The COVID Summer Wave Is Still HereWhat Doctors Say It May Mean for Winter – Prevention Magazine

While the reprieve from soaring temperatures may make it seem like the season is coming to a close, the COVID-19 summer wave persists. In fact,

While summer COVID waves are nothing newweve experienced them nearly every year since the pandemic beganthis wave has been drawn out. With kids headed back to school, its only natural to wonder if this wave will stretch right into fall and winter, especially with the contagious KP.3.1.1. and LB.1 variants circulating.

Meet the experts: Thomas Russo, M.D., professor and chief of infectious disease at the University at Buffalo in New York; infectious disease expert Amesh A. Adalja, M.D., senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security; Adriana Glenn, Ph.D., associate professor at the George Washington University School of Nursing.

So, whats the latest on the COVID summer wave 2024 and what does this mean for this winter? Heres what we know right now.

Theres a lot happening with COVID-19 in the U.S. right now. Percent positivitywhich is the percentage of all COVID-19 tests performed that are actually positivestands at a whopping 18.1% right now, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Right now, 2.4% of people who head to the emergency room are diagnosed with COVID-19 and nearly 2% of all deaths in the country are due to the virus, per CDC data.

This is all being fueled by the so-called FLiRT variants, including KP.3. Currently variants KP.3.1.1, LB.1, and KP.2.3 are the most common ones circulating in the country, per the CDC.

Its hard to say for sure how long the COVID-19 summer wave will last, but we probably have a few more weeks to go, according to Thomas Russo, M.D., professor and chief of infectious disease at the University at Buffalo in New York.

The wave has been hitting different parts of the country at different times, he says. The South and West coast were hit first. In general, Dr. Russo says that the waves tend to rise over four to six weeks, plateau, and then decrease over six to eight weeks. Were still going to be in the middle of this for a few weeks, and certainly through Labor Day, he says.

Infectious disease expert Amesh A. Adalja, M.D., senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, agrees. COVID summer waves usually last into about September and then the virus diminishes its activity, he says. Cases tend to ramp up again when the weather gets colder, Dr. Adalja adds.

Hopefully well have a respite before we hit the Thanksgiving and religious holiday seasons, which is the start of the winter waves, Dr. Russo says.

The official symptoms of COVID-19 have not changed. According to the CDC, those include:

But many people with COVID-19 right now are experiencing what feels like a cold, says Adriana Glenn, Ph.D., associate professor at the George Washington University School of Nursing. The symptoms do remain very similar to those of upper respiratory viruses, she adds.

This cold-like experience is a reflection of the level of immunity in the population in the virus, causing more cold-like symptoms as a persons immune system is able to control it much better, Dr. Adalja explains.

Some people have a cough, but it tends to be more of a throat-clearing cough vs. something deep in the chest, Dr. Russo says. Theres a sense of not feeling well in the first few days. That tends to go away and leaves you with a head cold.

But Dr. Russo stresses that people who are at high risk for serious COVID-19 infections may have a different experience. Symptoms to watch out for include shortness of breath, chest pain, dizziness, and confusion, among others, Dr. Russo says. While high-risk patients are the most likely to experience these, he points out that anyone can become seriously ill with COVID-19.

Its not entirely clear at the moment. This virus does tend to increase in circulation in the winter, so we have to anticipate that, Dr. Adalja says. This has occurred despite summer increases every year the virus has been with us.

But if you happen to get infected with the virus now and the same variants are still circulating this winter, its possible youll have a reasonable degree of protection in the winter, Dr. Russo says. However, we know that immunity wanes over time, he continues. Protection against severe disease tends to last four to six months and protection against infections tends to last even less than that.

Its also entirely possible that a new variant will surface and cause a new wave of infections, Dr. Russo says. Glenn agrees. The viruses year-long presence provides more opportunities for mutation and when that happens there are new variants that emerge, she says.

So, what does this mean for you? Once the new COVID-19 vaccine is released, Dr. Russo recommends getting it. The new formulation should be available soon, he says. Were still seeing 400 to 500 deaths from COVID a week and theyre largely preventable. Im hoping we can do a little bit better with vaccination as we move forward into the fall.

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The COVID Summer Wave Is Still HereWhat Doctors Say It May Mean for Winter - Prevention Magazine