Category: Corona Virus

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Heres How Many People Have the Coronavirus in Your State – The Atlantic

March 21, 2020

Read: The strongest evidence yet that American is botching coronavirus testing

This surge in testing capacity was slow in coming. In the 10 days after February 26when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed that the coronavirus was being transmitted through community spread in the United Statesfederal and state labs tested 2,806 Americans. Another week elapsed before the country had tested 20,000 people. In the few days since, the country has expanded its testing capacity to cover at least that many people every day.

Yet the national numbers are still distorted by massive testing operations in just a few states. New York, California, and Washington have conducted nearly half of all tests nationwide, even though those states contain, combined, about a fifth of the countrys population. Florida and Texaseach home to more than 20 million peoplehave tested only about 3,000 patients each.

Some state public-health departments arent reporting as much information as others. Weve assigned every state a letter grade in the chart above to help readers understand how thorough each one is in its reporting. This grade is not assessing the quality of a states testing, but rather the transparency and regularity of its reporting.

All 50 states and Washington, D.C., regularly report their number of positive cases. Some states, such as Connecticut, disclose little additional information, so weve assigned them a grade of D. But others, such as Florida, publish not only their positive cases but also their negative cases and the results of tests conducted by private labs. Those states get an A grade. Having this full suite of figures at the state level allows for a far greater understanding of the size of both the outbreak and the response.

Read: The 4 key reasons the U.S. is so behind on coronavirus testing

In the chart above, each states number of positive cases includes people who are currently ill with the disease, people who have recovered from it, and people who have died. We have also broken out the number of deaths in its own column.

Some states have used strict criteria to determine who can and cannot be tested for the coronavirus. While we havent factored these into a states grade, we think these ruleswhile perhaps necessary, given the shortage of tests available from the CDChave led states to substantially undercount how many people had been infected in their communities, especially during the last week of February and the first two weeks of March. At least 18 states have enforced particularly stringent rules in some counties or hospitals: California, Hawaii, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. (Some of those states, such as Hawaii and Maryland, have since loosened their criteria.)

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Heres How Many People Have the Coronavirus in Your State - The Atlantic

What is coronavirus and what is the mortality rate? – The Guardian

March 21, 2020

What do we know about the virus now?

The Covid-19 virus is a member of the coronavirus family that made the jump from animals to humans late last year. Many of those initially infected either worked or frequently shopped in the Huanan seafood wholesale market in the centre of the Chinese city of Wuhan. Unusually for a virus that has made the jump from one species to another, it appears to transmit effectively in humans current estimates show that without strong containment measures the average person who catches Covid-19 will pass it on to two others. The virus also appears to have a higher mortality rate than common illnesses such as seasonal flu. The combination of coronaviruss ability to spread and cause serious illness has prompted many countries, including the UK, to introduce or plan extensive public health measures aimed at containing and limiting the impact of the epidemic.

Wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds and do this often, including when you get home or into work. Use hand sanitiser gel if soap and water are not available. Avoid touching your face. Cough or sneeze into a tissue or the crook of your elbow (not your hand) and put used tissues straight in the bin. Avoid close contact with people who are showing possible symptoms. Follow NHS guidance on self-isolation and travel.

The coronavirus outbreak hit amid flu season in the northern hemisphere and even doctors can struggle to distinguish between the two the overlap in symptoms probably contributed to slow detection of community infections in some countries, including Italy.

Typical flu symptoms, which normally come on quickly, include a high fever, sore throat, muscle aches, headaches, shivers, runny or stuffy nose, fatigue and, more occasionally, vomiting and diarrhoea. Doctors are still working to understand the full scope of symptoms and severity for Covid-19, but early studies of patients taken to hospital found nearly all of them developed a fever and dry cough, and many had fatigue and muscle aches. Pneumonia (lung infection) is common in coronavirus patients, even outside the most severe cases, and this can lead to breathing difficulties. A runny nose and sore throat are far less common, reported by just 5% of patients. The only real confirmation of having Covid-19 is taking a test though.

In the UK, the medical advice is now that the household of anyone who develops a new persistent cough or high temperature should all stay at home for 14 days, keeping away from other people. This applies to everyone, regardless of whether they have travelled abroad.

You should look on the dedicated coronavirus NHS 111 website for information. If you get worse or your symptoms last longer than seven days, you should call NHS 111. People will no longer be tested for the virus unless they are in hospital.

A large study in China found that about 80% of confirmed cases had fairly mild symptoms (defined as no significant infection in the lungs). About 15% had severe symptoms that caused significant shortness of breath, low blood oxygen or other lung problems, and fewer than 5% of cases were critical, featuring respiratory failure, septic shock or multiple organ problems. However, it is possible that a larger number of very mild cases are going under the radar, and so this breakdown in severity could change over time as wider screening takes place. Older people and those with respiratory problems, heart disease or diabetes are at greater risk.

It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower. The World Health Organizations director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, talked of 3.4%, but his figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. We know there are many more mild cases that do not get to hospital and are not being counted, which would bring the mortality rate significantly down.

Deaths are highest in the elderly, with very low rates among younger people, although medical staff who treat patients and get exposed to a lot of virus are thought to be more at risk. But even among the over-80s, 90% will recover.

Most infections happen in families, where people live at close quarters. You need to be within one to two metres of somebody to be infected by viral-loaded water droplets from their coughs or when they are speaking. That is less likely on public transport. However, it would be possible to pick up the virus on your hands from a surface that somebody with the infection had touched. The virus can linger for 48 hours or even possibly 72 hours on a hard surface, such as the hand rail in the tube though less time on a soft surface. That is why the advice is to wash your hands regularly and avoid touching your face, to prevent the virus getting into your nose, mouth or eyes.

Not at the moment, but drugs that are known to work against some viruses are being trialled in China, where there are thousands of patients, and new trials are starting in the US and other countries. Large numbers are needed to find out whether they work in a few people or a lot of people or nobody at all. The most hopeful are Kaletra, which is a combination of two anti-HIV drugs, and remdesivir, which was tried but failed in Ebola patients in west Africa in 2013 and 2016. Some Chinese doctors are also trying chloroquine, an antimalarial drug, which is off-patent, therefore cheap and highly available, and would be very useful in low-income countries. The first results are expected in mid-March and should indicate if the drugs will at least help those who are most severely ill. A miracle cure is not expected.

Efforts to develop an effective vaccine for Covid-19 have been quick compared with historical epidemics, such as Ebola. A number of teams are already testing vaccine candidates in animals and preparing to carry out small trials in people. The US company, Moderna Therapeutics, is already recruiting and hopes to enrol 45 volunteers between 18 and 55 and will launch their trial imminently. Phase one trials like this look at whether the vaccine triggers an immune response and whether the given dose causes adverse effects and could be completed quite quickly. However, the subsequent phases, which will involve thousands of volunteers and will look more closely at efficacy, will take longer and obtaining a commercially available vaccine within a year would be extremely quick. The governments chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, said he did not think a working vaccine to protect people from the coronavirus would be produced in time for the current outbreak, but that a timeframe of a year or 18 months was not unreasonable to assume.

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What is coronavirus and what is the mortality rate? - The Guardian

Coronavirus can live on surfaces for days. But it can’t travel through the mail, experts say – USA TODAY

March 21, 2020

Amazon plans to hire 100,000 workers to assist with online deliveries in the U.S. and raise their minimum pay to at least $17 an hour through April. USA TODAY

With storesstripped bare of household essentials, retailers cutting back hoursand experts calling for social distancing amid the spread of coronavirus, many people may rely on delivery services to get what they need.

A study published in theNew England Journal of Medicine on Tuesdayfoundthat coronavirus could be detected up to three hours after aerosolizationin the air, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel.

This had led some to wonder whether thosepackages on their front porch could spread coronavirus. The answer seems to beno. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that the virus isspread through respiratory droplets and there is currently no evidence to support the transmission of COVID-19 with imported goods.

"In general, because of poor survivability of these coronaviruses on surfaces, there is likely very low risk of spread from products or packaging that are shipped over a period of days or weeks at ambient temperatures," the CDC said on its website.

The World Health Organization offered similar guidance saying it is safe to receive packages from any area.

"The likelihood of an infected person contaminating commercial goods is low and the risk of catching the virus that causes COVID-19 from a package that has been moved, travelled, and exposed to different conditions and temperature is also low," the WHO said in a Q&A about the virus.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, saidduring a CNN coronavirus town hallthat if the disease were to transfer onto something like mail, it would likely be alow concentration.

Here's what you need to know about sending mail during the coronavirus pandemic:

Coronavirus myths, debunked: A cattle vaccine, bioweapons and a $3,000 test

Joseph Vinetz, a professor ofmedicine at Yale and infectious disease researcher, said that wiping down mail may help with some people's anxiety, but there's no evidence that doing so would be useful to protect against coronavirus.

"Thats just not a viable way of thinking about this epidemic nor am I taking any special precautions myself personally or for family or my friends based on packages," he said. "Whether its a package that comes in the mail delivered by Amazon or a letter from the USPS it's no different than going to the grocery store or going to get take out food."

AmeshAdalja,a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, agreed that the risk is theoretical and minimal.

"I will never disinfect my mail," he said. "And I dont even know how you would disinfect your mail."

Trying to order groceries online?: Here are some tips to do it successfully amid coronavirus

Adalja said there's minimal risk of the virus living on a package for several days, but if someone were to sneeze or cough on a letter before putting it into your mailbox "that's a different story."

Still, he said the same best practices that work during flu season like washing your hands and not touching your face after you open your mail would solve this problem.

How are postal services dealing with coronavirus?

A spokesperson for USPS, which employs more than 630,000 people, said 13 of its employees have tested positive for COVID-19. The company is closely monitoring the situation and is following strategies recommended by the CDC, according to the statement.

FedEx has advised employees who are have flulike symptoms to stay home, and is temporarily suspending signature requirements and regularly disinfecting the equipment used to make deliveries.

Amazon said it is offering flexibility for employees who need to stay home and paid time off for those who are diagnosed with coronavirus.Prime Now, Amazon Fresh, and Whole Foods Market delivery customers also have the option of "unattended delivery" if they want to limit into contact with others.

UPS said in a statement Monday that it istemporarily modifying the procedures its drivers use for residential and business deliveries. In order to minimize contact with recipients,UPS drivers will validate and record the name of the recipient of the package instead ofobtaining a signature. If an adult signature is requested by a shipper, recipients must present identification with proof of age to the driver.

Online shopping?: Amazon prioritizing shipments for medical supplies, household staples during coronavirus crisis

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Coronavirus can live on surfaces for days. But it can't travel through the mail, experts say - USA TODAY

Coronavirus Response Update From White House, Pence Will Be Tested – NPR

March 21, 2020

Vice President Mike Pence on Saturday said he and his wife will be tested for the COVID-19 coronavirus task force. Patrick Semansky/AP hide caption

Vice President Mike Pence on Saturday said he and his wife will be tested for the COVID-19 coronavirus task force.

Updated at 3:40 p.m. ET

Vice President Pence on Saturday announced he and his wife will be tested for the COVID-19 coronavirus, following confirmation that an aide on his staff was diagnosed with the respiratory disease last week.

Pence made the remarks at a news conference following the coronavirus task force meeting at the White House. Earlier in the week the vice president,who leads the task force, told reporters that he has not been tested for the virus because the White House doctor had told him he didn't need to be.

"I'm pleased to report that he is doing well," Pence said of his aide, adding that "he had mild cold-like symptoms for a day and half."

Pence explained that all contact-tracing has been completed and neither he nor the president had direct contact with the aide. Regardless, he said, he would undergo testing later in the day.

He also offered the latest figures on the number of Americans who have been tested: More than 195,000 people have been tested, not including those who were tested in county hospitals or health care labs around the nation. Of those, roughly 19,350 have tested positive for the coronavirus, Pence said.

President Trump, who was first to speak at the news conference at the White House, ran through the list of steps the administration has taken to fight the spread of the virus, including an order for "hundreds of millions" of face masks and other supplies for health care professionals.

"We started with very few masks and now we're making tens of millions of masks," Trump said after blaming previous administrations for the stockpile shortages the country now faces.

He later specified the government has issued a contract for 500 million N95 masks, saying they are "now" available to hospitals and other health care centers.

Part of the demand for supplies is being met by the private sector in "sixth gear," he said, which is heeding the call to make masks, swabs and ventilators by pivoting from their primary industries to making the desperately needed supplies.

Trump praised Hanes, the cotton clothing maker, for retrofitting its manufacturing capabilities to produce masks for medical use. He also noted the shift by alcohol distilleries in Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia toward making hand sanitizer products that will be distributed throughout all 50 states.

He touted his work on legislation to bring economic relief to businesses and workers. He said his administration will give people extra time to file taxes, moving the deadline from April 15 to July 15. Additionally, he said students will not face interest penalties or fines for delaying student loan payments. Homeowners will also get help: Foreclosures and evictions on HUD loans are suspended for the next 60 days.

Trump talked about reaching agreements with Canada and Mexico to halt the entry of what he called the "Chinese virus," a term some have criticized as stigmatizing.

Adm. Brett Giroir, head of the U.S. Public Health Service, is leading the effort to expand testing. He said the agency is distributing equipment from the Strategic National Stockpile to "many states" on a daily basis.

But there's no clear answer to when states would have enough masks or other equipment.

Giroir said the outcry for more tests is not necessarily an issue of supply he said there are tens of thousands of tests out there but of making sure the right facilities are getting the right kind of tests and training.

This week, governors across the country warned that they were seeing shortages of supplies needed for testing, including testing reagents, used to create a chemical reaction to detect the virus, and swabs. On Friday, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said there had been "tremendous progress" in lab testing and dismissed complaints about shortages as "anecdotal."

But groups that represent public health labs, epidemiologists and state health officials said late Friday that there were "widespread shortages of laboratory supplies and reagents."

The Association of Public Health Laboratories said testing should be reserved for health care workers and first responders, older Americans with symptoms and other people at high risk of getting seriously ill from the virus.

The groups said mass testing would quickly deplete supplies, and it instead urged people with mild respiratory illness to stay at home and isolate themselves.

Hospitals have also said health care workers lack masks and other gear needed to protect themselves when treating patients with the virus. Pence said on Friday that there would be an announcement this weekend about what he called "a major acquisition" of masks.

A week ago, Trump and Pence had said there would be a website where people could find out whether they needed to be tested for the virus and direct them to nearby drive-though sites. While a division of Google's parent company has developed a pilot project in San Francisco, no website for national use has materialized.

After the president thanked Google for developing the website last week, the tech company put out a statement saying the life sciences division, Verily, was only in the "early stages" of such a rollout.

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Coronavirus Response Update From White House, Pence Will Be Tested - NPR

Watch How the Coronavirus Spread Across the United States – The New York Times

March 21, 2020

Note: The map shows the known locations of coronavirus cases by county. Circles are sized by the number of people there who have tested positive, which may differ from where they contracted the illness. Some people who traveled overseas were taken for treatment in California, Nebraska and Texas. Puerto Rico and the other U.S. territories are not shown. Sources: State and local health agencies, hospitals and C.D.C. Data as of 11:45 p.m. on Friday, March 20.

It started two months ago, just north of Seattle. A young man who had returned from China tested positive for the coronavirus, the first known case in the United States.

At first, the virus was detected only in a handful of cases, and mostly in those who had traveled outside the United States.

There were lone patients in Arizona, in Massachusetts, in Wisconsin. Married couples in Illinois and California were infected. Groups of Americans evacuated from overseas received treatment in California, Nebraska and Texas.

But in the past three weeks, everything has changed. As testing expanded and the virus spread, cases have been confirmed by the dozens, then by the hundreds and thousands.

By Friday night, more than 17,000 cases of the coronavirus had been detected across all 50 states and Washington, D.C., and more than 200 people had died. New York, California and Washington State have been the hardest hit.

The climb in the number of cases has been rapid, in part because of more testing. This week saw five times more cases than the previous one, more than 6,000 of which were in New York, which has the most cases in the country.

See our maps tracking the coronavirus outbreak around the world.

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Watch How the Coronavirus Spread Across the United States - The New York Times

The Coronaviruss Rampage Through a Suburban Nursing Home – The New York Times

March 21, 2020

KIRKLAND, Wash. Loretta Rapp, 79, was easy to spot as she zipped through the Life Care Center nursing home in her electric wheelchair, dressed in one of her bright muumuus.

It had been hard for her to leave her apartment after she took a bad fall last year. But she was a no-nonsense woman who had raised three children, and she was trying to make the best of things. She went to physical therapy. She devoured detective novels. At the skilled-nursing facility tucked next to a row of Douglas firs in suburban Seattle, she was elected president of the residents council.

Life Care made an effort to keep things fun. There were shopping excursions to the Fred Meyer and lunch trips to Olive Garden, a recent afternoon with cute and cuddly animals. The Honky Tonk Sweethearts, a country group, came in for a show early in February. Ms. Rapp spent her days buzzing the hallways, visiting newcomers and cheering up bed-bound friends.

Then people started getting sick.

Not sick like what happens all the time in a nursing home, the bad flus and septic infections and old bones that will not heal. This was different. In the last few days of February, peoples temperatures started going off the charts. Some could not breathe. Then came word that the coronavirus, the one in China that was all over the news, was right there in Kirkland, population 89,000.

Two Life Care residents died on Feb. 26, though it would be days before tests confirmed they had the coronavirus. And 911 records showed that more people were failing. A 60-year-old man was not responding to liter after liter of oxygen. One patient was fading in and out of consciousness. Another was turning blue.

The staff put the facility on lockdown. The halls emptied. Bedroom doors were closed.

In Room 32W, Ms. Rapp lay straining to breathe as her fever spiked to 103 degrees.

At 1:52 p.m. on Feb. 29, a nurse called 911 to report Ms. Rapps failing health. Shes running a temp, he told the dispatcher. We think she, um

He stopped himself.

This is the place that has the coronavirus.

As confirmed cases of Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, now surge across the country and overturn every facet of normal life, the troubled nursing home in Kirkland looks like a frightening preview of what could lie ahead.

Since the first positive tests at Life Care came back on Feb. 28, 129 people there including 81 residents, about two-thirds of its population have tested positive for the virus, and 35 people have died. Dozens of its workers have received coronavirus diagnoses, suggesting that the centers frantic efforts to sanitize the building, quarantine residents and shield staff members with gowns and visors may have come too late.

This caught them completely off guard, Jim Whitney, the medical services administrator for the nearby Redmond Fire Department, said. They just were not prepared for what was happening. None of us were.

Accounts from emergency responders, public health officials and those who had loved ones at Life Care show a cascading crisis marked by confusion and delays. A federal strike team of doctors and nurses did not arrive until more than a week after the first coronavirus cases were reported. Several crucial days ticked by before the facility was able to get tests for all its residents, making it impossible to tell which patients were already infected.

As a third of the centers workers fell sick or stayed home to avoid infection, the remaining nurses and aides strained to keep up as they worked 18-hour shifts. Patients were left in their beds, some of them scared and lonely.

Some of the health care employees at Life Care also worked at other nursing homes in the Puget Sound region. The ones who had been exposed to the virus at Life Care, investigators for the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found, took it with them to other facilities, opening new pathways of infection.

Tim Killian, a spokesman for Life Care, said that as the crisis unfolded, administrators and nurses were left largely on their own, with little help from the county, state, and federal governments to confront the worst public-health crisis in a century.

Who do you see in the parking lot helping? he said last week. Wheres everyone else? Why is it falling to this one nursing home to solve it for everybody? Why was the entirety of government unwilling to come in and help?

Life Care is part of a Tennessee-based chain of 200 facilities across the country. The facility earned five stars out of five on its federal ratings for overall care last year, and families praised the workers and quality of care.

Many of the homes roughly 120 residents were in their 80s or 90s, suffered from dementia and were there for good. Others were there for rehabilitation after a fall or surgery, and hoped to be on their own again.

The 180 staff members included physicians, physical therapists, nurses and nursing assistants, many of them immigrants, who did the intimate work of bathing residents, getting them dressed and lifting them out of bed to use the bathroom.

In early February, the staff began to get concerned about what appeared to be a rash of seasonal influenza. Nineteen long-term care centers had reported similar infections, King County health officials said.

Some families received phone calls that now look like flashing warning signs.

On Feb. 18, Cami Neidigh said, Life Care called about her 90-year-old mother, Geneva Wood, whom she described as an independent and crotchety and strong Texan who was recovering from a stroke. She had pneumonia, the facility said. The next day, another patient suffering from a respiratory ailment had been sent to a hospital Life Cares first evacuation.

On Feb. 20, 86-year-old Chuck Sedlacek, who was recovering from a fall that had broken his ankle, was moved into a shared room at Life Care with a man suffering from what had been diagnosed as pneumonia.

Ms. Wood and Mr. Sedlacek later tested positive for the coronavirus.

The Mardi Gras party went ahead on Feb. 26 under purple and gold ribbons garlanding the entertainment room. Residents snacked on king cake and sausage and rice, clapping and singing to the tunes of a visiting Gatsby Jazz band.

In hindsight, once we heard the news about what was there, we thought that maybe there shouldnt have been a party, said Patricia McCauley, 79, who had visited, with her husband, more than half a dozen times in the previous two weeks to see a friend who subsequently tested positive for the coronavirus and died.

Around that time, Lt. Dick Hughes of the Kirkland Fire Department began to notice a troubling pattern in the 911 calls from Life Care: patient after patient suddenly overwhelmed by fever and cough. The center had made seven 911 calls in January. From Feb. 1 through March 5, there were 33.

We had one. Then we had another one, then we had another one, Mr. Hughes said. Patients were falling ill, and deteriorating with troubling speed. The nurses kept saying, They were not like this two hours ago.

Neither the paramedic crews nor the sick residents had been wearing masks or other protection. As they loaded up patient after patient, Lieutenant Hughes thought to himself: This is way too many.

The nursing home started to discourage visitors, but it did not forbid them, and family members said they did not think anything was seriously wrong.

I didnt see anything, said Amy Jou, who visited on Feb. 28 to do her 93-year-old mothers laundry.

Ms. Neidigh came that same morning to bring her mother coffee and discuss plans for moving her back into her own apartment. She said the staff warned her about what it still thought was a respiratory outbreak, and urged her to wear a mask. She slipped one on, but since several staff members were not wearing protection, she said, she figured there was little to worry about.

Mr. Killian, the spokesman, said that while some administrators or reception staff may not have been wearing protection at that point, the workers in contact with patients were all in masks. Of course we were geared up, he said. Of course we were.

The first coronavirus case would be confirmed later that night.

Two days later, on March 1, the first death of a Life Care resident was announced. It was described in the terse language of a government news release as a male in his 70s with underlying health conditions. Nearly every day since has brought news of more.

As news crews swarmed outside, residents were tucked behind closed doors and signs warning about droplet precautions were taped onto the walls.

The workers, you could see they were stressed and worried, said Curtis Luterman, who managed to move his mother out of Life Care. Worried about getting sick. Worried about if this place is going to close. Worried about the people they were taking care of.

A staff members voice was shaky as she called 911 in early March to help a 63-year-old man who was struggling to breathe.

Is the patient awake right now? the dispatcher asked.

Hes somewhat conscious. Hes turning blue. Hes having a hard time breathing.

The dispatcher asked whether the man had traveled to Asia, Iran or Italy in the last 14 days. No, said the caller, but she pointed out that the nursing home had already had two coronavirus cases.

OK, sure. So what were going to ask you to do is we are going to ask you if its possible to wheel him outside and place a mask on him? the dispatcher asked.

Ooh. OK. Ill try.

A nursing assistant who worked at the facility until she asked for leave during the first week of March said the work grew harder as the staff dwindled.

The woman, who spoke on condition of anonymity because Life Care did not give her permission to describe what she experienced inside, said it was agony to see stricken residents fitted with face masks and wheeled out to meet arriving ambulances, one after another. When she came home at the end of each shift, her husband met her at the front door and tossed her uniform into a garbage bag to launder.

It was scary, she said. I didnt want to be contaminated.

Time dragged on. People anxious to connect with parents they could no longer be in the same room with pulled up lawn chairs outside their bedroom windows. They shouted I love you into their cellphones as masked, gowned workers held a telephone up to their parents ears on the other side of the glass.

When Charlie Campbell came to the window to visit his 89-year-old father, Eugene, who has dementia and later tested positive for the virus, a staff member helped his father into a wheelchair and handed him his room phone.

We talked about the food, my mom and when he might be able to go back to living with her, Mr. Campbell said.

Some had to search for answers from a distance as their relatives deteriorated.

Carolyn Lockleys 65-year-old sister, Renee Gibbs, seemed incoherent and could barely remember what she had eaten for lunch when Ms. Lockley called her from her home outside of Philadelphia on March 2.

Ms. Gibbs, a longtime Life Care resident who was paralyzed because of multiple sclerosis, had received a pneumonia diagnosis weeks earlier. As they talked that afternoon, Ms. Lockley could hear her sisters roommate coughing in the background. Because there were not enough tests to go around, her sister still had not been tested for the coronavirus, but her sister feared she might have it. A nurse reported that her blood pressure was rising.

She promised to call with any updates but did not. When Ms. Lockley tried to get through to the center later, the phone rang and rang. She hung up and called 911.

I want them to take her to a hospital, she told the 911 dispatcher, her voice shaking. When I talked to her earlier today she was incoherent. Several people at the facility had already died, she told her.

I understand that, the dispatcher replied.

I am getting scared, Ms. Lockley said.

A team drove out from the Fire Department that evening, but the responders said Ms. Gibbs had told them she felt fine and did not want to go to a hospital.

Hours later, around 4 a.m., Ms. Gibbs developed a fever and was taken to the EvergreenHealth medical center, where she learned she had the coronavirus. She died five days later.

After her fall, Ms. Rapp, who had worked in the office of an elementary school, had struggled with moving into a nursing home. She was partial to the senior-living complex she had shared with her husband of more than 50 years before his death. But she had been doing better lately. Her room was decorated with family photos, and she made friends. When a new resident arrived, she would assure them with friendly bluntness: Dont worry, they cant kick you out.

Three times a day, she would show up at the bedside of Susan Hailey, 76, who had moved into Life Care for rehabilitation after a knee replacement, but had shattered her ankle in a fall and could no longer get out of bed. Ms. Rapp would chat with Ms. Haileys daughters and then buzz away in her wheelchair.

She loved to joke, said Ms. Hailey, who tested positive for the virus and is still at Life Care. If there were too many people in my room, shed leave. She didnt want to interrupt us. Ms. Hailey would tell her, Oh Loretta, youre not.

On Feb. 29, Ms. Rapp was transported to an isolated intensive-care room at the hospital. When she tested positive for the coronavirus, she ruefully called it the icing on the cake.

She was in such pain. On a conference call with her son and her doctor, days before she died on March 8, Ms. Rapp decided that she only wanted comfort care from there till the end.

Her son, Ken Rapp, said he and his mother spoke for a while longer on that final call; they exchanged I love yous, and he told her that he wished the family could be there with her. Eventually, they had to say goodbye.

Its the weirdest thing, Mr. Rapp said. Sitting there on the phone, hitting that red button and knowing youll never talk to her again.

But Mr. Rapp said his mother made it clear they should not try to come: She wouldnt wish this on anyone. Dont, she told him.

Mike Baker contributed reporting from Seattle and Matt Richtel from San Francisco. Susan Beachy, Jack Begg and Sheelagh McNeill contributed research.

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The Coronaviruss Rampage Through a Suburban Nursing Home - The New York Times

America Will Save America from the Coronavirus – The New York Times

March 21, 2020

After arguing for the importance of the care economy for years, I was delighted to see, after only one day of kids staying home, three different men tweet versions of the following: First day of home schooling and I now firmly believe that teachers should be paid like C.E.O.s. Indeed they should, and after this crisis subsides, we may finally be able to build support for higher teacher pay and prestige.

All these transitions take money, of course, and above all the basic security that allows people to see opportunity rather than devastation, to feel hope rather than fear. We must mitigate the rising panic as we contemplate the possibility that millions of Americans will simply not have a paycheck as local economies shut down.

Here, too, we are seeing a fast forward, to a rudimentary Universal Basic Income. Congress is considering various versions of that, including one proposal that would provide initial direct cash payments of $2,000 per person for every adult and child in families making up to $180,000, beginning in April.

Once again, however, we dont have to wait for Washington. The nonprofit group Give Directly, which has been testing universal basic income in Kenya, is raising money to provide $1,000 to families in need across the United States. The group is working with Propel, a company that made an app for managing food stamp benefits, to identify families in the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, typically single mothers. Payments will be made through debit cards that can be loaded remotely, or by setting recipients up with online wallets. Communities can adapt versions of this system, creating an informal tax that could become a formal one.

Finally, all of this innovation will require universal access to fast, affordable broadband. Our government has an obligation to provide public education; it must now provide the broadband to make that education possible. It can certainly be done, but the government will have to better regulate private internet service providers and move to more accountable municipally owned internet service utilities, like the one that offers the nations fastest broadband, in Chattanooga, Tenn.

The future is here, whether we like it or not. Although a future dependent on the current federal government looks bleak, we can vote to change that in November. Right now, we can follow the lead of local and regional leaders and step up ourselves. Through the virus, we are rediscovering the dark side of the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.s famous inescapable network of mutuality, tied in a single garment of destiny. But we can also rediscover what is possible and what we are capable of as a nation. We can use this crisis to create a better America.

Anne-Marie Slaughter, a former director of policy planning for the State Department, is the chief executive of New America.

The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. Wed like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And heres our email: letters@nytimes.com.

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America Will Save America from the Coronavirus - The New York Times

In Italy, Coronavirus Takes a Higher Toll on Men – The New York Times

March 21, 2020

The coronavirus is striking, and felling, more Italian men than women, and some experts are warning that being male may be a risk factor for the illness, just as older age is.

The Italian trend mirrors one seen in China, where men were more likely than women to die of Covid-19.

In Italy, more men than women have been infected, and a higher proportion of infected men have died. Some 8 percent of male patients died, compared with 5 percent of female patients, according to a Higher Health Institute of Rome analysis of 25,058 cases.

Being male is as much a risk factor for the coronavirus as being old, said Sabra Klein, a scientist who studies sex difference in viral infections at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. People need to be aware that there is this pattern. Just like being old means youre at higher risk, so does being male. Its a risk factor.

She said the vulnerability could be biological or behavioral. Women have more robust immune systems, Dr. Klein said. And more men smoke in higher numbers, and they are less likely to wash their hands, studies show.

We dont always understand why something is a risk factor, and were probably not going to be able to pinpoint one thing, Dr. Klein said. But its remarkable that were seeing this across such socially and culturally distinct countries as Italy and China. More needs to be made of this fact.

On Friday, Dr. Deborah Birx, the coronavirus response coordinator for the White House, mentioned the gender disparity in deaths in Italy, but said the gender gap was twice as high in men at all ages. In fact, the report mentioned no deaths in people under 30 and very few deaths among men and women in their 40s and 50s. The heightened risk to men becomes apparent in their 50s, with the gender gap tapering off somewhat only at 90, probably because there are fewer men in this age group.

Over all, men represented 58 percent of 25,058 coronavirus cases in Italy, and 70 percent of the 1,697 deaths described in the report.

In China, the death rate for men was 2.8 percent, compared to 1.7 percent for women, according to the largest analysis of cases by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

Men also were disproportionately affected during the SARS and MERS outbreaks, which were caused by coronaviruses. More women than men were infected by SARS in Hong Kong in 2003, but the death rate among men was 50 percent higher, according to a study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.

Some 32 percent of men infected with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome died, compared with 25.8 percent of women. Young adult men also died at higher rates than female peers during the influenza epidemic of 1918.

Women appear to have stronger immune systems than men. The female sex hormone estrogen appears to play a role in immunity, as does the X chromosome, which contains immune-related genes. Women carry two X chromosomes; men only one.

But women also develop more autoimmune diseases such as lupus and rheumatoid arthritis, in which the immune system attacks the bodys own organs and tissues.

Other health and behavioral factors may also be contributing to mens vulnerability. Men develop cardiovascular disease and hypertension at younger ages than women, and both of these conditions increase the potential for severe disease, said Kathryn Sandberg, director of the Center for the Study of Sex Differences in Health, Aging and Disease at Georgetown University.

Men also smoke at higher rates than women. In China, more than half of all men smoke, compared with less than 3 percent of women; in Italy nearly 30 percent of men smoke, compared with 19 percent of women. In the United States, the smoking gap is smaller, with 17.5 percent of men smoking compared with 13.5 percent of women.

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In Italy, Coronavirus Takes a Higher Toll on Men - The New York Times

Why were not overreacting to the coronavirus pandemic, in one chart – Vox.com

March 21, 2020

The national mobilization against the coronavirus is now in full swing. Schools and workplaces nationwide have shuttered. The federal government has recommended that people not gather in groups of 10 or more. Social distancing and self-isolation are now becoming part of the fabric of daily American life.

This has all sparked a serious question among many people: Are we overreacting? Its not just a question being asked by partiers and bar-goers it has also been asked in the New York Times. A widely circulated article by Stanfords John Ioannidis suggests that the stepped-up US response is a fiasco in the making thats being made without enough data.

To someone who hasnt been following the pandemics spread closely, the drastic measures indeed might seem like an overreaction. After all, around 13,000 cases and 200 deaths as of Thursday in a country of 330 million doesnt seem that bad. Is it really worth shutting down the economy, a measure that will of course have horrific costs of its own, for such a small toll?

But the numbers mask whats really causing experts to worry: The coronaviruss trajectory is putting us on a course of many, many more cases and many, many more deaths unless we do something drastic.

In other words, theres a simple answer to the question: No, were not overreacting.

To explain why were not overreacting, we need to look to the experience of another country going through the coronavirus crisis: Italy. Heres a chart comparing the countrys cases to the USs.

A couple of weeks ago, Italy was much like us, with 107 deaths on March 4. But things were already rapidly getting worse; by March 10, more than 600 people were dead, and today more than 3,400 are. That makes Italy the epicenter of coronavirus fatalities in the world, with more deaths than even China, where the outbreak started. Hospitals have been pushed to the breaking point, with doctors and nurses without adequate protective equipment collapsing at work and other doctors reporting that patients wont all get lifesaving care because there isnt enough of it to go around.

Whats scary about Italys experience is that Italy wasnt exactly passive in its response to the virus. The country did act, quarantining a dozen towns in northern regions on February 23, urging the public to engage in social distancing, and ordering the closure of all schools nationwide on March 4.

But case numbers kept growing. On March 8, Italy locked down the north of the country, and on March 9 it extended the lockdown to the whole country. Now, it looks like these extreme efforts might have slowed the rate of growth of cases. On March 15, there were 3,590 new cases. On March 16, 3,233. On the 17th, 3,526. And on the 18th, 4,207. Thats not exponential growth, suggesting the lockdown really did help but those still arent good numbers, especially when Italys hospitals are already overwhelmed.

Italy has been devastated by the virus because the action it took was just a little too moderate, a little too restrained, and a little too slow. The country took measures that were substantial and costly but nonetheless insufficient to actually bring the epidemic to a halt. (This was the message hammered home in a recent project where Italians sent video messages to themselves 10 days ago.)

Theres some reason to think we wont be hit as hard as Italy. Italys population is older than ours, and older people are hit hardest by the virus. Smoking might affect death tolls, too, and smoking is more common in Europe than in the US. Because the United States is bigger, US reported cases per capita are a little further behind Italys than the raw confirmed case numbers are. And comparing confirmed cases across countries is difficult anyway, because most countries are undertesting and its hard to be sure who is undertesting more.

But the bottom line remains that theres no real reason to think measures that didnt suffice in Italy will suffice here.

The lesson from Italy isnt just that you have to act before your hospitals are overwhelmed. Its that you have to take steps that appear in the moment to be an exceptional overreaction because by the time it looks like the steps youre taking are appropriate, it will have been too late.

Now, when public health experts say the US is on Italys trajectory, what exactly does that mean?

It means that the US and most European countries are seeing early coronavirus growth numbers that look like the ones from Italy. Our confirmed cases are increasing at about the rate theirs did. That gives us every reason to think our health systems will eventually be overwhelmed like theirs were, unless we take strong measures sooner than they did.

So far, weve taken some strong measures which is good. But its not clear that were acting that much faster than Italy did and remember, Italy wasnt fast enough.

The frightening chart above compares the USs reactions to Italys. It shows confirmed case numbers in Italy and in the US, starting on the day when each country passed 100 confirmed cases. It shows the points at which Italy took various precautionary measures. To break away from Italys trajectory, we need to take measures that are stronger than the ones it took, or take measures sooner along the trajectory than it did.

The US passed the 13,000 confirmed case mark on Thursday. Italy locked down the northern half of the country on the day it reached 13,000 cases and extended the lockdown to the southern half one day later.

To be sure, there are a lot of problems with using confirmed case data for these trajectory estimates. Italy is likely substantially undertesting, as is the US. Confirmed cases are a poor reflection of overall cases. Sometimes, growth in confirmed cases is due to increases in testing capacity, not increases in the viruss spread.

But even with those caveats, confirmed case data isnt worthless. They lag behind reality, Caitlin Rivers, a senior associate at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told me on Monday, but theyre still our best window into what is going on.

And looking through that window, the picture looks bleak for the US. Taking the drastic steps some parts of the country are now taking, like the California stay-at-home order, gives us a chance not a guarantee, to be clear to veer from the Italian trajectory. (This online tool offers state-by-state projections of hospitalizations over time depending on which interventions a state takes.)

In a press conference on March 16, the National Institutes of Healths Dr. Anthony Fauci, who has played a major role in leading the US response, explained to Americans why the strong measures the government was taking were not an overreaction.

Some will look and say, well, maybe weve gone a little bit too far, he said. The thing that I want to reemphasize, and Ill say it over and over again, when youre dealing with an emerging infectious diseases outbreak, you are always behind where you think you are if you think that today reflects where you really are.

Lets say that today we found 1,000 new Covid-19 cases. Keep in mind that the virus has a two- to 10-day incubation period. In the past week or so, each of those people was exposed to the virus. Then they got sick. Then they got sick enough to seek medical attention, which can take a few more days. Then they got a test. Then the test took a day or more to return positive results (some people are reporting longer waits than that for results, while some newly designed tests might be able to get results faster).

Each of those positive tests, then, reflects an infection up to two weeks ago. The situation has already worsened for the two weeks or so since those new cases were infected. For much of that time, those 1,000 people have been out and about in the world, potentially infecting others. In a population not taking strong social distancing measures, it is estimated that on average they will have infected two or three others. Some of those newly infected will themselves have started infecting others.

Italy took strong measures. Its mistake was not that it didnt react at all its that it kept being a little bit behind the ball. Each measure was appropriate to the situation the Italians observed. But the real situation was always much worse. So things kept worsening until they pulled out all the stops with a countrywide lockdown.

It will always seem that the best way to address [the virus] would be to be doing something that looks like it might be an overreaction, Fauci said. It isnt an overreaction. Its reaction we feel is commensurate [with what] is actually going on in reality.

To break away from Italys trajectory, we have to respond with stronger measures than Italy. We have to respond in ways that feel like an overreaction. In the past few days, weve seen the first US steps that are stronger than Italys responses at a similar point in the outbreak steps like the Bay Areas shelter-in-place order, the follow-up extending it to all of California, New Yorks similar order Friday, and state orders shutting down restaurants and bars. Thats what it will take to give ourselves a chance at a different curve.

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Why were not overreacting to the coronavirus pandemic, in one chart - Vox.com

What I Learned About Coronavirus From Binge-watching 10 Hours of Virus Movies – POLITICO

March 21, 2020

While I didnt emerge as a postdoc epidemiologist, the lessons I took away, hidden in plain sight all these years, would be valuable to any member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force. Its all there, from Contagions advocacy for social distancing to Outbreaks and Hot Zones depictions of how interagency squabbling can slow responses. Even the epigraph of Outbreak, from the Nobel laureate and bacteriologist Joshua Lederberg, should have focused us on the gravity of a pandemic earlier: The single biggest threat to mans continued dominance on the planet is the virus.

But I also noticed something else: These films have perhaps numbed us to those very viruses that threaten us mostthe viruses that do not have a giant fatality rate or change our physical appearance. In Outbreak, Dustin Hoffmans Col. Sam Daniels, a virologist with the United States Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, contends with Motaba, a fever-inducing virus that kills 100 percent of its patients in two to three days. In The Hot Zone, Ebola leaves its patients with a rash and kills them quickly. In Contagion, MEV-1 has a mortality rate around 20 percent. If Motaba had hit the U.S. the government would have been faster to quarantine cities and issue shelter-in-place orders, shutting down schools and non-essential businesses. Had Ebola been spreading around Indianapolis, I bet those revelers across the street would have stayed at home. But my neighbors seemed blind to COVID-19, which is more insidious and subtly dangerous than the diseases from the movies. Its mortality rate is in the single digits low enough so many think they have little to fearbut it is proving just as disabling to the economy and our way of life, if not more, than much more deadly outbreaks, which can be contained faster.

Earlier this week, I asked Dr. Ian Lipkin, a Columbia University epidemiologist, why all of these movies hadnt moved politicians and voters to take viral epidemics more seriously. I dont think movies change the way people feel about things, he told me, adding that he was working with the writer of Contagion, Scott Z. Burns, on a public awareness campaign ad on the novel coronavirus.

The fact that the United States has dodged the bullet with all of the latest infectious diseases, my perception of our government is that unless its screaming hot in the headlines, nothing will be done, says Tracey McNamara, a technical consultant on Contagion and a veterinary medicine professor at Western University of Health Services, told me.

Contagion, hints at our lackadaisical approach to any virus that isnt produced in a Hollywood studio: Theres a scene in which a reporter asks Centers of Disease Control and Prevention Administrator Dr. Ellis Cheever, played by Laurence Fishburne, whether the government is overreacting to a virus that would claim 26 million lives in 29 days.

Dr. Cheever, are you concerned that the CDC faces a credibility issue here, after the perceived overreaction to H1N1? the reporter asks.

Id rather the news story be that we overreacted than that many people lost their lives because we didnt do enough, Cheever replies.

Set pieces and dramatic press conference scenes like this one seemed a critical part of any disaster movie. Now, we see them almost everyday when the coronavirus task force briefs the nation. For decades, these films have thrilled theatergoers with an invisible enemy, the stark reality of an apocalyptic human-versus-nature, us-versus-it conflict. But the actual conflict in all of these films is actually something different: Its us versus the bureaucracy. These are not so much films about disasters as they are films about government.

Contagion is such a compelling filmlife is unfolding very much like the movie, says McNamara, who discovered West Nile Virus in the summer of 1999 while working as the chief pathologist at the Bronx Zoo, when crows started falling from the sky and into exhibits that August. The speed with which it spread. How it spread.

Turns out, Hollywood has been offering Washington clues about how a pandemic might transpire for decadesand what the government should do to fight it. Here are just a few:

Much of Outbreak revolves around the efforts of the protagonist (Col. Sam Daniels, played by Dustin Hoffman) to convince his boss, Brigadier General William Ford (played by Morgan Freeman) that the country faces a real threat from the fictional Motaba virus. Daniels spends much of the film battling with Army General Donald McClintock, played by Donald Sutherland, to get the word out about the dangers of the virus.

After Daniels ex-wife, CDC staffer Dr. Roberta Robby Keoughplayed by Rene Russotreats a dying and infected patient, she laments not getting a CDC advisory out about the virus faster. The CDC staffers efforts were blocked by her superiors. I shouldve forced the alert, the doctor says, explaining Motabas deadly effects. Christ, Sam. I opened this guy up, she tells her ex. Looked like a bomb went off inside. His pancreas, liver, kidney, spleenall the organs were liquified. Christ, I shouldve forced the alert.

In Contagion, weeks into the outbreak of MEV-1, Dr. Sanjay Gupta (played by himself) asks CDC Administrator Cheever how many people have died from the disease during a cable television appearance. The answer, Cheever admits, was very difficult to know exact numbers because reporting varied by state. There are 50 different states in this country, which means there are 50 different health departments. Followed by 50 different protocols.

And in the final episode of The Hot Zone, a dispute between an Ebola researcher and the head of the CDC almost derails efforts to get to the bottom of the Reston, Virginia, Ebola outbreak.

The guy hates my guts, Walter said of the CDC official Trevor Rhodes (James DArcy). Im never going to convince him to help.

You need to bury whatever happened between you two, Carter. You got no choice.

The messages of all these filmsinfighting and turf battles make things worsefelt apt for the ongoing feud between Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar and Seema Verma, administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which is a branch of HHS that operates independently. A series of incidents over the past 120 days suggest basic communication and coordination between CMS and HHS is lacking, thereby jeopardizing HHS mission and undermining public trust, HHS chief information officer Jose Arrieta wrote a recent memo.

The latest incident? On February 23, HHS email system crashed, causing vital messages about the emergency coronavirus funding package to be delayed for up to 11 hours. The cause: Vermas Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services had failed to brief HHS leaders about a test that would send thousands of messages through the system. The outage slowed the administrations response to the deadly outbreak.

In the six-part National Geographic mini-series The Hot Zone, based on the 1994 non-fiction book by Richard Preston, Wade Carter, a fictionalized reclusive Ebola expert who studied the virus in the field, is frustrated that more senior officials arent taking the threat of Ebola on American soil more seriously. Carter tells Army Col. Nancy Jaax (played by Julianna Margulies), a veterinarian who helped contain Ebola-infected monkeys from the Philippines: Did I want this? Never. Now its here. Would it be good for the Oval Office to be pissing its pants about this now? You bet.

But by the end of the series, after the scientists ultimately contained an Ebola outbreak in Reston, Virginia, there seems to be little appetite from public policymakers to take the threat of an epidemic seriously. We see a flyover shot of Capitol Hill. In a nameless committee room, the deputy secretary of the National Institutes of Health asks Jaax: So no one died?

Thats correct, Mr. Chairman, Jaax says. But four people tested positive for the Ebola virus.

And 172 people were tested and came up negative, the deputy secretary responded, unperturbed.

The warning was clear: When scientists are worried, people should listen. And yet, not more than a week ago, President Donald Trump and some Republican members of Congress, along with conservative television hosts, were saying that journalists and Democrats were overplaying the threat of the coronavirus. Now some of those pols who thought it was no big deal are getting tested for COVID-19 themselves.

In The Hot Zone, Jaaxs husband, Noah Emmerichs Lt. Col. Jerry Jaax, makes a plea: Its no secret the CDC needs more funding for research and developmentmeaning that the CDC was caught somewhat flat-footed by the outbreak in Reston.

But back in real life, just last week, even as coronavirus was spreading in the United States, the acting director of the Office of Management and Budget Russ Vought defended the Trump administrations proposed $35 million cut to the Infectious Diseases Rapid Response Reserve Fund, designed for use by the CDC.

Rep. Matt Cartwright, the Democratic member from Pennsylvania, bristled at the cuts in a hearing with Vought. The question is today, as we sit here and we know about coronavirus and the impact its taking on the people of the world and the economies of the world and the stock market and everything, as you sit here today, are you ready to take that back?

In none of the virus movies I watched do we see the U.S. president. He or she is often one of the least important characters. In Contagion, hes moved underground. In Outbreak, we only see the chief of staff, talking White House officials through the ethics of bombing a California town, executing all of its citizens in order to contain Mataba. Instead, the most important charactersthe ones who do the talkingare the public health officials, virologists, researchers and frontline healthcare workers. In the movies, scientists always offer a clear explanation and as much information as they have to concerned citizens. Politicians would only get in the way.

President Donald Trump didnt get the memo. His statements about coronavirus have been perplexing and counterproductive. He said we have it under control. He compared it to the flu. He told people with the virus to go to work. He suggested the virus would disappear. Then he declared a national emergency.

In contrast, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Deborah Birx, a global health official at the State Department who is now White House coronavirus response coordinator, are lucid, calm presenters of informationperhaps the administrations most credible spokespeople. If this were a Hollywood movie, those two would have been doing most of the talking from the beginning.

Bryan Cranston, who plays Rear Admiral Lyle Haggerty in Contagion, alludes to a congressman who is at risk of infecting his fellow members of Congress with MEV-1. Theres a sick congressman from Illinois in D.C., Haggerty says. He was in Chicago over the holiday. They are using the pod to fly him home, and then they are closing Midway and OHare. The governor there is calling out the national guard. They are setting up roadblocks. They are shutting down the board of trade, public transportation. Even the Teamsters are pulling their drivers off the road.

Any policymaker who watched that scene and connected the dots wouldnt have been able to escape the realization that in the event of a pandemic, it would be important for Congress to have a way of working remotely. This week, several representatives and senators directed some staffers to work from home. Still, members of Congress, many of whom are at risk of higher mortality rates given their average age57.8 years in the House and 61.8 years in the Senate dont have an established way to conduct their business remotely.

The Wolfgang Petersen film Outbreak is perhaps the least subtle of the group of films. A lab clinician infected with Motaba sees a movie with his girlfriend. As a result, the entire town of Cedar Creek, Californiapopulation 2,600is nearly bombed with the the most powerful non-nuclear weapon in our arsenal by the U.S. government to contain the spread of the virus.

When Daniels and Keough survey the infected at a makeshift hospital in Cedar Creek, Keough remarks: So manyso fast.

Apparently they all gathered at a movie theater, Daniels replies.

In Contagion, the CDC administrator urges social distancing and not shaking hands as the best advice for controlling the spread of MEV-1. We see empty gyms and open-floor plan offices. Right now, our best defense has been social distancing, Fishburnes Cheever, the CDC director, tells Dr. Sanjay Gutpa in a cable television studio. No handshaking. Staying home when you are sick. Washing your hands frequently.

The idea for the scene came from Lipkin, the Columbia University epidemiologist who told the films writer, Scott Z. Burns, that he would serve as a technical adviser on the movie if he agreed to make it as scientifically accurate a film as possible.

In the films emotional denouement, Cheever visits the home of one the CDCs janitors to deliver a vaccine, where he explains to the janitors son the origins of the handshake. (The scene was designed to disclose the history of the handshake, Lipkin told me in an interview earlier this week.)

Do you know where this comes from? Shaking hands? he asks the boy, after delivering the vaccine by pushing a swab up his nostril. It was a way of showing a stranger you werent carrying a weapon in the old days.

These days, we are all presumed to be armed and dangerous.

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