COVID-19, a Chinese laboratory investigation, and the future of US-China relations – The Boston Globe

Poor Wuhan. Once known as a megacity on the make, now it always will be known as the birthplace of COVID-19. And it may be that the deadly disease that has so far killed more than 3.5 million globally, with nearly 595,000 US deaths and counting, didnt even come from Wuhan, according to the most fulsome World Health Organization study on the subject. That said, a number of respected scientists have challenged the findings of the study, including the World Health Organizations own director.

President Biden just stirred the pot on that origin story by publicly directing the US intelligence community to examine the hypothesis that the virus came from a Chinese laboratory. There may be sufficient evidence in the classified reporting to warrant more analysis, or Biden may just be trying to pressure the Chinese government to be more cooperative. Either way, its not such an outlandish suggestion, once removed from a racist framing. While many scientists who have studied the genetic structure of the virus believe its a natural pathogen, that doesnt preclude an accidental release of a coronavirus sample collected elsewhere in China and brought to a Wuhan lab for study. Such accidents do happen, including in the United States.

We are unlikely to know the truth any time soon, and maybe not ever. But its worth considering what it would mean for China and the growing US-China rivalry if it does turn out to be a lab accident.

As the saying goes, its not the crime (or the accident), but the cover-up thats the problem. If this were a lab incident, the Chinese government either has known that all along and concealed the information or impeded that discovery by blocking international investigators from collecting information, as the World Health Organization directors March 30 statement suggests. China, it seems, has something to hide whether its about the origins of the virus or force of habit is hard to say.

An October Pew Research Center poll suggests that the pandemic has lowered global public opinion of the Chinese government, which was not especially well liked before (neither is the United States, for that matter). A confirmation of a cover-up will certainly make that worse, as will a bigger global economic crisis, especially with Chinas economy being relatively unscathed. Aid, trade, and investment may mitigate that dislike, or it may be that countries will continue to accept Chinese investment without changing public opinion. One terrible consequence is discrimination and violence toward Chinese nationals and the Asian diaspora, with attacks on Asians rising worldwide, including in the United States.

Countries that have been heavily affected by the virus and economic fallout are especially unlikely to forgive the deliberate withholding of crucial information. That is particularly true of India, which is now setting grim records every day for numbers of infections and deaths. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, previously unsinkable, is taking a hit for his mismanagement and mixed signals, and he may well be interested in shifting the blame. China would make a handy scapegoat, given the long history of enmity between the two nations, which spilled over in border clashes again last year and may again this year.

On some level, it will come as little surprise if the Chinese government withheld information and misled investigators. Its what authoritarian governments do. And while democratic governments also try to hide embarrassing or damning information, they tend to be more porous and not great at keeping secrets. Whether its a deliberate embrace of transparency or part of the messiness of democracy, it adds up to a trust gap. The United States, historically, is more reliable, especially when it comes to bad news.

Trust will be a valuable commodity in the 21st-century competition for influence, given the spreading miasma of high tech and government-sponsored misinformation and disinformation. Of course, its not really a commodity its an intangible quality, one easily lost and hard to gain. Presidents who lie, crackpot conspiracy theories, and systemic discrimination have all been undermining Americas reliability. Even if the United States continues to squander its comparative advantage, though, it will be hard for China to close the trust gap.

The Chinese government does have two things going for it: presence and the win-win nature of trust. Given a choice between a vaccine produced by an American company and Chinas state-owned company Sinopharm, most countries are going to want the former. But if Sinopharm is all they can get, thats what they will take especially when its more affordable or free.

That may help build global trust in China, but is unlikely to matter if it turns out the government did conceal the origins of the virus. It gives China a strong motive to continue to hide that information or to misdirect investigators and dont be surprised if the Chinese government finds proof that frozen meat from the United States was the source of this outbreak. Theyve been laying the groundwork for that false narrative for some time, and while its ridiculous on its face, it may well work for the Chinese public. With many Americans believing the Chinese government deliberately released the virus and many Chinese believing the same of the United States, the rivalry between the two nations could enter an unstable and dangerous phase.

On the other hand, trust is not zero sum. If China should choose to be more forthcoming, it would not necessarily be a loss for the USs strategic position, but it could well be a gain for all nations.

Sharon E. Burke is the director of resource security for New America.

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COVID-19, a Chinese laboratory investigation, and the future of US-China relations - The Boston Globe