Category: Corona Virus

The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine, forecasts there will most likely be about 389,087 deaths -- or 78% more fatalities -- by February 1.

The model's best-case scenario projects 314,000 deaths by then if all Americans use masks. There could be more than 477,000 deaths if mask mandates are eased, it projects.

The data show the pandemic increasing in younger populations -- and thus fewer deaths than a previous forecast. That model, released five days ago, projected about 395,000 deaths by February 1.

"We expect deaths to stop declining and begin increasing in the next one to two weeks," researchers with the institute said. "The winter surge appears to have begun somewhat later than the surge in Europe. Daily deaths will reach over 2,000 a day in January even with many states reimposing mandates before the end of the year."

21 states reach record 7-day average of new cases

As of Thursday, the nation is averaging 52,345 new cases a day, up 16% from the previous week, a trend that concerns health experts as we head into the cooler months.

"This is a very ominous sign. I think we're in for a pretty bad fall and winter," said Dr. Peter Hotez, professor and dean of tropical medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine.

"This is the time when we could be entering one of the worst periods of our epidemic and one of our worst periods in modern American public health," he said. "I'm very worried for the nation."

Thirty-five states are showing increases in new Covid-19 cases greater than 10% over the last week compared to the prior week. In seven states, cases are up less than 10%.

Only eight states -- Alabama, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Texas and Vermont -- are showing decreases in new cases compared to the previous week.

Since Sunday, 21 states have hit their peak 7-day average of new cases since the pandemic began, according to Johns Hopkins data, those being Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

That kind of spread is "quite concerning," Dr. Anthony Fauci said Thursday on ABC's "Good Morning America."

"The issue is that as we enter, as we are now, in the cooler season of the fall, and ultimately the colder season of the winter, you don't want to be in that compromised position where your baseline daily infection is high and you are increasing as opposed to going in the other direction," Fauci said.

"We need to think about what we need to do as individuals," she said, "and how each of the decisions that we make can actually contribute to bringing this pandemic to an end."

Herd immunity is not the way out of pandemic, experts say

Wisconsin reported 3,747 new Covid-19 cases on Thursday -- a daily record, according to the state's Department of Health Services. That prompted Gov. Tony Evers to urge residents to help get the spread under control by staying home and wearing face coverings when out.

"The longer it takes for everyone to take this virus seriously, the longer it will take to get our economy and our communities back on track," Evers said at a news conference.

Arkansas, Illinois, Michigan, North Carolina and Ohio also reported their highest single-day totals on Thursday, though Michigan's data included a backlog of cases.

And Florida reported 3,356 cases on Thursday, the 11th day this month that the state Department of Health reported at least 2,200 new cases in a single day, according to CNN's tally.

Vaccine is the best weapon, expert says

Frieden was responding to recent efforts to promote herd immunity as an answer to Covid-19. The idea is being pushed by those eager to stop the economic damage the pandemic has caused.

White House senior administration officials, in a call with reporters Monday, discussed a controversial declaration written by scientists that advocates such an approach.

But the idea is "a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence" that risks "significant morbidity and mortality across the whole population," 80 scientists from around the world wrote in an open letter.

"Any infection anywhere is potentially a threat somewhere else because even if you feel fine and get over it with no problems, no long-term consequences, you might spread it to someone who dies from it. And that's what we're seeing all over the country," Frieden said.

It is impossible to keep only the vulnerable protected from the spread, Frieden said. And letting the virus run rampant would likely lead to recurring epidemics because there is no evidence that people are protected long-term after they have been infected, according to the letter.

The best way to achieve widespread immunity, Frieden said, will be through a vaccine.

"The concept (of herd immunity) really comes from vaccines," Frieden said. "When you vaccinate enough people, the disease stops spreading, and that might be 60%, 80%, 90% for different diseases."

Frieden's comments were echoed Thursday by the WHO's Van Kerkhove, who said that allowing the virus to spread for the sake of herd immunity would lead to "unnecessary cases" and "unnecessary deaths."

"This is not a strategy for this virus," she said, "because there is so much that we can do."

CNN's Maggie Fox, Amanda Watts, Shelby Lin Erdman, Christina Maxouris Raja Razek, Lauren Mascarenhas, Jennifer Henderson, Rebekah Riess and Gisela Crespo contributed to this report.

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Covid-19 deaths will rise almost 80% by February, researchers foresee - CNN

More than 700 Americans die each day of COVID-19. If case counts continue to rise into the winter, that number could nearly triple, one forecast projects. Mark Felix/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

More than 700 Americans die each day of COVID-19. If case counts continue to rise into the winter, that number could nearly triple, one forecast projects.

Coronavirus cases are rising rapidly in many states as the U.S. heads into the winter months. And forecasters predict staggering growth in infections and deaths if current trends continue.

It's exactly the kind of scenario that public health experts have long warned could be in store for the country, if it did not aggressively tamp down on infections over the summer.

"We were really hoping to crater the cases in preparation for a bad winter," says Tara Smith, a professor of epidemiology at Kent State University. "We've done basically the opposite."

After hitting an all-time high in July, cases did drop significantly, but the U.S. never reached a level where the public health system could truly get a handle on the outbreak.

Now infections are on the rise again.

The U.S. is averaging more than 52,000 new cases a day (the highest it's been since mid-August), driven by ballooning outbreaks across the country's interior, especially in the Midwest, the Great Plains and the West

Contributing to this rise is the return of students to campus, resistance to mandates on social distancing and mask wearing, and more people spending time in restaurants and other indoor settings, Smith says.

Dr. Michael Mina, a professor at Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, compares the situation to a growing forest fire with small sparks all over the U.S. that will gain strength as the weather turns colder.

"We are likely to see massive explosions of cases and outbreaks that could potentially make what we've seen so far look like it hasn't been that much," says Mina.

Nearly 400,000 deaths by February?

A forecast from one of the country's leading coronavirus modeling groups projects more than 170,000 people could die from COVID-19 between now and Feb. 1, bringing the pandemic's overall death toll to nearly 390,000.

"Unfortunately, in the United States, it's still the first wave of the outbreak," says Ali Mokdad, professor of health metrics sciences at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, which developed the model.

The model forecasts three different scenarios to reflect the potential impact of policies and people's behavior on outcomes. The worst assumes social distancing mandates continue to be rolled back and projects nearly 483,000 cumulative deaths by Feb. 1. The rosiest scenario assumes communities reimpose such mandates when deaths reach a certain level per capita and that nearly everyone wears masks. In that case, cumulative deaths could still reach nearly 315,000.

Currently the U.S. averages over 700 deaths a day. IHME projects it could rise to more than 2,000 a day by mid-January, rivaling the most fatal days in the spring.

So far, Mokdad says the data clearly show the U.S. is stuck in a reactive cycle: when cases spike in their community, people change their behavior significantly they stay home more and wear masks, even in places where it's not required.

Once the situation improves, people return to their previous behavior.

"We are on like a roller coaster in every location in the United States," says Mokdad. "We bring cases down, then we let down our guard. But this is a deadly virus you cannot give it a chance to circulate."

And cold weather could play a role. In the Southern hemisphere, countries saw a rise in cases in the recent cold months, even with a lot of social distancing and many people wearing masks, says Mokdad, which indicates that "there is a seasonality factor" with COVID-19 that mimics pneumonia.

High levels of circulating virus

Even places that have already come back from devastating outbreaks remain vulnerable to a resurgence over the winter, says Lauren Ancel Meyers, a professor at the University of Texas, Austin who directs the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium.

Outbreaks can be seeded when people cluster in bars, such as this one in Sturgis, S.D., during the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in August. Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images hide caption

Meyers notes that even in Texas a state where a summer surge helped drive the cumulative death toll to more than 17,000 the virus is much more widespread than it was during the spring. This is true in many parts of the country.

"Even though things look sort of flat from the perspective of which way the trends are going, the level at which we're flat is still an awful lot of virus circulating in our communities," she says, although the hope is those communities may be more responsive now to taking precautions if cases spike.

Her group's model currently projects a cumulative 234,684 deaths by Nov. 9, but does not look any further ahead.

"We understand so much about how this virus spreads," says Meyers. "What we don't know is what behaviors will be and what decisions people will make in the coming months."

That projection is similar to what researchers at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst predict in the COVID-19 ForecastHub, an "ensemble model" merging more than 30 different COVID-19 models.

It predicts about 234,633 total deaths by Nov 7.

"There are sort of opposing forces that are acting on what we might see," says University of Massachusetts, Amherst professor Nicholas Reich, whose lab runs the ensemble model.

"On the one hand, we know that people will be spending more time inside and that has the potential to increase transmission," he says. "On the flip side, people are in general being more careful."

But Reich says there are just too many uncertainties to forecast beyond a month: "In my mind, that's sort of the limit of reliable predictability," he says.

The choice

While the U.S. outbreak can be described as having different "waves" one in the spring, another in the summer public health experts say that does not fully capture how the pandemic has washed unevenly over the country throughout the year.

"A better way of thinking about it is a wave that went into a pool and in that pool it's sloshing around," says Dr. Roger Shapiro, a professor at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health. "Wherever it hasn't been yet, it's going to go, and the place where it has already been it could go back."

Estimates vary, but the vast majority of the U.S. population has not been infected, which means most communities are still at risk of big outbreaks, he says.

Strict adherence to mask wearing and decreasing indoor gatherings could help avert the worst wintertime COVID-19 scenarios. But it's not certain that community leaders have the political will to impose such restrictions.

Mina says he anticipates states will continue to open up just as transmissibility of the virus increases and more people spend time inside, creating "a perfect storm."

"Will it be that we close down again fully?" Mina asks. "Or will it be that we choose a lot of infections? If that's the case, we still haven't done a really good job at figuring out how to keep vulnerable people safe."

But COVID-19 modeler Nicholas Reich notes the dire predictions are only that our best guess. He says the winter could look very different if Americans take precautions seriously.

"The optimism that we can take from this is that human behavior can change this," he says. "We can bend and flatten the curve."

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How Many COVID Deaths Could US See This Winter? Here's What Experts Project : Shots - Health News - NPR

Need to stay updated on coronavirus news in Texas? Our evening roundup will help you stay on top of the day's latest updates. Sign up here.

Hospitals in some parts of the state are filling with coronavirus patients, alarming health officials who say Texas could be on the brink of another surge after a relative plateau in September.

The number of hospitalized coronavirus patients has swung upward in parts of the state including West Texas, the Dallas-Fort Worth area, the Panhandle and El Paso, where hospitalizations have reached an all-time high and the mayor warned of an unprecedented number of new cases.

Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins this week upped the areas coronavirus threat level to red the highest risk as more patients are being admitted to hospitals with COVID-19 and as infections have climbed, including among school-aged children.

Unfortunately, we are currently going in the wrong direction, Jenkins said.

Experts blame social events like birthday parties and game day gatherings for the recent upticks, and they say there is widespread fatigue for following stringent guidelines to wear masks, practice social distancing and avoid crowded indoor spaces. The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention cited small family gatherings as an increasing threat this week.

A wave of infections and hospitalizations swept Texas this summer, overwhelming hospitals along the U.S.-Mexico border. Officials worry another flare-up could loom just as Texans prepare to celebrate the holidays.

We dont have any identified hot spots or large outbreaks. We just have lots and lots of community transmission, said Casie Stoughton, director of Amarillo Public Health, which also upgraded its local threat level to red this week.

There were at least 4,263 COVID-19 patients in Texas hospitals Thursday, according to the Department of State Health Services, which is still far short of the more than 10,000 Texans who were hospitalized for the virus in July.

As Texans enter the eighth month since cases first appeared in the state, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has allowed areas where less than 15% of hospitalized patients have the coronavirus to reopen bars at half their capacity, if local officials allow it, and to have more patrons in establishments like amusement parks and movie theaters.

So far, major counties like Dallas, Harris and Travis have been reluctant to loosen restrictions meant to tamp down the spread of a virus that has claimed more than 16,800 lives in Texas and sent unemployment claims skyrocketing.

McLennan County Judge Scott Felton allowed bars to reopen this week over the advice of the local health authority, who said the area remained a hot spot and that a bar is the worst situation imaginable when considering transmission.

Not all parts of the state are seeing an increase in hospitalized coronavirus patients. The most recent upticks are generally concentrated in regions that avoided the worst of the pandemic this summer.

Places that had not gone through their big summer wave are now experiencing waves. Thats one pattern were seeing, said Dr. Luis Ostrosky, a professor of infectious disease with McGovern Medical School at UTHealth and Memorial Hermann-Texas Medical Center.

One reason is pandemic fatigue, leading fewer people to wear masks or practice social distancing, he said. Theyre not seeing people get sick around them, and theyre just starting to be a little bit more permissive, Ostrosky said.

Lubbock has more COVID-19 hospitalizations than its ever had, and at least one hospital is full. North-central Texas has seen coronavirus hospitalizations increase by about 30% since September, said Stephen Love, president of the Dallas-Fort Worth Hospital Council.

When Dr. Robert Hancock, president of the Texas College of Emergency Physicians, recently tried to transfer a patient out of an Oklahoma hospital for specialized care, he could not find a facility in North Texas that had an open ICU bed with staff to support it. The patient ultimately had to stay at the Oklahoma hospital with doctors and nurses left to do the best we can, said Hancock, an emergency room physician practicing in Oklahoma, Amarillo and in the Dallas-Fort Worth region.

While hospitals might have open beds or be able to quickly double their intensive care unit capacity, he is concerned they may not have the staff needed to contend with a surge.

Many of the hospitalized patients are older and sicker, and are potentially being inadvertently infected by younger family members who have resumed school or social activities, according to health officials and doctors.

Hancock, for example, said he put a lady on a vent the other night that hadnt left her house since [the pandemic] started.

But her family members all come over to see her. So undoubtedly it was one of the family members that brought it to her, he said.

I honestly expect it to get a lot worse, he said.

In Lubbock home to Texas Tech University and Lubbock Christian University health officials say the increase in hospitalizations of mostly older residents has lagged a few weeks behind when they saw an uptick in infections among teenagers and young adults.

That mirrors what happened earlier this summer, when there was a spike in cases associated with bars reopening, said Katherine Wells, the citys director of public health.

That moved a little bit to the older population, then things went down again, she said. The resumption of classes has caused another increase larger than this summer that officials are now seeing move to the older population, she said.

She worries about the climbing infections and hospitalizations going into flu season which could further strain hospitals and how they could limit the ability of Lubbock hospitals to act as a regional hub for patients in tiny community hospitals between Albuquerque and Dallas that need specialized or more advanced care.

Dr. Ron Cook, the city of Lubbocks health authority and a professor at Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center, said people are tired of being cooped up and less fearful of the virus than they might have been in its early months. Theres been an increasingly lackadaisical approach to safety precautions, there are people who refuse to wear masks and he thinks some assume were three-fourths of the way over this because businesses can open at 75% capacity. Health experts say wearing a mask can help prevent the spread of the virus.

Not to have a Game of Thrones theme, but winter is coming, he said, evoking a well-known line from the television show. I'm concerned about that because it pushes people indoors and then our spread is worse.

Compared with the spring, more health workers have been sickened by the virus, Cook said.

Two hours north, in Amarillo, representatives from the citys two major hospitals told officials this week that their facilities were stressed by a high rate of viral spread in the community.

The Northwest Texas Healthcare System had 50 employees quarantined Wednesday because they had contracted the virus or had likely exposure, said Dr. Brian Weis, the hospitals chief medical officer.

Every morning this week, we have had patients waiting in our emergency room for a bed, meaning that we do not have the immediate capacity to get them into an inpatient bed, Weis told city leaders this week.

Another 69 employees from nearby BSA Hospital were also quarantining, said Dr. Michael Lamanteer, its chief medical officer.

Our folks are less at risk of getting COVID-19 in the hospital than they are in the community at this point, Lamanteer said. Nearly 30% of his hospitals patients were admitted with COVID-19, he said.

Disclosure: The Texas College of Emergency Physicians and Texas Tech University have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

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Texas coronavirus hospitalizations are up as some fear another surge - The Texas Tribune

CHICAGO It appears a second surge of coronavirus is beginning in Chicago, the citys top doctor said Thursday.

Officials have long said they were worried about the potential for a second spike of COVID-19 in the fall. It appears Chicago could be in the early stages of such a spike, as the city is seeing sharp increases in new cases and its positivity rate.

The numbers are of grave concern, said Dr. Allison Arwady, head of the Chicago Department of Public Health. Arwady said Chicagoans need to get serious again about preventing COVID-19 spread and should wear masks, social distance and return to only seeing people in their immediate household or coronavirus bubble.

I am worried that this could be the beginning of this second surge that everybody has been talking about, Arwady said during a Thursday livestream. This could be what folks have been concerned about. And now is the time to double down on the things that have helped keep this in control, broadly, to date.

The surge isnt limited to Chicago: Illinois as a whole has seen bumps in its positivity rate and daily new cases.

The state reported a record 4,015 new cases Thursday, its highest one-day case total yet. That brought the total number of confirmed cases in Illinois to 331,620.

The state also reported 53 deaths during the past day, including 11 people in Cook County. At least 9,127 people have died from COVID-19 in Illinois.

Similarly, Chicagos numbers are rising sharply. An average of 442 cases are being reported in the city per day a 32 percent increase from just one week ago.

While part of the uptick in new cases is due to increased testing, officials have said that doesnt explain everything and the numbers do show increased spread of coronavirus.

For example, Chicagos positivity rate has risen to 4.5 percent, a .3 percentage point increase since last week but the positivity rate should have fallen as more testing was done, not gone up, Arwady said.

And daily new cases in the city are up 32 percent from one week ago, but testing has only increased 16 percent, Arwady said.

The problem here is that yes, we are doing more testing and that is good and that is progress but, nevertheless, we are seeing real increases here, Arwady said during a Thursday livestream.

Similarly, Illinois seven-day positivity rate has risen to 4.9 percent, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from one week ago.

These numbers are indicating a concerning direction, Gov. JB Pritzker said during a Wednesday news conference.

And though the state reported about 7.5 percent fewer tests Thursday 67,086 compared to 72,491 one week ago new cases were up 31.2 percent compared to one week ago.

In Chicago, the spike has known no boundaries: New cases are being reported in every ZIP code, and there have been significant increases in all racial/ethnic and age groups, Arwady said.

Arwady said it appears to be peoples actions that are driving the surge. People feel comfortable around small groups of family and friends, for example, so they let down their guard but a significant amount of spread is happening in those small gatherings.

But in places where people feel less safe, theyre being more cautious and there hasnt been significant spread, Arwady said: For example, theres been no significant spread attributed to the CTA because people feel more nervous on it, so theyre better about social distancing and masking.

It appears people who were sick are also letting down their guard, she said. An estimated 15-20 percent of Chicagoans have had coronavirus by now, Arwady said, but even those who have been sick need to keep following safety guidelines since they could become re-infected.

I think people are getting COVID fatigue, Arwady said. I think this is real, that people are feeling like theyre tired of wearing their masks, theyre tired of social distancing and theyre often letting their guard down.

The doctor urged people even those who have already had coronavirus to keep taking safety precautions, like keeping 6 feet from others and wearing a mask. People should not gather or, if they do, they should keep taking safety steps like masking.

Its getting to be a more dangerous time for COVID, which means its not the time to be relaxing those behaviors, Arwady said. And particularly if you have somebody in your household or somebody in your bubble who has an underlying condition or is older, is over 60, you need to be especially careful. This is not the year to have your traditional, large Thanksgiving gathering nor to travel.

If there are interactions that youre having with folks that are not in your household, in your close bubble already, now is a good time to be dialing back on some of those activities.

Despite the growing spread of coronavirus, it doesnt appears deaths or COVID-19-related hospitalizations are up yet in the city, Arwady said. An average of two Chicagoans are dying per day from coronavirus, which is about what the city has seen for months.

But hospital admissions have risen in most other parts of Illinois, Pritzker said Wednesday.

And Arwady said shes worried a surge in cases here will lead to deaths once again going up. At the peak of the virus in Chicago, in April and May, nearly 50 people were dying per day from COVID-19.

Im very concerned about what this has the potential to lead to related to some of the more severe outcomes, Arwady said. I am hopeful that well be able to keep our levels of hospitalizations and deaths down.

Arwady said she has real concern about Illinois as a whole.

Chicago is doing a little better than downstate Illinois, Arwady said. But, broadly, COVID is not going well, is the bottom line. The news is not good.

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Coronavirus Is Beginning To Surge Again In Chicago, And Illinois Reported The Most Cases In 1 Day - Block Club Chicago

This weeks spike in new cases was spread across the country, rather than being concentrated in a few states, as we saw in the Northeast in the spring, in the Sun Belt in early June, and in the Midwest over the past few weeks. Seventeen states posted peak new-case days in the past week, including nine of 12 states in the Midwest and six of 11 states in the West.

Single-day case numbers have limited value because some states dont report consistently or build up backlogs, then dump several days worth of test and case data in a single day. Nevertheless, when a state sets a new record for daily reported cases, its usually a bad sign. Of all the states that reported record highs this week, only Washingtons appears to be the result of reporting irregularities; the other 16 states all showed alarming overall case and hospital trends in the past week.

Read: How the pandemic defeated America

Cases in the Northeast, where the spread of COVID-19 slowed considerably during the summer after a dismal spring, are now rising: The seven-day average case count in the region has more than doubled in the past month. The Midwest has seen an 81 percent increase in COVID-19 cases in the same period.

The Dakotas continue to have the most cases per capita, with South Dakota recording 990 cases per 1 million people and North Dakota reporting 921 cases per 1 million, based on seven-day averages.

The other states reporting the largest number of cases per capita were Wisconsin, Montana, and Missouri. Note, though, that this might not reflect the reality on the ground in Missouri, as a database error led to what the state called an incorrectly inflated count of cases for October 10. Missouri officials have not yet explained whether any case numbers were actually wrong, or were simply allocated to the wrong date. We will correct our count once the state updates its figures.

Montana posted a week-over-week decline in cases, but the states hospitalization count continues to rise. Unfortunately, rising hospitalizations are the rule rather than the exception in states around the country this week.

Last week, 41 states saw increases in hospitalizations, and this week the numbers increased in 42 states. Every single state in the Midwest save North Dakota reported more hospitalizations this week than they did on October 8, and only the West had more than two states record drops in hospitalization figures in that period.

Weve seen two previous hospitalization peaks in the national data, each with its own characteristics. From mid-March to mid-June, COVID-19 hospitalizations rose abruptly from zero to 60,000 and gradually declined to a low of just under 30,000 people hospitalized. Although outbreaks across the country contributed to the national numbers, these spring and early-summer hospitalizations were mostly concentrated in the Northeast. On June 21, national hospitalizations began increasing again as rising numbers in the South and West countered falling hospitalizations in the Northeast. As the case surge concentrated in the Sun Belt states came under control, hospitalizations gradually fell again to just under 30,000 people in mid-September, when the third surge began showing up in the hospital data.

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The Third Coronavirus Surge Has Arrived - The Atlantic

CHICAGO The city is facing a spike in coronavirus cases, and the citys top doctor thinks its being fueled by COVID fatigue.

Some of the increase in new cases is due to increased testing, but not all of it, said Dr. Allison Arwady, head of the Chicago Department of Public Health. Instead, it appears the virus is seeing more spread again, in part because people are not taking safety precautions like social distancing because theyre tired of the pandemic and its restrictions, she said.

I think people are getting COVID fatigue, Arwady said Thursday. I think this is real, that people are feeling like theyre tired of wearing their masks, theyre tired of social distancing, and theyre often letting their guard down.

But the virus is still spreading, Arwady said, and the vast majority of new cases are coming from events and places where people feel safe, so they dont follow safety precautions.

RELATED: Coronavirus Is Beginning To Surge Again In Chicago, And Illinois Reported The Most Cases In 1 Day

For example, people arent wearing masks or social distancing when theyre gathering in small groups with family and friends because they think everyone is safe, Arwady said but thats exactly where most new cases are occurring.

The increased spread can be seen all around Chicago. There are new cases in every ZIP code, and every racial/ethnic group and almost every age group is seeing an increase in new cases, Arwady said.

In Chicago, the average number of new coronavirus cases is up to 475 per day, a 43 percent increase from just one week ago. The citys positivity rate has also risen .6 percentage points.

Arwady urged people to continue following safety guidelines, like staying 6 feet away from others, wearing masks when with people who arent part of your household and washing your hands frequently. Those actions can prevent coronavirus from spreading, experts have said.

The virus doesnt care if youre sick of following the rules, Arwady said it only cares about finding new people to infect.

I know people are tired of COVID, Arwady said. Weve been talking about COVID fatigue this wishing that we didnt have to do the things we know work. Wishing that we didnt have to wear masks. Wishing that we could do all the normal ways of interacting that let us be close to each other .

But right now, we need people more than ever to do the things that we know work.

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People Are Tired Of Coronavirus, But Not Following Rules Is Causing The Virus To Spread, Top Doc Says - Block Club Chicago

After receiving a heavy infusion of monoclonal antibodies to treat his bout of Covid-19, President Trump has declared that he is immune to the virus that causes it and talked privately about wearing a Superman T-shirt under his dress shirt when he left the hospital.

Even as the president has exulted in his supposed imperviousness to the coronavirus that is resurging across parts of the country, he has delighted in portraying former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. as vulnerable and cloistered, wearing masks every time you see him.

But even if the president were now immune to the coronavirus, he may not remain so, scientists warn. The presidents unique treatment may have prevented his body from making the antibodies necessary for long-term protection.

The monoclonal antibodies he received were produced by the drug company Regeneron and will wane in a matter of weeks, as the synthetic molecules are known to do. Without replenishment, this decline may leave Mr. Trump even more susceptible to the virus than most patients who have recovered from Covid-19, several experts warned.

Moreover, the steroid treatment the president received early in the course of his illness suppresses the bodys natural immune response, including its propensity to make antibodies of its own.

He may be not protected the second time around, especially because he didnt develop his own antibodies, said Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at Yale University.

Most people who are infected with the coronavirus produce antibodies to the virus that should protect them from a second infection. Its unclear how long this immunity lasts; based on research into other coronaviruses, immunity may persist for up to a year, experts have said.

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But Mr. Trumps case is unique.

He announced his diagnosis early on Oct. 2, and a test did not pick up any antibodies in his blood, according to a report released by his physician, Dr. Sean Conley.

The lack of antibodies that early in the course of illness is not unusual. It can take from 10 days to three weeks for powerful antibodies to surface.

If he had tested positive, then we would know for sure that he has his own antibodies, said Dr. Dan Barouch, a virologist at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston.

Since he was antibody-negative, it is less likely but not ruled out, he added. He could have been in the early stage of generating his own antibodies. (Dr. Barouch is an investigator for Regenerons trial of the cocktail for preventing coronavirus infections.)

On Oct. 2, Mr. Trump received eight grams of a cocktail of two monoclonal antibodies made by Regeneron. These antibodies are infused into people like those of Mr. Trumps age, sex and weight who may struggle to produce an immune response of their own.

A test on Oct. 5 confirmed the presence of the antibodies, according to Dr. Conley.

But Dr. Barouch noted that the antibodies detected in the bloodstream are not his antibodies. Theyre antibodies that were administered. Those antibodies will wane over time.

Oct. 16, 2020, 3:48 p.m. ET

The monoclonal antibodies may have quickly suppressed the level of virus in Mr. Trumps body. While this may have protected the president from severe symptoms, it may also have prevented his immune system from making its own antibodies.

If you get the antibodies early on, and you either prevent or rapidly treat infections, Dr. Barouch said, then you probably will actually inhibit the generation of your own bodys antibodies.

Mr. Trump was also treated with dexamethasone, a steroid that is known to suppress the immune system. And he received it much earlier in the course of his illness than usual.

That also may suppress a patients antibody response, said Kartik Chandran, a virologist at Albert Einstein College of Medicine in the Bronx.

Older people and men are already less likely to generate it, he added, referring to antibodies. You add dexamethasone to the mix and God knows.

Mr. Trump received a huge dose of the antibodies, but blood levels are expected to fall by half between 21 to 25 days from infusion. Values in this range are sufficient to support monthly dosing, according to information provided by Regeneron.

The White House did not respond to questions about whether Mr. Trump intends to take monthly doses of the cocktail.

Regeneron has said that it has 50,000 doses of the cocktail in hand, and that it would need to begin rationing the therapy if the drug were to be widely distributed.

In a clinical trial, the drug maker is evaluating whether people given the cocktail make their own antibodies, but has not yet completed the analysis, according to a spokeswoman.

Monoclonal antibodies are generally considered to be safe and effective, but Regenerons cocktail has not yet been rigorously tested in clinical trials. A trial of a monoclonal antibody made by Eli Lilly was paused on Tuesday because of a safety concern.

Mr. Trump has endorsed both treatments and repeatedly declared his immunity to the coronavirus.

Im immune I could come down and start kissing everybody, he said at a rally on Tuesday in Jonesboro, Pa. Ill kiss every guy. Man and woman. Look at that guy, how handsome he is. Ill kiss him. Not with a lot of enjoyment, but thats OK.

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For How Long Will President Trump Be Immune to the Coronavirus? - The New York Times

They ranged in age from 19 to 53, weekend warriors who likely grew up playing hockey on ponds, in youth leagues and on high school teams. Even as adults, they couldnt leave the ice behind. Yet despite their combined athleticism and skill, they were no match for the coronavirus.

Their fateful match-up occurred on June 16 in Tampa, Fla. For 60 minutes, the 22 men took turns grunting, sweating, spitting and checking their way up and down the ice in a bid to reach a hard rubber puck and control its trajectory with a stick.

Five days later, 14 of 22 players had developed symptoms of COVID-19. A 15th person, a staffer at the ice rink, also became ill. Thirteen of these 15 people went on to test positive for a coronavirus infection. The other two were not tested.

All of those sickened appear to have been infected by a single person who didnt develop any outward symptoms of COVID-19 until the day after he had suited up for the evening game.

None of the remaining eight players exhibited symptoms of COVID-19, so none were tested for infection. But if they had been, the documented infection rate might have been even higher.

For hockey players eager for a chance to lace up their skates, hit the ice and escape the pandemic for a while, the implications are grim.

The ice rink provides a venue that is likely well suited to COVID-19 transmission as an indoor environment where deep breathing occurs, and persons are in close proximity to one another, three members of the Florida Department of Health wrote in a report published this week by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

One of the authors, David Atrubin, identified himself as a hockey player in the Tampa area, ruling out antihockey bias as a likely motive for the finding.

The case highlights several characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that have made it so difficult to control.

The first is the role of silent spreaders. The index patient who developed a fever, cough, sore throat and headache the day after the game _ by all accounts felt fine on the evening he showed up at the rink to play.

Researchers have found that people infected with the coronavirus appear to be contagious starting roughly 2 1/2 days before their symptoms become evident. Indeed, one study published in the journal Nature found the peak of this viral shedding to come roughly 18 hours before symptoms set in.

The index patient spread the virus to eight of his 10 teammates, five of 11 players on the opposing team, and the rink staffer. (Neither of the two referees became ill.) Once they were infected, it would take an average of four to five days (and as long as 14 days) for the next round of victims to become sick. In that time, each is likely to have spread the coronavirus silently to others. (The Florida health officials did not report on cases beyond those tied directly to the game.)

Meanwhile, some of the eight players who never became sick might themselves have harbored the virus and spread it to others under the radar. Since they were not tested, theres no way to know.

The report also underscores a point on which scientists and public health officials have gone back and forth since early in the pandemic: That in the right conditions, the coronavirus appears to spread quite efficiently from one person to another through the air.

Thats especially true when individuals who are not wearing masks are standing close to _ or, in the case of hockey, checking, bumping, shouldering and driving to the net in close contact with other people.

None of the Tampa hockey players wore cloth face coverings during the game or when using their separate locker rooms. While playing, some used face-protecting metal cages or plastic half-shields. But those are better at guarding against a raised stick or a flying puck than coronavirus particles in the air.

While so-called aerosol transmission has long been a suspected factor in spread, it was not until this month that the CDC acknowledged those particles might be playing a key role in the pandemic.

U.S. health officials have long warned that an infected persons sneeze or cough might infect people at very close range. They also focused on the threat posed by droplets from those coughs and sneezes that land on doorknobs, handrails and other high-touch surfaces a threat that can be countered with frequent hand-washing and sanitizer use.

But despite evidence from super-spreader events in meatpacking plants, choir practices and high-intensity fitness classes, they resisted the growing surmise that enough virus to make someone sick could be expelled in the breath of an infected person, and then linger long enough in the air to be sucked in by another person.

In that June hockey game, droplets both large and small likely conspired to create a super-spreader event.

Hockey is mostly played in indoor rinks that are cavernous and open. But in places like steamy Tampa, ventilation from outside would mean an unwelcome loss of the cool air that helps maintain the ice.

Amateur teams typically play three periods that last 15 to 20 minutes each, alternating ice time with jostling against teammates on a bench within a plexiglass enclosure. As they jump on and off the ice, players tend to spit and expel mucus. The exertion of skating and either disrupting or fending off opposing players causes heavy breathing. Scrums and pile-ups in corners, where the puck often ends up, are common.

All of that happens in a space measuring 200 feet by 85 feet, surrounded by plexiglass for the safety of spectators. And thats before the spitting, shouting and shared surfaces players encounter in the locker room.

This game involved a limited number of players. Yet it appears to satisfy the criteria for a super-spreader event a single assembly of people capable of activating a wide net of infections that can quickly become too large for local public health authorities to track and contain.

The account was published in Fridays edition of the CDCs Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

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The Cyber Guy Kurt Knutsson on the massive hack on prominent Twitter accounts and whether users should be concerned.

Microsoftco-founder Bill Gates on Wednesday warned that the coronaviruspandemic could make the fall "worse than the summer."

The billionairehas been outspoken in his thoughts and advice regarding COVID-19, as well as his criticismof the government's handling of the virus. He predicted in 2015 that the world was not prepared for a pandemic.

"The fall is going to be worse than the summer," Gates said in an interviewwith Politico Playbook when asked what the government should do to "right the course" of COVID-19. "All the numbers are ticking up, and that was always a very good chance that as people go indoors and it's colder, that we would see more transmission."

Co-Founder and Technology Adviser of Microsoft Bill Gates answers questions during an interview on October 18, 2018.(Photo by Thierry Monasse/Getty Images)

He continued to say that until the U.S. has developed and starts actively distributing antibodies and a vaccine, likely by the first half of2021, "all we have is our behavior," including masks and social distancing.

"Unfortunately, we've got a lot of fatigue and a lot of bad messages about these things," he said, adding that "U.S. mask compliance is actually pretty poor."

BILL GATES SAYS TRUMP'S CORONAVIRUS TREATMENT WON'T WORK FOR EVERYONE, SHOULDN'T BE CALLED 'CURE'

A number of states,particularly in the Midwest and the South, have reported recordhighs in COVID-19 cases and some have reported new high death counts since the spring and summer months.

States that have seen the most positive virus cases per 100,000 people within the last week, according to a New York Times analysis, include North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Wisconsin, Utah, Nebraska, Iowa, Idaho, and Wyoming.

RICH COUNTRIES COULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL BY LATE 2021 IF VACCINE WORKS, BILL GATES SAYS

States that have recorded the most deaths per 100,000 people within the last week include North Dakota, Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas, South Dakota, Florida, Montana, Mississippi, Iowa, and Tennessee, according to the Times.

Des Moines Public Schools custodian Cynthia Adams cleans a desk in a classroom at Brubaker Elementary School, July 8, 2020, in Des Moines, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Gates also told Playbook that, historically, there has been dangerous skepticism regarding vaccines, and communities often look to leaders they trust to determine whether or not they will receive a vaccine for a specific virus.

"Here, what you'd want to see is, where are we not getting the compliance? And who are the leaders they look to? Political leaders, religious leaders, scientific leaders -- and have that message get out," he said.

The United States is looking at six potential vaccines -- two of which have entered Phase 3 trials.

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Vice presidential candidate Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., has repeatedlysaidthat she would not trust President Trump if he encouraged people to get a vaccine, but that she would trust experts likeNational Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci.

Gates went on to praise the government for the "timely" stimulus plan that was passed in March to ensure "the bottom didn't fall out of the economy," as well as the money that was given to researchers to study the virus and create a vaccine and antibodies.

He continued: "I clearly think there should be a [second]stimulus bill. I'm not an expert on all the aspects of that, but it is a little unfortunate when you have even the Fed chief who's not that political talking about the economic need."

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The cavernous interior of the tent to be used for the testing in a parking lot at Miller Park park. On October 19 testing for Covid19 will begin at Miller Park, staffed by the guard, the Health Department and the county EMS team. The site will have a capacity of 1,500 to 2,000 tests each day.(Photo: Michael Sears / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

Wisconsin is struggling with a growing surge ofCOVID-19 cases that's showing no signof slowing down.

Health officials are encouraging people to get tested, especially those whoare experiencing symptoms of the virus or may have been exposed to someone who has it.

Here is some information on what to do and where to go to get tested for COVID-19 in the Milwaukee area. Be aware thatdifferent testing sites have different policies in terms of whether appointments are needed or symptoms are required.

The state Department of Health Services also maintains an up-to-datemap of Wisconsin's testing locations, including their hours and appointment information.People can also call 2-1-1 for information about getting COVID-19 testing.

Residents can also contact their health care providers to check their testing options.

The Wisconsin National Guard is conducting free, drive-throughtesting for those age 5 and older. No symptoms or appointments are required. The testing sites are located on the south side atUMOS, 2701 S. Chase Ave., and on the north side at theBarack Obama School -Custer Stadium site, 4300 W. Fairmount Ave.

Their current hours are from 11 a.m. to 6 p.m. Monday through Thursday and from 11 a.m. to 5 p.m.Friday and Saturday.

These National Guard sites are open through Saturday, but will be closed starting nextweek as the National Guard transitions out of its testing role in Milwaukee.

With the Wisconsin National Guard shifting its testing operation to other parts of the state, local leaders are providingtesting at two health centers and are set to open a central testing site at Miller Park on Oct. 19.

Northwest Health Center, 7630 W. Mill Road,and Southside Health Center, 1639 S. 23rd St., are now providing free, no appointment needed testing.

Hours atNorthwest Health Center andSouthside Health Center will be 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday and 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. Wednesdays.

The sites arestaffed by the Milwaukee Health Department with assistance from the Milwaukee Fire Department and a county EMS team.

The cavernous tent to be used for the testing in a parking lot at Miller Park park. On October 19 testing for Covid19 will begin at Miller Park, staffed by the guard, the Health Department and the county EMS team. The site will have a capacity of 1,500 to 2,000 tests each day.(Photo: Michael Sears / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

Testing will begin at Miller Parkon Monday.

The Miller Park site will be open 11 a.m. to 6 p.m. Monday through Friday.

The free, drive-throughtesting site will be for anyone age 5 and older.No symptoms or appointments are required. People who have symptoms or may have been exposed to someone with the virus are especially encouraged to get tested.

The Miller Park site will be staffed by the guard, the Health Department and the county EMS team.

As the guard transitions out of the city, officials anticipate a fully civilian testing staff by Nov. 25.

That site will have a capacity of 1,500 to 2,000tests each day.

A number of Milwaukee community health centers are offering testing with no income, insurance or immigration restrictions. Appointments are required, and you can call 2-1-1 or any of the centers below directly if you are experiencing symptoms.

On the north side:

Milwaukee Health Services Inc., 2555 N. King Drive or8200 W. Silver Spring Drive. Call 414-372-8080.

Outreach Community Health Centers, 210 W. Capitol Drive. Call414-727-6320.

Progressive Community Health Centers,3522 W. Lisbon Ave. Those with symptoms can call 414-882-2040 for an appointment at the outdoor drive-through.

On the south side:

Gerald L. Ignace Indian Health Center,930 W. Historic Mitchell St.Those with symptoms can call 414-383-9526 to make an appointment.

Sixteenth Street Community Health Centers,2906 S. 20th St.or 1032 S. Cesar E. Chavez Drive, for established patients only. The health center is accepting new patients forthose who do not have a doctor. Call 414-672-1353.

AdvocateAurora is providing community testing in Milwaukee, Kenosha and Green Bay. Testing is available to people who are either experiencing symptoms or have been exposed to someone who tested positive for COVID-19. Appointments are required. Those interested in getting tested can call the hotline at 877-819-5034 or go to http://www.aah.org/testing.

In Wisconsin, all Froedtert Health locations require an appointment. Call your primary care provider's office or the Froedtert hotline at 414-805-2000.

Ascension also requires appointments forCOVID-19 tests. Callthe hotline at 833-981-0711 or go to the website to get more information.

CVS is offering testing at locations in Milwaukee and surrounding communities, including inCudahy,Franklin, Menomonee Falls, Waukesha, Wauwatosa andWest Allis. Appointments are required.

You must provide identification and proof of insurance at your appointment.

Walgreens is offering testing at five Milwaukee-area locations.Testing for those eligiblerequires an appointment.

Patients need to bring a copy of their appointment confirmation email, photo identification and their insurance card, if applicable.

Walgreens uses pharmacist-guided self-administered tests, which are free for those who meet CDC criteria as determined by the screening form.

A testing site in Waukesha County is now doing free COVID tests five days a week at the Waukesha County Expo Center, 1000 Northview Road. The National Guard administers tests several days a week with health professionals filling in the remaining days.

The Waukesha Free Clinic, 237 Wisconsin Ave.,will administer COVID-19 tests from noon to 4 p.m.Tuesdayand Thursday, and from 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. alternating Fridayand Saturday.

The National Guard does free testing in Washington and Ozaukee counties on limited days. Testing is first come, first served and people are encouraged to register in advance. The sites can only test 300 people per day.

In Ozaukee County:

Ozaukee County Transit Services, 410 S. Spring St., Port Washington, from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. on Oct. 17 and 31;Nov. 7, 14 and 21; and Dec. 1 and 8.

In Washington County:

Washington County Fair Park, 300 Highway PV, just south of West Bend, from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Oct. 13, 20 and27; Nov. 3, 10, 17 and 24; and Dec. 1 and 8.

Contact Mary Spicuzzaat (414) 224-2324 ormary.spicuzza@jrn.com. Followheron Twitter at @MSpicuzzaMJS.

Our subscribers make this reporting possible. Please consider supporting local journalism by subscribing to the Journal Sentinel at jsonline.com/deal.

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Here's where you can get a coronavirus test in the Milwaukee area, including free testing sites - Milwaukee Journal Sentinel