Covid-19 Tracker: The long way down – Mission Local

Good morning, Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid-19 data dump.

With a long way to go, hospitalizations, positivity rates and recorded infections continue trending downward while recent R Number models show San Francisco well below 1.

Through most of 2020 and into 2021, lockdowns, masking and other public health non-pharmaceutical interventions were predicated upon protecting hospitals from getting overwhelmed. Has the experience of the past two years changed matters? It does not appear so. Wealthier hospitals with the capacity to take patients from safety net and rural hospitals crushed by Covidarent incentivizedto do so. It makes more sense for them to keep more lucrative elective surgeries and other procedures going.

In San Francisco, we are lucky to have UCSF, one of the best hospitals in the country with a core of outstanding doctors and healthcare workers which treats most local covid patients. It seems very likely that the relatively low number of covid-related deaths in SF is due in part to the outstanding work of UCSF, which has also generously lent its expertise to San Franciscos Department of Public Health.

Yet we know next to nothing about how UCSF operates, even less about the Citys for-profit hospitals, and much less what has learned over the past two years and what changes need to be made. Unfortunately, instead of leading a community-wide discussion on our hospitals, one of the countrys (worlds?) leading hospitalists regularly tweets about individual risk-taking.

In any case, Indivdual risk evaluations like these can be problematic.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has released a new report on 2 dose and 3 dose effectiveness of mRNA vaccines. Perhaps this report was prompted by criticism that the agency has withheld critical data on boosters, hospitalizations and, until recently, wastewater analyses. As the article points out, timely data on hospitalizations by age and race would help . . . identify and help the populations at highest risk.

Update on the Fourth Shot. Some say it wont be necessary. The UK is now offering a fourth shot to those over 75 and those who are immunocompromised. What will happen in the U.S. this fall when Big Pharma has a new vaccine ready?

Multiple vaccine doses and annual boosters are not uncommon.

Heres a critical review of the Biden Administrations first year in response to the virus. It reminds me of the title of the Joan Didion book, The Year of Magical Thinking.

Scroll down for todays covid numbers.

As of Feb. 20, DPH reports 782,785 residents have been vaccinated, more than89 percent of all San Francisco residents have received one dose, and over 83 percenthave received two. For residents 5 and older, DPH reports the figures rise above 90 percent and above 87 percent while for those 65 and older over 90 percent have received two doses. SFDPH reports that as of Feb. 20, approximately 467,833 SF residents (65 percent of all residents, 82 percent of residents 65 and older) have received a COVID-19 booster dose.

For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit ourVaccination Page.

On Feb. 17, DPH reports there were 138 covid hospitalizations,or about15.7 covid hospitalizations per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population). ICU patients have dropped to their lowest level since Jan. 8. Today, the California Department of Public Health reports 133 covid patients in SF hospitals and 26 ICU patients. Much like the CDC, DPH does not make public information as to vaxxed and unvaxxed hospitalizations nor any demographic data whatsoever making it impossible for the public to know the degree to which populations and neighborhoods have been affected.

The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital with 25 covid patients and 6 ICU beds available, while across the Mission, CPMC had 20 covid patients and 2 ICU beds available. Of 225 reported covid patients,96 were at either SFGH or UCSF, with at least 67 ICU beds available among reporting hospitals (which does not include the Veterans Administration). The California DPH currently reports 79 ICU beds available in San Francisco. Note: The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has issued a scathing report for sustained public health crisis failures at HHS. The failures cited include collecting and analyzing data to inform decisionmaking.

Omicron revived SFs normal pandemic pattern, hitting the lower socioeconomic sectors of the City the hardest. Between Dec. 18 and Feb. 16, DPH recorded 4406 new infections among Mission residents or 750 new infections per 10,000 residents. Bayview Hunters Point had the highest number of recorded new infections (4621) with a rate of 1219 new infections per 10,000 residents. Of 38 neighborhoods, 14 had rates above 700 per 10,000 residents, 13 in the east and southeast sectors of the City. Seacliff had the lowest rate with 383 new infections per 10,000 residents and Lakeshore, the only neighborhood in the City with a vaccination rate below 50 percent, had the second-lowest rate at 433 new infections per 10,000 residents.

DPH reports on Feb. 13, the 7-day average of daily new infections recorded in the City dropped to 256 or approximately 29.2 new infections per day per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population). According to DPH, the 7-day average infection rate among vaccinated residents was 26.1 per 100,000 fully vaccinated residents and 62.8 per 100,000 unvaccinated residents. It is unclear whether fully vaccinated includes boosters or the infection rate among those vaccinated with 2 doses.

As of Feb. 16., DPH reports Asians had 1,272 newly recorded infections in Februrary or28.5 percentof the months total so far; Whites had 1,041 or 23.3 percent; Latinxs had 736 or 16.5 percent; Blacks had 271 or 6.1 percent; Multi-racials had 62 or 1.4 percent; Pacific Islanders had 31 or .7 percent; and Native Americans had 8 newly recorded infections or .2 percent of the Februrary total so far.

As of Feb. 16, DPH reports that so far in Februrary San Franciscos Latinx residents have had a positivity rate of 7.7 percent, ; Multi-racials 7.7 percent; Blacks 7.4 percent; Asians 6.5 percent; Native American 6.2 percent; Pacific Islanders 6.1 percent; and White San Franciscans have had a February positivity rate so far of 4.9 percent.

Another covid-related death has been recorded in Februrary. There have been 69 covid-related deaths since the beginning of the year. Probably most are related to omicron. DPH wont say how many were vaxxed and how many unvaxxed. Nor does it provide information on the race/ethnicity or socio-economic status of those who have recently died. Note: According to DPH, the highest monthly SF covid-related death total was 165, recorded in January 2021. According to DPH COVID-19 deaths are suspected to be associated with COVID-19. This means COVID-19 is listed as a cause of death or significant condition on the death certificate. Using a phrase like suspected to be associated with indicates the difficulty in determining a covid death. The ambiguity is heightened when currently it is unknown whether or not 34.5 percent of the deaths had one or more underlying conditions. As of Feb. 16, DPH continues to report only 21 of the 762 deaths are known to have had no underlying conditions, or comorbidities.

Covid R Estimation has not updated its San Francisco R Number since Feb. 8. It is still at 1.07. I will try to find out why the delay. On Feb. 19, it estimates the California R Number at a remarkably low .39. The ensemble lowered its average San Francisco R Number to .67 and slightly raised its average California R Number to .57. All ensemble models currrently reporting estimate the SF R Number well below 1.

As of Feb. 16, DPH reports San Franciscans aged 0-4 had 192 newly recorded infections or 4.3 percent of the Februrary total so far; 5-11 had 300 or 6.7 perecnt, 12-17 had 184 or 4.1 percent, 18-20 had 110 or 2.5 percent, 21-24 had 276 or 6.2 percent, 25-29 had 501 or 11.2 percent, 30-39 had 979 or 22 percent, 40-49 had 605 or 13.6 percent, 50-59 had 507 or 11.4 percent, 60-69 had 424 or 9.5 percent, 70-79 had 207 or 4.6 percent, and those San Franciscans 80+ had 170 newly recorded infections or 3.8 percent of the Februrary total so far.

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Covid-19 Tracker: The long way down - Mission Local