Category: Corona Virus Vaccine

Every day brings a new story about campus leaders making the decision to physically open for business this fall and sharing the extensive mitigation plans being put in place to manage the health and safety concerns presented by the COVID-19 crisis. A number of those efforts will rely on changing student behavior in significant ways. And that presents some challenges.

Ive spent a fair amount of time throughout my career trying to figure out how to nudge students in one direction or another. Rounding up participants for an orientation activity. Getting students to sign up for appointments with their adviser well ahead of registration. Pushing them to exit a residence hall while an alarm blares over their heads. Encouraging them to walk away from a fraternity party where drinks are being spiked with sedatives. Occasionally Ive been successful. About as often, I havent.

I have, though, learned things along the way, and the most useful thing Ive learned is this: information is not adequate to elicit behavioral change. Its useful, and there may even be students who, upon hearing a speech or reading an email or viewing a poster on a residence hall bulletin board, make smarter choices for the coming weekend. Its why we keep plugging away, providing that information in various forms. Its why we employ health and wellness educators, alcohol and other drug education specialists, sexual violence prevention advisers, and others charged with delivering the best information available. But information alone doesnt change behavior. If it did, people wouldnt smoke. They would not binge-eat Crunchy Flaming Cheetos. They would visit the career center in their first year on campus.

But all the visually interesting posters and all the visiting speakers in the world are not enough to guarantee successful change. Ask any student health services director for statistics on the number of sexually transmitted diseases they treat or how many unwanted pregnancies they see, and youll have all the proof you need that just knowing how to keep themselves safe is not enough for students to actually do it.

Add to this the limited time horizon that most traditional-aged college students have. Even though college is, in many ways, designed exactly to propel a student into the future, the students Ive worked with are so much better at living in the present. This is not a criticism. In fact, I envy them. I wish I was as skilled at living in the moment. Maybe I would be if my moments were as much fun as theirs.

Lessons From the Good Times

What I recognize and have often reminded myself is that much of what I have seen and responded to as a dean of students is the result of brain development. Students are rarely dumb. They are, however, often young, and the part of their brain that supports clear judgment and mature behavior -- that all-important prefrontal cortex -- is still a work in progress. Some are further along than others, of course, but Ive made peace with the fact that students are often going to do things that I, a middle-aged person, find stunningly stupid. So in many years of interacting with students, especially while serving in a role that often has to interrogate the reasoning of a student in trouble, Ive learned a few things.

Ive learned to believe in the developmental power of redundancy. I dont know who first said that, but I heard the phrase in graduate school and have clung to it ever since. When people hear a message multiple times, from multiple sources, the message starts to sink in. It can happen slowly, or arrive as a seemingly explosive epiphany that has, in truth, been building up for some time, waiting for a switch to be thrown. Either way, the ultimate result is positive.

Ive learned that students, like most of us, are unaware of just how much power they have to change themselves and their behavior. Once, I was sitting at the table in my office across from a student who was in trouble for about the fifth time. He explained in great detail how the fates were stacked against him, how the universe seemed to have singled him out to be caught in various infractions by residence life staff or public safety staff -- both of which, he said, were determined to write up every student they could. He wasnt, he assured me, a bad person.

I agreed but told him that a few weeks hence, about 400 of his classmates would walk across the stage and receive their diplomas, and, I said, Almost all of them will do so never having -- once, even -- been in that seat youre in, never having their name on an incident report. Are you sure, I asked him, youve had no role in the trouble youre in? How is it youre so unlucky? He reluctantly acknowledged that perhaps his current situation was -- maybe -- part of a pattern for which he bore some -- a little -- responsibility.

Perhaps most important, Ive learned that students are generally more concerned about taking care of their friends than themselves, and that they actually have a pretty good eye for problematic behavior in others that they completely miss in themselves. That is why most will say they dont engage in high-risk drinking but will report that many of their friends do -- not recognizing, of course, that they themselves are the friends their friends are referring to.

For the most part, I have found my students questionable judgment to sometimes be concerning, sometimes entertaining, sometimes endearing. I made enough bad choices at their age to always feel some sense of connection. What I have rarely felt as a result of their questionable judgment is threatened. For the most part, as I have often intoned, their choices, their consequences. But that is no longer the case for the staff and faculty who interact with students and who share space with them. As were seeing in settings around the world, the actions of one person asserting their freedom from restrictions, or just being careless in their actions, can cause great harm to others.

Suddenly, our students developmentally typical, occasionally selfish actions are a threat not just to themselves or their peers (as is often the case with high-risk drinking or unprotected sex) but also to the very staff charged with looking out for them, to the educators committed to teaching them. I have loved most of my students, but Im not sure Ive ever been willing to put my health, or the health of my family, at risk in order to work with them. Its not that we dont expect some risk when working with students. Anyone who works on a college campus knows the wisdom (and occasional futility) of a flu shot and frequent hand washing. It is just that the stakes have never been so high.

And yet most of us cannot walk away from our jobs. So how do we reopen our campuses this fall if our students demand it and our leaders require it? Can we stay safe in the company of our students? I go back to the lessons I have learned over many years and many conversations with students: do not rely on singular messaging. Speak with many voices and say the same thing to students, over and over. Rely on the developmental power of redundancy to help those messages sink in.

Remind students -- every day -- of their own agency, of their own power to influence the options they will have, especially if they want to continue to be on campus. They need to know their behavior -- good and bad -- can make a difference in how a campus community responds to the virus.

And dont expect students to do the things they need to do just to keep themselves safe. Their motivation to keep their friends safe will carry considerably more weight with them, and in doing so, they will make a difference in the safety of everyone on campus.

If students always followed the rules, many of our jobs wouldnt exist. And if they always did what was expected, the powerful learning that occurs when things go wrong would never happen. We need to find the right balance between risk taking and compliance that will allow us all to stay healthy and our campuses to support what we do best: learning in community. Reminding ourselves of what we know about students in good times will help us weather these difficult times.

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Students may know how to stay safe from COVID-19, but that doesn't mean they'll do so (opinion) - Inside Higher Ed

By Conrad Quilty-Harper and Layal Liverpool

Du Yang/China News Service via Getty Images

New coronavirus outbreak linked to market in Beijing

36 new coronavirus cases were confirmed in Chinas capital Beijing today, bringing the total for the past four days to 79. Lockdown restrictions in Beijing were eased in May, and the city had reported no new confirmed cases except for citizens returning from other countries for 55 days before the new cases were detected. The new cluster of cases are thought to be linked to the citys largest seafood and vegetable market, which has now been closed. Chinese authorities are warning citizens against travel to the capital and some lockdown restrictions have been reimposed in parts of the city.

Other coronavirus news

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A study suggesting that reducing physical distancing from two metres to one metre only minimally increases coronavirus infection risk from 1.3 to 2.6 per cent is being criticised by scientists. The study, which was funded by the World Health Organization (WHO), didnt consider how long people were exposed for and may have oversimplified the way infection risk changes with increasing physical distance, public health and statistics researchers told The Guardian.

The UK government will review the current two-metre social distancing recommendation in coming weeks, a spokesperson for UK prime minister Boris Johnson told journalists today. The governments chief medical adviser Chris Whitty previously said the two-metre rule would carry on for as long as the epidemic continues.

Self-reported anxiety levels in the UK have fallen slightly after they went up following the introduction of lockdown in March, although reported anxiety levels are still higher than this time last year, according to a survey of 6430 people aged 16 and over by the Office for National Statistics. 37 per cent of people reported experiencing high levels of anxiety between 30 April and 10 May. This is compared to 50 per cent of people between 20 and 30 March, the period of time when the UKs lockdown was introduced, and 19 per cent in the last three months of 2019.

Alabama, Florida and South Carolina reported record numbers of daily new coronavirus cases on 13 June for the third day running. On the same day, Oklahoma reported its highest number of coronavirus cases for the second day in a row. Daily new cases are also rising in Louisiana. More than a dozen US states have seen a surge in covid-19 cases in recent weeks.

The ban against travel to the US from the UK is unlikely to be lifted in the next few months, US government health adviser Anthony Fauci told The Telegraph in an interview last month. He warned UK travellers not to plan summer trips to the US this year and said the travel ban may need to stay in place until a coronavirus vaccine is available. UK travellers hoping to visit other parts of Europe this year also face a variety of restrictions and quarantine measures.

Coronavirus deaths

The worldwide death toll has passed 434,000. The number of confirmed cases is more than 7.9 million, according to the map and dashboard from Johns Hopkins University, though the true number of cases will be much higher.

Worldwide cases approach 8 million: The coronaviruss spread continues as the world rapidly approaches the grim threshold of half a million confirmed deaths, with 434,000 reported as of 15 June. However, researchers warn that this is still only the start of the pandemic.

Resuming international travel: Much of the world is starting to open up again, with many countries easing or planning to ease coronavirus travel restrictions. But would-be travellers face an uncertain and fast-changing situation.

Fighting multiple epidemics: A new outbreak of the deadly Ebola virus disease has emerged in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), more than 1200 kilometres to the west of an earlier outbreak that has been spreading in the country since 2018. At the same time, the DRC is contending with the worlds largest measles outbreak and the spread of the coronavirus.

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Covid-19 Fact Checkers, a podcast from Vice, pairs up young people with experts who can answer their questions relating to the pandemic. A recent episode focused on why people in the UK from black, Asian and minority ethnic backgrounds are being disproportionately affected by covid-19.

Can You Save The World? is a coronavirus social distancing game, where the player travels through a city and gains points for saving lives by practising social distancing correctly and collecting masks.

What coronavirus looks like in every country on Earth is a 28-minute film from Channel 4 News showing what daily life looks like in every country from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe.

Coronavirus, Explained on Netflix is a short documentary series examining the on-going coronavirus pandemic, the efforts to fight it and ways to manage its mental health toll.

Coronavirus: The science of a pandemic: As the death toll from covid-19 rises, discover how researchers around the world are racing to understand the virus and prevent future outbreaks in our free online panel discussion.

A day in the life of coronavirus Britain is an uplifting Channel 4 documentary shot over 24 hours which shows how the citizens of Britain are coping under lockdown.

New Scientist Weekly features updates and analysis on the latest developments in the covid-19 pandemic. Our podcast sees expert journalists from the magazine discuss the biggest science stories to hit the headlines each week from technology and space, to health and the environment.

The Rules of Contagion is about the new science of contagion and the surprising ways it shapes our lives and behaviour. The author, Adam Kucharski, is an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK, and in the book he examines how diseases spread and why they stop.

Coronavirus trajectory tracker explained, a video by John Burn-Murdoch for the Financial Times, uses data visualisation to explain the daily graphs that show how coronavirus cases and deaths are growing around the world.

Contagion: The BBC Four Pandemic is a sober documentary about the progression of a hypothetical pandemic which the BBC simulated in 2017. Fronted by science journalist and TV presenter Hannah Fry, and made with the support of some of the countrys best epidemiologists and mathematical modelers, its very relevant to todays covid-19 pandemic.

Covid-19 death rates twice as high in Englands most deprived areas

The most deprived areas in England and Wales have been hit twice as hard by the coronavirus outbreak compared to the wealthiest areas, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggests. After adjusting for differences in age, there were 128 deaths involving covid-19 per 100,000 people in the most deprived areas of England in March, April and May, compared to 60 deaths per 100,000 in the nations least deprived areas. In Wales, during the same time period, the death rate in the most deprived areas was 110 per 100,000 people compared to 58 per 100,000 people in the least deprived parts of the nation.

The estimated number of people who had coronavirus in England is continuing to fall, according to provisional results from a random swab testing survey by the ONS. The survey estimates that there were 33,000 infections outside of hospitals and care homes in England between 25 May and 7 June, down from 53,000 the previous week.

Other coronavirus news

Three major airlines, British Airways, Ryanair and easyJet, have launched a legal challenge against the UK governments coronavirus quarantine rules, which they claim will devastate tourism and the economy. The new rules, which came into effect on 8 June, require passengers arriving in the UK to self-isolate for 14 days.

Hospital morgues in India have reached capacity, with some bodies now being kept on thick ice slabs as summer temperatures reach 40 degrees Celsius. There have been more than 8400 deaths from covid-19 recorded in India so far. To date, over 290,000 coronavirus cases have been confirmed in the country. India has now overtaken the UK to become the nation with the fourth-highest number of confirmed cases worldwide, after the US, Brazil and Russia.

Millions more children are at risk of being pushed into child labour due to the economic impact of the coronavirus crisis, the United Nations childrens agency Unicef warned in a report released today. The crisis could also force children who are already working to put in longer hours under worsening conditions, says the report.

Coronavirus deaths

The worldwide death toll has passed 422,000. The number of confirmed cases is more than 7.5 million, according to the map and dashboard from Johns Hopkins University, though the true number of cases will be much higher.

Coronavirus spread in England: The south west of England has the highest rate of coronavirus spread in the UK, with an R number estimated to be in the range of 0.8 to 1.1.

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Covid-19 causes huge disruption to NHS cancer care, surgeries and A&E

The National Health Service in England has revealed how much the coronavirus pandemic has disrupted its services. The number of people in England being assessed by a cancer specialist fell 60 per cent in April to 79,500, compared to nearly 200,000 in the same month last year. The number of people treated for cancer dropped to 10,800 in April, 20 per cent fewer than 2019. NHS England said the falls are partly due to people not seeking medical treatment due to concern over covid-19, but hospitals also had to delay or stop some treatments following a surge of coronavirus cases. To make up for this, NHS England has set up covid-free wings in some hospitals and chemo-buses which can travel to patients to provide chemotherapy.

The number of routine operations, which includes hip and knee replacements, cataracts and hernia surgeries, fell to 41,000 in April, down from 280,000 in the same month last year. Data from accident and emergency services show 1.26 million people sought treatment in May, well below the 2 million in May 2019.

Other coronavirus news

Englands coronavirus contact tracing scheme was unable to reach a third of the people who tested positive for the virus in its first week of operation, new figures have revealed. The first statistics for the NHS Test and Trace system, released today, show it was able to contact 5407 of 8117 people who tested positive between 28 May and 3 June, and was unable to contact the remaining 33 per cent. The people who did respond disclosed an average of around six close contacts, or 31,794 in total, and the contact tracers managed to reach around 85 per cent of these.

Ashish Jha, the head of Harvards Global Health Institute, said that the total death toll in the US could pass 200,000 by September even if the number of new daily deaths remains flat. And thats just through September. The pandemic wont be over in September, he told CNN. More than 113,000 people have died from coronavirus in the US so far.

The coronavirus pandemic is accelerating in African countries, World Health Organization Africa regional director Matshidiso Moeti has said. Community transmission is occurring in more than half of Africas 54 countries, and cases have doubled from 100,000 to 200,000 in the last 18 days, compared to the 98 days it took to reach 100,000 cases. African countries have reported a total of 5000 deaths to date, with 10 countries, including South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria, accounting for three quarters of the total cases.

The launch of the NHSX covid-19 contact tracing app across the rest of England has been delayed further after the apps developers had difficulty getting Bluetooth radio technology to measure distances effectively. An early version of the app is being trialled on the Isle of Wight and a second version was due to be tested on Tuesday, but this has now been postponed. The NHSX software differs from contact tracing app technology based on a framework developed by Apple and Google that is being used in many other countries. The BBC reports that ministers in the UK are now considering adopting this approach instead.

Coronavirus deaths

The worldwide death toll has passed 417,000. The number of confirmed cases is more than 7.4 million, according to the map and dashboard from Johns Hopkins University, though the true number of cases will be much higher.

Coronavirus was introduced to the UK by travellers from mostly Spain, France and Italy

The coronavirus was introduced and spread throughout the UK by 1356 people who travelled here mostly from European countries, according to a preliminary study by researchers in the Covid-19 Genomics UK Consortium. The study has not yet been peer-reviewed. The researchers analysed genetic sequences from 20,000 coronavirus cases in the UK and used this to build a family tree. This revealed the lineage of the different infections and allowed the team to trace their origins. They estimate that 34 per cent of these original coronavirus cases were people who arrived in the UK from Spain, 29 per cent from France and 14 per cent from Italy. The researchers estimate that most introductions of the virus to the UK happened in March.

Other coronavirus developments

The number of people on waiting lists for NHS treatment in England could more than double to 9.8 million by the end of the year, according to a letter sent to UK prime minister Boris Johnson today from the NHS Confederation, a membership body that represents people who commission or provide NHS services. Before the pandemic, 4.4 million people were waiting for treatments, such as hernia repair, cataract removal or hip or knee replacement.

Schools in England will struggle to reopen in September, said Michael Wilshaw, the former head of Ofsted, a government body responsible for inspecting schools. He said, If youre going to insist on social distancing and a maximum of 15 in a class, we will need double the amount of space, we will need double the amount of teachers and weve got to make sure we have that.

24 per cent of people in the UK said they were experiencing at least one mental health problem in April this year, according to a survey by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) think tank. This is more than double the predicted level compared to pre-pandemic data collected between 2017 and 2019. Women and young people reported the largest declines in their mental health, according to the IFS.

Use of face coverings by the public, when combined with physical distancing or periods of lockdown, may provide an acceptable way of reopening economic activity while managing the spread of coronavirus, suggests a modelling study published today in the Proceedings of the Royal Society A.

Coronavirus deaths

The worldwide death toll has passed 412,000. The number of confirmed cases is more than 7.2 million, according to the map and dashboard from Johns Hopkins University, though the true number of cases will be much higher.

New centre of the pandemic: Coronavirus cases are rising sharply in South America, made worse by inequality, reports Luke Taylor from Bogota, Colombia.

Coronavirus and diet: Plenty of diets offer to boost your immune system to help protect you from covid-19, but there isnt any evidence they are true, writes James Wong.

FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images

Highest daily jump in worldwide coronavirus cases so far

The highest daily increase in worldwide coronavirus cases yet was recorded on Sunday, with 136,000 new cases confirmed, World Health Organization (WHO) director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told journalists yesterday. Although the situation in Europe is improving, globally it is worsening, he said. Almost 75 per cent of the cases confirmed on 7 June were from only 10 countries, mostly in the Americas and South Asia, The Guardian reports.

Other coronavirus developments

Maria Van Kerkhove, head of the WHOs emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, was today criticised by doctors and infectious disease researchers for saying on Monday that it is very rare for people to have the coronavirus without symptoms. Van Kerkhove clarified her statement today, during a live Q&A on social media, saying that anywhere between 6 and 41 per cent of the population may be infected but not have symptoms.

Primary school pupils in England will no longer be expected to return to school before the end of the summer term, the UK government has said. Primary schools in England reopened on 1 June to reception, year 1 and year 6 pupils and the governments original plan was for all remaining pupils to return for the last month of term before the summer holidays start on 22 July. Head teachers previously warned that it wouldnt be possible for school pupils to practice social distancing in classrooms.

A Public Health England coronavirus testing survey is to track the prevalence of coronavirus among those who do return to school and investigate how much children spread the virus. Teachers and pupils in up to 100 schools will soon receive coronavirus swab and antibody tests.

Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificates for 44,869 people in England and Wales between the weeks ending 27 March and 29 May, data from the Office for National Statistics reveals. The number of deaths recorded as involving covid-19 in the week ending 29 May was 1822, down from the most recent peak of 8758 in the week ending 17 April. The total number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 29 May was 9824, which is 20 per cent higher than would be expected based on the five-year average.

Coronavirus deaths

The worldwide death toll has passed 407,000. The number of confirmed cases is more than 7.1 million, according to the map and dashboard from Johns Hopkins University, though the true number of cases will be much higher.

Covid-19 in pregnancy: 56 per cent of pregnant women with covid-19 are from black, Asian and minority ethnic backgrounds, a study has revealed.

Shielding vulnerable people: On 31 May, the UK government announced that so-called shielders in England and Wales could now leave their homes. But what is the evidence behind the idea of shielding vulnerable people, and is it really safe for this to now stop?

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Lockdowns prevented at least 3.1 million covid-19 deaths in Europe

An estimated 3.1 million deaths due to covid-19 were prevented by lockdowns and other coronavirus social distancing measures across 11 countries in Europe including the UK, according to a modelling study published in Nature. 470,000 deaths were averted in the UK alone, the researchers who did the study told the Guardian.

The team analysed data on reported coronavirus deaths from Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK, up until 4 May. They concluded that for all 11 countries, interventions were effective enough to drive the R number a measure of how quickly the virus is spreading to below 1. The researchers also estimate that the lockdown introduced in the UK on 23 March reduced the countrys R number from 3.8 to 0.63 between the end of March and the start of May. Overall, the study estimates that between 12 and 15 million people across all 11 countries had the coronavirus by 4 May, about 3 to 4 per cent of their combined populations.

In the US, an estimated 60 million coronavirus infections were prevented by stay-at-home orders and other coronavirus restrictions, according to a seperate modelling study. It estimated that 530 million infections were prevented across the US, China, South Korea, Italy, Iran and France, with 285 million estimated to have been prevented in China alone.

Other coronavirus developments

New Zealand has no active coronavirus cases as of today and almost all coronavirus restrictions in the country will be lifted from Tuesday. Contact tracing will continue to be important as new cases may still emerge, New Zealands prime minister Jacinda Ardern told journalists today.

400,000 people are expected to return to work in New York City today in construction, manufacturing and retail. About 500 new confirmed coronavirus cases are reported daily in the city, down from a peak of almost 19,000 daily cases in the first two weeks of April. State and city officials say the number is low enough for contact tracers to be able to track every person who has been in contact with people confirmed to have coronavirus.

People should wear face coverings in public settings including supermarkets, offices, schools, on public transport and at any social or mass gatherings, according to an update of World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines on 5 June. The WHO also recommends that people wear face coverings if they are living in cramped conditions, particularly in refugee camps and slums.

Coronavirus deaths

The worldwide death toll has passed 409,000. The number of confirmed cases is more than 7 million, according to the map and dashboard from Johns Hopkins University, though the true number of cases will be much higher.

Lack of UK testing data: The UK government will not say when it will resume reporting the number of people outside of hospitals and care homes being tested for covid-19, after more than a fortnight of suspending publication because of double-counting.

Victoria Jones/PA Wire/PA Images

Estimated covid-19 infections have fallen in England

The estimated number of people who have had covid-19 in England has fallen in May, according to provisional results from a random swab testing survey by the Office for National Statistics. In the last two weeks of May, only 1 in 1000, or 0.1 per cent of people in England, were estimated to have had covid-19 between 26 April and 8 May that number was almost 2.5 times higher. The survey, which didnt include people in hospitals or care homes and was conducted before additional restrictions were eased in England on 1 June, also found that people who worked outside the home had 3.5 times higher estimated covid-19 rates than those who worked from home.

Other coronavirus developments

The R number for the UK remains at the same level as last week, between 0.7 and 0.9. According to the governments Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), the figure is slightly higher in England between 0.7 and 1. It is expected that any impact of recent lockdown relaxation will start to be seen on the R, a measure of how quickly the virus is spreading, in the coming week.

A British Heart Foundation survey of people in the UK with heart and circulatory diseases found that half of them say they have found it harder to get medical treatment since the coronavirus pandemic began. 48 per cent of those people cited a lack of available in-person appointments and 41 per cent said theyd had to postpone or cancel a planned test, surgery or procedure. Individuals concerns about covid-19s impact on the health service also played a role 42 per cent of those surveyed said they didnt want to put extra pressure on the NHS, and 27 per cent said they were concerned about the risk of getting covid-19 by going to a hospital or clinic. The poll surveyed 11,300 adults between 5 and 13 May, 1484 of whom have or have previously had a heart or circulatory condition.

The Lancet retracted a study that found the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine may be harmful in covid-19 patients, after three of the authors said they can no longer vouch for the veracity of the primary data sources. The data originated from US-based health analytics company Surgisphere and came under scrutiny earlier this week.

The British Medical Association (BMA) has called for face coverings to be worn in all areas where social distancing isnt possible. This follows the governments announcement yesterday that face coverings will be mandatory on public transport in England from 15 June. THE BMA also suggested that the public should adopt face coverings now, rather than wait until the measures become compulsory.

Coronavirus numbers

The worldwide death toll has passed 391,000. The number of confirmed cases is more than 6.6 million, according to the map and dashboard from Johns Hopkins University, though the true number of cases will be much higher.

Social bubbles: Socialising indoors with more than one household in social bubbles during the covid-19 crisis looks unlikely to be allowed any time soon in the UK, judging from the governments scientific advisers and new modelling.

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Covid-19 news: New coronavirus outbreak linked to market in Beijing - New Scientist News

Doug Fraser, Cape Cod Times Published 10:05 a.m. ET June 15, 2020 | Updated 10:53 a.m. ET June 15, 2020

Pressure to create a coronavirus vaccine is increasing by the day, but for a safe vaccine to enter the market, it takes time. USA TODAY

EAST FALMOUTH For 450 million years, horseshoe crabs have scuttled along the ocean floor, coming ashore to lay eggs.

You need pretty strong defenses to survive mass extinctions and the oversized predators that evolved before man came on the scene. While its helmeted body certainly protected it, the horseshoe crab, living in a bacterial soup, had another defense blood that quickly clotted to stop infection from cuts and loss of limbs.

Just as it is for this primordial animal, bacteria is all around us.

Its not dangerous until it crosses the blood wall, said Brett Hoffmeister, limulous amebocyte lysate (LAL) production manager for Associates of Cape Cod in East Falmouth. If it gets into the blood or spinal fluid, you have a problem.

Because of its quick and detectable response to bacteria, horseshoe crab blood is used in testing anything that can be surgically implanted, injected or swallowed as medication. That includes hip replacements, heart stents, pharmaceuticals, intravenous solutions and vaccines such as the annual flu vaccine, and the coronavirus vaccines now in development with potentially worldwide distribution.

While other tests exist like synthetic LAL and a human blood test, LAL bacterial endotoxin testing is the gold standard, Hoffmeister said.

Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar talked about a timeline for a COVID-19 vaccine. USA TODAY

The LAL test was first developed in Falmouth by Jack Levin and Frederik Bang of Massachusetts Biological Laboratory. Associates of Cape Cod, the first company licensed to manufacture it, was founded in 1974 by Stanley Watson, a Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution senior scientist who investigated the horseshoe crab extract as a way to measure bacterial biomass in seawater.

The company now has over 200 employees and offices worldwide, Hoffmeister said. There are only four manufacturers in the U.S.

Hoffmeister said his company doesnt anticipate a very big increase in demand for LAL to test and manufacture new vaccines. Very little is needed to test a sample of the vaccine, and it would take only a day of production to manufacture enough to assure the purity of even an estimated five billion doses, he said.

Back in the late 1990s and early 2000s, there was concern over the fate of the horseshoe crab. The crabs numbers appeared to drop to the point where birders and national bird conservation organizations like the National Audubon Society expressed alarm over a lack of horseshoe crab eggs, a primary food for endangered shorebird species like red knot along their migratory route.

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Many were concerned about a big increase in harvests by a bait fishery in which the crabs were used to attract conch, eels and other species to traps. Others worried about the number of crabs dying from handling and bleeding in the biomedical industry.

Daily limits and bans on bait fishing in critical horseshoe crab areas like Delaware Bay and in Massachusetts and other spots along the eastern shore helped bring that fishery under control. The bait harvest peaked in 1999 at 2.6 million crabs and has remained under 1 million crabs since 2003, according to a 2019 stock assessment by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission.

In that 2019 assessment, the commission estimated a 15% mortality for the biomedical field. Most of the horseshoe crab blood is in the gills, and LAL technicians only use a small portion contained in sinus sack. The animal is returned to the water within 24 hours, Hoffmeister said. Total estimated mortality for the nearly 500,000 crabs used exclusively for the biomedical industry in 2017 was 72,674 animals. Over 990,000 were caught and killed in the bait fishery that year, according to commission data.

Derek Perry, an invertebrate fisheries biologist at the Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries, said that other fisheries dwarf the impact of the biomedical industry.

Only about half of Americans say they would get a COVID-19 vaccine. Another 31% simply aren't sure, while 1 in 5 say they'd refuse. That's according to a survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (May 27) AP Domestic

In the (ASMFC) stock assessment, they say that discard mortality from the mobile gear fleet (fish trawlers and shellfish draggers) could be higher than the biomedical and bait fish combined, he said.

Although they havent been able to determine what constitutes a healthy horseshoe crab population, or a sustainable amount to harvest, commission officials said that the majority of indices indicate these prehistoric survivors appear headed in the right direction.

Perry pointed out that trawl surveys along the East Coast, with the exception of the New York area, were all showing increased horseshoe crab abundance.

Our trawl survey, with a 40 year history, had the highest data point in years this year, so our population seems to be increasing, Perry said.

His agency sends guidelines to Associates of Cape Cod on how to safely handle crabs to reduce mortality, and they are in the East Falmouth facility once a month during the season to assess the health and handling of the crabs.

Follow Doug Fraser on Twitter: @dougfrasercct.

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Horseshoe crabs may be the answer to a safe coronavirus vaccine next year. Here's why. - USA TODAY

By: Bloomberg | Updated: June 15, 2020 7:40:01 pm The WHO has recommended lifting movement restrictions in stages to test the effect of each before moving to greater openness. (AP)

As authorities the world over lift economy-crippling movement restrictions aimed at curbing coronavirus infections, the fear on everyones minds can be expressed in two words: second wave. The concern is that, once quelled, the pandemic will resurface with renewed strength, causing a repeat of rising infections, swamped health systems and orders for lockdowns. Rashes of new cases in pockets of Asia and the U.S. have added to the fears. Read in Tamil

Whats a second wave?

Its not a scientific term with well-defined parameters. Rather, its used to refer to a subsequent, serious increase in cases that occurs after the original surge has been quashed in a given area. Pandemics are caused by new pathogens that the vast majority of humans have no immune protection against. Thats what allows them to become global outbreaks. Pandemics are uncommon, but influenza is one of the more frequent causes. What often happens is that a novel variant of flu virus spreads around the world and then recedes, kind of like a tsunami. A few months later, it comes back and spreads around the world, or large parts of it, again.

Read| Coronavirus Global Updates: Europe starts to reopen borders; Macron claims first victory

What are the prospects for Covid-19?

Most countries responded to the pandemic by restricting movement, which slows the viruss spread but leaves many people vulnerable to infection once they begin to venture out again. Parts of the U.S. including Texas, California and Florida have seen localized outbreaks weeks into their re-openings. Experts are at a loss to explain why; its not clear theyre linked to resumed economic activity. There also have been scares in Asia. Travel restrictions were imposed on more than 100 million people in Chinas Jilin province, on the border with Russia, after dozens of cases were detected there in May a month after Chinas first lockdown ended in far-away Wuhan. By early June that outbreak was under control and normal life was resuming. South Korea, which began easing its social distancing measures in April, suspended plans for further relaxation in June as new infections emerged. Testing, isolating and contact-tracing remain the main tools to stop a cluster from growing into a wave.

Read| ExplainSpeaking: As Unlock enters third week, a visible lack of public confidence

What makes a first wave recede?

Influenza pandemics can be temporarily beaten back by the change of seasons, moving to the southern hemisphere when the northern half of the globe heats up during its summer, and vice versa. The virus may also have infected a huge portion of people in most areas, giving them immunity from re-infection and possibly creating so-called herd immunity, which protects those who havent been infected by curtailing the viruss circulation. In the case of the coronavirus that causes Covid-19, countries around the world adopted movement restrictions on an unprecedented scale and social-distancing measures that combined kept people far enough apart that the virus couldnt easily spread.

So how does a virus come back?

Lifting containment measures too quickly may allow cases to start rising anew. Other factors could lead to a more dramatic increase that might be clearly recognizable as a second wave. In the case of influenza, theres the onset of cool weather, a factor that may affect the coronavirus, too. Or the pathogen can mutate. This is another feature of flu, which evolves more or less constantly. In the latter part of 1918, a second wave of the historic influenza outbreak occurred and caused most of the deaths in that pandemic. Some researchers believe it was brought about by a mutation that made the virus again unrecognizable to most peoples immune systems. Another important variable is the movement of the virus to populations that havent been exposed before and dont have immunity.

Read| Explained: Will monsoon impact coronavirus spread?

What could prevent it?

The WHO has recommended lifting movement restrictions in stages to test the effect of each before moving to greater openness. In any case, experts say, the key to keeping infections low without locking down everyone is to scale up testing and contact tracing. Health authorities need to find infected people, isolate them and identify their recent contacts, so they can be tested as well and isolated if necessary. Eventually, its possible that enough people will become exposed to the coronavirus that herd immunity will develop and it will stop spreading, or that a vaccine against it will be licensed.

Why wasnt there a second wave of SARS?

The 2002-2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Asia never reached the scope of a pandemic. Though caused by a coronavirus, it wasnt as contagious as the one responsible for Covid-19. Its spread was mainly restricted to hospitals and other settings where people came in close contact with the body fluids of infected patients. Ebola is another pathogen relatively new to humans. There have been periodic outbreaks in Africa, but while the virus is highly contagious in some settings, it hasnt been sufficiently infectious to spread around the world like the coronavirus

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Explained: What are the prospects for a second wave of Covid-19? - The Indian Express

Monday, June 15, 2020 12:19 p.m. EDT by Thomson Reuters

(Reuters) - Novavax Inc said on Monday it would raise fresh capital through a $200 million preferred stock offering as it races to develop a vaccine for the new coronavirus, sending its shares up 10.5%.

The private placement to investment fund RA Capital Management was priced at par with Novavax's Friday closing price.

The stock deal is in addition to a $60 million funding from the U.S. Department of Defense to fund the manufacturing of the company's experimental COVID-19 vaccine.

Maryland-based Novavax began testing its coronavirus vaccine candidate in humans in May, with a target of producing over a billion doses of its vaccine candidate next year.

The company had $244.7 million in cash and cash equivalents as of March 31.

Novavax shares were trading at $50.34.

(Reporting by Shivani Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta)

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Novavax to raise $200 million through stock offering to fund COVID-19 vaccine - WHTC News

Hawaii may be seeing the belated effect of large gatherings held over the past few weeks, but Department of Health officials said Friday there is no direct evidence as of yet.

Memorial Day weekend and the recent protest against racial injustice that attracted 10,000 people to Hawaiis State Capitol are likely among the reasons why Hawaii is seeing a slight uptick in new COVID-19 cases, Lt. Gov. Josh Green said Friday.

This is the time to recommit ourselves to wear masks and social distancing, Green said. Were still waiting to see the effects of the nonviolent protests, which happened about seven days ago. Id expect were going to see a small surge because of close communication and some spread from large gatherings.

I was proud of our people from a freedom of speech standpoint. But from an infectious disease standpoint, I am a little worried, he added.

Lt. Gov. Josh Green said he anticipates some cases to arise after the protests held last weekend.

Cory Lum/Civil Beat

Fifteen new cases were confirmed on Friday, the largest daily increase seen in the islands since mid-April. Elsewhere in the nation, Memorial Day festivities have been attributed to upticks in cases.

Bruce Anderson, the director of the Hawaii Department of Health, said at a press conference Friday there is no evidence to date about coronavirus cases associated directly with the protests or around Memorial Day.

Other states have seen increases associated with that time frame, he said, but at the same time other states are opening up business, theres a lot more travel and people are getting out and about and theres more opportunity for contact.

Most of the gatherings that we were monitoring here were relatively small. People were respecting each other. No cases that I know of are associated with the protest.

One trend in Hawaiis recent cases is becoming more clear: many diagnoses of COVID-19 have been among families. In mid-May, one cluster of infections involved seven people in an extended Oahu family who lived in public housing.A string of cases in Kailua-Kona on the Big Island last month was later attributed to restaurant employees transmitting the virus to family and household members.

Ten of the 15 infections confirmed Friday were found as a result of contact tracing in one Waipahu household, Anderson told Civil Beat. In total, six children and four adults were found to be infected when an investigation was launched after one original case was confirmed.

Now there are 11 people in one household who were confirmed cases, Anderson said. Fourteen people were living in the home with two bedrooms. Its a very crowded situation, where its practically impossible to do physical distancing.

These types of cases are a reflection of the states high prevalence of multi-generational housing, both state officials said.

To address the issue, Anderson said that DOH public health nurses have been conducting outreach across all islands as a public education effort. In cases where they see a high risk of transmission, they have swabbed adults and children to test them for the virus. Members of the Hawaii National Guard have also assisted in specimen collection in recent weeks, he said.

Department of Health Director Bruce Anderson said public health outreach workers have conducted an educational outreach effort, particularly in areas known to have extended family and multi-generational housing.

Cory Lum/Civil Beat

The teams of outreach workers, which include nurses, interpreters, epidemiologists and other staff from the DOH Division of Disease Control and Prevention along with the Hawaii National Guard, have knocked on doors to provide guidance and also assess high risk living situations.

Yesterday, for example, Anderson said he received negative results of swabs taken from more than a hundred people who lived in a neighborhood near Sand Island.

The Department of Health is focusing on low-income areas where multi-generational living is often the norm, Anderson said. Hawaii has twice the national rate of multi-generational households, according to estimates by the American Community Survey.

We obviously want to bring the rates of disease down as much as we can in these areas, he said. We see this as a long-term focus area.

Green said testing will be an important component of reopening the state to visitors, because of the many people who work in the hospitality industry.

He is proposing Hawaii adopt a mandatory COVID-19 test for incoming trans-Pacific travelers, similar to a new Alaska policy.

Our multi-generational households could increase serious illness if our working class citizens end up spreading it to their parents or grandparents, Green said. Its the reason that Hawaii has to go the extra mile to prevent cases from coming into the state.

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What's Behind The Recent Uptick of COVID-19 Cases In Hawaii? - Honolulu Civil Beat

The U.S. government will fund and conduct key studies on three experimental coronavirus vaccines, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, tells CNN.Phase 3 trials, which typically involve tens of thousands of people and measure whether a vaccine is safe and effective, will begin with one by Moderna in July, then an Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine in August and one by Johnson & Johnson in September.The funding and trial timing were first reported by the Wall Street Journal. CNN has reached out to the companies for comment."The coronavirus vaccine effort is progressing very well and we expect more than one candidate vaccine to be in advanced clinical testing by early summer," Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CNN. "This is good news for the overall coronavirus vaccine effort."Each Phase 3 trial is expected to take place at more than 50 sites, mostly in the United States, but possibly in other countries, too. The trials, which are expected to include about 30,000 people, will begin only after there's enough evidence of safety and efficacy from earlier trial stages.The U.S. government might also plan Phase 3 trials for additional coronavirus vaccines currently in development. According to the World Health Organization, there are 10 vaccines currently in human trials and 126 more in development.Fauci said the funding decision came from the Department of Health and Human Services, in consultation with the National Institute of Health and other agencies. He also said that the testing plans still track with the timeline that he has suggested in the past: a vaccine at scale by the end of the year or early next year.Last week, Fauci said the U.S. should have 100 million doses of one candidate coronavirus vaccine by the beginning of 2021, but many doctors caution that is an ambitious goal. He has also said there will be "more than one winner" in the COVID-19 vaccine field on Tuesday.The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S. is nearing two million, and more than 112,000 Americans have died.

The U.S. government will fund and conduct key studies on three experimental coronavirus vaccines, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, tells CNN.

Phase 3 trials, which typically involve tens of thousands of people and measure whether a vaccine is safe and effective, will begin with one by Moderna in July, then an Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine in August and one by Johnson & Johnson in September.

The funding and trial timing were first reported by the Wall Street Journal. CNN has reached out to the companies for comment.

"The coronavirus vaccine effort is progressing very well and we expect more than one candidate vaccine to be in advanced clinical testing by early summer," Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CNN. "This is good news for the overall coronavirus vaccine effort."

Each Phase 3 trial is expected to take place at more than 50 sites, mostly in the United States, but possibly in other countries, too. The trials, which are expected to include about 30,000 people, will begin only after there's enough evidence of safety and efficacy from earlier trial stages.

The U.S. government might also plan Phase 3 trials for additional coronavirus vaccines currently in development. According to the World Health Organization, there are 10 vaccines currently in human trials and 126 more in development.

Fauci said the funding decision came from the Department of Health and Human Services, in consultation with the National Institute of Health and other agencies. He also said that the testing plans still track with the timeline that he has suggested in the past: a vaccine at scale by the end of the year or early next year.

Last week, Fauci said the U.S. should have 100 million doses of one candidate coronavirus vaccine by the beginning of 2021, but many doctors caution that is an ambitious goal. He has also said there will be "more than one winner" in the COVID-19 vaccine field on Tuesday.

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S. is nearing two million, and more than 112,000 Americans have died.

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Fauci: US government to fund and conduct studies on three possible coronavirus vaccines - KCRA Sacramento

Thats the beauty of these DNA vaccines, said Wolfgang W. Leitner, the chief of the innate immunity section at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. They are simple and fast in terms of development.

Nor are vaccine scientists concerned about the supposed secret sauce. In fact, its quite the opposite: They are skeptical precisely because the technology behind DNA vaccines has been around for decades and has been applied toward so many infectious diseases H.I.V., the flu, malaria yet none of the vaccines have made it to market.

They believe that this approach is capable of producing immunity. Already, DNA vaccines have been licensed for use in pigs, dogs and poultry. But the big if, according to Dr. Dennis M. Klinman, a vaccine scientist who worked at the Food and Drug Administration for 18 years, is whether one will ever be able to generate strong enough an immune response in humans.

Even though Ms. Wiley had read the packet on the science of it all, the next step felt like entering uncharted territory.

Shortly after the initial injection, a nurse handed Dr. Ervin a device resembling an electric toothbrush. He pressed the head which contains three tiny needles instead of bristles over the raised skin on her arm, where shed just had a shot. Then he zapped her.

It was not painful, but its unlike anything Ive ever experienced, Ms. Wiley said.

The carefully calibrated electrical pulses basically steer the DNA into the cells by briefly opening up pores in their membrane, according to David B. Weiner, the director of the vaccine and immunotherapy center at the Wistar Institute and an adviser to Inovio.

Although it may sound fantastical, the technology, called electroporation, dates to the 1980s, when a similar approach was first used to make transgenic plants, according to Dr. Leitner.

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Guaranteed Ingredient in Any Coronavirus Vaccine? Thousands of Volunteers - The New York Times

So much is still unknown about COVID-19. Why do some healthy people fall severely ill, while others may not show symptoms? Two Hawaii researchers are hoping to find out.

Alika Maunakea, a biomedical researcher at the University of Hawaii John A. Burns School of Medicine and Ruben Juarez, a mathematical economist at the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, are looking to track the recovery of Hawaii COVID-19 patients who have cleared quarantine and can donate blood at the medical school.

Maunakea and Juarez want to explore what the human immune system says about COVID-19 and find more clues about what can halt its progression. Ultimately, they hope to identify ways to prevent patients from falling severely ill, and understand underlying disparities not only in infection rates but also severity and recovery of COVID-19, said Maunakea.

We want to collect some baseline information on recovering individuals because thats something we dont really have an understanding of right now, especially in Hawaii, he said.

Local researchers want to use antibody testing to understand immune response to COVID-19. The results, they say, would ideally help vulnerable populations in preventing severe health issues caused by the virus.

Hawaii Pacific Health

Those who are invited to participate are people who have tested positive for COVID-19 within the past 60 days and who are cleared from quarantine. Participants will be asked to donate a small blood sample once a week for six weeks at the UH medical school.

A coronavirus infection can not only trigger fever, coughing and shortness of breath, but gastro-intestinal problems, as well. In some cases the body may overreact in its response, which can lead to worst case scenarios: pneumonia, severe respiratory complications, kidney failure or death.

Theres a lot of variability in peoples ability to recover. Several risk factors have crystallized during the first six months of the pandemic: elderly people and those with preexisting medical conditions have a higher risk for complications. Research is also underway about why the disease has taken a higher toll on some people based on sex or ethnicity, often tied to socioeconomic factors.

By examining the development of antibodies, Maunakea and Juarez want to track patients immune response and use the science of immune health to address COVID-19 disparities.

During the course of infection, symptoms can appear belatedly. But once those symptoms subside, there is still vital information provided by antibodies.

Antibody tests could yield more information about people who had asymptomatic cases, they say.

Were looking at how individuals recover from the infection, because we dont really understand to what degree of viral antibodies they may have produced and what their inflammatory response may look like during the course of infection, said Maunakea.

There are certain biological pathways, such as microbiome composition, that can either lead to resilience against the virus or contribute to complications, he said.

The goal is to improve ways to target which patient populations will need most help, Juarez said.

What are the diseases like diabetes that we should be paying more attention to? he said. If were able to design this and be able to get the results on the interactions on the microbiome with the disease it could potentially tell you or prescribe things you need to target, things like diet, or nutrition.

The researchers will share what they find with others across the U.S. working on similar studies. Eventually, as Hawaii reopens its doors to trans-Pacific visitors, Juarez says he hopes the research will assist state lawmakers with policy decisions.

This week, Gov. David Ige said COVID-19 testing is under discussion as a possible way to vet travelers arriving in Hawaii. Juarez says serological or blood testing could help in tandem with their research, since it can provide a historical picture of a patients possible immunity.

This can help us understand what serological testing could be done in an appropriate way, Juarez said.

More research is being conducted at the medical school.

Researchers there announced Friday they will conduct the states first outpatient clinical trial in hopes of finding a COVID-19 treatment. Theyre searching for 40 adults with active infections to participate.

Dr. Cecilia Shikuma, Professor of Medicine at JABSOM and the lead investigator for this study, said research patients will be placed on either a placebo (sugar pill) or telmisartan, a blood pressure control medication.

We hope to find preliminary evidence that taking the drug will also prevent much of the harmful effects of the virus, she said. It is an advantage that telmisartan is already FDA approved and much of the safety concerns of this drug is already known.

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Hawaii Researchers Search For Clues To The Mysteries Of COVID-19 - Honolulu Civil Beat

As California reopened another large sector of its businesses Friday, the number of coronavirus cases continued on its upward trajectory and the death toll neared 5,000.

The state recorded its largest one-day increase in new cases Thursday, logging a total of 3,620 new infections and 79 additional deaths.

Los Angeles County accounted for nearly half of the increase. Public health officials reported nearly 1,850 new cases Thursday the largest one-day increase since the pandemic began and 50 related deaths. Of the new cases, 600 were from a backlog of test results, officials said.

L.A. County has now recorded more than 68,000 cases of the virus, almost half of the states case count of more than 143,000. The cumulative death toll in L.A. County 2,818 represents 57% of the states fatalities, despite the county being home to one-quarter of Californias population.

The continued rise comes as L.A. County took another step toward easing stay-at-home rules put in place to slow the virus spread. Friday marked the first day that gyms, fitness facilities, museums, swimming pools and hotels for leisure travel were permitted to reopen, and music, film and television production was allowed to resume.

Officials have always expected an increase in the number of cases as the strictest version of the stay-at-home order was gradually lifted.

The question now is whether COVID-19 will require the hospitalization of a moderate number of people, which the hospital system can handle, or grow into a surge of severely ill patients that will overwhelm intensive care units. It can take two to four weeks before hospitals start seeing a surge in patients after theyve been infected.

Hospitalizations have continued to decline slightly, but the pace has slowed since last month.

The most recent three-day average of the daily number of hospitalized patients represented a decline of about 1%, according to the latest figures from the Public Health Departments dashboard of reopening metrics. In late May, the decline was hovering at 15% to 16%.

As of Thursday, 1,416 confirmed coronavirus patients were hospitalized, with 29% of them in intensive care.

Another unknown is whether the increase in is because more people are contracting the virus, or it is a result of increased testing thats enabling health professionals to identify cases that would have otherwise gone undetected.

For that reason, officials are keeping an eye on the positivity rate, which represents the proportion of people who have tested positive out of all those who have been tested. So far, that number continues to decline.

As of Thursday, 746,000 people in L.A. County had been tested and received their results, with about 8% testing positive. In late May, the county reported a positivity rate of 8.5%, and in late April, it was 14%.

Still, theres also evidence that the spread of the virus is rising.

Before the county began easing stay-at-home requirements last month, the effective transmission rate of the coronavirus was in a good spot: Every infected person on average was infecting fewer than one other person, said Dr. Christina Ghaly, L.A. Countys director of health services.

But last Friday, Ghaly announced that the transmission rate had risen above 1.

The increase showed up a little more than two weeks after L.A. County allowed many retail stores to open for pickup service.

The model predicts more firmly that the spread of COVID-19 in the Los Angeles County area is likely to increase gradually over time, Ghaly said.

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California is on the cusp of 5,000 COVID-19 deaths - Los Angeles Times