Category: Corona Virus

SALT LAKE CITY (ABC4) The Utah Department of Health is reporting 728 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, August 3.

There are five new virus-related death reported.

A total of435,439 Utahns have tested positive for COVID-19.

Lab reports from the Utah Department of Health show 2,938,515people have been tested. This is an increase of 6,018.

UDOH reports a total of 5,346,752 total tests, an increase of 10,576 since yesterday.

In total, 3,041,947vaccines have been administered, which is 6,830 more than yesterday.

The rolling7-day average for positive tests is 877 per day.

The rolling 7-day average for percent positivity of people over people is 15%.The rolling 7-day average for percent positivity of tests over tests is 10.6%.

There are 395 people currently hospitalized with COVID-19. Total hospitalizations from the beginning of the outbreak are 18,770.

UDOH is reporting 2,471 total deaths.

Originally posted here:

Utah adds over 720 new COVID-19 cases as hospitalizations near 400 - ABC 4

The spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus in some U.S. states is leading to the possibility that the economy may be heading into a stagflation-like cycle that could complicate the Federal Reserves options for tightening monetary policy in the face of the recent rise in inflation.

Not only could the coronavirus variant delay the return of many Americans to the workforce, it might reinforce the upside risk to inflation if the wage gains used to lure workers back prove to be durable, according to BMO Capital Markets strategists Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery. And that, in turn, would provide a challenge for the central bank which may miss its employment objectives amid persistently higher inflation.

Its a turnabout in sentiment from earlier this year, when the development and rollout of vaccines drove much of the optimism in financial markets, allowing investors to price in a post-pandemic U.S. recovery in stocks and bonds. Now, the possibility of stagflation an economic environment marked by high unemployment, high inflation, and low economic growth, experienced in the U.S. in the 1970s or something close to it has moved onto the radar screen of analysts.

Read: Stagflation is a legitimate risk that would be painful for U.S. markets

The new wave has not only brought into question the timing of next steps toward returning to normal, its also raised concerns that this might be the new normal, Lyngen and Jeffery wrote in a note Tuesday.

While avoiding the use of the word stagflation in their commentary, they said that since policy makers June meeting any hints that the timing of the first rate increase might occur sooner than expected have been met with a so-called bull flattening in Treasuries, a classic policy error response, in which long-term yields fall faster than short-term rates.

Should there be a meaningful acceleration in investors expectations for normalization of the Feds policy interest rate, three- and five-year Treasuries would see the majority of the selloff while the lower-rate environment in 10s and 30s would be once again reinforced.

Worries about rising numbers of new Covid cases weighed on the Treasury bond market again on Tuesday. The 10-year Treasury yield, TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.187% remained near the lowest level in six months. Meanwhile, stock investors shrugged off the concern, sending both the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.80% and the S&P 500 Index SPX, +0.82% slightly higher.

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New coronavirus wave is giving credence to the risks of a U.S. stagflation-like scenario - MarketWatch

Exhortations to get a coronavirus vaccine are all around, but Brad Offutt has decided to reject them.

The 53-year-old is a pain therapist in Marble Falls, a town of about 6,000 people in Burnet County, and he said he wants to see the vaccines get full approval rather than the current emergency authorization by the Food and Drug Administration before he gets one. But even then, Offutt said that the chances of him doing so are slim since he doesnt feel threatened by COVID personally.

Instead hes made the decision to take the risk of getting COVID.

The coronavirus vaccines have been thoroughly tested and found to be safe and effective. More than 340 million doses have been given in the U.S., and side effects have been determined by the FDA and independent researchers to be extremely rare and far less substantial than the dangers of getting COVID-19, which has killed more than 52,000 Texans as of Aug. 2.

Public health experts say getting as many people vaccinated as possible is the best and fastest way to end the pandemic but Offutts hesitancy is common. He is one of 14 million Texans as of Aug. 1 who, about eight months after the first batch of vaccines first rolled out, have remained unvaccinated.

Many of those unvaccinated are children who are ineligible to receive the shots; around 5 million Texans are under 12. But still 83% of Texans, or 24 million residents, are eligible for the vaccine. With 15 million Texans who have received at least one shot as of Aug. 1, that leaves 9 million eligible Texans who have not gotten their vaccine yet.

This places the states vaccination rate at 36th in the country and has helped drive another troubling wave in the pandemic. COVID hospitalizations in Texas quadrupled in July. Preliminary data from the state indicates that more than 99.5% of people who died due to COVID-19 in Texas from Feb. 8 to July 14 were unvaccinated. The percentage of fully vaccinated residents has gone from 3% to 42% in that time span.

The Texas Tribune analyzed the demographic and geographic trends of Texans who have not gotten their shot yet. Here are some of our main findings:

Offutt lives along Lake Marble Falls with his wife, Dr. Amy Offutt, an integrative medicine physician who is also choosing not to get vaccinated. He said they have enough space there not to have to worry about being in large crowds where the likelihood of being exposed to the virus is high.

Marble Falls is a conservative stronghold; 76% of its voters cast their ballots for Trump in 2020. The city is part of Burnet County, where 40% of residents are fully vaccinated far behind the rates of neighboring Travis and Williamson counties, which are both around 56%.

It matters if you live in a city which is more densely populated, versus where we live which is not that populated and most of what we do are outdoor things, Brad Offutt said.

Data shows thats not necessarily true. Across Texas, the counties with the highest case rates are outside the urban centers.

Still, attitudes like Offutts are common among white conservative rural folks, said Dr. David Lakey, the chief medical officer of the University of Texas System. According to the Tribunes analysis, 33% of people in rural or nonmetropolitan counties are fully vaccinated as of Aug. 1, behind the states rate of 44%.

In the states biggest cities, the story is different. Vaccination rates are higher in the metropolitan areas, but the cities poorer neighborhoods and the neighborhoods with more people of color tend to have much lower vaccination rates. Overall, Black and Hispanic Texans hold the lowest vaccination rates among racial groups statewide, at 28% and 35% respectively.

In an area like Houston or Dallas or Austin, the overall rates may look good, but you can have significant differences and disparities between one ZIP code and another, Lakey said. ... one part of town can be very different from another part of town.

For example, in Dallas County, 58% of the people in neighborhoods that are majority white were fully vaccinated as of July 26. Those rates are far ahead of neighborhoods that are majority Black and Hispanic, which are 37% vaccinated.

Lakey added that East Texas vaccination rates have been lagging behind the rest of the state since it tends to be older, and its an area of the state that has a significant African American population and also a significant conservative white population, and is also a more rural area.

Mistrust is the leading cause of vaccine hesitancy, Lakey said, and the core of the mistrust usually depends on a persons culture.

Hesitancy for white conservatives, he said, hinges on distrust of government, while for Hispanic and Black residents its often a lack of trust in the health care system because of generations of disparities in the American system.

For some individuals who have not had a lot of experience interacting in the health care system perhaps they dont have a primary care physician this might create further doubt when we start talking about a vaccine because these kinds of experiences are new, said Dr. John Carlo, CEO of Prism Health North Texas.

He added that while he wishes fewer people were hesitant about the vaccine, he understands the uncertainty.

I think the big thing that I would say is that we just have to continue to listen and see where people are on this because oftentimes, people arent completely opposed to it, Carlo said. Theres a lingering concern and maybe questions could be answered.

Alma Pea, a 40-year-old Austin resident, didnt trust the coronavirus vaccine when it first came out and resisted getting it all of spring.

I was afraid that something would happen to me when I got the vaccine, she said in Spanish.

But the recent surge of cases and hospitalizations made being unvaccinated scarier than the shots potential side effects for Pea. Shes a housecleaner, and since she spends most of her days hopping from home to home, she pushed her apprehensions aside and rolled up her sleeve in July.

Im afraid, Pea said.

She got her shot in early July through the University of Texas School of Nursings Vaccine Administration Mobile Operations, or VAMOS, which strives to vaccinate vulnerable populations in Austin. She went to one of their weekly clinics held at the parking lot of First Spanish Seventh Day Adventist Church, which is just around the corner from her house.

She took her 13-year-old son Joseph to get his first dose on July 21 at the same church, right before he starts seventh grade in August.

The way to convince more families like the Peas to get vaccinated, Carlo said, is to make sure we have one message with many voices.

Of the six ZIP codes in Travis County in which Hispanics make up more than half of residents, all but one ZIP code has a fully vaccinated rate lower than that of the countys 56%, according to the Tribunes analysis.

The gap is also seen when comparing neighborhoods by median income. Of the 14 ZIP codes that have median incomes lower than that of the countys, 10 are also under the countywide fully vaccinated rate. Of the 20 Travis County ZIP codes with incomes above the countys median income, just four are below the countys rate.

Ana Todd is the director of the VAMOS clinic where Joseph got his shot, and said a lack of easy access to health care and transportation are also key reasons why some Black and Hispanic residents havent received a vaccine. But above all, mistrust is one of the biggest reasons Texans are turning away from the shot, she said.

Todd said efforts that take the time to meet and talk to residents are crucial to mending the relationship between Austins Hispanic and Black communities and the health care system. And thats why the organization hosts clinics at local churches.

People trust the churches, Todd said.

Every Wednesday since May, VAMOS partners with the Central Texas Food Bank to make its weekly food drive at First Spanish Church a vaccination clinic as well. Some regulars for the food bank stop by not knowing about the vaccine clinic. While they wait in line to pick up food, a volunteer for VAMOS asks them if they would like to get vaccinated.

Sometimes, Todd said, hesitant residents decline. But theyll come back the following week, and shell ask them again if they want to consider getting the vaccine. That was the case a couple months ago when a mother and daughter were in line for the food drive. Todd said she asked the duo if they wanted to get their vaccine and the mother immediately declined, but the daughter said, let me think about it.

Todd continued to tell the daughter about the importance of the vaccine, and she eventually agreed to get the shot. After watching her daughter get vaccinated, the mother told Todd she would take the week to think about getting hers as well.

We have been consistently working to build trust, Todd said. And even more importantly, weve been listening to why they dont want to get the vaccine or why they havent.

She added that being Venezuelan and treating a majority Hispanic neighborhood helps her build trust with residents.

I understand when somebody says to me Dios me va a proteger God is going to protect me, Todd said. So when they tell me that, I know the context. I know how to guide the conversation and talk about how weve been given the tools to take care of ourselves. ... And so its about framing the conversation so that its person-centered and patient-centered.

Dr. Lane Aiena, the director of Walker Countys COVID-19 medical response team, said he has a similar approach to convincing his rural community to get them vaccinated: having one-on-one conversations with his patients.

I have to be very mindful that Im frustrated with the situation but not the person, Aiena said, who is also a doctor in Huntsville. No one is anti-vaccine just because they woke up one the morning and decided Im not going to take this shot. They heard something somewhere. They have a reason to be hesitant and Im asking them to put something in their body, and they have the right to want to know about that.

A note on methodology:

Higher- and lower-income ZIP codes are defined as ZIP codes with median incomes above or below the countys median after accounting for margin of error. ZIP codes were included in a demographic majority if more than half of its residents are in that demographic group after accounting for margin of error. Income and racial demographic data was taken from the 2019 U.S. Census Bureaus American Community Survey.

Disclosure: University of Texas System has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

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COVID-19 is spreading fast among Texas' unvaccinated. Here's who they are and where they live. - The Texas Tribune

London CNN

An analysis by British academics, published by the UK Governments official scientific advisory group, says that they believe it is almost certain that a SARS-Cov-2 variant will emerge that leads to current vaccine failure. SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes Covid-19.

The analysis has not been peer-reviewed, the early research is theoretical, and does not provide any proof that such a variant is in circulation now. Documents like it are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency.

The paper is dated July 26, and was published by the British government on Friday.

The scientists write that because eradication of the virus is unlikely, they have high confidence that variants will continue to emerge. They say it is almost certain that there will be a gradual or punctuated accumulation of antigenic variation that eventually leads to current vaccine failure.

They recommend that authorities continue to reduce virus transmission as much as possible to reduce the chance of a new, vaccine-resistant variant.

They also recommend that research focus on new vaccines that not only prevent hospital admission and disease, but also induce high and durable levels of mucosal immunity.

The goal, they say, should be to reduce infection of and transmission from vaccinated individuals, and to reduce the possibility of variant selection in vaccinated individuals. Research is already underway at several companies that make the Covid-19 vaccines to address new variants.

The views were expressed in a paper by group of academics on scenarios for the longer term evolution of SARS-CoV-2, and discussed and published by the UKs Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).

They write that some variants that have emerged over the past few months show a reduced susceptibility to vaccine-acquired immunity, though none appears to escape entirely.

But they caution that these variants emerged before vaccination was widespread, and that as vaccines become more widespread, the transmission advantage gained by a virus that can evade vaccine-acquired immunity will increase.

This is an issue that SAGE has warned about before.

In minutes from its July 7 meeting, SAGE scientists wrote that the combination of high prevalence and high levels of vaccination creates the conditions in which an immune escape variant is most likely to emerge. It said at the time that the likelihood of this happening is unknown, but such a variant would present a significant risk both in the UK and internationally.

Continued here:

UK scientists believe it is 'almost certain' a coronavirus variant will emerge that beats current vaccines - CNN

CNN

Hospitals are surging with unvaccinated patients infected with the Delta variant which could affect car accident victims and other non-Covid-19 patients who need hospital care, doctors say.

None of these patients thought they would get the virus, but the Delta variant has proven to be so highly contagious that even the young and the healthy, including pregnant patients, are now starting to fill up our hospitals, said Dr. Neil Finkler, chief clinical officer for AdventHealth Central Florida.

More than 90% of the hospitalized Covid-19 patients are unvaccinated, he said.

In Austin, Texas, Our ICU capacity is reaching a critical point where the level of risk to the entire community has significantly increased, and not just to those who are needing treatment for COVID, Austin-Travis County Health Authority Dr. Desmar Walkes said in a statement.

If we fail to come together as a community now, we jeopardize the lives of loved ones who might need critical care.

In Mississippi, Covid-19 hospitalizations have increased significantly including among younger patients, State Health Officer Thomas Dobbs said. All 88 beds in the University of Mississippi Medical Centers intensive care unit had filled up by Friday, according to data from the states health department.

And in Louisiana, Were becoming victims of the unvaccinated, said Dr. Christopher Thomas, critical care physician at Our Lady of the Lake Regional Medical Center in Baton Rouge.

We currently are overwhelming our bed capacity. Were creating burnout for our teams. And honestly, were beginning to impact the rest of the health care for the community.

At the Louisiana hospital, 97% of Covid-19 patients in the ICU were unvaccinated, Thomas said. As of Friday, the average age of Covid-19 patients in the ICU was 48.

That means there are children with parents who are now in the hospital, he said.

With only 49.6% of Americans fully vaccinated as of Sunday, more businesses and cities such as Birmingham, New Orleans and Louisville are issuing mask mandates to fight the Delta variant.

The Delta strain is several times more contagious than the original strain of novel coronavirus and appears to cause more severe disease, according to an internal presentation from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Given higher transmissibility and current vaccine coverage, universal masking is essential to reduce transmission of the Delta variant, the internal CDC documents said.

Many of those who dont want to wear masks or get vaccinated are prolonging the pandemic, doctors say.

We know that the vast majority of the spread is still by unvaccinated people. And I think that that is the part thats been lost in the messaging from the CDC, said Dr. Leana Wen, visiting professor at George Washington Universitys Milken Institute School of Public Health.

The problem is not with the vaccinated. The problem remains with the unvaccinated. And the way that we can get out of this pandemic is to increase vaccination rates, she said.

So the CDC should actually be saying, Look, the reason were doing indoor mandates is because the unvaccinated cannot be trusted to put on masks. Thats why the vaccinated also have to be putting on masks.

Many Americans were surprised to hear the CDCs updated guidance saying everyone even fully vaccinated people should wear face masks indoors in areas of high or substantial transmission.

To be clear: Its mostly about protecting the unvaccinated. Thats where the real serious risks of illness are, said Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health.

Those who are vaccinated are less likely to get infected, Collins said. When breakthrough infections do happen in vaccinated people, they usually lead to mild or no symptoms at all.

But vaccinated people who get breakthrough infections might be able to spread Covid-19 as easily as unvaccinated people, according to the CDC.

High viral loads suggest an increased risk of transmission and raised concern that, unlike with other variants, vaccinated people infected with Delta can transmit the virus, CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said Friday.

That finding was a pivotal discovery leading to CDCs updated mask recommendation, Walensky said.

But Collins said its critical to emphasize how much more danger unvaccinated people are in, compared to vaccinated people. He said those who are not vaccinated:

Are three times more likely to get infected.

Are eight times more likely to get symptoms when infected.

Are 25 times more likely to be hospitalized with Covid-19.

If anybodys listening whos been on the fence, its a tipping point now, Collins said. Lets try to get everybody out there and start to be a part of the winning team.

As more Americans become educated about the Delta variant, vaccinations are increasing.

According to CDC data, 816,023 doses were administered Saturday the fifth straight day the agency recorded more than 700,000 shots in arms. The 7-day average of administered doses is 662,529 per day, the highest average since July 7.

Overall, 49.6% of the US population 168.4 million people are fully vaccinated. Of those 12 and older, 58.1% are fully vaccinated.

Nationwide, the rate of vaccinations this past week is up more than 25% compared to three weeks ago.

In Alabama and Arkansas, which both have about 35% of residents fully vaccinated, the rates of new doses given have doubled compared to three weeks ago.

Ohio has had a significant increase in vaccination rates, particularly in rural areas, Republican Gov. Mike DeWine said Sunday.

I think the fear of the Delta variant is certainly one of the causes, DeWine said.

He said the state is now focusing on outreach efforts to the under-vaccinated Medicaid population through incentives like $100 cash awards for getting the vaccinated.

DeWine also credited the states Vax-a-Million program for boosting vaccinations.

We think well over 100,000 extra people were vaccinated, at a minimum, because of that, DeWine said. It was very, very successful.

But the game is still with getting people vaccinated, he said. We have room to grow.

CNNs Dakin Andone, Nadia Kounang, Deidre McPhillips, Lauren Mascarenhas, Jen Christensen, Melissa Alonso, and Raja Razek contributed to this report.

Original post:

Unvaccinated Covid-19 patients are filling up hospitals, putting the care of others at risk, doctors say - CNN

Dr. Anthony Fauci on Sunday warned that the countrys latest COVID-19 surge is "going to get worse" but insisted he doesnt expect the climbing case numbers to trigger any new lockdown orders.

The White House chief medical adviser acknowledged that the US has yet to turn the corner in the recent outbreak driven by the spread of the highly contagious delta variant.

NYT WRITER HITS FAUCI IN SCATHING OP-ED

"Things are going to get worse," Faucitold ABC co-anchor Jonathan Karlon "This Week."

But Fauci said he still doesnt expect the nation to shut down again.

"I dont think were gonna see lockdowns. I think we have enough of the percentage of people in the country not enough to crush the outbreak but I believe enough to not allow us to get into the situation we were in last winter," Fauci said referring to when municipalities across the countryinstituted strict rulesinvolving mask-wearing and business and school shutdowns.

CORONAVIRUS: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

The average number of daily new coronavirus cases in the U.S. has nearly doubled in the past 10 days, according to a Reuters analysis.

Fauci said unvaccinated Americans are largely behind the latest outbreak of infections and blamed them for preventing the country from returning to "normal.

"You know what we really need to do. We say it over and over again, and its the truth: We have 100 million people in this country who are eligible to be vaccinated who are not getting vaccinated. We are seeing an outbreak of the unvaccinated," Fauci said.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL CORONAVIRUS COVERAGE

"From the standpoint of illness, hospitalization, suffering and death, the unvaccinated are much more vulnerable because the vaccinated are protected from severe illness, for the most part," he said. "And getting us back to normal, the unvaccinated, by not being vaccinated, are allowing the propagation and the spread of the outbreak which ultimately impacts everybody."

To read more from the New York Post, click here.

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Fauci warns latest COVID-19 wave is going to get worse - Fox News

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What are the long-term effects of COVID-19 on the lungs? - KXAN.com

By Susan Canfora

The Delaware Division of Public Health is reporting 111,275 positive cases of the coronavirus, bringing the seven-day average of new positive cases to 89.9.

The seven-day average was 3.5 percent, up from 2.5 percent increase reported on July 20, according to a news release issued by the Delaware Division of Public Health.

As of the end of last week, 1,830 Delaware residents had died from the virus, including 545 from Sussex County, 903 from New Castle County and 382 from Kent County.

Thirty-two Delaware residents were hospitalized with the virus, four less than last week. Three were critically ill, a decrease of one from last week.

Those who have died ranged from younger than 5 to 104 years old. There were 927 women and 903 men.

So far, 72.3 percent of Delaware residents 18 and older have received at least one dose of the vaccine to protect against the virus and as of July 30, 1,055,977 doses had been administered, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which has consistently stated vaccines are the best protection against COVID-19 and variants. See de.gov/covidvaccine.

The Division of Public Health, partnering with the Delaware National Guard, have launched mobile units to offer vaccinations in underserved communities. Medically trained staff will give the Pfizer vaccine to those 12 and older and the Johnson & Johnson vaccine to those 18 and older. Mobile units are scheduled to visit Sussex, New Castle and Kent counties next week. See de.gov/getmyvaccine.

As of Friday, July 30, the Division of Public Health has identified several variants in Delaware, through test specimens. They include the United Kingdom variant, South Africa, Brazil, India, New York, California and UK/Nigeria, which was formerly a New York strain.

Virus mutation is common but because these variants may spread more easily, those not vaccinated who are more susceptible to getting the virus and should wear a face mask, wash their hand frequently and be careful when attending large gatherings.

Vaccination reduces the chance of developing the virus or becoming seriously ill from it. So far, 469,873 Delaware residents have been fully vaccinated and of those, there have been 567 breakthrough cases of COVID-19.

As of July 29, there have been 2,785 positive cases of the coronavirus involving long-term care residents, with 825 residents dying, an increase of 65, between mid-May 2020 and late June 2021, according to the news release.

Even those who are fully vaccinated should get tested if they develop symptoms including fever, cough, shortness of breath, sore throat, muscle aches, fatigue, chills, shaking with chills, loss of smell or taste, nausea or vomiting, diarrhea, headache, congestion or runny nose without a known cause such as allergies. Other symptoms can include abdominal pain or lack of appetite. For information about testing, see de.gov/gettested.

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Seven-day average of coronavirus cases in Delaware increases; residents urged to get fully vaccinated - Coastal Point

John Edmunds has been at the centre of the unravelling of the Covid-19 pandemic since cases first appeared in January 2020. A member of Sage, the governments scientific advisory group, and a professor of epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, he has consistently warned ministers about the threats posed by the disease.

These risks have often been clear in their nature. But today, 18 months after Covid-19 first appeared, he believes the nation stands at a point of maximum uncertainty about the future of the pandemic.

At any other point of the epidemic, it has been easier to foresee what might happen, he told the Observer. But at this point, I think its really hard to understand what has happened and what is going to happen in the long term. There is a huge amount of uncertainty about the disease at the moment.

The fact that we are a year and a half into the pandemic and are still being wrongfooted by Covid-19 may seem surprising. After all, in that time, we have developed powerful vaccines to protect against it and have pinpointed critically important drugs to treat patients. Science has worked wonders.

Nevertheless, researchers are still very unsure about how Covid-19 will progress in the UK in the coming months.

The statistics have certainly been startling. First, case numbers rocketed at the beginning of July. Then they reversed and began to fall, leaving statisticians and scientists struggling to make sense of the fluctuating figures. For good measure, a host of conflicting factors has been put forward to explain Covid case numbers.

Has the opening up of society on 19 July had a major impact? Did Euro 2020 propel the virus through the homes and pubs of England? Could the UK be approaching herd immunity? And what impact have the school holidays had on the progress of the disease?

Untangling these factors, as well as understanding the exact impact vaccines have had on society, has now become a complex, urgent business. It will tell us just how bad things are likely to get when society really opens up in September and October and as winter approaches, said Edmunds.

There is clear agreement on one factor, however. All the evidence indicates that vaccines are now playing a pivotal role in controlling the disease. Had the government completely opened society on an unprotected populace, daily death tolls would by now have soared into their thousands. But just how far has our vaccine protection reached?

It is a crucial question, whose answer will determine just how severe will be the return of Covid-19 in the autumn as schools reopen, the weather chills and people head indoors. A key factor is the degree to which the country has achieved herd immunity. In other words, will we have reached the point where so many people have been either infected or vaccinated and therefore possess some immunity to the disease that viral transmission falls or even stops?

You can run some very simple models to see if the case numbers that we saw earlier this month are consistent with effective herd immunity, said Prof Mark Woolhouse of Edinburgh University. And in my view the answer is, yes, it is. There are some big caveats but the bottom line is that those figures are consistent with the impact of herd immunity.

Woolhouse pointed to a recent Office of National Statistics survey which showed that around 90% of adults in the UK now possessed Covid antibodies, which indicates that they could be capable of some kind of immune response to infection. That is a very large fraction and it may well be having an impact, he said.

Prof Martin Hibberd, also of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, agreed that herd immunity was becoming a realistic prospect. We are approaching herd immunity but I dont think were quite there yet, he said.

But if we are nearing this sought-after goal, why was there such a rapid rise in cases in mid-July? What circumstances could have triggered this massive leap in infections in a nation that is supposed to be heading towards herd immunity? Scientists point to two key factors: the Euros and schools closing for the holidays.

If you look at herd immunity, you would expect it to peak at different times in different parts of the country as there are differing levels of immunity across the country, said Edmunds. But this is not what we saw: we saw a synchronous drop in cases right across England. This suggests an external factor was behind it something that occurred across the country at the same time.

And the two most likely candidates, he said, are schools closing and the pingdemic that occurred immediately after the Euros. In other words, the large gatherings of fans mostly male in pubs to watch England play football would have triggered jumps in case numbers in mid-July. This would have been followed by a rise in contacts being asked to self-isolate after being linked to infected fans.

This bout of self-isolation occurred across the country at the same time, and it looks like it reduced cases, Edmunds said. But these would be expected to go up again if were not for the effect of school closures.

Pupils are no longer bringing home viruses after picking them up in class. This is now probably helping to hold cases down, and may well do so over the summer.

This point was backed by Woolhouse. We are now three and a half weeks past our peak in Scotland, and numbers are still not going back up. So, you know, Im more confident that the underlying trend is in the right direction.

Prof James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute in Oxford, also thinks the short-term picture is optimistic. It looks as if case numbers are plateauing, and one would hope they will drop somewhat over summer, he said.

However, problems will return in September when children go back to school, businesses open up and people spend more time indoors.

We will still have high levels of infection in the community. About one person in 65 carries the virus at present, and that means virus levels are not going to go down significantly by September, Naismith said. Under those circumstances, the virus will have a good platform from which to start infecting those who are unprotected when conditions make it more favourable for it to spread.

This point was backed by virologist Stephen Griffin of Leeds University. I am worried that even if case numbers continue to go down, they will start to come back up again with a vengeance in September when the schools go back.

One solution proposed by Naismith is to vaccinate 16- and 17-year-olds across the UK. That would protect them from Covid-19 complications, which are worse than any vaccine complications they might encounter. It would also push the population closer to the level it needs to achieve herd immunity.

I think we are close to that immunity but will not be quite there by autumn, he added. So we should be thinking about whether or not to vaccinate 16- and 17-year-olds. That would help us achieve wider protection against the virus. In any case, teenagers are perfectly capable of making up their own minds about the risks and benefits involved in being vaccinated. After all, 16-year-olds in Scotland are allowed to vote.

Two further vexing issues bedevil attempts to clarify the nations route out of the pandemic: new variants and possible fading vaccine efficacy. The danger posed by new variants concern is raised by Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, in Spike: The Virus v the People, his new book about the pandemic. High infection rates raise the chances of a new variant being cooked up, he argues. That is very probably why the variants of concern have been traced to countries like the UK, South Africa and Brazil, which have had poorly controlled transmission.

These fears are echoed by Hibberd. It is possible that, with luck, the virus will not be able to mutate sufficiently to enable it to escape the immunity being provided by vaccines or previous infections, he told the Observer. Nevertheless, the appearance of an immunity-evading virus is a distinct possibility. After all, it happens with other viruses, like influenza. We have to create new vaccines against flu every year, and it mutates and comes back the next year slightly changed, and we then have to develop a new vaccine to tackle it.

At present, scientists and pharmaceutical companies are working on vaccines to tackle some of the new variants that have appeared over the past year. For example, the Oxford vaccine team led by Dame Sarah Gilbert is working on one for the beta variant, first discovered in South Africa, which is considered to be the one with the greatest potential to evade vaccines.

And then there is the issue of vaccine efficacy. Studies have shown that Covid-19 antibodies decrease over time in vaccinated individuals. This may limit peoples protection against the virus.

A study published last week indicated that the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine declines by an average of 6% every two months. Findings such as these suggest that the government may have to set up a programme of booster vaccine shots for the over-50s to strengthen their protection over the winter.

These fears were highlighted last month by the Academy of Medical Sciences in its report, Covid-19: Preparing for the Future. We are going to go into this winter and start mixing again in ways that we didnt do last year, said Dame Anne Johnson, president of the academy. In those circumstances, we can expect to see a real upsurge in respiratory infections such as flu, which we may have waning immunity against because we were not exposed to it last year.

In addition, the Office of National Statistics estimated, in its last report, that a total of 856,200 people in England were infected with the Covid virus during the week ending 24 July. That is a very big number.

So whether overall figures go up or down slightly, the current situation is that weve got an awful lot of infection around with a very transmissible variant. So the take-home message is clear: this pandemic has not yet gone away.

Exactly how it plays out is a different matter. There are so many variables involved. Indeed the only thing that is clear is that the situation is very uncertain.

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Is Covid-19 on the run in the UK? - The Guardian

Every county in the Twin Cities metro area except for Carver is in the substantial transmission category where mask wearing inside is recommended by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A number of rural counties also are in the substantial or high transmission categories.

Just a dozen of the states 87 counties have low community transmission.

The CDC updated masking guidance earlier this week to address growing concerns over the highly transmissible delta variant. The number of Minnesota counties with transmission rates high enough to get an indoor-masking recommendation has roughly doubled in just a few days.

More than 75 percent of new cases in Minnesota are believed to be caused by the delta variant, and rates are even higher in states with low rates of vaccination.

Health officials say nearly all new infections, hospitalizations and deaths are residents who were not fully vaccinated. Theres growing evidence that while breakthrough infections of fully vaccinated people are rare, they still can spread the highly-contagious delta variant.

The growing numbers of infections have created urgency among public health officials to get more people vaccinated.

Gov. Tim Walz announced Thursday, July 29, that the state would pay $100 to anyone who got their first shot by Aug. 15. The incentive is part of a program launched by President Joe Bidens administration and uses federal dollars from the latest coronavirus response bill.

Minnesota has administered nearly 5.9 million doses of coronavirus vaccine to 3.1 million residents. Nearly 69 percent of those 16 and older have gotten at least one shot thats closing in on a goal of 70 percent that Walz hoped to meet July 1.

Minnesota health officials reported five more COVID-19 deaths Friday and 702 new coronavirus infections.

The latest Minnesotans to die from COVID-19 ranged in age from their early 40s to more than 100. Three lived in long-term care and two in private homes.

The states pandemic death toll now is 7,668 with 4,505 fatalities among long-term care residents. Roughly 88 percent of COVID-19 fatalities are seniors.

The 702 new cases reported Friday were the result of about 19,600 tests for a positivity rate of about 3.6 percent. Test positivity has steadily climbed for more than a month. Public health officials say a rate above 5 percent is evidence of dangerous community spread of the virus.

Minnesota has diagnosed 612,701 coronavirus infections since March 2020. Of those who tested positive, 601,097 people, or 98 percent, have recovered enough that they no longer need to be isolated.

There are 231 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 about twice as many as there were 10 days ago including 64 in critical condition. That surge is being driven by the delta variant, which health officials say requires hospitalization in about 9 percent of cases.

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Masks recommended indoors for nearly all of Twin Cities metro as coronavirus cases grow - Grand Forks Herald