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At 16, ShaNiyah McGee could see her future clearly. She wanted to go to college to become a pediatrician and own a nail salon and somehow, some way, she wanted her younger siblings to come to a university with her.
Shes that kind of person, her grandmother, Laurena Ellis, said. She didnt have a bad bone in her body.
But unfortunately, none of this will come to pass. On Sept. 28 the day ShaNiyah emerged from her bedroom where she spent days recovering from COVID-19 to return to school she collapsed in her Dallas home and died, becoming one of over 100 Texas coronavirus fatalities under the age of 19.
As the coronavirus pandemic moves into a third year, recent data provides a clearer picture of COVID-19s deadly impact in Texas. Today marks the one-year anniversary of when vaccines were widely available to anyone over the age of 16 and in that time, deaths have slowed considerably.
Vaccines became available to those older than 12 last May. Between then and January, COVID-19 killed about 29,000 Texans. About 82% of those deaths, including ShaNiyahs, were among people who had not been vaccinated.
Behind these figures are real families, broken by the deaths of loved ones lost too early to a disease that often infects several members of a family at once. ShaNiyahs mother, Felicia Boulden, eventually recovered only to arrange her oldest daughters funeral.
Ellis said her granddaughter ShaNiyah had planned to get the shots after she fully recovered from COVID-19. Now, everyone eligible in the family has received the vaccines. Ellis and Boulden have struggled to understand how Boulden lived but ShaNiyah died.
We think she bargained with God to leave her mother for her sisters and her brother, Ellis said.
Vaccination has dramatically changed the impact of the coronavirus, which first appeared in the United States in early 2020. Before vaccines were available to everyone a year ago, Texans 80 and older died most frequently from COVID-19.
But when the coronavirus delta variant hit last September, a high vaccine rate for older Texans protected them, while deaths among younger residents began rising. Adults in their 60s died more often than any other age group during the surge, followed by those in their 70s and those in their 50s.
Brent Earles, 65, of Dallas, was one of those Texans in January. He worked as a shopping mall Santa for years, hoisting children onto his lap and listening to their Christmas wishes.
My mom commented that it was probably one of the happiest times that shes ever seen him was being Santa at this [last] event, but it is almost certainly where he contracted COVID, his son Jared Earles said.
On New Years Eve, doctors rushed an unvaccinated Brent Earles, as he struggled to breathe, into the intensive care unit, where he remained for a near monthlong fight against COVID-19.
On Jan. 25, he died four days after his 65th birthday, one of the nearly 2,000 Texans in their 60s who have died in the first two months of this year from the virus.
Its the natural order of things that at some point in your life, your parents die, Earles said. Certainly, I didnt want or expect it to be like this, so suddenly and so needlessly. My dad had a lot of living left and he had a lot more to give.
In the beginning, Earles family and doctors thought Brent would make it. He had battled with COVID-19 pneumonia in both lungs. Two weeks in the hospital stripped him of 20 pounds, but he had improved enough that doctors prepared to move him out of the ICU.
In those early days at the hospital, Jared said, his father began to think seriously for the first time about getting the shots.
Brent had held concerns about the vaccines safety, which he and his son regularly discussed. His son wanted him to get vaccinated, but the older man refused. That seemed to be changing as Brent slowly regained his strength.
On one hand, my dad is a number. To most people, hes just one of an unnecessarily large number. And he also fits in that unvaccinated camp, But, Jared Earles added, He was much more than a statistic to me.
As Brent was preparing to move out of the ICU, Brents mother, who was unvaccinated, died of COVID-19. Soon after, new scans revealed a severe regression in Brents lungs.
His lung scans kind of went from mostly clear to terrible, Jared said. [For] COVID cases, its a long, slow, arduous recovery, and setbacks are extremely fast and often fatal. And thats what happened.
In Brents last moments, the father passed the torch to his son. Jared had moved back to Texas seven years ago to work with his father.
He told me that I had surpassed him, Jared said. And it was my time to continue on.
About two months have passed since the omicron surge, which took the lives of at least 6,000 Texans, and the state is seeing a relative respite from the pandemic as COVID-19 restrictions begin to lift.
Texas is now averaging about 60 deaths a day, down from over 200 daily deaths at the height of omicron. During the delta variant peak, there was an average of 300 deaths in one day.
While death rates have slowed, the United States is still on track to reach 1 million COVID-19 deaths in the coming weeks. Texas leads the nation with the second-highest number of COVID-19 deaths behind California, which records about 2,000 more deaths despite having 10 million more people. Overall, Texas has had 296 deaths per 100,000 residents since the pandemic began, ranking it roughly in the middle of all states.
However, other variants will be coming. A mutation of omicron, called BA.2, is currently causing surges across Europe. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said it is at least 50% more transmissible than its predecessor but does not appear to cause a deadlier illness. Federal data showed the new strain accounting for 1 in 4 new U.S. COVID-19 cases.
While Fauci is expecting an uptick in domestic cases, it is unclear if the increase will reflect the intense surges seen this past January and last September.
Rebecca Fischer, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the Texas A&M University School of Public Health, said Texans should keep their guard up.
Were doing OK right now, but this is the time to gain ground on the virus, Fischer said. By no means is this a time to act like the pandemic is over.
Despite the virus mutations, vaccines are still the best defense against COVID-19. Right now, the states fully vaccinated rate sits at just below 60%. Booster rates are even lower and now theres a second booster to be made available this month. Only 22% of Texans have received a booster shot. Increasing these rates will not only prevent death but will make the emergence and transmission of new variants more difficult.
Fischer does believe there will come a time where the individual and public health measures will have largely suppressed the virus, and that time could be close, but only with significant investment in public health services.
Public health [experts] have been screaming this forever. But now, its becoming really apparent, Fischer said.
Earlier this month, Republican pushback prompted Congress to cut $15.6 billion for COVID-19 relief that would have paid for treatments, vaccines and testing. If Congress does not release additional funds, the money for COVID testing and treatment for Americas tens of millions of uninsured people could likely run out in April.
As global COVID-19 cases rise, Fischer said the United States must move aggressively before the wave hits here to combat future deaths.
When I look at the numbers that 100 Texans a day are dying, I think the numbers are a little bit down now, but thats not OK. Its never been OK, Fischer said. Its never been OK to see those numbers and think that we dont need to do anything and its all OK and normal now.
Disclosure: Texas A&M University has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.
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