Category: Covid-19

More than half of the 27 deaths announced Tuesday were people from rural counties, such as Barnes, Renville and Mountrail counties. All victims were between the ages of 50 and 100.

Per capita, North Dakota's rural areas are also reporting the highest number of active COVID-19 cases. Griggs County, about 100 miles southwest of Grand Forks, leads the state with 288 active cases per 10,000 people. In contrast, Cass County, which encompasses Fargo and West Fargo, has 64 active cases per 10,000 people.

The North Dakota Department of Health reported a high number of COVID-19 deaths Tuesday because of a reporting lag from over the weekend, as is normal for the number of tests and deaths reported on Tuesdays, the state said.

North Dakota's pandemic death toll is now at 954 residents, and November was the state's deadliest month by far with 388 reported so far. November's death count will likely increase as death investigations conclude.

The 954 total deaths means one in every 800 North Dakotans has died from the virus in a state with a population of 762,000, according to 2019's census estimate.

This new milestone comes exactly two weeks after the state marked one in every 1,000 North Dakotans had died from the virus.

At least 554 of the state's deaths have come in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities. There are more than 500 infected nursing home residents and 544 infected staff in the state.

The Department of Health says COVID-19 test results are delayed by approximately four days, as labs nationwide are experiencing a backlog in tests. This delay is concerning because residents may be spreading the disease without knowing that they have it.

In wake of this delay, the Department of Health recommends North Dakotans quarantine until they receive their test result, and residents with symptoms should isolate regardless of their test result.

For about two weeks, active COVID-19 cases have been decreasing in North Dakota. There are now 5,686 residents known to be infected with the virus.

As of Monday, South Dakota has now eclipsed North Dakota in the most COVID-19 cases per capita and deaths per capita over the last week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Hospitalizations decreased Tuesday and there are now 319 residents hospitalized due to the illness.

The state's hospitals are under severe staffing crunches, and available hospital beds are scarce. About 14% of staffed beds were available statewide as of Tuesday.

With only 3,347 tests reported, the 409 new cases announced Tuesday included the following:

About 13.4% of the 3,059 residents tested as part of the latest batch received a positive result, and an average of 12.4% of those tested in the last two weeks got a positive result. Like active cases, the state's positivity rate has decreased in the last two weeks.

Readers can reach reporter Michelle Griffith, a Report for America corps member, at mgriffith@forumcomm.com.

As a public service, weve opened this article to everyone regardless of subscription status. If this coverage is important to you, please consider supporting local journalism by clicking on the subscribe button in the upper right-hand corner of the homepage.

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Rural areas hit hard as 27 more North Dakota COVID-19 deaths bring November's total to 388 - Grand Forks Herald

Editor's note: The opinions expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the AAMC or its members.

Medical school prepares us students for our future roles as clinicians. We learn about the underlying mechanisms of disease, how to perform physical exams, and how to convey bad news. Were also taught about epidemiology, ethics, and interprofessional teamwork.

While these skills are essential to helping us be good doctors to the patients in front of us, the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted an additional responsibility: We must be trusted voices in our communities and advocates for policies that support public health.

Its because of my belief that research is essential for informing good health policy that I was eager to accept a position writing reports on the United States response to COVID-19 for the World Health Organization (WHO).

As European countries like Italy and Spain experienced widespread community transmission and their health care infrastructure was overwhelmed by high COVID-19 caseloads, WHO Regional Director for Europe Hans Kluge, MD, solicited help in collecting data on the health system and public health responses of different countries.

During my time as an undergraduate, I had worked as a research assistant for Andrew Barnes, PhD, an associate professor at Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) School of Medicine, studying Medicaid expansion and its impact on substance use disorder treatment. I continued to seek out opportunities to blend my interests in medicine, policy, and business during a gap year working at the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy. I soon returned to VCU for medical school, where I joined Dr. Barnes in evaluating the impact of Virginias Medicaid expansion.

When Dr. Barnes received the WHOs call for volunteers to track the United States response to the pandemic, he recognized that it would be a great opportunity for me given my health policy interests.

I joined a team of two others Lynn Unruh, PhD, a registered nurse and health economist, and Andriy Koval, PhD, an assistant professor and data scientist both at the University of Central Florida.

Together, we have collected data and published reports every four to six weeks for the COVID-19 Health System Response Monitor (HSRM), which tracks 53 country responses in six categories: preventing transmission, ensuring sufficient physical infrastructure and workforce capacity, providing health services effectively, paying for services, governance, and measures in other sectors, such as border controls.

My teams HSRM reports show that inaction and the lack of a scientifically-informed, unified response have contributed to the sustained spread of COVID-19 in the United States.

The COVID-19 HSRM serves a dual purpose: It acts as a database for policymakers and health systems leadership to inform their decisions in the present and it will be a learning tool in the future to look back and identify best practices.

Eight months have passed since President Donald Trump declared COVID-19 a national emergency, and the outlook remains bleak. The United States continues to lead the world in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths.The week of Thanksgiving, we recorded an average of nearly 162,007 new cases per day and hospitalizations and deaths were climbing across the country. All of this is quite surprising given earlier reports that rated the United States as one of the most well-prepared countries for a pandemic.

My teams HSRM reports show that inaction and the lack of a scientifically-informed, unified response have contributed to the sustained spread of COVID-19 in the United States. Governmental leadership has largely devolved to state and local governments, with states responsible for instituting public health measures like mask mandates and even creating test purchasing compacts.

Further complicating the situation are the inconsistent messaging, misinformation, and politicization of masking and other public health measures.

Testing and contact tracing issues persist, including test supply shortages and reporting delays. Personal protective equipment shortages and lack of bed capacity have also plagued the nation, particularly in hot spot areas.

Millions of Americans continue to lose their employer-based health insurance, including 5.4 million who lost coverage between February and May. There has been a grave exacerbation of existing disparities, including fewer testing sites in communities of color and a growing digital divide among schoolchildren from different racial and socioeconomic backgrounds.

As a nation, COVID-19 may be the wake-up call weve sorely needed to invest in our public health infrastructure.

There are a few silver linings, nonetheless. There are 319 potential treatments and 213 vaccine candidates in development globally, highlighting the strength of our research and development networks. Were learning more about how to care for COVID-19 patients, and therapies like dexamethasone may improve survival for the seriously ill. Vaccine development is making headway, with manufacturers already having sought regulatory clearance for two vaccines that have proven to be more than 90% effective.

And as a nation, COVID-19 may be the wake-up call weve sorely needed to invest in our public health infrastructure.

Despite our countrys inadequate response, its been a blessing to work on the COVID-19 HSRM. Im humbled to have a chance to inform policymakers and the public and to contribute to the global efforts to contain COVID-19.

The experience has further reinforced what I learned in my health policy research on the local, state, and national levels: Our issues extend beyond a broken health care system.

Growing evidence demonstrates that 80% of health outcomes are attributable to social determinants of health and COVID-19s devastating impact on communities of color has drawn increasing attention to these factors. Physicians serve as the first line of defense, identifying and addressing the needs of patients and connecting them with community resources.

Over the past few months during a preceptorship at a rural family medicine clinic, Ive witnessed the importance of social determinants of health and policies firsthand through the patients Ive seen: the bricklayer who continues to delay necessary medical care due to job insecurity and financial instability; the woman who suffers from depression due to an unstable housing situation and struggles to make doctor visits due to a lack of transportation; the mother without health insurance desperately searching for low-cost options to replace a long-expired EpiPen for her college-bound daughter; and the soon-to-be father recovering from opioid use disorder but burdened by social stigma and limited employment prospects.

The COVID-19 crisis has similarly illustrated that the best health policies are often not health care policies. Economic policies like paid sick leave have ensured that people can comply with public health measures like staying home from work and self-isolating when potentially infected. Likewise, bans on evictions can allow families to avoid choosing between health and housing. Increased education funding has supported more equitable access to resources like high-speed internet and lessened potential generational impacts on health.

COVID-19 has turned our world upside down and with it, our health care system. But in uncertainty lies opportunity. We need physicians who can share their clinical experiences and advocate for the needs of our most vulnerable. Medical students, by engaging in health policy research, can help shape the future of our health care system and drive meaningful reform that facilitates whole-person care and better outcomes for our patients.

Mathew Alexander is a second-year medical student at Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine. He conducts research related to global health policy on the COVID-19 pandemic for the World Health Organization and European Observatory.

Originally posted here:

I'm a medical student tracking the U.S. response to COVID-19 for the WHO. Here's what I've learned. - AAMC

People with Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, are most infectious about two days before symptoms begin and for five days afterward, according to a new analysis of previous research.

A few patients who are extremely ill or have impaired immune systems may expel or shed the virus for as long as 20 days, other studies have suggested. Even in mild cases, some patients may shed live virus for about a week, the new analysis found.

The accumulating data presents a quandary: Should public health officials shorten the recommended isolation time if it means more infected people will cooperate? Or should officials opt for longer periods in order to prevent transmission in virtually all cases, even if doing so takes a harsher toll on the economy?

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends that infected people isolate for a minimum of 10 days from the beginning of their illness. The agency is considering shortening the recommended isolation period and may issue new guidelines as early as next week, according to two federal officials with knowledge of the discussions.

In September, France dropped its required period of isolation to seven days from 14 days, and Germany is considering shortening it to five days. (Isolation refers to people who are ill; quarantine refers to people who have been exposed to the virus and may become ill.)

Setting the isolation period at five days is likely to be much more palatable and may encourage more infected people to comply, said Dr. Muge Cevik, an infectious disease expert at the University of St Andrews in Scotland who led the new analysis, published in the journal The Lancet Microbe.

A recent survey in the United Kingdom showed that only one in five people were able to isolate for 10 days after developing symptoms. Even if we do more testing, if we cant ensure people self-isolate, I dont think well be able to control the spread, Dr. Cevik said.

In the United States, many people dont get tested for the infection until a day or two after they begin to feel ill. With the current delays, many receive results two or three days later, toward the end of the period during which they are infectious.

Even if you were to get the P.C.R. test right on the very first day that you could, by the time you get the results back, 90 percent of your shedding has been completed, said Dr. Michael Mina, a virologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This meta-analysis shows just how short your transmission window is.

Dr. Cevik and her colleagues set out to analyze the so-called kinetics of the coronavirus over the course of an infection, and to compare the pathogen to the closely related SARS and MERS viruses.

The researchers considered nearly 1,500 studies published from 2003 to June 2020 on the timing of infection in thousands of people, most of whom were sick enough to be hospitalized. The team drew data from 79 studies of the new coronavirus, 11 studies of MERS and eight studies of SARS.

People who never develop symptoms seem to carry about the same amount of the new coronavirus as symptomatic patients, Dr. Cevik and her colleagues found. But asymptomatic people seem to clear the virus more quickly from their bodies.

People with Covid-19 usually are most infectious a day or two before the onset of symptoms until about five days after, the analysis concluded. Yet patients may carry genetic fragments from the virus in their noses and throats for an average of 17 days, and, in some cases, for up to three months.

A few patients may carry infectious virus in their lungs as opposed to the nose and throat for as long as eight days after symptoms begin, noted Dr. Megan Ranney, an emergency physician at Brown University. For these patients, at least, isolation periods should probably be longer than five days, if only they could be identified.

The trouble is, who has Covid pneumonia versus who doesnt is not always fully apparent just based on physical exam, she said. They wouldnt know it on their own.

Older people tend to be infectious for longer than younger people, but no study in the analysis detected live virus beyond nine days of symptom onset. The results suggest that positive tests after that point find only genetic fragments, rather than whole live virus, Dr. Cevik said.

Because the infectious period seems to peak relatively quickly in the course of the illness, health care workers at community clinics may be at higher risk of becoming infected than those working in I.C.U. units, where patients tend to be in the later stages, Dr. Cevik added.

The analysis underscores data that has accumulated since March. In July, based on similar evidence, the C.D.C. truncated its recommendation for isolation to 10 days from 14 days.

But even at 10 days, the isolation period may be too long for many people, experts said. Patients may be financially unable to isolate for so long, or they may not feel sick enough to want to do so.

If you could make that shorter for people, I think that would really help people comply with the public health guidelines, said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist affiliated with the Center for Global Health Science and Security at Georgetown University, referring to the recommended isolation period.

But the new analysis is limited by the fact that only a few of the included studies looked at live virus, she added.

Some people who are older or very sick may be infectious for longer than a week. But if a shorter recommended period encourages more people to isolate, the benefit will more than offset any risk to the community from the small amount of virus that a few patients may still carry after five days, said Dr. Stefan Baral, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University.

Confused by the terms about coronavirus testing? Let us help:

But some doctors said that they were not convinced by the analysis that five days of isolation would prevent transmission from a majority of people.

Theres a sweet spot there, I would imagine, but I havent figured out where that is, said Dr. Taison Bell, a critical care and infectious disease physician at the University of Virginia.

Dr. Cevik and other experts suggest that people can isolate as soon as they experience even mild symptoms, such as a sore throat or head and body aches without venturing out for a P.C.R. test right when they are most infectious.

But Dr. Bell said he was unsure how this would work in practice, because these early symptoms were similar to those from other viral infections, including the common cold.

Dr. Cevik said a P.C.R. test could be performed after isolation ended to confirm the diagnosis. Alternately, it may make sense to take a rapid antigen test which can detect high amounts of virus while isolating, so as to confirm an active coronavirus infection.

Other experts also endorsed the use of at-home rapid tests. I think thats a lovely solution, Dr. Ranney said. If you have symptoms, and you have a reliable test that you can do at home, stay home, test at home and isolate for five days.

Over all, the new analysis underscores how quickly the coronavirus blooms in the body and the speed with which both patients and doctors must respond to keep it contained, Dr. Baral said. Levels of the MERS virus peak at seven to 10 days from symptom onset, and those of the SARS virus peak at Days 10 to 14.

By contrast, the new coronavirus moves quick, Dr. Baral said. Its a very difficult virus to control, as compared to SARS.

Home isolation is safe for most of those newly infected with the coronavirus, he added essentially the model of care that doctors use for patients suspected of having influenza.

Some countries already have adopted policies to make it easier for people to isolate. Vietnam provides income support to people who need to take time off work. Until May, the Japanese government asked patients who were young and had mild symptoms to stay home for four days before seeking testing.

Japans guidelines now ask patients to consult by phone with their doctors and to seek testing only if they seem likely to be infected. Anyone who tests positive is admitted to a hospital or a hotel to isolate. In the United States, New York City and Vermont have made similar accommodations available to infected patients.

Even if the rest of the country doesnt implement such policies, having patients isolate at home while wearing a mask, keeping windows open, cleaning high-touch surfaces and staying far from other household members is more feasible for five days than for 10, Dr. Baral said.

I do think theres an element of diminishing returns with those last four or five days, he said. An intense amount of isolation during that first five to seven days would avert a ton of infections a ton.

Makiko Inoue contributed reporting from Tokyo.

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Should Isolation Periods Be Shorter for People With Covid-19? - The New York Times

BALTIMORE (WJZ) The Baltimore Ravens continue to make numerous roster moves due to an outbreak of COVID-19 within the team.

As of Monday, 21 Ravens have been put on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. On Monday, the team officially placed Mark Andrews, Matthew Judon, Willie Snead IV and Terrell Bonds on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. Bonds had already been on injured reserve.

The team activated four players from the list on Monday: Jaylon Ferguson, D.J. Fluker, Iman Marshall and Broderick Washington. Tyre Phillips was also activated from injured reserve.

This comes as the outbreak within the team appears to only grow larger by the day.

As of Sunday night, at least 12 Ravens players and eight members of Baltimores staff had tested positive for COVID-19 over the past eight days, according to CBS Sports. That includes star quarterback Lamar Jackson, per NFL reports.

Players who test positive for COVID-19 are required to quarantine for a minimum of 10 days, according to the team. Players who are deemed high-risk close contacts have to sit out at least five days.

There are 19 players currently on the COVID-19/Reserve List ahead of Tuesdays game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Heres who is on the COVID-19/Reserve List and when the Ravens added them to the list:

Monday, Nov. 23: Mark Ingram II, J.K. Dobbins, Brandon Williams

Tuesday, Nov. 24: Pernell McPhee

Wednesday, Nov. 25: Calais Campbell, Patrick Mekari, Matt Skura

Thursday, Nov. 26:Jihad Ward

Friday, Nov. 27: Lamar Jackson, Patrick Ricard, Justin Madubuike, Morgan Cox

Saturday, Nov. 28: Jaylon Ferguson, D.J. Fluker, Will Holden, Broderick Washington, Tavon Young, Khalil Dorsey

Sunday, Nov. 29: Matthew Judon*, Mark Andrews*, Willie Snead*

Monday, Nov. 30: Terrell Bonds, (Matthew Judon, Mark Andrews and Willie Snead were officially added to the list on Monday after reports on Sunday indicated they would be)

The Ravens are expected to play the Steelers on Tuesday, December 1 at 8 p.m.

This story was originally published November 29, 2020.

For the latest information on coronavirus go to the Maryland Health Departments website or call 211. You can find all of WJZs coverage on coronavirus in Maryland here.

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TIMELINE: Heres Who Is On Baltimore Ravens COVID-19/Reserve List - CBS Baltimore

Yale undergraduate Henry Jacob had planned to spend last summer sifting through archives in the United States and Canada researching a proposed senior thesis on the Knights of the Golden Circle, a secretive militant group that sought to form a slave empire in the Americas during the U.S. Civil War.

The pandemic upended his plans. The archival repositories were closed. His thesis idea was shelved. The inability to access physical records made the rising senior and Saybrook College resident consider the importance of oral histories in capturing events for posterity.

Then Jacob had a conversation with Adam Haliburton 06 B.A., a resident graduate affiliate at Saybrook who studies East Asian languages and literature. Meant to be an interview forThe Yale Historical Review, a campus journal that Jacob edits, it became a two-hour tte--tte about Saybrook a topic of mutual affection. Jacob hadnt been to the college since the pandemic struck in March. Haliburton had hardly left.

Their discussion sparked an idea that has blossomed into Say and Seal: Lives at Yale During COVID-19, a new podcast that documents this difficult period on campus through the voices and experiences of those living through it.

We hope to provide a singular record of this time on campus, said Jacob, who is majoring in history and pursuing a Certificate in Spanish. Were recording the experiences of Yale students, faculty, and staff so that 50 years from now, researchers can get a sense of how the coronavirus shaped life on and off campus. There is no shortage of interesting stories happening now and we want to preserve some of them for the future.

Before launching the project, the pair enlisted the help of Micah Young 21, Jacobs former suitemate. The three then contacted University Archivist Michael Lotstein, who is leading theHelp Us Make History project, which encourages Yale students to share their academic and personal experiences during the pandemic with an eye toward helping future scholars understand this extraordinary time. Lotstein, a Saybrook College fellow, was excited to collaborate with them; he said the podcast nicely complements his own efforts to record this era for Yales archives.

You can't get a more firsthand account of the experiences of students during the pandemic in their own words than this podcast, Lotstein said. Its just a terrific student-guided project. I think it'll become a very rich and important historical resource.

Lotstein arranged for a web platform for the podcast and put the three creators in touch with Ryan McEvoy, a producer at the Yale Broadcast Studio, who has provided them key technical support. (None had any prior experience producing a podcast.)

The three recorded a brief introductory episode in which they share their own pandemic stories. Jacob, who is from New Haven, has been living with his parents since campus was closed last spring, occupying the third floor of their home. Young, who is from San Francisco, is living in off-campus housing. Haliburton spent the summer in the college with the head, dean, resident fellows, and their families, likening it to living aboard a vessel at sea.

It was something between a ghost ship and something manned with a skeleton crew, Haliburton said of his experience.

The three producers fondness for Saybrook is reflected in the podcasts title, whichreferences the colleges arms and badge.

The first full episode,which is now available, focuses on undergraduates who opted to take a gap year. It features interviews with three students: Liam Elkind, a rising senior and co-founder ofInvisible Hands, a New York City-based nonprofit organization that delivers groceries, medicine, and other essentials to at-risk individuals; Kari Hustad, a rising senior and film studies major, who took the semester off because COVID-related restrictions made it difficult to produce a high-quality senior film project; and Isabella Smeets, a first-year student who is volunteering with Sweet Readers, a non-profit that pairs middle school students with adults living with Alzheimers Disease, and is also studying ancient Greek online and volunteering with The Yale Review.

The interviews have a conversational tone. Jacob, Young, and Haliburton take turns asking questions, drawing out information about their subjects projects, motivations, and lifestyles amid the pandemic. They illicit small details, such as what shows the students are watching. (Elkind enthusiastically endorses the sitcom Jane the Virgin.)

The little details are important to creating a robust record, Jacob said.

The historical record is riddled with all kinds of discrepancies, pauses, and silences due to natural disasters like fires and earthquakes, or peoples inability to write, or sources being lost over time, he said. As someone who had planned to work in archives this summer, I just believe these small details can be really productive and become increasingly valuable with time.

The next episode will focus on peoples reactions to the recent national elections. The producers plan 9 or 10 episodes altogether and welcome ideas about potential subjects for future installments.

Young, who composed the podcasts theme music, said the project is about more than simply creating a record: Its also a way to stay in touch while so many people are dispersed and isolated due to the virus.

A podcast is a COVID-safe form of communication, said Young, who is majoring in economics and African studies. It can be an effective way to build and maintain community during this difficult situation.

The podcast is available on the Yale Librarys Department of Manuscripts and Archives website.It is also available onSpotify,Soundcloud,and Apple iTunes. Anyone interested in submitting ideas or getting involved should contactHenry Jacob.

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Podcast documents Yale in the time of COVID-19 - Yale News

The United States passed four million cases of the coronavirus for November on Saturday, more than double the record 1.9 million cases set in October.

Now experts have warned Americans to expect that sharp rise in cases to continue, due in part to the Thanksgiving holiday potentially worsening heading into the December holiday season.

What we expect, unfortunately, as we go for the next couple of weeks into December, is that we might see a surge superimposed on the surge we are already in, Dr Anthony Fauci said in an interview on NBC News Meet the Press on Sunday.

The governments leading infectious disease expert added officials tried to get the word out for people, as difficult as it is, to really not have large gatherings but ultimately the travel industry suggested many Americans didnt heed calls to stay home.

Airline and transportation authorities report Americans traveled by the millions over the weekend, and amid Black Friday, retailers experienced large crowds and overnight lines despite government and merchant pleas to primarily shop online.

US surgeon general Jerome Adams acknowledged the surge on Sunday, adding that he expects the rise to continue. Covid-19 has now killed more than 265,000 people in America, with 1,192 new deaths from the virus reported on Saturday.

I want to be straight with the American people, its gonna get worse over the next several weeks, he told on Fox News Sunday. The actions that we take in the next several days will determine how bad it is or whether or not we continue to flatten our curve.

According to Covid-19 tracking data, more than 1.1 million people tested positive for the virus in the past week, an average of 170,000 people a day. On Saturday, public health officials reported a daily record of 91,635 hospitalizations.

In an interview with Fox News Sunday, New Jersey governor Phil Murphy said another state shutdown is not out of the question but, for now, he would just beg folks, particularly in the holiday season, to keep [their] guard up.

In terms of a shutdown, I dont anticipate it, and I sure as heck dont want to go that route, Murphy added.

Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson later told the show a state lockdown is the last resort. Were not trying to shut down businesses that are doing a good job, Hutchinson, a Republican, said. We realize that you can really increase problems across the board if you start shutting down businesses, putting people unemployed going into Christmas season.

In New York City, officials announced public schools will begin a phased reopening of in-person learning starting on 7 December.

Retailers had reported a far more muted Black Friday this year. Its not Black Friday. Its not people waiting in line the way were used to, Marshal Cohen, chief retail analyst at The NPD Group said, told NBC.

Meanwhile, health officials in Californias largest cities Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose and San Francisco have now imposed the strictest stay-at-home measures since spring in response to the national case surge.

The state reported 15,614 new Covid-19 cases and 32 new deaths on Sunday, bringing the state count to 1,198,934 cases and the death toll to 19,121 since the pandemic began, according to figures released by the California Department of Public Health.

Los Angeles county will impose a lockdown calling for its 10 million residents to stay home beginning Monday.

Santa Clara county is banning all high school, collegiate and professional sports and imposing a quarantine for those traveling into the region from more than 150 miles away.

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US hits four million monthly Covid-19 cases as Fauci warns of holiday surge - The Guardian

With concerns that Thanksgiving gatherings could produce a surge on top of a surge of COVID-19 cases, Illinois wont be moving from Tier 3 COVID-19 restrictions for at least the next few weeks, Gov. JB Pritzker said Monday.

While cases have dropped, hospitalizations remain highest since the spring surge, Pritzker said.

If we are not especially careful right now, the surge will overwhelm our health care system, Pritzker said in explaining why he intends to keep restrictions in place, even if cases continue to decrease in the short-term.

The states public health director, Dr. Ngozi Ezike, also recommended that anyone who got together with people outside of their immediate family for Thanksgiving get tested for the virus six or seven days after they spent time with others, saying that could help identify any COVID-19 spread.

Illinois public health officials reported 6,190 more probable and confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the past 24 hours and 85 more people have died of the virus. Officials also say more than 5,849 people were in the hospital with COVID-19 as of Sunday night.

But what do the COVID-19 numbers actually tell us about how effective the measures have been so far? Furthermore, what can Illinois expect from this holiday season?

We took those questions to experts at Northwestern and University of Chicago Medical Centers.

Todays positive test results are really a snapshot from COVID-19 cases contracted an average of seven days before.

Pritzker noted Monday that the downward trend in case counts in the past week are not from Tier 3 restrictions which are from 10 days ago but rather more likely from the restrictions and adherence from weeks before.

The state shut down indoor dining and bars in much of the state around Oct. 30. Tier 3 restrictions went into effect Nov. 20, and cases have gone down in both Chicago and Illinois as a whole.

On Nov. 20, Illinois reported 12,954 new probable and confirmed cases of COVID-19. Over the past week, the state has averaged 8,812 cases a day. Thats a more than 20% decrease from the week prior.

What explains that drop? Again, its unclear.

Epidemiologists say that the most recent drop may be more about testing than cases.

Over the weekend, fewer people were tested for COVID-19 in Illinois than in the week prior, which could potentially contribute to the decline in positive cases were seeing right now. The Thanksgiving holiday also fell on a weekend, which means that test results can be delayed a bit.

On top of that, to give healthcare workers a break, some testing centers were also closed.

University of Chicago Hospital epidemiologist Emily Landon said the push of restrictions against the pull of holiday gatherings make it even more difficult to understand what exactly is happening right now.

I know that people are thrilled to see the numbers going down a little bit, and would like to see us stop some of the mitigations now, but I dont think thats a good idea, she said. You have to keep doing them for longer than youd think you have to.

Understand that the states numbers are merely a sketch of the pandemic situation at any given time. Doctors said that hospitalization rates tell you more about how serious the pandemic is, which Pritzker alluded to Monday.

An average of 5,944 people have been in the hospital for COVID-19 during the last seven days. Those people caught the virus within the last two to three weeks, on average.

Beating back COVID-19 is like stopping a tidal wave, said University of Chicago Hospital epidemiologist Emily Landon. You cant you can only slow it and the goal is to use restrictions to break the surge a little at a time.

Well know in about seven to 10 days what the initial wave of infections looks like. But it will take three to four weeks to understand the holidays full impact. Its more than just the people who were infected at a Thanksgiving gathering its a potential exponential spread of the virus.

Any one transmission event is not the real problem, Landon said. Its that those people then go out and infect two more people and those people go out and infect two more people. After two or three incubation periods, you have a massive outbreak.

Landon hopes that the Tier 3 mitigations put in place before Thanksgiving could have led to fewer people being exposed to COVID-19 ahead of the holiday. Those same restrictions could then limit someone who was infected at a gathering from spreading the virus throughout the community.

Its hard to say exactly how many people traveled and how many stayed home in Illinois. AAA estimated that 2.4 million people in Illinois were expected to travel over the Thanksgiving holiday, but that number could be lower as people monitored COVID-19 cases.

Nationally, CNN reports that 9.4 million people flew between the Friday before Thanksgiving and Sunday. Thats an all time high during the pandemic.

We dont know how many people attended unmasked gatherings, which is the real issue.

Lori Post is a professor of emergency medicine at Northwestern University who closely surveils COVID-19 data. She is expecting a God awful upward spike in cases about a week from now. Theres quite a few risk factors at play as the pandemic is accelerating all across the country.

Emissions data shows that people are moving around more now than they were during spring lockdowns, and activities once considered nonessential are commonplace.

Not only are people travelling for the holiday, many students were sent home from college the rest of the year, because universities didnt want them bringing COVID-19 back to campus, Post said. Theyre more likely to be asymptomatic and infect older, less healthy relatives.

Statistically, the United States also has higher incidences of COVID-19 risk factors like heart disease, hypertension and diabetes, compared to other countries.

And in the spring, during the last peak, the virus was less prevalent outside of large urban areas. Now its everywhere, Post said.

Post, who is from Oklahoma, compared the dip in case numbers in the state to the calm before a tornado.

Right before a tornado touches down everything is still, she said. Thats where were at right now, and were about ready to go for a really big ride here.

If people gather unmasked again for Christmas, Hanukkah or New Years, there will obviously be more COVID-19 spread. But science is not divination there is literally no model that can tell us what the pandemic will look like a month from now.

However, hospitals are seriously concerned about capacity. Theres not much slack in the medical system, so a serious influx in cases can put lives in jeopardy.

Marc Sala is a pulmonologist at Northwestern Memorial Hospital. Part of his job is managing ventilators for patients with COVID-19.

Right now, the hospital is not at capacity, but Sala said the tension doctors feel resembles the very beginning of the pandemic.

Its just a question of when the numbers will dramatically increase, he said. Its just an uncertainty of how much.

He said with the limited data we have, its very difficult to know how bad the wave will hit hospitals like his. He said their eyes are always on the number of ventilators and beds available.

We fear what will come from the winter holidays, he said. Weve seen numbers go up with this most recent surge over the last month. What we really dont want to have happen is a punctuated onslaught of new cases in the next week.

Vivian McCall is a news intern at WBEZ. Follow her @MVivianMcCall.

Originally posted here:

Experts Say Its Too Soon To Predict Illinois Post-Thanksgiving COVID-19 Surge - WBEZ

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AISD goes virtual this week, will begin COVID-19 rapid testing Wednesday - KXAN.com

Indiana health officials plan to have a school coronavirus case dashboard operational online by the end of September. Here's what we know so far. Wochit

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Nearly 2,000 additional cases of COVID-19 in Indiana schools were reported Monday by the Indiana State Department of Health. The majority of the cases occurred last week, but some date back to earlier in the month, according to the weekly dashboard update.

Of the additional cases reported Monday, 1,234 occurred instudents, 311 occurred inteachers and 368occurred in school staff members. This week's numbers show a marked drop in newly reported cases compared to the two weeks prior, likely due to the number of schools moving back to virtual learning. Schools do not have to report cases that occur in students who are receiving instruction entirely online.

Schools and students have had to make big adjustments this year, like wearing masks throughout the school day.(Photo: Kelly Wilkinson/IndyStar)

Coronavirus in Indiana: These schools going to eLearning or hybrid due to COVID-19 cases

In Marion County, the health department has ordered all schools closed from now until mid-January, in response to a dramatic increase in COVID-19 cases. The positivity rate among school-age students has risen above thresholds that the county health department deemed safe as high as 18% for high school students.

The state department of health updates its dashboard of COVID-19 cases in schools weekly on Mondays and the current totals since the start of the school year are 11,677 students, 2,486teachers and2,899staff members statewide more than 17,000cases total. There are roughly 1.1 million students in the state, according to the Indiana Department of Education.

Participation in the state dashboard is not mandatory for schools, and 386schools have yet to report to the state. Of the schools that have reported to the state, the number that have not seen a case yet continues to drop. As of Monday, 1,775schools have at least one case and 205have no cases.

For the data that has been reported, the state dashboard lists data by school. IndyStar has compiled totals for public schooldistricts in Central Indiana those in Boone, Hamilton, Hancock, Hendricks, Johnson, Marion, Morgan and Shelby counties.

Totals are listed as a minimum number of cases because for schools thatreported somewhere between one and five cases, the state has suppressed that data for privacy reasons.

Also listed areeachdistrict's2019-20 student enrollment figure and the date that the school year started. If a district started the year virtually, both the first day of school and the first day with the option of in-person class for at least some students are listed.

Here's a look at the latest district totals as of Monday, Nov. 30:

COVID-19 cases:At least 15students, at least one teacher and at least fivestaffers.

Enrollment: 3,381

School start date: Aug. 13

COVID-19 cases:At least 14students, at least three teachers and at least three staffers.

Enrollment: 1,732

School start date:Aug. 12

COVID-19 cases:At least 177students, at least 14teachers and at least sevenstaffers.

Enrollment:7,435

School start date: Aug. 10

COVID-19 cases: At least 167 students, at least nineteachers and at least 17staffers. The district was first included in the state database a month ago and historical data does not appear to be included. Per the district's dashboard, 274students have tested positive since Aug. 9, as well as 33teachers since Sept. 13 and 39staff members since Sept. 27.

Enrollment:16,664

School start date: Aug. 13

COVID-19 cases: At least 31students, at least three teachers and at least 10staffers.

Enrollment:2,351

School start date: Aug. 11

COVID-19 cases: At least 73 students, at least five teachers and at least 10 staffers. The totals this week on the state dashboard are the same as the previous week. Per HSE's dashboard,45students and 15employees (teachers and staff) tested positive during the week of Nov. 23to 29.

Enrollment:22,183

School start date: Aug. 6 virtually; Sept. 8 in-person; Grades 7-12 moved to virtual on Nov. 16 for the rest of the semester and PreK to 6 moved to virtual for Nov. 19 to Dec. 4

COVID-19 cases:At least 130students, at least eight teachers and at least eight staffers.

Enrollment:10,676

School start date: Aug. 4

COVID-19 cases:At least 17students, at least two teachers and at least three staffers.

Enrollment:1,031

School start date: Aug. 17

COVID-19 cases:At least 108students, at least 15teachers andat least four staffers.

Enrollment:8,435

School start date: Aug. 13

COVID-19 cases:At least 26students, at least threeteachers and at least twostaffers.

Enrollment:1,195

School start date: Aug. 3

COVID-19 cases:At least 35students, at least sixteachers and at least sixstaffers.

Enrollment:4,498

School start date: July 30

COVID-19 cases:At least 56students, at least fiveteachers and at least threestaff members.

Enrollment:4,338

School start date: Aug. 17

COVID-19 cases:At least 35students, at least 11teachers and at least fivestaffers.

Enrollment:3,801

School start date: Aug. 3

COVID-19 cases: At least 119students, at least sixteachers and at least eight staffers.

Enrollment:9,871

School start date: July 29

COVID-19 cases: At least 124students, at least fiveteachers and at least fourstaffers.

Enrollment:9,453

School start date: July 30

COVID-19 cases: At least 24 students, at least twoteachers and at least twostaffers.

Enrollment:2,487

School start date: Aug. 13

COVID-19 cases: At least sevenstudents, at least oneteacher and at least twostaffers.

Enrollment:1,534

School start date: July 31;Mill Creek moved to fulltime virtual instruction Nov. 12.

COVID-19 cases: At least 13students, at least threeteachers and at least twostaffers.

Enrollment:1,877

School start date: Aug. 5

COVID-19 cases: At least 53students, at least three teachers and at least threestaffers.

Enrollment:5,759

School start date: Aug. 5

COVID-19 cases: At least 111 students, at least 13teachers and at least eightstaffers.

Enrollment:8,876

School start date: Aug. 12

COVID-19 cases: At least 62students, at least 18teachers and at least three staffers.

Enrollment:6,979

School start date: Aug. 6

COVID-19 cases: At least threestudents, at least two teachers and at least onestaffer.

Enrollment:859

School start date: July 30

COVID-19 cases: At least 54students, at least fiveteachers and at least 23staffers.

Enrollment:5,031

School start date: Aug. 17

COVID-19 cases: At least 44students, at least fiveteachers and at least five staffers.

Enrollment:4,006

School start date: Aug. 6

COVID-19 cases: At least 15students, at least twoteachers and at least onestaffer.

Enrollment:1,981

School start date: Aug. 5

Marion County is requiring schools to return to virtual instruction by Nov. 30.

COVID-19 cases: At least 39 students, at least 12teachers and at least four staffers.

Enrollment:2,939

School start date: July 30 virtually; Aug. 10 in-person;Beech Grove started the transition to virtual instruction Nov. 10 for its high school, Nov. 16 for its middle school and Nov. 18 for elementary schools.

COVID-19 cases: At least 81students, at least seventeachers and at least sixstaffers.

Enrollment:10,305

School start date: Aug. 5; Nov. 23 moved to virtual

COVID-19 cases: IPS is not reporting cases to the state. It is reporting cases to the Marion County Health Department, which does not report school case information publicly, and on its own public dashboard. The district's dashboard lists 176cases recorded from Oct. 4 to Nov. 21.

Enrollment: 31,171

School start date: Aug. 17 virtually; Oct. 5 in-person; Nov. 23 moved to virtual

COVID-19 cases: At least 19students, at least nineteachers and at least eight staffers.

Enrollment:6,825

See original here:

Nearly 2,000 additional COVID-19 cases reported in schools, total tops 17,000 - IndyStar

The Rapid City Council will consider issuing a mask mandate for the city during a special meeting on Monday. The resolution would require face coverings in certain situations but would have no enforcement or penalty.

A former gas station and mechanic shop has been re-purposed into a holiday shopping destination in the town of Colton. The building was home to Howie's Service from 1950 to 2010. But now the owners have converted the space into Dust to Dawn, a furniture and decorations business, which held its soft-opening on Saturday.

View original post here:

KOTG: Authorities searching for 3 missing inmates, COVID-19 death toll at 943 in S.D. and Rapid City meeting on possible mask mandate - KELOLAND.com