Ford temporarily halted production in Chicago plant because of COVID-19 cases MarketWatch
See original here:
Ford temporarily halted production in Chicago plant because of COVID-19 cases - MarketWatch
Donald Trump has reignited a controversy over the antimalarial drugs chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine after telling reporters he was taking the latter to protect himself against coronavirus. What do we know about these drugs?
Hydroxychloroquine, which Trump says he has been taking for about two weeks, was developed as an antimalarial but it is also used to treat conditions like lupus, an anti-immune disease, and arthritis, where it can help combat inflammation. It has been licensed for use in the US since the mid 1950s and is listed by the World Health Organization as an essential medicine.
Researchers have been interested in chloroquines as an anti-viral agent for some time. A study in Virology Journal in 2005 found that chloroquine inhibited the closely related Sars virus in primate cells in lab conditions.
However, evidence for the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine in recent human trials during the coronavirus pandemic has been at best inconclusive, with some suggestions that it could worsen the outcome of severe cases.
The WHO is looking at whether hydroxychloroquine could be an effective Covid-19 treatment, while the US National Institutes for Health is also running a clinical trial to establish whether the drug, administered together with the antibiotic azithromycin, can prevent hospitalisation and death from Covid-19.
In recent days, enthusiasm about hydroxychloroquine has been boosted by a study, which has yet to be peer-reviewed, that looked at the combination of hydroxychloroquine, the antibiotic azithromycin and zinc supplements.
It showed that patients who received the three-drug combination vs the two-drug combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin were 44% less likely to die than the second group. Joseph Rahimian, a co-author of the study, pointed out that the studys findings were limited to the possible promise of zinc, not of hydroxychloroquine.
In May, the British Medical Journal reported on a randomised (although still problematic) clinical trial in China that found little evidence hydroxychloroquine worked, with serious adverse events noted in two patients.
A second study reported in the BMJ last week on a French trial also concluded that hydroxychloroquine does not significantly reduce admission to intensive care or improve survival rates in patients hospitalised with pneumonia owing to Covid-19. Overall, 89% of those who received hydroxychloroquine survived after 21 days, compared with 91% in the control group.
The US Food and Drug Administration in a safety alert issued on 24 April warned that it had received reports that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine could have serious side-effects and that the drugs should be taken only under the close supervision of a doctor in a hospital setting or a clinical trial.
There are a number of side-effects. The most serious is that it can interfere with the rhythm of the heart. Other side-effects include headache, dizziness, nausea, vomiting, stomach pain, skin rash or itching or hair loss. Research published by the Mayo Clinic has suggested that off-label repurposing of drugs such as hydroxychloroquine could lead to drug-induced sudden cardiac death.
Although Trumps official physician has said he was in very good health at his last official checkup, the president is 73 and his recorded weight would put him in a BMI category of clinically obese.
Despite there being no conclusive body of evidence that it can be effective when used to prevent contracting coronavirus, the president apparently decided in conversation with the White House physician Sean P Conley that it was worth the risks.
After numerous discussions he and I had for and against the use of hydroxychloroquine we concluded the potential benefit from treatment outweighed the relative risks, Conley wrote.
It is probably worth pointing out that Conley, a naval doctor, trained initially as an osteopath and then in emergency medicine, serving as research director at Portsmouth Navy Department of Emergency Medicine prior to his assignment to the White House medical unit.
For his part, Trump, despite the FDA and other warnings, said: I think its good. Ive heard a lot of good stories. And if its not good, Ill tell you right. Im not going to get hurt by it. Its been around for 40 years.
Yes. Trump has a history of personally advocating for the use hydroxychloroquine, which he has described as a potential game-changer. Although it has been reported that Trump has a small stake in a French company that makes hydroxychloroquine via an investment fund, this seems to be about Trumps own hunches and his desire to be both proved right and protected against the disease.
On Monday, he also claimed lots of doctors were using the drug prophylactically and cited letters he had received from members of the public. As Paul Waldman, a columnist in the Washington Post, has suggested, this is more about Trumps psychology than anything else.
Trump compensates for his own insecurity by working to convince himself and everyone else that the experts dont know what theyre talking about, and he knows more than them about everything, Waldman has written.
Excerpt from:
Hydroxychloroquine, Trump and Covid-19: what you need to know - The Guardian
In an effort to increase testing for COVID-19 the federal and state governments are encouraging mass testing collection sites. Currently in Dare County, there have not been any sites selected for a federally assisted testing site, however, Dare County Department of Health & Human Services wants to provide community-based testing opportunities for our residents. Dare County has partnered with Macko Medical Laboratories out of Raleigh, NC to host drive-thru COVID-19 specimen collections in Dare County.
The first collection event will be held on Tuesday, May 26, starting at 1:30 p.m. at First Flight High School located at 100 Veterans Dr, Kill Devil Hills, NC 27948. Appointments are required. The event will be set up to provide a total of 200 tests. The Dare County Department of Health & Human Services will receive test results from Macko Medical Laboratories and call individuals to provide them of their results within 72 hours of the event.
This event is open to permanent residents of Dare County, ages 10 and older. This is not a free event, however, individuals with insurance will not incur any out of pocket cost as the COVID-19 test is completely covered, no deductible and no co-pays. All insurances cover the COVID-19 diagnostic test, including Medicaid and Medicare. Participants are required to bring a government-issued identification card and insurance card. Macko Medical Laboratories will work with anyone who is uninsured to assist with the cost of testing. More information will be provided to those without insurance when they call to register for an appointment.
Individuals who participate need to understand they are coming to a community-based testing site located in a public location and therefore patient privacy cannot be assured. All results will, however, be confidential. To schedule an appointment, please call 252.475.5008.
If you have symptoms of COVID-19, please call your healthcare providers office. Do not wait for this drive-thru testing opportunity to get tested. For more information on testing locations in Dare County please visit darenc.com/covidtesting.
PUBLIC NOTICE
Division of Waste Management, N. C. Department of Environmental QualityHazardous Waste Section
PUBLIC HEARING FOR DRAFT OPERATIONAL RENEWAL PERMITU.S. COAST GUARD BASE ELIZABETH CITY
This is to notify the public of the issuance by the N.C. Division of Waste Managements Hazardous Waste Section of a draft renewal operating permit for the U.S. Coast Guard Base Elizabeth City facility, located at 1664 Weeksville Road in Elizabeth City, North Carolina.
A public hearing will be held on Thursday, June 11, 2020, at 1:30 p.m. in the Pasquotank County Courthouse, located at 206 East Main Street in Elizabeth City. All attendees will have the opportunity to present five-minute oral statements regarding the draft renewal permit and/or to submit written comments and data. Written comments can also be sent during the public comment period of May 12, 2020 through June 26, 2020 to the following address:Julie Woosley, Hazardous Waste Section ChiefDivision of Waste Management, NCDEQMSC 1646Raleigh, NC 27699-1646
All data submitted by the applicant is part of the administrative record and available at https://deq.nc.gov/about/divisions/waste-management/laserfiche. Documents may be located by using the EPA ID# NCD2690308232 for the facility. The draft renewal permit and factsheet can also be found online at the following location: https://deq.nc.gov/news/events/public-notices-hearings.
A summary of the draft renewal permit follows: The U.S. Coast Guard Base Elizabeth City is granted a renewal operating permit for storage of hazardous wastes at a designated storage building. This permit contains requirements to be followed for storage of up to 6,750 gallons of hazardous waste. The renewal operating permit also requires the U.S. Coast Guard Support Center to remediate contamination resulting from past waste management activities at the facility.
All comments received during the public comment period or at the hearing will be considered in the decision regarding this renewal permit. Comments received after the public comment period ends will not be considered. The statutory authority for calling the permit hearing is G.S. 130A-294(f). Applicable state rules are found in the North Carolina Hazardous Waste Management Rules 15A NCAC 13A .0105, .0109, and .0113. These rules adopt the requirements of the Federal Resource Conservation and Recovery Act as amended by the Hazardous and Solid Waste Amendments of 1984.
Anyone desiring additional information may contact Mike Babuin at (919) 707-8211 or [emailprotected] or at the address listed above.
See the rest here:
Dare County announces COVID-19 drive thru testing - The Outer Banks Voice
New London A 52-year-old nurses aide working at Lawrence + Memorial Hospital has diedof COVID-19, the first reported death of a hospital staff member in southeastern Connecticut.
We have lost a fighter today. Elva Graveline was a (patient care assistant) here at the hospital on 5.2, as we know it as the COVID 19 unit, Connie Fields, president of the L+M health care workers union, wrote in an message to fellow hospital employees.
We need to fight for those that cant fight any longer. Elva was COVID-19 positive, Fields said.
L+M on Tuesday reported it had 20 COVID-19 patients at the hospital. It is unclear, however, how many of its staff members have contracted the virus. Details of Gravelines case were not immediately available.
We are devastated at the loss of one of our employees to the coronavirus. Any loss is one too many but one close to home is heartbreaking. We offer our sympathy and condolences to the family, said Fiona Phelan, a spokeswoman for L+M Hospital.
We encourage our staff to take advantage of the counseling resources available to them through the Employee Assistance Program,our spiritual care providers, the Chapel, and the Oasis Room, she said.
Fields was not immediately available to comment, but said in her message to hospital employees: I will not rest until L+M does right by us, the employees that are sacrificing their lives.
On May 13, staff at L+M participated in a Solemn Stand in Solidarity, a rally organized by the local health care workers union to support colleagues that the union says have been overwhelmed and lack personal protective equipment.
We have been begging since (March13) for safety for our members. Everyday Monday-Friday. To save pennies cost Elvas life, Fields wrote in her message. 'OUR LIVES MATTER no matter what L+M says. May 30th we will stand in solidarity for ELVA GRAVELINE, our sister.
A rally hosted by the four local AFT unions is scheduled for May 30 in New London, a call for the federal government to use the Defense Protection Act to immediately start manufacturing "sufficient PPE."
The longer we go without proper Personal Protective Equipment the longer the pandemic continues and the volume of deaths will continue to increase, a flier for the rally reads.
Graveline, from North Stonington, is a member of the AFT Local 5123, which represents between 700 and 800 employees at L+M, a group that includes nurses aides, phlebotomists, food service employees, cleaning staff and secretarial positions.
Terry Meadows, a field representative for AFT Connecticut, said the union has raised concerns about the safety of employees since March, when the coronavirus outbreak was still in the early stages.
This is going to extremely impact the fear and concern that is already out there on a daily basis - the continued anxiety that they are not fully protected with the proper PPE, Meadows said.
Read more from the original source:
The Day - L+M Hospital employee dies of COVID-19 - News from southeastern Connecticut - theday.com
Arizona is slowly reopening, but hospitals in the state continue to see severely ill COVID-19 patientsand providers are bracing for another surge.(Photo: Gilnature, Getty Images/iStockphoto)
Arizona is slowly reopening, but hospitals in the state continue to see severely ill COVID-19 patientsand providers are bracing for another surge.
Not only are health leaders preparing for a continuation of COVID-19 in Arizona and a possible surge of illness in the fall and winter, but they are also preparing for 2021, too.
Unless a vaccine is ready, more COVID-19 illnesses could show up next spring.
"My concern is that people might think that because the state is opening, that the virus has gone away. The virus is still here," said Dr. Marjorie Bessel, the chief clinical officer for Banner Health, which is the state's largest health system.
"We have more than 400 people hospitalized right now in our system who are either COVID positive or under suspicion. We have 100 people on ventilators in that same category. ... The threat of the pandemic will not substantially go away for some time."
A worst-case scenario would be we still have a lot of COVID-19 and we next year also have a very bad flu season. That can consume some of the same resources.
As of Tuesday, Arizona's total identifiedcases rose to14,566, and its tally of known deaths was 704.
There were 792 people hospitalized for suspected or confirmed COVID-19 statewide and that number has not been going down.
Twice last week the number of hospitalizations in Arizona broke the 800 mark the highest number since the state began publicly reporting hospitalizations April 9.
Some epidemiologists say the heat of summer could slow, though not stop the spread of the virus, only to have it come back in the fall.
Some predictions show a protracted first wave of illness, others show a secondary wave.
"There's a lot of uncertainty about what's going to happen. We're not out of this yet," said Dr. Keith Frey, chief medical officer for Dignity Health in Arizona, which operates six hospitals in the state.
"A worst-case scenario would be we still have a lot of COVID-19 and we next year also have a very bad flu season," he said. "That can consume some of the same resources."
As more residents return to normal lives, there could be a spike in hospitalizations in a month or two "if safe behaviors aren't practiced," says an op-ed signed this week by the chief medical officers for eight major hospital systems in Arizona.
"There will be a rise in cases because of relaxed social distancing," said Felicia Goodrum, a virologist in the Department of Immunobiology at the University of Arizona. "It's going to be interesting to see how the state responds to seeing that spike."
Here's what we know about a so-called "second wave" of COVID-19 in Arizona.
Arizona has a statewide surge line that aims to evenly distribute ill COVID-19 patients to hospitals across the state so that no single entity is overwhelmedand to ensure that equipment such as ventilators and intensive care beds are available to those who need them.
That means rival hospitals and hospital systems across the state that normally compete against one anotherare sharing patients.
The surge line has been in place since April 21, and has been funded for a year, said Frey who worked on developing the system with the state and other Arizona health leaders.
"This is going to run for weeks or months to get through this particular seasonal version of (COVID-19)," Frey said. "Depending on the timing and distribution of a vaccine sometime in 2021, we could have yet another round of this next winter and spring."
It's possible the surge line will go dormant for a period and reactivateif cases wane, he said.
A season of COVID-19 and flu could be "horrible," the UA's Goodrum said.
"They are two really bad respiratory pathogens," she said. "Regular flu season killed about 0.1% of people infected and COVID is killing at least .2%, so about twice that. So it's like a severe flu. Of course, we have no immunity to COVID. We don't even have ready antivirals. ... With COVID, there's so much we don't know, still."
An influx of patients ill with flu and respiratory syncytial virus, typical during late fall and winter months, could come at the same time hospitals are treating a second wave of patients ill with COVID-19, the illness caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, Banner Health's Bessel said.
Autoplay
Show Thumbnails
Show Captions
"One of the things that's of course on our radar screen now is the fall/winter season," she said.
If the second wave of illness were to come with COVID and create a "surge on top of a surge" during flu season, it would be a huge stress on the health care system.
One of the ways to prevent that scenario is encouraging the public to get their flu shots early, Bessel said.
Banner Health is working with the Arizona Department of Health Services on the messaging, which Bessel hopes will be broad and consistent, she said.
"Sometimes people don't always think about flu season until later, sometimes they put off getting their vaccine," she said. "We're going to be doing a big, early push on getting your influenza vaccine done."
Predicting a second wave is guesswork because much of it will depend on human behavior. But careful social distancing does not necessarily mean shutting down the economy.
Many health care experts say there's a need to balance health care strife with economic strife because a financial downturn can lead to bad health outcomes that go beyond the toll of COVID-19.
"People lose their jobs, they lose their health insurance and that absolutely has a negative effect on their health and therefore the health of our communities," Bessel said. "It is a balancing act as we reopen the state."
People lose their jobs, they lose their health insurance and that absolutely has a negative effect on their health and therefore the health of our communities.
At the same time, it's important that people maintain measures like physical distancing, frequent hand-washing, staying home when they are sick and wearing a mask, experts say. For how long? No one knows. But for now, it's what Arizonans should be doing, said Dr. Tara Ostrom, associate medical director for OptumCare Primary Care in Arizona.
"Wearing of masks is a show of compassion for each other and to protect people whose health may not be as good as your own," she said. "Not everybody is comfortable with doing that but it is an act of compassion toward senior citizens, toward that patient with cerebral palsy ... ."
There's no way to know whether any of us might be infected yet not showing symptoms. That's why we need to protect others, Ostrom said.
"In Arizona, we have increasing cases. Overall we don't have a cure and we don't have a vaccine," she said. "It's not going to be good if no one is wearing cloth masks, if large crowds are getting together, if there is no social distancing. ... A significant uptick of cases would be expected."
Moving forward, it's not just Arizonans who need to continue following safe hygiene practices, including social distancing, the UA's Goodrum said.
"This patchwork we have of states doing their own thing is going to work as long as people aren't traveling and, of course, that is not going to continue for all that much longer," she said.
"What happens when people begin traveling between states and worse, internationally? That's going to be interesting what happens then. That's why we need a federal response and we really don't have it."
The U.S. as a whole has been behind many other countries in its level of testing and Arizona remains behind the national testing level 3.61% of Americans had been tested as of Tuesday, according to the National Association of County and City Health Officials. In Arizona 2.3% of the population has been tested, the association's data showed.
The Kaiser Family Foundation as of Tuesday placed Arizona 49th out of 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico for its number of tests per 1,000 population. Arizona's number is 21.5. The national average is 36.1 with Rhode Island leading the list at 108.9.
"The problem is we still aren't doing enough testing to really address this in the way that we would typically address this type of public health crisis, which would be a lot of testing and contact tracing,"the UA's Goodrum said.
"Without that, we don't have data. ... In order to re-enter our normal life, you'd want to see a sustained drop in cases for two weeks. And that has not happened,"
A vaccine or significant treatment will change the trajectory of COVID-19, but we aren't there yet, Bessel said.
"We are not going to be there for many months to come," she said. "We may see a decrease in total cases as we go into summer. Perhaps with it being hot out and with Arizonans doing the right things, we can certainly try and reduce the burden of the virus."
Reach health care reporter Stephanie Innes at Stephanie.Innes@gannett.com or at 602-444-8369. Follow her on Twitter @stephanieinnes
Support local journalism.Subscribe to azcentral.com today.
Read or Share this story: https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/05/20/coronavirus-arizona-second-wave-of-covid-19-pandemic-what-we-know/5213987002/
Read more:
Will Arizona get hit by a second wave of COVID-19? Here's what we know - AZCentral
Artificial intelligencecouldplay adecisiverole in stopping the Covid-19 pandemic. To give the technology a push, the MIT-IBM Watson AI Lab is funding 10 projects at MIT aimed atadvancing AIs transformative potential for society. The research will target the immediate public health and economic challenges of this moment. But it could havealasting impact on how we evaluate and respond to risk long after the crisis has passed. The 10 research projects are highlightedbelow.
Early detection of sepsis in Covid-19 patients
Sepsis is a deadly complication of Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. About 10 percent of Covid-19 patients get sick with sepsis within a week of showing symptoms, but only about half survive.
Identifying patients at risk for sepsis can lead to earlier, more aggressive treatment and a better chance of survival. Early detection can also help hospitals prioritize intensive-care resources for their sickest patients. In a project led by MIT ProfessorDaniela Rus, researchers will develop a machine learning system to analyze images of patients white blood cells for signs of an activated immune response against sepsis.
Designing proteins to block SARS-CoV-2
Proteins are the basic building blocks of life, and with AI, researchers can explore and manipulate their structures to address longstanding problems. Take perishable food: The MIT-IBM Watson AI Labrecently used AIto discover that a silk protein made by honeybees could double as a coating for quick-to-rot foods to extend their shelf life.
In a related project led by MIT professorsBenedetto MarelliandMarkus Buehler, researchers will enlist the protein-folding method used in their honeybee-silk discovery to try to defeat the new coronavirus. Their goal is to design proteins able to block the virus from binding to human cells, and to synthesize and test their unique protein creations in the lab.
Saving lives while restarting the U.S. economy
Some states are reopening for business even as questions remain about how to protect those most vulnerable to the coronavirus. In a project led by MIT professorsDaron Acemoglu,Simon JohnsonandAsu Ozdaglarwill model the effects of targeted lockdowns on the economy and public health.
In arecent working paperco-authored by Acemoglu,Victor Chernozhukov, Ivan Werning, and Michael Whinston,MIT economists analyzed the relative risk of infection, hospitalization, and death for different age groups. When they compared uniform lockdown policies against those targeted to protect seniors, they found that a targeted approach could save more lives. Building on this work, researchers will consider how antigen tests and contact tracing apps can further reduce public health risks.
Which materials make the best face masks?
Massachusetts and six other states have ordered residents to wear face masks in public to limit the spread of coronavirus. But apart from the coveted N95 mask, which traps 95 percent of airborne particles 300 nanometers or larger, the effectiveness of many masks remains unclear due to a lack of standardized methods to evaluate them.
In a project led by MIT Associate ProfessorLydia Bourouiba, researchers are developing a rigorous set of methods to measure how well homemade and medical-grade masks do at blocking the tiny droplets of saliva and mucus expelled during normal breathing, coughs, or sneezes. The researchers will test materials worn alone and together, and in a variety of configurations and environmental conditions. Their methods and measurements will determine howwell materials protect mask wearers and the people around them.
Treating Covid-19 with repurposed drugs
As Covid-19s global death toll mounts, researchers are racing to find a cure among already-approved drugs. Machine learning can expedite screening by letting researchers quickly predict if promising candidates can hit their target.
In a project led by MIT Assistant ProfessorRafael Gomez-Bombarelli, researchers will represent molecules in three dimensions to see if this added spatial information can help to identify drugs most likely to be effective against the disease. They will use NASAs Ames and U.S. Department of Energys NSERC supercomputers to further speed the screening process.
A privacy-first approach to automated contact tracing
Smartphone data can help limit the spread of Covid-19 by identifying people who have come into contact with someone infected with the virus, and thus may have caught the infection themselves. But automated contact tracing also carries serious privacy risks.
Incollaborationwith MIT Lincoln Laboratory and others, MIT researchersRonald RivestandDaniel Weitznerwill use encrypted Bluetooth data to ensure personally identifiable information remains anonymous and secure.
Overcoming manufacturing and supply hurdles to provide global access to a coronavirus vaccine
A vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 would be a crucial turning point in the fight against Covid-19. Yet, its potential impact will be determined by the ability to rapidly and equitably distribute billions of doses globally.This is an unprecedented challenge in biomanufacturing.
In a project led by MIT professorsAnthony SinskeyandStacy Springs, researchers will build data-driven statistical models to evaluate tradeoffs in scaling the manufacture and supply of vaccine candidates. Questions include how much production capacity will need to be added, the impact of centralized versus distributed operations, and how to design strategies forfair vaccine distribution. The goal is to give decision-makers the evidenceneededto cost-effectivelyachieveglobalaccess.
Leveraging electronic medical records to find a treatment for Covid-19
Developed as a treatment for Ebola, the anti-viral drug remdesivir is now in clinical trials in the United States as a treatment for Covid-19. Similar efforts to repurpose already-approved drugs to treat or prevent the disease are underway.
In a project led by MIT professorsRoy Welschand Stan Finkelstein, researchers will use statistics, machine learning, and simulated clinical drug trials to find and test already-approved drugs as potential therapeutics against Covid-19. Researchers will sift through millions of electronic health records and medical claims for signals indicating that drugs used to fight chronic conditions like hypertension, diabetes, and gastric influx might also work against Covid-19 and other diseases.
Finding better ways to treat Covid-19 patients on ventilators
Troubled breathing from acute respiratory distress syndrome is one of the complications that brings Covid-19 patients to the ICU. There, life-saving machines help patients breathe by mechanically pumping oxygen into the lungs. But even as towns and cities lower their Covid-19 infections through social distancing, there remains a national shortage of mechanical ventilators and serious health risks of ventilation itself.
In collaboration with IBM researchers Zach Shahn and Daby Sow, MIT researchersLi-Wei LehmanandRoger Markwill develop an AI tool to help doctors find better ventilator settings for Covid-19 patients and decide how long to keep them on a machine. Shortened ventilator use can limit lung damage while freeing up machines for others.To build their models, researchers will draw on data from intensive-care patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome, as well as Covid-19 patients at a local Boston hospital.
Returning to normal via targeted lockdowns, personalized treatments, and mass testing
In a few short months, Covid-19 has devastated towns and cities around the world. Researchers are now piecing together the data to understand how government policies can limit new infections and deaths and how targeted policies might protect the most vulnerable.
In a project led by MIT ProfessorDimitris Bertsimas, researchers will study the effects of lockdowns and other measures meant to reduce new infections and deaths and prevent the health-care system from being swamped. In a second phase of the project, they will develop machine learning models to predict how vulnerable a given patient is to Covid-19, and what personalized treatments might be most effective. They will also develop an inexpensive, spectroscopy-based test for Covid-19 that can deliver results in minutes and pave the way for mass testing. The project will draw on clinical data from four hospitals in the United States and Europe, including Codogno Hospital, which reported Italys first infection.
Go here to read the rest:
Marshaling artificial intelligence in the fight against Covid-19 - MIT News
As weve learned, it takes just one person infected with Covid-19 to unleash chaos.
In Washington state, a person with the virus attended a choir practice, and more than half of the other singers subsequently got sick. In South Korea, a 29-year-old man went out to nightclubs; he was Covid-19 positive, and he has since been linked to at least 54 new cases. In China, nine people sitting in the path of an air-conditioning vent in a restaurant all got sick, most likely from one person, as the duct blew viral particles across their faces.
Small things could have changed these outcomes. The clubber could have decided to watch TV instead of going out dancing. If the choir practice was rescheduled for the next day, maybe the person would have felt sick and stayed home. The air-conditioner in the restaurant could have been turned off.
As Stephen Kissler, an infectious disease modeler, puts it, Little shifts can have really disproportionately sized impacts in a pandemic. And scientists have a name for systems that operate like this: chaos.
What Ive found, talking to scientists like Kissler, is that knowing that this pandemic is chaotic is one of the keys to understanding why the future is uncertain. But it can also help us appreciate why this uncertainty need not be so crippling.
Theres a simple mechanical that is helping me understand the many possible futures we face with the Covid-19 pandemic.
Its the double pendulum, and as a physical object, its very simple: A pendulum (a string and a weight) is attached to the bottom of another. Its movement is explained by the laws of motion written by Isaac Newton hundreds of years ago.
But slight changes in the initial condition of the pendulum say it starts its swing from a little higher up, or if the weight of the pendulum balls are a little heavier, or one of the pendulum arms is a bit longer than the other lead to wildly different outcomes that are very hard to predict.
The double pendulum is chaotic because the motion of the first pendulum influences the motion of the second, which then influences the entire apparatus. There isnt a simple scale or ratio to describe how the inputs relate to the outputs. A one-gram change to the weight of a pendulum ball can result in a very different swing pattern than a two-gram change.
It teaches us to understand the mechanics of a system the science of how it works without being able to precisely predict its future. It helps us visualize how something that seems like it should be linear and predictable just isnt.
The double pendulum shows us that simple systems arent simple at all. Complicated ones, then? God knows.
An outbreak isnt a double pendulum; its much more convoluted. Myriad chains of events, operating in overlapping networks, conspire to chart its course.
Thats why, when pressed, epidemiologists have to say they dont know whats going to happen.
Still, they know the mechanics of outbreaks. The chaos doesnt necessarily mean we know nothing, Kissler says. They understand the conditions that make an outbreak worse and the conditions that make it better.
There is a tough tension of the current moment that we all need to work through: The future is clouded in chaos, but we know the mechanics of this system. We know whats possible. Just as we know that, when pushed, pendulums swing, we can sense the direction the future of the Covid-19 pandemic is heading.
Here are the mechanics. Scientists know that if we let up on social distancing, without an alternative plan in place, the virus can infect more people. They know this virus is likely to persist for at least a few years without a vaccine. They know its very contagious. That its very deadly. They also know that its pandemic potential is hardly spent, and that most of the population of the United States and the world is still vulnerable to it.
And so, scientists fear big resurgences of the virus over the next months and years, and their fears are grounded in history and scientific analysis. But yet, they say, their view of the future is more occluded than ever, as the response to the pandemic grows more varied.
I think we have more uncertainty now than almost any other time, epidemiologist Eleanor Murray, at Boston University, recently told me. Now at this moment, some places are thinking about continuing lockdown. Some places are thinking about opening. Opening means different things in different places. Theres such a range of possible actions that different areas are taking, that its really hard to predict. Our actions influence the results, which then, in turn, influence our actions.
Will residents keep up with mask-wearing and social distancing, even when their leaders relax regulations? Plus, there are scientific questions about the virus still not understood: Will it diminish transmission in a seasonal pattern? Do children contribute greatly to its spread? How long does immunity last after an infection? Why do some people breathe out more of the virus than others? The answers to these questions will influence the future, and we do not know the answers.
Scientists are still unraveling what makes the difference between a sprawling outbreak in one city and a more manageable one in another. Some of it is the result of policy, some is the result of demographics, some is about structural inequality and racism, and some comes down to individual behavior. Some of it is just luck. Thats chaos for you.
I dont see uncertainty as a lack of knowledge, says Philip Lorenz-Spreen, a physicist who studies the chaos of a different sort of viral dynamics. I think its a fundamental part of how our world works. Its not our fault we do not know where this all will go.
Newton clearly told us what happens when an object drops from the sky. But follow his laws and find that the path of a double pendulum is very, very difficult to predict. Climate scientists clearly tell us adding CO2 to the air will increase global temperatures. Yet they argue about when the worst effects of climate change will be felt and how bad it will be. Epidemiologists are clearly telling us what happens when you bring masses of people together during a pandemic. But they cant tell us the exact shape this outbreak will take.
Thinking about the future of the pandemic means wrestling with uncertainty, both personally and as a human community. And it also means dealing with whats not likely to happen: The virus disappears in the next several months. If it does, it will do so for reasons scientists do not understand or can currently explain.
Theres a lot in this chaotic pandemic system we cant control. Lets be serious about the ones we can.
Support Voxs explanatory journalism
Every day at Vox, we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you, and our audience around the world, with information that has the power to save lives. Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment: to empower you through understanding. Voxs work is reaching more people than ever, but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn. Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation, but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles, videos, and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires. Please consider making a contribution to Vox today.
Follow this link:
Covid-19 pandemic and chaos theory: Why the future is impossible to precisely predict - Vox.com
Food industry workers have experienced some of the fastest-growing rates of Covid-19, which FERN has been closely tracking in the food system since mid-April. The charts below draw out some trends from that data, including the states with the most severe outbreaks, which companies have the highest number of cases, and what types of plants have experienced the largest outbreaks.
Since FERN began gathering data, there has been a steady rise in the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 among workers at meatpacking plants, food-processing facilities, and on farms. When we first published our map on April 22, there were 1,950 cases among these workers. The cumulative total on May 19 was over 16,400 a more than eight-fold increase in less than a month. In that time, 66 workers have died of the disease.
As the number of cases has ticked up, the number of outbreaks has also grown. On April 22, we found cases at 40 meatpacking and food-processing facilities. On May 19, the cumulative total number of outbreaks at these facilities was 215. Workers continue to report that they have inadequate access to personal protective gear, sick leave, and hazard pay.
Covid-19 has been slower to reach farms and production facilities, like greenhouses. But the number of outbreaks is rising in that sector, too. We first mapped an outbreak at a farm 27 cases at Herbrucks Poultry Ranch in Saranac, Michigan on May 5. As of May 19, we have counted Covid-19 outbreaks at 14 farms.
A note on methodology
These charts and graphs were generated from the same dataset as our map on Covid-19 outbreaks, and the same methodology notes apply. All totals noted here are cumulative. The timelines have data points for each weekday between April 22 and May 18, and excludes weekends.
Throughout April, as the number of Covid-19 outbreaks in meatpacking plants rose, several plants were partially idled or closed entirely in an attempt to slow the spread of the disease among workers. The peak of these closures, according to FERNs data, occurred on May 1, when 20 meatpacking plants were shuttered across the country. That week, experts estimated that hog processing had fallen 40 percent.
On April 26, the chairman of Tyson Foods, John Tyson, took out a full-page ad in several newspapers in which he warned about the vulnerability of the food supply, saying that the continued closure of plants would lead to shortages of the companys products. He called on the government to take action, and two days later President Trump signed an executive order to keep meatpacking plants open. As of May 19, nearly all of the once-closed meatpacking plants have started back up.
Some types of meatpacking plants have had more cases of Covid-19 than others. Pork plants account for nearly twice as many cases nearly 6,000 as any other type of meatpacking facility.
Just a few companies dominate the meatpacking sector. Tyson, JBS, Smithfield, and Cargill process 85 percent of all of the countrys beef; Tyson, JBS, and Smithfield handle over 60 percent of the nations pork. Those packers, as well as other major producers like National Beef and Perdue, have seen substantially more outbreaks at their facilities than their smaller competitors. Three companies Tyson, JBS, and Smithfield account for over 45 percent of all the meatpacking plants we have mapped with Covid-19 outbreaks.
The meatpacker with the highest number of employees sickened by Covid-19 is, by far, Tyson Foods, with nearly 5,000 cases at its plants. Thats a third of the nations total number of cases at meatpacking plants. Tysons Waterloo, Iowa, pork plant has reported 1,031 cases, the highest of any facility in the country. Tyson, JBS, and Smithfield together account for 53 percent of all cases of Covid-19 among meatpacking plant workers.
In most instances, these companies have not disclosed data about the number of Covid-19 cases and deaths among their workers. JBS and Smithfield have said they are not releasing the data to protect worker privacy. But workers, advocates, and at least one smaller meatpacker have argued that it is the companies responsibility to inform the public about outbreaks at their plants.
FERN has plotted outbreaks at meatpacking facilities in 28 states, with North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Illinois seeing the highest numbers. (Some states not represented on these charts, like Oregon, Maine, and Rhode Island, have had outbreaks at food-processing facilities. Other states, like Maryland, have released the total number of sickened meatpacking workers but not the names or locations of the affected facilities.)
Iowa, Nebraska, and North Carolina also account for the highest numbers of meatpacking workers who have contracted Covid-19. The three states total over 5,300 cases, or more than 36 percent of the food industry workers who have contracted the disease nationally.
This article may not be reproduced without express permission from FERN. If you are interested in republishing or reposting this article, please contact info@thefern.org.
Go here to read the rest:
Charting the spread of Covid-19 in the food system - Food & Environment Reporting Network
Quick Take
Viral posts suggest that COVID-19 cant be a serious disease if it hasnt wiped out the homeless. But recent reports published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have found high rates of homeless residents testing positive for the novel coronavirus, known as SARS-CoV-2.
As the total number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. surpassed 1.4 million, including more than 89,000 deaths, in mid-May, viral memes misleadingly suggest that if COVID-19 was so deadly, it would have a devastating effect on the homeless population.
One frequently shared post, which uses a photo of actor Heath Ledger in his role as the Joker, states: IF THE CORONAVIRUS IS SO DEADLY WHY HASNT IT WIPED OUT THE HOMELESS. It continues: THEY LIVE OUTSIDE THERE IS NO SOCIAL DISTANCING AND THEY CANT WASH THEIR HANDS.
One social media commenter added: Yes the virus is real but its not as serious as they say it is,
A similar post on Facebook reads: Serious question: How come we are not finding tens of thousands of homeless dead people in tents? Other versions of the post ask the same question.
But the disease has indeed struck the homeless living on streets and in shelters throughout the U.S., and cases are likely to climb among this highly at-risk group.
A recent report published by the nonprofit National Alliance to End Homelessness projects that the homeless population in the U.S. will be twice as likely to be hospitalized, two to four times as likely to require critical care, and two to three times as likely to die as the general population as a result of the pandemic.
Actual numbers of how many homeless people have been infected or have died from COVID-19 are not known yet. Theres an ad hoc nature to not just the response to this crisis just generally speaking, but with the data tracking, Daniel Treglia, a co-author of the NAEH report, told us.
Testing has been incredibly limited, and therefore the numbers are based on how many people are symptomatic, and we know those are understatements, said Treglia, a post-doctoral fellow at the University of Pennsylvanias School of Social Policy and Practice.
Reports by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that the pandemic has hit residents and workers in homeless shelters.
A CDC report on homeless shelters in four U.S. cities Boston, Seattle, San Francisco and Atlanta found that 25% of residents in 19 shelters tested positive for the novel coronavirus, known as SARS-CoV-2, from March 27 to April 15.
Another CDC report on three homeless service sites in Washington state concluded that COVID-19 was diagnosed in 35 of 195 (18%) residents and eight of 38 (21%) staff members. That report also noted that COVID-19 can spread quickly in homeless shelters; rapid interventions including testing and isolation to identify cases and minimize transmission are necessary.
News media across the country also have reported infections and coronavirus-related deaths among local homeless populations.
With 150,000 homeless people throughout the state, California has ramped up efforts to transport homeless individuals to hotel rooms, the Associated Press reported on April 18. San Francisco experienced an outbreak at a homeless shelter where more than 100 people tested positive, including 10 staff members, according to the AP story. More than 30 homeless people tested positive for COVID-19 in Los Angeles County; six were living in a shelter, but most cases involved people living on the street.
In Boston, about 200 homeless individuals tested positive for the virus, WBUR reported on April 6. In New York City after a reported 460 homeless individuals tested positive and 27 had died by mid-April Mayor Bill de Blasio announced new protective measures to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 in the citys homeless population, according to an ABC News story.
In Washington states King County, which had 112 confirmed cases of COVID-19 among its homeless population or people working at service sites by April 20, shelters have made efforts to space out cots and sleeping areas within their facilities, the Seattle Times reported.
CDC estimates that there are 1.4 million people living in homeless shelters each year. It is a population with the potential for widespread transmission of COVID-19 because [h]omeless shelters are often crowded, making social distancing difficult, and [m]any persons experiencing homelessness are older or have underlying medical conditions, placing them at higher risk for severe COVID-19associated illness, the CDC said.
According to Treglia, co-author of the NAEH report, homeless people have about twice the mortality rate as the general population. The homeless population is at much higher risk of chronic diseases including diabetes, hypertension things that are associated with negative outcomes in COVID-19, he said.
Other factors that make the homeless especially susceptible to the coronavirus include food insecurity and lack of proper nutrition, insufficient rest, difficulty complying with social distancing guidelines, and limited access to running water needed for hand washing and hygiene.
It is impossible for people who are sleeping on the streets or who are in shelters to stay at home, Treglia added. It just isnt an option for them.
Editors note: FactCheck.org is one of several organizations working with Facebookto debunk misinformation shared on social media. Our previous stories can be foundhere.
Coronavirus Resource Center. COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering. Johns Hopkins University of Medicine. Accessed 18 May 2020.
Silva, Karen Millhouse. Serious question:How come we are not finding tens of thousands of homeless dead people in tents? Facebook. 9 May 2020.
Wagoner, Judy. HOW COME WE ARE NOT FINDING TENS OF THOUSANDS OF HOMELESS DEAD IN TENTS? Facebook. 8 May 2020.
Parks, Daniel. Serious question:How come we are not finding tens of thousands of homeless dead people in tents? Facebook. 9 May 2020.
Need, DB. IF THE CORONAVIRUS IS SO DEADLY WHY HASNT IT WIPED OUT THE HOMELESS THEY LIVE OUTSIDE THERE IS NO SOCIAL DISTANCING AND THEY CANT WASH THEIR HANDS. Facebook. 13 May 2020.
Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Prevalence in Homeless Shelters Four U.S. Cities, March 27April 15, 2020.Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 1 May 2020
COVID-19 Outbreak Among Three Affiliated Homeless Service Sites King County, Washington, 2020. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 1 May 2020.
Culhane, Dennis et. al. Estimated Emergency and Observational/Quarantine Bed Need for the US Homeless Population Related to COVID-19 Exposure by County; Projected Hospitalizations, Intensive Care Units and Mortality. National Alliance to End Homelessness. 23 Mar 2020.
Gerda, Nick. Homeless Deaths Are Spiking in Orange County. Voice of OC. 12 May 2020.
California Struggles to Slow COVID-19 Among Homeless. Associated Press. 18 Apr 2020.
Katersky, Aaron and Ella Torres. At least 27 New York City homeless, among hundreds of cases, have died from COVID-19. ABC News. 15 Apr 2020.
Jolicoeur, Lynn and Lisa Mullins. Surge In Coronavirus Cases In Bostons Homeless Population More Dramatic Than We Anticipated. WBUR. 6 Apr 2020.
Homeless Research Institute. Population At-Risk: Homelessness and the COVID-19 Crisis. National Alliance to End Homelessness. Accessed 15 May 2020.
Read the original:
False Perception of COVID-19's Impact on the Homeless - FactCheck.org
There are no hard and fast rules about this at this point.
MINNEAPOLIS Pierce County, Wisconsin health officials said they are monitoring a cluster of people in an apartment complex who have tested positive for coronavirus over the weekend.
Pierce County director of Public Health, AZ Snyder said they noticed a pattern after three people tested positive.
"We noticed the addresses were really similar so three confirmed positives in three different households and a total of 14 people in this complex that are experiencing symptoms," Snyder said.
Snyder clarified that the 11 people are a part of the three households with the patients who have tested positive. To address the 11 symptomatic people who haven't tested at all, the county asked for a favor.
"All 11 people have signed voluntary orders of isolation with the health department and they have all been cooperating," Snyder said. "They will stay in their apartments until they are no longer infectious."
That's one county's way of handling a handful of cases in an apartment complex.
Mike Vraa, the managing attorney for HomeLine, a tenant/renter legal help hotline said that in a lot of the calls he's been receiving regarding the Coronavirus, they're talking hypotheticals.
"You have to find answers that didn't exist before and find which ones are the most likely right answers," Vraa said. Because there isn't a precedent that lawyers can reflect on, he said he and the other attorneys are venturing into new territory with COVID-19 and renters issues.
For example, Vraa said right now there are no rules or laws that mandate a tenant who has tested positive for COVID-19 to tell anyone about their positive test result.
"There's no obligation to tell your landlord that you've tested positive and there's no obligation for your landlord to disclose it to neighbors," he said.
Vraa said there are also no specific rules for landlords either. However, he said he's mostly heard of team work among the patient, landlords and neighbors.
"They'll offer to do groceries, 'if you give me your mailbox key, i'll bring your mail up every day so you don't have to be in the communal mail area,'" Vraa said. He said people have also offered others to take their garbage out so the COVID-19 positive folks can stay inside their apartment as much as possible.
In times of uncertainty the motto of 'better safe than sorry,' seems to prevail. That's the approach Pierce County officials are taking so far in Wisconsin.
"What we're asking people to do is avoid public spaces like gyms or playgrounds or lobbies and if you can't avoid a public space it's important that people wear masks and hand wash every time they go in an out of their apartment at a minimum," Snyder said.
Vraa said being honest with your landlord will also be helpful, moving forward if you do get COVID-19.
"I think just opening up lines of communication with the landlord are going to matter a lot in trying to figure out a way to minimize any potential contact with neighbors," he said.
More:
Apartment living and COVID-19: What to do if you test positive? - KARE11.com
