Michigans surge put COVID-19 vaccines to the test. They passed with flying colors. – MLive.com

May 15, 2021

Heres a silver lining of Michigans recent COVID-19 surge: We became Americas test bunny for the nations COVID-19 vaccines and how they perform in a surge propelled by the B.1.1.7. variant.

And, in fact, the vaccines held up very, very well, Michigan health experts say.

Exceedingly well, said Linda Vail, head of the Ingham County Health Department.

Really remarkable, said Ryan Malosh, a University of Michigan epidemiologist.

Its an incredible feat that we have the vaccines and they work as well as they do, said Josh Petrie, another U-M epidemiologist.

Experts cite numerous examples of the vaccines effectiveness.

Michigans nursing homes and prisons, two settings that experienced the worst COVID-19 outbreaks in 2020, saw cases plummet this spring after residents in each were prioritized for vaccinations.

The proportion of cases and hospitalizations among senior citizens dropped significantly, a result of high vaccination rates for that age group.

Among younger age groups, the proportion of cases dropped for each age cohort as their vaccination rates improved.

Its really exciting to see the numbers, said Dr. Jennifer Morse, medical director for 19 counties in northern Michigan. You cant necessarily prove cause and effect but it is really hard to find another reason (for those trends). So its very encouraging.

To say the vaccines have exceeded expectations would be an understatement, said Dr. Liam Sullivan, a Grand Rapids infectious disease specialist with Spectrum Health.

Thats particularly true considering expectations dating back to a year ago, when scientists were hoping for quick development of a vaccine that was at least 50% effective in preventing severe disease, Sullivan said.

Most people thought, OK, were probably going to get in the 60%, 65%, 75% range, and well be ecstatic if we get that, Sullivan said. Then when the mRNA clinical trials came out and both were the mid-90s, everybody was just completely blown away by that.

The next thing was, OK, how are they going to work in the real world? Because sometimes you take something out of the clinical trial, and then you go into the real work and things change, Sullivan said. But were now seeing studies that say the effectiveness is still above 90% in the real world.

So these vaccines have exceeded our expectations by leaps and bounds, Sullivan said. They are phenomenal scientific achievements, and I think its safe to say that they have completely changed the face of vaccine technology going forward.

Marcus Cheatham, head of the Mid-Michigan District Health Department, which includes Clinton, Gratiot and Montcalm counties, noted that the vaccines even held up against the surprises that came along, such as the B.1.1.7. variant thats become dominant in Michigan, he said.

Malosh makes a similar point.

I study influenza vaccines for a living, Malosh said, and 50% effectiveness is pretty good for flu vaccines. To have 95% effectiveness, even 80% after one dose, plus pretty good effectiveness against drifted strains and variants -- that kind of stuff doesnt happen with flu vaccines.

To get vaccines that are effective and safe in this amount of time -- it hadnt been done before, he said. This is really changing whats possible in terms of vaccine approvals and licensure and evaluation.

Yes, we know that COVID-19 vaccines are safe. Heres why.

Real-world examples

The numbers tell the story on the vaccines effectiveness, experts say.

The most dramatic example has been Michigans nursing homes.

In 2020, the states long-term care facilities reported 21,400 COVID-19 cases and almost 4,900 deaths among residents.

Vaccinations in nursing homes began the last week of December. Its estimated that about 80% of residents agreed to be vaccinated.

By mid-March, cases had fallen 96% and deaths by 99% compared to the beginning of January, according to the Health Care Association of Michigan, which represents nursing-home operators.

Even during the statewide surge in April, case counts at nursing homes stayed low -- peaking at 15 new cases a day compared to 210 cases a day at the height of the fall surge. In past four weeks, 52 nursing homes residents have died from COVID-19. That compares to more than 1,900 in December.

Its like a miracle, says Melissa Samuel, CEO and president of HCAM.

COVID-19 cases in Michigan nursing homes drop 96%, deaths drop 99% since late December

Theres a similar story among Michigan prisons. Like nursing homes, the congregate living situation in correctional facilities means that COVID-19 can spread like wildfire.

In December during the fall surge, the Michigan Department of Corrections reported 8,317 coronavirus cases and 36 deaths.

Since then, 60% of inmates have agreed to be vaccinated. In April, there were 525 cases and four deaths reported by MDOC, thats 94% drop in cases compared to December and a 89% decline in deaths.

While an increase in the number of people with natural immunity may have been a factor in both nursing homes and prisons experts note that previous outbreaks didnt seem to lessen the impact of the surge in December. They also note that both prisons and nursing homes dont have static populations -- there is constant turnover in both settings.

I think you can attribute the drastic decline in cases to vaccination, Malosh said.

Both of those examples should tell you something, he added. One is that the vaccines really do work. Another is we can get back to achieving something approximate to normal if we can get a high enough proportion of people vaccinated.

Another sign that vaccines work: The drop in cases and deaths among Michigan senior citizens, the age group first given broad access to vaccines.

During the 12 months of the pandemic, those 70 and older comprised 12% of COVID cases in Michigan. By April, that dropped to 5%.

And even as the B.1.1.7. variant spiked cases among younger adults and children to record highs in Michigan during April, cases dropped among those 60 and older compared to December. Moreover, the degree of change by age cohort follows the trendline of vaccinations by age.

Source: Michigan Department of Health and Human Services

Deaths also plunged among senior citizens in the recent surge compared to December. There were 961 COVID-19 deaths in April among among Michiganders age 70 and older; a 64% drop from the 2,657 in December.

Incidentally, experts say that if Michiganders want to see the impact that widespread vaccination can have the general population, they should look to Israel, a country with about the same population as Michigan.

In mid-January, Israel was averaging more than 8,400 new cases a day, higher than Michigans peak seven-day average. Since then, Israel has vaccinated 60% of their total population. They are now averaging 43 cases a day, and no longer have a mask mandate.

As of May 12, Michigan was averaging 2,139 new cases a day. About 45% of the total population, which includes children, are now partially vaccinated and 35% are fully vaccinated.

Breakthrough cases

While experts say they are impressed by the effectiveness of the vaccines, they are not perfect.

No vaccine is 100% effective. The 95% efficacy rate of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines means that an unvaccinated individual is 19 times more likely to get symptomatic COVID-19 compared to a vaccinated person with the same exposure to the virus.

Michigan health officials have been tracking breakthrough cases involving fully immunized people. Breakthrough cases are defined as confirmed COVID-19 occurring in people two weeks beyond their second dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine or their single shot of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

Michigans latest numbers as of May 4:

Breakthrough cases, hospitalizations and deaths were expected, health officials say. But the relatively low numbers during a surge in which a more contagious and lethal variant took hold is considered highly encouraging.

Vail said its likely that as investigators look closely at cases in which fully immunized people were hospitalized or died, youd find a good number of people who already were quite ill.

Most of the breakthrough cases that we know about are very, very mild cases, she said.

New technology

The effectiveness of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is attributed to a new vaccine technology thats been under development for a decade, but never before deployed.

To trigger an immune response, most vaccines put a weakened or inactivated germ into our bodies. The mRNA vaccines take a different approach. They get our bodies to produce a protein that is part of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. That creates an immune response which protects us from getting infected if the real virus enters our bodies.

The vaccines do not contain any virus, so it cannot give individuals COVID-19. It does not and cannot change your DNA in any way. And, in fact, whats injected breaks fast down and leaves the body within 24 to 48 hours, Sullivan said.

While doctors and other medical experts are thrilled that a safe and highly effective vaccine is now available, theyre disheartened by various disinformation campaigns that have made people hesitant to get inoculated.

Even though millions of people have been vaccinated in the U.S. and its clear that the vaccines are both safe and effective, theres an organized campaign by a small number to persuade others not to get vaccinated, Cheatham said. And theyre having some success in undermining what we need to do to protect folks.

I think is a huge problem and we have to really take it on as a matter of urgent public policy, he said.

Morse said its clear that the vaccines work and that theyre safe.

The wait and see period is over, she said. I am frustrated there is so much hesitancy. ... (The data) is just extremely encouraging and promising, and we would hope it would encourage more and more people to get vaccinated.

Privacy Overview

Strictly Necessary Cookies