How to get a COVID-19 vaccine faster | TheHill – The Hill

A "New York Times:articlehighlights that 22 states are experiencing rapid increases in COVID-19 cases while reopening their economies. Although Texas, Florida, and Arizona have beenparticularly affected, the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota finds most of the country is in asimilar situation.

Escalating new cases have prompted many to prepare for future outbreaks. Restaurants across Phoenix, Ariz., arereclosingto prevent COVID-19 exposure. The Arizona Department of Health Services recently directed hospitalsto activate emergency plans, expandinghospital-bedcapacity for COVID-19 patients.

Others believe more drastic actions are required. Columbia University virologist Dr. Angela Rasmussenrecentlysaidthat "at least 4 states are going to need to reinstitute stay-home orders this weeklike NOWto stop upward case trajectories."

New York may soon become one of those states. New York Gov. Andrew CuomoAndrew CuomoVisitors from 31 states now required to quarantine when visiting New York, New Jersey, Connecticut Watch live: NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo holds press briefing Ice cream store manager in NY says he was fired for not serving customer coughing without mask MORE recently threatened to reinstate a lockdown for Manhattan and the Hamptons if citizens continued to (allegedly)violatesocial-distancing rules. In his ownwords, "Im not going to allow situations to existthat we know have a high likelihood of causing an increase in the virus.

Unfortunately, the only ways to end the pandemic are herd immunity, prolonged lockdowns, or the development of avaccine. Each option comes with its own downsides.

Herd immunity would likely require70 to 90 percentof the population to contract COVID-19,endangeringthe lives ofmillions withpreexisting conditions. Reinstituting widespread lockdowns would likely extenddepression-likeeconomic hardship and themental tollof prolonged isolation.

Developing avaccine, although much less invasive than the other options, will requirepioneering medical breakthroughs at record speed.

Hoping to beat the odds, President TrumpDonald John TrumpMore than a dozen people wounded in shooting near Chicago funeral home Cleveland Indians players meet with team leadership to discuss potential name change Pelosi calls coronavirus the 'Trump virus' MORE launchedOperation Warp Speedlast May. The operation creates apartnershipbetween private drug developers and several federal agencies to develop and distribute avaccineby January.

Having considered14 different drugdevelopers, Operation Warp Speed recentlyselected five finalistsfor its partnership. Sparing no expense, it has distributed over$2 billionin R&D funds to these producers.

But why only five?

Even the most promising potentialvaccinesarejust beginningthe large-sample human-testingvaccineapproval process, the most time-consuming and difficult component. With over100vaccinesunder development, there are a variety of options to diversify the risk for finalists that do not receive approval.

Evidence indicates that including more drug developers would provide us with the highest chance to get avaccine. A model created byAccelerated Health Technologiespredicts that a candidate pool of15-20vaccineswould have an 80-to-90 percent chance for one to succeed.

Perhaps more important, providing a few producers with extensive financial support is no substitute for the collaboration among a diverse set of researchers that is often required to make a medicinal breakthrough. In his book "TheOrganization of Inquiry,"economist Gordon Tullock stressed that the scientific field closely resembles thedivision of labor, where a large network of scientists collaborates directly or indirectly by working on narrow aspects of a larger puzzle.

Similar collaboration has brought us pathbreakingvaccinedevelopment before.

From 2014 to 2016 the Ebola virus rapidly spread through western Africa, where it caused over11,000 deaths. Similar to COVID-19, Ebola was difficult to contain and exceptionallydifficultto develop avaccinefor.

Despite the odds, scientists, public-health experts, and drug producers indirectly collaborated across the globe to create a "miracle"vaccinewithin a year. As one "STAT"articlenotes:

While thevaccinehas come to be known as Mercks Ebolavaccine, in reality, scores of researchers and Ebola outbreak response workers in Canada, the U.S., Europe, and Africa played a role in paving Ervebos path to licensure, whether that was in designing it, conducting pivotal pre-clinical studies in animals, or the clinical trials Merck used to support its application.

Our best hope to develop a COVID-19vaccinequickly is to allow drug developers to employ a diverse set of approaches and let the scientific method dictate solutions. Unfortunately, I fear Operation Warp Speed undermines this approach with government-selected winners and losers, which decreases the chances of success. Heres hoping Im wrong.

Raymond J.Marchis a research fellow and director of FDAReview.org at theIndependent Instituteand an assistant professor of agribusiness and applied economics and faculty fellow in the Center for the Study of Public Choice and Private Enterprise at North Dakota State University.

The rest is here:

How to get a COVID-19 vaccine faster | TheHill - The Hill