Dr. Jerry Kruse: Learning to live with COVID-19 – The State Journal-Register

Dr. Jerry Kruse| Special to The State Journal-Register

Like Dodgers southpaw Sandy Koufax, the wily SARS-CoV-2 keeps throwing us one curveball after another. New variants arise swiftly, and news from the worlds of epidemiology and immunology keeps us on the edge of our seats Ive worn out at least three chairs in the past two years.

But we have learned a lot through the COVID-19 pandemic. There is good evidence for the following statements: 1) This virus is here to stay.2) New COVID-19 mutations will continue to arise. 3) Significant naturally acquired immunity, vaccine-acquired immunity and hybrid immunity have developed in the U.S.4) Vaccine-acquired immunity and hybrid immunity offer substantial protection against the development of severe illness and death due to COVID-19 infections.5) The vaccines will be the major influence for policy decisions as we live with SARS-CoV-2.

Almost 60% of Americans have, at one time or another, been infected with COVID-19. How do we know that? The incidence of people infected with COVID-19 can be calculated because anti-N antibodies are produced in response to infection, but are not produced in response to COVID-19 vaccines.

Earlier column: Dr. Jerry Kruse: Treating everyone equitably takes effort, empathy

Researchers measured anti-N antibodies, and, in the CDC publication MMWR, reported a stunning rise in the percentage of Americans infected during the omicron surge last winter. For all age groups combined, the percentage of Americans infected with COVID-19 rose from 28% in September 2021 to 58% in February 2022. The breakdown by age revealed that infections have occurred in 75% of those age 0 to 17 years, 64% of those age 18 to 49, and 41% of those age 50 and above.

Many of those who had been infected had received COVID-19 vaccines either before or after the infection, thus conferring hybrid immunity. These data give us a better foundation for new pandemic policies.

Where does the pandemic stand now?New COVID-19 cases continue to rise in the U.S. In New York, the state with the highest rate of new infections, the new BA.2.12.1 omicron variant is dominant.However, while cases are rising in number, there is not yet a surge.

The rate of new infections in Illinois has more than doubled over the past five weeks. In the Springfield area, new cases rose from 6 to 27 per 100,000. Again, there has been no surge, just a gentle, though consistent, rise.

One piece of good news is from Champaign County, the county with the highest COVID activity in Illinois over the last few months.Three weeks ago, the number of new cases per 100,000 in Champaign County stood at 65.Today, that number is 50. A surge may have been averted. Vaccines plus boosters plus natural infection are seemingly keeping a damper on severe infections and death.

So, back to immunity. Infection-acquired immunity is often short lived. Hybrid immunity confers protection similar to that of vaccine-acquired immunity.

More: Dr. Jerry Kruse: Resolve to do everything you can to help yourself, others stay healthy

The efficacy of vaccinations and boosters was reported in recent issues of the Journal of the American Medical Association and the New England Journal of Medicine. The following statement, made in regard to efficacy for the prevention of death and serious illness, is a summary of the data in the two articles:This means that … the absolute effectiveness of two vaccine doses is 90%, and the absolute effectiveness of two doses plus a booster is 99 to 100%.

In other words, the initial vaccine series reduced death and severe illness by about 90% for the original strain and delta variants, and boosters reduced severe illness and death due to omicron variants even further, to more than 95%.

We are rapidly learning how to live with SARS-CoV-2 and the disease it produces, COVID-19. Weve whiffed on a few curve balls. Yogi Berra said it best, Its tough to make predictions, especially about the future. Its a bit easier now, with immunity on our side.

Jerry Kruse, MD, MSPH, is dean and provost, SIU School of Medicine andCEO, SIU Medicine.

Here is the original post:

Dr. Jerry Kruse: Learning to live with COVID-19 - The State Journal-Register