Category: Corona Virus

LONDON Boris Johnsons war with the coronavirus has turned personal. When the prime minister was admitted to intensive care with severe symptoms on Monday night, it was a reminder to Britons that like it or not, we are all in this together.

The virus that has changed daily life across the world knows no bounds when it comes to privilege, class or high office. A leader who has repeatedly defied the laws of political gravity finds himself struck down by the very virus he had put his government on a war footing to beat.

Mr. Johnsons hospital stay comes after a week of damaging headlines over his governments handling of the outbreak and rumors of his declining health. Keen to dispel claims made earlier this year that he was a part-time prime minister, Mr. Johnson had insisted on continuing to work despite his symptoms, which included a persistent fever. Those around him now regret that decision.

Although Mr. Johnsons Conservative Party has enjoyed its best poll ratings in government since Margaret Thatcher during the Falklands War, there has been criticism of the prime ministers handling of the pandemic from his visible reluctance to impose social-distancing measures to his at times jovial approach to news conferences.

But as Mr. Johnsons hospital admission brings the national crisis to a head, such criticism has been drowned out by support. Politicians, commentators and celebrities across the spectrum have put partisanship aside to rally around the beleaguered prime minister. Social media is flooded with well wishes; theres a campaign for a moment of national applause a community act reserved until now for hospital staffs and other key workers putting their safety on the line to fight the pandemic.

So the political dynamics seem to have changed, at least for now. But the challenge ahead for the government has only increased in scale.

Aides have gone from talking down the severity of the prime ministers illness to worrying out loud over what it means for the days, weeks and months ahead. Even if Mr. Johnson makes a fast recovery, he will need time out to convalesce. At a time of national crisis, the figure supposed to lead the country is out of action.

Mr. Johnsons temporary replacement is his de facto deputy, First Secretary of State Dominic Raab. Mr. Raab was given the title when Mr. Johnson became prime minister and believed the biggest challenge of the day was Brexit. The idea was that the appointment of Mr. Raab, a committed Brexiteer, would send a clear message that even if something happened to the prime minister, his Brexit plan could not be watered down.

Mr. Raabs suitability for leading the country through a time of national crisis is another matter. While the prime minister and his team trust him more than Mr. Johnson does most senior cabinet ministers, Mr. Raab is a relative unknown to the public and is seen to lack warmth as a speaker.

But even if Mr. Raab defies his critics, there are limits to how much a high-performing de facto deputy can achieve. The British system is not built for a situation in which its leader is absent for a prolonged period of time let alone during a national crisis. There are not clear guidelines for who takes power if the prime minister is incapacitated. And Mr. Raab is not carrying out all of Mr. Johnsons duties: He is not working from 10 Downing Street, he will not meet with the queen, and he does not have the power to fire or hire members of the cabinet.

Since Mr. Johnson became prime minister, power has been broadly balanced among the four ministers tasked with heading the coronavirus subcommittees: Mr. Raab, Chancellor Rishi Sunak, Health Secretary Matt Hancock and the chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Michael Gove. There have been repeated reports of egos clashing behind the scenes over who leads the public response, competing briefs and turf wars. Now they must put their differences aside and find a way to work their competing interests into a joint plan.

The government has been reluctant to even discuss what an exit strategy from the lockdown might look like, on the grounds that it could lead people to relax social distancing. In truth, its also because there are rival views in government on what should happen: Some ministers think the lockdown must be eased in the coming weeks to salvage the economy, while others see that as a damaging gamble on peoples lives.

But this is the kind of decision that should rest only with an elected prime minister. Those sending Mr. Johnson well wishes are doing so not only for his own well-being but also for the sake of the country. The best hope is that he makes as speedy a recovery as possible.

Mr. Raab used Tuesdays government news conference to tell the public that he believes Mr. Johnson will be back at the helm leading us through the crisis in short order. But if that is not possible, serious thinking needs to be done on how major policy decisions should be made and by whom. The current arrangement is not suited to a prolonged absence of the prime minister.

Katy Balls (@katyballs) is the deputy political editor of The Spectator.

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Boris Johnson vs. the Coronavirus - The New York Times

Celebrities and politicians with large social media followings are proving to be key distributors of disinformation relating to coronavirus, according to a study that suggests the factcheckers and mainstream news outlets are struggling to compete with the reach of influencers.

The actor Woody Harrelson and the singer MIA have faced criticism after sharing baseless claims about the supposed connection of 5G to the pandemic, while comments by the likes of the Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro, playing down the scale of the crisis in the face of scientific evidence have attracted criticism in recent days.

What is Covid-19?

It is caused by a member of the coronavirus family that has never been encountered before. Like other coronaviruses, it has come from animals. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared it a pandemic.

What are the symptoms this coronavirus causes?

According to the WHO, the most common symptoms of Covid-19 are fever, tiredness and a dry cough. Some patients may also have a runny nose, sore throat, nasal congestion and aches and pains or diarrhoea. Some people report losing their sense of taste and/or smell. About 80% of people who get Covid-19 experience a mild case about as serious as a regular cold and recover without needing any special treatment.

About one in six people, the WHO says, become seriously ill. The elderly and people with underlying medical problems like high blood pressure, heart problems or diabetes, or chronic respiratory conditions, are at a greater risk of serious illness from Covid-19.

In the UK, the National health Service (NHS) has identified the specific symptoms to look for as experiencing either:

As this is viral pneumonia, antibiotics are of no use. The antiviral drugs we have against flu will not work, and there is currently no vaccine. Recovery depends on the strength of the immune system.

Should I go to the doctor if I have a cough?

Medical advice varies around the world - with many countries imposing travel bans and lockdowns to try and prevent the spread of the virus. In many place people are being told to stay at home rather than visit a doctor of hospital in person. Check with your local authorities.

In the UK, NHS advice is that anyone with symptoms should stay at home for at least 7 days. If you live with other people, they should stay at home for at least 14 days, to avoid spreading the infection outside the home.

How many people have been affected?

Chinas national health commission confirmed human-to-human transmission in January. As of 6 April, more than 1.25m people have been infected in more than 180 countries, according to the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering.

There have been over 69,500 deaths globally. Just over 3,200 of those deaths have occurred in mainland China. Italy has been worst affected, with over 15,800 fatalities, and there have been over 12,600 deaths in Spain. The US now has more confirmed cases than any other country - more than 335,000. Many of those who have died had underlying health conditions, which the coronavirus complicated.

More than 264,000 people are recorded as having recovered from the coronavirus.

Research by Oxfords Reuters Institute for the study of journalism found that while politicians, celebrities and other prominent public figures were responsible for producing or spreading 20% of false claims about coronavirus, their posts accounted for 69% of total social media engagement.

The issue has gained extra prominence as Britons began vandalising mobile phone masts in recent days amid wildly sharing baseless claims linking the virus to 5G.

Social media companies were summoned to a meeting with the culture secretary, Oliver Dowden, on Wednesday afternoon to explain what they are doing to reduce the harm caused by false health claims about coronavirus on their platforms, with WhatsApp and YouTube having made tentative steps in recent days to reduce the impact.

There is growing concern that online disinformation could be having real world health impacts. Research by Dr Daniel Allington, senior lecturer in social and cultural artificial intelligence at Kings College London, suggested there was a statistically notable link between people who believed false claims about the coronavirus and people who were willing to flout the governments social distancing guidelines.

His findings, based on a experimental study conducted in coordination with the Centre for Countering Digital Hate, found that people who said they believed coronavirus was connected to 5G mobile phone masts are less likely to be staying indoors, washing their hands regularly or respecting physical distancing.

While social media platforms have moved faster than in the past to flag disinformation about coronavirus on public groups, prominent actors and entertainers with millions of followers on Twitter and Instagram have helped fan the flames of misinformation, often reaching vastly more people than mainstream news outlets.

This small amount of people have a wide reach for the content that they are spreading, said Scott Brennen, a research fellow at the Reuters Institute. The most common claims had to do with the policies and actions of public authorities, although we saw plenty of misinformation about the medical side.

He said research into coronavirus disinformation almost certainly underestimated the enormous role played by WhatsApp because there are few ways for researchers to build an accurate picture of how material is spreading on the Facebook-owned service.

In one example on Wednesday the South East Coast Ambulance Service was forced to issue a statement about a fake voicemail message going viral on the service. It purported to be from someone who works at the service claiming falsely that ambulances would not make callouts to people at home suffering from Covid-19, that ice rinks were being used as makeshift morgues, and that a third of the deaths in coming weeks would be babies, children and teenagers with no underlying health issues.

The service said: The alarmist information being shared in the message is not correct. We would urge people to disregard the message and not share it further.

Additional reporting by Martin Belam

Celebrities who have drawn criticism for spreading coronavirus disinformation

The British singer, who is also an opponent of vaccination programmes, has posted a series of tweets criticising engineers installing fibre broadband outside her London home while suggesting the supposed symptoms of being near 5G base stations were similar to those of coronavirus.

The lauded actor, who starred in Cheers and True Detective, has shared a series of posts to his Instagram page making baseless claims linking the coronavirus outbreak to the installation of 5G equipment in Chinese cities.

In a post on Instagram that combined many of the most popular coronavirus conspiracies in a single medley, the British boxer claimed that coronavirus was man-made designed to cull the worlds population and said the lockdown was used to provide cover for the rollout of 5G.

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Influencers among 'key distributors' of coronavirus misinformation - The Guardian

Just seven weeks after Africa recorded its first case of Covid-19 an Italian national in Algeria the virus is creeping across the continent, infecting more than 10,000 people and causing 487 deaths. Three of the regions 54 countries So Tome and Principe, Comoros, and Lesotho remain apparently virus-free.

Case numbers are increasing exponentially in the African region, said Dr Matshidiso Moeti, the World Health Organization (WHO) regional director for Africa. It took 16 days from the first confirmed case in the region to reach 100 cases. It took a further 10 days to reach the first thousand. Three days after this, there were 2,000 cases, and two days later we were at 3,000.

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In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, coronavirus has spread beyond the capital, Kinshasa, to the easternmost regions of the country, which until recently were still in the grip of an Ebola outbreak, according to the WHO.

In South Africa, which has the highest viral incidence on the continent, all provinces are now fighting the outbreak of Covid-19. Confirmed cases in Cameroon, Senegal and Burkina Faso are also widespread.

While transmission rates are still low, the key fear is over what happens next.

The issues with Africa like many places but even more so are that the lack of testing means we dont have any secure understanding of the true amounts of infection, said Dr William Hanage, professor of epidemiology at Harvard. We would expect it to be in the early stages now, given that in general the major metropolitan centres are less connected than, say, New York.

Without better understanding of the way the virus operates such as the immunological or genetic factors that may protect some people it is impossible to say how severe the impact of Covid-19 will be on the continent, said Prof Thumbi Ndungu of the African Institute for Health Research.

We dont yet have a good answer as to why rates are lower in Africa than in Europe or China. One possibility is that that coronavirus hit during the European winter and the virus doesnt spread perhaps as efficiently in warmer and more humid climates, which one study has shown. Another possibility is that Africa, in general, has a much younger population [than Europe or China].

The last possibility is that it may just be a matter of time before it hits Africa as much as its hit other places. If thats the case, and we get community transmission in sub-Saharan Africa at the rates that weve witnessed in Italy, we could be staring at a catastrophe, Ndungu said.

He added: We dont have the hospitals, the ICUs or the ventilators to deal with massive amounts of [infected] people, so if the spread is comparable to that seen in Europe or China, the outcome could be devastating.

If the spread is comparable to that seen in Europe or China, the outcome could be devastating

In South Africa, which has the highest prevalence of HIV in the world and among the highest for tuberculosis, people have already been hit by lockdowns and reduced access to health clinics, according to Dr Michelle Moorhouse, of Ezintsha, Wits Institute in Johannesburg.

We are telling people to stay home and avoid the clinics so this will impact testing, starting treatment, and potentially could see people interrupting treatment, if they are afraid to venture out and collect their medication, she said. We have been urging, where possible, that clinics dispense more antiretrovirals (ARVs) at each visit to try to keep people living with HIV out of clinics and so reduce their exposure.

We do not really have any clear idea what Covid-19 will do in a population where overcrowding, TB and HIV are highly prevalent.

In Uganda, at least 1.4 million people are living with HIV. Milly Katana, a public health specialist, told the Guardian that the coronavirus lockdown is unfortunately not locking up HIV.

I have information from Ankole districts [in western Uganda] where patients are in a desperate situation, walking for seven hours, sleeping at health facilities and going back the following day, said Katana, warning that the situation could lead to drug resistance.

Many of our friends are running out of ARVs. This is more worrying given that dolutegravir (DTG), the first-line drug of choice, has a very short temper. Miss a few doses and one gets a resistant strain of HIV. The next HIV epidemic will be resistant to not only DTG, but the drugs in the same class.

For Helen Jenkins, epidemiologist at Boston University School of Public Health, the suspension of research into and vaccination of infectious diseases is likely to have a profound impact. I am very concerned for when the pandemic truly hits a high-TB-burden country, of which there are many in Africa, she said.

HIV patients are in a desperate situation, walking for seven hours, sleeping at health facilities and going back the following day

There is likely to be greater severity of Covid-19 infection in people with TB, or damaged lungs from previous TB. In addition, research into all infectious diseases is stopping in many places, vaccination campaigns are stopping, so we are likely to see increases in vaccine-preventable diseases such as measles or polio.

Malaria symptoms can also present similarly to coronavirus, leading to confusion.

Anyone whose body temperature is higher than normal is suspected to be infected with coronavirus and put in isolation wards and in quarantine locations where people who have arrived from abroad are being observed, said Chris Macoloo, director for the US development charity World Neighbors in east and west Africa.

The possibility is that a person who has merely a raised temperature (maybe unrelated to the virus) is likely to be infected when brought closer to people under isolation. There is a likelihood that lower-order health facilities such as dispensaries are referring malaria patients to the Covid-19 health teams. So in the incubation stage, a lot of confusion is occurring.

Dr Joyce Samoutou-Wong of the Congo-based charity New Sight Eye Care says her charity has distributed more than 12,000 leaflets and posters and recorded several broadcasts in Congo and abroad regarding the virus.

We had to close our clinic on 31 March and we normally serve 200 patients per month. Cargo supplies are still running, for now, but we depend on visits from abroad to bring a lot of our supplies, which have obviously been suspended, plus weve had to postpone the construction of an eye hospital.

Samoutou-Wong said a European-style lockdown would be totally impossible in Africa. A lot of myths are out there. People think Congo bololo (a plant) or lemon and garlic can protect them from the virus.

We are on the edge of the rainforest, so there is no panic buying because people dont have the resources to stock up on supplies, and quarantine is impossible because people share clothes, beds, floor space, utensils. Water pumps are a hotspot for the virus, so the hardest measure to implement is simply hand washing.

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Coronavirus in Africa: what happens next? - The Guardian

Lauren Gardner of Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, with her groups COVID-19 global dashboard

By Jocelyn KaiserApr. 6, 2020 , 6:25 PM

Sciences COVID-19 reporting is supported by the Pulitzer Center.

Many websites track the devastating spread of disease and death caused by the now-pandemic coronavirus, from the World Health Organizations (WHOs)global maptoThe New York Timess tally of U.S. cases at thecounty level. But one of the earliest, anonline dashboardrun by Johns Hopkins University, has become the go-to place for the latest data on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

With its black world map strewn with red circles and global, country, and state counts of cases, deaths, and recoveries, the Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases tracker sticks to the basicsno fancy graphs. Yet the site, which gets more than 1 billion hits a day, has become the most authoritative source for COVID-19 case data. It is used by news organizations and government agencies around the world. Its dashboard has been copied by states and countries. It has been spotted on a wall in a photo of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Servicess coronavirus war room.

Behind the site is Lauren Gardner, co-director of Hopkinss Center for Systems Science and Engineering, whose previous work involved spatial modeling of epidemics of measles and the Zika virus. Gardner spoke with ScienceInsider on Friday, 3 April, the day COVID-19 cases surpassed 1 million worldwide, with more than 50,000 deaths. This interview has been edited for clarity and brevity.

Q: There are a lot of sites tracking COVID-19 cases. How did yours come out on top?

A: Probably because its been around the longest. We started this in January when the outbreak was pretty much just in China. My grad student Ensheng Dong, who is Chinese, was personally interested. In a few hours, we built the original dashboard. And the next day [22 January] I shared it on Twitter, and it immediately became popular.

Q: The dashboard draws on hundreds of sources, from WHO data to sites that aggregate news stories and social media reports on COVID-19. How do you make sure its accurate and not double counting?

A: There are millions of eyeballs on it all the time. So, if were off, people reach out and contact us very quickly. We get thousands of emails. Well get told, Hey, theres two new cases here that you dont know about.We also now have an anomaly detection system in place that alerts us to discrepancies in the case reports that we automatically collect.

We do have to worry about loops [where our own data are fed back to us as original cases]. There is a media aggregation site for the United States called 1point3Acresthat we follow really closely. We take U.S. data from them, and they pull global data from us. We have to be really careful to only reference their national data. But the thing is, if there is a loop no ones reports [of COVID-19 cases and deaths] would ever increase. So, we know thats not happening.

What I would like is for all the different local health authorities to keep improving their own reporting in a way that we can draw the data directly from them rather than from local media reports.

Q: Couldnt you get the U.S. data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention?

A: You would think so. But they only provide state-level data, and its sometimes a 24- to 48-hour delay. Theres nothing at a county level.

Q: How big is your team?

A: At first, it was my group, which is about six people. But early on, Hopkins reached out and offered support internally. Because we were blowing up Amazon [cloud computing] servers with all the demand. Now, the Applied Physics Lab [at Hopkins] helps with the back-end data curation and tech. Esri, the company that has the mapping software, helps manage the platform. People at Hopkins manage the media and communications. But the group is still way smaller than it should be for what were doing.

Q: What is the workload like? Do you work in shifts?

A: For over 2 months, we were trying to make decisions on where to collect data from, what data was trusted, how to aggregate it, validate it. We initially did everything manually. Now, almost everythings automated with various cross checks in place. The dashboard is automatically updated hourly. Were also on a 24-hour rotating shift for things like server issues and data curation. For instance, we have a Ph.D. student based in England who gets our early morning shift.

Its a big volunteer-based public service effort. We just are trying our best to make it be as good as possible, but we know its not perfect.

Q:Youve gotten flak for calling Taiwan Taiwan, and for initially placing the Diamond Princess cruise ship cases in the middle of the United States, which happens to be in Kansas.

A: Yeah, every day is a new surprise. The geopolitical implications have been stressful and distracting. I just want to report the data that will be the most useful and appropriate for the people that are trying to get access to it. The virus doesnt care about the borders.

Up until yesterday, we had a lot of cases without an assigned location on Null Island, right off the coast of Africa, which is [a location in the ocean that has] zero coordinates [latitude and longitude]. Its famous. I thought it was a great place to put everything that doesnt have a specific location yet. But that upset a lot of people, so thats gone.

Q: As the number of COVID-19 cases grows, is it more work?

A: Its actually less manual work now because its automated. Were spending more time doing other types of research now. Almost 90% of my interests and efforts are back to mathematical modeling around this disease. Were doing real-time risk assessment of whats going on in the United States, aiming to feed these results back to policymakers to say, Heres the counties that we should be worried about tomorrow.We can do it, so we should be helping with that.

Q: Are you getting much sleep?

A: Its exhausting. Weve been doing this full on since January. We dropped everything else in the lab. And its probably going to be this way for at least another couple of months. And I think well be tracking the outbreak for a year. Itll keep going and bouncing around all over the world. So, its a 110% effort for sure. I think all public health people working in this space feel the same.

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'Every day is a new surprise.' Inside the effort to produce the world's most popular coronavirus tracker - Science Magazine

Yet psychologists now know that only a small percentage of people develop the full-blown disorder while, on average, anywhere from one half to two-thirds of trauma survivors exhibit whats known as post-traumatic growth. After a crisis, most people acquire a newfound sense of purpose, develop deeper relationships, have a greater appreciation of life and report other benefits.

Its not the adversity itself that leads to growth. Its how people respond to it. According to the psychologists Richard Tedeschi and Lawrence Calhoun of the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, who coined the term post-traumatic growth in the 1990s, the people who grow after a crisis spend a lot of time trying to make sense of what happened and understanding how it changed them. In other words, they search for and find positive meaning.

In modern psychology research, this is known, a bit unfortunately, as benefit finding. Mr. Frankl called it the human capacity to creatively turn lifes negative aspects into something positive or constructive. Of course, some people are naturally more hopeful than others. But the success of psychological interventions like meaning-centered psychotherapy developed by Dr. William Breitbart at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center and his colleagues to help terminal patients cope with death reveals that even the most despairing individuals have the capacity to find meaning in a crisis.

It may seem inappropriate to call on people to seek the good in a crisis of this magnitude, but in study after study of tragedy and disaster, thats what resilient people do. In a study of over a 1,000 people, 58 percent of respondents reported finding positive meaning in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks, such as a greater appreciation of life and a deeper sense of spirituality. Other research shows that benefit finders grow not only psychologically but also physically. Heart attack survivors, for example, who found meaning in the weeks after their crisis were, eight years later, more likely to be alive and in better health than those who didnt.

This doesnt mean that people should endure adversities with a smiling face. In fact, Mr. Frankl specifically said that tragic optimism is not the same thing as happiness. To the European, he wrote, it is a characteristic of the American culture that, again and again, one is commanded and ordered to be happy. But happiness cannot be pursued; it must ensue. One must have a reason to be happy.

He was right: In American culture, when people are feeling depressed or anxious, they are often advised to do what makes them happy. Much of the pandemic-related mental-health advice channels that message, encouraging people to distract themselves from bad news and difficult feelings, to limit their time on social media and to exercise.

Im not suggesting those arent worthy activities. But if the goal is coping, they do not penetrate into the psyche as deeply as meaning does. When people do things that make them happy, like playing games or sleeping in, they feel better but those feelings fade fast, according to research by Veronika Huta of the University of Ottawa and Richard Ryan of the University of Rochester.

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How to Protect Your Mental Health During the Coronavirus - The New York Times

If the current trend continues, the outlook is bleak, said Kentaro Iwata, an infection control specialist from Kobe University, who has repeatedly warned that Japan isn't doing enough to halt the spread of the virus.

"Japan needs to have the courage to change, when we are aware we are on the wrong path," Iwata said. "We might see the next New York City in Tokyo."

As of Friday, Japan had 3,329 confirmed cases and 74 deaths.

"The beginning of the burst of the infections in Spain, France, Italy, New York City -- was really like Tokyo right now," said Iwata.

He says there needs to be more testing.

As of Friday, Tokyo had tested fewer than 4,000 people in a city of 13.5 million. And just 39,466 people had been tested in this nation of 125 million, according to the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare.

The Japanese government says its testing regime is adequate and suitably targeted to high risk cases.

"Testing people with a low probability of novel coronavirus would be a waste of resources," Japan's Health Ministry told CNN in a statement. "We ask people with some symptoms to stay home for a period of time."

Turned down for a test

Coronavirus patient Issei Watanabe spoke to CNN from his Tokyo hospital room. He struggled to breathe in between coughing fits. Doctors consider his a "mild case" and expect he'll be discharged on Tuesday.

Watanabe is 40, a non-smoker, in good health. His symptoms came on quickly. Body aches, chills, no sense of taste or smell.

When he asked for a coronavirus test, he says he was turned down -- and had to endure five days with a fever above 40 degrees Celsius -- 104 degrees Fahrenheit -- before he was finally allowed to take a test, which came back positive.

Watanabe says he infected at least two people during that time.

"People don't know what to do. There's a real lack of good information," Watanabe said. "Your life is in your hands. Stay home. Please stay home. Don't go out."

Watanabe worries about the tens of millions of Japanese who are older than 65. He knows he'll recover, but many in Japan's aging society won't.

Infectious disease experts warn of a steep price in human life -- if coronavirus spreads rapidly, in this rapidly aging society.

"Coronavirus is very dangerous to old people," said Masahiro Kami, executive director of Japan's nonprofit Medical Governance Research Institute. He said most coronavirus patients in Japan are likely showing few, if any, symptoms.

"When they are asymptomatic, they can transmit the coronavirus to others," Kami warned.

No lockdown

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has repeatedly stated the situation inside Japan does not warrant declaring a state of emergency or imposing a lockdown in Tokyo.

He said such drastic measures would further damage an economy already grappling with the severe economic fallout of the coronavirus and the postponement of the Tokyo 2020 summer Olympics.

Japanese lawmakers are mulling a massive economic stimulus package that could include cash handouts to Japanese households. The government has been widely mocked for a plan to distribute two cloth face masks per household.

Japan has imposed tough new travel restrictions -- banning foreigners from more than 70 countries, including the US, the UK, and most of Europe. Japan has also beefed up health screenings at airports and is requesting all incoming travelers quarantine for 14 days, although compliance is not actively monitored.

Yet there is growing concern -- inside and outside of the country -- that the government's increasingly dire warnings about the danger of spreading the virus may have reached many people too late.

"The Japanese government's decision to not test broadly makes it difficult to accurately assess the Covid-19 prevalence rate," the alert said.

"While we have confidence in Japan's health care system today, we believe a significant increase in Covid-19 cases makes it difficult to predict how the system will be functioning in the coming weeks. In the event of a spike in cases, US citizens with pre-existing medical conditions may not be able to receive the medical care they have grown accustomed to in Japan prior to the Covid-19 pandemic."

Last week, huge crowds gathered for hanami, the viewing of the cherry blossoms. Some people were seen wearing masks, but many did not.

Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike and Abe are pleading with the public to stay home, avoid travel, and practice social distancing. Some are listening, but many are not.

The government's policy so far has been to try to contain clusters by contract tracing positive cases and instructing suspected cases to quarantine.

Proponents of the Japanese coronavirus approach have argued the society's cultural practices -- such as bowing instead of shaking hands, widespread use of surgical face masks, and more frequent washing of the hands and mouth -- could spare Japan from the kind of rapid spread of coronavirus seen in other nations.

When asked if Japan is protected because it is not a "hug and handshake" culture, Iwata said "it is possibly one of the reasons for having less infections when compared to Europe and America."

He calls the theory "valid," but "unproven." He does not believe Japan should base its strategy on the hope that hygienic cultural practices will be enough to spare Tokyo the worst.

While Koike and Abe have urged the city's population of 13.5 million people to work from home -- advice heeded by major Japanese corporations like Honda, Toyota and Nissan -- telework is not possible for about 80% of Japanese companies, according to 2019 government data.

Scores of people are still commuting into the capital, as evidenced by packed subway trains during rush hour. And despite the temporary closure of some major Japanese department stores and around 500 Starbucks locations, many bars and restaurants remain open and full of customers.

Governor Koike announced Friday that 628 of the 750 beds Tokyo has secured for coronavirus patients are occupied, mostly by people with mild symptoms.

Health authorities are in negotiations to move patients who are asymptomatic or reasonably well to separate lodgings such as hotels, she said.

Once again, Koike warned of an impending crisis and urged people to stay at home.

The curve does not appear to be flattening in Tokyo. If anything, the situation seems to be getting worse.

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There are fears a coronavirus crisis looms in Tokyo. Is it too late to change course? - CNN

On March 19, citing the virus, coalition and NATO training missions both suspended operations for two months. By March 29, Australia, Spain, France, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Portugal and the Netherlands had withdrawn almost all of their trainers.

In parallel, the U.S. withdrew from its frontline operating bases at Mosul, Al-Qaim, Qayyarah, Kirkuk and Taqaddum in the last week of March. Most U.S. forces were redistributed inside fewer, better-protected Iraqi bases such as Al-Asad and Erbil airport, both of which are now protected by newly installed U.S. missile defenses, to prevent a recurrence of the Jan. 8 Iranian missile attacks that left more than 100 U.S. troops with mild traumatic brain injuries.

The Iraqi military are meanwhile distracted by disaster relief, enforcing a nationwide curfew, and looking after their own health and that of their families. (Officially, the virus had sickened over 1,100 and killed 65 Iraqis as of Tuesday, but lack of testing means the real number is likely significantly higher.) Rural clearance operations have almost ceased and the pace of special forces raids has slackened, in part because of the severe disruption to intelligence, planning and air support provided by the U.S.-led coalition.

For the Islamic State, this is all a godsend. In its view, the pandemic is a literal act of divine intervention as it reached its lowest ebb. Terrorism expert Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi noted that IS newsletter, Al-Naba, called coronavirus Gods torment upon the Crusader nations, and urged fighters to take advantage of the distraction and disruption caused by the virus.

In many ways the Islamic State is quite well adapted for operations during a pandemic. Its cells are isolated, avoiding the risk of contamination by performing extreme social distancing long before the rest of us. Its leadership issued early instructions to its cadres to limit their exposure to the virusfrom the CDC-approved recommendations (washing hands and covering up coughs and sneezes) to Koranic verses involving lions and leprosy.

IS are somewhat self-contained, living in remote hideouts and underground shelters, drawing on independent food and water caches, and powering electronic devices with solar battery chargers. In every sense of the phrase, the thousands of members of this millenarian terrorist cult are the ultimate doomsday preppers.

On the ground, there have been small signs of Islamic State recovery at the tactical level, probably due to the cessation of counterinsurgency operations targeting them.

The four Iraqi military clearance operations undertaken in March were half as many as in April, and they lacked the coalition intelligence and air support that can focus such operations more effectively, instead falling into the less efficient category of unearthing arms caches but not catching enemy fighters.

Whereas U.S. and Iraqi special operations forces did a minisurge of joint raids in Februarydropping in by U.S. helicopters or tilt-rotor Osprey aircraft to raid caves and stop vehicles driven by IS membersthere were no such raids in March.

Left to operate without being pressured and chased from hideout to hideout, Islamic State has been getting more ambitious at local level. In Khanaqin District, close to the Iran-Iraq border, IS quadrupled its average number of mortar and rocket attacks in March and combined the bombardments with sustained machine-gun fire and ground assaults on security force outposts.

Over a five-day period beginning March 17, insurgents fired 15 mortar rounds into heavily populated neighborhoods of cities such as Tuz Khurmatu and Amerli, a type of attack that has not been seen for more than two years.

Islamic States next steps are easy to guess. It will increase rural assassination raids on local village leadersso-called mukhtarsand use intimidation to increase its ability to raise funds. Disruption to security force clearance operations will increase IS ability to make advanced roadside bombs in its hideouts and use these weapons, and other harassment tactics, to keep the security forces buttoned down in their bases.

If left unchecked, this kind of aggressive patrolling allows insurgents to gain psychological dominance over the local military garrisons and civilian populations. Before long, the insurgents will become the local power brokers, and it will no longer be possible to claim that IS days of territorial control are over. This is how the caliphate knits itself back together, one village at a time. This is exactly how it happened in 2012-14, after the previous U.S. withdrawal.

The only way to stop an IS resurgence, still in its infancy but now facing an improved outlook, is to reinvigorate an effective counterterrorism raiding campaign. This requires ongoing partnership between U.S. and Iraqi special forces, and between Iraqs commandos and the local Sunni populations in IS strongholds. Unlike 2011, the U.S. should not leave Iraq entirely, but should rather lower its visibility.

In all likelihood, non-U.S. military forces will never return to Iraq in the numbers that were recently withdrawn, with the virus providing a way to justify withdrawal even though Iraqi security forces are arguably not prepared to restrain an Islamic State resurgence. U.S. forces may also dwindle in terms of raw numbers in Iraq, where Iran-backed factions are promising long-term armed resistance to the open presence of U.S. advisers.

This does not have to be the end of an effective counterterrorism fight, however.

In places as diverse as Yemen, Somalia, Mali and Syria, the U.S. Special Operations Command has employed quiet partnerships with local special forces and paramilitary proxies to take on terrorist cells in a more targeted and effective manner than the large-scale train-and-equip program that appears to be eroding in Iraq. The coalition mission in Iraqdue to turn 6 years old in Septembermight expire, but the effort to prevent another IS comeback cannot afford to take a break, whether as a result of coronavirus, Iran-backed militias or a devilish combination of the two. The answer may be to take the war underground and back into the shadows.

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How the Islamic State Feeds on Coronavirus - POLITICO

A tiger at the Bronx Zoo has been infected with the coronavirus, in what is believed to be a case of what one official called human-to-cat transmission.

This is the first instance of a tiger being infected with Covid-19, according to the federal Agriculture Department, which noted that although only one tiger was tested, the virus appeared to have infected other animals as well.

Several lions and tigers at the zoo showed symptoms of respiratory illness, according to a statement by the department. They are expected to recover.

Public health officials believe that the large cats caught Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, from a zoo employee.

Thats the assumption, that one of the keepers who was asymptomatic or shedding the virus before they were sick was the source of the infection, Dr. Paul Calle, chief veterinarian at the Bronx Zoo, said in a phone interview.

While the zookeepers generally keep a barrier between themselves and the cats, they do get within a few feet of the animals. During the course of feeding and doing enrichment they will come within feet of them but on opposite sides of the barrier, he said.

The tiger, a 4-year-old Malayan tiger named Nadia, appeared visibly sick by March 27.

Her sister Azul and two Amur tigers are also sick. They live in the zoos Tiger Mountain enclosure. Another tiger that lives in the same place has not exhibited any clinical signs, according to a statement by the zoo.

There is no evidence that other animals in other areas of the zoo are showing symptoms, the Agriculture Department said.

Lyndsay M. Cole, assistant director of public affairs for the departments animal and plant inspection service, said there have been no reports of sickened animals in other zoos in the United States.

The Bronx Zoo, one of the largest in the United States and one of New Yorks top attractions, houses roughly 6,000 animals.

And zoos, unlike museums or Broadway theaters, cannot entirely shut down. Animals still need to be cared for and checked on. Penguin chicks might require help after they hatch. Captive tigers, alligators and grizzly bears probably should not be left to their own devices.

The animals that we care for rely on us for everything, Jim Breheny, the director of the Bronx Zoo, told The Times last week before the coronavirus case had been confirmed.

The zoo closed to the public on March 16 and since then about 300 workers of its 700-plus staff were deemed essential to care for animals and maintain the zoos operations.

They are split in half into two teams, which report on alternating weeks, maintaining social distancing to protect the animals, while providing hay to American bison or offering fish to hungry Magellanic penguins.

The animals are blissfully unaware of what the rest of us have been going through, said Mr. Breheny, whose first job at age 14 was staffing the zoos camel rides.

The tiger was the only animal tested because the procedure involved general anesthesia, the Agriculture Department said. While there were other tigers and lions showing similar symptoms, the veterinarian wanted to limit the potential risks of general anesthesia to one animal, it said.

We had a sick tiger and we needed to treat the tiger and know what the cause of the illness was so we could care for it, Dr. Calle said.

A pet cat in Belgium recently tested positive for the coronavirus, but the American Veterinary Medical Association said that not enough was known to change the current view that neither cats nor dogs appear to be able to pass the virus to people.

A scientific study in China, which has not yet been peer reviewed, found that the virus reproduces efficiently in cats and can be transmitted by respiratory droplets, but this was in laboratory conditions. The report did not say what kind of symptoms the cats experienced, if any.

Another report, which has also not yet been peer reviewed, concluded on the basis of blood tests that cats had been infected in Wuhan. The World Organisation for Animal Health says that there is no evidence that cats or dogs spread the disease to humans, but that anyone who is sick should take precautions in contact with their animals as they would with people.

There have been no known reports of pets becoming sick with Covid-19 in the United States. But the Agriculture Department recommended that people who have the virus limit contact with animals.

If you are sick with Covid-19, avoid contact with your pet, including petting, snuggling, being kissed or licked, and sharing food, the department said.

Christine Hauser and James Gorman contributed reporting.

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Bronx Zoo Tiger Is Sick With the Coronavirus - The New York Times

Olivia and Raul De Freitas are currently on their honeymoon, at a five-star resort, in the Maldives, a nation composed of more than a thousand tiny, idyllic islands in the Indian Ocean, like a trail of smashed crystals scattered on a slab of blue glass. For years the subject of fantasy photo spreads in glossy magazines, featuring luxe bungalows on stilts, in unreal aquamarine water, it was an obvious choice for their romantic getaway.

The couple arrived just married from South Africa, where they are citizens, on Sunday, March 22, planning to stay for six days. For a 27-year-old teacher and a 28-year-old butcher, the holiday was an extravagance, Ms. De Freitas said. But since they hadnt lived together before exchanging vows, it would be a short, firecracker of a launch to their marriage.

Still, they had some concerns about the trip, considering the mounting travel restrictions imposed in light of the new coronavirus outbreak around the world. But nothing specific that would affect them had been announced, and their travel agent assured them that, whatever policy was forthcoming, all South African citizens would be allowed back home. Go ahead and have a great time, they were told.

By Wednesday, they received notice that their countrys airports would all be closed by midnight Thursday. Flights back to South Africa are five hours to Doha, Qatar, a three-hour layover, and then nine hours to Johannesburg so even if they scrambled, and even if they could get a flight, the complexities of leaving their remote island ensured theyd never make it home in time.

As much of the world rapidly ground to a halt, the few other guests still at the resort last week escaped to their respective countries. The last of them to leave, Americans, had to wrangle permission for a flight to Russia, before returning to the United States.

The couple considered taking the hour-and-a-half speedboat ride to the main island and trying their luck at the airport. But the Maldives had also announced their own lockdown around the same time, banning any new foreign travelers. If they left the resort, they might not be allowed back in. So, they stayed.

Mr. De Freitas, described by his wife as the calm one, took the strange turn of events in stride. This would all get sorted out, and, besides, they were in paradise. Ms. De Freitas, naturally, shared some of her husbands delight, but sensed a logistical nightmare worthy of Kafka was about to ensue.

They reached out to the South African Consulate in the Maldives, and the closest South African Embassy, in Sri Lanka, for help. A representative told them, via WhatsApp, that there were around 40 other South Africans spread among the Maldives, and that their option home would be to hire a chartered jet, at their own expense, for $104,000.

Everyone could split the cost, the message noted, but the government had only connected with around half of the 40 people; of those 20, many were unable or refusing to pay. The fewer the number of people on board, the more expensive each share would become. Even so, after several days of discussions between South African representatives and the Maldivian Foreign Ministry, the flight still hasnt been approved.

By Sunday, they were the only guests at their resort, the Cinnamon Velifushi Maldives, which normally is at capacity this time of year, catering to some 180 guests. (Room rates start at $750 a night, its website still says.) The resort comprises the entirety of its speck of an island. There is nowhere to go. The couple reign like benign yet captive sovereigns over their islet. The days are long and lazy. They sleep in, snorkel, lounge by the pool, repeat.

The resorts full staff are at hand, because of the presence of the two guests. Government regulations wont allow any Maldivians to leave resorts until after they undergo a quarantine that follows their last guests departure. Accustomed to the flow of a bustling workday, and the engagement with a full house of guests, most of the staff, having grown listless and lonely, dote on the couple ceaselessly. Their room boy checks on them five times a day. The dining crew made them an elaborate candlelit dinner on the beach. Every night performers still put on a show for them in the resorts restaurant: Two lone audience members in a grand dining hall.

At breakfast, nine waiters loiter by their table. Hostesses, bussers and assorted chefs circulate conspicuously, like commoners near a celebrity. The couple has a designated server, but others still come by to chat during meals, topping off water glasses after each sip, offering drinks even though brimming cocktail glasses stand in full view, perspiring. The diving instructor pleads with them to go snorkeling whenever they pass him by.

Theres something forlorn, unsettling even, about wandering an empty space thats supposed to be full. Reclining alone, amid the silent, abandoned bank of beach chairs, the equatorial sun shimmers off the sea to the horizon, browning skin and bleaching driftwood. Weve started playing a lot of table tennis and snooker, Ms. De Freitas said. Mr. De Freitas has also taken to joining staff soccer games in the afternoons.

Somewhere, beyond all this, the world roils. After an early panic and local quarantine around an ill tourist, there have been fewer than two dozen reported total cases of the new coronavirus on Maldivian islands; the majority of people diagnosed have recovered already.

Most recently, theyd heard that flight permissions are supposed to be sorted out by Monday, April 6. That was an extension from April 1, so these dates seem to merely be optimistically penciled in. No matter: The latest wrinkle, they were told, is that the Maldivian airline crew assigned for the charter wont fly anyway, needing to rest for a day before their return flight to the Maldives. But the South African government said if they deplane theyll be quarantined there for 14 days. This is, apparently, a deal breaker. And a flight originating from their home country is not being offered as an option.

The lockdown in South Africa is supposed to last until April 16. But, like everywhere, decrees about travel and movement are continually changing.

Its incredible that we get this extra time, Ms. De Freitas said. But the financial toll is weighing on them, heavily. Though the couple has been paying a generously discounted rate, the bill grows ever larger. Each day that ticks by is a chip taken out of their savings that had been set aside for a house down payment.

To their escalating endless honeymoon debt, they can add the unknown price of two tickets on what may likely be a near-vacant 200-seat jet. Everyone says they want to be stuck on a tropical island, until youre actually stuck, Ms. De Freitas said. It only sounds good because you know you can leave.

On Sunday, April 5, according to the couple, they were given an hours notice by the embassy, communicating via WhatsApp, to pack their bags. After saying their goodbyes and thank-yous, they were taken by speedboat to another five-star resort, where South Africans in the Maldives, about two dozen in all, are being consolidated. The local government told them it would subsidize a large portion of the cost of their stay.

Their return date home? Still unknown.

As for their original hotels staff, they have been told they must remain for two weeks after the guests departure. According to the hotel management, they have been, and are still being, paid.

Editors Note: After publication, this article was updated to reflect new conditions.

Originally posted here:

How The Coronavirus Stranded This Couple in the Maldives - The New York Times

Executive Summary

The coronavirus crisis has led to new consumer behaviors and sentiments. The author recommends five ways for brands to serve and grow their customers, mitigate risk, and take care of their people during this difficult time: 1) Present with empathy and transparency; 2) Use media in more agile ways; 3) Associate your brand with good; 4) Track trends and build scenarios; 5) Adapt to new ways of working to keep delivering.

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In times of crisis, it may be hard for marketers to know where to begin. In just a few short weeks, people have shifted into protection mode, focused on themselves, their families, their employees, their customers, and their communities. Social media reflects this, with pleas for fellow citizens to follow government safety guidelines. People have crossed partisan lines to build bridges within their neighborhoods and communities and unify against an invisible force.

With social distancing keeping many people at home, were also seeing major shifts in behavioral trends. Consumers have returned to broadcast and cable television and other premium media sources for credible information. They are also seeking more in the way of escapism and entertainment downloading gaming apps, spending even more time on social media, and streaming more movies and scripted programming. And between remote working arrangements and live-streamed workout classes, college lectures, and social engagements, we are testing the bandwidth of our homes in a largely pre-5G world.

Meanwhile, the need for physical goods is placing pressure on new channels, with demand for e-commerce rising to new levels. For those who do venture out, grocery and convenience stores are the source for essentials, but supply is inconsistent. Health and safety concerns are driving more customers toward frictionless payment systems, such as using mobile phones to pay at check-out without touching a surface or stylus.

Some of these behavior changes may be temporary, but many may be more permanent. As people move beyond the current mode of survival, the momentum behind digital-experience adoption is unlikely to reverse as people are forced by circumstances to try new things. With so much changing so fast during this difficult time, what actions can brands take to serve and grow their customer base, mitigate risk, and take care of their people ?

People feel vulnerable right now. Empathy is critical. Many banks, for example, have moved to waive overdraft fees, recognizing the hardship on their customers. SAP has made its Qualtrics Remote Work Pulse platform free to companies who might be rapidly transitioning to new ways of working. Such instances show humility in the face of a force larger than all of us.

The nuances of brand voice are more delicate than ever. Brands that use this time to be commercially exploitative will not fare well. Better to do as Guinness did in the period surrounding St. Patricks Day, when the company shifted its focus away from celebrations and pub gatherings and instead leaned into a message of longevity and wellbeing. In these moments, we dont have all the answers, and we need to acknowledge that. If you make pledges, even during uncertain times, you have to be able to deliver on what you say.

To quickly pivot creative messages as circumstances change, marketers will want to build more rapid-response operating models internally and with agencies. Access to remote production and creative capacity will become particularly important as the crisis evolves. Nike, for example, immediately moved to adopt a new message: Play inside, play for the world. And in order to promote social distancing and show a commitment to public safety, Chiquita Brands removed Miss Chiquita from their logo. Im already home. Please do the same and protect yourself, its Instagram caption read.

Beyond creative, as the mix of actual media platforms used by consumers changes quickly, marketers should consider modifying their media mix. For example, with digital entertainment spiking, marketers may want to amplify their use of ad-supported premium video streaming and mobile gaming. Similarly, as news consumption peaks while consumers jostle to stay informed, brands should not fear that adjacency, given the level of engagement and relevance. News may simply be an environment that requires more careful monitoring of how frequently ads appear to avoid creative being over-exposed, which can damage brand equity.

People will remember brands for their acts of good in a time of crisis, particularly if done with true heart and generosity. This could take the form of donating to food banks, providing free products for medical personnel, or continuing to pay employees while the companys doors are closed. Adobe, for example, immediately made Creative Cloud available to K-12 institutions, knowing this was a moment to give rather than be purely commercial. Consumers will likely remember how Ford, GE, and 3M partnered to repurpose manufacturing capacity and put people back to work to make respirators and ventilators to fight coronavirus. And people appreciate that many adult beverage companies, from Diageo to AB InBev, repurposed their alcohol-manufacturing capabilities to make hand sanitizer, alleviating short supplies with their Its in our hands to make a difference message.

Feel-good content that alleviates anxiety and promotes positive messaging will go a long way to enhancing the brand. However, companies need to show that their contributions are material and not solely for commercial benefit. Consumers recognize authenticity and true purpose.

Frequent tracking of human behavioral trends will help marketers gain better insights in real time. Marketers will want to measure sentiment and consumption trends on a regular basis to better adapt messaging, closely observing the conversation across social-media platforms, community sites, and e-commerce product pages to look for opportunities and identify looming crises more quickly. Companies should consider quickly building dashboards with this kind of data to fuel the right decisions.

Marketers will also want to consider building deeper connections with their C-suite colleagues to provide insights to executives who, increasingly, will be involved with marketing choices. The marketing team should work closely with finance and operations to forecast different scenarios and potential outcomes, depending on how long the crisis lasts.

Its encouraging how quickly many companies were able to transition to remote working arrangements. Deploying collaboration technologies can seamlessly provide chat, file sharing, meeting and call capabilities, enabling teams to stay connected and remain productive. Already, virtual happy hours are emerging as the new normal to build team morale. Partners are pitching remotely, recognizing that an in-face sales call is unlikely to transpire for weeks to come. Leaders have to do their best to transition each element of the operating modelfrom marketing, to sales, to serviceto this new normal. New sources of innovation and even margin improvement will emerge out of our current discomfort.

We are in the acknowledge-and-adapt phase of the Covid-19 pandemic. But we also have to plan for lifebeyond the crisis. As we navigate what we know, marketing leaders must work externally to keep their brands and customer journeys as whole as possible, while working internally to do three things:

Unquestionably, there is a forced acceleration of the digital transformation agenda as we recognize how quickly customers and employees have embraced digitally enabled journeys and experiences.

Brands are all having to think, operate, and lead in new ways during these uncertain and unprecedented circumstances, and we will all have to learn together with both confidence and humility.

The views reflected in this article are the views of the authors and dont necessarily reflect the views of the global EY organization or its member firms.

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Brand Marketing Through the Coronavirus Crisis - Harvard Business Review