What do the numbers tell us about COVID-19 in the state of Washington? – clarkcountytoday.com

On Sunday, Gov.r Jay Inslee announced four weeks of new statewide restrictions for Washington.

Today, Sunday, November 15, 2020, is the most dangerous public health day in the last 100 years of our states history. A pandemic is raging in our state. Left unchecked, it will assuredly result in grossly overburdened hospitals and morgues; and keep people from obtaining routine but necessary medical treatment for non-COVID conditions.

What do the numbers show? A citizen might ask: Is our hospital system actually on the verge of being overburdened? Are morgues on the verge of being overburdened? Where are all the COVID-19 cases occurring in our state?

According to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data, King County accounts for 26 percent of Washington states 125,498 COVID cases. They report 33,043 cases as of last week. Five counties account for almost 64 percent of the cases in the state..

King County has over five times the number of cases as Clark County. The second largest number of cases in the state is Pierce County at 12,547; 38 percent of King County and double the number of Clark County. As a percentage of the states total cases, Clark Countys 6,160 cases is 4.9 percent.

When it comes to fatalities, King County accounts for 836 deaths; over eight times the 100 deaths in Clark County. Pierce County has 247 deaths.

One of Gov. Inslees metrics for reopening the state is cases per 100,000 population. Using that metric, King County isnt number one in the state. Its actually number 14 of the 39 counties in Washington. Franklin County has that distinction, with 5,317 cases and 69 deaths. But because they have such a small population, 95,222 people, Franklin Countys case rate per 100,000 people is 5,584 making them nearly four times worse than King County using that metric.

Citizens might ask Is cases per 100,000 people really the proper metric for the governor to be using to open or close down businesses, or to restrict peoples activities?

Clark County is seventh in the state for total cases and number 19 for cases per 100,000. As of the 2010 census, it is the fifth most populous county in the state. Washingtons total population is estimated at 7.6 million people, and Clark County population is estimated at 488,000 for 2019.

On Monday, emergency room physician and former governor candidate Dr. Raul Garcia shared his observations and concerns. He doesnt believe we need a one size fits all solution.

The reason that we have had an increase in numbers is number one, were testing more people, he said. Number two, people are choosing their mental health over getting this virus which is 98 percent survivable.

This virus is dangerous, this virus is contagious. But we can beat this virus without crippling our mental health, without crippling our economic health in the state.That is exactly what were doing with these mandates. We are not thinking about the fact that 1.6 million people have come out and asked for mental health help.

We need to be consistent following scientific data. I think that if we give the power to our counties, have our commissioners get together with the medical leaders and the mental health leaders of that county and business leaders, each county could find solutions that balance COVID-19 with mental health and with business health. And, every county is going to be different.

Looking at the national picture by county, Los Angeles County has one third of a million COVID-19 cases leading the nation at 332,865. King County is number 50 in the nation and Pierce County is number 176. Multnomah County is number 179 with 12,382 cases and 191 deaths.

The top five counties in the United States account for 1,120,226 cases. They are Los Angeles County, Cook County, Illinois; Miami-Dade County, Florida; Maricopa County, Arizona; and Harris County, Texas. Those five counties account for over 10 percent of the 10.6 million U.S. COVID-19 cases.

The original concern triggering the stay home, stay safe order by Inslee and others was the fear of overrunning hospital capacity. He wanted to make sure our healthcare system could handle all the expected COVID-19 cases.

Washington state has 10,312 hospital beds according to the American Hospital Directory. The data shows COVID-19 patients occupation of those hospital beds peaked at 516 beds, or 5 percent of the statewide total, the week of March 29 early in the pandemic. In Washington, 9,281 COVID-19 patients have been hospitalized over the past eight and one half months; less than the total available beds statewide. Current data shows 608 people hospitalized for the virus; about 5.9 percent of the states hospital beds.

A September study by Biomedcentral reported an average hospital stay of five days for COVID-19 patients outside of China. For ICU patients, it was seven days.

Here in Clark County, there are 616 hospital beds. Legacy Salmon Creek has 166 beds and . PeaceHealth Southwest Medical Center in Vancouver has 450 beds. COVID-19 patient occupation of those beds peaked at 21 beds the week of March 22, or 3.4 percent of Clark County hospital beds.

According to Clark County Public Health data, there are presently 46 people with COVID-19 hospitalized, and another six that may have it, as hospitals await test results. The county reports 8.3 percent of hospital beds are currently occupied by these patients. Over the entire pandemic, it is reported 422 people have been hospitalized with the virus; less than the 616 hospital bed capacity.

Furthermore, 88.5 percent of Clark County ICU beds are unoccupied as of last Friday. There remains a great deal of capacity to handle individuals needing hospitalization for the virus.

The good news is that area healthcare providers appear to have done an excellent job dealing with COVID-19 patients and returning them to good health. The number of people dying due to COVID-19 has been declining. On Friday, Washington reported 25 people had passed with the virus. The 7-day moving average is 12 deaths. The largest single day for people passing with the virus was April 26 with 73 deaths.

The COVID-19 tracking project using the CDC data says there is reason to be hopeful.

The gap that opens up between the hospitalization and fatality curves illustrates one of the most encouraging pieces of news about the pandemic in the United States.

This pattern in the data we compile is borne out by a recent finding that in one large New York healthcare system, patients hospitalized with COVID-19 had a greater than 25 percent chance of dying at the beginning of the pandemic. By August, COVID-19 patients admitted to the same hospital system had a less than eight percent chance of dying.

So while testing is up and the number of COVID-19 cases is up, fewer people are dying from the virus.

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What do the numbers tell us about COVID-19 in the state of Washington? - clarkcountytoday.com