COVID-19 vaccines and testing: A timeline of whats next – TwinCities.com-Pioneer Press

As the days shorten and people come indoors, what should we expect as we head into our second COVID-19 autumn and winter?

Last year, Thanksgiving and Christmas triggered a pandemic spike. Over holiday season 2020, Californias daily case counts climbed as high as 54,000. In contrast, the state is now reporting about 5,500 new cases a day.

While nothing is certain, there is more optimism.Were in a much better place than we were last year, said UC San Francisco epidemiologist Dr. George Rutherford.

I think well see a small to moderate winter surge, Rutherford predicted. It wont be as pronounced as last winters pandemic but may mimic the smaller spike in cases experienced in August, he said.

Why? Theres growing immunity and several pending steps by federal authorities to fight the virus. While there are still pockets of unvaccinated people in the Bay Area, overall vaccination rates in some counties for residents 12 and up have surpassed 80%. Statewide, 71% of eligible Californians are fully vaccinated. This population-wide protection is expected to climb still higher once children are eligible to get shots.

Heres a look at what the months ahead will bring.

CHILDREN WILL START TO BE VACCINATED

On Thursday, Pfizer submitted clinical trial data to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to authorize emergency use of their vaccine for kids ages 5 to 11. Pfizers data shows that the vaccine is safe and triggers a robust strong immune response in kids.

The agency will meet on Oct. 26 to consider this plan suggesting we may see a decision and distribution of the vaccine for kids between Halloween and Thanksgiving.

The pediatric vaccine is not as straightforward as it sounds. It will hold one-third the dosage of the vaccine for older youth and adults, according to Pfizer. This likely requires dilution and perhaps a different formulation.

If successful, that move would help protect another 28 million Americans.

Its an important advance, said Rutherford. The number of COVID-19 hospitalizations is right up there with the worst of the childhood infectious diseases. We want to extend the existing technology not just to protect them from getting sick, but to prevent transmission.

WANING IMMUNITIES WILL GET A BOOST

Theres concern that as immunity levels in communities start to subside, there will be a new resurgence of cases. So far, only Pfizers vaccine has been authorized for booster doses. And its offered only to older and other vulnerable Americans, such as people with medical conditions or jobs that place them at higher risk of exposure. There are no imminent plans to expand the eligible population.

Americans are welcoming this third shot, according to new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. Of the 6.6 million shots given from Sept. 30 to Oct. 6, more than 2.6 million of them were booster shots, compared to 2 million first doses and 2 million second doses.

Next week, on Oct. 14 and 15, an FDA committee plans to discuss Moderna and J&J booster vaccines. If authorized, these vaccines may be offered to a narrower group of people than the Pfizer vaccine. Thats because overall immunity after the initial round of Moderna and J&J vaccines seems to hold up better over time than the Pfizer vaccine.

THERE WILL BE MORE MIXING-AND-MATCHING OF VACCINES

Also next week,the FDA committee plans to discuss whether people should be allowed to get a booster shot of a different vaccine than the one they originally received.

So-called mixing and matching of vaccines getting a first dose of Pfizer, followed by a second dose of Moderna is already used in Europe and other places, so it will likely be approved in the U.S. In fact, there have been recent studies suggesting that using two different vaccine technologies getting both the J&J and Pfizer vaccines, for instance may offer more vigorous protection than sticking with one type.

That could boost convenience. It could also assure better protection on university campuses, where a large number of Chinese and other international students have gotten the Sinovac or Sinopharm vaccines, which work less well than their foreign counterparts.

Pharmaceutical companies dont conduct mix-and-match clinical trials; they only research their own product. So the National Institutes of Health has structured a giant comparison study to help answer the mix-and-match question.

THERE WILL BE MORE TESTING

Earlier this year, we thought vaccinated people couldnt spread the virus. Thats changed.

For now, testing and knowing your status is going to be extremely important to keep businesses and schools running, said Dr. Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at Harvard Universitys Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases.

This past week, the FDA authorized a new COVID-19 home test that is expected to double the nations limited supply of non-prescription tests. The FDAs emergency use authorization of ACON Laboratories Flowflex COVID-19 home test means that tens of millions of additional tests will soon be available. While the consumer price is not yet known, large retailers such as Walmart, Amazon and Kroger have agreed to sell at-home tests at the cost they pay for them.

Production could double to 200 million monthly tests by February, according to the FDA. That could be enough to supply the schools and companies who carry out President Bidens vaccinate-or-test mandate for businesses with 100 or more employees.

Its important to test yourself promptly before traveling or attending an event, said Mina. Currently, many places allow testing up to three days before.

Thats like going through a TSA security checkpoint at the airport and then being allowed to go back home for three days and repack your bags, he said. Then when you come back, you dont have to go through security again. Thats not a good way to screen.

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COVID-19 vaccines and testing: A timeline of whats next - TwinCities.com-Pioneer Press