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COVID-19 is still deadlier for patients than flu - The Japan Times
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Watch:replay of the Spring Meetings eventCOVID-19:Vaccines for Developing Countries
Statement:Message of His Holiness Pope Francis to the World Bank Group and International Monetary FundOfficial statement(PDF)
About the Event:
The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in developing countries is critical to protecting lives, building human capital, and stimulating economic recovery. The current crisis is exacerbating inequalities throughout the world and, without access to vaccines, the gap will widen further.
The event replay will be available with captions inEnglish,Arabic,FrenchandSpanish.
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Every region is subject to substantial growth downgrades. East Asia and the Pacific will grow by a scant 0.5%. South Asia will contract by 2.7%, Sub-Saharan Africa by 2.8%, Middle East and North Africa by 4.2%, Europe and Central Asia by 4.7%, and Latin America by 7.2%. These downturns are expected to reverse years of progress toward development goals and tip tens of millions of people back into extreme poverty.
Emerging market and developing economies will be buffeted by economic headwinds from multiple quarters: pressure on weak health care systems, loss of trade and tourism, dwindling remittances, subdued capital flows, and tight financial conditions amid mounting debt. Exporters of energy or industrial commodities will be particularly hard hit. Demand for metals and transport-related commodities such as rubber and platinum used for vehicle parts has also tumbled. While agriculture markets are well supplied globally, trade restrictions and supply chain disruptions could yet raise food security issues in some places.
A worker wears a mask in Sub-Saharan Africa. Lucian Coman/Shutterstock
Even this bleak outlook is subject to great uncertainty and significant downside risks. The forecast assumes that the pandemic recedes in such a way that domestic mitigation measures can be lifted by mid-year in advanced economies and later in developing countries, that adverse global spillovers ease during the second half of 2020, and that widespread financial crises are avoided. This scenario would envision global growth reviving, albeit modestly, to 4.2% in 2021.
However, this view may be optimistic. Businesses might find it hard to service debt, heightened risk aversion could lead to climbing borrowing costs, and bankruptcies and defaults could result in financial crises in many countries. Under this downside scenario, global growth could shrink by almost 8% in 2020.
Looking at the speed with which the crisis has overtaken the global economy may provide a clue to how deep the recession will be. The sharp pace of global growth forecast downgrades points to the possibility of yet further downward revisions and the need for additional action by policymakers in coming months to support economic activity.
Visit link:
The Global Economic Outlook During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Changed World
