Category: Covid-19

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Where to find COVID-19 at home test kits – WSYR

December 16, 2021

SYRACUSE, N.Y. (WSYR-TV)- Many families across Central New York are taking extra steps to make sure their loved ones stay healthy during the holidays, and pharmacies are making sure they can take those steps.

Many pharmacies in the Syracuse area have at-home COVID-19 test kits available. NewsChannel 9 stopped at Wegmans, Kinney Drugs, Walgreens, and CVS, who have them. We also called the Rite Aide in North Syracuse who said they didnt have them at the time, but they usually do. Prices vary from $10-$24.

Check with your other local pharmacies to see if they have them.

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Where to find COVID-19 at home test kits - WSYR

Leicester vs Spurs postponed due to ongoing COVID-19 outbreak – The Athletic

December 16, 2021

Leicester's game against Tottenham has been postponed.

Tottenham have already had their last two games against Rennes and Brighton delayed due to a COVID-19 outbreak. However, Leicester have also been suffering from a significant outbreak of the virus, and Thursday night's match has now been postponed.

It follows Watford's trip to Burnley being called off just two and a half hours before kick-off on Wednesday night, Manchester United's game against Brentford being postponed and Sunday's match between Spurs and Brighton also being delayed.

A statement from Leicester said: "Leicester City can confirm that the Premier League Board has decided to postpone Thursday nights fixture against Tottenham Hotspur.

"The decision was taken with guidance from medical advisors after the club resubmitted its application for postponement after confirmation this morning (Thursday) of further positive tests for COVID-19 within the first team squad. As a result, the club has an insufficient number of first team players available to fulfil the match.

"Given the increase in positive tests among first team personnel, first team operations at Seagrave will now be closed for 48 hours, serving as a circuit breaker to help reduce the risk of further infection. First team players and staff will undergo a subsequent round of testing on Saturday.

"The club regrets the inconvenience caused to Tottenham Hotspur and both sets of supporters by Thursday nights postponement."

Antonio Conte and Brendan Rodgers had both called for the game to be postponed on Wednesday.

Rodgers said: Weve still got a number of players out. Weve got nine players out through COVID and other medical issues. In terms of COVID, were still where we were.

Asked whether he wanted the game called off, he said: Weve looked at that. Unfortunately for us, we werent granted any dispensation, which was disappointing. Weve wanted to support the measures, but when we wanted support for the extreme situation we were in, its disappointing not to get the support. We were touch and go for the Newcastle game. Weve picked up a couple of injuries as well, that are COVID related because we cant rotate the team. Well put out the best team we can.

Conte similarly replied: Yeah, but for me its very difficult to speak about this topic. For sure, the Premier League didnt want to postponed the game against Leicester, maybe because we have to play against Burnley and Brighton. We postponed two games before. I can understand, we can understand.

On the other hand, I think we deserve to play our chance against Rennes to go to the next group. We dont find a good solution between UEFA and Premier League, why Tottenham has to pay for this? Its not fair we have to pay for a situation that isnt our fault?

I understand if we did something wrong but in this way, for the club, the players, the staff, its very difficult to understand whats happening.

(Photo: Gareth Copley/Getty Images)

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Leicester vs Spurs postponed due to ongoing COVID-19 outbreak - The Athletic

Rise in COVID-19 hospitalizations in Mass. is driven by those who are unvaccinated, Baker says – The Boston Globe

December 14, 2021

The vaccines protect against serious illness and death, Baker said during the conference to announce a COVID-19 rapid test distribution program that first targets the states hardest-hit communities. If you look at the hospitalization rates of the vaccinated and the unvaccinated in Massachusetts, if the unvaccinated got vaccinated, we drop our hospitalization rates by 50 percent.

The number of COVID-19 hospitalizations nationwide is down this year compared to last year due to the widespread availability of vaccines, Baker added.

The main reason theres so far fewer people in the hospital this year than there were last year, with the presence of Delta and all that comes with it, is because of the vaccines, he said.

COVID-19 hospitalizations have been rising in Massachusetts since about mid-November. State data show that from September until mid-November, the number of COVID-19 patients in the hospital hovered around the 500 to 600 range. That number has been steadily rising since about Nov. 12, when the number of COVID-19 patients in Massachusetts hospitals stood at 539. According to data released Friday, 1,238 people were in Massachusetts hospitals for COVID-19.

The number of COVID-19 hospitalizations this year is still fewer than last year. On Dec. 9, 2020, 1,607 people were hospitalized.

The rise in hospitalizations has coincided with an increase in the number of vaccinated people hospitalized with COVID-19. The number of breakthrough hospitalizations began rising around the same time as total COVID-19 hospitalizations, according to state data, with 216 fully vaccinated people hospitalized with COVID on Nov. 12 and 411 people hospitalized as of Fridays report.

While the number of breakthrough hospitalizations has been rising, it has come amid a rise in total COVID-19 hospitalizations, meaning vaccinated people are not making up a larger share of hospitalizations. Data show the number of vaccinated people who are hospitalized with COVID-19 has hovered around 30 percent since the state began reporting that metric in August.

In a highly vaccinated state like Massachusetts, where 82.8 percent of adults are fully vaccinated, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there comes a point where there is going to be an increase in the number of vaccinated people who are infected with the virus, said Dr. Shira Doron, an infectious disease physician and hospital epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Center.

If you had a population that was 100 percent vaccinated, 100 percent of your COVID hospitalizations would be vaccinated, Doron said. There is sort of a tipping point at which you are going to see even more vaccinated people in the hospital than unvaccinated.

But the level of COVID-19 circulating in Massachusetts now is extremely disappointing.

Here we are a year into our vaccination campaign. We thought that if we got to a high level of vaccination it would bring cases down, and it really hasnt, Doron said.

The state provides a weekly tally of COVID-19 breakthrough cases, hospitalizations, and deaths and calculates breakthrough rates from the total number of those in Massachusetts who are fully vaccinated.

By that metric, the hospitalization rate of fully vaccinated people in Massachusetts is 0.05 percent, because a total of 2,716 vaccinated people have been hospitalized in Massachusetts since shots began being administered, out of the more than 4.9 million people who were fully vaccinated as of the date the data was compiled.

Last week, the state reported its highest single-week total of breakthrough COVID-19 infections, with 11,321 new cases for a total of 88,968 since the start of the vaccination campaign, accounting for 1.8 percent of all fully vaccinated people. The state also reported 61 more deaths last week, raising the total of breakthrough deaths to 647, or 0.01 percent of those who are vaccinated.

At Tufts Medical Center Monday, 10 of the hospitals 30 total COVID-19 patients were vaccinated against the virus, a spokesman said. Of the 11 COVID-19 patients in the ICU, three were inoculated.

On Monday at UMass Memorial Health, the largest hospital system in Massachusetts, 25 percent of all COVID patients were vaccinated, and 14 percent of ICU patients were inoculated, a spokesman said.

Dr. Paul Biddinger, medical director for emergency preparedness at Mass General Brigham, the states largest hospital system that includes Mass. General and Brigham & Womens hospitals in Boston, said Monday that the number of COVID-19 patients in his system who are fully vaccinated has tended to change.

Our numbers do fluctuate a bit, but about two-thirds of all of our COVID inpatients are unvaccinated, and about one-third are partially or fully vaccinated, Biddinger said in a statement.

He said most patients who are fully vaccinated and admitted are older and often have medical comorbidities that put them at higher risk of severe illness. Very few of the patients who are admitted to our hospitals are fully vaccinated patients who have had boosters. The proportion of unvaccinated patients in the ICUs is slightly higher, closer to three-quarters.

We are strongly encouraging all of our patients to get vaccinated and to receive a booster when they are eligible as one of the most important ways that they can protect themselves, he added.

Martin Finucane of the Globe Staff contributed to this report.

Amanda Kaufman can be reached at amanda.kaufman@globe.com. Follow her on Twitter @amandakauf1. Travis Andersen can be reached at travis.andersen@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @TAGlobe.

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Rise in COVID-19 hospitalizations in Mass. is driven by those who are unvaccinated, Baker says - The Boston Globe

Sean McVay shared his unfiltered reaction to Rams’ last-minute positive COVID-19 tests – Rams Wire

December 14, 2021

In three consecutive days, the Los Angeles Rams placed at least one starter on the COVID-19 list for a positive test. First it was Darrell Henderson Jr. on Saturday, then Rob Havenstein and Donte Deayon on Sunday. And just hours before kicking off against the Cardinals, the Rams placed Jalen Ramsey and Tyler Higbee on the list, as well.

The loss of Ramsey and Higbee was especially difficult to swallow because of how close to game time it was. The Rams had very little time to adjust, and its not as if those players are backups. Theyre critical parts of the offense and defense.

So when Sean McVay learned that the Rams wouldnt have either player, he had the same reaction as every fan in Los Angeles.

The Rams arent out of the woods yet for Week 15 because players can remain on the COVID-19 list if they continue to test positive. And McVay doesnt sound thrilled with how all of this happened, expressing concern moving forward.

To say that Im not concerned wouldnt be accurate, he said. I think you want to find out a little bit more because to my understanding, just looking at the landscape of the league, this was as bad as the outbreak has gotten. And the hard thing is for some of these guys and I dont want to get into the specifics just out of respect for the individuals but for some of them, theres no symptoms. They feel great and thats whats unfortunate. And you get some of these where theres false positives and so theres a lot of mental gymnastics that are going on, but all we can do is try to take safe precautionary measures.

Yeah, it was pretty hard to believe that even after losing three starters plus Brian Allen to a knee injury the Rams would go on to lose two more the day of the game. But they overcame the absences of those key players and secured a 30-23 victory on the road over the team with the best record in football.

It was a signature win not only for this season, but one of the best of the McVay era.

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Sean McVay shared his unfiltered reaction to Rams' last-minute positive COVID-19 tests - Rams Wire

Groton Restaurants Impacted by Rising COVID-19 Numbers – NBC Connecticut

December 14, 2021

Pauls Pasta Shop in Groton is taking a step back as COVID case numbers increase in the state and region. The restaurant will not be offering indoor dining for the time being.

Which is the hardest thing to do because this is our bread-and-butter season, said Paul Fidrych, owner of Pauls Pasta Shop. This is when you make your money to get through the winter.

Fidrych said that his employees are contending with a small Covid-19 outbreak of their own, which is creating a staffing challenge. That, coupled with the statewide spike in cases, caused Fidrych to make the decision.

We are still letting people come in to buy things. They are still able to come into the building to buy pasta, gift certificates and takeout food. I hope it keeps people safe in general, said Fidrych.

Pauls Pasta Shop will reassess after Christmas. They hope to offer indoor dining again in about two weeks, depending on the situation.

Another restaurant in the area, Groton Pizza Palace, is also contending with coronavirus challenges.

Groton Pizza Palace is closed this week while 75% of staff are sidelined by COVID or contact tracing.

Owner Jim Lampos said when two employees tested positive for the virus, he had his entire staff tested. Several more people tested positive for the virus, despite being vaccinated and wearing masks at work, Lampos said.

Its a pretty big hit, but not much we can do about it, said Lampos. Its better to err on the side of caution, I think.

In addition to restaurants, Ledge Light Health District reports that COVID cases in the New London region are being traced to schools and day cares.

We are seeing day cares having to close for a period of time, learning disrupted for children, said Kris Magnussen, a public health nurse for Ledge Light Health District. Peoples livelihoods are at stake when that happens.

LLHD is urging people, again, to get vaccinated and boosted, if eligible. They also stress the importance of masking up.

Doctors at Lawrence and Memorial Hospital have the same message. Their COVID patient load hasnt been this high since the beginning of the year.

Most of the patients are unvaccinated or they are due for their boosters so one of the big things we are trying to get out there is boosters make a difference, said Dr. Oliver Mayorga.

Lampos said that at the Pizza Palace, he is the only one on his team who received a booster shot so far. He tested negative for the virus.

I would definitely encourage people to get the booster, said Lampos.

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Groton Restaurants Impacted by Rising COVID-19 Numbers - NBC Connecticut

Italy and 2 other nations now at ‘very high’ travel risk for Covid-19, CDC warns – CNN

December 14, 2021

(CNN) The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention added three nations to its highest-risk category for travel on Monday, including tourist favorite Italy.

In its weekly update of Covid-19 travel advisories, the CDC also added giant, frigid Greenland and the tiny, tropical East African island nation of Mauritius to its "Level 4: Covid-19 Very High" category.

Typically, the CDC places a destination at Level 4 when more than 500 cases per 100,000 residents are registered in the past 28 days.

All three nations moved up from Level 3.

European surge and Omicron

Italy's move to Level 4 comes as Europe continue to grapple with another surge in Covid-19 cases.

Other nations on Level 4

While Europe is being hard hit, it isn't the only region with popular tourist destinations on Level 4. Among the other places also considered at "very high" risk for travel are:

Barbados Belize Cayman Islands Jordan Seychelles Islands Turkey

In all, more than 80 countries were rated Level 4 as of December 13.

Happening on Level 3

Tourists wearing face masks view from an observation deck at the Kuala Lumpur Tower in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Vincent Thian/AP

The Level 3 category -- which applies to destinations that have had between 100 and 500 cases per 100,000 residents in the past 28 days -- just saw one new addition on Monday.

For Malaysia, the move to Level 3 was good news as it had been residing at Level 4 since June 2021.

Quite a few Caribbean nations popular with Americans seeking warmer climes are currently on Level 3. They include, among others:

Aruba Dominican Republic Granada Saint Kitts and Nevis

"This is a very dynamic situation, and travelers should consider how important the trip is to them and have a plan B and a plan C," said Wen, an emergency physician and professor of health policy and management at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health.

"They should think through all the scenarios for what could happen. Let's say that they end up in a country that is now going to implement a mandatory quarantine on arrival. How will they cope with that? Is it worth going?"

Level 2, Level 1 and unknowns

Jamaica, homes to colorful corals reefs, has been moved to Level 2 by the CDC.

Shutterstock

Destinations carrying the "Level 2: Covid-19 Moderate" designation have seen 50 to 99 Covid-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the past 28 days. Three nations moved there Monday. They are:

Jamaica Philippines Republic of Congo

This was an improvement for all three nations, which had previously been at Level 3.

In the category of "Level 1: Covid-19 Low" destinations, fewer than 50 new cases per 100,000 residents have been logged over the past 28 days. Only one new nation joined this level on Monday, that of the small African nation of Equatorial Guinea. It previously had been on Level 2.

Finally, there are destinations for which the CDC has an "unknown" risk because of a lack of information. As of December 13, some of those places included:

Cambodia Canary Islands Gibraltar Nicaragua Tanzania

The CDC cautions even fully vaccinated travelers about venturing to destinations with no reliable statistics about the current Covid-19 situation.

"Fully vaccinated travelers are less likely to get and spread Covid-19. However, international travel poses additional risks, and even fully vaccinated travelers might be at increased risk for getting and possibly spreading some Covid-19 variants," the agency said.

CNN's Marnie Hunter and Rob Picheta contributed to this report.

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Italy and 2 other nations now at 'very high' travel risk for Covid-19, CDC warns - CNN

More than 1,700 patients remain hospitalized with COVID-19 in Wisconsin – Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

December 14, 2021

The Wisconsin Hospital Association reported Monday that more than 1,700 patients are hospitalized with COVID-19 in the state a steady increase over the weekend.

And Advocate Aurora Health, the state's largest health system, reportedthat fully vaccinated and boosted patients make up only 8% of its hospitalized COVID-19 patients andone-third of fully vaccinated hospitalized patients are immunocompromised.

This data was released Monday by Aurora but is from Nov. 30. The data is fromhospitals in both Illinois and Wisconsin. The largest Aurora hospital in the Milwaukee area is St. Luke's.

Driving home the importance of getting vaccinated, Aurora also reported that 74% of its hospitalized COVID patients have never received a COVID vaccine shot.

The seven-day average of daily COVID-19 cases increased over the weekend, rising to 3,457 cases onMonday.

Track COVID and the vaccine in Wisconsin: Track the latest data on cases, deaths and our pace on vaccines

Wisconsin vaccine FAQ: Who's eligible, where to get it and what's next

The state Department of Health Services, the Wisconsin State Laboratory of Hygiene and other laboratory partners regularly perform whole genome sequencing on a portion of positive tests. The numbers below do not represent the total number of variant cases.

Contact Drake Bentley at (414) 391-5647 orDBentley1@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter at @DrakeBentleyMJS.

Our subscribers make this reporting possible. Please consider supporting local journalism by subscribing to the Journal Sentinel at jsonline.com/deal.

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More than 1,700 patients remain hospitalized with COVID-19 in Wisconsin - Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Miami Dolphins, back from bye, now have three RBs on COVID-19 list, including Myles Gaskin – ESPN

December 14, 2021

3:32 PM ET

Marcel Louis-JacquesESPN

MIAMI -- The Dolphins have all three of their running backs on the reserve/COVID-19 list this week after at least two positive tests within the position group.

Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed each tested positive for the virus, coach Brian Flores confirmed Monday, and were both placed on the reserve list this past weekend. While Flores said he didn't expect those positive results to not be isolated issues, Phillip Lindsay also tested positive Monday, and followed his backfield mates to the list.

The Dolphins were one of the more fortunate teams in the NFL in terms of dealing with COVID-19; they hadn't dealt with a positive result or close contact since Austin Jackson and Adam Shaheen went on the reserve list in Week 1.

"Per protocol, we test once a week. The guys tested today. We just follow the protocols as we normally do," Flores said shortly before Lindsay's positive result was reported. "But there's no feeling that this is that type of situation. But again, I also don't have a crystal ball here, and with everyone coming off of the bye week and kind of getting away, part of our discussion was being safe and understanding that there is still a pandemic out here. We'll follow the protocols and practice the guys who are here."

2 Related

Later Monday, the Dolphins also added rookie safety Jevon Holland to the list.

Gaskin is the team's leading rusher with 526 yards and three touchdowns on 154 attempts. He's received at least 15 touches in each of Miami's past seven games. Ahmed is the team's second-leading rusher, turning 54 attempts into 149 yards. The Dolphins recently claimed Lindsay off waivers before their Week 12 win over the Carolina Panthers, during which he ran for 42 yards on 12 carries. All three players are vaccinated and would need two negative tests 24 hours apart in order to be eligible to play in Week 15.

Miami currently sits at 6-7 and is on a five-game winning streak. It can bring its win percentage to .500 with a victory over the Jets this weekend, potentially leaving the Dolphins one game out of the AFC's final playoff spot -- a nearly inconceivable position after a seven-game losing streak left them at 1-7 in Week 9. The Dolphins were on a bye last week.

"We took the bye week to recharge the battery. I think guys were excited to be back in here today. I definitely felt that in our meetings this morning," Flores said. "The schedule is the schedule and whatever it is, it is. I don't put too much -- 'I wish it was here or I wish it was there.' It was where it was. We kind of use the bye week to heal up, to do some self-evaluation and we treated this one no differently. It's a little later in the year, but I think we come out of it trying to recharge the battery and we're anxious to get back out there."

But as the Dolphins fight for a playoff position, they may have to do so without Gaskin, Ahmed or Lindsay. Flores said they're hopeful running back Malcolm Brown returns from injured reserve this week. Flores also confirmed the team worked out running back Lamar Miller, who played for the University of Miami and was drafted by the Dolphins in 2012.

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Miami Dolphins, back from bye, now have three RBs on COVID-19 list, including Myles Gaskin - ESPN

Early evidence of missing births from the COVID-19 baby bust – Brookings Institution

December 14, 2021

When the COVID-19 pandemic hit the U.S., observers (including us) began to speculate on what impact the pandemic would have on domestic birth rates. Both recessions and public health crises have historically been associated with reductions in births. The COVID-19 pandemic, which had both elements, thus had the potential to lead to a sizable baby bust.1

National statistics on births by month are now available through June 2021. We use these data to estimate the number of missing births that are attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic.2 We calculate missing births as the shortfall between actual births and the number of births predicted based on pre-pandemic trends. Our calculations identify 60,000 missing births in the months of October 2020 through February 2021, which correspond roughly to conceptions that would have occurred in January 2020 through May 2020. Births returned to pre-pandemic trend levels in March 2021, indicating that conceptions returned to pre-pandemic trend levels in June 2020. Data are not yet available on births that would have been conceived during the 2020/21 winter wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, so we cannot make a final determination on the ultimate size of the COVID baby bust.

Detailed, monthly data on births that include information about mothers demographic characteristics and place of residence are currently available through December 2020. These data permit an investigation of more detailed features of the nature of the reduction in births associated with conceptions that would have occurred in March 2020, the month the pandemic was declared a national emergency in the U.S.

We make three main observations about the nature of the birth rate reduction coming from the early months of the pandemic, beyond its size:

We calculate missing births as the shortfall between actual births and predicted births. The number of predicted births is based on pre-pandemic monthly birth data, reflecting conceptions that occurred (approximately) between January 2016 and December 2019 (births occurring between October 2016 and September 2020). The predicted number of births account for the pre-pandemic downward trend in births and regular seasonality in birth rates, as captured by monthly patterns. Figure 1 presents data on missing births, dated by month of likely conception. The solid bars indicate estimates that are statistically different from zero at the 5 percent level.

The data show a baby bust of 60,000 missing births between October 2020 and February 2021, roughly corresponding to conceptions that would have occurred between January and May 2020. That initial baby bust disappeared beginning with births that would have been conceived in June 2020 and running through September 2020, when the data indicate a positive birth gap. Future releases of data will reveal whether birth rates equaled or exceeded predicted levels, or whether the winter 2020-21 wave of COVID cases contributed to an extension of the baby bust.

The largest number of missing births are in January 2021, roughly corresponding to conceptions in April 2020. It stands to reason that the events of March 2020 would have led many people to decide to postpone or avert any plans to get pregnant around that time. President Trump declared a COVID-19 national emergency on March 13th and local shut down orders soon followed in various places around the country.

However, there are missing births as early as October 2020, roughly corresponding to conceptions that would have occurred in January 2020. The global pandemic was taking hold in January and February 2020, but it had not yet affected daily life in the U.S. The early onset of a reduction in births could reflect pregnancy avoidance on the part of people who were paying attention to emerging news of the pandemic. It could also reflect the imprecise nature of dating births to conceptions nine months prior. In addition, some of these missing births could be due to miscarriages and abortions occurring in or after March 2020, which would have been conceived in January or February, as opposed to reduced conceptions in those months.

The data show a return to pre-pandemic trend levels of births by March 2021, roughly corresponding to conceptions that would have occurred in June 2020. The number of births that would have been conceived in September 2020 overshot the predicted level, perhaps reflecting a return of optimism. The unemployment rate had fallen from a high of 14.5 percent in April 2020 to 7.8 percent by September. The number of daily cases and deaths attributed to COVID nationally had just fallen following a summer surge and preceded the massive winter spike to come.

The vast amounts of government assistance transferred to individuals and households in the summer of 2020 might help explain why conception rates returned to pre-pandemic trend levels. Congress passed fiscal relief of $2 trillion in March of 2020 in the CARES Act, immediately providing $1,200 stimulus checks and increasing unemployment insurance (UI) benefits by $600 per week through September 2020, among other provisions like expansions to the Child Tax Credit (CTC). The stimulus checks and higher UI benefits began in April; CTC payments did not begin until July. For lower-wage workers, in particular, the UI benefits increase provided them income greater than their lost earnings. In total, the economic assistance provided through CARES Act provisions allowed most households to maintain consumption levels, which likely would have muted some of the negative effects of the ongoing recession on peoples childbearing plans. In a similar way,poverty rates did not increaseby as much as previous experience would have predicted.

As we explained in detail in a previous essay, there is a well-documented link between aggregate economic conditions and birth rates. In short: when economic times are good, people have more babies; when times are tough, birth rates fall.

Here we quantify the link between increased unemployment and the subsequent change in birth rates during the initial phase of the U.S. COVID-19 pandemic. We do so by estimating changes in births between December 2019 and 2020 relative to changes in births between December 2018 and 2019 to abstract from ongoing trends (and incorporating nine months of gestation). We reference this statistic as the adjusted change in births. Then we compare this adjusted change in births to the change in the unemployment rate in the state between April 2019 and 2020.

The average increase in a states unemployment rate was a massive 9.8 point increase. Unemployment rates in Michigan, Hawaii, and Nevada jumped over 18 points. Births fell 3.7 percent, on average, across states. Births fell the most in New York, Delaware, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts. In fact, we estimate that births to residents of New York City, the epicenter of the initial wave of the pandemic, fell by a whopping 23.4 percent in December of 2020.3

Figure 2 reports the two-way relationship between changes in the unemployment rate between April 2019-2020 and adjusted changes in births in December 2019-2020. A one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the birth rate. Strikingly, this is half the size of the relationship observed from the Great Recession. We speculate that the unprecedented government response, including the CARES Act, dampened the relationship between the unemployment rate and fertility behavior.

The COVID-19 pandemic likely affected birth rates through channels other than job and income effects. Worry and anxiety about health effects and the effects of the pandemic on life in general might have led couples to reconsider plans for conceiving a child at that time. The social restrictions and precautions that people took (or were forced to take) during the initial phase of the pandemic likely also affected relationships and pregnancies. To estimate the link between COVID-19 case rates and the subsequent number of births, we relate the adjusted state-level change in births between December 2019 and 2020 to cumulative state COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people in March 2020.

Figure 3 documents the negative relationship between the magnitude of the pandemic in the state and the birth rate. Every 10-point increase in the incidence rate is associated with a 0.35 percentage point reduction in the birth rate. Of course, people might have responded to the national rate of COVID, not just the incidence rate where they lived. The relationship captured in Figure 3 simply states that in places where more people contracted COVID, birth rates fell by more.

In a statistical horserace of COVID-19 incidence and the change in the unemployment rate using a regression model that includes both measures each factor has an independent impact on birth rates. As a statistical matter, the correlation between the increase in the April unemployment rate and the March COVID-19 case rate is low. For instance, unemployment skyrocketed in Nevada, Hawaii, and Michigan because tourism collapsed and auto plants shut down, not because there was a high local rate of COVID-19 cases.

To assess who reduced their fertility in response to the pandemic, we construct adjusted changes in birth rates similar to that described earlier, but separately for women distinguished by education, age, and whether or not they already had a child. Figure 4 reports the drop in births in December 2020 relative to December 2019 for women by education level. Births occurring in December 2020 were likely conceived in March 2020, the month the COVID-19 pandemic was declared a national emergency.

Births fell the most for highly educated women those with masters degrees, doctorates, or professional degrees when COVID began. This is perhaps surprising, given that these women were less likely than less-educated women to experience job losses.

Figure 5 tabulates the decline in births by five-year age categories. Birth rates fell the most for women age 35 and above. Again, this is perhaps surprising given that younger workers experienced larger losses in employment and correspondingly, earned income. This provides further suggestive evidence that factors other than a spike in job loss affected fertility during the pandemic-induced recession. The birth decline is larger for teens than for women in their 20s and early 30s. For teens, social restrictions and school and business shutdowns likely generated separation from peers that reduced opportunities for sexual encounters.

These differences in birth rate reductions across groups of women reveal whose behavior was most affected by pandemic circumstances. These differences do not reveal where the majority of missing births are coming from, since women in different education and age groups account for different shares of overall births. For instance, births fell much more for women 40 to 44 compared to women 30 to 34, but women in this younger age group accounted for three times as many of the missing births because they account for a larger share of total births.

Birth data also reveal that a larger fertility response occurred among women who already had a child. Figure 6 shows that there are larger drops in births for second and third or higher-order births, as compared to first births. The pandemics restrictions on social movements and the associated closures of school and daycare led to great disruptions in the lives of children and their parents. It is not surprising that parents who might otherwise have expanded their family decided to put off having another child during this time.4

The numbers we have reported above reveal that the COVID-19 baby bust to date is smaller than we predicted in our earlier forecasts. More time has to pass before we will know the total size of the COVID baby bust. Regardless of its ultimate magnitude, the COVID baby bust should be considered in the context of the sustained, substantial declinein U.S. birth rates since the Great Recession. The hundreds of thousands of fewer births occurring every year over this period, withno obvious reversalin sight, has far greater long-term implications for society than the COVID baby bust.

The Brookings Institution is financed through the support of a diverse array of foundations, corporations, governments, individuals, as well as an endowment. A list of donors can be found in our annual reports published onlinehere. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions in this report are solely those of its author(s) and are not influenced by any donation.

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Early evidence of missing births from the COVID-19 baby bust - Brookings Institution

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