Look for novel coronavirus treatments first, experts say, and vaccines are further off than you think – FiercePharma

What's the outlook for really fending off the novel coronavirus? Small molecule drugs and other therapeutics will obviously beat vaccines to market, and Gilead's remdesivir, if effective, could scale up fast, experts said.

Vaccines are likely further off than quoted timelines suggest. It's "overly optimistic"to expect them in 12 to 18 months, two opinion leaders told SVBLeerink analyst Geoffrey Porges.

They're"relatively optimistic" about Gilead's remdesivir "being effective and rapidly scaled to global demand for severe patients," the analyst wrote in a note to clients.

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Gilead has started phase 3 studies ofremdesivirin COVID-19 patients whilefederal health officials and others conducttheir own studies. WHO officials have said the drug, originally developed for Ebola,is the most promising treatment. In Japan, the drug was given to some American cruise ship passengerswho "were probably going to die in a short amount of time," an NIH doctor told the Wall Street Journal;none had died two weeks later.

Aside from that medicine, the expertsdon't believe existing HIV meds will be "viable therapies," Porges wrote. They do, however,seea rationale to explore whether ACE inhibitors orangiotensin receptor blockers could help fight the infection. The experts said a monoclonal antibody therapymight reach the market "even before a vaccine," Porges wrote.

Worldwide, the biopharma industry is responding to an outbreak that has spread to more than 100 countries. The novel coronavirus has infected more than 130,000 people and killed more than 4,900 as of Friday.The World Health Organization declared it a pandemic earlier this week.

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Aside from Gilead's virus-fighting work, Sanofi and Regeneron this week said they're gearing up to test arthritis med Kevzara in certain patients with severe disease. Chinas National Health Commission recommended Roche's Actemra for patients with serious lung damage earlier this month. Other drugmakers working on therapeutics or vaccines include Vir Biotechnology, Johnson & Johnson, Takeda, and many others.Eli Lillyjust entered a deal with AbCellera in a push to enter the clinic within four months.

Some government officials have said a vaccine could be available within 12 to 18 months, but the experts told Porges that's "overly optimistic." Moderna's novel vaccine has been prepared forphase 1 testing in record time, but as the MIT Technology Review reminded its readers, that platform is unproven. As for therapeutics, analysts have said Gilead could have remdesivir data to report yet this month, but they're unsure whether early trial results would be conclusive.

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Look for novel coronavirus treatments first, experts say, and vaccines are further off than you think - FiercePharma