Category: Covid-19

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There were 1,488 new cases of the coronavirus in Utah in the past day, the most since Feb. 2.

And the rolling seven-day average of new cases the figure public health officials watch to monitor trends hit 1,004, the highest that number has been since Feb. 11.

A dozen more Utahns died of COVID-19 six on Monday, and six more on Tuesday. (The Utah Department of Health did not report deaths on Monday because of a technical issue.)

The case count is 245 higher than it was one week ago (1,243 on Aug. 11). Its 3.7 times what it was a month ago (403 on July 18), and 3.5 times what it was three months ago (427 on May 18). Six months ago, there were 858 new cases (on Feb. 18); and a year ago, it was 364 (Aug. 18, 2020).

In the past four weeks, unvaccinated Utahns were 5.4 times more likely to die of COVID-19 than vaccinated people, according to a UDOH analysis. The unvaccinated were also 6.3 times more likely to be hospitalized, and 5.5 times more likely to test positive from the coronavirus.

An additional 4,598 Utahns were fully vaccinated in the past day, bringing the total to 1,531,881 46.8% of Utahs total population.

According to UDOH, Utah has seen 7,548 breakthrough cases of COVID-19 people who contracted the virus two weeks or more after being fully vaccinated. Thats about one in every 203 people who are fully vaccinated.

Of that number, 450 have been hospitalized, one in about every 3,404 fully vaccinated people. And there have been 32 deaths, one in about every 47,871 fully vaccinated people.

Vaccine doses administered in past day/total doses administered 11,271 / 3,157,148.

Utahns fully vaccinated 1,531,881.

Cases reported in past day 1,488.

Deaths reported in past day 12, over two days. (UDOH did not report any deaths Monday, because of a technical issue.)

There were five deaths in Salt Lake County: two men between the ages of 45 and 64, and a man and two women, each 65-84.

Two Box Elder County residents died: A man 65-84 and a woman 85-plus.

Two Davis County men also died: One 25-44, the other 65-84.

Other deaths were an Iron County woman 85-plus, an Emery County man 65-84, and a Weber County woman 65-84.

Tests reported in past day 8,890 people were tested for the first time. A total of 15,758 people were tested.

Hospitalizations reported in the past day 398. Thats 16 more than on Tuesday. Of those currently hospitalized, 155 are in intensive care, unchanged from Tuesday.

Percentage of positive tests Under the states original method, the rate is 16.7%. Thats higher than the seven-day average of 13.6%.

The states new method counts all test results, including repeated tests of the same individual. Wednesdays rate was 9.4%, slightly lower than the seven-day average of 9.7%

[Read more: Utah is changing how it measures the rate of positive COVID-19 tests. Heres what that means.]

Totals to date 449,259 cases; 2,549 deaths; 19,489 hospitalizations; 3,035,821 people tested.

The Park City Song Summit, a five-day gathering of concerts and conversations about music, will require everyone over age 12 audience, performers and staff to show proof of being vaccinated against COVID-19, event organizers announced Wednesday.

Safety comes before our bottom line and before politics, Ben Anderson, the events founder, said in a statement. We want live music to continue and are mapping our logistics to ensure that it will, as safely as possible.

The events programming will take place outside at Snow Park Amphitheater at Deer Valley two main stages, two tents for lab conversations and one tent for songwriters-in-the-round. Capacity will be limited to 50%, or about 2,500 people per day. The event runs Sept. 8-12.

Among the events protocols: People have until next Wednesday, Aug. 25, to receive their shots, so they will be considered fully vaccinated when the summit starts; staff members will receive rapid antigen tests every other day during the event, and wear masks at all times; and masks will be required for everyone in indoor spaces (such as restrooms), and strongly recommended for outdoor areas.

The summit follows another Park City cultural event the 2022 Sundance Film Festival, set to begin Jan. 20 in requiring proof of vaccination for everyone attending.

This story is developing and will be updated.

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1,488 more Utahns contract COVID-19, and the average number of new cases tops 1,000 - Salt Lake Tribune

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On this episode of The Texas Tribunes weekly politics podcast, Matthew Watkins speaks with Karen Brooks Harper, Cassi Pollock and James Barragn about whether the current pandemic wave will turn out to be Texas worst and why no Texas House Democrats have been arrested since their warrants were signed last week.

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TribCast: How much worse will Texas' current COVID-19 wave get? - The Texas Tribune

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More Texas hospitals are reporting a shortage of ICU beds than at any other time since the COVID-19 pandemic hit the state 18 months ago just one sign among many that the health crisis is on track to reach its most dangerous phase yet, health officials say.

The latest surge of the virus has also caused new cases and COVID-19 hospitalizations to rise with record speed to just below their January peaks, as the highly contagious delta variant rips through the unvaccinated community at a rate up to eight times faster than earlier strains, officials said.

We are entering the worst surge in sheer numbers, said Dr. Mark Casanova, a palliative care specialist in Dallas and a member of the Texas Medical Associations COVID-19 Task Force. This is the fourth round of what should have been a three-round fight. We do have very sincere concerns that the numbers game is going to overwhelm us.

Between 93% and 98% of hospitalized COVID patients, depending on the area, are unvaccinated, officials said. With just under half of Texans fully vaccinated, the state still has some 16 million people who have yet to be protected from the virus.

And they are filling the states intensive care units rapidly.

This is the fourth round of what should have been a three-round fight.

In Dallas County on Monday, only 16 intensive care beds were available to serve the county of 2.6 million and its surrounding areas. The day before that, it was 12, Casanova said.

The state has asked the federal government for five mortuary trailers in anticipation of a potential spike in deaths, which are climbing again after a low in July although the daily deaths are still much lower than they were during previous surges.

The strain is showing across the state.

Last week in San Antonio, 26 minutes went by with no ambulances available to respond to 911 calls from the citys 1.5 million residents. In Austin, paramedics are so understaffed and overworked that some ambulances have to sit unused because there is no one to run them, said Capt. Selena Xie, an Austin paramedic and head of the Austin EMS Association.

Were seeing call volumes that are breaking our records, outside of the [February] snowstorm, Xie said.

In rural West Texas, a school district announced Monday it would be closed for the next two weeks in an attempt to slow the virus spread before it overwhelms the scant health care resources in the area.

And on Tuesday, overwhelmed Harris County officials offered $100 to anyone getting their first vaccine dose, a desperate attempt to stave off what one hospital CEO called the worst surge that we have faced in the community.

The numbers at Harris Methodist and other hospital systems in this area have never gone up this far, this fast, said Dr. Esmaeil Porsa, president and CEO of Harris Health System. Im begging you. Do the right thing. Get yourself vaccinated.

Out of nearly 12,000 people hospitalized with COVID in Texas on Monday, more than a quarter of them are in the states ICU beds. At the end of last week, at least 75 Texas hospitals reported that they had no ICU beds available for patients and more than 50 additional facilities said they had just one bed available at some point during the previous week.

Most of the shortages are occurring in major metro areas, near the Gulf Coast and in the eastern portions of the state, where vaccination rates are among the lowest in the state.

The pressure on the intensive care units affects not just COVID patients, but also others who need treatment for ailments not related to COVID, Casanova said.

When youre told by the powers that be that you have 12 ICU beds in Dallas County, that means you have 12 ICU beds for the traffic on I-35, 12 ICU beds for the stroke [victim], 12 ICU beds for the five borderline COVID patients we have in the hospital right now, Casanova said. When we say that we may come to be in a situation where we are looking at some impossible decisions about focusing our care and our efforts on those that have the highest likelihood of survival so that we can save as many lives as possible, that equation is not just for COVID patients. That occurs for all patients.

And while hospitals are not at that point yet, Casanova said, it remains a real threat.

During the last surge in January, he said, we skirted that by about two weeks.

New COVID-19 cases have reached a seven-day average of more than 14,000, still below the January peak of more than 19,000. Gov. Greg Abbott became one of the newest cases on Tuesday. But the number that worries health officials most is hospitalizations from COVID-19, which hit 12,227 on Monday an increase of 2,186 since last week.

If the trend continues, the state could surpass the single-day record of 14,218, set on Jan. 11, before the end of the month.

Dr. David Lakey, former Texas state health commissioner, said Tuesday that hes not convinced Texas will hit that number statewide because some areas, like Austin, are starting to see a slight slowdown in admissions.

But he also noted that hospitalizations are not spiking at the same rate throughout Texas and that some areas will continue to struggle even if the numbers start to slow down.

In El Paso, for example, one of the most heavily vaccinated areas of the state, the numbers are staying manageable, he said but Dallas and Houston have already hit or surpassed their January hospitalizations.

Statewide, Lakey said, its going to be close.

So far, hospitals have been able to take actions to avoid the sort of life-or-death decisions that come when there are too many patients and not enough staffed beds. Theyve shuffled staff, converted unused spaces into COVID units and postponed non-emergency surgeries.

At LBJ Hospital in Houston, tents were erected to take care of the COVID patient overflow, according to media reports.

At Parkland Hospital in Dallas, officials sometimes hold patients in the emergency department waiting for ICU beds to open up, said Joseph Chang, chief medical officer at Parkland Health and Hospital System.

That is becoming more and more common as COVID spreads like wildfire in the community, Chang said in an emailed statement to the Tribune.

The hospital, which typically has a high patient count in the ICU even in non-COVID times, has been turning away ambulances for weeks, he said.

We have enacted many protocols to make more staff and space available, he said.

But with beds unavailable because they cant be staffed and the numbers continuing to rise, Casanova said he worries about hospitals reaching their breaking point.

Weve surged what we can surge, he said. A power strip only has so much, and eventually youre going to blow it. And I think were about to blow it in a euphemistic way, and in a literal way.

Disclosure: The Texas Medical Association and Parkland Health and Hospital System have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

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Texas COVID-19 surge could be worst one yet - The Texas Tribune

WINK NEWS

The coronavirus is spreading quickly again, and its ready to infect those who have little defense against it children who are too young to receive the vaccine.

Experts are warning parents its not a matter of if kids contract COVID-19 but when.

Were seeing signs of COVID-19 in our kids in Southwest Florida: Eight children under 18 are fighting COVID-19 in hospital beds at Lee Health. Another three kids are hospitalized with NCH Healthcare System.

Some researchers predict a majority of students will get COVID-19, unless we make changes. It starts with the students, but if they arent protected, they can bring COVID-19 home to mom and dad and older relatives. It can impact their education, and caregivers might also end up missing work while kids quarantine.

We looked at what might happen with the delta variant spreading so quickly, right now, in so many different locations, said Julie Swann, who has a Ph.D. in industrial engineering/management science and whose research includes a focus on public health, public policy, epidemiology, infectious disease, supply chain management and disaster response..

Swann and several other scientists in conjunction with the CDC looked at different scenarios in elementary middle and high schools.

If a school does have more protection, more vaccine, more immunity that they built up from a previous case, then, the disease would not spread quite as quickly, Swann said. But still, even without masks, we expect a large number of the students to be infected in the coming weeks.

Swann says masks and testing in combination can prevent 40 to 70% of new infections. If not, we could be looking at as many as 75% of kids contracting the virus by the end of the first semester.

Delta variant doesnt care what state you live in or what county you live in, Swann said.

Florida Department of Health in Collier County says, when a student tests positive DOH-Colier and Collier County public Schools are notified. Then, a letter from the DOH-Collier goes home to both the student and close contacts notifying them. Then the DOH-Collier begins contact tracing

We reached out to Florida Department of Health in Lee County, but we have not received a response at this time.

See the article here:

Expert warns kids are vulnerable to catching, spreading COVID-19 - Wink News

August 18, 2021 | Austin, Texas | Press Release

Governor Greg Abbott today announced additional federal coronavirus relief assistance payments from the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) will begin this week for populations under 50,000.

Under ARPA, the Coronavirus Local Fiscal Recovery Fund (CLFRF) provides emergency funding for eligible localities classified as non-entitlement units of local government (NEUs) to support their response efforts, including medical supplies and hospital staffing. NEUs are cities, villages, towns, and townships serving populations of less than 50,000 and will receive funding distributed by the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM).

"The success and continued growth of Texas starts on Main Street in our local communities," said Governor Abbott. "I strongly encourage the remaining local officials of NEUs across the state to apply for this additional funding through TDEM so that the millions of Texans living in smaller communities are not forgotten as they continue their COVID recovery efforts."

"The Texas economy is the 9th largest in the world and much of our strength comes from our small towns and rural communities," said Lt. Governor Dan Patrick. "It is vital that our local governments take advantage of the funds that Congress has appropriated so our state emerges from the COVID-19 pandemic even stronger than before."

"NEUs can be a critical lifeline to communities across Texas, and local governments can benefit from these essential resources," said Speaker Dade Phelan. "Every community eligible should apply for these funds to further the revitalization of our state."

"As Texans continue to recover from the economic challenges of the pandemic, we must support our small towns," Senator Jane Nelson said. "These dollars will help ensure communities across Texas have every opportunity to succeed in their recovery."

"Its important that NEUs apply for these federal funds to aid in their economic recovery from unexpected covid expenses, said Chairman Greg Bonnen, MD. Texas small towns epitomize our states spirit of resilience and determination, and assisting them will enable the entire state to more quickly rebound from the pandemic."

Last month, the State of Texas began the process of contacting and collecting the required information from the nearly 1,200 local governments before certifying and applying to receive the federal funds into the state treasury. Per federal law, states are required to distribute funding to all eligible NEUs (non-entitlement units of government) within 30 days of receiving the funds into the state treasury. Local governments can contact TDEM to begin this application process.

For more information or to apply for CLFRF, please visithttps://tdem.texas.gov/clfrf/

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Governor Abbott Announces Additional Federal COVID-19 Relief Assistance Payments For Local Communities - Office of the Texas Governor

ANNAPOLIS Md. (WJZ) Maryland reported 1,012 new COVID-19 cases and eight new deaths, according to state health department data released Wednesday morning.

Doctors say the new cases are fueled by dangerous strains targeting the unvaccinated. During an August press conference, Gov. Larry Hogan said the Delta variant, a strain that is reportedly two to four times more contagious than the original virus strain, accounts for nearly every new confirmed case in Maryland.

Hogan also saidless than 0.01% of vaccinated Marylanders have been hospitalized with COVID-19, and less than 0.001% of vaccinated Marylanders have died from the virus.

More than 3.6 million Maryland adults are fully vaccinated. State officials also reported that the state positivity rose to 4.83%.

Hospitalizations increased by 19 to 630. Of those hospitalized, 461 remain in acute care and 150 remain in the ICU as of Tuesday.

Since the pandemic began, there were 482,581 total confirmed cases and 9,686 deaths.

There are 3,645,626 Marylanders fully vaccinated. The state has administered 7,367,697 doses. Of those, 3,734,382 are first doses with 6,312 administered in the past 24 hours. They have given out 3,366,127 second doses, 5,640 in the last day.

The state began to administer the Johnson & Johnson vaccine again in April, after the CDC and FDA lifted their pause on the vaccine due to a rare blood clot found in some women.

A total of 279,499 Marylanders have received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, 359 in the last day.

The state reported 79.3% of all adults in Maryland have received at least one dose of the vaccine.

In August, the state launched a post-vaccination infections dashboard that is updated every Wednesday. There have been 7,033 total cases among fully vaccinated Marylanders as of last Wednesday, August 18.

Of those cases, 627 vaccinated Marylanders were hospitalized, representing 5% of all Covid cases hospitalized in the state. 71 fully vaccinated Marylanders have died, representing 4.6% of lab-confirmed Covid deaths in the state.

CORONAVIRUS RESOURCES:

Heres a breakdown of the numbers:

By County

By Age Range and Gender

By Race and Ethnicity

Read more:

COVID-19 In Maryland: Over 1,000 New Cases Reported For Third Time In August - CBS Baltimore

A patient stands in front of a smart booth, which allows contactless medical check-up, at Hallym University Medical Center (HUMC), amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in Anyang, South Korea August 12, 2021. REUTERS/Daewoung Kim

SEOUL, Aug 19 (Reuters) - South Korea reported more than 2,000 new coronavirus cases for the second time on Thursday as it struggles to subdue a wave of outbreaks during the summer holidays, driven by the more contagious Delta variant.

South Korea has managed to tackle outbreaks since its epidemic began early last year thanks to intensive testing and tracing but it is now facing persistent spikes in infections and vaccine shortages.

The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) reported 2,152 cases for Wednesday, the second highest since the pandemic began, after the daily tally topped 2,200 for the first time last week. Total infections rose to 230,808, with 2,191 deaths. read more

The latest infections emerged around the capital, Seoul, and neighbouring regions but have spread nationwide as people travel for vacations.

More than 35% of the 2,114 domestically transmitted cases were in areas outside the capital, up from some 20% a month ago, KDCA data showed.

The fourth COVID-19 wave has shown few signs of abating even after the toughest Level 4 distancing rules, which include a ban on gatherings of more than two people after 6 p.m., in the greater Seoul area for six weeks.

Most other regions are under Level 3 curbs, which include a ban on gatherings of more than four people at any time and a 10 p.m. curfew for cafes and restaurants.

The government is expected to extend the curbs on Friday, possibly for the four weeks leading up to the Korean thanksgiving holiday of Chuseok next month, when normally tens of millions of people travel across the country.

A shortage of vaccines has meant only 21.1% of the 52 million population is fully vaccinated as of Wednesday, while about 47% have had at least one dose, according to the KDCA.

South Korea aims to fully immunize some 70% of the population by October, though some experts have questioned the feasibility of that goal given vaccine shipment delays.

Reporting by Hyonhee ShinEditing by Robert Birsel

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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S.Korea COVID-19 count ticks up as authorities consider tougher distancing - Reuters

Twitter introduced a new test feature Tuesday that allows users to report misinformation they run into on the platform, flagging it to the company as misleading. The test will roll out starting today to most users in the U.S., Australia and South Korea.

In the new test, Twitter users will be able to expand the three dot contextual menu in the upper right corner of a tweet to select report tweet where theyll be met with the new option to flag a misleading tweet. The next menu offers users a choice to specify that a tweet is misleading about politics, health or something else. If they select politics, they can specify if the misleading political tweet pertains to elections and if they choose health they can flag a misleading tweet about COVID-19 specifically.

Twitter has added a way for users to report election-related misinformation before, though previously those options were temporary features linked to global elections. Back in 2019, the platform rolled out the option to report misleading tweets about voting to help safeguard elections in Europe and India.

The intention is to give users a way to surface tweets that violate Twitters existing policies around election and pandemic-related misinformation, two topics it focuses policy and enforcement efforts around. The user reporting system will work in tandem with Twitters proactive systems for identifying potentially dangerous misinformation, which rely on a combination of human and automated moderation. For now, users wont receive any updates from the company on what happens to misleading tweets they report, though those updates could be added in the future.

While the new reporting feature will be available very broadly, the company describes the test as an experiment, not a finished feature. Twitter will observe how people on the platform use the new misinformation reporting tool to see if user reporting can be an effective tool for identifying potentially harmful misleading tweets, though the company isnt on a set timeline for when to fully implement or remove the test feature.

For now, Twitter doesnt seem very worried about users abusing the feature, since the new user reporting option will plug directly into its established moderation system. Still, the idea of users pointing the company toward misleading tweets is sure to spark new cries of censorship from corners of the platform already prone to spreading misinformation.

While the option to flag tweets as misleading is new, the feature will feed reported tweets into Twitters existing enforcement flow, where its established rules around health and political misinformation are implemented through a blend of human and algorithmic moderation.

That process will also sort reported tweets for review based on priority. Tweets from users with large followings or tweets generating an unusually high level of engagement will go to the front of the review line, as will tweets that pertain to elections and COVID-19, Twitters two areas of emphasis when it comes to policing misinformation.

The new test is Twitters latest effort to lean more on its own community to identify misinformation. Twitters most ambitious experiment along those lines is Birdwatch, a crowdsourced way for users to append contextual notes and fact-checks to tweets that can be upvoted or downvoted, Reddit-style. For now, Birdwatch is just a pilot program, but its clear the company is interested in decentralizing moderation an experiment far thornier than just adding a new way to report tweets.

Original post:

TechCrunch Twitter asks users to flag COVID-19 and election misinformation - TechCrunch

The West Virginia Department of Health and Human Resources (DHHR) reports as of August 18, 2021, there have been 3,246,888 total confirmatory laboratory results received for COVID-19, with 175,639 total cases and 2,997 deaths.

DHHR has confirmed the deaths of a 69-year old male from Raleigh County, a 64-year old male from Putnam County, a 91-year old male from Jackson County, an 85-year old male from Webster County, an 83-year old female from Mason County, a 71-year old female from Cabell County, and an 81-year old female from Marion County.

As we extend our deepest sympathies to their loved ones, we also encourage all West Virginians to recognize the continued need to take every possible step to slow the spread of this disease, said Bill J. Crouch, DHHR Cabinet Secretary. Vaccines are safe and effective, and if you are eligible, please do your part to end the pandemic by scheduling a COVID vaccine.

CASES PER COUNTY: Barbour (1,672), Berkeley (13,702), Boone (2,287), Braxton (1,106), Brooke (2,320), Cabell (9,757), Calhoun (423), Clay (594), Doddridge (675), Fayette (3,849), Gilmer (953), Grant (1,365), Greenbrier (3,006), Hampshire (2,012), Hancock (2,944), Hardy (1,653), Harrison (6,611), Jackson (2,404), Jefferson (5,054), Kanawha (16,350), Lewis (1,524), Lincoln (1,719), Logan (3,517), Marion (4,988), Marshall (3,854), Mason (2,278), McDowell (1,761), Mercer (5,568), Mineral (3,094), Mingo (2,930), Monongalia (9,829), Monroe (1,292), Morgan (1,344), Nicholas (2,051), Ohio (4,607), Pendleton (736), Pleasants (1,007), Pocahontas (747), Preston (3,050), Putnam (5,774), Raleigh (7,563), Randolph (3,117), Ritchie (801), Roane (730), Summers (903), Taylor (1,420), Tucker (593), Tyler (813), Upshur (2,323), Wayne (3,507), Webster (648), Wetzel (1,583), Wirt (486), Wood (8,483), Wyoming (2,261).

Free pop-up COVID-19 testing is available today in Barbour, Berkeley, Doddridge, Hampshire, Jefferson, Lincoln, Marshall, Monongalia, Ohio, Ritchie, Taylor, Tyler/Wetzel, and Wayne counties.

Barbour County

9:00 AM 3:00 PM, Barbour County Health Department, 109 Wabash Avenue, Philippi, WV

Berkeley County

10:00 AM 5:00 PM, 891 Auto Parts Place, Martinsburg, WV

Doddridge County

Hampshire County

10:00 AM 5:00 PM, Hampshire County Health Department, 16189 Northwestern Turnpike, Augusta, WV

Jefferson County

10:00 AM 6:00 PM, Hollywood Casino, 750 Hollywood Drive, Charles Town, WV

Lincoln County

Marshall County

Monongalia County

12:00 PM 3:00 PM, WVU Recreation Center, Lower Level, 2001 Rec Center Drive, Morgantown, WV

Ohio County

9:00 AM 3:30 PM, Ohio Valley Medical Center (Former main entrance/turning circle), 2000 Eoff Street, Wheeling, WV

Ritchie County

1:00 PM 4:00 PM, Ritchie Regional, 138 S Penn Avenue, Harrisville, WV

Taylor County

2:00 PM 4:00 PM, Grafton-Taylor County Health Department, 718 West Main Street (parking lot at Operations Trailer), Grafton, WV

Tyler/Wetzel Counties

Wayne County

10:00 AM 2:00 PM, Wayne County Health Department, 217 Kenova Avenue, Wayne, WV

Here is the original post:

COVID-19 Daily Update 8-18-2021 - West Virginia Department of Health and Human Resources

In the state of Maharashtra, one of the first places struck by Indias devastating second wave of Covid-19 earlier this year, scientists are anxiously looking for signs of a third.

New laboratories in the financial capital, Mumbai, and in the city of Pune are searching for dangerous new variants. They have stepped up testing, to over 3,600 samples per month from 134 in December last year, as they search for mutations that could make the virus even harder to stop.

India is still far short of its goal to increase genome sequencing nationwide. While Covid-19 cases and deaths have plunged, according to official numbers, the virus is continuing to spread in some parts of the country. A low vaccination rate and other factors have left India especially vulnerable to variants like Delta, the strain that helped power Indias second wave this past spring.

We need to track new variants to prepare ourselves for the next wave because waves will keep happening, much like the flu or common cold, which keep recurring because the virus mutates or recombines, said Dr. Vinod Scaria, the principal scientist at the Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology in New Delhi. You cant really prevent that. But you can always be prepared for it.

The second wave, which exploded across the country in April and May, exposed both the Delta variants increased communicability and Indias inability to cope. Official figures show that about 430,000 people have died since the virus hit early last year, though the numbers are widely considered unreliable and experts say the true toll may be in the millions. The second wave pushed the countrys medical system past its limits and led to anger over the governments inability to handle the crisis.

For now, the disaster appears to have ebbed. Indias daily official caseload has fallen to about 40,000, compared with the more than 300,000 it saw during the worst of the crisis. The hardest-hit urban centers like New Delhi, Mumbai and Pune have had a dramatic decline in cases. Covid-19 wards in many major cities have emptied.

Some hope that the sheer contagiousness of the Delta variant means that many people have already caught it and developed a measure of protection. A recent survey by the Indian Council of Medical Research, a government agency that funds and evaluates studies, found that two-thirds of blood samples surveyed had coronavirus antibodies, compared with about one-quarter in December and January. In some states, as many as three-quarters of samples surveyed carried antibodies.

But scientists cautioned that the survey, with a small sample size of 36,000, shouldnt be read as an indication that India is out of the woods. Such tests can be prone to false positives. Also, the survey doesnt represent all areas, said Giridhara Babu, professor of epidemiology at the government-affiliated Public Health Foundation of India, though it could help Indian officials better target areas for testing and vaccinations.

Even if the numbers are accurate, they suggest that 400 million people in India remain vulnerable to Covid-19.

What is going to happen now is that areas with low sero prevalence and low vaccination will have more number of cases and more people getting hospitalized and higher deaths, Dr. Babu said, referring to serology, or antibody, testing.

The potential for new variants complicates the picture even further. Places like India with low vaccination rates and other risk factors are particularly vulnerable to new strains.

Aug. 19, 2021, 5:19 a.m. ET

After a chaotic and slow start, India has intensified its inoculation drive, regularly delivering five million doses per day. About half a billion doses have been administered so far, and more than 100 million citizens are now fully vaccinated. Indian medical experts hope the increased vaccinations will help blunt the impact of a third wave because even one shot can reduce the severity of infection.

Still, only 8.5 percent of the population is fully vaccinated. It remains to be seen whether the country can reach its goal of vaccinating all the adult population of roughly 900 million by the end of the year.

Low testing rates are another factor. India now administers an average of about 1.2 tests per thousand people per day, according to the Our World in Data project at Oxford University, well above levels at the beginning of the year. But its rate is still well below those of richer countries, coming in at a bit more than half of the level of the United States, for example.

Those low test rates make charting the course of the virus difficult. Currently, a large number of positive tests are coming from southern states like Kerala, which in general conduct more tests than in other parts of the country. That state accounts for nearly half of the total active cases. Infections in areas with lower testing rates would be hard to detect.

Understandthe State of Vaccine and Mask Mandates in the U.S.

Researchers are particularly watching Kerala, which was hit later by the second wave than other parts of the country. A better-prepared health infrastructure helped reduce fatalities. But the circulation of the virus has been so steady that it gives opportunity for mutation.

It is cause for satisfaction, in a way, that the mortality is not high, said Dr. V.K. Paul, who leads the Indian governments Covid-19 task force. But when there is so much of virus replication, there are problems variants can emerge, other areas can get infected, and vulnerable population in any part of the country remains susceptible.

Kerala increased its genome sampling early, testing about 1,400 per month since December. Proactive genome sequencing has helped Kerala and Maharashtra in recent months to identify districts where a variant known as Delta Plus has emerged and immediately respond to contain the spread.

But broadly, Indias sampling effort is lagging. Under an initiative organized by the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium, or Insacog, a group of national laboratories, each state was initially supposed to test 3 percent to 5 percent of samples. Currently, the country is sampling only about 0.1 percent of Covid-19 tests.

Should a third wave emerge, Indian officials say they have not let down a guard raised during the second wave. In New Delhi, which was the epicenter of the second wave, more than 95 percent of regular Covid beds as well as intensive care unit beds remain available. The states chief minister said that 27 oxygen plants had been added, and that tankers were being acquired, to avoid the oxygen shortage of the last wave. In Mumbai, about 85 percent of the regular Covid beds and nearly 70 percent of I.C.U. beds remain vacant. The number of vacant beds in Pune remains at about 77 percent.

The emergence of a third wave or another variant will ultimately depend on human behavior, said Dr. Scaria, of the Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology. Testing may find the variant too late, as it did in the second wave, when the spread of the Delta variant did not become apparent in the countrys limited genome testing until April. Masks, vaccinations, social distancing and other precautions will be crucial to stopping new variants from emerging.

A variant by itself cannot cause a wave, because variants can be tackled if you have the information in advance, Dr. Scaria said. Human behavior is as important, if not more, in creating a wave. If the right variant reaches the right population, it will create a wave.

Hari Kumar contributed reporting.

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Indias Covid-19 Numbers Have Fallen. A Third Wave Still Looms. - The New York Times