Map of States With The Highest COVID Rates 2024 And What to Expect Rest of Summer – TODAY

The United States is in the midst of a summer wave of COVID-19 fueled by highly contagious, new variants sweeping the country from coast to coast. As summer travel peaks, experts are warning people to take precautions to stop the spread, no matter the COVID rates in your state.

Currently, levels of COVID found in wastewater are considered high nationally, for the first time since last winter. What's more, 36 states have "high" or "very high" levels individually, according to the latest data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The West and Southeast are being hit especially hard.

"This years summer COVID-19 wave is coming earlier than last year, which occurred in late August and early September," a CDC spokesperson tells TODAY.com.

Cases may keep rising through the rest of the year, according to Michael Hoerger, Ph.D., assistant professor at Tulane University School of Medicine who leads thePandemic Mitigation Collaboratives data tracker. His models show the current wave is likely to peak on Sept. 11 at around 1.2 million new cases a day. (He uses wastewater data from Biobot Analytics, which used to provide the CDC its data.)

"We're probably somewhere between a quarter of the way through the wave to 40%, 50%, if we're lucky," he tells TODAY.com, adding that this is the ninth COVID wave in the U.S.

The CDC no longer tracks the total number of new COVID-19 cases. Instead, the agency estimates the level of transmission using indicators such as test positivity, emergency department visits and wastewater surveillance. These show a clear surge in COVID-19 across the nation.

Currently, test positivity is at 12.6%, the highest it has been since the peak of the winter COVID-19 surge in January, per CDC data. COVID-related emergency room visits and hospitalizations are also climbing, but the rate of deaths remains stable nationally.

Levels are lower than the peak from this past winter and are at similar levels to the early fall peak in 2023," the CDC spokesperson says.

The current COVID-19 trends in the U.S. appear to be the start of an expected summer "bump," Dr. William Schaffner, professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, tells TODAY.com. "Unlike influenza, which essentially disappears during the summertime, COVID-19 never goes away."

COVID-19 has caused previous summer waves. People are traveling more and attending more social gatherings, which creates ample opportunities for highly contagious variants to spread, says Schaffner.

These include the fast-growing FLiRT variants KP.3, KP.2, and KP.1.1 and LB.1, which have spike protein mutations that make them better able to escape immunity compared to previous strains.

These mutated new variants, along with waning population immunity and poor uptake of the latest booster, are likely contributing to the rise in cases, TODAY.com previously reported.

COVID is increasing all over the country, says Schaffner.

According to wastewater data, states with the highest COVID rates are in the West, but it's also spiking in the Southeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions, per the latest CDC data.

(COVID) is up everywhere. Its not as though you could go to a state and avoid this increase. Its just that the increase is more prominent in some parts of the country than others, Schaffner notes.

Hoerger similarly stresses that the wave is national and discourages getting too focused on local COVID trends. "I think people should just be increasing precautions in general. ... I find it a bit trickier to know precisely what's happening locally," he adds.

Wastewater surveillance is used to measure COVID-19 trends and predict a rise in cases in a community. People infected with COVID can shed the virus in their stool even if they are asymptomatic or before they show symptoms which ends up in sewage. This method can help capture COVID levels without relying on testing or data from doctors offices and hospitals, according to the CDC.

Wastewater surveillance can serve as a more precise early warning sign than other measurements that COVID-19 is spiking or going down in a community, Hoerger says.

"If you see increased COVID-19 wastewater viral activity levels in your area, it might indicate that there is a higher risk of infection," the CDC spokesperson adds.

The CDC categorizes COVID-19 viral activity in wastewater into five levels: very high, high, moderate, low and minimal.

Wastewater activity levels are considered "very high" in the following states, including the District of Columbia, according to the latest data from the CDC as of July 25:

Wastewater viral activity levels are currently considered "high" in the following 14 states, as of July 25:

Another CDC map of test positivity by region shows that during the week ending on July 13, rates were highest in California, Nevada and Arizona. During the same week, COVID-related emergency room visits were highest in Florida and Hawaii, per CDC data.

The CDC also tracks where cases are growing and declining. The most recent data available show cases growing in 42 states, declining in zero and stable or uncertain in six.

"There are places that are rising earlier, and there are places that will pick up later, but that's what you would expect," Hoerger adds.

The symptoms of the COVID-19 variants driving the summer wave, including FLiRT strains and LB.1, are similar to those caused by earlier omicron subvariants.

Possible signs and symptoms of COVID-19, per the CDC, include:

The latest variants are highly contagious but do not appear to be producing more severe disease, experts say.

"These variants are spreading very, very widely (and) largely producing milder disease," says Schaffner. However, some people may still develop severe symptoms or require hospitalization.

"Since (the variants) are spreading so widely, they're also finding vulnerable people who are in the high-risk groups," says Schaffner. These include people ages 65 and older, individuals with underlying medical conditions, and those who are immune-compromised.

High-risk individuals, as well as people who are not up to date on their vaccinations, "are the people at the moment who are being hospitalized,"says Schaffner.

If COVID-19 levels are very high, you should take steps to protect yourself and your family from illness, the CDC spokesperson says. However, anyone anywhere can take steps to protect themselves and others from COVID-19. According to the CDC, these include:

These actions are especially important for high-risk groups or people who are in close contact with high-risk individuals, says Schaffner.

"Every day of 2024 remaining is likely to have more transmission than today," Hoerger says. "So people should really be taking the rest of the year very seriously."

Caroline Kee is a health reporter at TODAY based in New York City.

Link:

Map of States With The Highest COVID Rates 2024 And What to Expect Rest of Summer - TODAY