Category: Corona Virus

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R.I. COVID-19 cases increased by 928 last week, with 7 deaths - Providence Business News

Yomiuri Shimbun file photo The Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry in Tokyo

The Yomiuri Shimbun

20:46 JST,February 2, 2024

The Health, Labour and Welfare Ministry provided an update on Friday regarding the COVID-19 situation in Japan. According to the update, an average of 14.93 cases per designated medical institution were reported for the week of January 22 to 28, using data gathered from about 5,000 institutions nationwide. This reflects a 1.22-fold increase from the previous week, marking the 10th consecutive week that cases have risen.

Broken down by prefecture, Fukushima recorded the highest number of cases with 23.94, while Ishikawa, affected by the Noto Peninsula earthquake, also reported more than 20 cases.

Analyzing the age distribution of the cases, it was observed that approximately half of the infected individuals were 14 years old or younger. An official from the Health, Labour and Welfare Ministry suggested a potential connection between the uptick in infections and the conclusion of the school winter break.

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Alarming Surge in Japan's COVID-19 Cases; 10 Weeks Straight Increase, Half Aged 14 and Under - The Japan News

Universities across the state, including Cal State LA, are relaxing COVID-19 protocols in line with new orders from the California Department of Public Health (CDPH), a move that some students feel could lead to heightened exposure.

Once a state known for firm COVID-19 mandates, California is loosening recommendations, now advocating that faculty and students may return to campus just 24 hours after fever lets up and symptoms decline, so long as the individual wears a well-fitting mask.

The CDPH no longer recommends an isolation period for those who are asymptomatic and simply recommends that those individuals wear a mask while in public.

Additionally, negative tests will not be required to return to classes.

The changes come at a time when Cal State LA students are returning to classes following a winter break riddled with high levels of COVID-19 transmission and other respiratory illnesses, according to recent data from the L.A. County Public Health (LACDPH.)

Theater major Paulyn Sreekhwan was concerned about accidental exposures at times when people needed to remove their masks.

I feel like youre still contagious even after the fever breaks, she said. Even with a mask, what if youre eating lunch, youre taking [the mask] off, youre drinking water. Youre exposing yourself to other people, so I dont really agree with that.

Sreekhwan pointed out that it was strange the policy change was happening at a time when cases were higher than normal.

I would like to assume that people in the classroom are honest and that they would mask if they were positive and honor the policy, but I still feel iffy, she said.

Another student, fourth-year Koleene Martinez, said she felt that the new policy would be too easy to ignore and that it could make her feel more paranoid about getting sick on campus.

It doesnt really seem fair. I feel like you should quarantine at least five days. I feel like the 24 hour rule is way less. I know that we all have our jobs and school to get to, but at the same time, you could possibly infect people, she said, adding that as long as people are committed to masking preferably with an N95 surgical mask then she would feel safer.

Respiratory virus transmission and hospitalizations remain elevated in Los Angeles County following a spike in cases through the holiday season, prompting county health officials to ask residents to help limit exposures and take common sense precautions like masking while in a crowded environment, testing regularly and staying up-to-date on vaccinations and boosters.

And though key figures have started to trend slightly downward in recent weeks, public health data shows COVID-19 is still widely circulating in the county, with wastewater concentrations of the virus at 60% of last years winter peak, according to the LACDPH

COVID-19 hospitalizations also remain elevated, with an average of 787 COVID-positive patients per day for the week ending Jan. 12, a slight decrease from 834 the week prior. That same figure stood at just 289 in November.

LACDPH officials stated that the increase is likely driven in part by the rise of a new COVID-19 strain, dubbed JN.1.

Local data shows the variant is gaining dominance rapidly in Los Angeles County, and CDC modeling data predicts it accounts for 61% of sequenced specimens in Region 9, which includes California, for the two-week period ending Jan. 6, LADPH officials said.

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University adjusts to new relaxed COVID-19 rules - CSULA University Times

TORONTO New research published today says people who are homeless have high rates of COVID-19 reinfection. The St.

TORONTO New research published today says people who are homeless have high rates of COVID-19 reinfection.

The St. Michael's Hospital study found homeless people in Toronto who had COVID-19 were more than twice as likely to be reinfected as people who had housing.

Lead author Lucie Richard says people who are homeless are more exposed to the virus through crowded living conditions such as shelters.

They are also more likely than the general public to have underlying health conditions that make them more vulnerable to illness.

Richard says repeated COVID-19 infections could also make homeless people more susceptible to long COVID.

The study is published in the BMC Infectious Diseases journal.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 2, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

Nicole Ireland, The Canadian Press

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COVID-19 reinfection rates high among people who are homeless, Toronto study says - Powell River Peak

Representational image

The early days of the COVID-19 pandemic were ones thoroughly saturated with uncertainty. Thoughts of how the coronavirus could persist on surfaces for days on end kept us suspended in a near-constant state of anxiety. Many became terrified of frequenting public spaces, fearing that the virus would ambush anyone unfortunate enough to touch the invisible piece of "infected" public property.

And while we've achieved great strides in battling COVID-19 within the human body, this surface contamination issue doesnt exactly have a viable solution as of yet not one that doesnt require constant manual disinfection, at least. Fortunately, Finnish researchers are developing a groundbreaking solution: anti-viral surfaces designed to curb the spread of such viruses.

A recent study led by Professor Varpu Marjomki discovered that a specific resin ingredient, when embedded in plastics, significantly reduces the infectivity of coronaviruses on these surfaces, including the infamous 2019 SARS-CoV-2 pandemic-causing strain.

The team's research delves into the behaviour of viruses on various surfaces, studying their survival rates under different temperature and humidity conditions. Understanding these factors is crucial for designing effective antiviral solutions.

Being a ubiquitous material in our daily lives, researchers focused on plastic surfaces. Specifically comparing the viruses' survival on untreated plastic with resin-embedded plastic, they found that untreated plastic allowed viruses to remain infective for over two days, while the resin-infused surface neutralised them within 30 minutes, showcasing its impressive antiviral properties.

This innovation holds immense potential for diverse applications, from public spaces like restaurants and transportation to healthcare settings and everyday household items. Professor Marjomki also emphasises the potential of bio-based antivirals, readily available in Finland, for functionalising masks and surfaces.

This research is part of the BIOPROT project, a collaborative effort whose shared goal is to develop and deliver practical antiviral solutions, anticipating future pandemics and epidemics. In addition to surface treatments, the project also encompasses bio-based materials for masks and other protective equipment. All in all, this Finnish innovation promises to reduce the spread of viruses in everyday settings and contribute to a more secure and sustainable future for all.

The findings of this research have been published in Microbiology Spectrum and can be accessed here.

**

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Public Safety Gamechanger? Resin Kills Coronaviruses on Plastic Surfaces In Minutes: Study | Weather.com - The Weather Channel

Most of the world has moved on from the pandemic with vaccines and treatment widespread. Most of us arent wearing masks anymore. Most of us arent social distancing or quarantining or doing all of the things that were such hallmarks of life with COVID-19.

But there is a big group of people for whom the COVID-19 is anything but behind them: people suffering from long COVID. For them, life hasnt been the same since they contracted COVID-19, and Lygia Navarro reports they are disproportionately Latino.

Navarro is an independent journalist and contributor for Palabra, the nonprofit news outlet for the National Association of Hispanic Journalists. The Show spoke with her more about her reporting and the people she profiled in the rural, farming community of Yakima Valley, in Washington state.

Lygia Navarro

Lygia Navarro

LYGIA NAVARRO: So one of the long haulers who we spoke with was, she wanted to use the name Maria, which is not her real first name, because a lot of people feel very nervous about being public about being a long hauler. So she was infected with COVID and then she never recovered. So she, you know, started to develop really intense, full body pain, extreme exhaustion, discoloration of her hands, they turned purple. This is common with other long haulers, that happens to their hands and their feet. And so, you know, this is not just a small health nuisance.

It's really an all encompassing life-altering event, which also impacts her life in the sense that what she can do every day. So, you know, her kids had to adapt to her not being able to do everything for them that she used to do. She struggles with work some, and her family also early on really doubted what was going on with her. They thought that it was psychological, it was all in her head. And this is a common thing that we heard from other Latino long haulers, is that their communities often don't understand that it's a physical illness.

I want to ask you very straightforwardly like to give us a definition of long COVID because you've done a lot of reporting on it for this story. And I think a lot of people still see it as like this mysterious thing, but there is a real definition, right?

NAVARRO: There is. And I think it's really important to talk about that because people don't know enough about long COVID, including what it is. So I think a lot of people have it and don't realize that. So the World Health Organization's definition of long COVID is new or worsening health issues that last at least three months after a COVID infection. So that can be, it can be completely new symptoms, so it can be that you develop migraines and you've never had them before, after having had COVID. It can be that you already had diabetes but that your diabetes dramatically worsened. So those are a couple of examples, but there are over 200 symptoms that long haulers have reported while having with long COVID.

So a wide variety of symptoms. So let's talk a little bit about the challenges in that. For the people that you profiled in particular, there's a real challenge, it seems like in, in just even getting a diagnosis for folks, right?

NAVARRO: Huge challenge, huge challenge. This is something that's common among long haulers en masse. They have to, you know, suffer, go through a lot of testing that is all negative and then often they figure it out themselves. And so this is what happened with both of the long haulers who I profiled or who I followed in the story. Both of them understood that what was going on in their bodies had happened after having had COVID.

So both of them had to essentially propose the diagnosis to their own doctors or insist over and over and over, over again that the health issues that they were dealing with, which they've never had before COVID, were because of COVID. And for Maria, the woman who I spoke about a minute ago, you know, it is really detrimental that her doctors were not listening to her, her family doctor, you know, her regular practitioner tried to diagnose her with multiple sclerosis, which she doesn't have. Another specialist told her that if she didn't get better within a month that they were going to operate on her hip, she has never had hip problems. So, you know, it goes from the range of doctors being uneducated, which is kind of the best case scenario, to misdiagnosing and doing actual harm to people.

You know, something that we hear a lot about in long COVID is people who are told, oh, you're dealing with fatigue, you need to get more exercise, you're just deconditioned, or you know, you're out of breath, you have anxiety. And so people are told then to do exercise to push themselves physically, but that can actually make long haulers sicker, not just that it can, but it does.

So you're reporting something here as well that is sort of as of yet unreported and important, which is that long COVID is having a disproportionate impact on the Latino community in in particular. Tell us a little bit about that and the numbers that you uncovered.

NAVARRO: Yeah. So let me first say that the numbers are, they're hard to depend on, the numbers are hard to trust. They're hard to use as a real guide for what's happening with long COVID among Latinos because all of the statistics that exist thus far are not accurate. The federal data that's available is using a small sliver of the population. It's an online survey that's done semimonthly. And so the data that we get from that is that yes, Latinos are reporting having long COVID at a higher rate, 36% of Latinos have had or do have long COVID.

But part of that is that a lot of people do not realize that they have long COVID. So when you're talking about Latinos in particular, one of the other people who I spoke with for this story, who wanted to use the name Victoria, she figured out herself that she had long COVID, but she's never been able to get a doctor to diagnose it. But in addition to that, she sees so many people in her community having long COVID.

So first you have lack of diagnosis, right? Especially among Latinos because there is either, you know, a limited amount of time that doctors have with their patients. You know, we talk about like the average 15 minute visit and doctors are rushed and they don't, may not know their patients. Well, doctors don't have education to know what long COVID looks like and then sometimes what happens is stereotyping. So racism in medicine, you know, with doctors assuming, OK, here is a diabetic patient whose diabetes is really worsened. That's just because she's Latina, or here is another Latino patient who has developed high blood pressure. Well, that's just because cardiovascular disease is, is high among Latinos.

When I first started to report this story, some researchers and clinicians were kind of wondering aloud, well, what's the, what's the reason for this? You know, nobody thought that there was a genetic or, you know, a genetic ethnic reason. But what became clear, really pretty early on in the reporting was that this has a lot to do with who was protecting the country early in the pandemic. And that was people of color.

Let me ask you lastly, I know you are experiencing long COVID yourself. How has your own experience of this kind of played into your reporting on it?

NAVARRO: Well, in the first part, I think that it's motivated me to report on long COVID. You know, I still see that there is not enough reporting on long COVID period and it ties in with the drive to move back to normal, you know, to let's leave the pandemic behind us. And so if you don't report, you know, if you don't see media reporting on long COVID, you might think that it doesn't exist.

So that's the first part of it, you know, is that I have experienced for three years, this really catastrophic event in my health and in my life. And I wanted to tell other people's stories about that, especially these stories of you know, people who are already, you know, underserved and marginalized, who are really fighting to have to get help with it.

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Long COVID is disproportionately affecting Latinos. They're struggling to get diagnosed - KJZZ

David Colburn

REGIONAL- The COVID news is good for the North Country this week, as a declining number of hospitalizations has caused the Centers for Disease Control to lower the regions COVID activity level from medium to low. The CDC-designated health service area that includes St. Louis, Carlton, Cook, Itasca, Koochiching, Lake, and Pine counties had been one of the few remaining areas in the state with elevated levels of COVID activity in recent weeks, but hospital admissions dropped by almost 45 percent last week, taking the rate per 100,000 people down to 7.1, solidly below the 10 per 100,000 benchmark for the elevated CDC category. The northeast region remains well above the last hard statewide data reported by the Minnesota Department of Health on Jan. 8, which was 1.32 per 100,000. Thats in line with overall declines posted for the state and the nation last week, and better than the national rate of 8.01 hospitalizations per 100,000. Another measure in northeast Minnesota that had bucked the statewide trend was the level of the COVID virus in wastewater, but it finally fell in line last week, declining by 19.2 percent. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, noted the downward COVID trend in a podcast last Thursday. I do feel quite confident that we have, in fact, reached a recent peak in activity and are now starting to see declines, Osterholm said. There is still a lot of COVID transmission in our communities. I actually had a physician this past week that informed me that he lived on COVID Avenue, based on how many people in his neighborhood were currently affected. The good news is that while we are seeing lots of cases, the number is starting to drop. One statistic that hasnt seen a decline is the number of deaths attributed to COVID, Osterholm said. Deaths have continued to increase in the U.S., approaching nearly 1800 a week towards the end of December, more than 250 deaths a day. Because of the delays involved in obtaining death data, it could still take several weeks to see some apparent declines matching up with the declines in cases as of now. Osterholm contrasted the death toll and vaccination rates for COVID against those for influenza. If you look at COVID, it is killing Americans at a rate almost three times higher than influenza, he said. Yet weve seen influenza vaccine coverage this season approaching almost 50 percent among children and adults, while uptake of the latest dose for COVID sits at roughly eight percent in children and 21 percent in adults. So clearly, we have a significant challenge here. MDH data clearly shows that the 65 and older segment of the population is bearing the brunt of the winter COVID surge. Hospitalization rates for this group were at a staggering 97.06 per 100,000 on Jan. 7, more than ten times higher than the overall statewide rate of 9.47, and those over 85 were far and away the most likely in that age group to die from COVID. Native Americans had the highest hospitalization rates of any ethnic group throughout the month of December, although in early January the rate came down to about the same as Blacks, at about 11 per 100,000. No tripledemic Osterholm also took time in his podcast to dispute the suggestion made in many media circles that the country has been experiencing a triple epidemic of COVID, influenza, and RSV. While health officials have repeatedly talked about the challenges of all three illnesses being active at the same time and the potential impact on the health care system, the data simply doesnt support the notion of a tripledemic. A triple epidemic means that were seeing all three of the viruses at epidemic levels, and that just hasnt happened, Osterholm said. RSV and influenza cases and deaths have been well within the range wed expect them to be at this point in the respiratory virus season. In Minnesota, influenza activity has remained at the minimal level throughout the entire influenza season we are the only state that has experienced this very, very quiet flu season. This has ultimately been a very average flu season in terms of the amount of activity and mortality weve seen.

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COVID on the decline in county from January peak - Tower Timberjay News

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Four years have passed since the first case of Covid was confirmed in the UK - the beginning of a pandemic that would change how we all lived in our lives and kill more than 200,000 people.

After two years of intermittent lockdowns and restrictions on what people could and could not do, in February 2022 the government lifted all legal Covid rules as members of the public were asked to practice safe and responsible behaviours.

People were no longer required to wear masks in public places, limit the number of people they could see, or provide negative Covid tests to enter some venues as had been the case during previous lockdowns.

Experts say its important for people to do what they can to reduce transmission of Covid, including getting a vaccine for those who are eligible

(PA)

After most people got vaccinated against the virus, the UK began to follow a living with Covid strategy as health officials sought to manage the infection like other respiratory illnesses such as the cold and flu.

But while virus restrictions have been lifted, Covid continues circulating in the UK. But just how prevalent is it, how is it affecting the NHS and are people still dying from the illness?

The estimated prevalence of Covid in England and Scotland was 2.3 per cent ( around 1,352,000 people) according to the most recently available official data from 10 January 2024.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) and UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) winter infection study estimates the number of people who have Covid because it is no longer mandatory for people to report their test results if they get infected.

The most recent report said the prevalence of Covid in England and Scotland had decreased in the TWO weeks leading up to 10 January 2024.

It was down from 4.1 per cent on 27 December 2023 and remains much lower than the rate seen during previous waves of the virus.

Professor Steven Riley, director general for data and surveillance at UKHSA said the figures confirmed the early signs of a decline in Covid across the country.

But he warned that this did not mean the risk of becoming ill with Covidhas gone away.

A view of the National Covid Memorial Wall in London

(EPA)

In previous years, we have sometimes seen a decline in early January followed by an increase over the next few weeks, so it remains important that we continue to do what we can to reduce transmission, he said.

Those people who are most at risk of severe illness from Covid can still receive a seasonal vaccination until the end of this month, and we urge anyone eligible who has not already done so to come forward.

Far fewer people are being admitted to hospital with Covid than during previous years, although a significant are still ending up on wards for treatment.

According to official data, 3,790 people were admitted to hospital with Covid between 12 and 19 January.

This is compared with a peak of 38,000 people in the week to 20 January 2021.

In the week ending 12 January 2024, there were 388 deaths involving Covid in England and Wales and 277 deaths due to Covid, according to official data.

The most deaths reported on a single day at the height of the pandemic was on 19 January 2021, when 1,490 fatalities were logged.

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Four years after first Covid case in UK, how widespread is coronavirus now? - The Independent

California's relaxed COVID isolation guidance marks a milestone in public health messaging about the pandemic: Even newly infected people no longer need to isolate if they have no symptoms, or they can leave home sooner if the illness starts improving quickly.

California's stance is even looser than that of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which advises isolating for at least five days after the onset of symptoms or, if asymptomatic, after the first positive test.

The changing recommendations, which have gained attention as the winter COVID wave shows signs of cresting in California, underscores the evolving nature of the coronavirus threat.

But they come with one vital warning. Health officials say infected people who venture out need to mask up. If they don't, they could easily transmit the coronavirus to others.

Read more: 'If it's COVID, Paxlovid'? For many, it should be easier to get. Here's what to know about antivirals

Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, a UC San Francisco infectious disease expert, said he thinks California's new isolation guidance makes sense, but "the only sort-of worry I have is that people are not going to do the mask part, but they're just going to focus on the fact that you don't have to stay home for five days.

"People focus on what has changed, but they don't focus on what hasn't changed," Chin-Hong said. "Masks should really be part of normal life, like if you're sick or you have symptoms, put the mask on regardless of what you have; it could be COVID, a cold, RSV, influenza."

The guidance says masks should be well-fitting and have optimal filtration; ideally, an N95, KN95 or KF94 model.

Read more: California relaxes COVID isolation guidance. What you need to know

It's also important that those who do have symptoms test themselves.

"Some days, it might be an allergy, but some days it might be that you did pick up COVID," said Dr. Daisy Dodd, an infectious diseases specialist with Kaiser Permanente Orange County.

California's new guidance says that people who have COVID-19 symptoms need to isolate and test themselves. An early negative test may not mean the person doesn't have COVID; the CDC suggests testing again two and four days after the onset of symptoms.

Those who test positive but remain asymptomatic need not isolate but must wear a high-quality mask when around others for 10 days after the first positive test.

Those who do develop symptoms such as a cough, sore throat, runny nose or body aches can end their isolation period once their symptoms are mild and improving, provided they havent had a fever for 24 hours without using medication. Still, they need to wear a mask for 10 days after the onset of symptoms.

Whether symptomatic or not, those with COVID can stop wearing a mask before 10 days if they test negative on two consecutive rapid tests, taken at least one day apart.

Los Angeles County also recommends waiting for a negative rapid test before leaving isolation within the 10 days following the first symptoms. A negative rapid test result is not needed on Day 11 or after.

Some experts have criticized California's looser isolation guidance. On social media, Michael Mina, chief science officer for eMed and an epidemiologist formerly with the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, wrote that it "essentially encourages" infectious people to "return to work/school & infect others."

"It is outrageous," Mina wrote. "They advise: if no fever, but blazing positive rapid test, no worries, go back to work/school!"

Mina suggested that a better approach would be to ask people to isolate for a period "no more and no less" than they are a risk to others a decision that can be made when the person tests negative on a rapid test as they recover. Rapid test results are "real personalized empirical data correlated with being infectious," Mina wrote.

Others note that the new state guidance hasn't resulted in a severe public backlash. And many residents haven't been following official guidance for a long time anyway, thinking it doesn't make sense to stay home if they feel fine.

"That's part of the thing: People are doing this anyway, so you might as well give them best practices," Chin-Hong said, stressing mask use for those infected.

Read more: Here's why some high-risk patients aren't getting drugs to combat COVID

The guidance, issued Jan. 9, has been echoed by local officials in recent weeks amid a significant wave of coronavirus infections. State and national data posted by the CDC suggest that levels of the virus in sewage are at the highest point since the first Omicron wave two winters ago.

The wave of illness has been noticeable in causing more workers to call in sick. Many describe miserable illnesses with intensely sore throats that feel like they're studded with shards of glass, coughing fits that leave them winded and body aches that make them feel as if they've been hit by a truck.

California clinicians this winter have noted patients who tested positive for COVID-19 and flu at the same time.

Notably, there are fewer incidents of severe acute COVID-19 illness than there were in the early years of the pandemic. New COVID-19 hospitalizations are at the lowest points for a winter season since the pandemic began. It's likely that vaccinations, natural immunity from past infections and the development of medications such as Paxlovid have made the disease much less risky. However, any bout with the illness presents the risk of developing into long COVID.

Lower levels of severe illness were a big part of California's rationale for loosening the isolation guidance. Prior guidelines were set when Californians "had little immunity" and there were a "large number of hospitalizations and deaths that overwhelmed our healthcare systems," officials wrote. "We are now at a different point in time with reduced impacts from COVID-19 compared to prior years."

Read more: With COVID on the rise, your at-home test may be taking longer to show a positive result

California's winter wave appears to have either plateaued or started to decline.

For the week to Jan. 20, there were 2,975 new COVID-19 hospitalizations, down 10% from the prior week. The seasonal high thus far was 3,746 for the week that ended Dec. 30. This was lower than the prior winter's peak of 5,260 during the last week of 2022.

The first two winters of the pandemic were the most deadly for California and strained hospital systems. The peak for new hospitalizations during the first winter was 16,663, for the week that ended Jan. 9, 2021.

In Los Angeles County, virus levels in wastewater appear to be plateauing. For the week that ended Jan. 13, the most recent available, levels reached 67% of last winter's peak.

However, in the San Jose area, virus levels as of Jan. 21 were at their highest level for the winter, comparable to the first Omicron wave two years ago.

Statewide data from Kaiser Permanente indicate that COVID-19 may be plateauing, flu is on the way up, and respiratory syncytial virus might be starting to come down, Dodd said.

In L.A. County, flu and RSV levels have lowered but remain elevated, the Department of Public Health said.

Dodd continues to recommend COVID-19, flu and RSV immunizations.

While COVID-19 has become less deadly, it remains a significant public health challenge. Since Oct. 1, at least 24,000 COVID-19 deaths have been reported nationally, including at least 1,900 in California.

"COVID-19 continues to cause more hospitalizations than influenza and respiratory syncytial virus," the CDC said in a statement last week.

Flu is also playing a significant role at emergency rooms.

"Right now, more people are going to emergency departments to get care and being diagnosed with flu than COVID-19," the CDC said.

Sign up for Essential California for news, features and recommendations from the L.A. Times and beyond in your inbox six days a week.

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

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In a milestone, California says those with COVID-19 can leave home sooner but there's a catch - Yahoo News

The researchers were referring to early coronavirus patients in late 2019 whose home addresses were used to show that the cases were geographically centred around the market.

02:03

Mystery illness outbreak in Wuhan, China

Mystery illness outbreak in Wuhan, China

Despite their criticism of data analysis methods, the statisticians did not offer theories about how or where the pandemic started.

Neither [the 2022 study] nor our statistical analysis could be used to support or reject the zoonosis hypothesis, they said, referring to an infectious disease that jumps from an animal to humans.

The paper was published in the peer-reviewed Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society on January 16. It was first uploaded to the preprint server arXiv in August 2022 ahead of peer review, one month after the 2022 study described by Stoyan and Chiu as a prominent study was published.

Through mapping, statistical analysis and analysis based on the distribution of the citys population density, they found that early cases lived near to and centred on the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan.

They also found that early patients who did not have links with the market resided significantly closer to the market than those who worked there, indicating that they had been exposed to the virus at or near the Huanan market.

Lead author of the 2022 study Michael Worobey said he was working with a colleague on a scientific response to the paper written by Chiu and his then-PhD supervisor Stoyan.

Stoyan and Chius study is riddled with errors, both factual and statistical, said Worobey, a professor and department head of ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Arizona.

China delayed Covid-19 gene sequences publication, US congressional panel says

Scientists have been trying to find out its precise role in the outbreak, as the source of the initial transmission of the virus or as an amplifier of the outbreak. Understanding how the coronavirus emerged is considered key to preventing the next pandemic.

Many of the early cases were associated with the Huanan market, but a similar number of cases were associated with other markets, and some were not associated with any markets, the report said.

The joint missions report said transmission in the wider community in December 2019, along with the presence of early cases unrelated to the Huanan market, could suggest the market was not the original source of the outbreak.

In their recent paper, Stoyan and Chiu said the assumption that a centroid [centre point] of early case locations or another simply constructed point is the origin of an epidemic is unproved and that a statistical test used to conclude that no other location than the seafood market can be the origin is flawed.

Chiu said that even if the seafood market could be established as the centre of the cases, it did not imply causality.

We do not agree that the centre location of early cases entails where the explosive outbreak started because the source of the infectious disease could be moving, he said.

Chiu and Stoyan mapped out the residential addresses of 155 early coronavirus cases used in the 2022 study and found that other landmarks could also be at their centre.

In the context of statistics, the Wanda Plaza may be more suspicious than the market, which is neither more nor less likely to be the origin than the other landmarks, they wrote.

They said that in terms of statistics the market is not more likely to be the origin when compared to other nearby landmarks.

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[The 2022 study] excluded all landmarks because they claimed that no other location except the Huanan market [is] clearly epidemiologically linked to early Covid-19 cases, Chiu and Stoyan wrote.

In other words, according to [their] approach, if epidemiological links can be found between the cases and any of these landmarks, then these landmarks will be equally likely to be the origin of the pandemic, they wrote.

They said possible alternative centres could include the Wuhan Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, the Hankou railway station and the Wanda Plaza shopping complex, noting that they do not hypothesise that any of these landmarks is the origin of the pandemic.

We do not aim to refute any hypothesis, whether zoonosis or lab leak. While we pointed out the statistical analysis in the previous study was unconvincing, we did not prove or disprove its conclusion, Chiu said.

From the point of view of a statistician, the origin of Covid-19 remains an unanswered question.

02:50

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Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist and medical statistician at the School of Public Health at the University of Hong Kong and who was not involved in either study, said he found Stoyan and Chius argument compelling. He said they do not provide any inference on where the pandemic emerged.

I think it would be very difficult now to find any new data relating to the origins of Covid-19, but as explained by Stoyan and Chiu we cannot draw strong inferences from the data that are available, Cowling said.

Cowling said any analysis of the early cases, which were all severe, might not capture the full picture of the early epidemic.

Only about 5 per cent of Covid-19 cases were severe at that time, so for every case that was identified probably there were at least another 19 cases that were not identified. In addition, not every severe case was identified.

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He outlined the two main hypotheses about the role of the Huanan market.

There is a hypothesis that the earliest human infections occurred here (in October or November [2019]), perhaps in people who worked in the market or frequently visited the market, and that is why the earliest recorded cases (in December) were clustered around the market, Cowling said.

A separate hypothesis is that the earliest human infections occurred elsewhere, but there were just a small number of cases in the early weeks of the epidemic until one of the cases went to the Huanan market and caused a superspreading event in the market, and that is why so many of the detected early cases were linked to the market.

See more here:

Researchers contest early findings that Wuhan was epicentre of Covid pandemic - South China Morning Post