The Ohio Hospital Association relays coronavirus patient counts daily to the state health department. There were 2,412 coronavirus patients in the preliminary county for Monday, up 12-fold from a summer low of just 202 on July 6. Jumping just as sharply has been the number of these patients in intensive care units 696 on Monday versus 50 on July 11. The recent counts are back to where they were in January.

What we dont know: How many of the recent patients went home because their health conditions improved and how many died. More on the death statistics next.

What we know: Coronavirus-attributed deaths, as reported by the state, have ticked up slightly in recent weeks, with 110 reported last week versus 75 and 58 the previous two weeks. A total of 20,799 Ohio deaths have been attributed to the pandemic, peaking in late December.

What we dont know: Exactly how many people have died recently as delta has taken hold. The state health department in early March abandoned efforts to track coronavirus-related deaths in a timely manner. Until then, the state used reports from hospitals, urgent care centers and local health districts in reporting deaths, making corrections later if necessary if causes changed once cases were reviewed by the federal Centers for Disease Control. Now the state ignores the early reports, waiting instead for CDC rulings based on death certificates that routinely take several weeks and often months. So when a person dies in a hospital, it will be weeks or months before that person is included in the death totals.

What we know: Vaccinated people are much less likely to get severely sick, and this is holding true with the delta variant. Overall for the year, the state reports that just 2.3% of the coronavirus hospitalizations (469 of 20,767) have involved fully vaccinated people. That includes pre-delta cases. This share has increased recently as delta has taken over, but is still small. Fully vaccinated people accounted for 6.1% and 6.2% of the hospitalizations in the cases added to the states report each of the last two weeks. Overall, 56% of the Ohioans old enough to be vaccinated (age 12 and up) have completed all required doses. This includes close to 80% of those age 65 and up. For the year, 76 of the 7,035 deaths (1.1%) have involved fully vaccinated people.

What we dont know: Overall case rates in Ohio for the vaccinated population, and details for those partially vaccinated such as people who received just one of two required doses.

What we know: In addition to what individual school districts are reporting, the state health department each Thursday releases a report of total cases for students and staff since Aug. 9, and cases reported the previous week. Details are listed on the health departments website for each public school district and private school.

What we dont know: Real-time information statewide. The report issued each Thursday is based on data the state receives from local health departments the previous Monday through Sunday. The local health departments collect the data from the schools, before it is sent on to the state.

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What we know (and dont know) about Ohios surging coronavirus numbers - cleveland.com