Ohios disturbing new trend of increasing coronavirus cases – cleveland.com

CLEVELAND, Ohio - When the Ohio Department of Health on Monday reported the largest single-day increase in coronavirus cases in more than a month it wasnt a blip, but rather a significant example of a trend that had been developing since late last week.

The long and generally steady decline of newly reported COVID-19 cases is over, at least for the time being. And the number of cases is trending up.

For 12 straight days - from June 6 through last Wednesday - the number of new cases reported each day ranged from 300 to 434, averaging 389 a day during this period.

Then, starting on Wednesday, the state has reported 700, 609, 531, 546 and finally 729 in its updates at 2 p.m. each day.

More clearly put, the seven-day average - a way to smooth out trends that could otherwise be affected by the timely processing lab work or paperwork - hit a two-month low on June 12 at 381. Since then, the seven-day average has increased nearly every day, hitting 566 on Monday - the highest point since May 27.

While the trend is clear, whats behind the spike is unknown for sure at this early stage with limited publicly available data on these new cases. At least three factors could be coming into play.

* Ohio gradually has resumed activities, from work to play, including the wider opening of restaurants and stores, and entertainment centers such as pools and parks.

* Early on, many people with symptoms were never tested. When supplies were limited, testing focused on the sickest and oldest patients, and healthcare workers. Now, anyone can get a test, Gov. Mike DeWine has said. In the seven days through Monday, the state reported 102,190 tests, up from 80,140 and 75,922 the previous two weeks.

* And some older cases are being added to the totals, such as those in which blood testing shows earlier presence of the virus. In the last week, 204 cases with an onset of symptoms from May or earlier have been added to the total, including 97 from April or earlier.

COVID-19 hospital stays until recently had been trending down in Ohio. This chart shows the number of patients on a given day, as reported by hospitals to the Ohio Hospital Association. Out-of-state patients are included. Totals for the most recent day or two may be revised later.Rich Exner, cleveland.com

One way to clean the data for uneven testing and reporting of cases is to look only at hospitalization records. These are among the most serious of cases, and also those for which state health officials were always most likely to know about.

The encouraging trend on hospitalizations to date is that they have not shown the same spike upward found in the overall case numbers.

The numbers for both total coronavirus patients and those in intensive care units are well below where they were from April through early June, though up slightly the last couple of days.

For example, the Ohio Hospital Association reported 549 coronavirus patients in Ohio hospitals on Monday, with 217 of those in ICUs. This compares with 760 and 323 on June 1, and 1,067 and 411 on May 1.

However, a patient could have coronavirus for several days or more before being hospitalized, or even being diagnosed. And the latest hospitalization numbers are often later revised up slightly.

Rich Exner, data analysis editor for cleveland.com, writes about numbers on a variety of topics. Follow on Twitter @RichExner. See other data-related stories at cleveland.com/datacentral.

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Ohios disturbing new trend of increasing coronavirus cases - cleveland.com