Will there be a coronavirus vaccine this year? What you …
October 3, 2020
Experts are hopeful that a vaccine against the SARS-CoV-2 virus will become available sooner rather than later.
Will there be a coronavirus vaccine before the Nov. 3 presidential election? Incumbent US President Donald Trump certainly hopes so. But even if his long-shot prediction were to come true, the realities of producing, distributing and administering one or more COVID-19 vaccines mean it could still take months before most people in the US received one -- and possibly even longer before life returns to some semblance of normal. That hasn't stopped the Trump administration from ratcheting up expectations.
And vaccine manufacturers aren't the only ones responding to pressure from the White House to hurry along the approval of a vaccine, either. The New Yorker reports that some Chinese officials are taking Trump's timeline seriously enough to rush approval of their own vaccines. That revelation comes on the heels of another investigation by the New York Times that details how China has been administering significant numbers of experimental coronavirus vaccines outside the typical testing process. Many worry that a similar disregard for safety protocols could lead to the premature approval of a vaccine in the US.
Currently, there are seven vaccine candidates being tested in the US, three of which are nearing the final stages needed for Food and Drug Administration approval. Considering SARS-CoV-2 -- the virus that causes COVID-19 -- was only discovered less than a year ago, the progress is actually happening at a faster clip than ever before in the history of infectious disease (vaccines take, on average,about 10.7 years to develop), despite Trump's claim that vaccine development is being intentionally stifled.
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Here, we survey the current landscape for a developing coronavirus vaccine. This article updates frequently and is intended to be a general overview and not a source of medical advice. If you're seeking more information about coronavirus testing, here's how to find a testing site near you.
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An effective coronavirus vaccine might be the only way to bring a stop to preventative measures, like social distancing and face masks.
Several acceleration efforts are currently underway, like theWhite House's Operation Warp Speed, which is meant to cut through regulatory red tape to speed up vaccine development and be ready to distribute vaccines as soon as they receive FDA approval. So far, the US government haspledged over $10 billionto several vaccine manufacturers to secure a total of 800 million vaccine doses.
Vaccines typically take about10 to 15 years to developand approve, through four phases that includehuman trials. But with Operation Warp Speed, rather than submitting all sections of the application after all four phases are done, approved vaccine projects can submit data to the FDA bit by bit.
Meanwhile, the program is also financially backing efforts to start manufacturing doses while clinical trials are still ongoing. That means if and when those vaccines do get approved, there will already be a store of doses ready to distribute nationally. "I would hope that by the time we get well into the second half of 2021 that the companies will have delivered the hundreds of millions of doses they have promised," Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told Forbes in August.
Experts say recent surges in coronavirus cases aren't merely the result of the US doing more testing, as a higher percentage of those tested are coming up positive compared to earlier stages of the pandemic.
Here's a quick look at some of the frontrunners in the race to find a vaccine for COVID-19, including where the vaccines are being developed, where they are on testing them, and when scientists think they might be ready for widespread distribution, if known.
Oxford University/AstraZeneca (UK):AstraZeneca has paused testing of its vaccine, which it had begun on100,000 human volunteers in at least three countriesand was preparing to begin in the US. Lead researcher Dr. Sarah Gilbert had initially said they're aiming for a fall 2020 release, which may now be delayed. However, UK Health Minister Matt Hancock has said such a pause is "not necessarily" a setback.
Moderna (US): An apparent scuffle with government regulatorsdelayed large-scale human testing, butModerna's CEO has told Barron's he still expects the company will know by Thanksgiving if the vaccine is safe and effective and should be able to distribute it in early 2021 if it is.
Pfizer (US): Although its four COVID-19 vaccine candidates are still in early-stage human trials, two of them have been fast-tracked by the FDA. Pfizer's chief business officer told the US Congress the company may be ready to apply for FDA approval by October.
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SinoVac (China): Currently testing its vaccine on about 10,000 human volunteers in China and about 9,000 in Brazil and is set to begin testing on about 1,900 test subjects in Indonesia soon. CEO of BioPharma, SinoVac's Indonesian partner, has said he expects the vaccine to be ready by early 2021.
SinoPharm (China): Currently testing about 15,000 volunteers in the Middle Eastin a trial the state-owned company expects to last three to six months. Early results suggest the drug is safe and at least somewhat effective. SinoPharm recently built a second facility to manufacture the vaccine, doubling its capacity to about 200 million doses per year.
CanSino Biologics (China): Set to begin large-scale human trials this summer, CanSino's vaccine has already been approved for the Chinese military. The vaccine is based on a modified common cold virus, which some experts warn could make it less effective than other vaccine efforts.
Wearing a face mask remains the surest way of preventing transmission of the coronavirus.
We probably won't know until next year, but Fauci has suggested it might requireseveral different vaccinesmade and distributed by different labs to bring an end to the pandemic, in apaper published May 11 in the journal Science. He also has said he foresees different vaccines being given to different patient populations. For example, one vaccine for elderly or other high-risk patients, another for healthy adults, another for children, etc.
Coronaviruses are a large class of viruses andso far there are no vaccinesfor any of them. While there are promising early results, there's no guarantee of a vaccine by 2021. Statistically, only about 6% of vaccine candidates ever make it through to market,according to a Reuters special report.
Early evidencesuggests that the coronavirus doesn't appear to mutateas quickly or often as the flu, and it's thought that thevirus has not yet mutated significantly enoughto disrupt vaccine development -- although our knowledge could change.
Most experts expect a vaccine for the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, by 2021.
The longer we go without a vaccine, the more likely focus will shift toward treatments, such as theexperimental antiviral drug remdesivir, which has reportedly shown promising results, and dexamethasone, a steroid that doctors say increases survival rates among the most serious cases. With effective therapeutic treatments, many viruses that used to be fatal are no longer death sentences. Patients with HIV, for example, can now expect to enjoythe same life expectancyas non-HIV-positive individuals, thanks to tremendous advances in treatment.
Eventually, the global population may reach the 60% to 70% rate required forherd immunityto protect those who aren't immune, which is, ultimately, the goal of a vaccine.
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Will there be a coronavirus vaccine this year? What you ...