Category: Covid-19

There are some clues already. Researchers have identified an association between type O and rhesus negative blood groups, and a lower risk of severe disease. But while scientists have hypothesised that people with certain blood types may naturally have antibodies capable of recognising some aspect of the virus, the precise nature of the link remains unclear.

But Bobe is far from the only scientist attempting to tease apart what makes Covid-19 outliers unique. Mayana Zatz, director of the Human Genome Research Centre at the University of So Paulo has identified 100 couples, where one person got Covid-19 but their partner was not infected. Her team is now studying them in the hope of identifying genetic markers of resilience. "The idea is to try and find why some people who are heavily exposed to the virus do not develop Covid-19 and remain serum negative with no antibodies," she says. "We found out that this is apparently relatively common. We received about 1,000 emails of people saying that they were in this situation."

Zatz is also analysing the genomes of 12 centenarians who have only been mildly affected by the coronavirus, including one 114-year-old woman in Recife who she believes to be the oldest person in the world to have recovered from Covid-19. While Covid-19 has been particularly deadly to the older generations, elderly people who are remarkably resistant could offer clues for new ways to help the vulnerable survive future pandemics.

But while cases of remarkable resilience are particularly eye-catching for some geneticists, others are much more interested in outliers at the other end of the spectrum. Over the past couple of months, studies of these patients have already yielded key insights into exactly why the Sars-CoV-2 virus can be so deadly.

Disrupting the body's alarm system

Last summer, Qian Zhang had arrived for a dental appointment when her dentist turned to her and asked, "How come some people end up in intensive care with Covid-19, while my sister got it and didn't even know she was positive?"

As a geneticist working at The Rockefeller University, New York, it was a question that Zhang was particularly well equipped to answer. Over the past 20 years, Rockefeller scientists have probed the human genome for clues as to why some people become unexpectedly and severely ill when infected by common viruses ranging from herpes to influenza. "In every infectious disease we've looked at, you can always find outliers who become severely ill, because they have genetic mutations which make them susceptible," says Zhang.

More:

The disease-resistant patients exposing Covid-19's weak spots - BBC News

Starting next week, some teachers and staff in Auburn will be the first to take part in a rapid COVID-19 testing program.

AUBURN, Wash. Starting next week, some teachers and staff in Auburn will be the first to take part in a rapid COVID-19 testing program.

School districts in Washington state are partnering with Seattle Children's Research Institute for the pilot program.

So far, the Auburn School District has received 7,680 test kits. The school district has more than 16,700 students and 2,600 staff members.

Students 11 years and older will be able to participate, as well as family members and district staff.

Auburn School District Assistant Superintendent Rhonda Larson said district leaders are excited to be the first to take part in the program.

"Being able to offer [this to] asymptomatic people ensures that we are having yet another layer, beyond our quality mitigating factors, to be able to help keep schools safe to help everybody feel safe about having their children at school," Larson said.

"We want to stay open, we want to be able to phase in more and more students being able to come to school, and [we want] parents knowing and staff knowing that we are doing our very best to stay up and keep the learning going," she continued.

Seattle Children's Research Institute staff will be a part of the training process.

"We have a mobile van that travels around the state of Washington to primarily title one eligible schools to provide them STEM education. And it is this team that that will be traveling around in the mobile science adventure lab to train the school districts how to use these rapid COVID-19 tests," said Dr. Eric Tham with Seattle Children's Research Institute.

Test results will be confidential and available within 15 minutes of taking the test.

The pilot program will eventually reach 139 schools. This means 6,000 staff members and about 12,000 students will be tested each week.

The program is optional, and will not be required for students or staff.

See more here:

Rapid COVID-19 testing pilot program coming to Washington schools - KING5.com

PORTSMOUTH, Va. (WAVY) What is Virginia doing wrong? Thats what several WAVY-TV 10 viewers are asking about vaccines or rather, a lack thereof for those over the age of 75.

Getting an appointment for a COVID-19 vaccine continues to frustrate and stress out many older people in Hampton Roads.

On Tuesday, WAVY News 10s Stephanie Harris talked with frustrated folks and tried to get some answers.

Norfolk resident Karen Coffman is 77 and has stage four lung cancer. Shes at the end of her rope.

The vaccine isnt just something she wants her doctor told her its imperative.

Its the nuttiest thing what do you do? she said. My oncologist told me to get a COVID vaccine. He said because if I get COVID, if I ever run into COVID, Im dead. Theres no way they can help me.

Virginia vaccine coordinator Dr. Danny Avula noted that retail pharmacies are vaccinating only those 65 and older, which he said is another way the Virginia Department of Health is prioritizing older adults.

But because those appointments with pharmacies like CVS, Walgreens, Kroger and more are made online, many, including Coffman, find it more frustrating than helpful. Many older Virginians are not computer savvy.

Avula said people in their 70s and 80s are also in category 1b the current group eligible for vaccinations unless they are in long-term care facilities. Those residents are in group 1a.

Gov. Ralph Northam also made people 65 and older part of group 1b.

Other states are prioritizing more by age, so why not Virginia? Avula said age 75-plus skews more toward the white population, which has a longer life expectancy. Including the 65-plus age group appropriately allows for better representation across higher risk African-American populations, Avula said.

Avula added that 1a and 1b make up about half of the eligible population in Virginia and patience is important.

Leigh Vitasek says thats not good enough.

Since older people are dying at higher rates, she thinks they should get the shot before others in group 1b.

She has been trying for weeks to get a shot for her 87-year-old mother at an independent living center in Chesapeake.

I have friends in Colorado all over the United States whose parents had gotten both of their shots and they are nowhere in their 80s. Whats up with Virginia? she said.

Locally, Virginia Beach is setting aside a quarter of its shots each week for those 75 and older, another quarter for those 65 to 75.

Chesapeake Health District Director Dr. Nancy Welch also told 10 On Your Side Tuesday that there are currently more than 33,000 persons on Chesapeakes waitlist and the average age is 62.

So that tells me that a major portion are seniors, Welch said.

Welch added that more than half of the health districts 2,800 doses allocated per week go to community partners providers, pharmacies and hospitals which have agreed to vaccinate those over age 65. About 25% of our appointments at Chesapeake clinics are for those over the age of 65, and they pull from the waitlist.

However, the community partners are not required to use the Chesapeake Health Districts waitlist because it can be cumbersome.

In Chesapeake, a little more than 13% of the population has been vaccinated, Welch said.

Coffman also reached out to Congresswoman Elaine Lurias office for help.

Luria told our Stephanie Harris that people like Coffman with underlying conditions should receive the vaccine on an expedited timeline.

She added unfortunatelly the failure to develop and implement a national strategy in the months leading up to the vaccine rollout, coupled with the unprecedented scale of vaccinations needed, has caused unacceptable delays to vulnerable populations throughout Virginia.

She vowed to keep working on it.

Original post:

Some older Virginians unsatisfied with access to COVID-19 vaccine - WAVY.com

Volunteers in the Snohomish School District will undergo testing and contact tracing to determine how to best prevent COVID-19 outbreaks.

SNOHOMISH, Wash. Like other school districts, Snohomish schools have implemented new hygiene, social distancing and ventilation protocols for the small number of students who have returned to class. But those only go so far.

With that in mind, for the first time, all of the district's elementary schools are partnering with University of Washington researchers to see if there are better ways to make schools safer from COVID-19 outbreaks.

"Personally, I've been a little more reluctant to go back, but in looking at the needs of our students, I want to see them get back," said Elizabeth Harms, a Snohomish School District assistant.

At the Snohomish elementary schools, the University of Washington is studying whether regular testing stops outbreaks before they spread, which would allow more schools to open.

Volunteer students and staffers will get tested every week. They'll take the tests at home and drop their swabs in bins placed at schools. Positive tests will trigger contact tracing.

It's a science experiment Harms never thought she'd see in one of her classrooms.

"I was a little anxious about getting the test," she said. "But it was negative and it makes me feel safer for my co-workers and students."

"This could have real implications for how you roll this out nationwide," said UW's Dr. Helen Chu.

She said studies in other countries have shown schools are safe for kids with the proper protocols in place.

Asymptomatic spreaders are the wildcard in the coronavirus equation. Chu believes this study will help identify them more quickly.

"Our hope is if we find these asymptomatics early and contain the spread then we prevent a larger transmission event. Really, a strategy where you can identify cases early is the key to preventing outbreaks," Chu said.

The plan is for students or staff who test positive to isolate before returning to the classroom, limiting those exposed.

The study brings some peace of mind for Harms as she heads into the unknown part of a science experiment that aims to bring safer classrooms to everybody.

'We're just rolling with it day by day," she said. "It just feels great, like coming home."

Read this article:

Snohomish schools partner with UW for COVID-19 testing and tracing - KING5.com

ATLANTA -- A new study finds that teachers may be more important drivers of COVID-19 transmission in schools than students.

The paper released Monday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention studies nine COVID-19 transmission clusters in elementary schools in the Atlanta suburb of Marietta in December and January, That included one cluster where 16 teachers, students and relatives of students at home were infected.

In only one of the nine clusters was a student clearly the first documented case, while a teacher was the first documented case in four clusters. In another four, the first case was unclear. Of the nine clusters, eight involved probable teacher-to-student transmission. Two clusters saw teachers infect each other during in-person meetings or lunches, with a teacher then infecting other students.

Educators played an important role in the spread," CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky told reporters in an online briefing Monday. "COVID-19 spread often occurred during in-person meetings or lunches and then subsequently spread to classrooms.

The findings line up with studies from the United Kingdom that found teacher-to-teacher was the most common type of school transmission there, and a German study that found in-school transmission rates were three times higher when the first documented case was a teacher. In some American districts, schools have had to go all-virtual because so many teachers have been exposed to the virus.

Other research has suggested that there's low transmission of viruses in schools and that they should reopen for in-person instruction, a message that President Joe Biden's administration has been pushing in recent weeks to mixed success. The 8,700-student Marietta district, like all but a handful in Georgia, has been offering in-person classes since the fall. Superintendent Grant Rivera said more than 90% of elementary students came back in person, making some classrooms relatively crowded.

All the Marietta clusters also involved less than ideal physical distancing, with students often less than 3 feet apart, although plastic dividers were placed on desks.

The two main reasons for the spread of COVID-19 in these schools were inadequate physical distancing and mask adherence, Walensky said.

In seven cases, transmission may have taken place during small-group instruction sessions where teachers were close to students. Although the authors said they observed students wearing masks, interviews found that inadequate mask use by students could have contributed to the spread of infection in five clusters.

The CDC again advised that schools need to pursue multifaceted strategies to prevent the spread of the virus, including cutting down on teacher-to-teacher meetings, making sure masks are worn correctly and increasing physical distancing, especially during mealtimes when people cant wear masks.

Rivera said the school district reengineered instruction in elementary classrooms, making sure students and teachers spend fewer than 15 minutes at a time huddled in small groups and that children are spaced out when they gather on rugs for reading or other activities.

Rivera said the district had been using Fridays not for class time, but for teacher collaboration. Now, the district is encouraging teachers to stay separate.

We told teachers that all teacher collaboration should occur virtually, Rivera said.

He also said chairs had been removed from teacher workrooms, that copy machines have in some cases been moved to other places, and that teachers who plan to eat with a colleague have been told they must eat outdoors.

Student mealtimes pose the biggest challenge, Rivera said.

To be honest, Im really struggling with it, he said.

Students had been kept in classes to limit movement and keep students in isolated pods, but now classes are being encouraged to eat outdoors, with some especially full classrooms going to larger spaces like cafeterias, gyms or auditoriums.

The Marietta district has also continued extensive virus testing after the study ended, Rivera said.

The study also said that in addition to those strategies, it might be desirable to vaccinate teachers to protect educators, cut down on in-school transmission and keep schools operating in person, although the CDC restated that teacher vaccination is "not a requirement for reopening schools.

American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten said the study validates" the CDC's guidelines.

School buildings can be safe for teachers and kids, but the layered mitigation and testing and tracing must be implemented to curb the risk of transmission, with vaccine availability as another layer of protection, the teacher union chief said in a statement.

-

An earlier version of the story misspelled Dr. Rochelle Walensky's last name.

Read more here:

CDC study: Teachers key to COVID-19 infections in 1 district - ABC News

SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (KELO) Four new deaths were reported in Sundays update from the South Dakota Department of Health as 140 new cases of coronavirus were announced.

The South Dakota Department of Health reported four new deaths due to COVID-19 in Sundays update. The death toll is now at 1,863. The new deaths listed include 1 man and 3 women in the following age ranges: 70-79 (2) and 80+ (2).

According to the latest update, 140 new total coronavirus cases were announced bringing the states total case count to 111,304, up from Saturday (111,165).

While the difference in the total case count reported 111,304 and 111,165 equals 139, when you add the PCR, or newly confirmed, cases (107) and antigen, or new probable, cases (33), there were 140 new cases.

Total recovered cases are now at 107,475, up from Saturday (107,309).

Active cases are now at 1,966, down from Saturday (1,997).

Current hospitalizations are at 90, down from Saturday (95). Total hospitalizations are at 6,524.

Total persons negative is now at 306,471, up from Saturday (306,170).

There were 441 new persons tested reported on Sunday. Sundays new person-tested positivity rate is 31.7%.

The latest seven-day all test positivity rate reported by the DOH is 7.9%. The DOH calculates that based on the results of the PCR test results but doesnt release total numbers for how many PCR tests are done daily. The latest one-day PCR test positivity rate is 8.3%.

As of Sunday, 87,267 doses of the Pfizer vaccine and 97,574 doses of the Moderna vaccine have been administered to 122,625 total persons.

According to the South Dakota Department of Health, 32,653 people have received the second dose of the Moderna vaccine, 29,563 people have completed the Pfizer vaccine series.

See more here:

COVID-19 in South Dakota: 140 total new cases; Death toll rises to 1,863; Active cases at 1,966 - KELOLAND.com

The first COVID-19 vaccines are here. Supply from the Federal Government is extremely limited. Additional New Yorkers will become eligible as the vaccine supply increases.While the vaccinationprocess is underway, everyNew Yorkershouldwear a mask, social distanceand avoid small and large gatherings.

Over seven million New Yorkers are noweligiblefor the vaccine. Eligible groups include doctors, nurses and health care workers, people age 65 and over, first responders, teachers, public transit workers, grocery store workers and public safety workers.

Beginning February 15, New Yorkers with certaincomorbidities and underlyingconditionswill be eligible to receivethe vaccine.

Vaccines are available at pharmacies, hospitals and through local health departments statewide please contact your provider of choice to schedule your vaccine appointment.You can use this website for scheduling a first-dose appointment at a New York State-run site only. Todetermine eligibility and schedule a first-dose appointment at one of these sites, use theAm I Eligible app.Remember: Both vaccines require two doses for effectiveness. Your second-dose appointment will be scheduled automatically at the time you receive your first vaccine dose.Appointments are not transferrable.

COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker

Step 1:Determine eligibility and schedule an appointment.TheAm I Eligible appis the quickest way to see if you're eligible and make an appointment. You can also call the New York State COVID-19 Vaccination Hotline at 1-833-NYS-4-VAX (1-833-697-4829). Once you have successfully scheduled an appointment, you will receive a confirmation email that contains a barcode. You will need to bring this to your appointment.

Step 2:Complete the Vaccine Form.Once you have a confirmed appointment, you must complete theNew York State COVID-19 Vaccine Form. This form shouldbe filled outonline and you will receive a submission ID indicating completion. You will need to bring the submission ID to your appointment.If you cannot submit theform online, itwill be availableat the vaccination sites.

Step 3:Bring proof of eligibility to your appointment.Depending onyoureligibility category, proof can include an employee ID card, a letter from an employer or affiliated organization, a pay stub, a driver's license, passport,or any legal proof of your date of birth and residency. At the time of your appointment, you'll be asked a series of clinical questions to ensure readiness for a vaccine. You will be asked for insurance information BUT the vaccine is free and there will never be a charge to you. This information is for administrative use only.

Step 4: Your second dose appointment will be scheduledautomaticallywhenyou receive your first vaccine dose.Your second appointment will be scheduled for the same time and at the same location, three weeks following your first dose. You will receive a cardonsitewith the date and time indicatedand a confirmation email will follow a few days later.Please keep in mind when scheduling your first appointment that your second appointment will occur at the same time of day.

View post:

COVID-19 Vaccine | COVID-19 Vaccine

Visit ny.gov/vaccine to get the facts on the COVID-19 Vaccine in New York.; The new COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker Dashboard will update New Yorkers on the distribution of the vaccine including the number of doses received by the state, a breakdown of first or second doses, and the number of persons vaccinated with the first and second doses in each region.

Originally posted here:

Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) | Department of Health

The table below compares the most recent week of key data to the weekly averages for the last four weeks.

Defining Confirmed and Probable Cases and Deaths

COVID-19 cases and deaths are categorized as probable or confirmed.

Learn more about these case definitions.

Cases are defined differently based on the type of test used to detect COVID-19.

Molecular tests, such as PCR tests, are the most reliable way to test for COVID-19. Someone who tests positive for the virus with a molecular test is classified as a confirmed case. These tests look for genetic material from the virus that causes COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2). Unless otherwise specified, data on test counts, test rates and percent positivity only reflects molecular testing.

Antigen tests are faster than molecular tests but can be less accurate. These tests look for proteins on the surface of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Someone who tests positive with an antigen test is classified as a probable case.

Antibody tests check the blood for signs that you have had the virus in the past. An antibody test may not be accurate for someone with active or recent infection. Someone who tests positive with only an antibody test and not a diagnostic test is not classified as a probable or confirmed case.

These data show the percent of people given a molecular test who tested positive, by ZIP code, for the most recent seven days of available data. The borough comparison charts include data by ZIP code from the past three months.

The data also show the rate of people given a molecular test during the most recent seven days. A neighborhood is considered to have adequate testing when at least 260 residents per 100,000 have been tested in the past week. This metric of adequate testing may change depending on future testing data.

The charts below show the daily number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths over the past three months citywide and for each borough. This data includes both confirmed and probable cases and deaths, based on molecular and antigen testing, respectively. Due to delays in reporting, which can take as long as a week, recent data are incomplete.

This chart show the number of people tested by molecular tests and antigen tests.

These charts show percent positivity and test rate for molecular tests.

These charts show people who visited the emergency department with clinical signs and symptoms consistent with COVID-19 illness (including flu-like illnesses and pneumonia) during the past three months, and those who were then admitted to the hospital. While some of these people did not have a positive molecular or antigen test, these charts can be an early warning sign for community transmission of COVID-19.

About the Data: All of the data on these pages were collected by the NYC Health Department. Data will be updated daily but are preliminary and subject to change.

Reporting Lag Time: Our data are published with a three-day lag, meaning that the most recent data in today's update are from three days before.

This lag is due to the standard delays (up to several days) in reporting to the Health Department a new test, case, hospitalization or death. Given the delay, our counts of what has happened in the most recent few days are artificially small. We delay publishing these data until more reports have come in and the data are more complete.

Health Inequities in Data: Differences in health outcomes among racial and ethnic groups are due to long-term structural racism, not biological or personal traits.

Structural racism centuries of racist policies and discriminatory practices across institutions, including government agencies, and society prevents communities of color from accessing vital resources (such as health care, housing and food) and opportunities (such as employment and education), and negatively affects overall health and well-being. The disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on New Yorkers of color highlights how these inequities negatively influence health outcomes.

Review how we are working to address inequities during this public health emergency (PDF).

More here:

COVID-19: Latest Data - NYC Health

Idaho Gov. Brad Little received a dose of COVID-19 vaccine on Jan. 25. Ive received the first dose of the safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine! I am feeling great and back in the office, hard at work for the people of Idaho, Little said in a tweet.

BOISE (Idaho Statesman) Rarely has the term cautiously optimistic been more fitting than when Idaho leaders talk about the states coronavirus cases in 2021.

From local public health experts to the governor, the people responsible for Idahos COVID-19 pandemic battle see a light at the end of the tunnel.

All of Idahos COVID-19 numbers are looking better than they have in months.

The daily cases for Idaho are a fraction of their fall peak dropping from a high of 2,298 on Dec. 9 down to 314 on Friday, according to the Idaho Department of Health and Welfares statistics. Hospitalizations of people with COVID-19 have stubbornly remained above 140 people a day, but theyre now at levels unseen since late September. The same is true of people needing ICU care for coronavirus complications about a third the ICU admissions Idaho hospitals were reporting in December.

Were delighted, Idaho Gov. Brad Little said in an interview Friday.

People have just got to continue to be careful, he said. Right now, were in a race to get the vaccine into as many arms as possible.

BUT WHY ARE IDAHOS CORONAVIRUS CASES FALLING?

The Statesman talked with public health experts and Little about what theyre hearing and their theories about whats causing the situation to get better in Idaho and across the country. They said its probably a mix of a few factors.

They also stressed that, while its worth celebrating, its not a cue to throw away your mask and hang out in packed bars.

There are wild cards in the future. Students and teachers are going back to face-to-face classrooms with full classes. A public health board on Friday lifted the mask mandate for Ada County. (Boises mask mandate remains.) And this week, one of the most concerning variants of the coronavirus was confirmed in the Treasure Valley, while two other variants were found in Boise-area wastewater.

People think we are in the home stretch cases down, hospitalizations down, vaccines rolling out, state coronavirus working group member Dr. David Pate said on Twitter. They have no idea what is coming, and now our school boards and (Central District Healths board) are reinforcing those beliefs by their actions. I am trying to sound the alarm, but apparently no one is within earshot.

ARE PEOPLE GETTING BETTER AT COVID-19 PROTOCOLS?

Idaho has seen two major surges of COVID-19. The worst kicked off in October and peaked in early December. Public health officials begged people not to travel or host large gatherings for the Christmas and New Years holidays, fearing the worst.

But a third surge never materialized. The opposite happened. Cases went down.

Everybody from the CDC to almost all the experts have not gotten everything right, because theres a myriad of things involved in the pandemic, Little said. Obviously one of them is behavior. Part of that, we believe, is awareness we did through ONE Idaho (COVID-19 prevention campaign), but we also think as time went on, (more Idahoans) knew someone who was really sick or who died from COVID-19.

Two public health experts think that might be part of the calculus that put Idahos case counts on a downward slope. But how much? Theyre not sure.

Weve been living with COVID for about a year now, said Kimberly Link, communicable disease control manager for Central District Health in Boise. There are more permanent changes in how were interacting with one another, both in our homes and in public, that are safe practices. Masking and physical distancing have become part of the way we live, and that is going to impact the way the illness is transmitted.

Little said Idahoans have sacrificed during the pandemic staying home, postponing trips, not visiting loved ones, losing a business or their job because of the economic toll of COVID-19. Thousands of Idahoans also lost loved ones to COVID-19.

People whose sacrifices prevented more deaths and helped to slow the spread of the virus are part of the reason we are where we are with better control of outbreaks, Little said.

COVID-19 has hit Idaho in waves since the first case was announced March 13, 2020. Fall brought the states worst surge, with hospitals and clinics around the state overwhelmed by sick employees and hospitalized patients. New infections took a steep slide in December. There was a much milder-than-anticipated post-holiday spike in January, followed by a steady decline.

LESS TESTING = FEWER CASES?

Dr. Sky Blue, an epidemiologist and infectious disease specialist in the Treasure Valley, says some people have floated this theory. It doesnt hold up.

A lower positivity rate means a communitys infection rate is low enough that it can catch many of its infections by testing people. When cases are raging out of control, the positivity rate goes up because there are so many people catching and spreading the virus, the health care workers and laboratories that do the tests cant keep up with demand.

The percent of Idaho COVID-19 tests coming back positive now is inching close to 5% the upper limit recommended by the World Health Organization. Three months ago, Idahos positivity rate was nearly 20%.

Essentially, were reaching that point where the amount of testing thats being done is adequate to the amount of illness in the community, because the amount of illness in the community went down, Link said.

WHAT ABOUT VACCINES? DO THEY DESERVE CREDIT?

Yes, but it will be weeks or months before Idaho sees the full effect of vaccines in controlling the spread of the coronavirus.

Many public health experts see vaccination as the clearest path to something approaching herd immunity from the COVID-19 virus.

People start to build immunity against COVID-19 after their first dose of the vaccine. But getting 90% or better protection requires a second dose three or four weeks later (for the current vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer), plus a few weeks for the body to build up immune cells.

Idahos first vaccinated frontline health care workers, long-term care facility residents and staff have only reached that point in the past few weeks. As more people get vaccines, the herd will grow.

A recent decline in outbreaks at long-term care facilities in Idaho underscores that timing, Link said.

Thats one area where the vaccine has definitely had an impact, she said. If we see 70% to 80% of those residents being vaccinated, that can keep vulnerable Idahoans from getting infected and, in some cases, dying.

More vaccines are on the way. The federal government is accelerating its vaccine rollout, shipping out more vials to Idaho and to retail pharmacies including Idaho Walmart and Albertsons stores.

Those factors plus reclaiming doses that were sitting unused in a special federal program has given Idaho a boost. The state ranked 18th in the U.S. for administering its vaccines, the states Coronavirus Vaccine Advisory Committee chairperson said on Friday.

Little is optimistic about vaccines. He said a hospital leader in Cascade just reported vaccinating 500 people a number equal to almost 5% of the population of the entire county in one day.

IS THE CORONAVIRUS CHANGING?

Little said his public health team has always told him, Viruses do what viruses do, and that they change.

Those changes are a normal part of the evolution of a virus. It mutates as it makes copies of itself inside a persons body.

Some mutations can make the virus more infectious as scientists believe happened with a few variants of concern, such as the B.1.1.7 variant first discovered in England.

Little said those variants are under the worlds microscope now, but we think maybe the existing coronavirus (that has dominated in Idaho) may be getting less infectious, he said.

IS IT SEASONAL? THE FLU COMES AND GOES, RIGHT?

Maybe. Maybe not.

Weve seen these waves or spikes in illness happen, Link said. There is some nature of coming and going and what ultimately causes it is, I think, a little bit speculated about, but its not uncommon.

But epidemiologists have their doubts about COVID-19 easing up because its going out of season. Thats because the other classic seasonal virus influenza usually arrives in Idaho in the fall. And it usually peaks right about now.

DID THE VIRUS RUN OUT OF IDAHOANS TO INFECT?

The Magic Valley could be one case study for what makes a virus surge and retreat.

Twin Falls saw a massive surge in October. The regional hospital got so overwhelmed, it had to send patients to the Treasure Valley. That lasted for weeks.

Local officials declined to clamp down on activity while the virus spread. They voted down mask mandates.

And then, in mid-November, something changed. Cases fell. Hospital beds opened up. The positivity rate got better.

Was it because people heeded the call for personal responsibility, donning masks and keeping their distance?

If youve ever walked through anywhere in Canyon County or Twin Falls, you know thats not true, Blue said.

What he and others suspect noting that all of this is speculation is an odd kind of isolated herd immunity.

We have some folks who have been so diligent with masking and isolation, theyre probably not being exposed, Blue said. That group has self-selected out of the herd.

Then you have the others who wouldnt put a mask on if their life depended on it, he said. That group is COVID-19s free ticket into the herd.

For the past year, those groups havent been mixing like they would before the pandemic, Blue said.

While the first group stays home, the virus spreads through the second group. Most people in the second group recover with some immunity. Eventually, the virus runs out of new bodies to infect.

So you dont see that taking off quite like the wildfire it was for a while, Blue said.

But those who havent been infected cannot stay home forever. And those who recovered from COVID-19 wont be immune forever.

Idaho cannot reach a true herd immunity without many more people dying and being hospitalized.

Thats why Blue and others hope Idahoans will take the vaccine.

Blue believes the virus will become endemic, bouncing around forever like the flu. Vaccines and post-infection immunity would likely make the disease less severe as time goes on, he said.

CAN IDAHOANS RELAX ABOUT COVID-19 NOW?

This question prompted a few seconds of silence on the other end of the phone during interviews.

While the board that governs her agency voted Friday to lift Ada Countys mask mandate, Link said the importance of the public health guidance to keep wearing masks has not changed.

Masking and physical distancing, I really do truly think that those are going to be above anything else the things that really get us through all of this, she said. Those are the first things that came on board, and they should be the last to go.

If the virus starts to spread uncontrollably again, it could go from 500 cases in Ada County this week to 2,000 cases a week in March, she noted. Thats what happened in previous surges.

Her advice to everyone? Be careful.

I think that anytime somebody is going out outside of their home and spending time with people they dont live with, masking and physical distancing need to be a cornerstone, she said.

See more here:

Idaho's COVID-19 cases are dropping. Why? Everyone has a theory. Is yours right? - East Idaho News