Coronavirus vaccine: When will it be ready? Everything we know so far – CNET

Experts are hopeful that a vaccine against the SARS-CoV-2 virus will become available sooner rather than later.

As the death toll from thecoronavirusnears300,000 worldwide, doctors and scientists are scrambling to develop multiplevaccines to stop the pandemic. But it's not a competition. It might actually require several different vaccines manufactured and distributed by different labs in order to effectively eradicate COVID-19 from the planet, according toDr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, who co-authored a paper about vaccines published May 11 in the journal Science.

Most health experts say that the virus won't stop spreading until 60% to 70% of the world'spopulation is immune. Others say the only way to reach that level of immunity without a monumental death toll is through vaccines. Such is the opinion of Carl T. Bergstrom, a biology professor at the University of Washington andNatalie Dean, an assistant professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida, in a joint editorial published in the New York Times.

There are currently over 100 vaccines reportedly under development, withseven reportedly already in clinical trialsearlier this month. That means there aremore scientists working harder and faster on finding a vaccine than ever before in the history of pandemics. But even if one or more of the vaccines now in the works turns out to be effective,the FDA approval process typically takes a year or longer.

Keep track of the coronavirus pandemic.

It's still too early to make predictions, but here's what we know so far about the race to develop a coronavirus vaccine that may help usher in an end to the current pandemic.

One more note before we get underway. This article is intended to be a resource to help you understand current coronavirus vaccine research. It isn't intended to serve as medical advice. If you're seeking more information about coronavirus testing,here's how to find a testing sitenear you (and here'sanother way for Apple Mapsusers). Here'show to know if you qualify for a testandwhy there aren't any coronavirus at-home test kitsyet. This story is updated frequently as new information comes to light.

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A vaccine is a medical treatment that protects you against a disease like the coronavirus or smallpox. For a deeper dive into how vaccines work, check outthis in-depth coronavirus treatment explainer by CNET's Science Editor Jackson Ryan. The short and sweet of it is that a vaccine tricks your body into thinking it's already had the disease, so your body's natural defense -- the immune system --builds antibodies against it. Then, if you were to become infected, your body would call upon the antibodies to fight the virus before you feel sick.

Vaccines typically take about10 to 15 years to develop. That's in part because any new medical treatment needs to be thoroughly tested for safety before it can be distributed to millions or billions of people. Themumps vaccine took four years, which is widely considered the fastest vaccine approval in the history of infectious disease.

This month, the FDA fast-tracked a vaccine developed by Massachusetts-based biotech company Moderna, which is currently in Phase 2 clinical trials. The fast track process expedites FDA approval by opening more lines of communication between developers and regulators. It also parses out the review process incrementally, so the lab doesn't have to complete and submit all sections of the application at once.

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This April, the White House began organizing "Operation Warp Speed," according to Bloomberg, a sort of coronavirus vaccine task force that has identified14 vaccine projectsthat it will focus on fast-tracking. The "Warp Speed" project itself,which the White House acknowledged during an April press briefing, has a stated goal of readying300 million doses of vaccineto be available by January 2021. That's a bit faster than the12- to 18-month estimated timeline proposed by Fauci, the NIAID director.

As of this writing there areover 100 vaccines under development in countries around the world, including the US, UK, Germany, Japan and China. Twelve are either already in clinical trials or starting in the next few months. Out of those 12, one particular standout seems to be Oxford University. Scientists there say their vaccinecould be ready by the fall of 2020.

Scientists from around the world are working toward developing a vaccine. So far 12 projects have either started or will soon start clinical trials.

Statistically, only about6% of vaccine candidates ever make it through to market, according to a Reuter's special report, and not just because they don't work. There's a whole litany of problems that could cancel even a promising candidate. Take, for example, what happened when scientists tried to develop a vaccine for SARS --it backfired and actually made people more susceptible to the disease. The same thing happened with avaccine for Dengue fever. To make matters worse, coronaviruses are a large class of viruses andso far there are no vaccines for any of them.

However, this particular coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, has some unique traits that may help researchers working on a vaccine. For example, some viruses, like the flu, mutate quickly and often, which is why there's a new flu vaccine every year. Early evidencesuggests that the coronavirus doesn't appear to do that. Althoughsome researchers have hypothesized that a more highly-contagious strain has recently developed, others aren't so sure. Either way, it's thought that the virus has not yet mutated significantly enough to disrupt vaccine development, nor is it expected to, though it's too soon to say for certain, and there are still many unknowns about the virus' behavior.

Rules and regulations vary by country, but, generally speaking, most industrialized nations have similar protocols for approving a vaccine. The following path is how vaccines are approved in the US under the Food and Drug Administration:

Until there's a vaccine, expect safety precautions like face masks and social distancing to be a part of everyday life.

The longer we go without a vaccine, the more likely focus will shift toward treatments, such as theexperimental antiviral drug remdesivir, which has reportedly shown promising results. With effective therapeutic treatments, many viruses that used to be fatal are no longer death sentences. Patients with HIV, for example, now can expect to enjoythe same life expectancyas non-HIV-positive individuals, thanks to tremendous advances in treatment.

Without a coronavirus vaccine, the road back to normal may be harder and longer, but not necessarily impossible.Coronavirus testing, includingantibody testing, andcontact tracingefforts would probably need to intensify.

Lockdown measures are alreadylifting slowly, althoughdepending on people's behavioral practicesand a potential resurgence of infections, cities and states may bring back certain quarantine measures, including requiringface masksandsocial distancing. Eventually, the global population may reach the 60% to 70% rate required forherd immunityto protect those who aren't immune.

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Coronavirus vaccine: When will it be ready? Everything we know so far - CNET