How Effective Does a Coronavirus Vaccine Need to Be? – The Atlantic

Instead, we are waiting to see whether people are infected organically. This takes time. The longer that trials go on, the more valuable the results. But even if a trial lasted five years, the results wouldnt account for every possible long-term, real-world condition. The process can give only a window into whats likely to happen when billions of people take the product. But do not expect a vaccine to give you 100 percent certainty of protection.

Read: America is running low on a crucial resource for COVID-19 vaccines

Still, if everyone in a population takes a vaccine that is, say, 70 percent effective, the effects add up quickly. The result is a population that is protectedand that more quickly achieves herd immunity than a population with a less effective vaccine. Occasional cases of COVID-19 might arise, but enough people will not contract the virus to prevent widespread outbreaks. When Anthony Fauci, the head of the National Institutes of Allergies and Infectious Diseases, mentioned the possibility of a vaccine being 50 percent effective, he wasnt saying it as though the vaccine would be a failure. He was saying he would consider it a successan intervention worth using, and better than nothing. Though, his hope would be to start with a product thats somewhere closer to 75 percent effective.

No matter how effective the coronavirus vaccines prove to be, their overall impact will ultimately depend on how many people take them. That means how many people have access to them globally, as well as how many people consent to taking them. In a Pew Research Center poll out this week, only 21 percent of Americans surveyed said they would definitely take a vaccine if it were available now. This rate is half of what it was in May, and has decreased in step with the presidents unsubstantiated and impossible claims about a vaccine being widely available before the election. People will rightly require transparency and rigor from their politicians and public-health officials if a vaccine is to be widely trusted and used. The most valuable thing that any population can have in a pandemic is clear, accurate information. Without this, even a mythical, perfectly effective vaccine could fail to stop the pandemic.

Paging Dr. Hamblin is for informational purposes only, does not constitute medical advice, and is not a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. Always seek the advice of your physician or other qualified health provider with any questions you may have regarding a medical condition. By submitting a letter, you are agreeing to let The Atlantic use itin part or in fulland we may edit it for length and/or clarity.

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How Effective Does a Coronavirus Vaccine Need to Be? - The Atlantic