Weve all seen the scenes of anxious customers tearing through grocery aisles, loading toilet paper, hand sanitizer, and canned goods into piled-high shopping carts. The mania comes after thousands of work-from-home orders, vast state-wide lockdowns, a declared National Emergency, and an unnerving sense of ambiguity about how much the coronavirus will alter American life. The survivalist instinct is to stockpile goods and hope that a decade-worth of toilet paper might spare you from whats to come. Unfortunately, people like Chris, a 67-year-old woman who works at a grocery store in Seattle, is caught in the crossfire of the panic. Chris is one of 70+ people who have shared their experience working in the service industry with us.
Chris is employed by QFC, a Pacific Northwest supermarket chain that she describes as having three floors and a dense supply of goods. Despite that, she tells me that the store can barely keep up with demand. Bottles of hand sanitizer last 20 minutes, the chicken gets cleared out immediately, dry goods disappear within hours. All of this has left Chris feeling vulnerable. Seattle is one of the epicenters of the domestic Covid-19 outbreak. She understands that at her age, she falls into the bracket of people most vulnerable to a serious illness if she contracts the virus. States like New York and Ohio have closed down museums, movie theaters, bars, and restaurants in the wake of the pandemic, but core community infrastructure like grocery stores and pharmacies remain open. Chriss work schedule isnt going anywhere. Shes expected to be on the linoleum floor, surrounded by a swarm of nervy patrons, each of whom could potentially pass her the disease.
Right now, Chris is self-isolating at home. She informed her employer last Wednesday that she will be taking a temporary leave of absence after deciding that the chances of contracting coronavirus at her job were too great to risk it. Right now, there is no social safety net for people like Chris. She is no longer generating an income, and rent is bearing down in two weeks (though a moratorium on evictions in Washington state has been signed). The Trump administration fast-tracked a sick-leave bill to keep infectious workers at home, but thus far, the same guarantee does not exist for elderly or immunocompromised people who are staffing the few private institutions that will, in all likelihood, remain open for the remainder of the pandemic. Chris says she feels caught between two bad options: She needs to make money in order to live, but her current means of employment might kill her. We spoke about that, as well as about how the panic buying has affected her grocery stores bottom line, and the shreds of optimism she finds in the attitude of the Seattle community.
So when did the panic buying start to pick up at your store?
It was when Governor Inslee declared a state of emergency [on Feb. 29]. We were just swamped. They were all over the place. They cleared the shelves. And this isnt a small store. Weve got three levels, and its practically a full city block. They cleared out the non-perishables, toilet paper was gone, anything that had to do with antiseptic sprays or wipes was gone. They went to the Clorox, never mind the hand sanitizer. We hadnt ordered in anticipation of this, so we ran out. Ever since that Saturday they have been there every single day, buying everything. We put hand sanitizer on the shelf and its gone in 20 minutes.
Has this been high stress for you?
Back in September I fell and broke my elbow, and my main job is to go up to people who look confused and find out if theyre looking for something and to help them find that. Basically, I was thrown right into the middle of all these people. Ive seen whats been going on. Ive seen all the rice and beans disappear, be it dry goods or canned. They cleared out the chicken. We cant keep chicken in. At this point were over-ordering, and the staff of the store is working really hard. Its been something else. They keep buying water. Why do you need water?
So a number of states have moved to shut down everything except for grocery stores and pharmacies. What does it feel like knowing that for as long as were under quarantine, youll still be going to work and be out and about when everyone else is shut in?
Heres the thing. Ive been taking this in stride. But last Sunday, when I saw that the crowds were not going down, and while I was keeping up on all the medical news and whats going on, it hit me that, you know, Im not in a good situation here. On Wednesday I called in and said I needed to take a leave of absence to the end of the month. So right now Im negotiating to find a way to have an income while preemptively quarantining. Because Im in that vulnerable group.
I have a realistic outlook. I do not expect to get through this horrible pandemic without getting sick at some point. I absolutely expect for that to happen. But I dont want to get sick before were past the peak of infections. If I do get it and I get it seriously, I dont want to be stuck out in the streets because theres no room in the hospital. Im reading Twitter reports from doctors in Italy about how they have to make this gut-wrenching decision about who they treat. Theyre having to let people die. I dont want to be stuck in that, and I dont want to contribute to that.
The problem is I also need to have an income and health insurance, and I dont know how to do that while self-quarantining. Its an awful decision: Go to work and put your life at risk, or lose your job, lose your income, and lose your insurance. I havent committed either way at this point. Im trying to find a way to stay home.
Trump came out a week ago and announced a national sick-leave plan. Are you holding out hope for some sort of legislation that will allow people like you, in that vulnerable group, to stay home while keeping an income?
It seems to me like its an oversight that they didnt specify that some way for the elderly or compromised to stay home. I applaud Inslee for taking the initiative and being the first state to call an emergency and open up all sorts of federal help. He has been able to get some leniency in unemployment. But right now, the requirement is that you have to be sick in order to be able to get that. Its an oversight that they didnt take that further, to offer that to vulnerable people before they get sick. Ive got my fingers crossed. Ive been making as much noise as I can about this. I hope that at some point it will occur to the people in power that they need to open this up more.
When youre at the store, surrounded by all these people, do you feel vulnerable?
Absolutely. Im pretty much concentrated on giving the best service I can to people. If they are looking for a product we dont have, Ill pull out my phone and find where they can get it. I give them new information. I really do try to do my best. But when Im in the break room or before I go into work or after I get off, I have concerns. And thats whats made me stay home with no income coming in, looking at the bills coming at the end of the month. I dont have savings, at this point all my credit is approaching max, and Ive got rent coming up in a week or two. I dont know what Im going to do. Do I worry about that, or do I just go ahead and go to work? At this point I dont think its safe. The virus has spread too much in Seattle. I think what finally started to get to me was two days before I made this decision, Amazon cleared up all their offices after an employee got sick. That building was right near my dentists office where I was getting dental care. Its too close. A reasonable person would worry.
I dont want to be glib about a serious situation, but I am curious: Do you have an idea how profitable all this panic buying has been for the stores bottom line?
I know that its doing good business. Ordinarily, we do in the mid-single-digit thousands, and last week we did, I think, $200,000. Its been really good for them financially, but on the other hand, people are being worked to death. You have all these people coming in, and a lot of them are pissed off that they cant find what they need to get, theyre pissed off that they have to wait in line for so long, but no matter what store you go to you run into those issues. Were ordering huge amounts of stuff to try to keep up with the demand.
Are customers still polite despite all of that?
On any given day, over the last four years, you have a few assholes. They feel privileged and entitled, and no matter what you do they take it as an opportunity to mistreat you in some way. But Im finding that because of the panic, everyones a little bit in shock. So theyre very tolerant. Theres a hashtag called #WeGotThisSeattle. If you look on there, its a very reassuring bunch of tweets. Theres a fine dining restaurant thats changing from being a sit-down restaurant to a takeout burger place. Youve got people offering to do grocery runs for each other. Since nobody is coming to concerts, the symphony is doing these live streams on the internet, so you can sit back and watch that. Its amazing to see how people are stepping up. By and large, everybody is trying to help everybody else out, because were all in this together.
Were looking to hear from people who work in the service industry in the US about their experiences related to the coronavirus. Share your story in the form below, and we might use it in an upcoming video, article, or podcast episode. (You can also access the Google form here.)
A couple wear face masks as they visit Buckingham Palace in London on Saturday. After criticism for responding slowly, the United Kingdom has urged the public to avoid unnecessary contact. Frank Augstein/AP hide caption
A couple wear face masks as they visit Buckingham Palace in London on Saturday. After criticism for responding slowly, the United Kingdom has urged the public to avoid unnecessary contact.
Updated at 3:22 p.m. ET
The United Kingdom's government is urging the public to work from home and avoid pubs, restaurants and theaters to slow the spread of the coronavirus as the death toll hit 67, with 1,950 confirmed cases. But, unlike some other European countries, including Ireland, the U.K. will keep schools open for now.
In a news conference Monday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson told people to avoid unnecessary social contact and travel and to not visit nursing homes. He also suggested that by the weekend, he will call for those older 70 and those with the most serious health conditions to stay at home for 12 weeks.
"It now looks as though we are approaching the fast growth part of the upward curve, and without drastic action, cases could double every five or six days," Johnson said.
It now looks as though we are approaching the fast growth part of the upward curve, and without drastic action, cases could double every five or six days.
Boris Johnson, U.K. prime minister
Johnson said he was not shutting schools, in part because it would require parents, including National Health Service staff, to stay home. On Tuesday, the Foreign Office advised against nonessential international travel.
The government's strategy is to try to avoid a spike in cases that could easily inundate the NHS.
The coronavirus pandemic comes at a vulnerable time for the country's NHS. A decade of crippling funding cuts has left tens of thousands of vacancies and has led to record emergency room wait times. Doctors worry about whether the system can hold up.
"I see, when I do shifts on the front line, the real impacts of this shortfall in resources," says Rosena Allin-Khan, an emergency room doctor in south London as well as a member of Parliament in the main opposition Labour Party. "We don't have enough nurses; we have people waiting far too long for operations."
Allin-Khan says she thinks the country's health care system could be heading for a reckoning.
"I believe this outbreak is really going to expose the gaping chasms, not even just cracks, but the gaping chasms in the NHS," she says.
Patients are also concerned about the system's capacity. Monika Lakomy-Diep, an accountant in London, struggled last week to get a doctor to treat her daughter's allergies.
"The NHS is already stretched," she says, standing outside St. Thomas' Hospital across the River Thames from Big Ben. "Getting a simple GP appointment is a miracle."
The NHS is an institution in this country. The government created it in 1948, following the end of World War II, as part of a series of reforms to give people cradle-to-grave support. Funded by taxpayers, it provides everything from annual physicals to cancer surgery at no cost to users.
For most of its existence, the health system received annual funding increases of about 4% above the inflation rate. But after the global financial crisis, the U.K. government reduced those increases to about 1.5% annually over the past decade, says Siva Anandaciva, a chief analyst at the King's Fund, a health care think tank.
The U.K.'s Conservative prime minister said last week that he hopes to push the peak of COVID-19 cases into the late spring to avoid swamping the system.
"If we delay the peak even by a few weeks, then our NHS will be in a stronger state as the weather improves and fewer people suffer from normal respiratory diseases," Johnson said. "More beds are available, and we'll have more time for medical research."
Ron Daniels, an NHS critical care doctor, says that if the government's strategy works, the NHS will be able to cope. But if it doesn't, Daniels says, the U.K. could come to resemble parts of Italy, where more than 2,100 people have died.
"If we're unable to change public behavior and we see a rapid spread," Daniels says, "then the NHS is very quickly going to find itself overwhelmed, as has happened in Lombardy," a northwestern Italian region that has been devastated by COVID-19.
In Britain's House of Commons last week, Ed Davey, an acting leader of another opposition party, the Liberal Democrats, confronted Johnson over the lack of health care funding.
"Does the prime minister not agree that the three Conservative governments since 2015 should have fixed the roof when the sun was shining?" said Davey.
Johnson responded that his administration has been addressing the problem: "There are 8,700 more nurses this year than last year, and we are recruiting another 50,000 more," Johnson answered.
Last week, the U.K.'s new Treasury chief, Rishi Sunak, vowed in his budget speech to provide the NHS with whatever resources it needs to fight the coronavirus, including a portion of a $6 billion COVID-19 emergency fund.
It's tough for many Britons to watch the NHS struggle because they love it so much. Anandaciva, of The King's Fund, says the service regularly tops public opinion polls on what makes people proud to be British.
"Something that is comprehensive, universal and free at the point of use, as a social construct," Anandaciva says, "I think speaks to something in the British identity about a sense of fairness, our sense of everyone being in it together."
Coronavirus testing data has been spotty and not easily available, especially in the United States. Based on official government sources, heres how testing efforts in the United States compare with those in Italy and South Korea.
Delays in testing in the United States have set back the nations response to the pandemic, even though its first case was discovered around the same time that South Koreas was. But part of the problem in the United States has also been gaps created by the way the state and federal agencies report the data.
An internet community effort, called the COVID Tracking Project, is attempting to provide a fuller picture of testing in the United States. According to the tracker which collects information directly from state health departments, local news reports and live news conferences at least 41,000 people have been tested in the United States, much higher than official C.D.C. figures.
It has been difficult to track reliable testing data in the United States for a number of reasons. Data from the Centers for Disease Control, which lags several days, reports the number of specimens tested, not the number of people multiple specimens can be tested from each person. And some states report only positive results, not negative ones, making it hard to know the total number tested.
The COVID Tracking Projects data, however, lays bare just how behind the United States has been in responding to the pandemic, which by Monday night had sickened more than 178,000 people worldwide, according to official accounts.
Recent data shows that about 125 people per million have been tested in the United States far fewer than most other countries where data is available.
Through intensive testing and monitoring, South Korea has managed to slow the growth of new cases. Health officials there tracked down people with symptoms and even set up drive-through testing, allowing at least 10,000 people to be tested per day. Government websites and mobile apps disclosed how many people had been tested and where.
Italy has also tested aggressively for the virus, which could help explain why its total confirmed cases are higher than every other country in Europe. Health officials in Lombardy Italys hardest-hit region initially carried out swab tests on those who were sick as well as those who came into contact with infected people, even if they had no symptoms.
Until now, testing in the United States has been done manually, with individual labs performing only 40 to 60 tests a day. Testing has ramped up in recent days on Monday, the COVID Tracking Projects count of reported tests rose by 13,000, suggesting a surge in the nations testing.
Also on Monday, federal officials said they were moving ahead with plans to set up more drive-through testing centers around the country and to speed the processing of tests by commercial labs. By the end of the week, officials said that 1.9 million tests should be available.
Since inflation is a composite indicator of many prices, the few items that are going up because of supply bottlenecks and rising demand (including medical supplies and food, because of stockpiling) are not sufficiently significant to push up the overall inflation numbers, which will remain subdued. We could be heading for deflation, but if the government gives working people a tax cut and provides transfers to those losing their gig and other incomes, as it should do, that would sustain demand.
Justin Le, Mountain View, Calif.: How will this affect Generations Y and Z? Millennials are scarred by years of economic downturn, job insecurity and financial instability. Were just now recovering from losing money and opportunity as a result of the Great Recession. My fear is that this coming recession will cause permanent damage to our finances and spending power. And that Generation Z will suffer, as younger millennials did, with high student-loan balances while they enter a hostile and competitive job market.
I.G.: You are right to be concerned about this. The elderly are becoming a larger share of the population and the vote. The median age in the country is rising about two years every decade, because of increasing life expectancy and falling fertility. Given the rising costs of retirement and health care, this causes growing strains on family, state and other budgets. There will be less money to transfer to children, and as life expectancy increases, children will be older and older before they inherit anything from their parents, if indeed they are lucky enough to have parents who have sufficient wealth and savings. Economic crises exacerbate these tendencies, as do pandemics.
Lincoln Shlensky, Victoria, British Columbia: Is this epidemic a product of our times in some unique way, or is it just that the botched response to it is characteristic of the new political landscape you mention in your piece?
I.G.: The pandemic is a product of our times in the speed and intensity of its rapid spread. The super spreaders of the good aspects of globalization, such as major airports, which facilitate business and leisure travel, are also the super spreaders of the bads, like disease. The rapid growth of cities and rising incomes in many places is also relatively recent, so more people live in concentrated centers close to major hubs.
There have been pandemics before, and the Spanish flu of 1918 is estimated to have infected around a third of the worlds population and led to the death of more than 50 million people. This time is different in terms of how quickly and how far the pandemic can spread quickly. This is a feature of the growing complexity and interdependence of the world, but it also reflects the failure of politics to understand how the systems have developed and how to respond. The failure of politicians to understand and act on this, even after the financial crisis of 2008 and the growing evidence of climate change and other risks, is what worries me most, as I discuss in my books The Butterfly Defect, which looks at systemic risk, and Age of Discovery, which compares current challenges with previous ones.
Thomas Marini, Aptos, Calif.: I was mesmerized by a Times animated graphic of airline flights over a map of China. As the effects of the virus on air travel kicked in, the red swarm of flights dwindled into a scattering of individual red airplanes. It occurred to me that the coronavirus pandemic could inadvertently have a large impact on carbon emissions. Does the coronavirus, with its collateral damage to the world economy and corresponding reduction in worldwide carbon emissions, give us a model for the kind of tremendous dislocation and change that will be necessary to save us from climate catastrophe?
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Its Monday. Because of the coronavirus outbreak, officials are urging a reduction in gatherings. As such, we are temporarily suspending our event listings.
Weather: Bright in the morning, then building clouds; high in the mid-40s.
Alternate-side parking: In effect until April 9 (Holy Thursday).
New York Citys public schools will begin shutting down this week, Governor Cuomo announced yesterday afternoon, in an effort to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Hours later, Mayor de Blasio announced that he would soon order all bars and restaurants to close, limiting them to takeout and delivery.
Mr. de Blasio said that the schools would be closed today for all students and staff, but that teachers would be asked to report to work later in the week for training on remote learning. By March 23, the city will move to remote learning, and the school system will be closed except for several dozen buildings that will be used as learning centers to support the children of essential city workers like health care employees.
Schools will be closed until at least April 20, but could stay closed for longer, Mr. de Blasio said.
City school buildings will remain open this week for children to pick up food, and then the city will find alternative sites for students who need food to receive it. Students who do not have computers at home will be lent laptops, and the city will work on helping students who do not have internet access get online.
[Read more on the decision to close the citys schools, and find the latest coverage on nytimes.com.]
Around 10 p.m., Mr. de Blasio issued a statement saying that he was closing restaurants and bars, effective Tuesday at 9 a.m. He said his executive order would limit restaurants, bars and cafes to takeout and delivery. Nightclubs, movie theaters, small theater houses and concert venues must all close.
This is not a decision I make lightly, he said. These places are part of the heart and soul of our city. They are part of what it means to be a New Yorker. But our city is facing an unprecedented threat, and we must respond with a wartime mentality.
[Everything is a black hole: Mounting dread in the age of coronavirus.]
Mr. Cuomo called yesterday for private businesses to voluntarily close and have their employees work from home. And Mr. de Blasio ordered hospitals in the city to cancel all elective surgery, postponed an election for the Queens borough president and closed city senior centers.
The states presidential primary election could be moved from April 28 to June 23, the date of another scheduled statewide vote, officials said yesterday.
State courts will postpone many criminal cases indefinitely and stop performing all but the most essential functions to help stop the spread of the coronavirus, officials said.
In addition, all eviction proceedings and pending eviction orders have been suspended statewide until further notice.
New York State had 732 confirmed coronavirus cases officials said. The largest concentration of cases was in New York City, where 329 people had tested positive. Of the six deaths in the state from the virus, five were in the city.
College in the Coronavirus Era: Wistful Goodbyes and a Sense of Loss
Stirring Sermons About Coronavirus, in Empty Cathedrals
Two Boys Jumped Into the Hudson River. They Havent Been Seen Since.
At the Library, Last Call for Beauty and Books
Want more news? Check out our full coverage.
The Mini Crossword: Here is todays puzzle.
Orders to marijuana delivery services have reportedly seen a sharp increase since the coronavirus outbreak. [Complex]
Amazon is buying the former Lord & Taylor flagship building in Midtown for $1.15 billion. [The Street]
A Brooklyn man was reunited with two police officers who saved his life as an infant nearly 30 years ago. [New York Post]
The Timess Rebecca Halleck writes:
In the 17th century, Brooklyn was Breuckelen. Harlem was Haarlem. And Wall Street was an actual wall to keep the English from marching south on the Dutch colony of New Netherland.
Before the Treaty of Westminster in 1674, Britain and the Netherlands had spent two decades locked in a global game of capture the colony. As part of the pacts terms, the Dutch surrendered Manhattan to the English and in exchange legitimized their control of several islands and other territories around the world, including the sugar-rich Suriname.
Several readers recently asked The Times what inspired the Dutch to trade Manhattan for Suriname and if there were remnants of Dutch history remaining in New York City today. Their questions are part of a project from The Times that invites readers to join in our reporting process.
Though it may seem like there was a simple swap of land, that would be an oversimplification, according to Charles Gehring, the director of the New Netherland Research Center in Albany.
The English had controlled Manhattan for nine years, and mostly left alone a Dutch settlement on the southern tip of the island, before the summer of 1673. Then, 600 Dutch marines sailed into New York Harbor, emboldening Dutch settlers to take up arms against English troops.
The Dutch emerged victorious, renaming the whole island New Netherland. They signed it away 14 months later.
The Dutch probably saw the writing on the wall, Mr. Gehring said. They were basically surrounded by the English colonies in the North and the tobacco farms in the South.
But there were also economic factors at play: The supply of beaver fur that initially brought the Dutch to the Hudson Valley was dwindling, while the demand for sugar, a crop grown in tropical climates like Surinames, had skyrocketed.
Centuries later, here are four places you can see traces of New Netherland:
The Lovelace Tavern on Pearl Street: It was accidentally discovered by excavators searching for Stadt Huys, New Netherlands City Hall, which was built in 1641.
The Schenck Houses at the Brooklyn Museum: The older of the pair was built by Jan Martense Schenck around 1675, and it survived in its original location for 275 years before being disassembled and reconstructed inside the museum in 1952.
Wyckoff House in Brooklyn: The one-room house was constructed in 1652 and is thought to be the oldest building in the city. It has a packed-dirt floor and was the home of Pieter and Grietje Claesen and their 11 children.
The Dyckman farmhouse: The house was built in 1784, after the original farmstead was destroyed during the Revolutionary War. The site was once the centerpiece of a farm covering 250 acres of Upper Manhattan.
Its Monday know your history.
Dear Diary:
I was on my way to meet some friends for lunch. I was wearing my green dress with white polka dots. A young woman stopped me as I left the subway station.
That is a great dress, she said.
I was out to dinner one night at a local restaurant. I was wearing the polka dot dress again. When the waitress brought the check, there was a note at the bottom.
Best dress of the day, it said.
Another time, two men complimented me on my polka dots as I was leaving church one Sunday.
I bought a new red dress with white polka dots. I was wearing it one night while waiting for the light to change on West End Avenue. A car that was turning slowed down, and the window rolled down.
Love the dress, the woman who was driving shouted as she passed by.
That was when I realized that polka dots rule.
Catherine Henihan
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Nearly everyone in the US will be affected in some way by the COVID-19 pandemic, the illness caused by the novel coronavirus by stress and anxiety, event closures, or the illness itself. Theres cause for concern: the disease can be deadly, and the outbreak in the US is likely to continue to get worse.
Theres still a lot that scientists and doctors dont know about the new coronavirus and the illness it causes. With three months of data, though, it appears that around 80 percent of people who are infected have a mild or moderate illness, around 15 percent have severe disease (which requires hospitalization), and around 5 percent are critical (and go into respiratory or organ failure). Around 3 percent of people with confirmed cases of the infection in China died, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).
Different groups of people, though, are more likely to fall into the severe or critical categories than others:
The elderly: People who are over the age of 60 are at a higher risk of developing a severe case of COVID-19, according to data collected by the WHO. The highest death rate is in people above the age of 80. Around 15 percent of people in that age group died from the disease in one set of Chinese patients. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends that people who are older stay away from crowds and avoid nonessential travel.
Children: Children, on the other hand, dont appear to get as sick. Very few develop the disease in the first place, and if they do, only a small group develop severe or critical disease. No young children have died from the virus in China.
Researchers are still trying to figure out why thats the case. It may be that childrens lungs are less susceptible to infection or that their immune systems are stronger. Children might carry the virus around, though, and pass it between each other and then to their parents and caregivers. Thats why kids should still wash their hands as much as adults. Its also one of the reasons why areas where the virus is spreading are closing down schools.
People with chronic conditions: People who have underlying health conditions like high blood pressure, kidney disease, cancer, or diabetes are also more likely to get very sick or die from COVID-19. Around 9 percent of people with diabetes who contracted the virus died, for example, as did around 8 percent of people with high blood pressure. The CDC also recommends that people in this group avoid crowds, stick close to home, and stock up on medication for their condition if theyre able to.
Everyone else: Most people who are young or healthy and who contract the virus dont get severely ill. But if you have the virus, even if you dont get that sick, you might come into contact with people who are more at risk and pass the virus to them. Thats why its so important to stay home if youre not feeling well. Minimizing the number of people each sick person infects is low-tech, but its the best way to slow the spread of a disease like COVID-19. Its the goal of policies like school closures and event cancellations and why people who might have been exposed to the illness are asked to isolate themselves.
Not everyone can work from home, stop taking public transportation, or skip large gatherings, though. If you can do those things even though they may seem silly and even if there have not been many cases identified in your area you can help blunt the impact of the pandemic.
The fight against Covid-19 is a full-on war. China seems to have won the first battle. Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and Japan have also chalked up visible successes in mitigating the outbreak, no doubt owing to their experiences in dealing with the 2003 Sars epidemic. Europe and the US, on the other hand, are only just awakening from their illusions of invulnerability. As a result, the epidemic is now raging across the west.
The hardest-hit western country so far is Italy, which has particularly strong economic ties to China. Northern Italy is the new Wuhan (the Chinese megacity where the coronavirus first emerged). With its health system overwhelmed, the Italian government has slammed on the brakes, shutting down the retail economy and quarantining the entire country. All shops except pharmacies and grocery stores are closed. People have been instructed to stay at home and may enter public places only for necessary shopping or commuting to work. Many public and private debt obligations (such as housing rents and interest payments) have been suspended. Italy is attempting to slow down the economic clock until the coronavirus dies out.
Meanwhile, although Germany has had very few coronavirus deaths so far, the number of infections is now skyrocketing as quickly as anywhere else. In response to the crisis, the German government has introduced a short-time work allowance and granted generous credit assistance, guarantees or tax deferrals for distressed companies. Public events across the country have been cancelledand schoolchildren have been told to stay at home. And Austria, for its part, has long since closed its border with Italy. Austrian schools, universities and most shops have also been closed. Initially, France pursued a more relaxed approach, but it has now also shuttered its schools, restaurants and shops, as has Spain. Denmark, Poland and the Czech Republic have closed their borders with Germany.
The US president, Donald Trump, has declared a national state of emergency. Congress has approved an $8.3bn (6.7bn) emergency programme to fund efforts to contain the epidemic. Even larger sums are awaiting passage through the Senate. The federal government has also barred foreign travellers, first from China and Iran, and now from Europe.
Globally, not all responses to the crisis have been well targeted, and others have not been strong enough. Most worryingly, some governments have convinced themselves that they can merely slow down the spread of the virus, rather than taking the steps needed to halt it entirely. The predictable overcrowding of hospitals in many heavily affected areas has already exposed the folly of such complacency.
On the economic front, a severe recession can no longer be avoided, and some economists are already calling for governments to introduce measures to shore up aggregate demand. But that recommendation is inadequate, given that the global economy is suffering from an unprecedented supply shock. People are not at work because they are sick or quarantined. In such a situation, demand stimulus will merely boost inflation, potentially leading to stagflation (weak or falling GDP growth alongside rising prices), as happened during the 1970s oil crisis, when another important production input was in short supply.
Worse, measures targeting the demand side could even be counterproductive, because they would encourage interpersonal contact, thus undermining the effort to limit transmission of the virus. What good would it do to give Italians money for shopping trips, when the government closes the shops and forces everyone to stay at home?
The same arguments apply to liquidity support. The world is already awash in liquidity, with nominal interest rates close to or below zero nearly everywhere. More interest-rate cuts into deep-red territory might help stock markets, but they also could trigger a run on cash.
The brutal decline in economic activities that epidemiologists say is required make crashing stock markets inevitable, given that central banks policy of excessively cheap money and pooled liabilities caused an unsustainable bubble. Because they used up their ammunition at inopportune moments, central banks bear responsibility for the bubble that has now burst.
What is really needed are fiscal measures to save companies and banks from bankruptcy, so that they can recover quickly once the pandemic is over. Policymakers should be considering various forms of tax relief and public guarantees to help firms borrow if necessary. But the most promising option is a short-time work allowance. This approach, which has been tried and tested in Germany, compensates for the underemployment of the workforce through the same channels that are already used for unemployment insurance. Better yet, it costs hardly anything, because it prevents the losses that would follow from increased real unemployment. All countries should be replicating this part of Germanys policy to prevent job losses.
But, most important, all governments need to follow China in taking direct action against Covid-19. Nobody on the frontlines should be constrained by a lack of funds. Hospital intensive-care units must be expanded; temporary hospitals must be built; and respirators, protective gear and masks must be mass-produced and made available to all who need them. Beyond that, public health authorities must be given the resources and funds they need to disinfect factories and other public spaces. Hygiene is the order of the day. Large-scale testing of the population is particularly important. The identification of each case can save multiple lives. Surrendering to the pandemic simply is not an option.
Hans-Werner Sinn is professor of economics at Munich University. He was president of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research and serves on the German economy ministrys dvisory ouncil.
Project Syndicate
This is my career this is not my side job, she said. If I only have experience in restaurants, how do I branch out?
Across the East River in Queens, Quy Tran, a 55-year-old waiter and delivery man for a Vietnamese restaurant in Jackson Heights, said he had two or three weeks of cash in the bank. I feel nervous, scared, he said, not about the sickness but about money.
And in a restaurant on Columbus Avenue, as the owners sat around a table trying to figure out how to convert to takeout and delivery, a dishwasher swept the floor nearby. He said he still owed $5,000 to the person who helped him cross the border from Mexico last year.
Im not scared to come into work, the dishwasher said. I need the job.
At Bar Tabac, a longtime bistro in Carroll Gardens, Brooklyn, Roman Kologov, a waiter, set up water glasses on empty tables as if in a trance. Basically serve whoever wants to still eat, he said when asked about the last day before closing. Would you want to eat out?
Its a question that could linger beyond the shutdown. Once the crisis passes, chefs and restaurateurs do not expect business to immediately return. After what might be months of time away, diners might be initially wary of public gatherings or might still be out of the habit of dining out.
Everyone is going to have to make an effort, Mr. Ripert, the co-owner of Le Bernadin, said. We are going to see some drastic changes in the restaurant industry. Whatever was yesterday will be difficult to recreate.
Mr. Boulud agreed. We are going to work on zero margins for a long time, Im sure, he said. We need to be able to make the guests feel more comfortable to go out.
MADRID The scene is becoming all too familiar, and now it has gripped Spain: Streets are empty, shops are shuttered, families are cloistered at home and the numbers of those infected with the coronavirus, and those who have died, are growing.
Spain like Italy and France to varying degrees is now on lockdown, struggling to contain a virus that already seems out of control, with about 8,000 people infected and almost 300 dead. In the center of Madrid, police patrolled the streets, with few cars passing along its main artery, the Castellana. In Barcelona, the Gothic Quarter was empty, and private security kept anyone from entering the cathedral.
Spains prime minister, Pedro Snchez, said he was imposing drastic measures to fight the coronavirus, forcing people to stay indoors, with exemptions only for so-called exceptional circumstances.
The situation is no joke, said Sergio Gonzlez, 26, as he walked his dog in Barcelona, a mask covering his face.
Spains 47 million citizens had another concern, too, one that has echoed across the West: how to balance democratic values and practices while trying to change peoples behavior to safeguard their health.
That debate, which has surfaced in countries from Israel to France, has special resonance for the Spanish, after a transition to democracy only in the late 1970s. It has also exasperated tensions between the central government, which is imposing strict measures of social control, and some regional governments that have long bristled at Madrids interference in their affairs.
For the Spanish, the coronavirus has also highlighted their fractured political scene. A left-wing minority government came to power promising to curtail the authority of the police to control public gatherings which increased under a 2015 law introduced by a previous, conservative administration only to step up police powers.
The majority of the Spanish population wants to overcome this virus as soon as possible, so Im convinced the majority will comply with the stay-at-home rules, said Prime Minister Snchez when he declared a state of emergency on Saturday.
For the moment, at least, it looked like Spaniards had accepted the limits on civil liberties in order to defeat the coronavirus.
While bakeries and small supermarkets remained open, as providers of essential food supplies, some shopkeepers said they initially did not know what to do.
Is jamn a primary need? asked Pol Aranda, a seller of Spanish ham at a gourmet store near Barcelonas City Hall, who was ordered by the police to close on Sunday.
As he rolled down the shops curtain at midday, Mr. Aranda tried to end on a light note.
All the regional officials and public employees working nearby came to stockpile a lot of food yesterday, so it looks like for some, its definitely essential, he said.
Since its return to democracy after the 1975 death of Gen. Francisco Franco, the Spanish government has had a state of emergency only once, in 2010, when air traffic controllers held a wildcat strike. Military intervention swiftly reopened the countrys airports.
This time, the main opposition party agreed on the need to take such measures, lambasting Mr. Snchez as having acted too late but saying it would probably approve an extension after the order expires in 15 days.
Still, there was concern about enforcement as regional tensions rose to the surface.
Politicians in the Catalan and Basque regions where there have been strong independence movements have insisted that the state of emergency should not be used to take over their specific regional powers, which include running their own police forces and managing hospitals.
On Sunday, the local news media were already reporting some law-and-order contradictions. While police officers in Madrid let off some cyclists with a warning for taking an illegal leisure ride, Catalan officers fined cyclists instead.
Many locals were struggling to understand Spains new order, with many questions left unanswered and a lack of clarity over who would be punished for breaking rules.
An Uber driver in Madrid said she was afraid to take clients and wondered if drivers would also be held responsible if the police decided a passenger should not have been out.
Jorge Muoz, a bank employee in Madrid, said he was unsure how much the lockdown would impact his joint custody agreement for his son.
I would normally take him to school on Monday, but the school is, of course, shut, he said. Im not sure if Im going to get stopped by police for driving him to his mothers instead.
One of the immediate challenges for police officers on Sunday was to persuade tourists to abide by the new rules. Some seemed to see the measures as another major blow to the principles of the European Union, built on the idea of removing borders on the Continent.
We are so used to free movement in Europe that the only way authorities can make us follow an order seems to be by putting the police out in the streets, said Leonie Missfeldt, a 24-year-old German student who was taking a last walk by the beach in Barcelona before heading home on Monday.
Marika Shinozuka and Kazuki Hayashi, both from Japan, said they wanted to squeeze in more sightseeing before leaving Barcelona on Monday, earlier than planned.
Were wearing our masks and being careful, Ms. Shinozuka said as she posed in front of a mural depicting Uncle Sam and the message I Want You To Stay Home! We are all in the same boat now.
Raphael Minder reported from Madrid, and Elian Peltier from Barcelona.
The coronavirus is raising a lot of questions for parents, like what does it mean to work from home while parenting young children? Westend61/ Getty Images hide caption
The coronavirus is raising a lot of questions for parents, like what does it mean to work from home while parenting young children?
Updated on March 16 at 1 p.m. ET to reflect new guidance on play dates during school closures. This is an evolving story and guidance from health authorities is evolving quickly.
We are education reporters by day and parents by night (and day). But, in recent weeks, our two worlds have collided, with parents and educators equally concerned about the spread of COVID-19. So here's a quick rundown of some of the great questions we've heard from listeners and readers and the answers we've been able to explore in our reporting. For even more, you can listen to this new episode of NPR's Life Kit podcast.
Q. What's the single most important thing we can do to protect our kids?
Make sure they understand that hand-washing isn't optional. And that means showing them how to do it properly: using soap, warm water and time. Washing should take 20 seconds, which means you may need to help them find a song they can sing (in their heads, maybe twice) like the ABCs or "Happy Birthday" songs. Be sure they wash whenever they come in from outside, before eating, after coughing or sneezing or blowing their nose and, of course, after using the bathroom.
For younger kids, it can't hurt to remind them that nose-picking is a no-go, and that they should cough into their elbows. If you're feeling ambitious, clip their fingernails frequently, as they provide a sneaky hiding spot for viruses. Hand lotion keeps skin comfy and unbroken, which also helps prevent the spread of infection.
A few more ideas: Try laundering things like coats, backpacks and reusable shopping bags more frequently and take off shoes when you come inside. For cleaning the house, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says "diluted household bleach solutions, alcohol solutions with at least 70% alcohol, and most common EPA-registered household disinfectants should be effective."
Q. How do I get my kids to STOP TOUCHING THEIR FACES?
Sorry. This is one of the few questions to which we have no good answer. Because I (Cory) have not yet figured out how to stop touching my own face.
As an experiment, maybe try making them wear scratchy mittens. Or do what I (Anya) did and paint your child's face so you can catch them red-handed, though this could also lead to unwanted faceprints on walls and windows.
Q. This health crisis can be scary. How should we talk about it with kids?
Keep it simple, age-appropriate and fact-based. For example, don't tell your child they won't get COVID-19; you don't know that. Instead, the CDC suggests telling children that, from what doctors have seen so far, most kids aren't getting very sick. In fact, most people who've gotten COVID-19 haven't gotten very sick. Only a small group have had serious problems. And, channeling the great Mr. Rogers: Look for the Helpers. Assure your kids, if they (or someone they love) do get sick, the world is full of grown-ups who will help. And be sure to check out this incredible comic by our colleague, Malaka Gharib. She made it specifically for kids who may be scared or confused about coronavirus.
Q. With racist incidents toward Asians and Asian Americans, is this a teaching moment for social justice?
Absolutely. We must remind the children in our lives that viruses can make anyone sick, regardless of a person's race or ethnicity. No matter where scientists first documented COVID-19, this outbreak isn't anyone's fault. Similarly, just because someone looks different or talks differently, doesn't mean they are at a higher risk of getting the coronavirus or spreading it. And let children know that if they hear language in school or on the playground that suggests otherwise, they should be sure to let you know.
Q. Why is/isn't my school being closed?
Closing schools is a complicated decision. Many school leaders and public health officials seem to be waiting for an infection or potential infection in their immediate school community before closing. While the science suggests closing schools earlier is more effective at slowing the spread of disease, it's important to understand why so many school leaders are so reluctant to close schools.
For one thing, parents should understand that for many kids in the United States, being sent home from school is also a public health risk. Many children may not have parents who can take off work, or work from home, if school is canceled. They may also live in unsafe neighborhoods. Millions of U.S. children rely on schools for free or reduced-price meals, too, and 1.5 million schoolchildren nationwide are housing-insecure. For many of these kids, having to miss several weeks of school could be incredibly destabilizing.
One more thing: Rest assured that the decision to close schools is not being taken lightly and is being made in conjunction with local public health officials. Emphasis on local this decision is being made school by school, district by district.
Q. What do we do if school is canceled?
Many parents and caregivers will have to scramble for child care, especially low-wage workers who may not have vacation or sick leave. If you're not one of those parents, try to do something to help those who are. School closure can last two weeks or more; flexibility and empathy will help us all through this.
For parents who can stay home, many are wondering: What exactly is "social distancing?" Can my children still go on play dates? Or is it screen time, all the time?
The idea with closing schools is to limit the number of social contacts. That is what is going to be most effective in slowing the spread of this disease.
The guidance on this point from public health authorities is evolving quickly, and typically towards being more strict about this rather than less.
NPR spoke to Marco Ajelli and Maria Litvinova, two scholars who have published several papers on school closures in epidemics. Litvinova had this to say:
"If the school is closed for a certain amount of time, even if it's long and difficult for parents to organize the care, it's important that they do not regroup children again because the effect of the school closure will be much less."
She says new research looking at the origins of the coronavirus outbreak in Hubei Province in China, as well as her own work looking at school closures due to flu outbreaks in Russia, suggests that limiting contacts to the size of the household, plus at most one other person, is ideal.
Ajelli echoed Litvinova: "To limit contact to two to three persons per day probably is enough to stop the epidemic to spread substantially." So depending on the size of your family, that could be it.
Families across the country are getting very creative with virtual play dates using video chat as well as platforms like Roblox, which allows kids to chat while playing a video game together.
Some public health authorities have suggested that for older children who can respect social distancing, outdoor meetups in open spaces might be permissible. But this hasn't been specifically studied, our sources say.
Q. What does it mean to work from home and parent young (preschool and elementary) kids that are home as a result of school closures at the same time? Disney+ all day everyday???
Common Sense Media is a great resource for quality screen-time recommendations both free and paid, educational and purely recreational including privacy tips. I (Anya) like Duolingo for language learning, Tynker for coding and Khan Academy for academic subjects. Epic is a subscription service with endless books and comics for tablets, searchable by age.
As we said, you can also get creative with video chat. In addition to checking in with grandparents, try setting up a remote play date for your kids. Some long-distance families stay connected with a Zoom or Google hangout portal that just stays open. Try playing hide-and-seek by carrying a laptop around the house!
Also, if school's been canceled, think about using video chat to continue learning opportunities: piano lessons, tutoring or Sunday school with your child's regular teacher. A company called Outschool does live online classes for kids.
There are even physical screen-time options. GoNoodle offers both physical dance/movement and meditation videos, and this is a great time for everyone in the family to learn TikTok dances like the Renegade.
Special note on teens and screens: Online spaces are their social spaces and it's good to respect that. Take this as an opportunity to learn more about their online worlds. Help them bust rumors and disinformation. (Check out this free online module to become an expert detector of coronavirus hoaxes.) Check in with their mental health. Be a media mentor.
Q. What about non-screen activities?
Yes! Getting outside isn't just a good idea, it's good for your physical and mental health. Go for a walk, a bike ride or, if possible, a family hike.
And here's a wild card: While everyone's home, try giving the kids more responsibility around the house, including cooking a meal or doing the laundry. And cleaning there's going to be a lot of cleaning to do!
