COVID-19 to Follow Seasonal Pattern Similar to Influenza, Peaking in Colder Months: Study | Weather.com – The Weather Channel

Coronavirus By IANS 6 hours ago TWC India

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According to a study, SARS-CoV-2 is likely to follow a seasonal pattern similar to influenza, with the highest rates of infection occurring in colder months in the northern hemisphere and subsiding in summer. As COVID-19 becomes an endemic disease, scientists are attempting to predict the timing of future surges in infections.

"Having some idea of when we'll have surges in the future is important for public health policy and decision-making," said Jeffrey Townsend, Professor of Biostatistics and Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, at Yale University in the US.

"Late fall, winter, and early spring are the highest-risk times for surges of infection," he added.

The research published in the journal mBio can aid clinics and hospitals in preparing for a large number of COVID-19 patients. This prior knowledge is particularly essential since other respiratory viruses, such as influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), may be active at the same time, adding to the burden on healthcare systems.

To determine future seasonality and when SARS-CoV-2 will be most active, the researchers analysed monthly infection data of common-cold coronaviruses that are often attributed to causing colds. The studies conducted in Europe, East Asia, and North America from 1985 to 2020 had amassed viral samples from thousands of people. Using statistical methods, the team predicted that SARS-CoV-2 would surge in colder months, at least in the temperate places of the Northern Hemisphere they studied.

Nonetheless, the exact timing of the surges will differ by location. It is worth noting that these results apply only when COVID-19 becomes an endemic disease, which has yet to happen. However, most experts believe it is imminent.

Endemicity refers to the virus being steady in the population. The immune systems of the population have been exposed to the virus multiple times, and it spreads the same way every year without interventions. It is unclear how many years it will take to reach that point, but we may be almost there, or it could be another ten years.

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The above article has been published from a wire agency with minimal modifications to the headline and text.

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COVID-19 to Follow Seasonal Pattern Similar to Influenza, Peaking in Colder Months: Study | Weather.com - The Weather Channel