Category: Covid-19

Early in March 2020, I decided to write about the risks posed by COVID-19. I have no background in epidemiology or even health journalism, but I can multiply, divide and make charts and was frustrated with the lack of quantification in most reporting and public-health messaging on what was soon to be declared a pandemic.

In the resulting column I took what seemed to be the most authoritative estimate of COVID-19s per-infection fatality rate, 1%, and noted that this was about 10 times the 0.1% fatality rate of seasonal influenza, then conservatively multiplied a CDC estimate of 61,099 influenza-associated deaths in the U.S. in the pretty bad flu season of 2017-18 by five and 10 to get a range of "300,000 to 600,000 deaths.

Over the 12 months that followed, about 550,000 Americans died of COVID-19 according to according to the CDCs provisional estimates and 490,000 according to its tallies of the "underlying cause of death listed on death certificates. Both are almost certainly undercounts, because in the early days the lack of testing meant many COVID-19-caused deaths were attributed to other maladies. My guesstimate was also more lucky than good in that actual seasonal flu fatality rates may be closer to 0.04%, and the 2017-18 influenza toll has since been revised downward to 52,000. Still, it was in the ballpark.

See more here:

How we got COVID's risk right but the response wrong - The Japan Times

Pfizers PFE Biopharma operating segment includes three sub-segments, Primary Care, Specialty Care and Oncology.

In the Primary Care segment, Pfizer expects significantly lower sales from its COVID products in the third quarter due to a decline in demand.

Among COVID products, Pfizer records direct sales and alliance revenues from its partner, BioNTech BNTX, for the COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, and product revenues from its oral antiviral pill for COVID, Paxlovid.

Our estimate for direct sales and alliance revenues from BioNTech for Comirnaty is $1.79 billion, while that for Paxlovid is $614.9 million.

Alliance revenues from Bristol-Myers BMY for Eliquis and sales of Prevnar family of vaccines are likely to have provided top-line support. The Prevnar family includes revenues from Prevnar 13/Prevenar 13 (pediatric and adult) and Prevnar 20 (adult).

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for alliance revenues from Eliquis is $1.52 billion, while our model estimate is $1.50 billion.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the sales of Prevnar family of vaccines is $1.69 billion while our model estimates Prevnar family vaccine sales to be $1.71 billion.

In the second quarter, however, sales of Prevnar and alliance revenues from Eliquis were hurt by some near-term individual product challenges. It remains to be seen if these challenges abated in the third quarter, resulting in better sales of these drugs.

Pfizers stock has declined 41.2% so far this year against an increase of 0.5% for the industry.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

In the Specialty Care unit, rare disease drug, Vyndaqel/Vyndamax, is expected to have been a key contributor to the top line. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Vyndaqel/Vyndamax is $808.9 million while our model estimates the same to be $815 million.

Sales of Enbrel in key European markets and Japan are likely to have been hurt by biosimilar competition.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Xeljanz and Enbrel is pegged at $423.0 million and $205.0 million, respectively, while our estimate is $454.3 million and $189.2 million, respectively.

Story continues

Newly acquired products, including Nurtec ODT/Vydura for migraine and Oxbryta for sickle cell disease, are expected to have contributed to the top line in the quarter. Nurtec ODT/Vydura was added to Pfizers portfolio with the acquisition of Biohaven in 2022. Oxbryta was added with the October 2022 acquisition of Global Blood Therapeutics.

In the Oncology unit, sales of the key medicine, Ibrance are likely to have been hurt due to competitive pressure, which is hurting demand trends globally. The Zacks Consensus Estimate as well as our estimate for Ibrance is $1.26 billion.

Overall, Pfizer expects better non-COVID operational revenue growth in the third and fourth quarters to be driven by its key products, new launches as well as newly acquired products like Nurtec and Oxbryta.

Some key new product approvals/launches are Cibinqo for atopic dermatitis, Abrysvo RSV vaccine, Zavzpret nasal spray for migraine, Litfulo (ritlecitinib) for severe alopecia areata, Elrexfio (elranatamab) for relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma and Ngenla for pediatric growth hormone deficiency in the same month.

Investors will be keen to know the initial sales numbers of these new products in the third quarter and how they have contributed to the top-line.

Pfizer has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Pfizer Inc. price-eps-surprise | Pfizer Inc. Quote

A better-ranked large drug/biotech company worth considering is Gilead Sciences GILD, which has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of todays Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

In the past 60 days, the consensus estimate for Gilead Sciences 2023 earnings has risen from $6.63 per share to $6.64 per share, while the same for 2024 has increased from $7.34 per share to $7.39 per share. Year to date, shares of Gilead Sciences have declined 10.8%.

GILDs earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark in the other two, delivering an average earnings surprise of 2.77%.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

Bristol Myers Squibb Company (BMY) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) : Free Stock Analysis Report

BioNTech SE Sponsored ADR (BNTX) : Free Stock Analysis Report

To read this article on Zacks.com click here.

Zacks Investment Research

Visit link:

Pfizer's (PFE) Key Drugs to Drive Q3 Earnings Amid COVID Decline? - Yahoo Finance

Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson walks outside his home, in London, Britain, March 22, 2023. REUTERS/Peter Nicholls/File photo Acquire Licensing Rights

LONDON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's approach to dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic was "mad and dangerous" and his constant indecision made it "impossible" to tackle the virus, the government's top civil servant told officials.

The exchanges between Simon Case, the government's most senior official, and officials in which he also described Britain's response in 2020 as a "terrible, tragic joke", were shown on Monday to the inquiry into how the government handled the worst health crisis in almost a century.

In the autumn of 2020 when the government was discussing how to suppress the virus, Case said of Johnson: "He cannot lead and we cannot support him under these circumstances. The team captain cannot change the call on the big plays every day." He then wrote in capital letters: "IT HAS TO STOP".

Months earlier when the government was reopening after the first lockdown, Case said Johnson wanted to let the virus "rip" and compared Johnson's approach to the way U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who were known for dismissing the threat of COVID, were handling the crisis.

"This is in danger of becoming Trump/Bolsonaro level mad and dangerous," Case told other colleagues.

A spokesman for Johnson, who will appear as a witness in the inquiry in the future, declined to comment.

The messages were released at the start of the week where a number of Johnson's senior officials are giving testimony that will reveal how his government worked during the pandemic.

Martin Reynolds, Johnson's former principal private secretary who appeared before the inquiry on Monday, said there was a culture of dysfunctionality and misogyny at the heart of government during the crisis.

Reynolds revealed that he and another colleague wrote a report in May 2020 recommending reform of the way Johnson's team was operating to address the governments "suboptimal" handling of the first phase of COVID.

Asked whether the report showed "dysfunctionality, lack of discipline, chaos and a significant degree of misogyny", Reynolds said he agreed.

Reynolds said there was "superhero culture" among some officials.

"In terms of the diversity of decision-making, in terms of the treatment of women, I agree. I think that remains an ongoing cultural issue, which I think we could have done more to address," Reynolds said.

Reporting by Andrew MacAskill, Additional reporting by Elizabeth Piper, editing by Ed Osmond

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

View original post here:

Boris Johnson's response to COVID was 'mad and dangerous'- top official - Reuters UK

The public inquiry into the UKs response to the Covid-19 pandemic got under way earlier this year. So far it has heard from politicians such as David Cameron and George Osborne, who oversaw pandemic preparations and laid the conditions for the health service going into the crisis. It has heard from some of the scientists who advised the government and from the health secretary in office when the pandemic broke, Matt Hancock.

But as the Guardians deputy political editor, Peter Walker, tells Michael Safi, some of the most explosive moments have come not from witnesses themselves but from the mountain of material much of it in the form of WhatsApp conversations that they have handed over. In it, we can see the dark humour, petty squabbling and outright chaos that was the daily reality of the government response.

This week, the hearings will resume after a short break with some of the most powerful former advisers in Downing Street called in to give evidence. Today, the former communications director Lee Cain will face questions; tomorrow it is the turn of the former chief strategist Dominic Cummings.

Support The Guardian

The Guardian is editorially independent. And we want to keep our journalism open and accessible to all. But we increasingly need our readers to fund our work.

Go here to read the rest:

What we've learned so far from the Covid inquiry podcast - The Guardian

Boris Johnson asked why are we destroying the economy for people who will die anyway soon in a March 2020 meeting with Rishi Sunak, the Covid inquiry was told today.

The claim, branded horrific by bereaved families, emerged from notebooks kept by Imran Shafi, Johnsons private secretary for public service.

Shafi was quizzed this afternoon by Hugo Keith KC. His notes from the same Cx [chancellor] bilat meeting record someone, also believed to be Johnson, as having said: We are killing the patient to tackle the tumour.

The inquiry, chaired by Heather Hallett and now into its second module, heard that Johnson had earlier said the biggest damage [from Covid will be] done by overreaction during a meeting on 28 February 2020 where lockdown restrictions were discussed.

The Covid-19 public inquiry is a historic chance to find out what really happened.

Shafi said under questioning that Johnson definitely did not want a lockdown in March 2020, despite being aware that the worst case scenario of hundreds of thousands of deaths was becoming increasingly likely. But he agreed by 2 March 2020 that control had been lost and that nothing short of a lockdown would suffice.

It would be another three weeks before a UK-wide lockdown would be announced.

Link:

Boris Johnson said why destroy economy for people who will die anyway, Covid inquiry hears - openDemocracy

Given asthmatic childrens susceptibility to respiratory illnesses like the flu, it was assumed theyd be more prone to severe COVID-19 infection. But a new Australian study suggests that, compared to children who dont have asthma, those with the condition are not at greater risk of serious COVID infection.

Many chronic conditions cancer, diabetes, obesity, high blood pressure and heart disease, for example are considered risk factors for COVID-19 infection and can complicate recovery.

Because respiratory infections such as influenza commonly exacerbate asthma symptoms, it was anticipated that asthmatic children, especially, would be predisposed to severe COVID-19. But a recently published large study by researchers at the University of New South Wales (UNSW) Sydney suggests this may not be the case.

Children with asthma are generally more susceptible to respiratory illnesses like influenza, so it was initially thought they may be vulnerable to severe infection from the COVID virus, said Nusrat Homaira, corresponding author of the study.

But our study, based on a substantial sample of children across multiple waves of the pandemic, indicates children with asthma were not at higher risk of severe COVID than children without asthma, added Mei Chan, the studys lead author.

The researchers analyzed de-identified data from the medical records of 18,932 children under 17 with a positive PCR test who sought care from The Sydney Childrens Hospitals Network between January 2020 and May 2022. Of those, 1,025 (5.4%) had a prior diagnosis of asthma.

They compared children with previously diagnosed asthma to those without asthma based on their risk of developing COVID-19 and disease severity, measured by length of hospital stay, admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), whether mechanical ventilation was required and mortality.

Of 72 children with COVID-19 who needed intensive care, those with asthma were not at great risk of being admitted to ICU during any of the pandemic waves, that is, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron. Mechanical ventilation was reported in 19 children with COVID-19, only two of which had asthma. Eleven children died during the study only one was certified as dying from COVID-19 and none of the deaths were in children with asthma.

We looked at different markers of disease severity, and although the group of children with asthma generally required a longer duration of hospitalization, they were not at greater risk of COVID severity in terms of ICU admissions, mechanical ventilation use, or mortality compared to those without asthma at any stage of the outbreak, said Homaira.

The researchers did find that the length of hospital stay for asthmatic children increased by 1.17 days when Omicron was the dominant strain.

Children with COVID were less likely to be asthmatic during the early stages of the pandemic, Homaira said. With the emergence of the Omicron variant, we observed an increase in the risk of COVID infection among children with asthma compared to those without.

The researchers say its important to remain vigilant, particularly when new strains emerge.

We need to keep monitoring the emerging variants of COVID-19 and encouraging children, especially those with underlying chronic conditions, to keep up to date with their vaccinations as we know they can help reduce the risk of severe respiratory infections, Homaira said.

The study was published in The Journal of Asthma and Allergy.

Source: UNSW Sydney

More:

Asthmatic kids are not at greater risk of severe COVID, study suggests - New Atlas

Just in time for respiratory virus season, theres a new COVID-19 variant dominating cases in the United States and yet another version of the coronavirus thats already starting to spread overseas.

Virus evolution is what were seeing in real time, said Kelly Oakeson, chief scientist for next generation sequencing and bioinformatics for the Utah Department of Health and Human Services.

The variant thats now the most prevalent in the United States, labeled HV.1 by scientists, is just getting better at getting into our cells. Its better at making us sick. Its better at doing what viruses do, Oakeson said.

The variant hasnt yet reached dominant status in Utah but should soon, he said, since the state tends to lag about two weeks behind the national variant proportions estimated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Heres what Oakeson said Utahns should known about HV.1:

COVID-19 could kill them ... (or) they could get it, have a runny nose, and be fine. Theres a huge dynamic range there of symptoms and severity.

Youre probably going to see an increase in cases for sure. Is that driven by HV.1? Is that driven solely by the seasonality, what time of year it is? No, its probably a combination of all of those things. ... Weve seen this now, year after year.

Less is known about an even newer variant, JN.1, thats so far shown up mostly in Iceland. Its a mutation of the BA.2.86 variant, also called Pirola, thats derived from the omicron variant that sent COVID-19 cases soaring to record levels in early 2022.

Oakeson said there have been some 178 cases of JN.1 reported worldwide, including 118 in the past 10 days. Besides Iceland, which accounted for about half of the cases as of Oct. 23, countries where JN.1 has been seen include the U.K., France and Portugal, he said.

The new version of Pirola was detected in the United States in September, but makes up less than 0.1% of the nations COVID-19 viruses, according to the University of Minnesotas Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy.

Oakeson, who initially called Pirola alarming because its high number of mutations was similar to what was seen with omicron, is taking a wait-and-see approach with JN.1

Were definitely watching it. Im not sure Im at the same level of concern I was with BA.2.86 just because this one is a descendent of those and we didnt see that take off in the U.S. like it did in other parts of the world, the chief scientist said.

The latest estimate from the CDC for the two weeks that ended last Saturday show HV.1 is now the most prevalent variant in the United States, seen as accounting for just over a quarter of all COVID-19 cases.

Eris, however, is still close behind at nearly 22%, according to the CDC estimates. Both HV.1 and Eris are descendants of XBB.1.5, another omicron-related variant also known as Kraken, thats targeted by the new, updated COVID-19 vaccine.

Although it was approved in mid-September, fewer than 5% of Utahns have gotten whats intended to be an annual dose of COVID-19 vaccine for most Americans, similar to a flu shot.

See more here:

What you need to know about HV.1, the new COVID-19 variant dominating cases in the U.S. - Deseret News

Specialty

Please choose I'm not a medical professional. Allergy and Immunology Anatomy Anesthesiology Cardiac/Thoracic/Vascular Surgery Cardiology Critical Care Dentistry Dermatology Diabetes and Endocrinology Emergency Medicine Epidemiology and Public Health Family Medicine Forensic Medicine Gastroenterology General Practice Genetics Geriatrics Health Policy Hematology HIV/AIDS Hospital-based Medicine I'm not a medical professional. Infectious Disease Integrative/Complementary Medicine Internal Medicine Internal Medicine-Pediatrics Medical Education and Simulation Medical Physics Medical Student Nephrology Neurological Surgery Neurology Nuclear Medicine Nutrition Obstetrics and Gynecology Occupational Health Oncology Ophthalmology Optometry Oral Medicine Orthopaedics Osteopathic Medicine Otolaryngology Pain Management Palliative Care Pathology Pediatrics Pediatric Surgery Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Plastic Surgery Podiatry Preventive Medicine Psychiatry Psychology Pulmonology Radiation Oncology Radiology Rheumatology Substance Use and Addiction Surgery Therapeutics Trauma Urology Miscellaneous

Read more:

New-Onset Graves' Disease With Thyroid Storm After COVID-19 Infection - Cureus

When the COVID-19 pandemic took off in 2020, so too did questions over the effectiveness of wearing a face mask to prevent the spread of the virus. Now, three and a half years later, what does the science say?

In an interview for 60 Minutes, CBS News chief medical correspondent Dr. Jon LaPook posed that question to Linsey Marr, a Virginia Tech University professor specializing in aerosol science.

"They are very helpful in reducing the chances that the person will get COVID because it's reducing the amount of virus that you would inhale from the air around you," Marr said about masks.

No mask is 100% effective. An N95, for example, is named as such because it is at least 95% efficient at blocking airborne particles when used properly. But even if a mask has an 80% efficiency, Marr said, it still offers meaningful protection.

"That greatly reduces the chance that I'm going to become infected," Marr said.

click to expand

Marr said research shows that high-quality masks can block particles that are the same size as those carrying the coronavirus. Masks work, Marr explained, as a filter, not as a sieve. Virus particles must weave around the layers of fibers, and as they do so, they may crash into those fibers and become trapped.

Marr likened it to running through a forest of trees. Walk slowly, and the surrounding is easy to navigate. But being forced through a forest at a high speed increases the likelihood of running into a tree.

"Masks, even cloth masks, do something," she said.

Early in the pandemic, some guidance from health professionals suggested that wearing a mask might actually lead to infection: A person might encounter a contaminated mask and then touch their eyes, nose, or mouth. But research in the ensuing years has shown that fear to be misplaced.

"There wasn't any evidence really that that happens," Marr said.

Marr said her team aerosolized the coronavirus, pulled it through a mask, and then examined how much virus survived on the mask. The study reported some viral particle remained on some cloth masks, but no virus survived on the N95s or surgical masks.

Marr's team also touched artificial skin to masks and looked at how many virus particles transferred to the artificial skin. No infectious virus transferred.

"I hope the study kind of shows that it's something we don't need to worry about as much as we were told," Marr said.

The videos above were edited by Sarah Shafer Prediger.

View original post here:

Face mask effectiveness: What science knows now - CBS News

Boris Johnson did not receive any updates about the escalating Covid crisis during a school half-term break just weeks before he announced the first lockdown.

The Covid inquiry today heard that over ten days between 14 February and 24 February 2020, the prime minister received no information from his staff, including from the two COBRA meetings that took place.

Johnson spent the break during which parliament was in recess at Chevening House, a grace-and-favour Kent mansion. He was labelled a part-time prime minister by then-Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and accused of sulking in a mansion while coronavirus unfolded and large parts of the UK were devastated by flooding. Johnson insisted the government had been working flat out.

When asked today why he did not update the PM with any information on Covid, Johnsons former parliamentary private secretary (PPS) Martin Reynolds said he could not recall.

The Covid-19 public inquiry is a historic chance to find out what really happened.

Hugo Keith, chief counsel to the inquiry, told him: There were no emails. There were no notes put in his red box. You don't appear to have been in touch with him about coronavirus, or anybody else.

To what extent did you think to yourself weve gotemails about a viral pandemic coming our way? Why was nothing done in terms of keeping the prime minister in the loop in those ten days? he asked.

Reynolds responded: I cannot recall why and whether there was any urgent business to transact over that period with the PM.

When asked whether it was because it was half-term, Reynolds said he was happy to accept it was half-term.

The day before the PMs ten-day information blackout, a cabinet reshuffle had taken place that saw the resignation of chancellor Sajid Javid, who was replaced by Rishi Sunak.

By 27 February, the governments Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies had discussed the reasonable worst case scenario in which 80% of the UK population became infected, with a 1% fatality rate which would mean up to 500,000 deaths.

The PMs top aide added he probably should have done more to keep the prime minister updated on the biggest crisis since the Second World War.

Reynolds agreed that little had been done between the middle of February and early March.

He also agreed that the ten-day gap in pandemic planning was an untoward delay which contributed to the virus being out of control by 13 March.

The inquiry continues. openDemocracy is fundraising to pay reporters to cover every day of the public hearings. Please support us by donating here.

Follow this link:

Covid inquiry: Boris Johnson had no updates on Covid during half-term - openDemocracy