New BA.2.75 Omicron Subvariant: Heres The Centaurus Covid-19 Coronavirus – Forbes

Will decreases in Covid-19 testing locations impair the ability to monitor new Covid-19 coronavirus ... [+] variants such as the BA.2.75 Omicron subvariant, which has been dubbed the Centaurus variant? (Photo by Wang Ying/Xinhua via Getty Images)

While it aint the Centaurus of Covid-19 attention right now, the new BA.2.75 Omicron subvariant does deserve to be closely monitored. This so-called Centaurus subvariant, first detected in India, has now appeared in at least 10 other countries including the U.S. And there are eight-not-so-simple reasons why the BA.2.75 could potentially be even more concerning than the already concerning BA.5 subvariant of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Before you run around the room flapping your arms in a panic, though, the emphasis here is on the word potentially as opposed to definitely or fer sure. Plus, public health authorities will never say, OK, everyone, time to panic now.

Speaking of public health authorities, guess whos now monitoring the BA.2.75? The World Health Organization, thats who. If you look at the World Health Organizations (WHOs) Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants website, youll now find the BA.2.75 categorized as a VOC-LUM. What the VOC is a VOC-LUM? Well, it stands for Variants of Concern (VOC) Lineage Under Monitoring (LUM), which basically means that these are offshoots of variants that have already been deemed VOCs and deserve to be closely watched. The list of VOC-LUMs currently includes several sub-lineages of the BA.2 Omicron subvariant (that is, the BA.2.12.1, BA.2.9.1, BA.2.11, BA.2.13, and BA.2.75) along with two sister lineages of the BA.1 and BA.2 Omicron subvariants (consisting of the BA.4 and BA.5).

The BA.4 and BA.5 have already proven to be twisted sister lineages, so to speak. During a July 6 media briefing, the WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, mentioned that, On Covid-19, globally reported cases have increased nearly 30% over the past two weeks. Four out of six of the WHO sub-regions saw cases increase in the last week. Clearly, this goes against the Covid is over narrative that some have been trying to unjustifiably spread. The WHO Director-General then specified that In Europe and America, BA.4 and BA.5 are driving waves, before mentioning the Centaurus: In countries like India a new sub lineage of BA.2.75 has also been detected, which were following.

On July 6, World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said, In ... [+] countries like India a new sub lineage of BA.2.75 has also been detected, which were following. (Photo by FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images)

The BA.4 and BA.5 have been essentially making waves in part because theyve proven more transmissible than previous versions of the virus. However, there may be another inescapable reason for their Covid-19 surge production role: immune escape. Immune escape may sound like a ride in a bad amusement park, but it represents what happens when a virus has accumulated enough mutations to look different enough to avoid any existing immune protection. This would be akin to your high school classmate getting so much plastic surgery or such an extreme makeover that you end up asking him or her during a reunion, hi, have we met before? Essentially, mutations may have made the BA.5 so different from the original SARS-CoV-2 and other earlier versions like the Alpha, Beta, and Delta variants that immune protection you may already have from either vaccination or previous infection may not be able to adequately recognize and protect against the BA.5.

This greater transmissibility and immune escape potential are what prompted Eric Topol, MD, founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, to call the BA.5 the worst version of the virus that weve seen. As I wrote for Forbes on Sunday, such a description is sort of like calling Transformers: The Last Knight the worst of the Transformers movies. When something is the worst of the bad, it certainly isnt good news.

Ah, but, if BA.5 already looks very different from earlier versions of the virus like the BA.1 and BA.2 Omicron subvariants, the Centaurus subvariant takes the whole makeover thing eight steps further. Its not clear who came up with the nickname Centaurus, which presumably is an extension of the word centaur. A centaur is a creature thats half human and half horse. Its a mythical creature in case you are wondering whether this description matches that of your boss. Nevertheless, such a moniker could potentially apply to something that looks quite different from anything that youve seen before. The following tweet from Topol pointed to just how different the BA.2.75 looks compared to the BA.5:

Topol included a tweet thread from Ulrich Elling, PhD, a researcher at the Institute of Molecular Biotechnology in Vienna, Austria. This tweet thread illustrated which parts of the BA.2.75 viruss spike protein are affected by these mutations. Note that the areas affected include the receptor-binding portion, that is the part of the spike protein that first docks with your cells sort of like how your hands grab a refrigerator door handle before you try to get inside. In his tweet thread, Elling stated that The number of 8 additional mutations in BA.2.75 is remarkable, Delta had 8 in spike in total. 3 mutations can make a huge difference (BA.5). Thus the 11 Mutations distinct between BA.5 and BA.2.75 could allow for yet another wave as BA.5 immunity might not protect, as you can see here:

As seen above, Elling described his thread as HIGHLY SPECULTIVE in ALL CAPS. It would be considered highly speculative as well since more data and info are needed before anyone can make more definitive conclusions about how much of a threat BA.2.75 may turn out to be. Just because the BA.2.75 is different doesnt mean that it will become a major problem. In order to overtake other versions of the virus, the BA.2.75 needs to be more fit than the BA.5 and other variants in some way. In this case, being more fit doesnt mean able to do more push-ups on its little spikes. It means being able to survive and spread more readily than other circulating variants.

Is the BA.2.75 actually more transmissible than other variants and subvariants? In the words of Carly Rae Jepsen, call it maybe. There have been some suggestions that this might be the case. For example, Mike Honey, founder of Manga Solutions a data visualization company in Melbourne, Australia, posted the following graph showing how the detection of BA.2.75 has increased in India, where this subvariant was first detected:

Before you say, oh, Honey about this rise, take such information with a fanny pack of salt for now until more data and studies emerge to more accurately determine the BA.2.75s transmissibility. Sure, the BA.2.75 has already appeared in at least 10 other countries including Australia, Canada, Germany, New Zealand, the U.K., and the U.S. But for it to keep spreading, it will have to overtake the BA.5. And thats not going to be easy. The BA.5 is the current dominant, alpha-dog version of the virus in many countries including the U.S, where it now comprises an estimated 53.6% of reported Covid-19 cases, according to the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Its also not yet clear whether the BA.2.75 may cause worse Covid-19, as Soumya Swaminathan, MD, Chief Scientist for the WHO, emphasized in the video accompanying the following tweet:

Again, about the BA.2.75 much to learn we have, as Yoda might say. So dont jump to conclusions yet about what this subvariant may end up doing. On one end of the spectrum, the BA.2.75 could go the way of many reality TV show characters, making a little bit of news momentarily before fading back into obscurity. On the other end of the spectrum, the bad end, this variant could eventually displace others as the new alpha-dog of variants and fuel additional surges. Then there are a bunch of different possible scenarios that fall between these two extremes. Predicting what will happen to a subvariant so early on and what other competing subvariants may emerge can be like trying to predict what fashion trends will take hold. Heck who predicted that knitted crop tops, sagging pants, and way-too-ripped jeans would become popular before they actually did?

Regardless, the emergence of the BA.2.75 shouldnt change what you should already be doing, with an emphasis on the word should. Its another reminder that the Covid-19 pandemic is definitely not over and that Covid-19 precautions are still needed, despite what some people, politicians, your Uncle Fred, that person at the smoothie bar, or those anonymous social media accounts may try to tell you. While the new BA.2.75 may or may not become the Centaurus of Covid-19 attention in the coming weeks or months, the key is to stop the horse (or half horse) before it has left the barn and prevent Covid-19 surges before they occur.

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New BA.2.75 Omicron Subvariant: Heres The Centaurus Covid-19 Coronavirus - Forbes