Category: Corona Virus

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Coronavirus: what happens to people’s lungs when they get Covid-19? – The Guardian

March 21, 2020

What became known as Covid-19, or the coronavirus, started in late 2019 as a cluster of pneumonia cases with an unknown cause. The cause of the pneumonia was found to be a new virus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, or Sars-CoV-2. The illness caused by the virus is Covid-19.

Now declared as a pandemic by the World Health Organisation (WHO), the majority of people who contract Covid-19 suffer only mild, cold-like symptoms.

WHO says about 80% of people with Covid-19 recover without needing any specialist treatment. Only about one person in six becomes seriously ill and develops difficulty breathing.

So how can Covid-19 develop into a more serious illness featuring pneumonia, and what does that do to our lungs and the rest of our body?

Guardian Australia spoke with Prof John Wilson, president-elect of the Royal Australasian College of Physicians and a respiratory physician.

He says almost all serious consequences of Covid-19 feature pneumonia.

Wilson says people who catch Covid-19 can be placed into four broad categories.

The least serious are those people who are sub-clinical and who have the virus but have no symptoms.

Next are those who get an infection in the upper respiratory tract, which, Wilson says, means a person has a fever and a cough and maybe milder symptoms like headache or conjunctivitis.

He says: Those people with minor symptoms are still able to transmit the virus but may not be aware of it.

The largest group of those who would be positive for Covid-19, and the people most likely to present to hospitals and surgeries, are those who develop the same flu-like symptoms that would usually keep them off work.

A fourth group, Wilson says, will develop severe illness that features pneumonia.

He says: In Wuhan, it worked out that from those who had tested positive and had sought medical help, roughly 6% had a severe illness.

The WHO says the elderly and people with underlying problems like high blood pressure, heart and lung problems or diabetes, are more likely to develop serious illness.

When people with Covid-19 develop a cough and fever, Wilson says this is a result of the infection reaching the respiratory tree the air passages that conduct air between the lungs and the outside.

He says: The lining of the respiratory tree becomes injured, causing inflammation. This in turn irritates the nerves in the lining of the airway. Just a speck of dust can stimulate a cough.

But if this gets worse, it goes past just the lining of the airway and goes to the gas exchange units, which are at the end of the air passages.

If they become infected they respond by pouring out inflammatory material into the air sacs that are at the bottom of our lungs.

If the air sacs then become inflamed, Wilson says this causes an outpouring of inflammatory material [fluid and inflammatory cells] into the lungs and we end up with pneumonia.

He says lungs that become filled with inflammatory material are unable to get enough oxygen to the bloodstream, reducing the bodys ability to take on oxygen and get rid of carbon dioxide.

Thats the usual cause of death with severe pneumonia, he says.

Prof Christine Jenkins, chair of Lung Foundation Australia and a leading respiratory physician, told Guardian Australia: Unfortunately, so far we dont have anything that can stop people getting Covid-19 pneumonia.

People are already trialling all sorts of medications and were hopeful that we might discover that there are various combinations of viral and anti-viral medications that could be effective. At the moment there isnt any established treatment apart from supportive treatment, which is what we give people in intensive care.

We ventilate them and maintain high oxygen levels until their lungs are able to function in a normal way again as they recover.

Wilson says patients with viral pneumonia are also at risk of developing secondary infections, so they would also be treated with anti-viral medication and antibiotics.

In some situations that isnt enough, he says of the current outbreak. The pneumonia went unabated and the patients did not survive.

Jenkins says Covid-19 pneumonia is different from the most common cases that people are admitted to hospitals for.

Most types of pneumonia that we know of and that we admit people to hospital for are bacterial and they respond to an antibiotic.

Wilson says there is evidence that pneumonia caused by Covid-19 may be particularly severe. Wilson says cases of coronavirus pneumonia tend to affect all of the lungs, instead of just small parts.

He says: Once we have an infection in the lung and, if it involves the air sacs, then the bodys response is first to try and destroy [the virus] and limit its replication.

But Wilson says this first responder mechanism can be impaired in some groups, including people with underlying heart and lung conditions, diabetes and the elderly.

Jenkins says that, generally, people aged 65 and over are at risk of getting pneumonia, as well as people with medical conditions such as diabetes, cancer or a chronic disease affecting the lungs, heart, kidney or liver, smokers, Indigenous Australians, and infants aged 12 months and under.

Age is the major predictor of risk of death from pneumonia. Pneumonia is always serious for an older person and in fact it used to be one of the main causes of death in the elderly. Now we have very good treatments for pneumonia.

Its important to remember that no matter how healthy and active you are, your risk for getting pneumonia increases with age. This is because our immune system naturally weakens with age, making it harder for our bodies to fight off infections and diseases.

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Coronavirus: what happens to people's lungs when they get Covid-19? - The Guardian

Heres How Many People Have the Coronavirus in Your State – The Atlantic

March 21, 2020

Read: The strongest evidence yet that American is botching coronavirus testing

This surge in testing capacity was slow in coming. In the 10 days after February 26when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed that the coronavirus was being transmitted through community spread in the United Statesfederal and state labs tested 2,806 Americans. Another week elapsed before the country had tested 20,000 people. In the few days since, the country has expanded its testing capacity to cover at least that many people every day.

Yet the national numbers are still distorted by massive testing operations in just a few states. New York, California, and Washington have conducted nearly half of all tests nationwide, even though those states contain, combined, about a fifth of the countrys population. Florida and Texaseach home to more than 20 million peoplehave tested only about 3,000 patients each.

Some state public-health departments arent reporting as much information as others. Weve assigned every state a letter grade in the chart above to help readers understand how thorough each one is in its reporting. This grade is not assessing the quality of a states testing, but rather the transparency and regularity of its reporting.

All 50 states and Washington, D.C., regularly report their number of positive cases. Some states, such as Connecticut, disclose little additional information, so weve assigned them a grade of D. But others, such as Florida, publish not only their positive cases but also their negative cases and the results of tests conducted by private labs. Those states get an A grade. Having this full suite of figures at the state level allows for a far greater understanding of the size of both the outbreak and the response.

Read: The 4 key reasons the U.S. is so behind on coronavirus testing

In the chart above, each states number of positive cases includes people who are currently ill with the disease, people who have recovered from it, and people who have died. We have also broken out the number of deaths in its own column.

Some states have used strict criteria to determine who can and cannot be tested for the coronavirus. While we havent factored these into a states grade, we think these ruleswhile perhaps necessary, given the shortage of tests available from the CDChave led states to substantially undercount how many people had been infected in their communities, especially during the last week of February and the first two weeks of March. At least 18 states have enforced particularly stringent rules in some counties or hospitals: California, Hawaii, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. (Some of those states, such as Hawaii and Maryland, have since loosened their criteria.)

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Heres How Many People Have the Coronavirus in Your State - The Atlantic

What is coronavirus and what is the mortality rate? – The Guardian

March 21, 2020

What do we know about the virus now?

The Covid-19 virus is a member of the coronavirus family that made the jump from animals to humans late last year. Many of those initially infected either worked or frequently shopped in the Huanan seafood wholesale market in the centre of the Chinese city of Wuhan. Unusually for a virus that has made the jump from one species to another, it appears to transmit effectively in humans current estimates show that without strong containment measures the average person who catches Covid-19 will pass it on to two others. The virus also appears to have a higher mortality rate than common illnesses such as seasonal flu. The combination of coronaviruss ability to spread and cause serious illness has prompted many countries, including the UK, to introduce or plan extensive public health measures aimed at containing and limiting the impact of the epidemic.

Wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds and do this often, including when you get home or into work. Use hand sanitiser gel if soap and water are not available. Avoid touching your face. Cough or sneeze into a tissue or the crook of your elbow (not your hand) and put used tissues straight in the bin. Avoid close contact with people who are showing possible symptoms. Follow NHS guidance on self-isolation and travel.

The coronavirus outbreak hit amid flu season in the northern hemisphere and even doctors can struggle to distinguish between the two the overlap in symptoms probably contributed to slow detection of community infections in some countries, including Italy.

Typical flu symptoms, which normally come on quickly, include a high fever, sore throat, muscle aches, headaches, shivers, runny or stuffy nose, fatigue and, more occasionally, vomiting and diarrhoea. Doctors are still working to understand the full scope of symptoms and severity for Covid-19, but early studies of patients taken to hospital found nearly all of them developed a fever and dry cough, and many had fatigue and muscle aches. Pneumonia (lung infection) is common in coronavirus patients, even outside the most severe cases, and this can lead to breathing difficulties. A runny nose and sore throat are far less common, reported by just 5% of patients. The only real confirmation of having Covid-19 is taking a test though.

In the UK, the medical advice is now that the household of anyone who develops a new persistent cough or high temperature should all stay at home for 14 days, keeping away from other people. This applies to everyone, regardless of whether they have travelled abroad.

You should look on the dedicated coronavirus NHS 111 website for information. If you get worse or your symptoms last longer than seven days, you should call NHS 111. People will no longer be tested for the virus unless they are in hospital.

A large study in China found that about 80% of confirmed cases had fairly mild symptoms (defined as no significant infection in the lungs). About 15% had severe symptoms that caused significant shortness of breath, low blood oxygen or other lung problems, and fewer than 5% of cases were critical, featuring respiratory failure, septic shock or multiple organ problems. However, it is possible that a larger number of very mild cases are going under the radar, and so this breakdown in severity could change over time as wider screening takes place. Older people and those with respiratory problems, heart disease or diabetes are at greater risk.

It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower. The World Health Organizations director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, talked of 3.4%, but his figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. We know there are many more mild cases that do not get to hospital and are not being counted, which would bring the mortality rate significantly down.

Deaths are highest in the elderly, with very low rates among younger people, although medical staff who treat patients and get exposed to a lot of virus are thought to be more at risk. But even among the over-80s, 90% will recover.

Most infections happen in families, where people live at close quarters. You need to be within one to two metres of somebody to be infected by viral-loaded water droplets from their coughs or when they are speaking. That is less likely on public transport. However, it would be possible to pick up the virus on your hands from a surface that somebody with the infection had touched. The virus can linger for 48 hours or even possibly 72 hours on a hard surface, such as the hand rail in the tube though less time on a soft surface. That is why the advice is to wash your hands regularly and avoid touching your face, to prevent the virus getting into your nose, mouth or eyes.

Not at the moment, but drugs that are known to work against some viruses are being trialled in China, where there are thousands of patients, and new trials are starting in the US and other countries. Large numbers are needed to find out whether they work in a few people or a lot of people or nobody at all. The most hopeful are Kaletra, which is a combination of two anti-HIV drugs, and remdesivir, which was tried but failed in Ebola patients in west Africa in 2013 and 2016. Some Chinese doctors are also trying chloroquine, an antimalarial drug, which is off-patent, therefore cheap and highly available, and would be very useful in low-income countries. The first results are expected in mid-March and should indicate if the drugs will at least help those who are most severely ill. A miracle cure is not expected.

Efforts to develop an effective vaccine for Covid-19 have been quick compared with historical epidemics, such as Ebola. A number of teams are already testing vaccine candidates in animals and preparing to carry out small trials in people. The US company, Moderna Therapeutics, is already recruiting and hopes to enrol 45 volunteers between 18 and 55 and will launch their trial imminently. Phase one trials like this look at whether the vaccine triggers an immune response and whether the given dose causes adverse effects and could be completed quite quickly. However, the subsequent phases, which will involve thousands of volunteers and will look more closely at efficacy, will take longer and obtaining a commercially available vaccine within a year would be extremely quick. The governments chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, said he did not think a working vaccine to protect people from the coronavirus would be produced in time for the current outbreak, but that a timeframe of a year or 18 months was not unreasonable to assume.

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What is coronavirus and what is the mortality rate? - The Guardian

Coronavirus can live on surfaces for days. But it can’t travel through the mail, experts say – USA TODAY

March 21, 2020

Amazon plans to hire 100,000 workers to assist with online deliveries in the U.S. and raise their minimum pay to at least $17 an hour through April. USA TODAY

With storesstripped bare of household essentials, retailers cutting back hoursand experts calling for social distancing amid the spread of coronavirus, many people may rely on delivery services to get what they need.

A study published in theNew England Journal of Medicine on Tuesdayfoundthat coronavirus could be detected up to three hours after aerosolizationin the air, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel.

This had led some to wonder whether thosepackages on their front porch could spread coronavirus. The answer seems to beno. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that the virus isspread through respiratory droplets and there is currently no evidence to support the transmission of COVID-19 with imported goods.

"In general, because of poor survivability of these coronaviruses on surfaces, there is likely very low risk of spread from products or packaging that are shipped over a period of days or weeks at ambient temperatures," the CDC said on its website.

The World Health Organization offered similar guidance saying it is safe to receive packages from any area.

"The likelihood of an infected person contaminating commercial goods is low and the risk of catching the virus that causes COVID-19 from a package that has been moved, travelled, and exposed to different conditions and temperature is also low," the WHO said in a Q&A about the virus.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, saidduring a CNN coronavirus town hallthat if the disease were to transfer onto something like mail, it would likely be alow concentration.

Here's what you need to know about sending mail during the coronavirus pandemic:

Coronavirus myths, debunked: A cattle vaccine, bioweapons and a $3,000 test

Joseph Vinetz, a professor ofmedicine at Yale and infectious disease researcher, said that wiping down mail may help with some people's anxiety, but there's no evidence that doing so would be useful to protect against coronavirus.

"Thats just not a viable way of thinking about this epidemic nor am I taking any special precautions myself personally or for family or my friends based on packages," he said. "Whether its a package that comes in the mail delivered by Amazon or a letter from the USPS it's no different than going to the grocery store or going to get take out food."

AmeshAdalja,a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, agreed that the risk is theoretical and minimal.

"I will never disinfect my mail," he said. "And I dont even know how you would disinfect your mail."

Trying to order groceries online?: Here are some tips to do it successfully amid coronavirus

Adalja said there's minimal risk of the virus living on a package for several days, but if someone were to sneeze or cough on a letter before putting it into your mailbox "that's a different story."

Still, he said the same best practices that work during flu season like washing your hands and not touching your face after you open your mail would solve this problem.

How are postal services dealing with coronavirus?

A spokesperson for USPS, which employs more than 630,000 people, said 13 of its employees have tested positive for COVID-19. The company is closely monitoring the situation and is following strategies recommended by the CDC, according to the statement.

FedEx has advised employees who are have flulike symptoms to stay home, and is temporarily suspending signature requirements and regularly disinfecting the equipment used to make deliveries.

Amazon said it is offering flexibility for employees who need to stay home and paid time off for those who are diagnosed with coronavirus.Prime Now, Amazon Fresh, and Whole Foods Market delivery customers also have the option of "unattended delivery" if they want to limit into contact with others.

UPS said in a statement Monday that it istemporarily modifying the procedures its drivers use for residential and business deliveries. In order to minimize contact with recipients,UPS drivers will validate and record the name of the recipient of the package instead ofobtaining a signature. If an adult signature is requested by a shipper, recipients must present identification with proof of age to the driver.

Online shopping?: Amazon prioritizing shipments for medical supplies, household staples during coronavirus crisis

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Coronavirus can live on surfaces for days. But it can't travel through the mail, experts say - USA TODAY

Coronavirus Response Update From White House, Pence Will Be Tested – NPR

March 21, 2020

Vice President Mike Pence on Saturday said he and his wife will be tested for the COVID-19 coronavirus task force. Patrick Semansky/AP hide caption

Vice President Mike Pence on Saturday said he and his wife will be tested for the COVID-19 coronavirus task force.

Updated at 3:40 p.m. ET

Vice President Pence on Saturday announced he and his wife will be tested for the COVID-19 coronavirus, following confirmation that an aide on his staff was diagnosed with the respiratory disease last week.

Pence made the remarks at a news conference following the coronavirus task force meeting at the White House. Earlier in the week the vice president,who leads the task force, told reporters that he has not been tested for the virus because the White House doctor had told him he didn't need to be.

"I'm pleased to report that he is doing well," Pence said of his aide, adding that "he had mild cold-like symptoms for a day and half."

Pence explained that all contact-tracing has been completed and neither he nor the president had direct contact with the aide. Regardless, he said, he would undergo testing later in the day.

He also offered the latest figures on the number of Americans who have been tested: More than 195,000 people have been tested, not including those who were tested in county hospitals or health care labs around the nation. Of those, roughly 19,350 have tested positive for the coronavirus, Pence said.

President Trump, who was first to speak at the news conference at the White House, ran through the list of steps the administration has taken to fight the spread of the virus, including an order for "hundreds of millions" of face masks and other supplies for health care professionals.

"We started with very few masks and now we're making tens of millions of masks," Trump said after blaming previous administrations for the stockpile shortages the country now faces.

He later specified the government has issued a contract for 500 million N95 masks, saying they are "now" available to hospitals and other health care centers.

Part of the demand for supplies is being met by the private sector in "sixth gear," he said, which is heeding the call to make masks, swabs and ventilators by pivoting from their primary industries to making the desperately needed supplies.

Trump praised Hanes, the cotton clothing maker, for retrofitting its manufacturing capabilities to produce masks for medical use. He also noted the shift by alcohol distilleries in Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia toward making hand sanitizer products that will be distributed throughout all 50 states.

He touted his work on legislation to bring economic relief to businesses and workers. He said his administration will give people extra time to file taxes, moving the deadline from April 15 to July 15. Additionally, he said students will not face interest penalties or fines for delaying student loan payments. Homeowners will also get help: Foreclosures and evictions on HUD loans are suspended for the next 60 days.

Trump talked about reaching agreements with Canada and Mexico to halt the entry of what he called the "Chinese virus," a term some have criticized as stigmatizing.

Adm. Brett Giroir, head of the U.S. Public Health Service, is leading the effort to expand testing. He said the agency is distributing equipment from the Strategic National Stockpile to "many states" on a daily basis.

But there's no clear answer to when states would have enough masks or other equipment.

Giroir said the outcry for more tests is not necessarily an issue of supply he said there are tens of thousands of tests out there but of making sure the right facilities are getting the right kind of tests and training.

This week, governors across the country warned that they were seeing shortages of supplies needed for testing, including testing reagents, used to create a chemical reaction to detect the virus, and swabs. On Friday, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said there had been "tremendous progress" in lab testing and dismissed complaints about shortages as "anecdotal."

But groups that represent public health labs, epidemiologists and state health officials said late Friday that there were "widespread shortages of laboratory supplies and reagents."

The Association of Public Health Laboratories said testing should be reserved for health care workers and first responders, older Americans with symptoms and other people at high risk of getting seriously ill from the virus.

The groups said mass testing would quickly deplete supplies, and it instead urged people with mild respiratory illness to stay at home and isolate themselves.

Hospitals have also said health care workers lack masks and other gear needed to protect themselves when treating patients with the virus. Pence said on Friday that there would be an announcement this weekend about what he called "a major acquisition" of masks.

A week ago, Trump and Pence had said there would be a website where people could find out whether they needed to be tested for the virus and direct them to nearby drive-though sites. While a division of Google's parent company has developed a pilot project in San Francisco, no website for national use has materialized.

After the president thanked Google for developing the website last week, the tech company put out a statement saying the life sciences division, Verily, was only in the "early stages" of such a rollout.

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Coronavirus Response Update From White House, Pence Will Be Tested - NPR

The Coronaviruss Rampage Through a Suburban Nursing Home – The New York Times

March 21, 2020

KIRKLAND, Wash. Loretta Rapp, 79, was easy to spot as she zipped through the Life Care Center nursing home in her electric wheelchair, dressed in one of her bright muumuus.

It had been hard for her to leave her apartment after she took a bad fall last year. But she was a no-nonsense woman who had raised three children, and she was trying to make the best of things. She went to physical therapy. She devoured detective novels. At the skilled-nursing facility tucked next to a row of Douglas firs in suburban Seattle, she was elected president of the residents council.

Life Care made an effort to keep things fun. There were shopping excursions to the Fred Meyer and lunch trips to Olive Garden, a recent afternoon with cute and cuddly animals. The Honky Tonk Sweethearts, a country group, came in for a show early in February. Ms. Rapp spent her days buzzing the hallways, visiting newcomers and cheering up bed-bound friends.

Then people started getting sick.

Not sick like what happens all the time in a nursing home, the bad flus and septic infections and old bones that will not heal. This was different. In the last few days of February, peoples temperatures started going off the charts. Some could not breathe. Then came word that the coronavirus, the one in China that was all over the news, was right there in Kirkland, population 89,000.

Two Life Care residents died on Feb. 26, though it would be days before tests confirmed they had the coronavirus. And 911 records showed that more people were failing. A 60-year-old man was not responding to liter after liter of oxygen. One patient was fading in and out of consciousness. Another was turning blue.

The staff put the facility on lockdown. The halls emptied. Bedroom doors were closed.

In Room 32W, Ms. Rapp lay straining to breathe as her fever spiked to 103 degrees.

At 1:52 p.m. on Feb. 29, a nurse called 911 to report Ms. Rapps failing health. Shes running a temp, he told the dispatcher. We think she, um

He stopped himself.

This is the place that has the coronavirus.

As confirmed cases of Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, now surge across the country and overturn every facet of normal life, the troubled nursing home in Kirkland looks like a frightening preview of what could lie ahead.

Since the first positive tests at Life Care came back on Feb. 28, 129 people there including 81 residents, about two-thirds of its population have tested positive for the virus, and 35 people have died. Dozens of its workers have received coronavirus diagnoses, suggesting that the centers frantic efforts to sanitize the building, quarantine residents and shield staff members with gowns and visors may have come too late.

This caught them completely off guard, Jim Whitney, the medical services administrator for the nearby Redmond Fire Department, said. They just were not prepared for what was happening. None of us were.

Accounts from emergency responders, public health officials and those who had loved ones at Life Care show a cascading crisis marked by confusion and delays. A federal strike team of doctors and nurses did not arrive until more than a week after the first coronavirus cases were reported. Several crucial days ticked by before the facility was able to get tests for all its residents, making it impossible to tell which patients were already infected.

As a third of the centers workers fell sick or stayed home to avoid infection, the remaining nurses and aides strained to keep up as they worked 18-hour shifts. Patients were left in their beds, some of them scared and lonely.

Some of the health care employees at Life Care also worked at other nursing homes in the Puget Sound region. The ones who had been exposed to the virus at Life Care, investigators for the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found, took it with them to other facilities, opening new pathways of infection.

Tim Killian, a spokesman for Life Care, said that as the crisis unfolded, administrators and nurses were left largely on their own, with little help from the county, state, and federal governments to confront the worst public-health crisis in a century.

Who do you see in the parking lot helping? he said last week. Wheres everyone else? Why is it falling to this one nursing home to solve it for everybody? Why was the entirety of government unwilling to come in and help?

Life Care is part of a Tennessee-based chain of 200 facilities across the country. The facility earned five stars out of five on its federal ratings for overall care last year, and families praised the workers and quality of care.

Many of the homes roughly 120 residents were in their 80s or 90s, suffered from dementia and were there for good. Others were there for rehabilitation after a fall or surgery, and hoped to be on their own again.

The 180 staff members included physicians, physical therapists, nurses and nursing assistants, many of them immigrants, who did the intimate work of bathing residents, getting them dressed and lifting them out of bed to use the bathroom.

In early February, the staff began to get concerned about what appeared to be a rash of seasonal influenza. Nineteen long-term care centers had reported similar infections, King County health officials said.

Some families received phone calls that now look like flashing warning signs.

On Feb. 18, Cami Neidigh said, Life Care called about her 90-year-old mother, Geneva Wood, whom she described as an independent and crotchety and strong Texan who was recovering from a stroke. She had pneumonia, the facility said. The next day, another patient suffering from a respiratory ailment had been sent to a hospital Life Cares first evacuation.

On Feb. 20, 86-year-old Chuck Sedlacek, who was recovering from a fall that had broken his ankle, was moved into a shared room at Life Care with a man suffering from what had been diagnosed as pneumonia.

Ms. Wood and Mr. Sedlacek later tested positive for the coronavirus.

The Mardi Gras party went ahead on Feb. 26 under purple and gold ribbons garlanding the entertainment room. Residents snacked on king cake and sausage and rice, clapping and singing to the tunes of a visiting Gatsby Jazz band.

In hindsight, once we heard the news about what was there, we thought that maybe there shouldnt have been a party, said Patricia McCauley, 79, who had visited, with her husband, more than half a dozen times in the previous two weeks to see a friend who subsequently tested positive for the coronavirus and died.

Around that time, Lt. Dick Hughes of the Kirkland Fire Department began to notice a troubling pattern in the 911 calls from Life Care: patient after patient suddenly overwhelmed by fever and cough. The center had made seven 911 calls in January. From Feb. 1 through March 5, there were 33.

We had one. Then we had another one, then we had another one, Mr. Hughes said. Patients were falling ill, and deteriorating with troubling speed. The nurses kept saying, They were not like this two hours ago.

Neither the paramedic crews nor the sick residents had been wearing masks or other protection. As they loaded up patient after patient, Lieutenant Hughes thought to himself: This is way too many.

The nursing home started to discourage visitors, but it did not forbid them, and family members said they did not think anything was seriously wrong.

I didnt see anything, said Amy Jou, who visited on Feb. 28 to do her 93-year-old mothers laundry.

Ms. Neidigh came that same morning to bring her mother coffee and discuss plans for moving her back into her own apartment. She said the staff warned her about what it still thought was a respiratory outbreak, and urged her to wear a mask. She slipped one on, but since several staff members were not wearing protection, she said, she figured there was little to worry about.

Mr. Killian, the spokesman, said that while some administrators or reception staff may not have been wearing protection at that point, the workers in contact with patients were all in masks. Of course we were geared up, he said. Of course we were.

The first coronavirus case would be confirmed later that night.

Two days later, on March 1, the first death of a Life Care resident was announced. It was described in the terse language of a government news release as a male in his 70s with underlying health conditions. Nearly every day since has brought news of more.

As news crews swarmed outside, residents were tucked behind closed doors and signs warning about droplet precautions were taped onto the walls.

The workers, you could see they were stressed and worried, said Curtis Luterman, who managed to move his mother out of Life Care. Worried about getting sick. Worried about if this place is going to close. Worried about the people they were taking care of.

A staff members voice was shaky as she called 911 in early March to help a 63-year-old man who was struggling to breathe.

Is the patient awake right now? the dispatcher asked.

Hes somewhat conscious. Hes turning blue. Hes having a hard time breathing.

The dispatcher asked whether the man had traveled to Asia, Iran or Italy in the last 14 days. No, said the caller, but she pointed out that the nursing home had already had two coronavirus cases.

OK, sure. So what were going to ask you to do is we are going to ask you if its possible to wheel him outside and place a mask on him? the dispatcher asked.

Ooh. OK. Ill try.

A nursing assistant who worked at the facility until she asked for leave during the first week of March said the work grew harder as the staff dwindled.

The woman, who spoke on condition of anonymity because Life Care did not give her permission to describe what she experienced inside, said it was agony to see stricken residents fitted with face masks and wheeled out to meet arriving ambulances, one after another. When she came home at the end of each shift, her husband met her at the front door and tossed her uniform into a garbage bag to launder.

It was scary, she said. I didnt want to be contaminated.

Time dragged on. People anxious to connect with parents they could no longer be in the same room with pulled up lawn chairs outside their bedroom windows. They shouted I love you into their cellphones as masked, gowned workers held a telephone up to their parents ears on the other side of the glass.

When Charlie Campbell came to the window to visit his 89-year-old father, Eugene, who has dementia and later tested positive for the virus, a staff member helped his father into a wheelchair and handed him his room phone.

We talked about the food, my mom and when he might be able to go back to living with her, Mr. Campbell said.

Some had to search for answers from a distance as their relatives deteriorated.

Carolyn Lockleys 65-year-old sister, Renee Gibbs, seemed incoherent and could barely remember what she had eaten for lunch when Ms. Lockley called her from her home outside of Philadelphia on March 2.

Ms. Gibbs, a longtime Life Care resident who was paralyzed because of multiple sclerosis, had received a pneumonia diagnosis weeks earlier. As they talked that afternoon, Ms. Lockley could hear her sisters roommate coughing in the background. Because there were not enough tests to go around, her sister still had not been tested for the coronavirus, but her sister feared she might have it. A nurse reported that her blood pressure was rising.

She promised to call with any updates but did not. When Ms. Lockley tried to get through to the center later, the phone rang and rang. She hung up and called 911.

I want them to take her to a hospital, she told the 911 dispatcher, her voice shaking. When I talked to her earlier today she was incoherent. Several people at the facility had already died, she told her.

I understand that, the dispatcher replied.

I am getting scared, Ms. Lockley said.

A team drove out from the Fire Department that evening, but the responders said Ms. Gibbs had told them she felt fine and did not want to go to a hospital.

Hours later, around 4 a.m., Ms. Gibbs developed a fever and was taken to the EvergreenHealth medical center, where she learned she had the coronavirus. She died five days later.

After her fall, Ms. Rapp, who had worked in the office of an elementary school, had struggled with moving into a nursing home. She was partial to the senior-living complex she had shared with her husband of more than 50 years before his death. But she had been doing better lately. Her room was decorated with family photos, and she made friends. When a new resident arrived, she would assure them with friendly bluntness: Dont worry, they cant kick you out.

Three times a day, she would show up at the bedside of Susan Hailey, 76, who had moved into Life Care for rehabilitation after a knee replacement, but had shattered her ankle in a fall and could no longer get out of bed. Ms. Rapp would chat with Ms. Haileys daughters and then buzz away in her wheelchair.

She loved to joke, said Ms. Hailey, who tested positive for the virus and is still at Life Care. If there were too many people in my room, shed leave. She didnt want to interrupt us. Ms. Hailey would tell her, Oh Loretta, youre not.

On Feb. 29, Ms. Rapp was transported to an isolated intensive-care room at the hospital. When she tested positive for the coronavirus, she ruefully called it the icing on the cake.

She was in such pain. On a conference call with her son and her doctor, days before she died on March 8, Ms. Rapp decided that she only wanted comfort care from there till the end.

Her son, Ken Rapp, said he and his mother spoke for a while longer on that final call; they exchanged I love yous, and he told her that he wished the family could be there with her. Eventually, they had to say goodbye.

Its the weirdest thing, Mr. Rapp said. Sitting there on the phone, hitting that red button and knowing youll never talk to her again.

But Mr. Rapp said his mother made it clear they should not try to come: She wouldnt wish this on anyone. Dont, she told him.

Mike Baker contributed reporting from Seattle and Matt Richtel from San Francisco. Susan Beachy, Jack Begg and Sheelagh McNeill contributed research.

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The Coronaviruss Rampage Through a Suburban Nursing Home - The New York Times

America Will Save America from the Coronavirus – The New York Times

March 21, 2020

After arguing for the importance of the care economy for years, I was delighted to see, after only one day of kids staying home, three different men tweet versions of the following: First day of home schooling and I now firmly believe that teachers should be paid like C.E.O.s. Indeed they should, and after this crisis subsides, we may finally be able to build support for higher teacher pay and prestige.

All these transitions take money, of course, and above all the basic security that allows people to see opportunity rather than devastation, to feel hope rather than fear. We must mitigate the rising panic as we contemplate the possibility that millions of Americans will simply not have a paycheck as local economies shut down.

Here, too, we are seeing a fast forward, to a rudimentary Universal Basic Income. Congress is considering various versions of that, including one proposal that would provide initial direct cash payments of $2,000 per person for every adult and child in families making up to $180,000, beginning in April.

Once again, however, we dont have to wait for Washington. The nonprofit group Give Directly, which has been testing universal basic income in Kenya, is raising money to provide $1,000 to families in need across the United States. The group is working with Propel, a company that made an app for managing food stamp benefits, to identify families in the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, typically single mothers. Payments will be made through debit cards that can be loaded remotely, or by setting recipients up with online wallets. Communities can adapt versions of this system, creating an informal tax that could become a formal one.

Finally, all of this innovation will require universal access to fast, affordable broadband. Our government has an obligation to provide public education; it must now provide the broadband to make that education possible. It can certainly be done, but the government will have to better regulate private internet service providers and move to more accountable municipally owned internet service utilities, like the one that offers the nations fastest broadband, in Chattanooga, Tenn.

The future is here, whether we like it or not. Although a future dependent on the current federal government looks bleak, we can vote to change that in November. Right now, we can follow the lead of local and regional leaders and step up ourselves. Through the virus, we are rediscovering the dark side of the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.s famous inescapable network of mutuality, tied in a single garment of destiny. But we can also rediscover what is possible and what we are capable of as a nation. We can use this crisis to create a better America.

Anne-Marie Slaughter, a former director of policy planning for the State Department, is the chief executive of New America.

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America Will Save America from the Coronavirus - The New York Times

In Italy, Coronavirus Takes a Higher Toll on Men – The New York Times

March 21, 2020

The coronavirus is striking, and felling, more Italian men than women, and some experts are warning that being male may be a risk factor for the illness, just as older age is.

The Italian trend mirrors one seen in China, where men were more likely than women to die of Covid-19.

In Italy, more men than women have been infected, and a higher proportion of infected men have died. Some 8 percent of male patients died, compared with 5 percent of female patients, according to a Higher Health Institute of Rome analysis of 25,058 cases.

Being male is as much a risk factor for the coronavirus as being old, said Sabra Klein, a scientist who studies sex difference in viral infections at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. People need to be aware that there is this pattern. Just like being old means youre at higher risk, so does being male. Its a risk factor.

She said the vulnerability could be biological or behavioral. Women have more robust immune systems, Dr. Klein said. And more men smoke in higher numbers, and they are less likely to wash their hands, studies show.

We dont always understand why something is a risk factor, and were probably not going to be able to pinpoint one thing, Dr. Klein said. But its remarkable that were seeing this across such socially and culturally distinct countries as Italy and China. More needs to be made of this fact.

On Friday, Dr. Deborah Birx, the coronavirus response coordinator for the White House, mentioned the gender disparity in deaths in Italy, but said the gender gap was twice as high in men at all ages. In fact, the report mentioned no deaths in people under 30 and very few deaths among men and women in their 40s and 50s. The heightened risk to men becomes apparent in their 50s, with the gender gap tapering off somewhat only at 90, probably because there are fewer men in this age group.

Over all, men represented 58 percent of 25,058 coronavirus cases in Italy, and 70 percent of the 1,697 deaths described in the report.

In China, the death rate for men was 2.8 percent, compared to 1.7 percent for women, according to the largest analysis of cases by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

Men also were disproportionately affected during the SARS and MERS outbreaks, which were caused by coronaviruses. More women than men were infected by SARS in Hong Kong in 2003, but the death rate among men was 50 percent higher, according to a study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.

Some 32 percent of men infected with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome died, compared with 25.8 percent of women. Young adult men also died at higher rates than female peers during the influenza epidemic of 1918.

Women appear to have stronger immune systems than men. The female sex hormone estrogen appears to play a role in immunity, as does the X chromosome, which contains immune-related genes. Women carry two X chromosomes; men only one.

But women also develop more autoimmune diseases such as lupus and rheumatoid arthritis, in which the immune system attacks the bodys own organs and tissues.

Other health and behavioral factors may also be contributing to mens vulnerability. Men develop cardiovascular disease and hypertension at younger ages than women, and both of these conditions increase the potential for severe disease, said Kathryn Sandberg, director of the Center for the Study of Sex Differences in Health, Aging and Disease at Georgetown University.

Men also smoke at higher rates than women. In China, more than half of all men smoke, compared with less than 3 percent of women; in Italy nearly 30 percent of men smoke, compared with 19 percent of women. In the United States, the smoking gap is smaller, with 17.5 percent of men smoking compared with 13.5 percent of women.

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In Italy, Coronavirus Takes a Higher Toll on Men - The New York Times

Why were not overreacting to the coronavirus pandemic, in one chart – Vox.com

March 21, 2020

The national mobilization against the coronavirus is now in full swing. Schools and workplaces nationwide have shuttered. The federal government has recommended that people not gather in groups of 10 or more. Social distancing and self-isolation are now becoming part of the fabric of daily American life.

This has all sparked a serious question among many people: Are we overreacting? Its not just a question being asked by partiers and bar-goers it has also been asked in the New York Times. A widely circulated article by Stanfords John Ioannidis suggests that the stepped-up US response is a fiasco in the making thats being made without enough data.

To someone who hasnt been following the pandemics spread closely, the drastic measures indeed might seem like an overreaction. After all, around 13,000 cases and 200 deaths as of Thursday in a country of 330 million doesnt seem that bad. Is it really worth shutting down the economy, a measure that will of course have horrific costs of its own, for such a small toll?

But the numbers mask whats really causing experts to worry: The coronaviruss trajectory is putting us on a course of many, many more cases and many, many more deaths unless we do something drastic.

In other words, theres a simple answer to the question: No, were not overreacting.

To explain why were not overreacting, we need to look to the experience of another country going through the coronavirus crisis: Italy. Heres a chart comparing the countrys cases to the USs.

A couple of weeks ago, Italy was much like us, with 107 deaths on March 4. But things were already rapidly getting worse; by March 10, more than 600 people were dead, and today more than 3,400 are. That makes Italy the epicenter of coronavirus fatalities in the world, with more deaths than even China, where the outbreak started. Hospitals have been pushed to the breaking point, with doctors and nurses without adequate protective equipment collapsing at work and other doctors reporting that patients wont all get lifesaving care because there isnt enough of it to go around.

Whats scary about Italys experience is that Italy wasnt exactly passive in its response to the virus. The country did act, quarantining a dozen towns in northern regions on February 23, urging the public to engage in social distancing, and ordering the closure of all schools nationwide on March 4.

But case numbers kept growing. On March 8, Italy locked down the north of the country, and on March 9 it extended the lockdown to the whole country. Now, it looks like these extreme efforts might have slowed the rate of growth of cases. On March 15, there were 3,590 new cases. On March 16, 3,233. On the 17th, 3,526. And on the 18th, 4,207. Thats not exponential growth, suggesting the lockdown really did help but those still arent good numbers, especially when Italys hospitals are already overwhelmed.

Italy has been devastated by the virus because the action it took was just a little too moderate, a little too restrained, and a little too slow. The country took measures that were substantial and costly but nonetheless insufficient to actually bring the epidemic to a halt. (This was the message hammered home in a recent project where Italians sent video messages to themselves 10 days ago.)

Theres some reason to think we wont be hit as hard as Italy. Italys population is older than ours, and older people are hit hardest by the virus. Smoking might affect death tolls, too, and smoking is more common in Europe than in the US. Because the United States is bigger, US reported cases per capita are a little further behind Italys than the raw confirmed case numbers are. And comparing confirmed cases across countries is difficult anyway, because most countries are undertesting and its hard to be sure who is undertesting more.

But the bottom line remains that theres no real reason to think measures that didnt suffice in Italy will suffice here.

The lesson from Italy isnt just that you have to act before your hospitals are overwhelmed. Its that you have to take steps that appear in the moment to be an exceptional overreaction because by the time it looks like the steps youre taking are appropriate, it will have been too late.

Now, when public health experts say the US is on Italys trajectory, what exactly does that mean?

It means that the US and most European countries are seeing early coronavirus growth numbers that look like the ones from Italy. Our confirmed cases are increasing at about the rate theirs did. That gives us every reason to think our health systems will eventually be overwhelmed like theirs were, unless we take strong measures sooner than they did.

So far, weve taken some strong measures which is good. But its not clear that were acting that much faster than Italy did and remember, Italy wasnt fast enough.

The frightening chart above compares the USs reactions to Italys. It shows confirmed case numbers in Italy and in the US, starting on the day when each country passed 100 confirmed cases. It shows the points at which Italy took various precautionary measures. To break away from Italys trajectory, we need to take measures that are stronger than the ones it took, or take measures sooner along the trajectory than it did.

The US passed the 13,000 confirmed case mark on Thursday. Italy locked down the northern half of the country on the day it reached 13,000 cases and extended the lockdown to the southern half one day later.

To be sure, there are a lot of problems with using confirmed case data for these trajectory estimates. Italy is likely substantially undertesting, as is the US. Confirmed cases are a poor reflection of overall cases. Sometimes, growth in confirmed cases is due to increases in testing capacity, not increases in the viruss spread.

But even with those caveats, confirmed case data isnt worthless. They lag behind reality, Caitlin Rivers, a senior associate at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told me on Monday, but theyre still our best window into what is going on.

And looking through that window, the picture looks bleak for the US. Taking the drastic steps some parts of the country are now taking, like the California stay-at-home order, gives us a chance not a guarantee, to be clear to veer from the Italian trajectory. (This online tool offers state-by-state projections of hospitalizations over time depending on which interventions a state takes.)

In a press conference on March 16, the National Institutes of Healths Dr. Anthony Fauci, who has played a major role in leading the US response, explained to Americans why the strong measures the government was taking were not an overreaction.

Some will look and say, well, maybe weve gone a little bit too far, he said. The thing that I want to reemphasize, and Ill say it over and over again, when youre dealing with an emerging infectious diseases outbreak, you are always behind where you think you are if you think that today reflects where you really are.

Lets say that today we found 1,000 new Covid-19 cases. Keep in mind that the virus has a two- to 10-day incubation period. In the past week or so, each of those people was exposed to the virus. Then they got sick. Then they got sick enough to seek medical attention, which can take a few more days. Then they got a test. Then the test took a day or more to return positive results (some people are reporting longer waits than that for results, while some newly designed tests might be able to get results faster).

Each of those positive tests, then, reflects an infection up to two weeks ago. The situation has already worsened for the two weeks or so since those new cases were infected. For much of that time, those 1,000 people have been out and about in the world, potentially infecting others. In a population not taking strong social distancing measures, it is estimated that on average they will have infected two or three others. Some of those newly infected will themselves have started infecting others.

Italy took strong measures. Its mistake was not that it didnt react at all its that it kept being a little bit behind the ball. Each measure was appropriate to the situation the Italians observed. But the real situation was always much worse. So things kept worsening until they pulled out all the stops with a countrywide lockdown.

It will always seem that the best way to address [the virus] would be to be doing something that looks like it might be an overreaction, Fauci said. It isnt an overreaction. Its reaction we feel is commensurate [with what] is actually going on in reality.

To break away from Italys trajectory, we have to respond with stronger measures than Italy. We have to respond in ways that feel like an overreaction. In the past few days, weve seen the first US steps that are stronger than Italys responses at a similar point in the outbreak steps like the Bay Areas shelter-in-place order, the follow-up extending it to all of California, New Yorks similar order Friday, and state orders shutting down restaurants and bars. Thats what it will take to give ourselves a chance at a different curve.

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Why were not overreacting to the coronavirus pandemic, in one chart - Vox.com

Coronavirus Will Change the World Permanently. Heres How. – POLITICO

March 21, 2020

Revived trust in institutions.Michiko Kakutani is author of the 2018 bestseller The Death of Truth and former chief book critic of the New York Times.

The coronavirus pandemic, one hopes, will jolt Americans into a realization that the institutions and values Donald Trump has spent his presidency assailing are essential to the functioning of a democracyand to its ability to grapple effectively with a national crisis. A recognition that government institutionsincluding those entrusted with protecting our health, preserving our liberties and overseeing our national securityneed to be staffed with experts (not political loyalists), that decisions need to be made through a reasoned policy process and predicated on evidence-based science and historical and geopolitical knowledge (not on Trump-ian alternative facts, political expediency or what Thomas Pynchon called, in Gravitys Rainbow, a chaos of peeves, whims, hallucinations and all-round assholery). Instead of Trumps America First foreign policy, we need to return to multilateral diplomacy, and to the understanding that co-operation with alliesand adversaries, toois especially necessary when it comes to dealing with global problems like climate change and viral pandemics.

Most of all, we need to remember that public trust is crucial to governanceand that trust depends on telling the truth. As the historian John M. Barry wrote in his 2004 book The Great Influenzaa harrowing chronicle of the 1918 flu pandemic, which killed an estimated 50 million people worldwidethe main lesson from that catastrophe is that those in authority must retain the publics trust and the way to do that is to distort nothing, to put the best face on nothing, to try to manipulate no one.

Expect a political uprising.Cathy ONeil is founder and CEO of the algorithmic auditing company ORCAA and author of Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy.

The aftermath of the coronavirus is likely to include a new political uprisingan Occupy Wall Street 2.0, but this time much more massive and angrier. Once the health emergency is over, we will see the extent to which rich, well-connected and well-resourced communities will have been taken care of, while contingent, poor and stigmatized communities will have been thoroughly destroyed. Moreover, we will have seen how political action is possiblemultitrillion dollar bailouts and projects can be mobilized quicklybut only if the cause is considered urgent. This mismatch of long-disregarded populations finally getting the message that their needs are not only chronically unattended, but also chronically dismissed as politically required, will likely have drastic, pitchfork consequences.

Electronic voting goes mainstream.Joe Brotherton is chairman of Democracy Live, a startup that provides electronic ballots.

One victim of COVID-19 will be the old model of limiting voting to polling places where people must gather in close proximity for an extended period of time. We have been gradually moving away from this model since 2010, when Congress passed a law requiring electronic balloting for military and overseas voters, and some states now require accessible at-home voting for blind and disabled voters. Over the long term, as election officials grapple with how to allow for safe voting in the midst of a pandemic, the adoption of more advanced technologyincluding secure, transparent, cost-effective voting from our mobile devicesis more likely. In the near-term, a hybrid modelmobile-phone voting with paper ballots for tabulationis emerging in the 2020 election cycle in certain jurisdictions. We should expect that option to become more widespread. To be clear, proven technologies now exist that offer mobile, at-home voting while still generating paper ballots. This system is not an idea; it is a reality that has been used in more than 1,000 elections for nearly a decade by our overseas military and disabled voters. This should be the new normal.

Election Day will become Election Month.Lee Drutman is a senior fellow at New America and author of Breaking the Two-Party Doom Loop: The Case for Multiparty Democracy in America.

How do we hold an election in the time of coronavirus? By making it easier to vote when citizens want and where they want, so that Election Day doesnt become a health risk of big crowds and long lines. The change will come through expanded early voting and no-excuse mail-in balloting, effectively turning Election Day into Election Month (or maybe months, depending on the closeness of the election and the leniency for late-arriving ballots postmarked on Election Day). This transition requires considerable thought and planning to ensure that all communities are treated equally, and to prevent fraud. But facing the prospect of crowded polling places staffed by at-risk poll workers (who tend to be older), states will come under tremendous pressure to develop plans so that the election can go on regardless. This will mark a permanent change. Once citizens experience the convenience of early voting and/or voting by mail, they wont want to give it up. More convenience will generate higher voter turnout, potentially transforming partisan competition in America.

Voting by mail will become the norm.Kevin R. Kosar is vice president of research partnerships at the R Street Institute.

To date, five statesGeorgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland and Ohiohave postponed their presidential primaries. More states may well follow. But these elections cannot be put off indefinitely. Parties need to hold their conventions and select a presidential nominee before the autumn general election. The coronavirus might, according to some reports, continue to menace Americans through June or even the end of summer. In most states, this means elections policy is inviting an electoral train wreck. The clock is ticking.

Fortunately, there is a time-tested means for the country to escape the choice between protecting public health and allowing voters to exercise their right to vote: voting by mail. Military members overseas have voted by mail for decades. Some states, such as Washington, Oregon and Utah, already let everyone vote at home. They send every voter a ballot and then let them choose to cast it either via mail or at a polling place. Unfortunately, most states have set the toggle to voting in-person and requiring individuals to request to vote by mail. Voters already receive registration cards and elections guides by mail. Why not ballots? Given the risks that in-person voting poses, states now have urgent cause to move immediately to modernize their hidebound systemsand we should soon expect them to.

Dale Ho is director of the Voting Rights Project at the American Civil Liberties Union.

The COVID-19 pandemic poses an unprecedented threat to the way that most people vote: in person on Election Day. But there are several obvious steps we can take to ensure that no one has to choose between their health and their right to vote.

First, every eligible voter should be mailed a ballot and a self-sealing return envelope with prepaid postage. All ballots postmarked by Election Day should be accepted and counted. Ballots cast by mail should not be discarded based on errors or technicalities without first notifying voters of any defects and giving them an opportunity to correct them. At the same time, states can preserve in-person voting opportunities for people who need themsuch as voters with disabilities, with limited English proficiency, with limited postal access or who register after mail-in ballots have been sent out.

Elections administrators should receive extra resources to recruit younger poll workers, to ensure their and in-person voters health and safety, and to expand capacity to quickly and accurately process what will likely be an unprecedented volume of mail-in votes. Moreover, states should eliminate restrictions prohibiting elections officials from processing mail-in ballots until Election Day (15 states currently have such restrictions). And the media should help set public expectations that, in an environment with record levels of mail-in voting, tabulating results and forecasting winners may take longer than we have grown accustomed to.

If a state cannot do all of the above, it should take as many of these steps as possible. The current crisis makes these changes all the more necessaryand all the more likely to happen.

More restraints on mass consumption.Sonia Shah is author of Pandemic: Tracking Contagions From Cholera to Ebola and Beyond and the forthcoming The Next Great Migration: The Beauty and Terror of Life on the Move.

In the best-case scenario, the trauma of the pandemic will force society to accept restraints on mass consumer culture as a reasonable price to pay to defend ourselves against future contagions and climate disasters alike. For decades, weve sated our outsized appetites by encroaching on an ever-expanding swath of the planet with our industrial activities, forcing wild species to cram into remaining fragments of habitat in closer proximity to ours. Thats what has allowed animal microbes such as SARS-COV2not to mention hundreds of others from Ebola to Zikato cross over into human bodies, causing epidemics. In theory, we could decide to shrink our industrial footprint and conserve wildlife habitat, so that animal microbes stay in animals bodies, instead. More likely, well see less directly relevant transformations. Universal basic income and mandatory paid sick leave will move from the margins to the center of policy debates. The end of mass quarantine will unleash pent-up demand for intimacy and a mini baby-boom. The hype around online education will be abandoned, as a generation of young people forced into seclusion will reshape the culture around a contrarian appreciation for communal life.

Stronger domestic supply chains.Todd N. Tucker is director of Governance Studies at the Roosevelt Institute.

In the ancient days of 2018, the Trump administration was panned by experts for imposing tariffs on imported steel on a global basis for national security reasons. As the president tweeted at the time, IF YOU DONT HAVE STEEL, YOU DONT HAVE A COUNTRY! But to most economists, China was the real reason for disruptions in the metal market, and imposing tariffs additionally on U.S. allies was nonsensical, the argument went: After all, even if America lost its steel industry altogether, we would still be able to count on supplies from allies in North America and Europe.

Fast forward to 2020. Just this week, U.S. allies are considering substantial border restrictions, including shutting down ports and restricting exports. While theres no indication that the coronavirus per se is being transmitted through commerce, one can imagine a perfect storm in which deep recessions plus mounting geopolitical tensions limit Americas access to its normal supply chains and the lack of homegrown capacity in various product markets limits the governments ability to respond nimbly to threats. Reasonable people can differ over whether Trumps steel tariffs were the right response at the right time. In the years ahead, however, expect to see more support from Democrats, Republicans, academics and diplomats for the notion that government has a much bigger role to play in creating adequate redundancy in supply chainsresilient even to trade shocks from allies. This will be a substantial reorientation from even the very recent past.

Dambisa Moyo is an economist and author.

The coronavirus pandemic will create move pressure on corporations to weigh the efficiency and costs/benefits of a globalized supply chain system against the robustness of a domestic-based supply chain. Switching to a more robust domestic supply chain would reduce dependence on an increasingly fractured global supply system. But while this would better ensure that people get the goods they need, this shift would likely also increase costs to corporations and consumers.

The inequality gap will widen.Theda Skocpol is professor of government and sociology at Harvard.

Discussions of inequality in America often focus on the growing gap between the bottom 99 percent and the top 1 percent. But the other gap that has grown is between the top fifth and all the restand that gap will be exacerbated by this crisis.

The wealthiest fifth of Americans have made greater income gains than those below them in the income hierarchy in recent decades. They are more often members of married, highly educated couples. As high-salary professionals or managers, they live in Internet-ready homes that will accommodate telecommutingand where children have their own bedrooms and arent as disruptive to a work-from-home schedule. In this crisis, most will earn steady incomes while having necessities delivered to their front doors.

The other 80 percent of Americans lack that financial cushion. Some will be OK, but many will struggle with job losses and family burdens. They are more likely to be single parents or single-income households. Theyre less able to work from home, and more likely employed in the service or delivery sectors, in jobs that put them at greater danger of coming into contact with the coronavirus. In many cases, their children will not gain educationally at home, because parents will not be able to teach them, or their households might lack access to the high-speed Internet that enables remote instruction.

A hunger for diversion.Mary Frances Berry is professor of American social thought, history and Africana Studies at the University of Pennsylvania.

Some trends already underway will probably acceleratefor example, using voice technology to control entryways, security and the like. In the short term, universities will add courses on pandemics, and scientists will devise research projects to improve forecasting, treatment and diagnosis. But history suggests another outcome, as well. After the disastrous 1918-19 Spanish flu and the end of World War I, many Americans sought carefree entertainment, which the introduction of cars and the radio facilitated. Young women newly able to vote under the 19th Amendment bobbed their hair, frequented speakeasies and danced the Charleston. The economy quickly rebounded and flourished for about 10 years, until irrational investment tilted the United States and the world into the Great Depression. Probably, given past behavior, when this pandemic is over, human beings will respond with the same sense of relief and a search for community, relief from stress and pleasure.

Less communal diningbut maybe more cooking.Paul Freedman is a history professor at Yale and author, most recently, of American Cuisine: And How It Got This Way.

For the past few years, Americans have spent more money on food prepared outside the home than on buying and making their meals. But, now, with restaurants mostly closed and as isolation increases, many people will learn or relearn how to cook over the next weeks. Maybe they will fall back in love with cooking, though I wont hold my breath, or perhaps delivery will triumph over everything else. Sit-down restaurants also could close permanently as people frequent them less; it is likely there will be many fewer sit-down restaurants in Europe and the United States. We will be less communal at least for a while.

A revival of parks.Alexandra Lange is the architecture critic at Curbed.

People often see parks as a destination for something specific, like soccer fields, barbecues or playgrounds, and all of those functions must now be avoided. But that doesnt make the parks any less valuable. Im sheltering in place in Brooklyn with my family, and every day, the one time we go outside is to walk a loop north through Brooklyn Bridge Park and south down the Brooklyn Heights Promenade. Im seeing people asking Golden Gate Park to close the roads so theres even more space for people. In Britain, the National Trust is trying to open more gardens and parks for free. Urban parksin which most major cities have made significant investments over the past decadeare big enough to accommodate both crowds and social distancing. It helps that it is spring in the northern hemisphere.

Society might come out of the pandemic valuing these big spaces even more, not only as the backdrop to major events and active uses, but as an opportunity to be together visually. Ive been writing a book about shopping malls, and I would certainly not recommend a visit right now (all those virus-carrying surfaces). But, in suburban communities, malls have historically served the same function: somewhere to go, somewhere to be together. What we have right now is parks. After this is all over, I would love to see more public investment in open, accessible, all-weather places to gather, even after we no longer need to stay six feet apart.

A change in our understanding of change.Matthew Continetti is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

Paradigm shift is among the most overused phrases in journalism. Yet the coronavirus pandemic may be one case where it applies. American society is familiar with a specific model of change, operating within the existing parameters of our liberal democratic institutions, mostly free market and society of expressive individualism. But the coronavirus doesnt just attack the immune system. Like the Civil War, Great Depression and World War II, it has the potential to infect the foundations of free society. State and local government are moving at varying and sometimes contrary speeds to address a crisis of profound dimensions. The global economy has entered the opening stages of a recession that has the potential to become a depression. Already, large parts of America have shut down entirely. Americans have said goodbye to a society of frivolity and ceaseless activity in a flash, and the federal government is taking steps more often seen during wartime. Our collective notions of the possible have changed already. If the danger the coronavirus poses both to individual health and to public health capacity persists, we will be forced to revise our very conception of change. The paradigm will shift.

The tyranny of habit no more.Virginia Heffernan is author of Magic and Loss: The Internet as Art.

Humans are not generally disposed to radical departures from their daily rounds. But the recent fantasy of optimizing a lifefor peak performance, productivity, efficiencyhas created a cottage industry that tries to make the dreariest possible lives sound heroic. Jordan Peterson has been commanding lost male souls to make their beds for years now. The Four-Hour Workweek, The Power of Habit and Atomic Habits urge readers to automate certain behaviors to keep them dutifully overworking and under-eating.

But COVID-19 suggests that Peterson (or any other habit-preaching martinet) is not the leader for our time. Instead, consider Albert Camus, who, in The Plague, blames the obliteration of a fictional Algerian town by an epidemic on one thing: consistency. The truth is, Camus writes of the crushingly dull port town, everyone is bored, and devotes himself to cultivating habits. The habit-bound townspeople lack imagination. It takes them far too long to take in that death is stalking them, and its past time to stop taking the streetcar, working for money, bowling and going to the movies.

Maybe, as in Camus time, it will take the dual specters of autocracy and disease to get us to listen to our common sense, our imaginations, our eccentricitiesand not our programming. A more expansive and braver approach to everyday existence is now crucial so that we dont fall in line with Trump-like tyrannies, cant and orthodoxy, and environmentally and physiologically devastating behaviors (including our favorites: driving cars, eating meat, burning electricity). This current plague time might see a recharged commitment to a closer-to-the-bone worldview that recognizes we have a short time on earth, the Doomsday Clock is a minute from midnight, and living peacefully and meaningfully together is going to take much more than bed-making and canny investments. The Power of No Habits.

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Coronavirus Will Change the World Permanently. Heres How. - POLITICO

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