Three Years After Covid-19 Vaccine Rollout, CDC Still Gets Messaging Wrong – Forbes

Control and Prevention Director Mandy Cohen testifies before the House Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee November 30, 2023. The committee heard testimony on the topic of "Unmasking Challenges CDC Faces in Rebuilding Public Trust Amid Respiratory Illness Season." (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images) Getty Images

As U.S. Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths increase this month as a result of yet another wave of infections sweeping the nation, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is telling people to get vaccinated. However, as its main message, instead of touting the vaccines effectiveness at greatly reducing the risk of severe disease and death the CDC asserts the vaccines ability to prevent the spread of Covid-19, which is largely inaccurate. Such problematic messaging may exacerbate the publics decline in trust in the CDC.

Nationwide Covid-19 deaths are rising again. The weekly total is over 2,000 for the first time since the beginning of the year. In the past week, the average weekly death toll increased by 25%, while hospitalizations are up by nearly 18%.

After a tally of more than 1.2 million Covid-19 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic, the last thing the U.S. wants to see is a winter spike.

As countermeasures, people whove tested positive, have symptoms or been exposed to someone with Covid-19 should consider the use of KN95 or N95 masks, proper ventilation in public indoor settings and avoidance of close contact with others. Furthermore, its advised to get vaccinated or receive updated boosters, especially those in at-risk categories such as the elderly and immune-compromised.

But CDCs messaging on vaccination leaves something to be desired. This week, the agency posted: The only thing we want you to spread this holiday season is love and cheer. Prevent the spread of #flu, #COVID, and #RSV by getting vaccinated.

While vaccination is certainly recommended as a way to diminish the chance of serious illness, its not going to do much to curb the spread of Covid-19. Its erroneous to suggest that vaccines are an effective tool to prevent transmission of the coronavirus.

Messaging matters, especially when it emanates from a public health agency thats been under fire for several years for inconsistent and at times wrong messages.

Theres plenty of evidence to support the use of vaccines to reduce disease severity and death. This is indeed what the CDC ought to emphasize when it addresses the public about the need for vaccination and boosters.

Since Covid-19 vaccines became widely available in the spring of 2021, there has been a sizable gap in the fatality rate between the unvaccinated and vaccinated.

A Commonwealth Fund study estimated that through November 2022, Covid-19 vaccines prevented more than 18.5 million U.S. hospitalizations and 3.2 million deaths.

By the end of 2022, data began to show that the majority of Covid-19 deaths were among the vaccinated. But this doesnt imply that vaccines and boosters are ineffective. The absolute number of deaths may now be higher in vaccinated individuals, but this is because there are far more vaccinated than unvaccinated individuals.

Its the relative rates of Covid-19 fatalities among the unvaccinated versus the vaccinated that are relevant. These rates demonstrate unequivocally the effectiveness of vaccines. Its clear, for example, from the chart below, which enumerates Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 people stratified by vaccination status, that being vaccinated protects against death.

The disparity in death rate between the unvaccinated and vaccinated did shrink in early 2023. The last posted data point in the graph is April 2023. For the nation as a whole we dont have more recent data. However, for a state like Washington we do. There continues to be a differential in death rates and severity of illness. From September 14 to October 11, 2023, unvaccinated individuals in the state of Washington were between 1.3 and 2.5 times more likely to die from Covid-19 compared to those who received at least one booster dose in addition to having completed the primary series of two vaccinations. And from October 6 to November 2, 2023, unvaccinated individuals were between two and 4.5 times more likely to be hospitalized with Covid-19 than those who received at least one booster dose on top of the first two shots.

Its this kind of evidence that should be highlighted in CDCs messaging on the importance of vaccines in the effort to prevent severe illness and death from Covid-19.

I'm an independent healthcare analyst with more than 24 years of experience analyzing healthcare and pharmaceuticals. Specifically, I analyze the value (costs and benefits) of biologics and pharmaceuticals, patient access to prescription drugs, the regulatory framework for drug development and reimbursement, and ethics with respect to the distribution of healthcare resources. I have approximately 110 publications in peer-reviewed journals, in addition to hundreds of articles in newspapers and periodicals. I have also presented my work at numerous trade, industry, and academic conferences. From 1999 to 2017 I was a research associate professor at the Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development. Prior to my Tufts appointment, I was a post-doctoral fellow at the University of Pennsylvania, and I completed my PhD in economics at the University of Amsterdam. Before pursuing my PhD I was a management consultant at Accenture in The Hague, Netherlands. Currently, and for the past 6 years, I work on a freelance basis on a variety of research, teaching, and writing projects.

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Three Years After Covid-19 Vaccine Rollout, CDC Still Gets Messaging Wrong - Forbes