Philly to require proof of COVID-19 vaccination for indoor dining; acting Pa. health secretary to resign The Philadelphia Inquirer
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When the COVID-19 pandemic hit the U.S., observers (including us) began to speculate on what impact the pandemic would have on domestic birth rates. Both recessions and public health crises have historically been associated with reductions in births. The COVID-19 pandemic, which had both elements, thus had the potential to lead to a sizable baby bust.1
National statistics on births by month are now available through June 2021. We use these data to estimate the number of missing births that are attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic.2 We calculate missing births as the shortfall between actual births and the number of births predicted based on pre-pandemic trends. Our calculations identify 60,000 missing births in the months of October 2020 through February 2021, which correspond roughly to conceptions that would have occurred in January 2020 through May 2020. Births returned to pre-pandemic trend levels in March 2021, indicating that conceptions returned to pre-pandemic trend levels in June 2020. Data are not yet available on births that would have been conceived during the 2020/21 winter wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, so we cannot make a final determination on the ultimate size of the COVID baby bust.
Detailed, monthly data on births that include information about mothers demographic characteristics and place of residence are currently available through December 2020. These data permit an investigation of more detailed features of the nature of the reduction in births associated with conceptions that would have occurred in March 2020, the month the pandemic was declared a national emergency in the U.S.
We make three main observations about the nature of the birth rate reduction coming from the early months of the pandemic, beyond its size:
We calculate missing births as the shortfall between actual births and predicted births. The number of predicted births is based on pre-pandemic monthly birth data, reflecting conceptions that occurred (approximately) between January 2016 and December 2019 (births occurring between October 2016 and September 2020). The predicted number of births account for the pre-pandemic downward trend in births and regular seasonality in birth rates, as captured by monthly patterns. Figure 1 presents data on missing births, dated by month of likely conception. The solid bars indicate estimates that are statistically different from zero at the 5 percent level.
The data show a baby bust of 60,000 missing births between October 2020 and February 2021, roughly corresponding to conceptions that would have occurred between January and May 2020. That initial baby bust disappeared beginning with births that would have been conceived in June 2020 and running through September 2020, when the data indicate a positive birth gap. Future releases of data will reveal whether birth rates equaled or exceeded predicted levels, or whether the winter 2020-21 wave of COVID cases contributed to an extension of the baby bust.
The largest number of missing births are in January 2021, roughly corresponding to conceptions in April 2020. It stands to reason that the events of March 2020 would have led many people to decide to postpone or avert any plans to get pregnant around that time. President Trump declared a COVID-19 national emergency on March 13th and local shut down orders soon followed in various places around the country.
However, there are missing births as early as October 2020, roughly corresponding to conceptions that would have occurred in January 2020. The global pandemic was taking hold in January and February 2020, but it had not yet affected daily life in the U.S. The early onset of a reduction in births could reflect pregnancy avoidance on the part of people who were paying attention to emerging news of the pandemic. It could also reflect the imprecise nature of dating births to conceptions nine months prior. In addition, some of these missing births could be due to miscarriages and abortions occurring in or after March 2020, which would have been conceived in January or February, as opposed to reduced conceptions in those months.
The data show a return to pre-pandemic trend levels of births by March 2021, roughly corresponding to conceptions that would have occurred in June 2020. The number of births that would have been conceived in September 2020 overshot the predicted level, perhaps reflecting a return of optimism. The unemployment rate had fallen from a high of 14.5 percent in April 2020 to 7.8 percent by September. The number of daily cases and deaths attributed to COVID nationally had just fallen following a summer surge and preceded the massive winter spike to come.
The vast amounts of government assistance transferred to individuals and households in the summer of 2020 might help explain why conception rates returned to pre-pandemic trend levels. Congress passed fiscal relief of $2 trillion in March of 2020 in the CARES Act, immediately providing $1,200 stimulus checks and increasing unemployment insurance (UI) benefits by $600 per week through September 2020, among other provisions like expansions to the Child Tax Credit (CTC). The stimulus checks and higher UI benefits began in April; CTC payments did not begin until July. For lower-wage workers, in particular, the UI benefits increase provided them income greater than their lost earnings. In total, the economic assistance provided through CARES Act provisions allowed most households to maintain consumption levels, which likely would have muted some of the negative effects of the ongoing recession on peoples childbearing plans. In a similar way,poverty rates did not increaseby as much as previous experience would have predicted.
As we explained in detail in a previous essay, there is a well-documented link between aggregate economic conditions and birth rates. In short: when economic times are good, people have more babies; when times are tough, birth rates fall.
Here we quantify the link between increased unemployment and the subsequent change in birth rates during the initial phase of the U.S. COVID-19 pandemic. We do so by estimating changes in births between December 2019 and 2020 relative to changes in births between December 2018 and 2019 to abstract from ongoing trends (and incorporating nine months of gestation). We reference this statistic as the adjusted change in births. Then we compare this adjusted change in births to the change in the unemployment rate in the state between April 2019 and 2020.
The average increase in a states unemployment rate was a massive 9.8 point increase. Unemployment rates in Michigan, Hawaii, and Nevada jumped over 18 points. Births fell 3.7 percent, on average, across states. Births fell the most in New York, Delaware, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts. In fact, we estimate that births to residents of New York City, the epicenter of the initial wave of the pandemic, fell by a whopping 23.4 percent in December of 2020.3
Figure 2 reports the two-way relationship between changes in the unemployment rate between April 2019-2020 and adjusted changes in births in December 2019-2020. A one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the birth rate. Strikingly, this is half the size of the relationship observed from the Great Recession. We speculate that the unprecedented government response, including the CARES Act, dampened the relationship between the unemployment rate and fertility behavior.
The COVID-19 pandemic likely affected birth rates through channels other than job and income effects. Worry and anxiety about health effects and the effects of the pandemic on life in general might have led couples to reconsider plans for conceiving a child at that time. The social restrictions and precautions that people took (or were forced to take) during the initial phase of the pandemic likely also affected relationships and pregnancies. To estimate the link between COVID-19 case rates and the subsequent number of births, we relate the adjusted state-level change in births between December 2019 and 2020 to cumulative state COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people in March 2020.
Figure 3 documents the negative relationship between the magnitude of the pandemic in the state and the birth rate. Every 10-point increase in the incidence rate is associated with a 0.35 percentage point reduction in the birth rate. Of course, people might have responded to the national rate of COVID, not just the incidence rate where they lived. The relationship captured in Figure 3 simply states that in places where more people contracted COVID, birth rates fell by more.
In a statistical horserace of COVID-19 incidence and the change in the unemployment rate using a regression model that includes both measures each factor has an independent impact on birth rates. As a statistical matter, the correlation between the increase in the April unemployment rate and the March COVID-19 case rate is low. For instance, unemployment skyrocketed in Nevada, Hawaii, and Michigan because tourism collapsed and auto plants shut down, not because there was a high local rate of COVID-19 cases.
To assess who reduced their fertility in response to the pandemic, we construct adjusted changes in birth rates similar to that described earlier, but separately for women distinguished by education, age, and whether or not they already had a child. Figure 4 reports the drop in births in December 2020 relative to December 2019 for women by education level. Births occurring in December 2020 were likely conceived in March 2020, the month the COVID-19 pandemic was declared a national emergency.
Births fell the most for highly educated women those with masters degrees, doctorates, or professional degrees when COVID began. This is perhaps surprising, given that these women were less likely than less-educated women to experience job losses.
Figure 5 tabulates the decline in births by five-year age categories. Birth rates fell the most for women age 35 and above. Again, this is perhaps surprising given that younger workers experienced larger losses in employment and correspondingly, earned income. This provides further suggestive evidence that factors other than a spike in job loss affected fertility during the pandemic-induced recession. The birth decline is larger for teens than for women in their 20s and early 30s. For teens, social restrictions and school and business shutdowns likely generated separation from peers that reduced opportunities for sexual encounters.
These differences in birth rate reductions across groups of women reveal whose behavior was most affected by pandemic circumstances. These differences do not reveal where the majority of missing births are coming from, since women in different education and age groups account for different shares of overall births. For instance, births fell much more for women 40 to 44 compared to women 30 to 34, but women in this younger age group accounted for three times as many of the missing births because they account for a larger share of total births.
Birth data also reveal that a larger fertility response occurred among women who already had a child. Figure 6 shows that there are larger drops in births for second and third or higher-order births, as compared to first births. The pandemics restrictions on social movements and the associated closures of school and daycare led to great disruptions in the lives of children and their parents. It is not surprising that parents who might otherwise have expanded their family decided to put off having another child during this time.4
The numbers we have reported above reveal that the COVID-19 baby bust to date is smaller than we predicted in our earlier forecasts. More time has to pass before we will know the total size of the COVID baby bust. Regardless of its ultimate magnitude, the COVID baby bust should be considered in the context of the sustained, substantial declinein U.S. birth rates since the Great Recession. The hundreds of thousands of fewer births occurring every year over this period, withno obvious reversalin sight, has far greater long-term implications for society than the COVID baby bust.
The Brookings Institution is financed through the support of a diverse array of foundations, corporations, governments, individuals, as well as an endowment. A list of donors can be found in our annual reports published onlinehere. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions in this report are solely those of its author(s) and are not influenced by any donation.
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Early evidence of missing births from the COVID-19 baby bust - Brookings Institution
Even though the world has started to normalize amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Monday served as another reminder that we're not out of the woods yet.
The Blackhawks had their game at the United Center postponed after six Calgary Flames players and one staff member entered the COVID-19 protocol within a 24-hour span.
"It sucks," Alex DeBrincat said. "You get ready to play and it's not happening. But anything can happen nowadays, you have to be ready for anything."
The Flames are the third team this season to have multiple games postponed because of an outbreak, joining the New York Islanders and Ottawa Senators who each had games in November rescheduled.
The Blackhawks understand it can be challenging to control outbreaks no matter how tightly you're following therules. They were one of the teams at the beginning of the season that had several players and coaches in protocol at once, which included Patrick Kane, who netted a hat trick in his return after missing four games.
"We see that a little bit earlier in the year, we had a couple guys out," DeBrincat said. "It is what it is. We're doing everything we can to prevent it but sometimes this stuff happens. Just got to roll with the punches and go about it."
The team continues to remind their players about the seriousness of the virus, and the steps everyone needs to take to ensure games aren't postponed in the future.
Interim head coach Derek King also confirmed he and other staff members and players have received their booster shots, but the Blackhawks aren't at 100 percent yet. Every player is, however, fully vaccinated.
"It's the whole, make sure we remind our guys: masks, wash your hands, stay out of crowded areas," interim head coach Derek King said. "We're following the protocols to a T as best as we can, so touch wood. Hopefully we don't get something like that.
"It's a concern, but like I said, we're doing all our diligence on this. We're making sure our guys are following the protocols, making reminders, there's masks always out, the hand sanitizer, we're on top of these guys. We can't worry about it. Hopefully it doesn't happen, but if it does we'll deal with it when it happens."
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Hawks trying to follow COVID-19 protocols 'as best as we can' - NBC Sports Chicago
One had traveled to Canada, another to Mexico before symptoms
PORTLAND, Ore. (KTVZ) Oregons first three cases of Omicron-variant COVID-19 have been confirmed in Washington and Multnomah counties, the Oregon Health Authority reported Monday evening.
Oregon Health & Science University Laboratory conducted the sequencing that detected the variant on Monday. The samples the laboratory tested were from:
On Dec. 1, when the first case was reported in the United States, we shared that it was a matter of when, not if, the Omicron variant of COVID-19 would be detected in Oregon, said Dean E. Sidelinger, M.D., M.S.Ed., health officer and state epidemiologist at Oregon Health Authority.
We recognize this news is concerning to many people. However, if history is our guide, we do know that even if a vaccine doesnt target a specific variant, the strong immune response you get from being fully vaccinated can still be highly protective against severe disease from all COVID-19 variants, he said.
"It was only a matter of time before we identified the first case of the Omicron variant in Oregon," said Governor Kate Brown. "As we continue to learn more about this new variant, we know the measures that are most effective in helping to keep ourselves and our families safe from Omicron, Delta, and other COVID-19 variants: get vaccinated, get your booster, and wear a mask. That's the key to saving lives and keeping our businesses, schools, and communities open. If you aren't yet vaccinated or need a booster dose, get an appointment or find a walk-in vaccine clinic in your area today."
Sidelinger said OHA and its laboratory partners will continue to monitor the spread of Omicron in Oregon with robust individual-level and community-level variant surveillance.
"As part of Oregon Health & Science Universitys ongoing SARS-CoV-2 testing efforts, OHSU genomic sequencing has confirmed Oregons first three cases of the Omicron COVID-19 variant. OHSU PCR analysis initially flagged three samples as potential cases late last week after PCR analysis showed they had a feature known as the S-gene dropout.While not specific for the variant, the S-gene dropout is a potential indicator. Full genomic sequencing was completed this afternoon and confirmed the cases involve the Omicron variant," said Donna Hansel, M.D.,Ph.D., chair of the OHSU Department of Pathology & Laboratory Medicine, which detected the three cases.
Oregon ranks 11th nationwide in the proportion of all specimens sequenced during the pandemic. Those efforts include sequencing of positive COVID-19 specimens at the Oregon State Public Health Laboratory, through academic laboratories, including those at Oregon Health & Science University and University of Oregon, and at several commercial laboratories statewide; and sequencing of wastewater samples in more than 40 communities statewide through a collaboration with Oregon State Universitys TRACE program.
Sidelinger added that it cant be emphasized enough that vaccination remains the best protection against COVID-19 infection and transmission, including most circulating variants, along with other protective measures, including wearing masks indoors and in crowded outdoor settings, physically distancing from others, washing hands regularly and staying home when sick.
Here is a video of Dr. Sidelinger discussing the cases.
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Oregon reports first 3 cases of COVID-19 Omicron variant, in Portland area - KTVZ
I hope my vaccination might set us on a path to transparency, trust and, ultimately, equal access to quality medical care across all communities.
Sandra Lindsay| Opinion contributor
First nurse vaccinated in NY gets second dose
New York critical care nurse Sandra Lindsay has received the second dose of the coronavirus vaccine, making her the first healthcare professional in the country to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19. (Jan. 4)
AP
When I rolled up my sleeve to get the countrys first COVID-19 vaccine, little did I know that Day One of the countrys climb back from our pandemic hell would also be my plunge into life as a public figure.
I view that moment on Dec. 14, 2020, now with overwhelming gratitude, as this years holiday season started so differently. The weekend with my grandson and Thanksgiving meal with my mother are a beautiful, stark contrast from this time last year.
At the time of my inoculation, the country was experiencing another rise in COVID-19 hospitalizations.Front-line workers like me had spent months watching hundreds of thousands of patients die, many of them alonebecause of social-distancing policies in our hospitals.
Personally, my family and I were facing serious challenges.
The virus made it dangerous for me to support my mother emotionally in person as she mourned her sisters death. At the same time, my son and daughter-in-law traveled between their home and a neonatal intensive care unit to oversee their sons care.
Avery was born prematurely as the city locked down during the pandemics first wave. Here I was, a nurse trained to save people in the direst circumstances, and I couldnt help feeling so helpless in the fate of my baby grandson. I wished he had an easier entrance into what I considered a ruthless world. I prayed that his life would be easier in years to come.
I was burned out, fearful and exhausted. However, I, like my colleagues, refused to miss a day of work. I was determined to show up for my team and my family.
I had learned about COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials but never imagined I would get the first dose after approval for use or that it would push me to take on such an activist role.
USA TODAY's David Mastio: 'We've reached limits of sensible policy' to fight COVID-19. Now, we need cultural change.
Discovering this part of my identity over the last year has led to a sense of pride. It also led to a personal reckoning.
Thats because some people on the extreme political right and left used my vaccination to undermine the vaccine effort, distort the clear mission of public health and/or bend our countrys meaning of individual liberty.
Ive had to take on another role, that of an educator, to keep people from chipping away at the historic medical marvel these vaccines have become. I want to keep misinformation and disinformation at bay especially when it comes to those hit hardest by the disease.
Im referring to communities of color. As a Black woman, an immigrant from Jamaica and a proud U.S. citizen, I wanted to be a positive influence in a time of need. But sometimes that idea, too, was twisted into a different narrative.
White supremacists used my vaccination to find creative ways to peddle hatred.There were also some from my own community who said I allowed myself to be manipulated.
My vaccination cannot alter the history of Black peoples abuse under the cover of medical advancement.
Nonetheless,I do hope it might set us on a path to transparency, trust and, ultimately, equal access to quality medical care across all communities.
Ive been extremely fortunate to meet world leaders since getting my shot, using my experience to highlight the safety and efficacy of vaccines.
Ive had the honor of being grand marshal at New York Citys ticker-tape paraderecognizing health care heroes;I celebrated my heritage at the White House with President Joe Biden;I traveled to meet with the prime minister of Jamaica, Andrew Holness, and to speak to the people of the island nation.
USA TODAY's Louie Villalobos: We don't know much about omicron, but we know how to respond. We have this whole time.
It has been a long year, but if some drew inspiration from my spotlighted vaccination to get inoculated themselves, Id do it all again. Its a natural extension of my nursing career.
As we learn about new variants, I hope that anyone who is still vaccine hesitant can see how immunizations work to slow transmissions,hospitalizations and deaths from this unforgiving virus.
I want us to rely more on science than politics.
If this past year has proved anything, its that it isnt always easy to work together, but weve also learned how important it is for us to never give up for the sake of health equity not just in our country, but every country around the globe.
I committed to making this world a better place long before I got my vaccine and, since then, have gained a deeper understanding of my professional and personal impact. I will continue to keep politics and patriotism firmly in their place to make room for our next steps, together, to one day reach an end to this pandemic.
Sandra Lindsay,director of Patient Critical Care Services at Long Island Jewish Medical Center,was the first person in the United States to receive a COVID-19 vaccine outside of a clinical trial.
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Front-line nurse: I received the first US COVID-19 vaccine. A lot has changed in a year. - USA TODAY
The omicron variant is raising global concern.
As the omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus spreads across the US, scientists are piecing together a picture of how easily the virus can pass from one person to another and evade protection provided by the primary vaccine doses of Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson.
Preliminary data suggests two doses may not be enough to guard against the variant. "[Omicron] appears to be able to evade some of the immune protection of ... the antibodies that are induced by vaccines," Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical adviser to President Joe Biden, said on Sunday. "The somewhat encouraging news is that preliminary data show that when you get a booster ... it raises the level of protection high enough that it then does do well against the omicron."
Dr. Rochelle P. Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said last Friday nearly 80% of the confirmed omicron cases in the US are fully vaccinated, with about a third also having received a booster. Over a third had been previously infected with the virus.
In the US, President Joe Biden is doubling down on urging vaccines and booster shots until more information on the new variant becomes available. As a result, the US administered 12.5 million shots in the last week, according to Jeff Zients, the White House coronavirus response coordinator. That's the highest number of weekly shots since May. Seven million of those were booster shots, Zients said.
So far, the COVID-19 vaccines have proven to be highly effective in preventing hospitalization and death, with people who are unvaccinated being more than10 times more likely to be hospitalized if infected. Vaccine makers are optimistic the current vaccines authorized for use in the US will provide a degree of protection against omicron, too.
Here are eight important things to know about omicron today. For more on COVID-19 boosters, here's a trick to easily get an appointmentand a free ride. Here's how you'll soon get a COVID-19 test kit for free and details on mixing and matching vaccines.
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Saying that three shots is "optimal care," Fauci on Sunday said, "If you want to be optimally protected, absolutely get a booster." His guidance comes a few days after BioNTech scientists said two doses of the vaccine it developed with Pfizer may not be enough to defend against the omicron variant and three doses -- the first two shots and a booster -- may be needed to restore protection.
"Individuals who have received two vaccines will most likely not have significant prevention from infection or any type of disease [from the new variant]," BioNTech CEO Uur ahin said during the Wednesday briefing. ahin said more information is needed to confirm the company's initial laboratory findings that indicate a third Pfizer vaccine dose is important to guard against the variant.
According to Fauci, preliminary information seems to indicate omicron may produce less serious symptoms than initially feared: "We're getting anecdotal information ... that the level of severity appears to be maybe a bit less than in the delta," he said Sunday.
It could take weeks to know for certain how effective the current vaccines are against the omicron variant. But Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson say they are already gearing up to create a vaccine designed to combat omicron if needed.
Moderna said it could have vaccine candidates ready for trial in 60 to 90 days. Pfizer said it could have a new vaccine ready by March, pending regulator authorization. Johnson & Johnsonsaidit's working with scientists in South Africa and around the world to evaluate the effectiveness of its COVID-19 vaccine against the omicron variant and has begun work on a new vaccine designed for omicron.
It could still be two or three weeks till we know more about how easily omicron can be passed between people and how resistant the mutated virus is against the current crop of vaccines, but Fauci on Tuesday at a White House briefing said that early data also suggests omicron could be more infectious than the delta variant and is replacing delta as the dominant COVID-19 strain in South Africa.
It surfaced in California and Minnesota. Now the variant has been detected in 30 states across the country, from Washington to Mississippi and Texas to Utah. The US and other countries were already bracing for an increased caseload as colder weather and holiday gatherings brought more people indoors together. Now, projections of a winter surge of the dominant delta variant join concerns about omicron's spread.
Add to that increasing flu infections, and experts worry about a "twindemic" of the two illnesses.
In Europe, omicron could become the most common COVID-19 variant in months, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
"Mathematical modeling indicates that the Omicron VOC is expected to cause over half of all SARS-CoV-2 infections in the EU/EEA within the next few months" due to early understandings of the omicron variant's high transmissibility between people, the body said in aDec. 2 briefing(PDF).
Scientists studying the omicron variant in South Africa, where it was first reported to the World Health Organization, have said it's spreadingmore than twice as fast as the delta variant. But what isn't yet known is whether the spread is hastened because the mutations make it easier to spread among people, if vaccines are less effective against this strain or for some other reason. Thestudy cited by The New York Times has not yet been published or peer-reviewed.
COVID latches onto cells using a spike protein in its structure. Omicron has more mutations than the delta variant, which is considered at least twice as contagious as previous strains. While it isn't clear yet if omicron is more or less contagious than delta, the presence of those mutations is one cause of concern.
That may be one reason countries around the world have banned travel from some countries in southern Africa and increased travel restrictions that include a negative COVID-19 test 24 hours before travel, regardless of vaccination status.
Drugmakers are exploring if the current vaccines are effective against the new variant.
Most PCR tests to identify the presence of COVID-19 in the body are free (COVID-19 tests for international travel are the main exception). So it's good news that the existing nasal swab test has been found to detect the omicron variant; a blood test or other procedure so far is unnecessary.
"Fortunately for us, the PCRs that we mostly use would pick up this very unusual variant that has a real large constellation of mutations," Fauci said Nov. 29 in apress briefing.
On Dec. 2, Biden announced a plan to help protect the US against the omicron variant this winter. It includes:
For additional COVID-19 guidance, here's what to know about new travel restrictions, how to store your vaccine card on your phone and what to do if you lose your vaccine card.
The information contained in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as health or medical advice. Always consult a physician or other qualified health provider regarding any questions you may have about a medical condition or health objectives.
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Today's omicron update: Now in 25 states, what are its symptoms, what we still don't know - CNET
PARIS A recent cartoon in the French daily Le Monde featured a bedraggled man arriving at a doctors office for a Covid-19 vaccine. I am here for the fifth shot because of the third wave, he says. Or vice versa.
His bewilderment as France suffers its fifth wave of the pandemic, with cases of the Delta variant rising sharply along with Omicron anxiety, captured a mood of exhaustion and simmering anger across the world two years after the deadly virus began to spread in China.
Uncertainty bedevils plans. Panic spreads in an instant even if, as with the Omicron variant, the extent of the threat is not yet known. Vaccines look like deliverance until they seem a little less than that. National responses diverge with no discernible logic. Anxiety and depression spread. So do loneliness and screen fatigue. The feeling grows that the Covid era will go on for years, like plagues of old.
Even in China, with no reported Covid deaths since January, some confess weariness with the measures that have kept them safe when so many others perished.
Im so tired of all these routines, Chen Jun, 29, a tech company worker in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen, said the other day. He was forced to take three Covid-19 tests in June following an outbreak in the city, and then had to quarantine for 14 days. Thumbtacks he used to pin on a world map to trace his travels have stopped multiplying. Im starting to think well never see an end to the pandemic.
This sense of endlessness, accompanied by growing psychological distress leading to depression, was a recurrent theme in two dozen interviews conducted in Asia, Europe, Africa and the Americas. After two years of zigzagging policy and roller coaster emotions, terrible loss and tantalizing false dawns, closing borders and intermittently shuttered schools, peoples resilience has dwindled.
That is sure to pose new challenges for leaders trying to protect their people and their economies. Will the weary obey new restrictions, or risk seeing family and friends after months of forced separation? The question of just how draconian leaders can be when peoples mental health has become so fragile appears to be a core dilemma as the pandemic enters its third year.
I know it will only get worse, it wont stop, the pandemic will only turn more life-consuming, said Natalia Shishkova, a teacher in Moscow. It is all chaos, like a fantasy film. You watch all these apocalypse films and realize their writers were real prophets.
Real progress in fighting the virus has been made. A year ago, vaccine rollouts were in their infancy. Today, about 47 percent of the worlds population is inoculated. If case numbers remain high, death rates have plunged. Yet life seems out of control.
The pandemic not only makes this months vacation or holiday celebrations seem uncertain, but also sometimes overwhelms understanding. How to assess the avalanche of statistics, opinions, warnings, closures, reopenings? What to make of the big business Covid-19 has become, with its vested interests? What to do about the glaring inequality in vaccine distribution? How to avert ones gaze from the discarded masks that still dot streets, the pandemics perennial detritus?
Once linear, life now seems circular. Schools open. They close again. Travel becomes easier, only for new obstacles to arise. Sickness from Covid-19 subsides, to be replaced by long Covid and now indications that even those who have recovered from the virus might get reinfected with Omicron. At the Paris laboratory of Maria Melchior, a French epidemiologist who specializes in mental illness, in-person meetings had just been reinstated when, this week, she was told they would cease, with a return to Zoom gatherings.
We no longer know when we will get back to normal, Ms. Melchior said. And what is normal now? She paused. Well, at least a life without masks.
In Kenya, with infections declining in October, President Uhuru Kenyatta lifted a longstanding curfew. Bars filled. Musicians lined up concert dates, as they have in many parts of the world, where theaters and opera houses have reopened. Spirits rose.
Then, the Omicron variant hit. Even before any cases were reported there, Kenyas leaders announced plans to bar unvaccinated people from offices and warned of new holiday-season restrictions.
Corrie Mwende, a communications specialist in Nairobi, said she had felt like freedom was coming back after a long period when you could say it was like the end of the world.
Today she is unsure her hope will be fulfilled.
Such hesitation is pervasive. The pandemic began with evasiveness from the great powers of the 21st century, first President Xi Jinpings China and then President Donald J. Trumps America. Trust was dented, time lost. Ever since, a cohesive global response has appeared elusive.
China has pursued a zero Covid policy, virtually shutting its borders and deploying mass-testing, snap lockdowns and high-tech contact tracing. At the other extreme, Russia, despite a high rate of deaths, has done little to restrict movement.
Dec. 13, 2021, 9:36 p.m. ET
The 27-nation European Union is split over whether to make vaccines obligatory, and policies vary widely: soccer stadiums are empty again in Germany, where infection rates have surged, but full in France, where they have, too, but a presidential election looms in four months.
Britain, under Prime Minister Boris Johnson, has veered between herd immunity temptations and the kind of periodic restrictions now in force again to combat the Omicron variant.
In Brazil, whose president, Jair Bolsonaro, has persistently minimized the pandemics threat, the death toll has plunged to fewer than 300 a day from 3,000 in April. Samba concerts are back in the streets. Fireworks, after some back-and-forth, will light the sky over Copacabana beach to mark the New Year unless some new disaster strikes.
Maybe that will be Omicron; maybe not. Some other variants have come and gone without driving the pandemic to terrifying new heights.
For now, every plan is a provisional plan.
Conspiracy theories abound, in part because the pandemic has enriched the wealthy as markets have soared, and punished those without investments.
Yakov Kochetkov, head of the Center for Cognitive Therapy in Moscow, said, In Russia there has been a strong increase in mistrust of vaccines, even the term pandemic itself. This greatly affects the psyche.
Just this month, a 45-year-old man reported to view the pandemic as a conspiracy opened fire at a Russian government office and killed two people after being told to put on a mask.
Anna Shepel, a Russian therapist, has observed her patients obsessive thoughts, obsessive actions, fear of getting infected, fear of touching anything in public places.
Nevertheless, in a country with a deep vein of fatalism and stoicism, President Vladimir V. Putin has faced little criticism for his relatively lax response to the coronavirus.
In Italy, hit to devastating effect early in the pandemic, access to everything from movie theaters to offices has been strictly curtailed for anyone who does not have the green pass of the vaccinated. The government is promising a semi-normal Christmas without the need to resort to lockdowns. Still, the mood of the country is somber.
Massimiliano Valerii, the director general of CENSIS, a Rome-based research group, observed that the pandemic had exacerbated anxieties about the future. The social ladder has been blocked, the mechanism for being able to improve ones position in life, he said.
David Lazzari, the president of Italys psychologists guild, said recent studies in Italy showed the incidence of anxiety and depression had doubled since the pandemic began. For those under 18, levels had reached 25 percent. One in four, he noted. Thats very high.
U.S. nears 800,000 Covid deaths. The United States is on the cusp of surpassing 800,000 deaths from the virus, and no group has suffered more than older Americans. Seventy-five percent of people who have died in the U.S. have been 65 or older. One in 100 older Americans has died from the virus.
New Yorks mandates. The U.S. SupremeCourt refused to block New York States vaccine requirementfor health care workers which allows medical, but not religious, exemptions. Meanwhile, a new statewide mandatewent into effect requiring masks at all indoor public spaces that do not require proof of full vaccination.
Among adolescents and young adults stuck on their screens, often unable to date over the past two years, inundated with online friends but short of actual contact anorexia and bulimia have spread, said Ms. Melchior, the French epidemiologist who focuses on mental illness.
In France, she added, depression and anxiety are at about twice normal levels, in line with the Italian findings and a recent report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
The surgeon general in the United States warned recently that young people are facing devastating mental health effects as a result of the pandemic and other challenges experienced by their generation.
Chanel Contos, 23, an Australian student in London who is uncertain whether she will be able to fly home this month, expressed acute frustration at having been told that once we had adequate vaccines in the country youre in, things would be OK.
She asked a question frequently heard among her generation: How much of our lives can we give up for this?
Governments are acutely aware of this frustration. Nicolas Franck, a French psychiatrist, said, We fell short initially, now we are in the phase of excess precaution.
People are so exhausted their greatest fear is not so much a new variant but a new curfew, he added.
China, through its extreme measures, has been determined to move on. But even before the first recorded Omicron case there was announced on Monday, a sense of normalcy had remained elusive. The second anniversary of the day the first reported patient experienced symptoms in Wuhan did not pass without comment.
Hundreds of people posted messages on the social media account of Li Wenliang, a doctor in Wuhan who many consider a martyr for the official threats he received over his online attempts to warn friends and by extension the world of a strange new disease ravaging his hospital.
I cant believe that we have been wearing masks now for two years, one commenter wrote. Another message reads: Dr. Li, its been two years and the pandemic is not only still here but its getting more intense.
Dr. Lis account has become known as Chinas Wailing Wall a place where people grieve and seek solace for all that has been lost in a remote world.
Reporting was contributed by Anton Troianovski, Valerie Hopkins, Khava Khasmagomadova and Ivan Nechepurenko from Moscow; Isabella Kwai from London; Elisabetta Povoledo from Rome; Abdi Latif Dahir from Nairobi, Kenya; Flvia Milhorance from Rio de Janeiro; Vjosa Isai from Toronto; Amy Qin and Amy Chang Chien from Taipei, Taiwan; and Lontine Gallois from Paris.
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Across the World, Covid Anxiety and Depression Take Hold - The New York Times
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COVID-19 cases on the rise. Graphic Dec. 11 - Prince William Times
COVID-19 in Maryland: 90% of Maryland Adults received one dose of COVID-19 vaccine Fox Baltimore
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COVID-19 in Maryland: 90% of Maryland Adults received one dose of COVID-19 vaccine - Fox Baltimore
Weeks after Merck & Co. scrapped development of its Covid-19 vaccines in January, one of its senior manufacturing officials began phoning his deputies, telling them their work on a pandemic shot wasnt actually over.
The twist: Merck would manufacture the vaccine from an arch rival.
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