Is Kentucky’s peak really April 23? Where the commonwealth stands on the coronavirus curve – Courier Journal

Courier Journal reporter Morgan Watkins hosted a Q&A with Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear to talk about the coronavirus and his administrations response. Louisville Courier Journal

Kentucky appears to be plateauing on the coronavirus curve, according to Gov. Andy Beshear, and while crushing the curve doesn't appear to be in the cards it looks like it's flattening.

Does that make sense?

If you've been paying attentionin the last six or so weeks, you probably understand at least a few of those words. The "curve" is a reference to the number of reported coronavirus cases per three-day average it rises early, as the virus spreads, then hits a peak and eventually declines as cases drop.

Kentucky, Beshear has said, appears to be through the rise and is now "plateauing," meaning the commonwealth is likely in or near the peak ahead of the drop. State officials have said Kentucky will be able to reopen after14 days of decreasing cases, an increase in testing capacity and a number of other factors, and many businesses should be able to open back up soon after.

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Our updating graph below puts Kentucky's curve in perspective, from when the first case in the state was confirmed on March 6 to now. The goal, Beshear has said, is to keep the curve from rising too fast for hospitals to be able to handle. The peak will last longer if the curve is flattened, but the lower number of cases at any given time will help keep the nation's health care system from being overwhelmed.

The curve is going to determine a lot about Kentucky's future, and when businesses and other places can reopen. Let's take a closer look.

Beshear believes the commonwealth's curve has flattened, and there are some encouraging signs. The numbers aren't dropping yet, but Kentucky is no longer seeing a major rise in cases in each three-day average.

The Bluegrass State, Beshear has said, looks like it's "plateauing." Which brings us to our next question...

A plateau is what the top of the curve looks like when it's flattened. An unflattened curve drops more quickly than a plateau but spikes much higher than a plateau and would overwhelm hospitals. A plateau is a longer period of little or no movement after that initial rise in cases, followed by a drop.

Michael Gough, chief operating officer ofNorton Healthcare, recently told The Courier Journal that Kentucky has been in a plateau "for the last 10 to 14 days" and could remain there for a few additional weeks.

It's almost impossible to pin down an exact date, and models have shifted throughout the pandemic. Predictionsfromthe University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which health officials backed in a recentThe Courier Journal story, projected Kentucky's peak could come Thursday, while other models have pointed toward later April or early May.

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New Zealand and South Korea have drawn some praise for "crushing" the curve the two nations implemented strict and heavy lockdown measures immediately after the first cases were confirmed and have since largely missed out on especially high death rates. (South Korea also used extensive contact tracing early to identify people who may have been exposed and aggressively tested potential coronavirus carriers.)

Kentucky, like everywhere else in the world, is at risk of being hit by a second wave until a vaccine is made available. Like the flu and common cold, case numbers could rise again when temperatures dip after the hot summer months, and relaxing social distancing guidelines too early before cases notably drop could also expose more people to the coronavirus.

Herd immunity has been brought up as a possible way to push through the pandemic. The phrase refers to the pointwhen a significant chunk of the population becomes immune to a disease or virus, stopping its spread because the number of people who can contract it is so much lower.

Herd immunity would likely overwhelm hospitals and would put many more lives at risk, though, health experts have said, and not enoughis known about the coronavirus to determine whether it would be effective.

Reporter Grace Schneider and USA TODAY's Molly Stellino contributed. Lucas Aulbach can be reached at laulbach@courier-journal.com, 502-582-4649 or on Twitter @LucasAulbach. Support strong local journalism and subscribe:www.courier-journal.com/lucasa.

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Is Kentucky's peak really April 23? Where the commonwealth stands on the coronavirus curve - Courier Journal