How Bad Will The COVID-19 Coronavirus Epidemic Get In The U.S.? Health Experts Weigh In – Forbes

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In the U.S., there have been more than 3,200 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and over 60 deaths, according to estimates from Johns Hopkins University. Limited initial availability of diagnostic tests mean that the numbers are likely far higher than that.

So how bad might the COVID-19 outbreak get in the United States, and what measures are needed to contain it? We reviewed statements from government health officials and surveyed infectious disease experts to forecast the coming weeks. Heres what we found.

A lack of testing makes it impossible to estimate how many people in the U.S. might become infected.

Right now, there simply isnt enough data to make a realistic prediction of how many people in the U.S. might eventually contract the new coronavirus. I do not know and cannot even guess, Dr. Stanley Perlman, a microbiologist whose lab at the University of Iowa specializes in studying coronaviruses, told Forbes. One reason that data isnt enough is that not enough people in the U.S. have been tested for the disease. While other countries, such as South Korea, enacted systems to test a wide swathe of the public, the mechanisms for doing so dont exist in the U.S.. Were not set up for that, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) Director Dr. Tony Fauci said in Congressional testimony earlier in March. Do I think we should be? Yes. But were not.

Another point to consider, adds Dr. Andrew Pekosz, a virologist at Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health (JHU-SPH), is that the United States is a big country. But unlike China, U.S. outbreaks began at multiple times and places as people traveled from different exposed areas, spreading the disease through communities at different rates. As a result, he notes, Washingtons outbreak is several weeks ahead of outbreaks in Boston and New York Citys, which are in turn ahead of cities like Baltimore. We need to be prepared at the local level to respond to the situation and realize that different parts of the country will have peaks at different times.

The rate of infection appears to have peaked in countries like China and South Korea, but experts urge caution.

Countries where the COVID-19 coronavirus spread early, such as China and South Korea, are still seeing increases in the number of confirmed cases, according to the latest statistics from the World Health Organization, but the rate of infection appears to be decreasing. Epidemiologists are encouraged, but warn against being too optimistic as people limit contact with others, avoiding gatherings and working from home.

We dont yet know whether we will see transmission surge again when people return to normal life, says Dr. Steffanie Strathdee, Associate Dean of Global Health Sciences at UCSD and author of The Perfect Predator. We also dont know if people can become re-infected, or if people who appear to have recovered can still shed the virus, infecting others even though they are well.

Its also difficult to say how a leveling off of infections in China and South Korea translates for the U.S., given that the American response to the outbreak is markedly different from those two countries, Perlman adds.

Seniors are particularly at risk from COVID-19, but so are others.

The elderly is probably the population most at-risk of death, with the mortality rate for COVID-19 patients over 80 being estimated to be 15%. But other factors can increase risk, including compromised immune systems, heart disease, high blood pressure and respiratory issues. Obesity and smoking are other risk factors that I expect will increase the risk of serious complications, so its a good time to act on those New Year's resolutions, says Strathdee.

Social distancing should help slow disease spread, but there are nuances to the right approach.

Every expert we spoke to said that social distancing is a key to both slowing down rates of infection and preventing hospitals and doctors from being overwhelmed. Limiting large gatherings such as sporting events, theme parks and cruises are pretty easy calls. Other types of social distancing can involve more nuance, and their effectiveness might might depend on other circumstances.

Closing schools, says Dr. Rupali Limaye, a scientist at JHU-SPH, is one such example. If parents have to work and cant take care of their children, that may lead them to finding alternative child care that might not be ideal, increasing the risks of exposure to the disease in other ways.

On a similar note, Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of JHUs Center for Health Security, noted in a March 9 Twitter thread that while social distancing measures should be encouraged, lockdowns by force to contain COVID-19 are counterproductive. [T]he impact of forcible lockdown of city, state, region could cause people to lose confidence in govt, make provision of health care harder, cause major econ hardship, or be life threatening to some who lose access to food, medicine, clinic access, home care, he tweeted.

Imposing travel restrictions will do very little to limit the spread of COVID-19.

President Trump announced a 30-day travel ban from the European Union earlier this month, which was later extended to include the United Kingdom and Ireland. While theres some evidence that early travel restrictions against China may have slowed down the outbreak, most experts agree that new restrictions will not have an impact now. At this point, person to person transmission in communities is the biggest concern.

I think this policy was too late, too little, Limaye says. This would have been more useful if it had been implemented before the virus made it to the U.S.

Rather than worry about travel, experts suggest that government officials focus their attention on slowing the spread of disease locally. The example of other countries shows that strong public health efforts can be successful, says Pekosz, meaning that the U.S. still has a chance to curb the epidemic.

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How Bad Will The COVID-19 Coronavirus Epidemic Get In The U.S.? Health Experts Weigh In - Forbes