What are probable coronavirus cases and why are they still increasing in Michigan? – MLive.com

Throughout the coronavirus pandemic, health officials have provided near-daily updates of new confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths.

Similarly, the state health department has kept a running count of probable cases and deaths, meaning they are likely to be COVID-19 infections, however they havent been confirmed by the most accurate of tests.

As of Tuesday, Jan. 5, the Department of Health and Human Services has tracked 42,232 probable cases -- 740 more than the day prior. The department has also tracked 741 probable deaths -- 28 more than the day prior. Thats in addition to the 504,410 cases and 12,867 deaths that have been confirmed as COVID-19.

Practically speaking, it doesnt matter for an individual case if its deemed probable or confirmed, said Dr. Dennis Cunningham, medical director of infection prevention for Henry Ford Health System.

If Im seeing you in the emergency room or a doctors office and you have the symptoms and the antigen test, thats probably enough for me to make a diagnosis, Cunningham said. If youre not sick enough to be in the hospital, thats more than good enough.

These (confirmed and probable) are just terms people who look at outbreaks use to track and better understand disease transmission.

But what makes a case probably COVID-19? According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a case is considered probable if an individual reports:

There are two main types of test for diagnosing an active COVID-19 infection: PCR and antigen. A coronavirus case isnt confirmed until an individual has a PCR test come back positive for COVID-19.

PCR tests are considered the gold standard in SARS-CoV-2 detection. They look for the RNA -- or genetic blueprints -- of the virus and a positive result means you have a current or recent coronavirus infection, Cunningham said.

An antigen test, meanwhile, seeks out the protein found on the outside of the virus. Positive results from an antigen test spark a probable case, according to MDHHS policy, until a PCR test can confirm its finding of an infection.

Cunningham said some antigen tests are really good but noted that they trade in some level of accuracy for speed. They may also be tricked by a similar protein found in another less-serious coronavirus, which can cause more of a common cold.

Both PCR and antigen tests are conducted by nasal swab. Both can have same-day results, though antigen tests typically offer the quickest turnaround times. Thus, its hard to know which youve had done without asking your test provider.

Lynn Sutfin, a spokeswoman for MDHHS, said there are cases where an individual might have symptoms of COVID-19 and a known exposure to a positive case in their home. In that case, that person would be considered a probable case, whether they got an antigen test but no follow-up PCR test, or whether they decided not to get tested all together.

Probable cases can be changed to confirmed cases, MDHHS, upon processing of a positive PCR test.

Similarly to cases, deaths can also be deemed probable under the same circumstances, or if a death certificate lists COVID-19 as a cause of death without a PCR test to confirm.

Sutfin said if someone dies after receiving positive antigen test results for COVID-19, they likely wouldnt have a PCR test done postmortem to confirm the diagnosis unless someone requested it.

Being a confirmed COVID-19 death or a probable death, Im not sure for many folks if it makes a lot of difference, she said.

National data, as well as data from some states, combine confirmed cases and deaths with probable ones, while others like Michigan report them separately. Michigan updates its counts most weekdays around 3 p.m. through its online COVID-19 dashboard.

For more statewide data, visit MLives coronavirus data page, here. To find a testing site near you, check out the states online test finder, here, send an email to COVID19@michigan.gov, or call 888-535-6136 between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. on weekdays.

Read more on MLive:

128K Michiganders have received the coronavirus vaccine in first three weeks

Michigan to distribute 3.5 million free KN95 masks to protect against COVID-19

Michigan surpasses 500K confirmed coronavirus cases

Michigan lists 106 new coronavirus outbreaks and 943 ongoing clusters in Jan. 4 report

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What are probable coronavirus cases and why are they still increasing in Michigan? - MLive.com

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