Category: Corona Virus

In the early days of the pandemic, scientists reported a reassuring trait in the new coronavirus: It appeared to be very stable. The virus was not mutating very rapidly, making it an easier target for treatments and vaccines.

At the time, the slow mutation rate struck one young scientist as odd. That really made my ears perk up, said Alina Chan, a postdoctoral fellow at the Broad Institute in Cambridge, Mass. Dr. Chan wondered whether the new virus was somehow pre-adapted to thrive in humans, before the outbreak even started.

By the time the SARS-CoV-2 virus was detected in Wuhan in late 2019, it looked like it had already picked up the mutations it needed to be very good at spreading among humans, Dr. Chan said. It was already good to go.

The hypothesis, widely disputed by other scientists, was the foundation for an explosive paper posted online in May 2020, in which Dr. Chan and her colleagues questioned the prevailing consensus that the lethal virus had naturally spilled over to humans from bats through an intermediary host animal.

The question she helped put on the table has not gone away. In late May, President Biden, dissatisfied by an equivocal report he had received on the subject, asked U.S. intelligence services to dig deeper into the origins question. The new report is due any day now.

In last years paper, Dr. Chan and her colleagues speculated that perhaps the virus had crossed over into humans and been circulating undetected for months while accumulating mutations.

Perhaps, they said, the virus was already well adapted to humans while in bats or some other animal. Or maybe it adapted to humans while being studied in a lab, and had accidentally leaked out.

Dr. Chan soon found herself in the middle of a maelstrom. An article in The Mail On Sunday, a British tabloid, ran with the headline: Coronavirus did NOT come from animals in the Wuhan market.

Many senior virologists criticized her work and dismissed it out of hand, saying she did not have the expertise to speak on the subject, that she was maligning their specialty and that her statements would alienate China, hampering any future investigations.

Some called her a conspiracy theorist. Others dismissed her ideas because she is a postdoctoral fellow, a junior scientist. One virologist, Benjamin Neuman, called her hypothesis goofy.

A Chinese news outlet accused her of filthy behavior and a lack of basic academic ethics, and readers piled on that she was a race-traitor, because of her Chinese ancestry.

There were days and weeks when I was extremely afraid, and many days I didnt sleep, Dr. Chan, 32, said in a recent interview at an outdoor cafe, not far from the Broad Institute.

Dr. Chans story is a reflection of how deeply polarizing questions about the origins of the virus have become. The vast majority of scientists think it originated in bats, and was transmitted to humans through an intermediate host animal, though none has been identified.

Some of them believe that a lab accident, specifically at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China, cannot be discounted and has not been adequately investigated. And a few think that the institutes research, which involved harvesting bats and bat coronaviruses from the wild, may have played a role.

Scientists on all sides say they have been threatened with violence and have faced name-calling for their positions. The attacks were so fierce that Dr. Chan worried for her personal safety and started taking new precautions, wondering if she was being followed and varying her daily routines.

The backlash made her fear that she had put her professional future in jeopardy, and she wrote a letter to her boss, in which she apologized and offered her resignation.

I thought I had committed career suicide, not just for me but for the whole group that wrote the paper, Dr. Chan said. I thought I had done a huge disservice to everybody, getting us mired in this controversy.

But Dr. Chans boss, Benjamin E. Deverman, who was a co-author on the paper, refused to accept her resignation, saying only that they had been nave not to anticipate the heated reaction.

Dr. Chans role has been so contentious that many scientists declined to discuss her at all. One of the few virologists who was willing to comment flatly dismissed the possibility of a lab leak.

I believe there is no way the virus was genetically modified or person-made, said Susan Weiss, co-director of the Penn Center for Research on Coronaviruses and Other Emerging Pathogens at University of Pennsylvania, who also dismissed the possibility that the virus may have accidentally escaped the lab. It is clearly zoonotic, from bats.

Others said Dr. Chan was brave to put alternative hypotheses on the table.

Alina Chan deserves the credit for challenging the conventional narrative and asking this question, said Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at Yale University. It is not easy for a junior scientist to openly challenge an established narrative.

(Dr. Iwasaki also credited a loose group of internet sleuths who go by the acronym DRASTIC.)

The degree to which the origin question became so inflammatory and polarized is mind-boggling, Dr. Iwasaki said. The fact is, we dont know exactly where the virus came from, period. It was important to point that out.

As she sipped unsweetened ice tea and chatted about her ideas recently, Dr. Chan seemed an unlikely provocateur. She insisted that she was still on the fence about the viruss origins, torn 50-50 between the natural route and lab accident hypotheses.

No scientific journal ever published her paper. Determined to draw the attention to what she considered a critical question that had to be answered in order to prevent a future pandemic, Dr. Chan took to Twitter, mastering the art of tutorial threads and gathering followers.

She is now in worse shape than before, Dr. Chan said: Now Im getting attacked from both sides. The scientists are still attacking me, and the lab leak proponents are attacking me, too, because I wont go all the way and say its from a lab. I keep telling them I cant, because there is no evidence.

Critics say Dr. Chan bears some responsibility for the backlash.

Early last year on Twitter, she appeared to accuse scientists and editors who are directly or indirectly covering up severe research integrity issues surrounding the key SARS-2-like viruses to stop and think, adding, If your actions obscure SARS2 origins, youre playing a hand in the death of millions of people. (She subsequently deleted the tweet.)

Lab-leak proponents who have called her an apologist for virologists have also been irked by the fact that Dr. Chan received so much credit for putting the question on the public agenda.

Scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology said in early 2020 that they had found a virus in their database whose genome sequence was 96.2 percent similar to that of SARS-CoV-2, the new coronavirus.

But it was internet sleuths and scientists who discovered that the virus matched one harvested in a cave linked to a pneumonia outbreak in 2012 that killed three miners and that the Wuhan labs genomic database of bat coronaviruses was taken offline in late 2019.

Dr. Chan also landed a deal with Harper Collins, for an undisclosed amount, to co-author a book with Matt Ridley, a best-selling but controversial science writer who has been criticized for downplaying the seriousness of climate change.

She denies accusations that she is writing the book for financial gain, saying she simply wants a complete record of the facts that will last longer than a Twitter feed. She plans to donate the proceeds to a Covid-related charity.

I dont need money and frills, she said.

Dr. Chan was born in Vancouver, but her parents returned to their native Singapore when she was an infant. She was a teen when the SARS epidemic hit there.

People were dying of SARS, and it was nonstop on TV, she recalled. I was 15, and it really stuck with me. There were pictures of body bags in hospital hallways.

When Covid started, many people in Boston thought it was no big deal, that flu is worse, she said. I remember thinking, This is serious business.

She returned to Canada after high school, studying biochemistry and molecular biology at University of British Columbia, and completing a Ph.D. in medical genetics. By age 25, she was a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard, and then she took a position working for Dr. Deverman, who is the director of the vector engineering research group at the Stanley Center for Psychiatric Research at the Broad Institute of M.I.T. and Harvard.

Dr. Chan is insightful, incredibly determined and apparently fearless, Dr. Deverman said, and she has an uncanny ability to synthesize large amounts of complex information, distill all of the details down to the most critical points and then communicate them in easy to understand language.

A self-described workaholic, Dr. Chan married a fellow scientist during a break at an academic research conference a few years ago.

We took the morning off and went to city hall and came back to the conference, and my boss asked, Where were you? she said. I was like, I got married. I dont even have a ring. My mother is horrified.

She remains equivocal about the origins of the virus. Im leaning toward the lab leak theory now, but there are also days when I seriously consider that it could be from nature, she said.

On those days, I feel mostly really, really sorry for the scientists who are implicated as possible sources for the virus, she said.

Referring to Shi Zhengli, the top Chinese virologist who leads the research on emerging infectious diseases at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Dr. Chan said, I feel really sad for her situation. The stakes could not be higher.

Read the rest here:

Caught in the Crossfire Over Covids Origins - The New York Times

Stephanie Chenard held hands with her son, Desmond, 8, as they walked to his school in the San Francisco Bay Area last week. Later that evening, the school district reported four COVID-19 cases in four different schools. Beth LaBerge/KQED hide caption

Stephanie Chenard held hands with her son, Desmond, 8, as they walked to his school in the San Francisco Bay Area last week. Later that evening, the school district reported four COVID-19 cases in four different schools.

"We were so careful," says Alysha Johnson, a resident of Discovery Bay, east of San Francisco. "I'm a germaphobe. When this whole thing happened, we didn't leave the house for six months."

Johnson was crushed when her toddler caught COVID-19 at a summer play group recently.

"It was a pretty big deal how sick he got," says Johnson. "It wasn't just a little sniffle."

Her 2-year-old suffered a sore throat, a cough and a 104-degree fever. The bout lasted more than a week and sickened Alysha Johnson, her boyfriend and her sister all of whom had been vaccinated against COVID-19.

Alysha Johnson holds her now-healthy son, River, at their home in Discovery Bay, Calif. After the toddler got quite sick after a play date, his mom, his aunt and his mom's boyfriend, who'd all been vaccinated, caught what Johnson says felt "like a really bad sinus cold." Tests confirmed they all had COVID-19. Beth LaBerge/KQED hide caption

Alysha Johnson holds her now-healthy son, River, at their home in Discovery Bay, Calif. After the toddler got quite sick after a play date, his mom, his aunt and his mom's boyfriend, who'd all been vaccinated, caught what Johnson says felt "like a really bad sinus cold." Tests confirmed they all had COVID-19.

"It felt like a really bad sinus cold," Johnson says. "I felt exhausted. I lost my sense of taste and smell. That was the most bizarre sensation."

Johnson is relieved her vaccination likely protected her against a more severe case of COVID-19. But the fact that kids are transmitting the coronavirus to family members is unnerving many parents all over the U.S. and putting extra stress on many households as children head back to school.

Johnson gives River a bottle in her home in Discovery Bay. Family members spent isolation together there this summer, after getting sick with COVID-19. Everyone has since recovered. Beth LaBerge/KQED hide caption

Johnson gives River a bottle in her home in Discovery Bay. Family members spent isolation together there this summer, after getting sick with COVID-19. Everyone has since recovered.

In the two weeks leading up to classes, 3,255 students tested positive for the coronavirus in the Los Angeles Unified School District. Last week, more than 3,000 students and staff members in Florida's Brevard Public Schools had to go into quarantine. And in Hawaii, some schools are pulling the plug on in-class learning entirely, returning to remote versions.

Nationwide between Aug. 5 and Aug 12, about 121,000 children tested positive for the virus, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children's Hospital Association. That's a 23% increase over the prior week.

"Time and time again we're seeing kids return to school and then come home either after an exposure or sick themselves," says Nicole Braxley, an emergency medicine physician at Mercy San Juan Medical Center in Sacramento. "The virus sheds for a couple of days before the patient has symptoms. Entire families are suddenly exposed."

Stephanie Chenard's 8-year-old son, Desmond, started third grade in the Bay Area last week. On the evening of the first day of class, she received an email. The school district reported four COVID-19 cases in four different schools.

"It's already started," Chenard texted us after receiving the email, including a tearful emoji in her message.

She knows firsthand how much a mild pediatric case can upend family life. About a month ago, Desmond started to lose his appetite. He quickly developed a fever. Chenard grimaces, remembering the moment the family learned Desmond had tested positive for the coronavirus. The news shattered the 8-year-old.

"He just burst out into tears," she says.

The family canceled a long-awaited summer trip to Lake Tahoe and instead isolated at home.

Chenard, a 49-year-old college administrator, started making calls. She notified her son's summer camp. They suspended all activity. She alerted the public swimming pool. She fretted about whether to notify the organizers of a summer music festival. The hardest call was to a friend who had just had an organ transplant.

"The exposure felt like a moral failing," says Chenard.

Fortunately, her son's case was mild. His fever broke the same day it started.

"Desmond was only sick for eight hours, but I spent 45 hours on notifications alone," Chenard says. The child's quarantine and the rest of the family's subsequent isolation also required both parents to juggle work and child care. Fortunately, neither parent caught the virus. Chenard feels grateful she and her husband are fully vaccinated.

Some families are not so lucky.

Jace Garcia caught COVID-19 playing soccer with a friend in Sacramento. The virus struck the 11-year-old in the middle of the night. Jace woke up vomiting.

He curled up in the bathroom around the toilet. Body aches racked his calves, feet, chest and head.

"Everything was just squeezing that part of the body towards the bone," Jace says.

His fever spiked to around 104 degrees. He shivered under a pile of blankets. Even playing video games did not offer relief.

"Every time I would click down, I would get a tingling sensation in my hand," Jace remembers. He tossed the controllers aside. "I felt dizzy."

The only advice doctors offered was to try to keep him hydrated.

"As a parent, you feel helpless," says Rico Garcia, Jace's dad. "It was like the longest few days of my life."

Rico Garcia worried he might contract the virus too. Each morning he anxiously took a rapid test. He hoped the vaccination he got would offer complete protection, but he caught a vaccine breakthrough case. On the fourth morning, Rico Garcia tested positive for the coronavirus. Within 24 hours, symptoms set in.

Rico Garcia and his son, Jace, enjoy a baseball game before the pandemic's start. This month, both father and son contracted COVID-19, as did Jace's mom. "As a parent, you feel helpless," Garcia says, of watching Jace struggle with the illness. Rico Garcia hide caption

Rico Garcia and his son, Jace, enjoy a baseball game before the pandemic's start. This month, both father and son contracted COVID-19, as did Jace's mom. "As a parent, you feel helpless," Garcia says, of watching Jace struggle with the illness.

"It felt like a terrible head cold," Rico Garcia says. "My brain was foggy. I couldn't think straight."

Then he lost his voice. He called in sick to the radio station where he's a DJ.

"My first sip of coffee was amazing," Rico Garcia remembers. "My ninth and tenth sip tasted like hot water. In the snap of a finger, my sense of taste and smell was gone. I went as far as to cut a lime open and bite into it and tasted nothing."

Eventually his ex-wife also caught the virus from their son. She's a teacher and now isolated. Jace is still fighting a lingering cough and congestion. He's also missing the first 10 days of sixth grade.

Epidemiologists say breakthrough cases are on the rise all around the U.S., though estimates vary widely because tallies depend on the degree of community masking, testing availability and the level of virus circulating regionally.

"Symptoms can be absent or so mild in the vaccinated, many dismiss this as a cold or seasonal allergies," Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, a University of California, San Francisco professor and infectious disease specialist, notes in an email. "In other words, you don't know what you don't know."

An internal presentation from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from late July estimated that about 35,000 people a week were contracting a symptomatic breakthrough infection in the United States. In the week leading up to July 24, about 384,000 people across the country tested positive for the coronavirus, which indicates that about 9% of new cases were likely breakthrough infections. Chin-Hong says this is probably an underestimate of the true total but it shouldn't undermine the value of vaccines in people's minds.

"At the end of the day, one can say why focus on breakthrough infections, as the vaccines are really meant to prevent people getting serious disease and dying which they are still spectacular at," he says.

It's still rare for a child to die from COVID-19 or to experience a case severe enough to require hospitalization. In states where data are available, less than 2% of pediatric cases required hospitalization and less than 0.03% were fatal.

Yet, as schools open and more students test positive for the virus, parents and teachers find themselves trying to weigh the risks. Psychologically, the increased isolation of remote learning during the pandemic has been hard on many families and especially children a fact underscored by the spike in U.S. emergency room visits by kids for mental health issues last year.

Stephanie Chenard bid her third-grader, Desmond, goodbye as he headed into his classroom last week. Screens can't replace the value of in-person interaction for schoolkids, says Saun-Toy Trotter, a psychotherapist at UCSF Benioff Children's Hospital in Oakland, Calif. "One element of their well-being," she says, "is being with peers learning, stretching, struggling, growing and connecting." Beth LaBerge/KQED hide caption

Stephanie Chenard bid her third-grader, Desmond, goodbye as he headed into his classroom last week. Screens can't replace the value of in-person interaction for schoolkids, says Saun-Toy Trotter, a psychotherapist at UCSF Benioff Children's Hospital in Oakland, Calif. "One element of their well-being," she says, "is being with peers learning, stretching, struggling, growing and connecting."

"Young people experienced more depression and anxiety because of the level of isolation," says Saun-Toy Trotter, a psychotherapist at UCSF Benioff Children's Hospital in Oakland, Calif. She stresses that screens can't replace in-person interaction.

"One element of their well-being is being with peers learning, stretching, struggling, growing and connecting," Trotter says.

She recommends that parents ask doctors and teachers lots of questions to help families weigh their personal risks and make sure schools are taking steps to keep their children safe. Schools can mitigate transmission of the coronavirus through the widespread use of masks, vaccination of faculty and staff, and better air filtration and ventilation inside buildings. Simply opening both a window and a door to create a cross-breeze can help make a difference.

Before her son started middle school last week, Trotter fired off a few emails to school administrators. The responses helped ease her mind. She says an in-person classroom experience is the right choice for her son at least for now. She's watching the data closely.

Link:

Vaccinated Parents Are Catching COVID As Schoolkids Bring The Virus Home : Shots - Health News - NPR

If evolution is a numbers game, the coronavirus is especially good at playing it. Over the past year and a half, its copied itself quickly and sloppily in hundreds of millions of hosts, and hit upon a glut of genetic jackpots that further facilitate its spread. Delta, the hyper-contagious variant that has swept the globe in recent months, is undoubtedly one of the viruss most daring moves to date. This variant is the product of unfettered transmission, and will thrive further on it; if allowed to, Delta could morph into something even more formidable. Delta is already a really strong competitor, Michal Tal, an immunologist at Stanford University, told me. It could get significantly worse.

We cant precisely predict what worse will look like. There is no playbook for evolution. Delta could continue to ratchet up its rate of spread, or it could be ousted by another super-infectious variant. But the speed that has powered Deltas transmission for months probably cant sustain SARS-CoV-2 forever, at least not on its own. Humanitys collective immunity to the virus is growing, which means the next variants we encounter might be better off taking a tack that relies a lot more on stealth. Theres some sort of tipping point where immune evasion becomes a bigger fitness advantage than transmission, Stephen Goldstein, an evolutionary virologist at the University of Utah, told me. No one yet knows exactly where that tipping point isjust that we will probably, eventually, collide with it.

This transition will mark a new stage in our extended parlay with SARS-CoV-2. Viruses depend intimately on their hostsand the global population no longer looks or acts as it did when this one was a fresh threat. A large fraction of us, especially in vaccine-wealthy countries such as the United States, now have some degree of immunity, simultaneously suppressing the pathogens ability to pass among us and pressuring it to circumvent those shields. Our defenses are upping the ante for the virus. And the virus will likely rise to meet it.

The cyclical nature of this game might sound disheartening. But nothing will ever put us back at square one. Even as the virus evolves away from us, we can give chase. As immunity builds, our dalliances with the virus will trend milder, shorter, and less frequent. With vaccination on our side, were giving the virus fewer turns at the board, and slowing the pace at which the game is played. Although we cant yet trounce SARS-CoV-2 for good, we can buy ourselves time to make our next decisive move.

In broad strokes, the rules of evolutionary play are simple enough. Researchers still arent sure where, or in whom, most variants arise, but theyre clearly more likely to sprout when the coronavirus is allowed to stick around and make more and more of itself, whether in an individual person or in a whole population. Mutations happen like typos during a viruss messy replication; the majority are inconsequential, even detrimental to the pathogen. But scattered among these genetic glitches will be the occasional windfall, a mistake that helps one version of the virus outcompete its kin. Those proportionally rare events become more absolutely common when given more opportunities to occur. The longer the virus persists, the more opportunities itll have to sample what makes it more fit, Oliver Fregoso, a virologist at UCLA, told me.

SARS-CoV-2s self-xeroxing process isnt particularly error-prone compared with many of the respiratory viruses we regularly tussle with. All else equal, thats great news: In the few short days most infected people need to marshal immune responses and purge the pathogen, the coronavirus has barely enough time to tweak its genome once, if at all. The virus that comes out is going to be basically identical to the virus that goes in, Goldstein told me. And any variants that do arise have little chance to accumulate in high enough numbers to matter. Most mutants never make it past the person whos infected, Siobain Duffy, an evolutionary virologist at Rutgers University, told me. Many that do exit are doomed to extinguish before they can locate their next host.

Read: The coronavirus is here forever. This is how we live with it.

But all bets are off when the bodys barriers start to break down. Since the pandemics start, several independent research groups have uncovered evidence that variants may have an easier time arising in people with weak immune systems, including those taking immunosuppressive drugsmeaning that immunocompromised people probably have a role to play in SARS-CoV-2s evolution, says Ravindra Gupta, a virologist at the University of Cambridge who has been studying this link. Some struggle to clear the virus for months, giving the pathogen time to spawn a menagerie of mutants. Most of the pathogens progeny will still be evolutionary duds. But the more of them that are made, the higher the chance that one will rise above the fray and tumble back out into the world. Though its tough to prove definitively, this may be the origin story of Alpha, Deltas super-transmissible forerunner. Its genome is pockmarked with an unusual number of mutations, the telltale sign that a variant may have been stewing inside a single person.

These prolonged infections cant explain everything. Deltas genome, for instance, is relatively clean. Its roots might lie in a different sort of numeric abundancemany brief infections in rapid succession.

A variants success is also contingent on the specifics of the board its playing on, and which opponent its facing. Consider, for instance, the Beta and Gamma variants, which both carry mutations that make them much less recognizable to antibodies, a trait that likely helps them wriggle their way into well-defended hosts. They appear to have gained traction in South Africa and Brazil, respectively, where a somewhat large fraction of the population may have already been infected by an older version of the virus. Delta, however, seems to have sprouted first in India, which was slammed later in the pandemic, and where far fewer people had seen SARS-CoV-2 before. In that environment, Delta didnt need much covertness to establish itselfjust a penchant for seriously speedy spread. That strategy helped Delta rapidly outstrip several of its wilier but more sluggish competitors and hopscotch across the globe.

A viruss primary objective is to spread, through whatever means it can. So far, Delta has had little reason to switch up its tactics. Although the variant appears to carry at least a couple of mutations that help it evade certain antibodiesa probable perk when it infiltrates someone with immunitymost scientists have been much more concerned about Deltas ability to hack its way quickly and efficiently into cells. The variant is so transmissibly supercharged that it can crest in the body, and probably hop into new hosts, before many of the most potent immune defenses kick into high gear. A virus doesnt need to be invisible if it can get in and out before security has time to spot it.

But the more people Delta and its comrades infect, the more they disadvantage themselves. Delta is leaving behind it people with high antibody titers, Sarah Cobey, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Chicago, told me. Those fast-acting immune fighters stick around and can rapidly purge the variant should it try its luck in the same person again. Humans are also steadily adding to the ranks of the protected with vaccines, which offer even stronger safeguards. To keep itself going, SARS-CoV-2 will need to dodge these defenses.

This, then, is the inevitable push and pull of coexisting with a virus long-term. Immunity shortens and softens infections; virus evolution stretches them back out. Once a large proportion of the population can thwart the virus, SARS-CoV-2 will need to find new ways to stick around a day or two more, Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard School of Public Health, told me. The goal is the sameto keep the coronavirus in circulationbut the virus must take a different route to achieve it. That appears to have driven some of the sneaky changes in flu viruses and common-cold coronaviruses that allow them to reinfect old hosts. The more pressure on a pathogen, the more incentive it has to escape.

Read: Will the next variant be more deadly?

In the worst-case scenario, a variant could arise that would make it like the vaccines did not exist, Hanage said. But at the moment, there is no such variant like that. And it would probably be extraordinarily difficult for one to manifest. Even the most evasive variants we know ofthe ones that have stumped certain antibodiesarent fully duping vaccinated bodies, which harbor a slew of other immunological guards. Hanage also pointed out that many peoples immune systems have been trained on different triggersdistinct brands of vaccines, unique variants, or some combination thereof. A new version of SARS-CoV-2 would find skirting all of those blockades at once to be nearly impossible.

Viruses arent infinitely mutable; sometimes, to keep themselves in contention, they must make sacrifices. Several experts told me theyre hopeful that the coronavirus might struggle to max out both transmission and immune evasion at once, requiring some sort of trade-off between the two. Some of the most powerful anti-coronavirus antibodies target SARS-CoV-2s spike protein, which the virus uses to unlock and enter our cells. If the virus altered the protein to sidestep those antibodies, it might make itself less recognizable to the immune system. But it could also hurt its ability to infect us at all.

That might help explain why Beta has, so far, remained only a supporting character in the coronaviruss ensemble cast. Another hint comes from Alpha, which didnt seem to benefit all that much when it acquired an antibody-eluding mutation last spring, despite widespread fears. There is, in other words, probably a limit to just how bad SARS-CoV-2 can get: Even the most careful dog breeders cannot turn a bulldog into a bear.

What lies ahead might, in some ways, feel never-ending, like a series of checks with no checkmate. Vaccine recipes can be tweaked to accommodate new variants, and boosters can refresh fading immune memories. But that doesnt make extra shots enjoyable to take.

Vaccines, however, arent just reactive. They are also proactive interventions that curb the number of times the virus gets to roll the evolutionary dice, cutting down on the number, intensity, and duration of infections, and the chance that theyll pass to others. A more vaccinated world creates a more hostile global environment for SARS-CoV-2. Mutations will still occur, but fewer of them will be of consequence; lineages will still splinter, but theyll do so less often. The overriding effect of vaccination should be to reduce the rate of [virus] adaptation, Cobey told me. Variants, after all, cant adapt when theyre starved of hosts to infect.

Glimmers of early evidence suggest that this slowdown has already begun. One recent study, not yet published in a peer-reviewed journal, found that SARS-CoV-2s shape-shifting rate is lower in highly immunized countries, the expected outcome of a virus knocking up against new immune walls. Gupta, of the University of Cambridge, also hopes that well someday cook up vaccines that can stamp out infection and transmission to an even greater degreeor ones that direct immune cells to hit the virus in spots that cant mutate without hamstringing it. That will force the virus into a corner, he told me. Wed need those types of inoculations less often, too. I dont envision a constant cat-and-mouse game.

This is not yet our reality. Billions of people around the world have yet to receive a single inoculation; even the vaccine-rich U.S. is deep in a dire summer surge. Deltas rampant spread is driving more disease, more deathand more opportunities for mutation in the virus. In the absence of vigilant masking and distancing, people are getting battered with gobs of virus, testing the protective limits of even recently inoculated bodies. New variants will continue to appear at unprecedented speeds until we get to the point where the virus is not allowed to replicate this often, or this quickly, Jennifer Dien Bard, a clinical virologist at Childrens Hospital Los Angeles, told me. Unabated transmission also raises the risk that some people could become viral mixing vessels: Should two variants come to occupy the same cell, they could swap hunks of their genome with each other, birthing hybrids with the nastiness of both parents in tow. Where transmission occurs unabated, that is definitely a risk, Lisa Gralinski, a coronavirologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, told me. Viruses dont want things. But if they did, it would be very close to this.

A continued arms race with the virus is inevitable; hitting the immunological tipping point probably is too. How quickly we reach it, and how disadvantaged we are when we do, are not. Masking, distancing, ventilation, and other interventions can limit viral spread, but vaccines remain our most powerful tools: They put some of the controls back in our hands, allowing us to safely accelerate our acquisition of immunity. Anyone who isnt inoculated will eventually become infected, likely within the next few years, creating many of the same immunological hurdles for the virus to clearbut with a devastating public-health cost. Theres no scenario we choose where we dont impose selective pressure on this virus, Goldstein, of the University of Utah, told me. But are we going to do it while we prevent people from dying, or not?

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Coronavirus Variants Cant Survive on Speed Forever - The Atlantic

Coronavirus latest: Hotels offer discounts to lure tourists to Spain this summer  Financial Times

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Coronavirus latest: Hotels offer discounts to lure tourists to Spain this summer - Financial Times

The Covid-19 pandemic has elevated scrutiny over how pathogens leap into humans like no crisis before it. To better understand how those events happen and to better respond when they do the World Health Organization is standing up a new Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens, or SAGO.

Now, the agency needs experts to apply.

Its much better to apply than to sit on the sidelines, Maria Van Kerkhove, the agencys Covid-19 technical lead, told STAT this week. Its much better to get involved than to sit on the sidelines, especially if its only to really criticize. Get your hands dirty. Work with us.

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The advisory group of up to 25 experts will come from a range of scientific specialties, including biosafety and biosecurity, Van Kerkhove said. Its a new group, spurred in part by the Covid-19 pandemic, but one that will continue to work with the WHO as new threats arise and previous threats rear up again. Think coronaviruses, Lassa, Ebola, avian influenza and the next big, still-unknown Disease X. The deadline to apply is Sept. 10. More information is available here.

The group will help establish frameworks for investigating the origins of pathogens early on as cases of disease are reported. As an example, Van Kerkhove said that if the group was up and running right now, the WHO could turn to the experts to figure out where the recently confirmed Ebola infection detected in a person traveling in Cote dIvoire came from, or what studies might inform us about a recent fatal Marburg case in Guinea.

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Its not about deploying this group into the field, Van Kerkhove said. Its about, what are the studies that are critically needed, what are the tools that exist or maybe dont yet exist to be able to support those types of investigation?

And yes, the group will be tasked with working on determining the origin of SARS-CoV-2. The debate has gotten bogged down in a political morass, with some pushing the lab-leak hypothesis and many scientists saying that a natural spillover from bats or through an intermediate species or multiple species is much more likely, even if at this point they cant definitively rule out a lab accident. (The U.S. intelligence communitys report on the origins of the coronavirus, delivered to President Biden Tuesday, was also inconclusive, the Washington Post reported.)

The WHO has already sent an international team of scientists to China to study the origin of SARS-2, which resulted in a report in March that supported a natural spillover. Still, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the agencys director-general, has since said all hypotheses remain on the table and that there will be future research into the question as well.

The intent behind SAGO is not to duplicate the work already done investigating SARS-2s origins, Van Kerkhove said. Rather, the advisory group will help guide the next round of studies that could help clarify where Covid-19 came from.

We want to take out the politics of this as much as possible, and really stay rooted in the science and the scientific basis, which is our mandate, Van Kerkhove said. Our goal is to move a political debate to a scientific debate, and just get on with it.

Excerpts from STATs interview with Van Kerkhove are below, lightly edited for clarity.

Why is WHO starting this group?

WHO has many advisory groups, and this is one that we are establishing because weve identified a gap of having this overarching framework to study when and where these pathogens emerge. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 is the latest in a long line of novel and known high-threat pathogens that have epidemic and pandemic potential. And there will be more.

We have an immediate need for SARS-CoV-2, but it is not to reinvent the wheel. There is a lot of work that has already been outlined that needs to be pursued, and that should be pursued now. The report in March outlined many, many studies to be performed. We understand from our colleagues in China that many are underway.

Whats your pitch to scientists who might be considering joining this group? Why should they consider doing so?

What we need as WHO is people to apply. Over the last couple of days, Ive received numerous emails saying, Oh I dont know, should I or shouldnt I? Or, just skeptical. Ive received some pretty interesting emails, some of which are not so pleasant, about, Oh this is fixed, its just too political. I understand that, because people are beaten up and bruised, myself included, but, I believe that we have a role to play as scientists, and we want to bring together those who have technical knowhow, who have field experience, who can really push this forward, so we have a scientific, transparent, comprehensive, rapid, inclusive framework going forward.

What kind of experts are you looking for?

People that have experience with epidemiology, virology, veterinary medicine, anything with microbiology, bacteriology, bioinformatics, molecular epidemiology, serological epidemiology, biosafety, biosecurity, environmental science, social science a large number of disciplines. But were also looking for people with direct experience with these types of pathogens, particular in-field experience.

We need good geographic representation and we need good gender balance. Im anticipating we will receive a lot of applications from North America, from Europe, and thats wonderful, but we want inclusiveness from all continents, all of our WHO regions, high-income, low-income. There are a lot of great scientists out there that are working day-to-day in the field on this and we hope they apply.

The first task for this group seems to be looking at SARS-CoV-2. So what will this group be doing in terms of the coronavirus?

One of the urgent tasks will be to review what is known in terms of the global studies of the origins of SARS-CoV-2 so the work in China, but also we have been following up on any studies and preprints that have suggested positive samples. Its not to redo the report, its just to say, from there, what else do we know, and what do we need to prioritize?

Its also to help with the operational plans that WHO is working on to implement the next series of studies. I want to make very clear that WHO will work with any member state where any of these studies need to be conducted. Its not about WHO going into any country to do anything. We dont have the mandate for that. We will collaborate with all countries, including China of course, to carry those out.

China has very capable scientists, many, many capable scientists, and like I said, we understand many of the studies suggested in the March 2021 report are underway. We would very much like to see the results of those studies, so we can say, OK what next?

China last month rebuffed WHOs plan for the next phase of the Covid origin study, so how is WHO trying to proceed and get Chinas cooperation?

We continue to work with China. We had a member state briefing last week on [SAGO] and the call for applications and we received very positive feedback from all member states. What I think we will continue to do is ensure that all of these hypotheses are pursued, and continue to work with China to implement these studies going forward and provide any support that would be required.

It is not about finger pointing, it is not about blame. We just have to better understand how SARS-CoV-2 began so we can better prepare for the next one, which could emerge anywhere.

On a broader level, have you seen much of a commitment from countries around the world to reduce the likelihood of additional pathogens emerging or to prepare for that? Obviously theyre still dealing with this pandemic, but are you seeing at least even planning to increase surveillance or put in plans for better mitigation efforts, for example, or to improve lab security?

I see some work in this area, but not enough is happening. There are a lot of calls for better surveillance in animal populations, theres a huge effort to increase sequencing capacity worldwide. We see a lot of efforts to build community structures. My PhD was in avian influenza in Cambodia, and I draw a lot of inspiration from that because it was the village animal health worker who recognized the mortality of poultry was slightly different from last year or the month before, and raised the alarm up from the district level through the province to the national level, and that triggered action. So there are efforts that are ongoing there, but I dont think its fast enough.

Preparedness and readiness is a constant. Its not something that starts and stops. And I fear that we wont use this traumatic experience were all in now to do enough. I want to remain hopeful because I see a lot of effort in this area, but we need the commitment and the financial support to be able to carry this out at local levels. Its a good start, and were better prepared than we were a year ago, but we do have a long way to go. I fear that well move on to the next crisis, because there are plenty more, before were in a better position here.

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WHO wants experts to investigate the origins of Covid and other pathogens - STAT

Following the Food and Drug Administration's full U.S. approval of the Pfizer andBioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, Illinois could see an uptick in vaccinations.

Meanwhile, city of Chicago workers will likely see a COVID vaccine mandate in coming days, according to the mayor.

Here's what you need to know about the coronavirus pandemic across Illinois today:

As Illinois continues to see a surge in COVID cases and hospitalizations, one of the states healthcare regions is being hit especially hard, with just one ICU bed available for an area covering 20 of the states 102 counties.

According to the latest figures from the Illinois Department of Public Health, the states Region 5, located in the far southern tip of Illinois, there is only one intensive care unit bed available out of the 84 that the region possesses.

That has occurred because the region has seen its intensive care population increase on 29 of the last 30 days, according to IDPH figures. Hospital bed availability has plummeted in that time, and the regions positivity rate on COVID tests has increased from 8.1% on July 23 to 10.8% as of Aug. 21, the last date for which data is available.

Other regions are currently dealing with ICU bed availability issues as well. In Region 1, located in the northwestern corner of the state, there are currently 21 beds available out of 171 total ICU beds. In Region 4, located next door to St. Louis in the southwestern part of Illinois, there are 22 ICU beds available, and in Region 6, comprised of Champaign County and several other large counties, there are 24 ICU beds available out of 143.

According to IDPH, at least 37 counties in Illinois are at a warning level for intensive care unit bed availabilities, meaning that fewer than 20% of the ICU beds in those counties are available.

Gov. J.B. Pritzker warned Tuesday that if Illinois' COVID metrics don't decline, "significantly greater mitigations" could be imposed in the state.

"We're consistently looking at the menu of options that we may need to impose in order to bring down the numbers," Pritzker said during a press conference."I will remind you that if we are not able to bring these numbers down, if hospitals continue to fill, if the hospital beds and ICUs get full like they are in Kentucky -that's just next door to Illinois - if that happens, we're going to have to impose significantly greater mitigations."

As of Tuesday,37 Illinois counties and Chicago were at a "warning level" for intensive care unit bed availability, according to data from the state health department.

For a county to reach "warning level," it must have below 20% ICU bed capacity, the Illinois Department of Public Health reported.

Chicago on Tuesday added four states to its travel advisory, recommending that unvaccinated people entering the city from those areas test negative for COVID-19 or quarantine upon arrival.

The four new states added include: Maryland, South Dakota, Nebraska and Colorado.

The addition brings the total number of states on the advisory to 43 states, along with two territories.

The District of Columbia, which was added last week, was removed after falling below the threshold, city officials said.

The city of Chicago will soon instate a vaccine requirement for city employees, Mayor Lori Lightfoot said Monday, however the city has yet to negotiate the specifics with workers' unions.

Speaking to reporters at a news conference, the mayor said discussions with labor unions have been "going on for a couple of weeks" and announcements will be made "in the coming days."

"We absolutely have to have a vaccine mandate, it's for the safety of all involved, particularly members of the public who are interacting with city employees on a daily basis," Lightfoot said. "It's important for colleagues to also feel like they have a workplace that is safe."

More on vaccine requirements for city workers.

With the Pfizer vaccine fully approved by the Food and Drug Administration,here's a look at where you can get vaccinated and how to schedule an appointment.

While full approval has been granted for those age 16 and older, the vaccine is still under emergency use authorization for children 12 to 15 years old. During the beginning of the vaccine rollout earlier this year, a number of mass vaccination sites were set up in an effort to vaccinate a large number of people as quickly as possible.

Now with the Pfizer vaccine's full approval, another uptick in vaccinations is possible as the U.S. sees a rise in cases of the rapidly-spreading Delta variant.

For those looking to get vaccinated, here's where you can go to get an appointment.

As cases of the delta variant soar nationwide and worries about COVID-19 grow, some parents and students have expressed uneasiness about the lack of physical distancing at a suburban Berwyn high school.

Videos and pictures from inside Morton West High School show masked students in crowded hallways, cafeterias and classrooms.

Nadia Ortiz, whose daughter, Mylani Hernandez, attends the school, told NBC 5 the lack of distancing simply makes her scared.

Her daughter agrees.

"We are supposed to be social distancing," she said. "Even though we have masks on, it may not help."

In-person classes started Aug. 16 for Hernandez, who is not vaccinated because of a medical condition, according to her mother. Ortiz said she worries about her daughter and other students, as well as teachers and staff, contracting COVID.

Read more here.

Civil rights leader the Rev. Jesse Jackson and his wife, Jacqueline, remained hospitalized Mondayafter testing positive for COVID-19, family members said.

Jesse Jackson, 79, has been fully vaccinated, receiving his first shot in January at a public event where he urged others to do the same. But Jacqueline Jackson, 77, has not been vaccinated, according to longtime family spokesman Frank Watkins. He declined to elaborate Monday.

The couple, married nearly 60 years, were admitted to Northwestern Memorial Hospital, family members announced Saturday, with their age as a factor. A day later, their son Jonathan Jackson said both parents were resting comfortably at the hospital and responding positively to their treatments.

Read more here.

Moderna's two-shot and Johnson & Johnson's single-shot vaccines continue to be available under an emergency use authorization.

Modernaannounced in Junethat it had begun a rolling submission to the FDA of data from its studies of the two-dose mRNA vaccine.

We are pleased to announce this important step in the U.S. regulatory process for a Biologics License Application (BLA) of our COVID-19 vaccine, Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel said in a press release at the time. We look forward to working with the FDA and will continue to submit data from our Phase 3 study and complete the rolling submission.

That came about one month after Pfizer's submission, which means full approval of its vaccine could still be weeks away.

Read more here.

With U.S. experts expected to recommend COVID-19 vaccine boosters for all Americans, regardless of age, what will that mean for you?

While no such guidance has so far been issued,an announcement on the U.S. booster recommendation was expected as soon as this week, two people familiar with the matter told NBC News. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

U.S. regulators have alreadyauthorized an extra dose of the Pfizer or Moderna COVID-19 vaccinesfor people with compromised immune systems, however.

Here's what we know so far.

One week before classes in Chicago Public Schools are set to resume, 49 elected officials have signed a letter, addressed to Mayor Lori Lightfoot and Chicago Public Schools, requesting what they call a safer return to in-person learning.

"We all felt that same sense of responsibility to get some answers for constituents, for families, for stakeholders," said State Sen. Cristina Pacione-Zayas, who represents the 20thdistrict.

"I have children in CPS, and Im trying to understand what theyre going to be walking into and how I can prepare and support them in that effort," she said.

Pacione-Zayas penned the letter along with Ald. Maria Hadden of the 49th Ward. Forty seven others signed on, including State Rep. Kambium Buckner.

Read more here.

Cook County's new mask mandate, which states that everyone over 2 years old must wear a mask indoors, regardless of vaccination status, begins Monday.

Under the new requirements, masks must be worn inside multi-unit residential buildings and public places, including restaurants, movie theaters, retail establishments, fitness clubs and on public transportation, the Cook County Department of Public Health said.

The mandate applies to everyone who can medically tolerate a mask, regardless of vaccination status.

Details on the Cook County mask mandate.

The Illinois Department of Employment Security publicly reminded residents Friday that federal unemployment programs will come to an end on Sept. 4, 2021.

The state noted that "the expiration of these programs has no impact on the states regular unemployment system or the claimants receiving regular unemployment benefits."

Expiring programs include the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA), which provided access to 100% federally funded unemployment benefits to individuals not traditionally eligible to receive unemployment benefits, such self-employed workers.

Read more here.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker on Friday declined to give a specific metric at which the state might impose another indoor masking mandate, leaving the door open for further mitigations but deferring to local authorities to take action, even as he called the current COVID-19 surge fueled by the delta variant a "very dangerous moment."

When he was asked about his stance on another statewide mask mandate, on the same day a new Chicago order requiring masks in all public indoor spaces took effect, Pritzker demurred.

"Well as you know, I've not been reticent to act when I think it's appropriate to do so on mitigations. And we're always considering every day what next we need to do," he said.

"I applaud the city of Chicago in taking proactive efforts here. I encourage other local governments, whether they be cities or townships or counties to also take proactive steps and we will look at the state level, whether that's an appropriate thing at some moment," he continued, adding that he looks at the state's metrics and talks to the state's top health official every day.

Read more here.

Read the original here:

Illinois Coronavirus Updates: Pritzker Warns of Greater Mitigations, ICU Bed Availability Dwindles - NBC Chicago

The FDA grants full approval for Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine

Experts suspect private companies were waiting on full approval before requiring the vaccination for workers.

USA TODAY, Storyful

Iraan, asmall oilfield town of 1,200 people in west Texas, has been struck so hard by the coronavirus pandemicthat the entire town has essentially shut down,including the school district and local businesses.

"We had had COVID before, but never to this magnitude," resident Vicky Zapatatold CNN.

Accordingto Iraan General Hospital CEO Jason Rybolt, 119 people were tested for the virus and 50 tested positive during a two week August span a 42% positivity rate.Iraan Mayor Darren Brown told CNN, "This is very serious."

Ryboltsaid he's "veryconcerned for the community and "very concerned for trying to make sure that they have the health care that they need."

Rybolt added that at least one Iraan resident has been airlifted for out-of-state care because of alack of available ICU beds in Texas. He said:"It could be 12 hours (for coronavirus-stricken people to receive a bed). It could be 36 hours.You just never know how long it's going to take."

Texas Gov.Greg Abbott has continued to push against a statewide mask mandate, as many U.S. states have. The number of ICU beds available across all of Texas has been extremely low; only 372 are available now, according to the latest state data. The closest hospitals to Iraan are at least 100 miles away.

Iraan-Sheffield Independent School District Superintendent Tracy Canter said in a public statementthat the school district had to shut down after only five days of classes because about one quarter of the staff and 16% of the students were either infected with or exposed to the coronavirus.

With school postponed with no virtual classes until Aug. 30,city council buildings are closed, and high school football, the town's lynchpin, is on hold.

View original post here:

Texas town closed due to COVID: In Iraan, nearly half its people hit by COVID-19 - USA TODAY

(Trent Nelson | The Salt Lake Tribune) Nurse Sue Day administers a COVID-19 vaccine to University of Utah student Dev Banerjee in Salt Lake City on Friday, Aug. 20, 2021.

| Aug. 24, 2021, 7:36 p.m.

| Updated: Aug. 25, 2021, 12:40 a.m.

Editors note: The Salt Lake Tribune is providing free access to critical stories about the coronavirus. Sign up for our Top Stories newsletter, sent to your inbox every morning. To support journalism like this, please donate or become a subscriber.

More than 1,100 more Utahns tested positive for COVID-19 in the past day, and 22% of them were school-age children.

The Utah Department of Health reported 1,140 new cases, 246 of them being kids in grades K-12. There were 97 cases in children ages 5-10; 50 cases in children 11-13; and 99 cases in children 14-18.

The rolling seven-day average for positive tests stands at 1,108 per day, the highest that number has been since Feb. 7.

Nine more Utahns died of the coronavirus, and four of them were under the age of 65.

The case count is down 344 compared to one week ago (1,484 on Aug. 17). Its more than twice what it was a month ago (504 on July 24), and six times what it was three months ago (189 on May 24). Six months ago, there were 833 new cases (on Feb. 24); and a year ago, there were 402 new cases (Aug. 24, 2020).

In the past four weeks, unvaccinated Utahns were five times more likely to die of COVID-19 than vaccinated people, according to a UDOH analysis. The unvaccinated were also 6.6 times more likely to be hospitalized, and 5.9 times more likely to test positive for the coronavirus.

An additional 2,826 Utahns were fully vaccinated in the past day, bringing the total to 1,551,747 47.4% of Utahs total population.

According to the UDOH, Utah has seen 8,747 breakthrough cases of COVID-19 people who contracted the virus two weeks or more after being fully vaccinated. Thats about 1 in every 177 people who are fully vaccinated.

Of that number, 499 have been hospitalized, 1 in about every 3,110 fully vaccinated people. And there have been 42 deaths, 1 in about every 36,946 fully vaccinated people.

Vaccine doses administered in past day/total doses administered 5,747 / 3,201,624.

Utahns fully vaccinated 1,551,747.

Cases reported in past day 1,140.

Deaths reported in past day Nine.

There were three deaths in Salt Lake County: two men and a woman, each age 45 to 64.

Two counties each reported two deaths: two men 65-84 in Davis County, and a man and a woman 65-84 in Utah County.

The other deaths were a Uintah County man 85-plus, and a Washington County woman 25-44.

Tests reported in past day 7,415 people were tested for the first time. A total of 12,554 people were tested.

Hospitalizations reported in the past day 438. Thats seven more than on Monday. Of those currently hospitalized, 177 are in intensive care, four more than on Monday.

Percentage of positive tests Under the states original method, the rate is 15.4%. Thats higher than the seven-day average of 14.8%.

The states new method counts all test results, including repeated tests of the same individual. Tuesdays rate was 9.1%, lower than the seven-day average of 10.5%.

[Read more: Utah is changing how it measures the rate of positive COVID-19 tests. Heres what that means.]

Totals to date 455,513 cases; 2,593 deaths; 19,829 hospitalizations; 3,076,176 people tested.

Correction: Aug. 24, 6:33 p.m. An earlier version of this story listed an incorrect number to describe the change in Tuesdays case count compared to Aug. 17.

See the article here:

Another 1,140 COVID-19 cases in Utah, and nine more people have died - Salt Lake Tribune

Coronavirus: NRA cancels annual meeting due to Covid case surge in Houston - as it happened  Financial Times

See more here:

Coronavirus: NRA cancels annual meeting due to Covid case surge in Houston - as it happened - Financial Times

For most of human history, the majority of people died of infectious disease. Scourges like tuberculosis, typhoid, plague, smallpox, and (in some places) malaria carried most people to their graves, many as infants or children. As public health and biomedicine advanced, cancers and organ diseases replaced microbes as the main causes of mortality. The control of infectious disease, and consequent doubling of average life expectancy, helped to bring the modern world as we know it into being. But paradoxically, the control of infectious disease also helped to widen health inequities, both within and between societies.

COVID-19 now appears to be falling along these familiar lines. The effort to bring the coronavirus pandemic under control has really become two distinct battles. Within Americas borders, where vaccine doses are abundant, its a fight against misinformation and hesitancy. Globally, it is a race between vaccine delivery and virus transmission.

These two sides of the effort are dangerously interconnected. The untrammeled spread of COVID-19 through large, vulnerable populations worldwide increases the risk that new variants will emerge and then roar through pockets of undervaccinated groups in the U.S. The harm done by a now-preventable disease throughout the world is a humanitarian crisis in its own right. But we are also creating an enormous risk. Every new variant carries with it the possibility of a devastating turn in the pandemic a mutation that further weakens the efficacy of the vaccines, or that causes the disease to be more severe in children and young adults.

It is tempting to push such fears aside and to insist that we learn to live with the virus. But adapting to a world where COVID-19 is endemic should not mean complacency about the global inequities that are already stark and only getting starker. In the words of the International Monetary Fund, The world is facing a worsening two-track recovery, driven by dramatic differences in vaccine availability, infection rates, and the ability to provide policy support. As these gaps widen, success in managing the pandemic is starting to correlate more clearly (if still imperfectly) with national income. In the United States, more than 60 percent of the adult population is fully vaccinated. In Indonesia, that number is only 11 percent. In India, its 9 percent. In countries such as Vietnam, Tanzania, and Nigeria (as well as many others), it is still below 2 percent. This two-track recovery, where protection against the disease mirrors wealth and power, unfortunately reflects a historical pattern that is several centuries old. The worlds only hope lies in breaking it.

Thomas Wright: The international travel restrictions make little sense

The pattern began in earnest with the start of the Industrial Revolution. Social elites were able to take advantage of new ideas and new technologies, while the working classes were crowded into factories and tenements. This widening of health disparities within societies is familiar enough. Inequities between societies are less appreciated, even though plagues and pandemics played a decisive role in the massive and enduring global gaps that formed in the century before World War I.

The emergence of new infectious diseases is an externality of modernization. Explosive population growth, rapid urbanization, mechanized transportation, the exploitation of natural ecosystems, industrial agriculture, and ever-more-global networks of trade and migration all intensified the threat of infectious diseases. Outbreaks of cholera, influenza, polio, and AIDS are only the most notable precursors of the current crisis.

The human and economic costs of new diseases are borne by all, but unequally. The societies that industrialized first were also the best-equipped to mitigate and contain the challenges of new infectious diseases. To make matters worse, European imperialism deprived many less industrialized societies of control over their own citizens at a crucial juncture. The result was a two-track world. Societies unprepared for the biological shocks of modernization disproportionately bore the costs of modern pandemics, further impeding economic development and miring them in cycles of poverty and disease that have been hard to break.

The cholera pandemics of the 19th century made these patterns vividly evident. Cholera is a severe diarrheal disease. Without treatment, a cholera infection causes a dramatic course of sickness marked by copious evacuations of bodily fluid. The lurid symptoms made it terrifying. Cholera was the quintessential new disease of the 1800s, a highly contagious fecal-oral disease adapted to spread in environments without sanitation infrastructure or clean drinking water. Much as COVID-19 seems diabolically adapted to take advantage of our highly connected, jet-setting world, so cholera was the ultimate pathogen in an age of squalid industrial urbanization and steam-powered travel. Cholera erupted in 1817 in British-controlled Bengal. Then outbreaks expanded and contracted in rapidly moving waves for the rest of the century.

Chelsea Clinton and Achal Prabhala: The vaccine donations arent enough

In the West, cholera was terrifying precisely because it threatened to disrupt the fragile control over epidemic disease that had been so recently achieved. Faced with cholera, Americans picked up the crusade for sanitary reform, while European states mobilized the first recognizably modern efforts at global health cooperation in the form of the International Sanitary Conferences. Although cholera was the most feared disease everywhere, its global impact was wildly uneven. In Western Europe and the United States, it killed by the thousands. But elsewhere, it was catastrophic. Mortality figures can be taken with a grain of salt, but in India, for instance, cholera killed an estimated 15 million people from 1817 to 1865. By 1947, it had taken the lives of another 23 million people. Cholera was born as a disease of globalization, and it quickly becameand remainsa disease of poverty and underdevelopment.

We cannot afford to let the same happen with COVID-19. It is unprincipled to enjoy the fruits of modernization while letting others disproportionately bear the costs. Wealthy countries, which are even now backsliding on their already-too-meager commitments, must redouble their efforts to ensure that vaccines are available to all, and quickly. The humanitarian reasons for action are strong enough, to say nothing of the selfish motivations. High case numbers anywhere are a threat to all, wherever we are privileged to live. We have heard public-health experts remind us over and over throughout the pandemic that we are in this together, that my choices affect your health and vice versa. We cannot forget that this truth applies globally.

Originally posted here:

Not Everyone Can Afford to Learn to Live With COVID-19 - The Atlantic