Coronavirus global map
As COVID-19 (coronavirus) spreads across the globe, it is helpful and interesting to track the transmission patterns through a coronavirus map.
The Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center has put together a fantastic visual, which maps coronavirus COVID-19 cases around the world.
If youre looking for up to date numbers on coronavirus in your area, this is a great resource to use. Please beware that there are quite a few sites out there that host a similar looking platform but contain malware or viruses. To learn more specifics surrounding the threat of visiting these scam sites and a shortlist of sites to NOT visit, head over to Thomas Brewsters article here.
COVID-19 cases through time.
As you can see in the figure above, the Johns Hopkins mapping platform provides several useful displays. Here we have the number of Coronavirus COVID-19 cases globally through time. While China initially experienced exponential growth, the number of new cases has slowed dramatically in recent days.
Conversely, the number of cases outside of China is at the early stages of an exponential growth pattern at the moment.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases in the United States broken down by state.
While the Johns Hopkins platform does not separate county-level COVID-19 cases, it provides a breakdown by state. In the FAQ, they state that the decision to update on the state level was to maintain accuracy and timeliness of updates, with the eventual goal to add county-specific information.
Curious what state has the lowest number of reported cases of COVID-19? West Virginia at this time has zero reported cases of the novel coronavirus. After that, it is a tie between North Dakota and Alaska, with only 1 confirmed case throughout each state. Washington state, on the other hand, has the highest number of recorded coronavirus cases at 769.
Coronavirus map with numbers on cases, breakdown by country, etc.
Taking a look at the entire platform youll see tons more information, including the total number of cases globally at 174,884. These statistics are updated as of this morning, 3/16/2020 at 9:13 AM.
Of those 174,884 cases, there have been 6,705 deaths, equaling an average death rate of 3.8%. Nearly half, 44%, of the people with COVID-19 have recovered, most of which are from Hubei, China.
Statistics on total confirmed cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) as well as deaths and recoveries in ... [+] the United States.
Zooming into specifically the United States you can see there have been 3,813 reported cases thus far. Of those 3,813 cases, there have been 69 deaths and 12 recoveries.
The death rate in the United States is significantly lower than the global death rate thus far, at 1.8% compared to 3.8% globally. Keep in mind that the death rate will lag the rapid onset of cases in the United States, thus the lower death rate in the United States may go up with time.
In addition to its severe cost to human life, the novel coronavirus has wreaked havoc on a number of industries including airlines, cruises, and conferences. As people and governments and public health experts stress the importance of social distancing as a way to stem the spread of the contagion, restaurants are seeing major declines in patronage. Meanwhile, newly announced city-wide closures of restaurants stand to make the trend more severe.
We used data from restaurant reservation system OpenTable to look at the year-over-year change in restaurant diner numbers on three consecutive Saturdays in February and March. You can see in the chart below the abrupt change in the number of seated diners. In New York City and Boston, patronage was down 64 percent on Saturday, March 14, compared with the same night a year earlier. Indeed, every major city appears to have felt a severe drop:
On Sunday, governments in Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, New York, and Washington state officially announced bars and restaurants would be closed to sit-down diners and limited to takeout orders and delivery. When new data becomes available, the declines will likely look even worse. Other cities, such as Washington, DC, have placed restrictions on bars and restaurants. Among the various restrictions are mandates asking that these places only fill to half capacity or that tables and booths be separated by at least six feet so that diners are not too tightly packed. Many restaurants had already closed on their own accord, before these measures.
Heres what the decline in patronage looks like for a select few large cities over a longer period of time:
It remains to be seen how allowing takeout or delivery could help mitigate sales losses for restaurants in cities with restrictions.
More than 5 million people work in foodservice or related jobs in the US, and the foodservice industry is under particular strain from these closures, as many of its employees dont have paid sick leave or other ways to compensate them for declining business.
After facing criticism, Darden, the parent company behind restaurant chains like Olive Garden, recently instated a sick leave for its workers. There are still growing concerns that many smaller, independently owned bars and restaurants might not be able to do so.
When it released its data set, OpenTable provided some advice to diners albeit advice that could benefit its business. Please support your local restaurants during this turbulent time, as they are a vital part of our communities. Many operate on thin margins and fear staff layoffs and shut downs, the company said. Home delivery through the OpenTable app is a good alternative to dining out. Another option is to buy restaurant gift cards for future use.
Other industries like travel and retail will have to find their own solutions for dealing with loss of business from coronavirus. The timeline for dealing with the pandemic, including through social distancing, remains unclear, and it could be years before we comprehend the long-term economic impact of this crisis.
A passengers temperature is taken on arrival at MurtalaMuhammedInternational Airport. On 27 February, Nigeria became the first sub-Saharan country to report a COVID-19 case.
By Linda NordlingMar. 15, 2020 , 7:00 PM
CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICALate on Sunday evening, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, in a televised address to the nation, declared that COVID-19, the respiratory disease spreading globally, had become a national disaster. The declaration allows his government to access special funding and instigate harsh regulations to combat the viral outbreak. Never before in the history of our democracy have we been confronted by such a severe situation, Ramaphosa saidbefore announcing a raft of measures to curb the virusspread, including school closures, travel restrictions, and bans on large gatherings.
So far, the official numbers seemed to suggest that sub-Saharan Africa, home to more than1 billion people, had been lucky. The interactive map of reported COVID-19 cases run by Johns Hopkins University shows big red blobs almost everywhereexcept sub-Saharan Africa.
But now the numbers are rising quickly. South Africa, which had its first case 10 days ago, now has 61. According to Ramaphosa, the virus has begun spreading inside the country. And just yesterday, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, and Namibia all reported their first cases, bringing the number of affected countries to 23. Some scientists believe COVID-19 is circulating silently in other countries as well. My concern is that we have this ticking time bomb,says Bruce Bassett, a data scientist at the University of Cape Town who has been tracking COVID-19 data since January.
And although Africas handling of the pandemic has received scant global attention so far, experts worry the virus may ravage countries with weak health systems and a population disproportionately affected by HIV, tuberculosis (TB), and other infectious diseases. Social distancingwill be hard to do in the continents overcrowded cities and slums.
We really have no idea how COVID-19 will behave in Africa, says pediatrician and HIV researcher Glenda Gray, president of the South AfricanMedical Research Council. Last month, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who is Ethiopian, said his biggest concern was COVID-19 spreading in countries with weak health systems.
Sub-Saharan Africa detected its first case only on 27 February, in an Italian man who had traveled to Nigeria. Most other cases since then were importedfrom Europe; fewer came from the Americas and Asia. But until today, there were no examples of community spread.
Thats not simply because of a lack of testing. More than 40 countries in Africa now have the ability to test for COVID-19, up from only two during the early stages of the outbreak in China. But the focus of African COVID-19 surveillance has been at countriespoints of entry, and testing has targeted people with a recent travel history to outbreak areas abroad. However, screening passengers for fever hasshown to be largely ineffective, because it doesnt catch people still in their incubation phaseup to 14 days for COVID-19. It also wont detect cases that occur in African communities. I do think that cases are slipping through the net. There is an urgent need to investigate and address this point, says Francine Ntoumi, a parasitologist and public health expert at Marien Ngouabi University in the Republic of Congo.
One way to find out whether the disease is spreading in the community is by looking at patients presenting with flulike illnesses at clinics and hospitals. The number of such patients isnt increasing yet in Durban, which is inKwaZuluNatal,the province with South Africas highest HIV infection rate, says Salim Abdool Karim, director of the Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa. Nor are they seeing a rise in older patients with acute respiratory distress. Based on this, I feel reasonably confident that we do not have widespread community spread that is undetected, Abdool Karim says.
But he thinks its just a matter of time before imported cases of COVID-19most of whom would be relatively wealthy people who can afford to traveltrickle down to the countrys most vulnerable communities. Patients who came from Europe will likely have interacted with South Africans prior to their diagnosis, including household help, who often take crowded minibuses to their homes in low-income areasperfect conditions for COVID-19 to spread. I think it is inevitable that we will have a substantial epidemic, Abdool Karim says.
Another way to reality-check reported COVID-19 cases is to scour surveillance systems that track influenzalike illnesses for unusual spikes. The Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System is showing elevated levels for some African countries, says John Nkengasong, director of the African Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), which is based in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. But that might be for reasons other than COVID-19, he says, like improvements in the quality of surveillance data. Its also unclear how sensitive such detection methods are. In the United States, where the reported caseload is much higher than in Africa, scientists are seeing potential signals in data sets tracking influenzalike illness in older age groups, which are disproportionately afflicted by COVID-19, says Yale University epidemiologist Dan Weinberger. But whether that is disease or increased health care seeking is another matter, Weinberger tweeted in response to a question fromScience.
Africa CDC is working with countries to make suresamples sent to national surveillance sites that test negative for influenza or other known respiratory illness are screened for COVID-19 as well, Nkengasong says. That may help provide further clarity on the question of possible undetected cases.
We really have no idea how COVID-19 will behave in Africa.
Sub-Saharan Africa has one major advantage when it comes to COVID-19: Its average age is the lowest in the world. (The median age is less than20.) Children rarely get sick from COVID-19, and most young adults appear to suffer mild symptoms; older people have a significantly higher risk of severe disease and death. Only 3% of sub-Saharan Africas population is older than65, compared with about 12% in China.
Some scientists also think the high temperatures in many African countries may make life harder for the virus that causes COVID-19, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Grey thinks thats plausible; South Africas flu season only starts in April when it gets colder. But whether COVID-19 will turn out to be a seasonal disease is still very much an open question.
Many other factors could make the pandemic worse in Africa. It will be hard to apply the interventions that have beaten back the virus to very low levels in China and have helped South Korea keep the epidemic more or less in check. Several countries have already introduced rules to thwart spread; Rwanda announced it would close places of worship, schools, and universities after its first case. But social distancing may be impossible in crowded townships, and its not clear how confinement would work in African households where many generations live together, Ntoumi says. How do you protect the elderly, how can you tell village populations to wash their hands when there is no water, or use gel to sanitize their hands when they dont have enough money for food? Im afraid it will be chaos, she says.
And many African countries simply dont have the health care capacity to look after severely ill COVID-19 patients. A 2015 paper found that Kenya, a nation of 50 million people that declared its first case a few days ago, only had 130 intensive care unit beds and only about 200 specialized intensive care nurses. Many other countries face similar constraints, says Ifedayo Adetifa, a clinical epidemiologist at the KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme: Broad-based population pyramid or not, with no universal health care and no health insurance, we simply cant afford to have many COVID-19 cases because we cant manage the most severe cases.
The high rates of other diseases could further complicate matters. The most important thing for us is to describe the natural history of COVID-19 in South Africa to see if TB and HIV makes it worse, Gray says. Chances are that it will, based on experience with other respiratory infections. Last week, the Academy of Sciences of South Africa warned that people living with HIV are eight times more likely to be hospitalized for pneumonia caused by the influenza virus than the general population, and are three times more likely to die from it.
If cases continue to increase in South Africa, its scientists stand ready to study potential therapies. The country has a wealth of expertise and infrastructure for running randomized placebo-controlled trials (RCTs), for instance of HIV and TB drugs and vaccines. What were doing is trying to quickly identify sites so that, if this thing takes off, the big hospitals that have the capacity to do RCTs are ready to participate in treatment research, says Helen Rees, executive director of the Wits Reproductive Health and HIV Institute at the University of the Witwatersrand. Other research priorities for the country include finding ways to keep mild cases out of hospitalsto prevent the health system from becoming overwhelmedand finding the best ways topreventhealth care workers and other at-risk groups from becoming infected, Rees adds.
The sudden and prolonged shutdown of New York Citys museums and its iconic Broadway theaters. Restaurants and bars also closed except for take out and delivery. Hotels struggling to stay open in the face of a wave of canceled reservations. Movie theaters shuttered. The evaporation of nearly all business and leisure travel to the city.
The coronavirus pandemic is all but bringing life to a halt in the nations largest city, slamming the brakes on what had been a robust economy and leaving New York, which has more than 25,000 restaurants and 120,000 hotel rooms, confronting a dire threat that experts say will surely lead to sweeping layoffs and business failures.
The fallout could be more widespread than the economic damage from either of the past two crises the city had faced the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in 2001 or the 2008 financial crisis said Ronnie Lowenstein, director of the citys Independent Budget Office. Economic activity slows and time stops, she said. Everything gets affected.
Both of those events caused significant harm to the citys financial health, Ms. Lowenstein said, but in both cases the city was rescued by huge infusions of federal aid.
But the coronavirus is spreading from coast to coast, leaving New Yorks city and state officials pleading for help in a large crowd of their counterparts, she said.
If it was one city under siege like 9/11, thats one thing, Ms. Lowenstein said. But the coronavirus pandemic is going to be disastrous for a lot of economies across the country, she added.
New York is also particularly exposed because of its heavy dependence on domestic and foreign visitors who come to the city to watch shows, visit museums and take advantage of its vibrant night life.
The city is likely to lose as many as 500,000 jobs in businesses that cater to tourists and people moving about the city, said James Parrott, director of economic and fiscal policies at the Center for New York City Affairs at The New School. In one month, their lost wages amount to $1 billion, he added.
Mr. Parrott said that those industries included hotels, restaurants, museums, movie and television production and ride-hailing apps like Uber and Lyft. Some of those businesses rely so heavily on tourists and business travelers that they probably will close and lay off most or all of their workers, as all 19 restaurants run by Danny Meyers company, Union Square Hospitality Group, did on Friday.
The owners of Chelsea Piers, a large sports and recreation complex on the West Side of Manhattan, decided on Thursday morning to close the location, as well as two smaller centers, in Brooklyn and Stamford, Conn., for the rest of March, said David Tewksbury, one of the owners.
He said that their 1,500 employees were furloughed and given two weeks pay but that he expected them to apply for unemployment benefits.
Mr. Tewksbury said he was unaware if any of those employees or any of the more than 25,000 members of the three locations had tested positive for the coronavirus.
But the decision to close, he added, was based on a concern for the health and safety of the workers and of members, and a social responsibility to be a leader as opposed to a follower.
Much like it was before the coronavirus swept across the country, the citys economy was relatively healthy before the Sept. 11 attacks. But, Mr. Parrott said, after 9/11, people woke up and realized that we were in a recession.
In the wake of that shock, the New York Stock Exchange and other financial markets shut down for a few days and air travel was disrupted for weeks.
But the city began to recover quickly, buoyed by support from Washington, which provided billions of dollars in disaster relief. Theaters reopened, ballgames resumed and elected officials urged New Yorkers to go out, spend money and get back to work.
The 2008 financial crisis was centered on Wall Street, where some major investment banks failed and others survived only through a massive federal bailout.
Now, with no certainty about when life might return to normal, the full effect on the citys economy is impossible to project, Ms. Lowenstein, director of the citys Independent Budget Office, said. But Mr. Parrott said the city would almost surely fall into a recession that would end its longest period of expansion and job growth on record more than 10 years.
This week, the state labor department said that New York Citys unemployment rate fell to an all-time low of 3.5 percent in January, compared with highs of about 8.5 percent in the aftermath of Sept. 11, and 10 percent during the financial crisis.
The ranks of the citys unemployed peaked between 340,000 and 400,000 in those downturns, about two and a half times the current official count.
The prospects for the citys economy has changed so abruptly as so many venues have shut down that its tourism agency, NYC & Company, has shelved its forecast for the year, said Fred Dixon, its chief executive.
As recently as two weeks ago, the city projected a slight increase in visitors in 2020. But that was before travel from most of Europe was banned. For now, Mr. Dixon said, the flow of international travelers has virtually dried up and it is not clear when it may resume.
Without tourists or business travelers, hotels in New York are struggling to continue operating and grappling with how many workers they can retain, said Fred Grapstein, chairman of the Hotel Association of New York City.
What youre seeing, unfortunately, is the layoff of all personnel both union and management, Mr. Grapstein said.
Hotel owners, he added, were negotiating with the Hotel Trades Council, the powerful union that represents 40,000 workers, including room cleaners, desk clerks, waiters and bartenders. The layoffs that were talking about are truly temporary, and we hope that business will pick up again soon, Mr. Grapstein said.
Peter Ward, the unions president, said, The union is working diligently with management to mitigate the consequences of this unprecedented crisis on our members and their families.
Mr. Grapstein said that there has been a lot of discussion about hotels making sure they are financially viable. Many of them routinely lose money in the slower months of January and February but start turning profits as tourism picks up in the spring, he said.
February was kind of bandaged together but things have fallen apart, Mr. Grapstein continued. Some hotels saw their occupancy rates fall from 70 percent to 30 percent, he said, and even lower as the news about the spread of the coronavirus became bleaker and spurred a cascade cancellations.
The sudden closing last week of Broadway theaters a keystone of New Yorks tourism industry as well as museums and other cultural institutions, dealt a blow to restaurants, too.
Before the order to close restaurants, some, like Rosa Mexicano, which has restaurants on the East Side of Manhattan and on the West Side near Lincoln Center, had been trying to stay open as long as they could though with half as many seats.
Rosa Mexicano removed tables and chairs from its dining rooms to comply with Gov. Andrew M. Cuomos order that smaller public spaces reduce their capacity by 50 percent, said Chris Westcott, the chief executive of the company that operates them.
Even without the new rule, diners had already been staying away.
Quite frankly, there wasnt enough business to fill a lot of those tables, Mr. Westcott said.
He said that on Thursday night, business was down about 60 percent at the Lincoln Center location and about 40 percent on the East Side, a more residential neighborhood.
Still, the company has not yet laid off any workers, opting instead to cut their hours and to try to continue providing customers with an atmosphere honed over 35 years: the same menu, guacamole prepared tableside.
Everybody still has a job, Mr. Westcott said. I think they all want to work more, but were not in a position to keep people whole.
Mr. Westcott, who worked for a different company in 2001, said the current situation made it more difficult to plan than in the days after Sept. 11. With 9/11, we hit bottom almost immediately, he said. Now, were still waiting to hit bottom.
The citys Chinatowns, in Manhattan, Brooklyn and Queens, have been reeling for weeks with many customers staying away after the coronavirus started to break out in China.
Jing Fong, a large and popular dim sum restaurant in Manhattan closed temporarily its owners said and laid off its entire staff of 180 employees.
Ming Lam, whose family owns Jing Fong, said business had dropped by 80 percent over the past six weeks.
Qing Chen, 59, a waiter at the restaurant, said he had applied for unemployment but was worried about when he could start collecting benefits and, more important, when he could go back to work. We live in a very confusing and worrying time, he said.
On March 11, the World Health Organization officially declared the Covid-19 coronavirus a global pandemic. The coronavirus outbreak originated in Wuhan, China, but it has now spread to most of the world and is surging in places like Italy, Iran, and South Korea. Global confirmed cases continue to rise, including in the US. In response, workers have been sent home, conferences have been canceled, store shelves have been emptied, a democratic country has been put under nationwide quarantine, and the global economy is under serious threat. It is safe to say this is one of the most serious public health crises in decades, if not a century.
Its overwhelming including for those of us covering it. But if youre just getting up to speed, or you want to dig deeper, heres a (not-comprehensive, but still expansive!) list of some of the articles, papers, podcasts, and interviews weve found most useful, from both Vox and elsewhere.
9 questions about the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak, answered, Vox
What is the coronavirus? What can I do to prevent getting it? What should I do if I think I have it? When will the outbreak end? This piece answers all of these questions and more, so if youre short on time, start here.
9 charts that explain the coronavirus pandemic, Vox
For visual learners. This chart is particularly telling, and scary. As youll see in pieces throughout this guide, Americas failure to test aggressively enough and early enough has set the stage for a much more dangerous epidemic than was necessary:
Naming the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) and the virus that causes it, WHO
Youve probably heard a lot of different names for this new virus thrown around: coronavirus, Covid-19, maybe even SARS-CoV-2. This short post explains the subtle but important differences between these designations.
How Deadly Is Coronavirus? What We Know and What We Dont, New York Times
This piece does a great job of breaking down how case fatality rate (CFR) is calculated, why the number is often inflated (and sometimes deflated) at the outbreak of a new disease, and where epidemiologists generally agree the actual CFR for Covid-19 stands (closer to 1 percent).
Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) overview, Our World in Data
Visualizes the latest research and data on coronavirus total cases, growth rate, severity, symptoms, fatality risk, and more. OWDs custom charts and graphs make the huge swaths of data easily accessible.
Visual: Johns Hopkins Covid-19 interactive map
This interactive map from Johns Hopkins gives up-to-date counts of total confirmed Covid-19 coronavirus cases worldwide, country-by-country breakdowns, and death and recovery rates.
How does the new coronavirus spread? These new studies offer clues. Vox
This piece looks at recent research on how the coronavirus spreads from person to person. Recent studies show that the virus transmits primarily via droplets from coughing or sneezing and can spread even when people dont have any symptoms or are just beginning to feel sick.
Report: The WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019, World Health Organization
This report is important for a variety of reasons. One is that it established the widely referenced baseline for Covid-19 symptoms. Based on 55,924 confirmed cases in China, the WHO established the two most common symptoms of those infected as a fever (88 percent) and a dry cough (67.7 percent). Less frequent symptoms include sputum, or thick mucus from coughs (33.4 percent), shortness of breath (18.6 percent), sore throat (13.9 percent), and headache (13.6 percent).
Study: On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2, National Science Review
This study performed population genetic analyses of SARS-CoV-2 genomes, finding two distinct strains of the virus. The first a more aggressive and severe strain called the L type was prevalent in the initial outbreak in China but has since decreased in frequency. The second, a more mild strain called the S type, was less prevalent in the early outbreak but has increased in relative frequency since. The existence of these two separate strains could potentially explain potential discrepancies in reported symptoms and case fatality rates between China and other countries.
Study: Children at similar risk of infection and transmission as general population, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Preliminary data seemed to indicate that children were being infected by coronavirus at far lower rates than adults. However, this study in China of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts concludes that children are at similar risk of infection as the general population, though less likely to have severe symptoms. Put another way, children may be experiencing less severe symptoms of the coronavirus, but they are still likely to be carriers and thus may act as asymptomatic transmitters.
Preparing for Coronavirus to Strike the US, Scientific American
We should prepare, not because we may feel personally at risk, writes Zeynep Tufekci, but so that we can help lessen the risk for everyone. We should prepare not because we are facing a doomsday scenario out of our control, but because we can alter every aspect of this risk we face as a society.
This piece makes the case that the effort to flatten the curve through behavior changes such as social distancing is a moral and civic duty as well as a personal decision.
CDC guidelines on what to do if youre sick, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
If you have a confirmed case of the Covid-19 coronavirus disease but dont need immediate medical attention, health professionals suggest self-isolation. According to the CDC, this self-isolation should include staying at home (except to get medical care), separating yourself from other people (and pets) in your home, cleaning all high-touch surfaces, and washing ones hands often. This guide also includes a list of precautions for household members/partners/caregivers of infected individuals.
Six things you can do now to get ready for an outbreak, Vox
This outlines the six key steps that all of us should take to not only prevent ourselves from getting sick but prepare our lives for what is to come (and in many ways is already happening). It includes information on how to best wash your hands, whether or not to buy a face mask, and the importance of psychological preparation in the face of a pandemic.
Coronavirus: Why you must act now, Medium
This piece does a nice job outlining the critical role of time in the coronavirus response: Were living in an exponential curve right now, and the difference of a few days can be the dividing line between a successful policy and an uncontrolled outbreak.
Study: Effectiveness of workplace social distancing measures in reducing influenza transmission: a systematic review, NCBI
This 2018 meta-analysis looked at 15 studies of how the practice of workplace social distancing (e.g., increased use of telecommuting and remote-meeting options, staggered work hours, and spacing workers farther apart) impacted the spread of the H1N1 flu in 2009. The authors found that workplace social distancing measures alone produced a median reduction of 23% in the cumulative influenza attack rate in the general population (in addition to delaying and reducing the peak influenza attack rate). This outbreak occurred under different circumstances than the Covid-19 outbreak, but the general lesson is clear: Social distancing works.
How canceled events and self-quarantines save lives, in one chart, Vox
The primary factor that will determine the severity of the coronaviruss impact is the speed at which the outbreak occurs. The phrase flatten the curve has become a popular way to describe the importance of how we as a society can change our collective behavior to slow the rate of coronavirus cases and prevent our health care system from being overwhelmed. This piece explains the term itself, the chart behind it, and why its so important prevent an overwhelming burden on our health care system.
Study: Therapeutic and triage strategies for 2019 novel coronavirus disease in fever clinics, The Lancet
This study outlines the best practice strategies for diagnosing and treating Covid-19 from the point of view of hospitals and clinics, but can also be helpful for individuals experiencing symptoms. The two highest-concern symptoms are dyspnea (the feeling of shortness of breath) and hypoxia (having a low level of oxygen in your blood). The study notes that patients presenting with these symptoms should be immediately sent into isolation (and receive requisite medical care if needed); whereas for those exhibiting other symptoms, additional testing is needed to determine whether the patient has contracted Covid-19.
How does the coronavirus outbreak end?, Vox
Following the initial outbreak of coronavirus in China, the experts agreed the way to end the outbreak was simple: containment. Now, with cases continuing to spread throughout the world, scientists think the containment scenario is unlikely. This piece gives an overview of various scenarios for how the outbreak could end, ranging from nightmare to lucky. One important takeaway is that the severity of Covid-19s impact on our societies is a direct function of how we collectively choose to respond to it.
The most important lessons from Chinas Covid-19 response, Vox
This interview with Bruce Aylward, WHOs assistant director general who led the organizations mission to China, explores the big takeaways from the missions report. Alyward and Voxs Julia Belluz discuss the playbook China used to curb Covid-19 spread, why response speed to an outbreak is so crucial, whether Chinas coronavirus data can be trusted and more.
What America can learn from Taiwans coronavirus response, Vox
Taiwan is an island of 23 million just 81 miles from mainland China and had 2.7 million visitors from China last year. Yet, as of March 10, the country had just 45 Covid-19 cases, and only one death, making Taiwans one of the most effective containment strategies in the world so far. This interview with Stanford health policy researcher Jason Wang explores what Taiwan did right, and how other countries, including the US, could put those lessons to use.
Theyve Contained the Coronavirus. Heres How., New York Times
Taiwan isnt the only place to stave off a massive Covid-19 outbreak despite close ties to China. As of March 12, Hong Kong had only 131 confirmed cases of coronavirus, including four deaths. Singapore is even more impressive. It has managed to limit its coronavirus outbreak to 187 cases confirmed and no deaths all without closing public schools. How did they do it? What lessons can we learn from their efforts? Two epidemiologists from the University of Hong Kong explain.
How Iran Completely and Utterly Botched Its Response to the Coronavirus, New York Times
If Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore are models for how to contain coronavirus, Iran is a warning of what could happen if the outbreak is handled poorly. Iran has only officially reported around 11,000 cases of the virus as of March 13, but many suspect the actual number to be much higher. On Friday, these suspicions were confirmed when new satellite photos were released purporting to show three large burial trenches. This piece, by two Iranian doctors now living in the US, documents how government cover-ups and malfeasance left the country woefully unprepared for what was to come. The most important lesson of the coronavirus crisis in Iran, the authors write, is that health policy must never be politicized.
Everything you need to know about coronavirus vaccines, Wired
The most obvious way to end the coronavirus outbreak would be to develop a vaccine for it. But what is required to actually make a vaccine? When could a Covid-19 vaccine reasonably be ready by? And can governments do anything to speed up this process? This piece has the answers.
Americas shamefully slow coronavirus testing threatens all of us, Vox
As of March 11, only around 7,000 Covid-19 tests had been performed in the US a number well short of other developed countries, many of whom have far smaller populations. This piece explores the important story behind the testing delays, what those delays could mean for public response to the outbreak, and why it is so important that testing gets on track.
How much worse the coronavirus could get, in charts, New York Times
The answers depend on the actions we take and, crucially, on when we take them, write Nicholas Kristof and Stuart Thompson. This interactive model will help you get a sense of how much the outcomes could vary depending on how fast we get our act together. Play with it, and you see the benefits of acting aggressively and early, Kristof tweeted.
Trump Has Sabotaged Americas Coronavirus Response, Foreign Policy
This piece, written in late January, documents how, under Donald Trumps leadership, the US government has intentionally rendered itself incapable of responding effectively to a pandemic. In 2018, the Trump administration fired the governments entire pandemic response chain of command and slashed the CDCs budget and staff. Thus, this piece argues, the US governments blundered response to the coronavirus outbreak isnt an accident it is the culmination of key decisions by the Trump administration.
I ran the White House pandemic office. Trump closed it. Washington Post
After the 2014 Ebola crisis, the Obama administration established the National Security Council Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense, under the leadership of Beth Cameron. I was mystified when the White House dissolved the office, leaving the country less prepared for pandemics like covid-19, she writes.
Trumps mismanagement helped fuel coronavirus crisis, Politico
For six weeks behind the scenes, and now increasingly in public, Trump has undermined his administrations own efforts to fight the coronavirus outbreak, reports Dan Diamond, resisting attempts to plan for worst-case scenarios, overturning a public-health plan upon request from political allies and repeating only the warnings that he chose to hear.
A chilling lesson in what happens when a president who refuses to hear bad news is faced with a crisis full of it.
Report: 2017 Pandemic Influenza Plan, US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)
This 2017 report from HHS outlines the US governments planning strategy for a potential flu pandemic in the United States. While the coronavirus is certainly a unique challenge, the report is worth reading just to get a sense of how the US government thinks about the threat of pandemics and responses to them. In particular, some of the planning assumptions themselves are worth grappling with. According to the chart on page 44, in a moderate flu pandemic scenario, HHS expected around 64 million Americans to contract the illness and 32 million to require outpatient medical care.
Coronaviruss threat to the global economy and what to do about it, Vox
This piece overviews the potential macroeconomic impact of the coronavirus outbreak. The key finding: Coronavirus will likely lead to an economic recession, but unlike in 2008 many governments will not have the primary tool for stimulating their economies (cutting interest rates) at their disposal. Instead, governments will have to stimulate demand via fiscal policy a process that could run into some serious legislative roadblocks.
This feels much worse than 2008: Obamas chief economist on coronaviruss economic threat, Vox
At this point, this feels much worse than 2008, says Jason Furman, who served as Obamas chief economist and helped coordinate the response to the financial crisis. Lehman Brothers was quite bad, but it was the culmination of a sequence of things that had happened over 14 months. This hit all at once.
Report: COVID-19: Implications for business, McKinsey & Co.
In this report, McKinsey outlines three potential scenarios for the coronavirus outbreak worldwide quick recovery, global slowdown, and global pandemic and recession and how each would impact the global economy. Quick recovery is extremely unlikely, as it would have required a global public health response equivalent to Chinas. But reading through the difference between the latter two scenarios is enlightening.
From McKinseys perspective, the difference between a global slowdown (global GDP growth for 2020 would be cut in half, to between 1 and 1.5 percent) and global pandemic and recession (global growth in 2020 falling to between 1.5 percent and 0.5 percent) hinges largely on a single question: Is the virus is seasonal, or will it persist consistently through the summer?
Study: The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios, Australian National University
Building on modeling of the economic impact of 20022003 SARS and 2006 flu pandemics, this paper models seven possible global economic scenarios in the wake of coronavirus. In the papers low severity scenario, the estimated loss to global GDP is $2.4 trillion. But the costs rise sharply as the level of severity increases, with the highest potential cost to global GDP rising to $9 trillion.
Coronavirus will also cause a loneliness epidemic, Vox
The thrust of this piece can be summed up in one key passage: Make no mistake: The rapid implementation of social distancing is necessary to flatten the coronavirus curve and prevent the current pandemic from worsening. But just as the coronavirus fallout threatens to cause an economic recession, its also going to cause what we might call a social recession: a collapse in social contact that is particularly hard on the populations most vulnerable to isolation and loneliness older adults and people with disabilities or preexisting health conditions.
Amid COVID-19 outbreak, the workers who need paid sick days the most have the least, Economic Policy Institute
This piece documents a disquieting paradox at the heart of the coronavirus outbreak: the workers who are the most public-facing namely those who work in leisure and hospitality have the least access to paid sick days. This means that the workers who are most likely to get sick (and thus spread the coronavirus) are also the least likely to be able to take time off work to self-quarantine or seek medical testing.
The coronavirus will cause a child care crisis in America, Vox
This week, at least a dozen states and a number of large urban school districts decided to shut down all K-12 schools in response to the growing coronavirus outbreak, As this piece reports, the effects of these closures could be massive: Kids across America will go without lunch, families will be left scrambling for child care, and, in many situations, parents will have to choose between keeping their jobs and leaving their kids alone.
Coronavirus and 2020 Elections: What Happens to Voting in an Outbreak, New York Times
The coronavirus outbreak isnt happening in any year its happening in a presidential election year. According to this piece, the impact of coronavirus on voting could be stark: A presidential election unfolds over months in crowded campaign rallies and nominating conventions, and culminates in November when more than 130 million voters and nearly a million poll workers come together in firehouses and gymnasiums, swiping fingers on touch screens or opening up those aforementioned licked envelopes. The effects of a socially transmitted respiratory virus, if it were to spread unabated through campaign season, would be almost endless.
Coronavirus Outbreak Has Americas Homeless at Risk of Disaster. New York Times
As this piece reports, the 550,000 homeless individuals across the US have a double vulnerability to the coronavirus. Not only are they more susceptible to contracting the disease due to cramped shelters, inability to self-quarantine and unsanitary street conditions, but once infected the chronically homeless are more likely to get much sicker or die because of underlying medical conditions and a lack of reliable health care. As a result, the experts expect the coronavirus outbreak to result in a disaster for Americas homeless population.
Covid-19, explained by Carl (who has it), Today, Explained
Coronavirus: Fears and Facts, Science Vs.
Does stopping coronavirus require more surveillance?, Reset
Behind the Covid-19 curve, The Weeds
Mr. Chen Goes to Wuhan, This American Life
WHO daily situation reports
Vox up-to-date coverage
The Vox guide to Covid-19 coronavirus
Ive spent two decades studying the transformations that take place under the cover of disaster. Ive learned that one thing we can count on is this: During moments of cataclysmic change, the previously unthinkable suddenly becomes reality. In recent decades, that change has mainly been for the worst but this has not always been the case. And it need not continue to be in the future.
This video is about the ways the still-unfolding Covid-19 crisis is already remaking our sense of the possible. The Trump administration and other governments around the world are busily exploiting the crisis to push for no-strings-attached corporate bailouts and regulatory rollbacks. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is moving to repeal financial regulations that were introduced after the last major financial meltdown, as part of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act. China, for its part, is indicating that it will relax environmental standards to stimulate its economy, which would wipe out the one major benefit the crisis has produced so far: a marked drop in that countrys lethal air pollution.
But this is not the whole story. In the United States, we have also seen organizing at the city and state levels win important victories to suspend evictions during the pandemic. Ireland has announced six weeks of emergency unemployment payments for all workers who suddenly find themselves out of work, including self-employed workers. And despite U.S. presidential candidate Joe Bidens claims during the recent debate that the pandemic has nothing to do with Medicare for All, many Americans are suddenly realizing that the absence of a functioning safety net exacerbates vulnerabilities to the virus on many fronts.
This crisis like earlier ones could well be the catalyst to shower aid on the wealthiest interests in society, including those most responsible for our current vulnerabilities, while offering next to nothing to the most workers, wiping out small family savings and shuttering small businesses. But as this video shows, many are already pushing back and that story hasnt been written yet.
The new coronavirus is a serious threat to the elderly, as federal officials have been at pains to note recently. But they have stepped gingerly around advice for another group of Americans also at special risk from the infection: those with chronic health conditions.
It is not a small group. An estimated 60 percent of all Americans have at least one chronic health condition, and 40 percent have more than one. (The figures include the elderly.) Heart disease, cancer, diabetes all of these can exacerbate a coronavirus infection, studies show, increasing the odds of severe disease and death.
Federal health officials have urged those in their 80s and older to sharply curtail their activities to reduce exposing themselves to infection. But beyond general advice to wash hands frequently and to avoid crowds, officials have said little about those who are younger and cope with chronic illnesses.
Now some experts are encouraging this broader swath of the population to take immediate action to protect themselves.
All you folks older than 60 and those who have underlying illnesses, you ought to do personal mitigation starting now, said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University.
The risk of dying if one contracts the infection begins to rise at a younger age than federal officials have acknowledged, suggesting the coronavirus may cut deeply into the fabric of a society in which many older adults continue to lead active, engaged lives.
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In the largest study to date, conducted in China, the greatest risk of death from Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, was found among patients in their 80s or older, 15 percent of whom died. But while just 1.3 percent of patients in their 50s died, the death rate rose with each additional decade of life, increasing to 3.6 percent for patients in their 60s and to 8 percent for patients in their 70s.
The virus has killed younger people: Dr. Li Wenliang, the physician who died after raising the alarm about the mysterious new illness, was only 34. But children have been affected in very small numbers, and younger adults have displayed greater resilience.
The chronic health conditions that cause complications following infection with the coronavirus are certainly more common in older people. But they are also commonly found in Americans under 65.
High blood pressure affects nearly one in three adults in the United States, including one-third of adults in their 40s and 50s. More than one in 10 adults have Type 1 or Type 2 diabetes, including 17 percent of adults aged 45 to 64. At least 16 million Americans struggle with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
A study of 1,590 patients, also in China, found that people infected with the coronavirus who were already coping with a chronic condition were 1.8 times more likely to have a poor outcome, such as being put on a ventilator or dying, than those with no underlying conditions.
But those with two chronic conditions were at 2.6 greater risk, compared to individuals with none. Nearly 20 percent of the patients who had at least one chronic condition had a poor outcome, compared with 4.5 percent of those without any chronic ailments, the study found.
Dr. Schaffner and other public health experts outlined a series of steps individuals can take to minimize their risk of exposure.
Its imperative that the population understand that now is the time to get serious about avoiding group events, and to become a bit of a hermit, Dr. Schaffner said.
If Im older, and have underlying illnesses, then Im the kind of person that this virus makes more seriously and even gravely ill.
Among the recommendations were: refraining from recreational group activities and face-to-face work meetings. Canceling travel. Staying home from religious services and other social and celebratory events even family get-togethers that bring together large groups.
Go shopping at off hours, when stores are less frequented, Dr. Schaffner suggested. Watch the game on TV, not live. And no hugging.
Im not trying to put everyone in a plastic enclosure, but to reduce the risk, Dr. Schaffner said. And every little thing you can do to reduce the risk helps.
Smoking An estimated 34 million Americans smoke, and 16 million live with a disease caused by smoking.
Covid-19 is a respiratory ailment. Longtime smokers with damaged lungs will be more vulnerable and should quit now, said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard University.
Diabetes If you have Type 1 or Type 2 diabetes, exercising very strict control over blood sugar levels can help boost immunity, said Dr. Sandra Weber, president of the American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists.
We know that if you do not have good glucose control, youre at high risk for infection, including viruses and presumably this one as well, Dr. Weber said.
Even improving glucose control over the next one to two weeks would put you in a situation where you would have better immune function, she said.
People with Type 1 diabetes are more likely to have severe disease if they become infected. When they experience viral symptoms like nausea, diarrhea and vomiting, they are more likely to develop a serious complication called life-threatening ketoacidosis.
Lung disease Dr. Albert Rizzo, chief medical officer of the American Lung Association, urged patients with chronic lung conditions like asthma or C.O.P.D. to talk to their doctors by phone and to think twice about going anywhere that might expose them to the virus.
Heart disease A respiratory illness like Covid-19 is risky for anyone who has heart disease, because it increases metabolic demand, forcing the heart to work harder to pump blood, said Orly Vardeny, who studies influenza and heart disease at the University of Minnesota.
That extra stress leads to worsening of their underlying heart disease, she said. Its not going to be limited to fever, cough, pneumonia its also going to affect whatever their underlying condition is and make it worse.
Immunocompromised People with compromised immune systems are especially vulnerable to respiratory infections. That group includes those who have autoimmune disorders such as lupus and arthritis, those who have had organ transplants, patients undergoing chemotherapy and other cancer treatments, and anyone who is taking steroids as treatment.
People with H.I.V. are not on the list as yet, however. With powerful antiretroviral drugs, many now have immune systems strong enough to stave off infections, said Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco.
There is some very preliminary evidence that certain H.I.V. drugs in wide use may help slow the coronavirus.
Cancer Chemotherapy or radiation, two common treatments, weaken the immune system, noted Dr. Cardinale Smith, director of quality for cancer survivors at the Mount Sinai Health System.
Cancer patients who have been in treatment should avoid contact with anyone who is sick and stay indoors as much as possible. Its really just erring on the side of caution while we ride this out, Dr. Smith said.
Seniors Even healthy older people who are active and vigorous need to take precautions, said Dr. Richard Baron, an internist and geriatrician who heads the American Board of Internal Medicine.
Our organs have a lot of reserves, but its in the nature of getting older that you progressively lose that reserve, Dr. Baron said. You can get into trouble really quickly.
Those who dont get sick often should not feel overly confident. The coronavirus is a new pathogen that wont be recognized by the immune system, said Dr. Charlotte Yeh, chief medical officer at AARP. The body will not have built up its defenses, she added: Your prior exposures wont necessarily help you.
Now that the virus is embedded in communities, individuals must act to protect themselves, said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
At least 1,400 Americans are known to have the coronavirus, though the real prevalence in the United States is unknown, as testing has been scarce. At least 38 have died of the infection.
People should understand they need to take control of their own life, Dr. Osterholm said.
You cant assume anymore that people are not capable of infecting you. In many cases they wont even know theyre infected.
Those who are older or who have chronic health conditions have to kind of assume the rest of the world is a coronavirus soup, he added. If I dont want to end up swimming in that bowl, I need to find another place on the plate.
Reporting was contributed by Apoorva Mandavilli.
Spain and France announced drastic, countrywide restrictions on Saturday to contain the spread of the coronavirus.
Spain ordered all citizens to confine themselves to their homes and to leave only to buy food, go to work, seek medical care or assist the elderly and others in need.
Officials in Spain reported 1,500 new cases, the largest daily increase in the country so far, pushing its total to 5,753. The government ordered all schools, restaurants and bars to close, extending measures that various regional authorities, including in Madrid and in Catalonia, had taken on Friday.
Also on Saturday, Spanish authorities said the wife of Prime Minister Pedro Snchez, Begoa Gmez, had tested positive for the virus.
France announced the closing of all non-indispensable businesses as of midnight, including restaurants, bars, and movie theaters, after a sharp uptick in the assault from the coronavirus. French cases doubled over the last 72 hours to about 4,500. There have been 91 deaths, and 300 coronavirus patients are in critical condition half of them under 60 years of age.
The measures in both countries follow similar moves in Italy, the hardest hit country in Europe. Italy has been locked down since early in the week, with only groceries, pharmacies and banks allowed to operate. On Saturday, the country reported 175 new deaths, with a total of 1,441, and 2,795 new cases, with the total crossing 21,000.
Trump Is Tested for Coronavirus, and Experts Ask: What Took So Long? The New York Times
For most of last week, as Mayor Bill de Blasio continued to urge New Yorkers to mostly go about their daily lives sending their children to school, frequenting the citys businesses some of his top aides were furiously trying to change the mayors approach to the coronavirus outbreak.
There had been arguments and shouting matches between the mayor and some of his advisers; some top health officials had even threatened to resign if he refused to accept the need to close schools and businesses, according to several people familiar with the internal discussions.
Teachers were threatening not to show up to school on Monday. A growing number of public health experts and politicians were calling for much of the city to be shut down to curb the spread of the virus.
On Sunday, the mayor was shown a graph depicting the sharp upward trajectory of the coronavirus epidemic curve, and another showing the capacity of the citys health systems to handle the influx.
The information painted a disastrous picture of the days and weeks to come unless the mayor took immediate action.
We all realized from the public health outcomes and political reality this needed to happen, said a person familiar with the mayors deliberations who spoke under the condition of anonymity. He just had to process it himself.
A few hours later, Mr. de Blasio announced a plan for schools to close starting Monday until at least April 20. Later that evening, the mayor announced a plan to close bars and restaurants.
Clearly the city moved in a completely different direction yesterday, not just on the school system, but everything else, said Michael Mulgrew, the president of the citys teachers union, who was among those trying to persuade the mayor to shift his position. All the policy. It was sudden.
As fears over the coronavirus outbreak rose with each new reported case in New York City, Mr. de Blasio has tried to do his best to project a sense of calm. He stressed that the vast majority of people who contracted the virus in New York would recover after a mild illness.
He also continued to travel from Gracie Mansion in Manhattan to work out at a Y.M.C.A. in Park Slope, Brooklyn, a longstanding routine that has garnered intense criticism.
Even on Monday, hours before all gyms in New York had to close, the mayor was seen getting one last workout in at the Y attracting a new furious round of criticism.
No current or former staff member should be asked to defend this, Rebecca Katz, a former adviser to Mr. de Blasio, wrote on Twitter. Jonathan Rosen, once one of Mr. de Blasios closest advisers, agreed with Ms. Katz on Twitter, calling the mayors gym visit pathetic, self-involved, inexcusable.
In a subsequent interview, Ms. Katz said, Staffers are working 24 hours to put together plans for the city. Thats not the right message to send right now.
The mayors press secretary, Freddi Goldstein, said that the Y.M.C.A. was a huge part of his and his familys life, adding, Its clear thats about to change, and before that, the mayor wanted to visit a place that keeps him grounded one last time.
Mr. Cuomos order does not take effect until 8 p.m. on Monday, at which point all gyms, casinos and movie theaters in the state will be closed, and bars and restaurants will be limited to takeout and delivery.
In many ways, the mayors visit to the gym on Monday captured his reluctance to completely embrace the need for radical changes. Even after declaring a state of emergency on Thursday, Mr. de Blasio continued to suggest that more drastic actions were not yet needed.
The mayors stance derived from a two-part strategy to deal with the coronavirus: containment and mitigation.
City health officials said that the goal is not to necessarily reduce the overall number of cases, but to slow its spread and stretch it out over time. Doing so would lower the number of cases at any given time, which health officials say is of critical importance.
What youre doing is blunting the height so you never have the day when there is 5,000 people, 10,000, or 20,000 people looking for health care and theyre so overcapacity that grandma cant get chemotherapy, Dr. Demetre C. Daskalakis, the deputy commissioner for disease control at New York Citys Department of Health, explained in a speech last week to doctors and medical students at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. Capacity of health care that is what this is all about.
Mitigation calls for social-distancing measures, such as reducing crowds by banning large-scale events like sporting events and concerts, and closing schools.
Mr. de Blasio had been resistant to embracing shutdowns, saying he was worried about how they would affect the citys sense of normalcy and what impact they would have on the most vulnerable New Yorkers.
People close to the mayor said that as the virus spread, he knew that the city would need to shut more things down; the debate was over the timing.
We need people to have their livelihoods, Mr. de Blasio said on Friday, the day after he signed the declaration of emergency. We need folks to show up at work.
In his first six years in office, the mayor has received praise for leading the city through multiple global health epidemics such as a Legionnaires disease outbreak in 2015 that killed at least a dozen people.
When an Ebola scare ripped through the city during his first year as mayor, Mr. de Blasio hugged an Ebola patient and ate at a restaurant where that man had dined, part of a strategy to reduce panic and to urge New Yorkers to mostly go about their lives.
The mayor has said that he was trying to strike a balance between public health and affecting peoples livelihoods.
But as more New Yorkers tested positive for the coronavirus, it was clear that more decisive action was needed.
The turning point came over the weekend, as numerous advisers met with Mr. de Blasio and showed him the charts of the disease trajectory and the citys ability to handle the cases.
Mr. de Blasio acknowledged on Sunday that seeing the latest models and talking thorough the ramifications helped change his mind.
Another person close to the deliberations described the mayor as an intelligent over-processor. He doesnt trust experts in the field until he has processed it himself, the person said.
Michael Gold contributed reporting.
