Category: Corona Virus

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Coronavirus: UK death toll passes Italy to be highest in Europe – BBC News

May 5, 2020

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The UK now has the highest number of coronavirus deaths in Europe, according to the latest government figures.

There have been 29,427 deaths recorded across the UK - a figure Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said was "a massive tragedy".

The latest total for Italy, previously the highest in Europe, now stands at 29,315.

But experts say it could be months before full global comparisons can be made.

Both Italy and the UK record the deaths of people who have tested positive for coronavirus.

BBC head of statistics Robert Cuffe said Britain reached this figure faster in its epidemic than Italy.

But he said there are caveats in making such a comparison, including the UK population being about 10% larger than Italy's.

Each country also has different testing regimes, with Italy conducting more tests than the UK to date.

Speaking at the daily coronavirus briefing, Mr Raab said the 29,427 lives lost was "a massive tragedy" the country has "never seen before... on this scale, in this way".

But he would not be drawn on international comparisons, saying: "I don't think we will get a real verdict on how well countries have done until the pandemic is over, and particularly until we get comprehensive international data on all-cause mortality."

Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, of the University of Cambridge, said we can be "certain" that all reported figures are "substantial underestimates" of the true number who have died with the virus.

He said: "We can safely say that none of these countries are doing well, but this is not Eurovision and it is pointless to try and rank them."

He added the "only sensible comparison is by looking at excess all-cause mortality, adjusted for the age distribution of the country" [but] "even then it will be very difficult to ascribe the reasons for any differences."

This is a sobering moment. Italy was the first part of Europe to see cases rise rapidly, and the scenes of hospitals being overwhelmed were met with shock and disbelief.

But we should be careful how we interpret the figures.

On the face of it, both countries now count deaths in a similar way, including both in hospitals and the community.

But there are other factors to consider.

First, the UK has a slightly larger population. If you count cases per head of population, Italy still comes out worse - although only just.

Cases are confirmed by tests - and the amount of testing carried out varies.

The geographical spread looks quite different too - half of the deaths in Italy have happened in Lombardy.

In the UK, by comparison, they have been much more spread out. Less than a fifth have happened in London, which has a similar population to Lombardy.

Then, how do you factor in the indirect impact from things such as people not getting care for other conditions?

The fairest way to judge the impact in terms of fatalities is to look at excess mortality - the numbers dying above what would normally happen.

You need to do this over time. It will be months, perhaps even years, before we can really say who has the highest death toll.

Meanwhile, the personal stories of those who have died are still emerging. They include three members of the same family who died within weeks of each other after contracting the virus.

Keith Dunnington, 54, a nurse for more than 30 years, died at his parents home in South Shields on 19 April. His mother Lillian, 81, died on 1 May and her husband Maurice, 85, died days later.

Meanwhile, Momudou Dibba, a house-keeper at Watford Hospital who went "above and beyond" in his job, died with the virus on 29 April.

In a statement, West Hertfordshire NHS Trust said Mr Dibba, known as Mo, was "kind, caring and considerate".

Meanwhile, 14 people from the same care home in Northern Ireland have died from Covid-19 related symptoms.

There have now been 1,383,842 tests for coronavirus across the UK, including 84,806 tests yesterday, Mr Raab told the No 10 briefing.

For the third day in a row, the government has failed to hit its target of 100,000 daily tests.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock set the target at the beginning of April and the government announced on Friday and Saturday that it had hit the 100,000-plus mark.

Separately, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published data on Tuesday showing that by 24 April there were 27,300 deaths where coronavirus was mentioned on the death certificate.

Including deaths reported to the ONS since 24 April, it brings the total number to more than 32,000.

These figures can also include cases where a doctor suspects the individual was infected, but a test was not carried out - whereas the daily government figures rely on confirmed cases.

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Coronavirus: UK death toll passes Italy to be highest in Europe - BBC News

The coronavirus has mutated and appears to be more contagious now, new study finds – CNBC

May 5, 2020

The coronavirus that emerged in Wuhan, China, over four months ago has since mutated and the new, dominant strain spreading across the U.S. appears to be even more contagious, according to a new study.

The new strain began spreading in Europe in early February before migrating to other parts of the world, including the United States and Canada, becoming the dominant form of the virus across the globe by the end of March, researchers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory wrote in a 33-page report published Thursday onBioRxiv.

If the coronavirus doesn't subside in the summer like the seasonal flu, it could mutate further and potentially limit the effectiveness of the coronavirus vaccines being developed by scientists around the world, the researchers warned. Some vaccine researchers have been using the virus's genetic sequences isolated by health authorities early in the outbreak.

"This is hard news," Bette Korber, a computational biologist at Los Alamos and lead author of the study, the Los Angeles Times said she wrote on her Facebook page.

"But please don't only be disheartened by it," she continued. "Our team at LANL was able to document this mutation and its impact on transmission only because of a massive global effort of clinical people and experimental groups, who make new sequences of the virus (SARS-CoV-2) in their local communities available as quickly as they possibly can."

The study has yet to be peer-reviewed, but the researchers noted that news of the mutation was of "urgent concern" considering the more than 100 vaccines in the process of being developed to prevent Covid-19.

In early March, researchers in China said they found that two different types of the coronavirus could be causing infections worldwide.

In a study published on March 3, scientists at Peking University's School of Life Sciences and the Institut Pasteur of Shanghai found that a more aggressive type of the new coronavirus had accounted for roughly 70% of analyzed strains, while 30% had been linked to a less aggressive type.The more aggressive and deadly strain was found to be prevalent in the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan the Chinese city where the virus first emerged.

The Los Alamos researchers, with the help of scientists at Duke University and the University of Sheffield in England, were able to analyze thousands of coronavirus sequences collected bythe Global Initiative for Sharing All Influenza, an organization thatpromotes the rapid sharing of data from all influenza viruses and the coronavirus.

To date, the researchers have identified 14 mutations.

The mutation impacts the spike protein, a multifunctional mechanism that allows the virus to enter the host.

The research was supported by funding fromthe Medical Research Council, the National Institute of Health Research and Genome Research Limited.

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The coronavirus has mutated and appears to be more contagious now, new study finds - CNBC

There Is A Place With No Social Distancing And No Coronavirus – NPR

May 5, 2020

Researchers with the MOSAiC polar expedition inspect the ice in November. Life now feels surreal as they socialize normally, trying to imagine the global pandemic shutdown. Esther Horvath/Alfred Wegener Institute hide caption

Researchers with the MOSAiC polar expedition inspect the ice in November. Life now feels surreal as they socialize normally, trying to imagine the global pandemic shutdown.

How far would you go to escape the coronavirus pandemic?

The MOSAiC expedition is a big, international research project to study the warming Arctic. For a year, scientists from all over the world are taking turns living on a German icebreaker that's frozen into an ice floe while the ship drifts across the Arctic Ocean.

"So, looking around me from the ship's bridge, I can see the ice stretching away to the horizon in every direction," says Chris Marsay, a research associate at the University of Georgia.

He's studying trace elements that get deposited on the surface of the ocean from the atmosphere some good, like iron and zinc, which feed plankton and some bad, like lead. He also occasionally takes his turn on polar bear guard duty, though he says none have been spotted since he started his stint on the boat.

When Marsay left for his three-month shift, the coronavirus was only known to be in China. No one on the ship has gotten it.

"We're able to get on with our daily work," Marsay says. "We sit together for our meals, and we sit together to chat in the evenings."

Marsay and his colleagues were supposed to have left the ship last month, but because of the pandemic those flights were canceled.

"It's been kind of surreal to hear of the restrictions on daily life from family and friends back home," he says. "There have been plenty of conversations onboard about how strange it will be to get back and get confronted with a completely different way of life than that which we left in January."

Now the plan is to break out of the ice and meet another ship, so people can rotate on and off. The new arrivals will be quarantined and tested.

Some worry for friends and family back home. But in a way, Marsay says he and the others feel lucky to be onboard.

"I never expected to come to the middle of the Arctic Ocean and have my daily life less restricted than it would back home," he says. "But in many ways that's certainly the case at the moment."

Marsay says some onboard are eager to get back home. Others are just fine staying insulated from the virus, and all the measures to address it, as long as they can.

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There Is A Place With No Social Distancing And No Coronavirus - NPR

Europe and China were on course for a reset. Coronavirus changed all that – CNN

May 5, 2020

At a showpiece summit in September, the two are set to take a significant step forward in their economic and strategic relationship. At least that was the plan.

As things stand, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is due to gather EU leaders and China's President Xi Jinping in the German city of Leipzig on September 14.

German diplomats say the location was selected because of the former East Germany's historical relationship with China. They say that Merkel, chairing the EU Council presidency for the final time in her chancellorship, was personally invested in the summit's success.

Indeed, pulling China closer to European values on human rights, climate change and multilateralism is the sort of thing leaders' legacies are made of. And while the Leipzig summit is far from a make or break moment in Europe's relationship with China, this level of fanfare has a lot to live up to.

However, there is a real sense in Brussels that the pandemic has led to a reset in European thinking on China.

"I think the coronavirus has been a necessary reminder to a lot of EU states that however attractive Chinese money looks, it is also a systemic rival," says Steven Blockmans, head of EU foreign policy at the Centre for European Policy Studies.

Blockmans is referring to a communique released by the EU Commission in March 2019, in which it described China as "a systemic rival promoting alternative models of governance".

In the context of coronavirus, that Chinese model of government is concerning EU officials.

A spokesperson from the EU's Foreign Affairs and Security Policy told CNN the document cited by Politico was not in fact a draft report.

Whatever the truth, it's clear that some in Brussels are very concerned about China's behavior.

"It's all about seeing which (political) system is better at handling the virus. Is it a system that allows personal liberties? Or is it single-party autocracy where you can impose measures without worrying too much," said one EU official working across external affairs.

So, where does this all leave what was supposed to be the year where China and Europe finally got on the same page?

At the time of writing, very few believe that the Leipzig summit will be as Merkel and co first imagined.

On a practical level, the virus has meant that the two sides have not been able to physically meet. European diplomats point out that in the EU Council building, there are normally around 30 meeting rooms for representatives from the 27 member states to meet in and discuss sensitive issues. "Now there are only about 10 that can guarantee social distancing," said one diplomat.

Velina Tchakarova, head of institute at the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy, predicts that "China's actions during and after the covid-19 would result in further disagreements and fragmentation within the European countries [on] how to settle the relations with Beijing."

She points to disagreements on issues like allowing Chinese firms to build 5G networks and EU-level decisions on who can and cannot invest in member states.

For these reasons and more, most believe that the Leipzig summit will be totally overshadowed by coronavirus.

However, despite these low levels of trust and overt acknowledgment that China is a "systemic rival," it seems likely the EU will try and get things back on track.

"It will make us rethink, but at the same time we cannot walk away from China," an EU diplomat told CNN. "All of our economies rely on supply chains that run back to Wuhan and beyond. We've always said no one's interests are going to be served from not trading with them. So that problem will always be there."

Another German diplomat defended pressing on, saying that "China's influence is rising, but it's not one-sided. Obviously, China also needs Europe." This, Brussels officials hope, means it can pressure China on things like its position on human rights.

For the EU, engagement with China is about more than money. "Increasing its engagement with China gives the EU a chance to double down on its strategic priorities," says Blockmans, referring to the key EU foreign policy priority of balancing its relations with China and the US, giving the EU more autonomy on the world stage.

However, concerns over China's transparency during the pandemic has been a sharp reminder as to exactly what engagement with China actually means.

On one hand, the EU's calculation on China hasn't changed: it's still desirable to not get squashed between the two great superpowers, China and America. On the other, recent history shows China to be an unreliable partner who divides opinion among EU member states.

Sooner or later, Europe will have to weigh these two realities up and decide exactly how much that diplomatic independence from America is really worth.

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Europe and China were on course for a reset. Coronavirus changed all that - CNN

No, the CDC isn’t fiddling with the coronavirus death numbers – CNN

May 5, 2020

"Did I read this wrong or did the CDC just revised the national COVID-19 deaths to 37,308?!?!" tweeted Tim Young, who identifies himself as an author, host and comedian on his Twitter bio.

Soon, the idea was everywhere on the conservative side of the internet. The CDC was openly admitting that the number of dead from coronavirus was FAR less than the 67,000+ deaths commonly being reported by the media.

For many conservatives, the story was too good to resist, since it combined their belief that the government had overreacted to the threat posed by the coronavirus with their distaste for and distrust of the media.

"Provisional death counts are based on death certificate data received and coded by the National Center for Health Statistics as of May 4, 2020. Death counts are delayed and may differ from other published sources (see Technical Notes). Counts will be updated periodically."

So, the numbers that Young and others were peddling as evidence of some sort of revelation about the "real" death count were, in fact, numbers that the CDC acknowledges are weeks behind the actual mortality number.

Jonathan Swift may have died in 1745, but his quote that "a lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is still putting on its shoes" rings truer today -- thanks to the internet's power to multiply falsehoods in seconds -- than it ever did back in the 18th century.

The Point: Coronavirus has laid plain just how big a mis- and dis-information problem we have in the United States. The stripping of context from facts in order to weaponize them to score partisan points is a war in its own right, and all of us are potential victims.

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No, the CDC isn't fiddling with the coronavirus death numbers - CNN

A second Walmart in Massachusetts has closed after cluster of coronavirus cases among employees – CNN

May 5, 2020

One employee from that location has died, Jones said. It is unclear how many employees have tested positive at the store.

Jones said complaints from employees and customers last week led to an investigation into the Quincy store.

"I have had inspectors there everyday last week due to complaints from employees and patrons concerning overcrowding and lack of social distancing," Jones said. "Employees were also concerned that coworkers may be ill. I had been monitoring the number of cases in employees and was concerned with the increase in numbers and the death of an employee, suggesting they test all of the employees,"

The store in Quincy voluntarily closed Monday and the entire facility will be cleaned and disinfected, Jones said.

In a statement to CNN Monday, a Walmart spokesperson said they had been made aware of the loss of an associate from their Quincy store, and "are going through the necessary steps to get a confirmation from the health department, while keeping the associate's privacy in mind."

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A second Walmart in Massachusetts has closed after cluster of coronavirus cases among employees - CNN

State-backed hackers behind wave of cyberattacks targeting coronavirus response, US and UK warn – CNN

May 5, 2020

These malicious actors "frequently target organizations in order to collect bulk personal information, intellectual property and intelligence that aligns with national priorities," according to the UK's National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) and the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA).

"The pandemic has likely raised additional requirements for APT actors to gather information related to COVID-19. For example, actors may seek to obtain intelligence on national and international healthcare policy or acquire sensitive data on COVID-19 related research," the advisory says.

APTs are generally hacking groups sponsored by foreign governments and Monday's alert suggests that supply chains may be especially vulnerable. "Actors view supply chains as a weak link that they can exploit to obtain access to better protected targets. CISA and NCSC have seen 'APT' actors scanning the external web sites of targeted companies looking for vulnerabilities in unpatched software," according to the advisory.

Hospitals, research laboratories, health care providers and pharmaceutical companies have all been hit, officials say, and the Department of Health and Human Services -- which oversees the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention -- has been struck by a surge of daily strikes, an official with direct knowledge of the attacks previously told CNN.

Monday's advisory noted that security agencies in the US and UK "have seen large-scale 'password spraying' campaigns against healthcare bodies and medical research organizations."

"Password spraying" is the attempt to access a large number of accounts using commonly known passwords, according to the joint statement released by NCSC and CISA.

"Protecting the healthcare sector is the NCSC's first and foremost priority at this time, and we're working closely with the NHS to keep their systems safe," Paul Chichester, NCSC director of operations, said in a statement.

"By prioritizing any requests for support from health organizations and remaining in close contact with industries involved in the coronavirus response, we can inform them of any malicious activity and take the necessary steps to help them defend against it," he added.

Bryan Ware, CISA assistant director of cybersecurity, echoed those concerns.

"CISA has prioritized our cybersecurity services to healthcare and private organizations that provide medical support services and supplies in a concerted effort to prevent incidents and enable them to focus on their response to COVID-19," he said.

"The trusted and continuous cybersecurity collaboration CISA has with NCSC and industry partners plays a critical role in protecting the public and organizations, specifically during this time as healthcare organizations are working at maximum capacity," Ware added.

The Department of Justice has said they are particularly concerned about attacks by Chinese hackers targeting US hospitals and labs to steal research related to coronavirus.

"It's certainly the logical conclusion of everything I've said," John Demers, the head of the Justice Department's National Security Division, said when asked specifically about China's actions during an online discussion last month on Chinese economic espionage hosted by Strategic News Service. "We are very attuned to increased cyber intrusions into medical centers, research centers, universities, anybody that is doing research in this area."

"There is nothing more valuable today than biomedical research relating to vaccines for treatments for the coronavirus," Demers added. "It's of great importance not just from a commercial value but whatever countries, company or research lab develops that vaccine first and is able to produce it is going to have a significant geopolitical success story."

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo -- who has been consistently attacking China over the pandemic -- told Fox News last month, "The biggest threat isn't our ability to work with China on cyber, it's to make sure we have the resources available to protect ourselves from Chinese cyberattacks."

But despite an overwhelming consensus that these attacks are occurring at an increasingly high tempo and near universal agreement over the primary state actors, the US and its closest allies have been careful in assigning blame for specific actions.

"If there was that degree of confidence, you'd see more definite language," an official from a country that shares intelligence with the US previously told CNN. "That's not what we're being told."

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State-backed hackers behind wave of cyberattacks targeting coronavirus response, US and UK warn - CNN

Coronavirus In Pennsylvania: Gov. Wolf Says Southwest Region Is Doing A Phenomenal Job And A Reopening Announcement Will Be Made Soon – CBS Pittsburgh

May 5, 2020

PITTSBURGH (KDKA) Gov. Tom Wolf said the southwest region can expect an announcement on moving from the red to yellow phase soon.

We will be making an announcement on that soon, said Gov. Tom Wolf on a conference call with reporters Tuesday. As I said last week, southwestern Pennsylvania is doing a really good job. Were doing the best we can to keep people safe within the constraints of this deadly virus.

The southwest is doing a great job, and the hope is that they can move into the yellow phase like the 24 counties I announced last Friday fairly quickly, Gov. Wolf went on to say.

On Friday, his administration released which 24 counties in the rural northern part of the state will reopen come May 8.

The southwest region will remain in the red phase, meaning the stay-at-home order wont be lifted until the region is moved into the yellow phase.

Allegheny County and the rest of the region easily met the governors criteria of new cases, staying under 50 per 100,000 over 14 days. Allegheny has had less than 30, and the region has had about 33.

Area hospitals have never been stressed, and Allegheny County says its testing and tracing of those who have come in contact with infected people has allowed it to isolate and contain spikes.

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When asked Friday why the southwestern part of the state would not open, Secretary of Health Dr. Rachel Levine cited population density as a concern.

We felt it prudent that, looking at all the different data and all the metrics, but then taking into consideration our ability to work with counties in terms of contact tracing and testing, and the population density of Allegheny County and Pittsburgh, that it was not prudent to go from red to yellow at this time. But we are hoping to do that in the future, Dr. Rachel Levine said.

Even Friday as the reopening announcement was made, Gov. Wolf acknowledged the progress the southwest region has made in flattening the curve.

Were already looking at other counties to move from red to yellow, says Gov. Tom Wolf. In particular, we have our eyes on counties in the southwest and a few in the south-central regions that have lower new case rates, but where we have a few concerns.

Gov. Wolf did not say how soon the southwest region can expect a reopening announcement.

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Coronavirus In Pennsylvania: Gov. Wolf Says Southwest Region Is Doing A Phenomenal Job And A Reopening Announcement Will Be Made Soon - CBS Pittsburgh

How Small Physician Practices are Struggling to Survive During Coronavirus Pandemic – The New York Times

May 5, 2020

Autumn Road in Little Rock, Ark., is the type of doctors practice that has been around long enough to be treating the grandchildren of its eldest patients.

For 50 years, the group has been seeing families like Kelli Rutledges. A technician for a nearby ophthalmology practice, she has been going to Autumn Road for two decades.

The groups four doctors and two nurse practitioners quickly adapted to the coronavirus pandemic, sharply cutting back clinic hours and switching to virtual visits to keep patients and staff safe.

When Kelli, 54, and her husband, Travis, 56, developed symptoms of Covid-19, the couple drove to the groups office and spoke to the nurse practitioner over the phone. She documented all of our symptoms, Ms. Rutledge said. They were swabbed from their car.

While the practice was never a big moneymaker, its revenues have plummeted. The number of patients seen daily by providers has dropped to half its average of 120. The practices payments from March and April are down about $150,000, or roughly 40 percent.

That wont pay the light bill or the rent, said Tabitha Childers, the administrator of the practice, which recently laid off 12 people.

While there are no hard numbers, there are signs that many small groups are barely hanging on. Across the country, only half of primary care doctor practices say they have enough cash to stay open for the next four weeks, according to one study, and many are already laying off or furloughing workers.

The situation facing front-line physicians is dire, three physician associations representing more than 260,000 doctors, wrote to the secretary of health and human services, Alex M. Azar II, at the end of April. Obstetrician-gynecologists, pediatricians, and family physicians are facing dramatic financial challenges leading to substantial layoffs and even practice closures.

By another estimate, as many as 60,000 physicians in family medicine may no longer be working in their practices by June because of the pandemic.

The faltering doctors groups reflect part of a broader decline in health care alongside the nations economic downturn. As people put off medical appointments and everything from hip replacements to routine mammograms, health spending dropped an annualized rate of 18 percent in the first three months of the year, according to recent federal data.

While Congress has rushed to send tens of billions of dollars to the hospitals reporting large losses and passed legislation to send even more, small physician practices in medicines least profitable fields like primary care and pediatrics are struggling to stay afloat. They dont have any wiggle room, said Dr. Lisa Bielamowicz, a co-founder of Gist Healthcare, a consulting firm.

None of the money allocated by lawmakers has been specifically targeted to the nations doctors, although the latest bill set aside funds for community health centers. Some funds were also set aside for small businesses, which would include many doctors practices, but many have faced the same frustration as other owners in finding themselves shut out of much of the funding available.

Federal officials have taken some steps to help small practices, including advancing Medicare payments and reimbursing doctors for virtual visits. But most of the relief has gone to the big hospital and physician groups. We have to pay special attention to these independent primary care practices, and were not paying special attention to them, said Dr. Farzad Mostashari, a former health official in the Obama administration, whose company, Aledade, works with practices like Autumn Road.

The hospitals are getting massive bailouts, said Dr. Christopher Crow, the president of Catalyst Health Network in Texas. Theyve really left out primary care, really all the independent physicians, he said.

Heres the scary thing as these practices start to break down and go bankrupt, we could have more consolidation among the health care systems, Dr. Crow said. That concerns health economists, who say the steady rise in costs is linked to the clout these big hospital networks wield with private insurers to charge high prices.

While the pandemic has wreaked widespread havoc across the economy, shuttering restaurants and department stores and throwing tens of millions of Americans out of work, doctors play an essential role in the health of the public. In addition to treating coronavirus patients who would otherwise show up at the hospital, they are caring for people with chronic diseases like diabetes and asthma.

Keeping these practices open is not about protecting the doctors livelihoods, said Michael Chernew, a health policy professor at Harvard Medical School. I worry about how well these practices will be able to shoulder the financial burden to be able to meet the health care needs people have, he said.

If practices close down, you lose access to a point of care, said Dr. Chernew, who was one of the authors of a new analysis published by the Commonwealth Fund that found doctors visits dropped by about 60 percent from mid-March to mid-April. The researchers used visit data from clients of a technology firm, Phreesia.

Nearly 30 percent of the visits were virtual as doctors rushed to offer telemedicine as the safest alternative for their staff and patients. Its remarkable how quickly it was embraced, said Dr. Ateev Mehrotra, a hospitalist and associate professor of health policy at Harvard Medical School, who was also involved in the study. But even with virtual visits, patient interaction was significantly lower.

Almost half of primary care practices have laid off or furloughed employees, said Rebecca Etz, an associate professor of family medicine at Virginia Commonwealth University and co-director of the Larry A. Green Center, which is surveying doctors with the Primary Care Collaborative, a nonprofit group. Many practices said they did not know if they had enough cash to stay open for the next month.

Pediatricians, which are among the lowest paid of the medical specialties, could be among the hardest hit. Federal officials used last years payments under the Medicare program to determine which groups should get the initial $30 billion in funds. Because pediatricians dont generally treat Medicare patients, they were not compensated for the decline in visits as parents chose not to take their children to the doctor and skipped their regular checkups.

This virus has the potential to essentially put pediatricians out of business across the country, said Dr. Susan Sirota, a pediatrician in Chicago who leads a network of a dozen pediatric practices in the area. Our waiting rooms are like ghost towns, she said.

Pediatricians have also ordered tens of thousands of dollars on vaccines for their patients at a time when vaccine rates have plunged because of the pandemic, and they are now working with the manufacturers to delay payments for at least a time. We dont have the cash flow to pay them, said Dr. Susan Kressly, a pediatrician in Warrington, Pa.

Even those practices that quickly ramped up their use of telemedicine are troubled. In Albany, Ga., a community that was an unexpected hot spot for the virus, Dr. Charles Gebhardt, a doctor who is treating some infected patients, rapidly converted his practice to doing nearly everything virtually. Dr. Gebhardt also works with Aledade to care for Medicare patients.

But the telemedicine visits are about twice as long as a typical office visit, Dr. Gebhardt said. Instead of seeing 25 patients a day, he may see eight. We will quickly go broke at this rate, he said.

Although he said the small-business loans and advance Medicare payments are a Godsend, and they will help us survive the next few months, he also said practices like his need to go back to seeing patients in person if they are to remain viable. Medicare will no longer be advancing payments to providers, and many of the small-business funding represents a short-term fix.

While Medicare and some private insurers are covering virtual visits, which would include telephone calls, doctors say the payments do not make up for the lost revenue from tests and procedures that help them stay in business. Telehealth is not the panacea and does not make up for all the financial losses, said Dr. Patrice Harris, the president of the American Medical Association.

To keep the practices open, Dr. Mostashari and others propose doctors who treat Medicare and Medicaid patients receive a flat fee per person.

Even more worrisome, doctors groups may not be delivering care to those who need it, said Dr. Mehrotra, the Harvard researcher, because the practices are relying on patients to get in touch rather than reaching out.

Some doctors are already voicing concerns about patients who do not have access to a cellphone or computer or may not be adept at working with telemedicine apps. Not every family has access to the technology to connect with us the right way, said Dr. Kressly, who said the transition to virtual care is making disparities worse.

Some patients may also still prefer traditional office visits. While the Rutledges appreciated the need for virtual visits, Kelli said there was less time to talk about other things.

Telehealth is more inclined to be about strictly what you are there for, she said.

Private equity firms and large hospital systems are already eying many of these practices in hopes of buying them, said Paul D. Vanchiere, a consultant who advises pediatric practices.

The vultures are circling here, he said. They know these practices are going to have financial hardship.

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How Small Physician Practices are Struggling to Survive During Coronavirus Pandemic - The New York Times

History says whoever can best handle coronavirus will win the election. That should worry Trump. – CNN

May 5, 2020

We've only seen a few elections since polling began where the incumbent was eligible to run for reelection and the economy wasn't clearly the most important issue, but these elections tell a consistent and worrisome message for President Donald Trump. Whoever is most trusted most on the non-economic issue is likely to win the election.

Trump probably wishes he had the type of polling Franklin Roosevelt had going into the 1944 election. By a 42-point margin in a National Opinion Research Center poll, Americans thought Roosevelt was better equipped to win World War II than Republican rival Thomas Dewey. Roosevelt would go on to win an unprecedented fourth term.

Trump likely would settle for the numbers George W. Bush had ahead of his successful 2004 re-election effort. Bush was more trusted than Democrat John Kerry on the Iraq war and terrorism. The final Fox News poll, for example, found that Bush was more trusted on Iraq by 6 points. The same poll had Bush up by 12 points on who would do a better job on terrorism.

But let's say the economy is viewed as being in better shape by the time of the election. A look at the 1952 and 1968 elections suggests that may not be enough for Trump.

Democratic incumbents Harry Truman in 1952 and Lyndon Johnson in 1968 didn't even run for re-election during the Korean War and Vietnam Wars respectively. The Republican candidates, Dwight Eisehower and Richard Nixon, were trusted by double digits in Gallup polling over the Democratic candidates, Adlai Stevenson and Hubert Humphrey, in those races to handle the war efforts. Republicans won both races.

The economy was strong ahead of both of these elections. Even so, the incumbent party lost the general election because they couldn't win on the big non-economic issue of the day.

Four years after Nixon took office, he was able to win a second term because he was trusted more on handling the Vietnam War by about 30 points than his Democratic opponent, George McGovern.

For 2020, these elections suggest Trump probably needs Americans to think he has a good handle on the coronavirus in order to beat Biden. Otherwise, he'll likely end up like Truman and Johnson: out of office.

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History says whoever can best handle coronavirus will win the election. That should worry Trump. - CNN

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