Category: Covid-19

Fears that Iran is in the grip of a second wave of coronavirus have been reinforced, with the health ministry saying 3,000 new cases were recorded in 24 hours the highest figure for two months.

The Islamic Republic, one of the worst-hit countries in the Middle East, started easing its lockdown in April after a drop in deaths.

Its leaders have been reluctant to acknowledge that they may have lifted restrictions prematurely. They have argued that a recent rise in new infections was confined to certain provinces and that the number of deaths was relatively low. At the weekend the president, Hassan Rouhani, said most restrictions had now been lifted, pointing to the opening of 40,000 mosques, as well as shops and offices. Despite a clear reversal of fortunes in the past fortnight, few newspapers appeared willing to acknowledge that the virus had not been conquered.

But health ministry officials on Monday sent out a dire warning about complacency, saying the battle was far from over.

The health minister, Saeed Namaki, said he was witnessing sad scenes across the country. Unfortunately, he said, corona is going to score a goal in the 90th minute if some officials and the people believe that corona is over. If we neglect the situation we will go backwards. People, have mercy on us, lets have mercy on ourselves, government officials are getting tired.

The latest figures showed 2,979 new infections in the previous 24 hours, taking the total of infections in Iran to 154,445. The daily figure is the highest since 1 April. The comparative figure for 1 May was 802 new infections.

The number of deaths is also starting to rise again, with 81 dead in the previous 24 hours, the highest figure since 27 April. A total of 8,778 have died since Irans outbreak began.

Namaki said he had been disturbed by the lack of social distancing on public transport. Theslightest negligence can destroy all successes and tarnish our reputation in the international arena, he said.

Contrary to some messaging by Irans leadership that the virus was weakening, he said that it had become more dangerous. Last week we had cases of patients dying at the age of 32 or 42 without any underlying disease, due to coronavirus, he said.

My colleagues and the deputies of the ministry of health are working around the clock and traveling to one province every day to control this epidemic, but we are dealing with local issues and behaviours that could lead to the return of the peak of the disease. Wedding celebrations, he warned, would turn into funerals soon afterwards.

He said the virus was most dangerous in the south-west province of Khuzestan, but infections were also rising in Kermanshah, Hormozgan, Sistan and Baluchestan. The health ministry claimed adherence to social distancing rules had dropped from 90% to 40%, and that promised new buses for Tehran had not materialised, leading to overcrowding. Those not wearing masks on Tehran public transport should be banned from travelling, Namaki said.

Experts both at home and abroad have voiced scepticism aboutIrans official figures, saying the real toll could be much higher.

Health officials have repeatedly raised the alarm about Khuzestan onIrans south-western border with Iraq. Khuzestan remains at red, the highest level onIrans colour-coded risk scale, and is the only province where the government has reimposed a lockdown.

Iranian authorities have been under intense internal pressure to lift restrictions and get the economy, already shattered by sanctions, back moving. Nearly $2.5bn of damage has been done in 13 sectors of the economy, according to government estimates. Inflation is projected to settle at 24% next year.

Meanwhile, a senior Iranian lawmaker said on Monday that around 230 people were killed in the street protests against Irans petrol price rises last November.

It was the first time Iran had even semi-officially disclosed the scale of the protest. Motjaba Zulmoor, the head of the Iranian parliaments National Security Commission said 52 of those killed were government officials and the remainder were 78 street protesters mainly killed while attacking governmentbuildings.

Zulmoor claimed 2,000 protesters were injured and 5,000 officials, but gave no number for those detained. He blamed foreign media for the wave of attacks, andsaid the police were forced to intervene when assaults started on police centres.

An Iranian government spokesman also attacked Donald Trump for his policing of the current protests against racism and police brutality, saying it showed he had no authority to advise others on human rights issues.

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Iran's rapid rise in Covid-19 cases stokes fears of second wave - The Guardian

NEW YORK (AP) Protests erupting across the nationover the past week and law enforcements response to them are threatening to upend efforts by health officials to track and contain the spread ofcoronavirusjust as those efforts were finally getting underway.

Health experts need newly infected people to remember and recount everyone theyve interacted with over several days in order to alert others who may have been exposed, and prevent them from spreading the disease further. But that process, known as contact tracing, relies on people knowing who theyve been in contact with a daunting task if theyve been to a mass gathering.

And the process relies on something that may be suddenly be in especially short supply: Trust in government.

These events that are happening now are further threats to the trust we need, said Dr. Sandro Galea, dean of the Boston University School of Public Health. If we do not have that, I worry our capacity to control new outbreaks becomes more limited, he said.

Government officials have been hoping to continue reopening businesses, churches and other organizations after months of stay-at-home orders and other infection-prevention measures. But health experts also hoped that any reopening would be accompanied by widespread testing, contact tracing and isolation to prevent new waves of illness from beginning.

Over the past week, protests sparked bythe death of George Floyd,a black man who died after a white Minneapolis police officer pinned a knee to his neck, have involved thousands of people gathered tightly together in large crowds in more than 20 cities nationwide.

Its unclear if the protests themselves will trigger large new outbreaks. The protests were outside, where infections dont spread as readily as indoors. Also, many of the protesters were wearing masks, and much of the contact was likely less-hazardous transient moments of people moving around, passing each other, said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious diseases expert at Vanderbilt University.

But, still, experts worry that public efforts to contain the disease in the futurecould be undermined.

In Los Angeles, the citys mayor announced Saturday that COVID-19 testing centers were being closed because of safety concerns related to violent protests. Testing in Minneapolis will be affected because some of the clinics that provide the service have been damaged in the protests, according to a city government spokesperson.

Reduced testing could be giving the virus another head start, Schaffner said.

And contract tracing, which is only just getting going in several states, is an even bigger concern. It involves people who work for or with health departments asking intimate questions about where a person has been and who theyve been talking to and getting full, truthful answers in return.

In this current environment which has enhanced or brought forth a mistrust of governmental authority, it might make them disinclined to speak with anyone in government, Schaffner said.

That is especially true inblack communities trying to copewith episodes of police violence and longstanding frustrations with how they have been marginalized and mistreated by people who work for government agencies. And those are the communities that have beenhardest hit by the coronavirusin the U.S. and most in need of public health measures to help control it.

In a press conference Saturday, Minnesota Public Safety Commissioner John Harrington used the term contact tracing when describing an investigation into arrested protesters there. He said the goal is to see if there are crime or white supremacy organizations that have played a role and to understand how do we go after them, legally, Harrington said.

But Harringtons use of contact tracing by law enforcement may complicate the job of help health workers as they try to track the viruss spread, some experts said.

That was an abuse of the word contact tracing. That is not what contact tracing is, said Dr. Tom Frieden, former director of the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Contact tracing is a service to patients and their contacts to provide services for patients and warning for contacts. It has nothing to do with police activity. Nothing, said Frieden, who currently president of Resolve to Save Lives, a nonprofit that works to prevent epidemics.

Galea said he hopes many people will separate in their minds the contact tracing done by public health workers from crime investigations by the police. But, he added, I do think sometimes its difficult to make a distinction when you feel marginalized by, and targeted by, the the entire government.

___

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receivessupportfrom the Howard Hughes Medical Institutes Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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Protests reducing COVID-19 testing, could be giving the virus another head start - WAVY.com

AUSTIN, Texas A new analysis of COVID-19 outbreaks in 58 cities has found that places that took longer to begin implementing social distancing measures spent more time with the virus rapidly spreading than others that acted more quickly.

In a new paper from epidemiological researchers at The University of Texas at Austin, now in press with the CDCs journal Emerging Infectious Diseases, researchers studied cities throughout China and analyzed when first cases were detected, when social distancing measures were implemented and when the outbreak was considered contained. The team found that every day a city delayed in implementing social distancing measures after the appearance of a first case added 2.4 days to the length of the outbreak.

Every day saves time, saves effort, saves people becoming infected and probably saves lives, said Lauren Ancel Meyers, a professor of integrative biology who leads the UT Austin COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. This is particularly important as we think about the coming weeks and months.

The findings are applicable both to communities experiencing their first outbreaks and those that may see a resurgence in the coming months, Meyers said. Waiting a week after early signs of resurgence might require about 17 more days of social distancing to slow the spread of the pandemic, according to the data.

It will be difficult to consider strict interventions again, but acting early upon signs of resurgence will mean fewer days of social distancing orders, said Spencer Fox, associate director of the UT Austin COVID-19 Modeling Consortium and co-author on the paper.

Our findings have implications for the timing of interventions in U.S. cities, Meyers said. The impact of delays may be particularly important for communities that are prone to rapid transmission, such as nursing homes, colleges, schools and jails. We need concrete plans for when and how to respond to rising cases to prevent unnecessarily long and costly restrictions.

To determine when an outbreak had been contained, scientists look at case counts and determine the reproduction number, a measurement that shows how many people will be infected by one infectious person. If the reproduction number drops below 1, scientists consider the outbreak contained.

Other studies into the impact of delaying social distancing measures have used modeling to estimate a link between the time of measures being taken and the effect on outbreaks. By contrast, this study used on-the-ground data to determine the link between cities taking measures to contain the virus and rates of the virus spreading.

The study was not able to determine which social distancing measures were most effective, but it showed that the timing of the first measure, regardless of the type, had a big impact.

We provide direct, data-driven evidence that the timing of interventions has a substantial impact on how long an outbreak lasts, how effective our interventions are and, ultimately, how many people might be infected and die from the virus, Meyers said.

Although the study looked at cities experiencing the earliest days of an outbreak, the findings are also relevant for cities in the middle of an outbreak, Meyers said.

In addition to Fox and Meyers, Zhanwei Du of UT Austin, Xiaoke Xu of Dalian Minzu University, Lin Wang of the University of Cambridge, Benjamin J. Cowling of the University of Hong Kong and Alison P. Galvani of the Yale School of Public Health contributed to the research. The research was funded by the National Institutes of Health and the National Natural Science Foundation of China. The UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium is made possible, in part, by the generous support of Titos Handmade Vodka.

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For Each Day's Delay in Social Distancing, a COVID-19 Outbreak Lasts Days Longer - UT News | The University of Texas at Austin

Why are mobile COVID-19 testing sites in Buncombe County limited to 1-4 p.m.?  WLOS

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Why are mobile COVID-19 testing sites in Buncombe County limited to 1-4 p.m.? - WLOS

VALLEY CITY, N.D. (NewsDakota.com) There is one additional case of COVID-19 confirmed in Barnes County. The individual is a male in his 20s who has been isolating at home. This newly confirmed case brings the county total to 5, with just one considered active.

City-County Health District (CCHD) reminds the public that certain people are at higher risk of getting very sick from COVID-19 including older adults and people who have serious chronic medical conditions like heart disease, diabetes and lung disease, according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).

Recent data shows that the virus is also affecting younger people, said Theresa Will, Administrator for City-County Health District. About 30 percent of confirmed COVID-19 cases have been among people between 20-44 years old, Will said of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report.

Everyone can help reduce the spread of COVID-19 and other respiratory infections by: Avoiding close contact with others as much as possible Washing hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds Avoiding touching of the eyes, nose, and mouth Cleaning and disinfecting frequently touched objects and surfaces Wearing a cloth face covering in public settings where distancing is difficult

Its important that we dont misunderstand what our low number of cases means for Barnes County. A low number does not mean were out of the woods, it means we must remain vigilant in exercising personal responsibility to help slow the spread, said Will.

CCHD reminds the public that as we enter phase 2 of North Dakotas Smart Re-Start, contact journaling is important. Keep a daily list of who youve come in contact with and utilize the free CARE 19 mobile app to help you remember locations youve visited.

For the most timely information and updates related to COVID-19 in North Dakota, visit the NDDoH website at http://www.healthy.nd.gov/coronavirus. Follow City-County Health District on Facebook for Barnes County updates or call 701-845-8518.

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Another Case Of COVID-19 Reported In Barnes County - newsdakota.com

Airborne aerosols were generated during speech, sneezing, and during nasal endoscopy procedures in an otolaryngology clinic, reinforcing the importance of universal source control during the COVID-19 epidemic, researchers found.

In a simulated clinical setting, speech and nasal endoscopy generated significant airborne aerosols, though simulated sneezing generated the largest number of airborne aerosols, reported Benjamin Bleier, MD, of Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary in Boston, and colleagues.

While a surgical mask helped to partially mitigate airborne aerosol generation, an N95 respirator helped to contain airborne particle generation, the authors wrote in Otolaryngology -- Head and Neck Surgery.

Bleier told MedPage Today that evidence that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has high viral load in the nasopharynx is concerning for healthcare providers in general, but especially for otolaryngologists. A nasal endoscopy involves inserting a scope inside a patient's nose, which initiates "direct contact between the instrument and the airway tissue, causing the patient to perform involuntary behavior," such as coughing or sneezing, he explained.

And most literature supports the idea that talking generates more aerosols than coughing, as Bleier noted that prior research supports the idea that "talking alone is worrisome for aerosol generation, even in a closed environment with someone infected."

"In an environment where testing is not widely available or reliable, we have to adopt the posture of universal source control," he said. "We have to assume all patients are positive [for COVID-19] and treat them as such."

For doctors, even in the clinic setting, this means full personal protective equipment (PPE): gown, gloves, mask, and goggles or eye protection. Because of airborne aerosols the patient generates in the room, this also means engineering control, Bleier added, such as the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system turning over the air supply in the room.

"Close the room for an hour, let the air circulate, clean all surfaces, and then the next patient can come in," he said.

Bleier and his team even proposed a solution for otolaryngologists who have to do nasal endoscopies: a version of the N95 mask, with a small piece of latex glove stapled to the inside and outside. The scope is passed through that section of the mask, with the latex providing a seal adequate to prevent pathogen transmission.

Bleier said that in addition to having both patients and providers be masked, it is also important to ensure that patients don't pull down their masks.

"Even though it wasn't statistically significant, it has the potential to release airborne particles into the room. Data alone suggests the mask needs to remain on the patient's mouth," he said.

Bleier's group also focused on surgical procedures specific to otolaryngologists by using different surgical instruments in a cadaver head. The team found that transnasal drill and cautery use were both associated with significant airborne particulate matter production under surgical conditions.

Bleier said his group's study helped "peel back the veil" on the aerosols to which healthcare providers are exposed, which has gained a heightened importance in this era of COVID-19.

"We always have been, but we just weren't paying attention to it," he said. "This will have a long-term effect on the precautions we take."

Last Updated May 27, 2020

Molly Walker is an associate editor, who covers infectious diseases for MedPage Today. She has a passion for evidence, data and public health. Follow

Disclosures

Bleier disclosed support from Olympus, Medtronic, Karl Storz, Sinopsys, Baxter, 3D Matrix, and Thieme, and holding patents for "Treatment of Sinusitis Through Modulation of Cell Membrane Pumps," "Inhibition of Cystatins for the Treatment of Chronic Rhinosinusitis,"and "Methods of Delivery of Pharmaceutical Agents," and noted that he is working with industry to develop source control solutions for endoscopic procedures that may include an equity position in the future.

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Even at the Clinic, COVID-19 Could Be in the Air - MedPage Today

When we look beneath the headlines, however, there are signs of an emerging story of solidarity that cuts across our polarized politics. The leading actors in this story are members of the "Traditional Conservative" segment we identified in our 2018 report, "Hidden Tribes: A Study of America's Polarized Landscape."

Traditional Conservatives are staunch Republicans -- 87% voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and 86% voted for a Republican candidate in the 2018 midterms -- and constitute almost 20% of the adult population overall and approximately 39% of Americans who identify as Republican.

If this shift endures, it could have significant implications -- not just for the 2020 election but for the strength of America's social fabric.

When we published "Hidden Tribes" two years ago, we identified seven distinct segments of the American population. We described four segments as comprising the "Exhausted Majority" because, while ideologically and demographically diverse, they shared a set of common features: They were fed up with hyper-partisan politics, felt like their voices were not heard and wanted our country to come together. We put a spotlight on this group as a potential force to reduce polarization in politics and foster a spirit of collaboration.

Traditional Conservatives -- along with the "Progressive Activist" (8% of the population) and "Devoted Conservative" (6% of the population) segments -- were not part of the Exhausted Majority in 2018 because of the intensity of their partisan identity and investment in the political status quo.

In this new study, we unexpectedly found that many Traditional Conservatives expressed views closer to those of the Exhausted Majority, breaking ranks from their Devoted Conservative allies.

Fully two-thirds (67%) of Traditional Conservatives say they are now more grateful to live in the US (versus 34% average) and 22% say they feel closer to the people in the areas hardest hit by Covid-19 in the early days of the pandemic, such as New York City, California, and Washington State. Just 5% of Devoted Conservatives expressed such solidarity with these blue areas.

These shifts do not represent a definitive change in the political landscape. Traditional Conservatives still express many views similar to those of the Devoted Conservatives -- 42% of Traditional Conservatives and 64% of Devoted Conservatives are "much more frustrated" with journalists and reporters now than before the onset of the virus, for example.

However, today, many Traditional Conservatives appear to be more closely aligned with a growing American consensus that appreciates the need for national solidarity against Covid-19 and is frustrated by our broken politics.

This bolsters the ranks of Americans looking for leaders to heal our divisions and build on our shared experiences of loss, gratitude and hope as we wrestle with this pandemic.

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Traditional conservatives are rethinking their views in light of Covid-19 - CNN

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) When Benito Sosa celebrated turning 71 on April 4, there was no sign of the virus that would rob him of birthdays to come.

But within two weeks, he fell ill with COVID-19.

By May 10, the construction and factory worker who refused to retire at 71 laid near death at Spectrum HealthButterworthHospital in Grand Rapids.

Sosas daughter, MariaGarnica Altamirano, wonders if her dad could have survived if hed gone to the hospital sooner.

But he was very stubborn. He didnt want to say, Im feeling sick. I cannot breathe, saidGarnicaAltamiranoin a Zoom interview with News 8 from her home in Chicago.

When doctors said Sosa would need a ventilator and dialysis for the rest of his life, the family made the excruciating decision to let him go.

My other sister, who is a doctor, we talk together, and we said, no more because he wont like that, saidGarnica Altamirano, referring to the ventilator and dialysis.

A nurse herself, she had traveled from Chicago to be at her dads hospital bedside at the end.

I told him, dont worry, were okay, recalledGarnicaAltamiranothrough tears.

Im sorry if we made you suffer all these days, but we thought you will make it because we know you are strong, and you dont have nothing. There is no high blood pressure, no diabetes, nothing. But right now, you can go inpeace andwell be OK. Well take care of mom.

On the record filed with the Kent County clerks office, Sosas immediate cause of death was listed as Acute Respiratory Distress System and COVID-19 pneumonia.

While there were no other significant conditions listed as contributors to Sosas death, his daughter believes he may have had undiagnosed lung problems due to working construction in Mexico, where he lived part of the year.

Shortly before his birthday, Sosa had returned to Grand Rapids and the factory job his family said he enjoyed.

He worked hard for us, saidGarnica Altamirano.

He made changes in his life because he lives in Oaxaca, Mexico. Its more of a poor place. He traveled with my mom for us to have a better life.

He succeeded.

Sosa and his wife raised seven children, all of whom hold college degrees.

Benito Sosa was one of 11 Hispanic people who died in Kent County from COVID-19 in May, according to death certificates filed with the clerks office as of Thursday.

According to the Kent County Health Department, while Latinos make up around 10% of the countys population, they have so far comprised 18% of COVID-19 deaths overall.

The disparity was even more pronounced in the month of May.

Death certificates filed with the county as of Thursday, showed one-third of COVID-19 deaths11 out of 33 occurred in the Latino population.

But the gap in infection rates is even more alarming.

While thedisproportionalityof deaths is significant, the disparity in the disease itself is even greater, wrote a health department official in an email exchange with Target 8.

Despite comprising just 10% of the countys population,KCHDreports Latinos make up 40% of confirmed COVID-19 cases.

That means there are four times more cases among the Hispanic population than we would have expected if the distribution were equal, concluded the health department employee.

Latinos are also dying at a younger age than their counterparts.

Kent County health leaders say the average age of non-Hispanics whove died from COVID-19 is 77 years old, while the average age of Hispanics is 61.

MatiasDomingo was 51 when he died from COVID-19 at Mercy Health Saint Marys on May 16.

Domingo ran a Guatemalan grocery store with his wife,Candelaria, on Burton Street, west of Division Avenue in Grand Rapids.

He was also studying to become a deacon in the Catholic Church.

It was in the deacon program that Orlando Benedict met Domingo.

He was a person youd like to have as a friend. Extremely friendly and very helpful. A person who always gave more than he received, Benedict said.

Benedict recalled that Domingo used to spend Saturdays visiting sick patients at Grand Rapids hospitals.

It was on a Saturday in one of the hospitals where Domingo once spread hopethat the aspiring deacon succumbed to COVID-19.

The grocery store is closed for now as his wife and family grieve his passing.

The record filed with the Kent County Clerks office listed the cause of Domingos death as Acute Hypoxic Respiratory Failure,AdultRespiratory Distress Syndrome, and COVID-19pneumonia.

The death certificate listed Klebsiella pneumonia and Pneumothorax as significant conditions contributing to his passing.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention describedKlebsiellapneumonia as a bacterial infection that commonly occurs among sick people who are receiving treatment for other conditions for instance, patients whose care requires devices like ventilators.

According to death records, of the 12 Latinos who died in April and May (one died in April), eight had at least one other significant condition that contributed to their death but did not directly cause it.

Its unclear whereMatiasDomingo and Benito Sosa contracted COVID-19, but both had jobs that could have exposed them to the virus.

Sosa worked in a factory that produces dog food and Domingo worked in his grocery store, which remained open as an essential business during the lockdown.

Benedict said hes certain Domingo was happy to continue working to serve people in need.

Edith Reyes, a reporter with the Spanish language newspaper, ElVocero, thinks Latinos may be at higher risk because they often work jobs in essential industries like food production, foodservice and agriculture.

Reyes, also a student at Grand Valley State University, helped Target 8 connect with families for this report, visiting homes with us and translating conversations.

She said she fears for her own family too, especially her mom, who works in food production.

Her having to work, its like her having to put her life at risk, said Reyes.

Reyes noted that the Latino community has less access to health care and benefits like unemployment.

They dont have a choice to stay home and protect themselves, she said.

Some worry about their immigration status as well.

Benito Sosa came to West Michigan on a green card and was studying to take the citizenship exam.

At the end, Sosas daughter, Maria, tried to make sure her dad knew hed prepared his children well for life.

He can go inpeace andwere OK, she said tearfully.

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Kent Co. Latinos with COVID-19 die younger and more often - WOODTV.com

New research has poured cold water on the theory that the Covid-19 outbreak in Washington state the countrys first was triggered by the very first confirmed case of the infection in the country. Instead, it suggests the person who ignited the first chain of sustained transmission in the United States probably returned to the country in mid-February, a month later.

The work adds to evidence that the United States missed opportunities to stop the SARS-CoV-2 virus from taking root in this country and that those opportunities persisted for longer than has been recognized up until now.

Our finding that the virus associated with the first known transmission network in the U.S. did not enter the country until mid-February is sobering, since it demonstrates that the window of opportunity to block sustained transmission of the virus stretched all the way until that point, the authors wrote in the paper. The paper has been posted to a preprint server, meaning it has not yet been peer-reviewed or published in a journal.

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The research was led by Michael Worobey, a professor of evolutionary biology at the University of Arizona.

Using available genetic sequence data, Worobey and his co-authors modeled how SARS-CoV-2 viruses would have evolved if the original case, known in the medical literature as WA1 (short for Washington state patient 1), had been the source of the states outbreak. They ran the model 1,000 times, comparing the genetic sequences of 300 randomly selected simulated cases to those retrieved from 300 actual patients. The results didnt jibe.

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In all likelihood this didnt start with WA1, Worobey told STAT in an interview. It started with some unidentified person who arrived in Washington state at some later point. And we dont know from where.

Worobey said the sequence data suggest the infection may have been brought to the country by someone returning from China, or from a nearby Asian country, or even from Asia via British Columbia, Canada.

Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, drew the initial line between the first Washington state case a man who returned to the state from Wuhan on Jan. 15 and the states first reported case in someone who had not traveled outside the country. That person, a high school student who had been tested negative for influenza, was recognized as a Covid-19 case at the end of February.

Analysis of the genetic sequences of the viruses that infected these two people looked close enough that Bedford concluded SARS-CoV-2 had been spreading undetected in the Seattle area for about six weeks.

But in a series of tweets he posted on Sunday, Bedford said he now concludes that theory was not correct.

Based on data thats emerged in the intervening months, I no longer believe that a direct WA1 introduction is a likely hypothesis for the origin of the Washington State outbreak, he tweeted.

Others agree.

Im convinced by the Worobey study, Kristian Andersen of Scripps Research, an expert on viral genomes, told STAT.

Samuel Scarpino, an assistant professor at Northeastern Universitys Network Science Institute, said Worobeys paper confirms what a lot of what we were starting to suspect from the epidemiological data, that there were some early introductions in the West Coast that did not spark sustained transmission.

Worobey and his co-authors estimated that the infection that started the Seattle area outbreak arrived in the country around Feb. 13, shortly after President Trumps ban on travel from China went into effect on Feb. 2. Thousands of Americans in the country fled back to the United States in the days after the ban was announced.

Worobey said the work isnt merely an effort to set the historical record straight. If WA1 sparked the Seattle outbreak, there was really little more that could have been done to prevent it. The patient had recognized he was probably ill and alerted his physician to the risk. Public health authorities mapped his travel and contacted his contacts, isolating him and quarantining the people hed been in contact with.

When the first case of local transmission was linked back to WA1, it appeared that the efforts to contain his infection hadnt been adequate. But in fact, they probably were, Worobey said.

Conclusions that the Seattle area was already six weeks into an epidemic by the end of February, rather than two or three, and the notion that stringent efforts to prevent spread had failed in the WA1 case, may have influenced decision-making about how to respond to the outbreak, including whether such measures were worth the effort, he and his co-authors wrote.

Scarpino said the research supports the idea that contact tracing and isolation can work. Everything is sort of lining up in the direction that if were serious about it, we can control this thing, he said. Were just not being serious about it.

Worobeys group also disputed a claim, published earlier this month, that a more transmissible lineage of SARS-CoV-2 viruses has emerged, arguing the increased geographic spread of viruses with that mutation pattern has more to do with timing than with increased infectiousness.

Viruses with these mutations spread from Hubei province to Italy and from there to New York City and began to spread locally undetected for a time. This viral lineage appears to have been amplified because of luck, not high fitness, they wrote.

Correction: The headline on an earlier version of this story misstated a key finding of the new research that the coronavirus took off in the U.S. later than previously thought.

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New research rewrites history of when Covid-19 took off in the US - STAT

CAMDEN COUNTY, Mo. Remember that Lake of the Ozarks crowd over the Memorial Day Weekend? One of the people who was there later tested positive for COVID-19 according to the Camden County Health Department.

The Health Department says this person was possibly infectious and likely incubating the illness at the time they were at the lake.

Below is a list of places the person visited while visiting the Lake of the Ozarks area:

Saturday, May 23, 2020

Backwater Jacks: 1 p.m. 5 p.m.Shady Gators and Lazy Gators Pool: 5:40 p.m. 9 p.m.Backwater Jacks 9:40 p.m. 10 p.m.

Sunday, May 24

Buffalo Wild Wings: 1 p.m. 2 p.m.Shady Gators: 2:30 p.m. until 6:30 p.m. -7 p.m.Taxi from Shady Gators to private residence around 7 p.m.

The public who may have been in these places is asked to please monitor for symptoms:

If you develop symptoms, the Health Department asks for you to contact your physician, and isolate until test results are known and to stay home if youre sick.

The Boone County Health Department and other local health departments are working to contact others.

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Lake of the Ozarks crowd member tests positive for COVID-19 - KTVI Fox 2 St. Louis