The process is simple. Surrender some of your blood, and a lab will filter out the cells and keep only the amber-colored serum, with the antibodies to the virus still in there and active. This serum, further refined, is called hyperimmune globulin. All that remains is to infuse the serum into a healthy person (or, in much greater quantities, into a sick one). The antibodies wont last forever, but they could last weeks or months, and either help a sick recipient heal or keep a healthy recipient from getting the virus at all.
Yesterday, a team at Johns Hopkins University led by Arturo Casadevall received FDA approval to try this technique. This has a high probability of working, based on 100 years of experience in medicine, he says. Indeed, it was used successfully to treat Ebola in 2014.
The approach does carry risks. Antibodies to a virus can make a viral infection worse in some cases, such as with dengue fever. We dont know if COVID-19 will react that way. (Most viruses do not.) Despite this, Casadevall says he has already had volunteers who wish to donate their antibodies or receive the serum from others. This is real, he says. In eight weeks, we may have something thats useful. Takeda Pharmaceuticals, a Japanese company that has developed and sold hyperimmune globulin for other conditions since 2005, has already started collecting plasma from convalescent COVID-19 patients, according to Julie Kim, an executive there. She says she hopes that Takedas product will become available in nine to 18 months.
Read: America isnt testing for the most alarming cases of coronavirus
A catch: Each COVID-19 survivor can support the immunity of at most a few others, and to do so, the survivor will have to be bled at regular intervals, becoming a human blood bag. Casadevall suggests that the ratio of convalescent COVID-19 patients to serum recipients might be as low as 1 to 2, or as large as 1 to 1010 immunized recipients for every survivor who opens his veins. The next eight weeks will be devoted, among other things, to figuring out how many people a single blood bag can support. Theyll also have to figure out which convalescent patients are best endowed with antibodies, and wring as much blood plasma out of them as possible.
And if the project works, it will create ethical dilemmas. Who will be among the lucky 10 for every survivor? Will you be able to donate your antibodies to your loved ones? Theyre your antibodies after allones you worked hard to produceand perhaps you should have the right to choose where they should go. In free countries, we are reluctant to take away citizens precious bodily fluids, bleeding one another dry, without permission.
But something feels wrong about a world in which the rich can immunize themselves by buying the blood of the poor as they stagger out of the hospital. As a matter of public health, people in need should have dibs on those antibodies. Put health-care workers first in line, Casadevall suggests, and those who care for sick relatives at home. One option would be to nationalize COVID-19 antibodies: You can keep them in your own body and enjoy them all you like, but once they get sucked out of your body, they belong to humanity and might even get pooled into a massive stockpile of blood plasma, on tap for those who need it most. Another option, less restrictive, would be to treat the plasma like kidneys. You can donate your kidney to anyone but sell it to no one. This approach, it must be said, leaves us with a shortfall of 21,000 kidneys every year, and 13 people die every day on the wait list. Let survivors sell their antibodies, and more antibodies will be available.
The first steps towards a coronavirus vaccine in the UK start next week, but a vaccine for all is still a year away at best.
Scientists at Public Health England invited the cameras in to their usually off-limits Porton Down research labs.
Theyre the highest containment laboratories in the UK that handle the really nasty stuff, like Ebola, Marburg disease and the much milder, but much more threatening SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.
The good news is that SARS-CoV-2 is very similar to SARS. While it was a one-hit-wonder in the world of epidemics, the worry caused by SARS meant lots of candidate vaccines were developed against it. And these have given the scientific community a real head start in developing one for COVID-19.
There are now 41 candidate vaccines listed on the WHOs website.
Theres a few clear leaders in the race.
Vaccines based on the RNA (or translated version of the DNA) of the virus itself. These are being made by companies like Innovio in the US and the vaccine that was first to go into humans in Seattle last week made by another US company Moderna. A team at Imperial College in London is also developing an RNA vaccine which may have advantages over these.
RNA and DNA vaccines have the advantage of being quick to develop and likely to be safe. But there are no vaccines of this type currently on the market against diseases. So no one knows if they will be the most successful against COVID-19.
Then there are more traditional vaccines, based on existing technologies that have been used for other diseases. The Institute Pasteur in France is working on converting its measles-virus based vaccine against SARS to work against COVID-19.
Coronavirus: Everything you need to know
The vaccine theyll be testing first at Porton Down is one developed by the Jenner Institute in at the University of Oxford, where theyre repurposing their adenovirus-based vaccine to work against COVID-19. The advantage these types of vaccine have over the faster-to-develop DNA and RNA type vaccines is that they are tried and tested. If the faster approaches dont work, its likely the more traditional vaccines with a proven track record in other diseases will.
As one researcher leading a COVID-19 vaccine development programme told me recently, its not a race to be first, its a race to get a vaccine that works.
And even once a vaccine is developed, and passes initial safety tests in animals and humans, it takes many more months to be mass produced in order to do a larger trial in volunteers to see if it will work. For COVID-19 these trials are most likely to start with healthcare workers whole are healthy but being exposed to the virus. At least that way the trial will be of benefit to controlling the outbreak if the vaccine seems to work.
But a vaccine wont be available for use in the community for many months after this efficacy trial is completed. So while large vaccine trials may begin in humans towards the end of this year its almost certain that a vaccine for all wont be available until well into next year at the earliest.
Police departments across the country are issuing warnings about scammers trying to trick people into reserving a COVID-19 vaccine over the phone. The callers claim to be from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and ask for peoples credit cards and Social Security numbers in order to complete the transactions.
The Daly City Police Department called out the hoax on Twitter, saying: There is no vaccine reserve program, and the CDC is not offering anything of the sort. Do not fall prey!
The Sheriffs Department in Lucas Country, Ohio, issued a similar statement on Facebook. People are texting or emailing claiming to be with the CDC and offering to let people reserve a vaccine for the COVID-19, they wrote. Anyone receiving such a call should not under any circumstances give the caller any personal information or money. Thank you.
Right now, there is no vaccine for COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus. While scientists are actively working on developing one, the process could take between a year and 18 months.
When it comes out, the news will likely come through an official statement from the government not through a phone call from someone who says theyre from the CDC. In general, any time someone calls to ask for your credit card or Social Security number, be suspicious.
The death toll for COVID-19 is on the rise, and so is the total number of cases. In the context of this global pandemic, feeling overwhelmed by all the negative information is a natural response. But researchers are also hard at work trying to understand, treat, and prevent the new coronavirus. We take a look at some of their results.
For live updates on the latest developments regarding the novel coronavirus and COVID-19, click here.
As of yesterday, the total number of deaths from COVID-19 across the world has surpassed 10,000.
Currently, the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases across the globe stands at 244,000.
These numbers can induce restlessness and worry.
The importance of taking precautions and staying safe during this global pandemic cannot be overestimated, but it is also helpful to look at some emerging research that could pave the way for future treatment and prevention.
In this article, we round up some of this evidence, which has featured recently on Medical News Today.
Researchers in Hong Kong have evaluated the impact that the outbreak has had on 43 public hospitals there.
The numbers are encouraging: In the first 6 weeks since the start of the outbreak, 413 healthcare workers dealt with 42 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Of these employees, 11 had unprotected exposure to the new coronavirus.
As a result of implementing best practices for infection control, none of the healthcare staff contracted the virus during the study period. Furthermore, no hospital-acquired infections occurred.
Dr. Vincent C.C. Cheng, from the Department of Microbiology at Queen Mary Hospital in Hong Kong, and his colleagues conclude:
Appropriate hospital infection control measures can prevent healthcare-associated transmission of the [new] coronavirus [] Vigilance in hand hygiene practice, wearing of surgical masks in the hospital, and appropriate use of personal protective equipment in patient care [] are the key infection control measures to prevent hospital transmission of the virus.
A study involving four rhesus macaques found that contracting SARS-CoV-2 the virus that causes COVID-19 protected against future reinfections.
The scientists reinfected two of the four monkeys with the virus 28 days after the initial infection.
A total of 96 nasopharyngeal and anal swabs tested negative after the reexposure of SARS-CoV-2, report the researchers. The euthanasia and necropsy of one of the two monkeys confirmed these results.
Taken together, our results indicated that the primary SARS-CoV-2 infection could protect from subsequent exposures, which have [] vital implications for vaccine design [and disease prognosis], conclude the authors of the study.
MNT contacted Martin Bachmann, a professor of vaccinology at Oxford Universitys Jenner Institute in the United Kingdom, on the broader subject of COVID-19 and building up immunity to the virus.
I can tell you, if you got [COVID-19] and you got really sick, I am sure that will make an antibody response that will also last.
Prof. Martin Bachmann
Prof. Bachmann, who is also the head of the department of immunology at the University of Bern in Switzerland, continued: But, if you have the virus and it only replicates a little and never really reaches the lymph nodes, then maybe you dont really make [an antibody response], but then you have not really been sick. [Of] anyone who has been really sick, I would be surprised to find anyone who didnt make an antibody response.
A trial is currently taking place to test a potential SARS-CoV-2 vaccine for the first time in humans.
The National Institutes of Health (NIH) have funded the trial, which is taking place at the Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute in Seattle.
In the trial, 45 healthy volunteers will receive a vaccine that contains a segment of genetic code copied from SARS-CoV-2. As the vaccine does not contain the actual SARS-CoV-2, the participants will not develop COVID-19.
Government officials caution that it may take 1218 months before the vaccine reaches the market and explain that the main purpose of this current trial is to make sure that there are no serious side effects.
However, many other efforts are underway for devising new vaccines. In this article, our research editor, Yella Hewings-Martin, Ph.D., rounded up several projects that identified a potential vaccine and therapy targets for SARS-CoV-2.
Doctors may be able to use an age-old method called passive antibody therapy to treat COVID-19, suggests research featuring in The Journal of Clinical Investigation.
The researchers who authored the paper say, Deployment of this option requires no research or development, as the method has been around since the 1930s.
The method involves collecting blood from a person who has had the virus and recovered from it. Using the serum the part that contains infection-fighting antibodies researchers hope to be able to inject another person, thus either preventing an infection or helping to fight it off.
Dr. Arturo Casadevall, a professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore, MD, and co-author of the new paper, says:
Its all doable but to get it done, it requires effort, organization, resources and people who have recovered from the disease who can donate the blood.
A new case study, appearing in the journal Nature Medicine, documents the case of a COVID-19 patient who recovered from the condition within days.
The patient was a 47-year-old woman who had contracted the virus in Wuhan, China, and the researchers examined her immune response in their effort to understand her recovery.
Prof. Katherine Kedzierska, Head of the Human T cell Laboratory in the Department of Microbiology and Immunology at the Doherty Institute in Melbourne, Australia, and her colleagues found an increase in immunoglobulins the most common type of antibodies in the womans blood samples.
The scientists also found a high number of key immune cells, such as specialized helper T cells, killer T cells, and B cells, 79 days after symptom onset.
This is an incredible step forward in understanding what drives recovery of COVID-19. People can use our methods to understand the immune responses in larger COVID-19 cohorts and also understand whats lacking in those who have fatal outcomes.
Prof. Katherine Kedzierska
For live updates on the latest developments regarding the novel coronavirus and COVID-19, click here.
It would be historic to find a vaccine that can be distributed to all countries in 18 months to defeat the coronavirus, a high-ranking researcher at the World Health Organisation told EURACTIVs partner EFE in an interview.
We are all working towards it, it is the global goal, but many things have to go well, Ana Mara Henao-Restrepo said, adding that patients safety will in no way be compromised.
Ana Mara Henao-Restrepo is the team leader for the Initiative for Vaccine Research for the WHOs Health Emergencies programme, a unit that coordinates pandemic preparedness.
INTERVIEW HIGHLIGHTS
When this pandemic ends, should we rethink the efforts we dedicate to health care systems and medical research?
At WHO, at the end of each epidemic, we work with our partners and member countries to evaluate the lessons learned and use them to improve. Our Action Plan, for example, emerged from the lessons learned after the Ebola epidemic that Africa suffered between 2014 and 2016. The cooperation of the scientific community in recent years has improved and continues to evolve: it is an endless battle, and the more we are willing to learn from what we have witnessed, the better it will be for everyone on the planet.
One of the lines of research that you are coordinating at WHO is the development of vaccines against COVID-19. At what stage are the studies?
At WHO we follow the progress of all prospective vaccines that are being developed, now more than 40. We are very, very happy because the first trial began four days ago with an experimental vaccine, Messenger RNA, developed by the Vaccine Research Centre in the US and Moderna, (a biotechnology company). If it proves to be safe, 45 people will be inoculated in two doses 28 days apart and their health will be monitored for one year. It is the first time in history that only 60 days have passed since the sequencing of the genome (of a virus) and the development of the vaccine. And a similar study in China is going to start this week.
How have you managed to start testing within two months, instead of the four or five that WHO originally planned for?
It is a matter of technological development and efficient collaboration between the research centre and Moderna. It was also important that China shared the genomic sequence of the virus for the first time and so extensively.
Does this mean that the vaccine could also be obtained before 18 months, the time initially earmarked by WHO?
It is difficult to know exactly. What we do is communicate the progress of plans and the new information that we have every day. It would be historic to achieve a vaccine that can be distributed to all countries in 18 months, we are all working towards it, it is the global goal, but many things have to go well. The processes are being accelerated but without compromising the safety of patients, following regulations and being more efficient.
If a vaccine is finally obtained, should it be distributed among high-risk groups only, or the entire population?
It is too early to say, we must better understand which people are at risk and identify what the most frequent transmission mechanisms are. As we learn more about these factors, we will be able to better refine vaccination strategies. A vaccine is always first given to people at higher risk, but it is still difficult to say who they are.
Would it serve for new waves of the disease, or possible mutations of the coronavirus?
Our goal would be to develop a general vaccine for all coronaviruses, it is a scientific ambition but it is difficult to achieve. For now, efforts are focused on making sure that vaccines protect us against the coronavirus that we are fighting today.
Regarding treatments, what advances have been made?
We have countless treatments that have not yet been systematically tested. Our team of experts helps us review the scientific evidence and with the information, we recommend treatments that seem safer based on data and tests in animals and humans. For this reason, we have chosen several treatments for the Solidarity Trial program (which coordinates experts from different countries to test treatment and share information of results).
What are those treatments?
One is with the antiviral remdesivir, produced by the Gilead company, another is a combination of lopinavir and ritonavir, commonly used for HIV carriers. A third uses chloroquine, a medicine used against malaria and rheumatism, available almost everywhere in the world.
How does the Solidarity Trial program work?
It encourages countries to participate in randomized clinical trials that can give us the evidence we need to make decisions about the best treatment for patients. When an adult patient arrives at a hospital, a decision is taken over whether they are eligible to participate in a clinical trial. The adverse effects of the drugs are few, but an evaluation is made to see whether the patient may have any.
It is difficult to predict the future, but when do you think the world can achieve, like China, zero new cases in a day, and how many cases and deaths will it cost to get there?
I cannot speculate on that, but I reiterate the call of the WHO Director-General to prepare. The more people who follow the public health measures recommended by WHO, the sooner the epidemic can be stopped, and in this sense, it is important that the media help us ensure that there is no panic but an understanding that if we all work together we can win the battle against this virus with responsibility and solidarity.
[Edited by Sarantis Michalopoulos | EURACTIV.com]
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Things appeared pretty bleak in March 2020 as the COVID-19 coronavirus disease continued to spread across the globe. Businesses and restaurants were being shut down, people were asked to stay inside their homes, and the stock market was crashing. But, according to viral list on social media, it wasnt all bad news.
On March 16, a Facebook post that supposedly highlighted some good news about COVID-19 started to spread online:
How about some good news?
China has closed down its last coronavirus hospital. Not enough new cases to support them.
Doctors in India have been successful in treating Coronavirus. Combination of drugs used: Lopinavir, Retonovir, Oseltamivir along with Chlorphenamine. They are going to suggest same medicine, globally.
Researchers of the Erasmus Medical Center claim to have found an antibody against coronavirus.
A 103-year-old Chinese grandmother has made a full recovery from COVID-19 after being treated for 6 days in Wuhan, China.
Apple reopens all 42 china stores,
Cleveland Clinic developed a COVID-19 test that gives results in hours, not days.
Good news from South Korea, where the number of new cases is declining.
Italy is hit hard, experts say, only because they have the oldest population in Europe.
Scientists in Israel likely to announce the development of a coronavirus vaccine.
3 Maryland coronavirus patients fully recovered; able to return to everyday life.
A network of Canadian scientists are making excellent progress in Covid-19 research.
A San Diego biotech company is developing a Covid-19 vaccine in collaboration with Duke University and National University of Singapore.
Tulsa Countys first positive COVID-19 case has recovered. This individual has had two negative tests, which is the indicator of recovery.
All 7 patients who were getting treated for at Safdarjung hospital in New Delhi have recovered.
Plasma from newly recovered patients from Covid -19 can treat others infected by Covid-19.
So its not all bad news. Lets care for each other and stay focused on safety of those most vulnerable.
Were not sure who wrote this Facebook post. The earliest version we could find was posted by Dr. James Fedich, but weve come across several other variations of the list across social media. We reached out to Fedich to confirm authorship but we have not yet heard back.
More importantly, this list appears to be generally accurate. Some of the statements are missing some context, are a bit exaggerated, or appear to be little more than wishful thinking, so lets take a brief look at each of the claims individually:
China has closed down its last coronavirus hospital. Not enough new cases to support them.
China built several temporary hospitals in order to care for people sickened by COVID-19. On March 11, journalists reported that these hospitals were shut down as the spread of the disease started to slow. On March 19, China reported no new locally transmitted cases had been reported for the first time since the start of the pandemic:
Doctors in India have been successful in treating Coronavirus. Combination of drugs used: Lopinavir, Retonovir, Oseltamivir along with Chlorphenamine. They are going to suggest same medicine, globally.
The Economic Times reported that the combination of two anti-HIV drugs had proven crucial to the treatment of coronavirus patients. Indias Union of Health Ministry revised its guidelines to recommend the use of anti-HIV drug combinations Lopinavir and Ritonavir on a case-to-case basis depending upon the severity of the condition of a patient having coronavirus infection.
But its unclear how effective these drugs will end up being or if they will be implemented in treatment worldwide.
Researchers of the Erasmus Medical Center claim to have found an antibody against coronavirus.
The Dutch newspaper NL Times reported that a team of ten scientific researchers from the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam and Utrecht University reported that they discovered an antibody capable of fending off an infection by the Covid-19 variant of coronavirus.
This may prove to be a big step in developing a vaccine for COVID-19.
A 103-year-old Chinese grandmother has made a full recovery from COVID-19 after being treated for 6 days in Wuhan, China.
The Independent reported on March 11 that a 103-year-old woman named Zhang Guangfen contracted the disease in Wuhan, China. Guangfen was treated for six days at the hospital before being released. Dr. Zeng Yulan told reporters that the centenarians quick recovery was likely due to the fact that he had no underlying health conditions.
Apple reopens all 42 China stores.
Although China was once the epicenter of this pandemic, the country managed to get a handle on the situation, and as of this writing cases in the country continue to drop. On March 13, 2020, Apple announced that it was reopening all 42 of its stores in China.
Reuters reported: Apple Inc (AAPL.O) is reopening all 42 of its branded stores in China on Friday [March 13], a company spokesman said, more than a month after they were shut in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak.
Cleveland Clinic developed a COVID-19 test that gives results in hours, not days.
The MetroHealth Medical Center in Cleveland, Ohio, announced on March 16 that it can test COVID-19 samples at its laboratory and get the results in just two hours. These tests, however, were in very limited supply:
MetroHealth CEO and President Akram Boutros, MD, FACHE, said: Supplies are very limited, and testing at this time must be reserved for the hospitalized patients who are critically ill and those who have had direct contact with them.
Good news from South Korea, where the number of new cases is declining.
While COVID-19 continues, currently, to spread in places like the United States, some other countries have managed to flatten the curve and suppress the spread of the disease.
Science Magazine wrote on March 17: Amid these dire trends, South Korea has emerged as a sign of hope and a model to emulate. The country of 50 million appears to have greatly slowed its epidemic; it reported only 74 new cases today, down from 909 at its peak on 29 February. And it has done so without locking down entire cities or taking some of the other authoritarian measures that helped China bring its epidemic under control.
One reason for South Koreas success, according to CNN, is that the COVID-19 outbreak occurred in a population of relatively young, non-smoking women.
Italy is hit hard, experts say, only because they have the oldest population in Europe.
While South Korea may have benefited from this disease impacting its young population first, Italy, on the other hand, has one of the oldest populations on earth.
Wired reported: Italy has been hit particularly hard, with some 2,000 deaths thus far. Overwhelmed hospital staffers have had to make devastating decisions about who to treat and who they must let perish. The reason why Italy is suffering so badly, write University of Oxford researchers in a new paper in the journal Demographic Science, may be twofold: The country has the second-oldest population on earth, and its young tend to mingle more often with the elderly, like their grandparents. Such demographic research will be critical in facing down the threat elsewhere, as more countries grapple with a deadly pandemic thats just getting started and we learn more about how the virus is transmitted within families and communities.
Scientists in Israel likely to announce the development of a coronavirus vaccine.
Haaertz reported on March 18 that scientists at Israels Institute for Biological Research have made a significant breakthrough, and that they could announce in the next few days that they have completed development of a vaccine.
Haaertz said: According to medical sources, the scientists have recently had a significant breakthrough in understanding the biological mechanism and qualities of the virus, including better diagnostic capability, production of antibodies for those who already have the virus and development of a vaccine.
However, it will still be awhile before this vaccine reaches a larger population.
Haaertz added: The development process requires a series of tests and experiments that may last many months before the vaccination is deemed effective or safe to use.
3 Maryland coronavirus patients fully recovered; able to return to everyday life.
Fox 5 DC reported on March 14 that Marylands first three coronavirus patients had all recovered and were returning to their homes.
The news outlet wrote: On Friday, Montgomery Countys Chief Health Officer Dr. Travis Gayles told FOX 5 the first three people to test positive for Coronavirus in the state of Maryland have recovered and are able to resume their normal lives.
A network of Canadian scientists are making excellent progress in Covid-19 research.
The Montreal Gazette reported on March 13 that the countrys scientists were making progress on COVID-19 research as they were able to isolate a copy of the coronavirus.
A team of Canadian researchers from Ontario has isolated and grown copies of the coronavirus, the agent responsible for the outbreak of COVID-19 that has spread worldwide, the Gazette said. The isolated virus will help researchers in Canada and across the world develop better diagnostic testing, treatments and vaccines, and to gain a fuller understanding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).
A San Diego biotech company is developing a Covid-19 vaccine in collaboration with Duke University and National University of Singapore.
A CBS TV station reported on March 12 that the San Diego biotech company Arcturus Therapeutics was working on a COVID-19 vaccine.
The outlet reported: As the race to develop a vaccine for coronavirus / COVID-19 continues globally, the San Diego based biotech company, Arcturus Therapeutics, is working on creating one at its Torrey Pines lab The biotech company is working with Duke NUS- Medical School, a partnership between Duke University and the National University of Singapore.
Tulsa Countys first positive COVID-19 case has recovered. This individual has had two negative tests, which is the indicator of recovery.
Tulsa World reported on March 12 that the countys first coronavirus case had fully recovered. The Tulsa Health Department reported the good news on Facebook:
All 7 patients who were getting treated for at Safdarjung hospital in New Delhi have recovered.
The Hindu reported on March 14 that seven coronavirus patients at Safdarjung hospital in New Delhi had recovered from the disease, writing: Safdarjung Hospital, which is treating a bulk of COVID-19 patients here in the Capital has reported that seven of the positive cases currently admitted in the hospital have recovered but are yet to be discharged.
Plasma from newly recovered patients from Covid-19 can treat others infected by Covid-19.
The final item on this list refers to an experimental treatment. U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Stephen Hahn said that the FDA was experimenting with a new COVID-19 treatment involving the plasma from a person who recovered from the disease:
Tech Crunch reported:
Hahn also highlighted another experimental treatment possibility that the FDA is investigating: Using plasma derived from blood taken from coronavirus patients who have recovered, and injecting that into other patients in an attempt to potentially jump start their own immune response.
Theres a cross-agency effort about something called convalescent plasma, he said. This is a pretty exciting area. And again, this is something that we have given assistance to other countries with as this crisis has developed, so FDA has been working for some time on this. If youve been exposed to coronavirus and youre better, you dont have the virus in your blood. We could collect the blood now, this is a possible treatment. This is not a proven treatment, I just want to emphasize that, [but we would] collect the blood, concentrate that and have the ability, once its pathogen-free, that is virus-free, be able to give that to other patients and the immunoglobulins, the immune response could potentially provide a benefit to patients.
In Summary
The claims on the popular good news list are generally accurate and supported by credible news reports. The number of new cases in China and South Korea have dropped since the pandemic began, enough so that China has closed its temporary hospitals. A number of patients have also successfully recovered from the disease, and several organizations are working on vaccines for COVID-19. However, at the time of this writing (March 19, 2020), this good news should not be taken as proof that this pandemic is soon coming to an end. Health officials in the United States continue to urge citizens to practice social distancing, and its likely that we wont see a worldwide rollout of an effective vaccine until mid-2021.
At left: a colorized electron micrograph image of the influenza virus. At right: color-enhanced electron micrograph image of SARS-CoV-2 virus particles, isolated from a patient. Science Source hide caption
At left: a colorized electron micrograph image of the influenza virus. At right: color-enhanced electron micrograph image of SARS-CoV-2 virus particles, isolated from a patient.
The fact that the novel coronavirus appeared in the middle of flu season has prompted inevitable comparisons. Is COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, pretty much similar to the flu or does it pose a far greater threat?
Although there are still many unknowns about COVID-19, there is some solid information from researchers that sheds light on some of the similarities and differences at this time.
Symptoms
Fever, dry cough, fatigue and shortness of breath. These are the most frequent symptoms of COVID-19. Some patients might develop aches and pains; just 5% get the sniffles, according to data from China indicating that COVID-19 is not usually an upper respiratory infection.
These are all symptoms that overlap with flu. The Centers for Disease Control says that anyone who is experiencing these symptoms and who has been in direct contact with a confirmed COVID-19 patient, or who lives in an area where cases are circulating, should call their doctor for advice.
Transmission
Flu and coronavirus are both thought to be spread primarily through close contact with droplets expelled from the nose and mouth of a sick person. So you can become infected by direct contact such as kissing but also by close talking with someone who's infected. The CDC recommends keeping a physical distance of about six feet away from others. You can also pick up flu or coronavirus if you touch a tabletop or phone that was coughed on, but not disinfected, in the past few hours or days, then touch your eyes, nose or mouth.
Data from China shows that each coronavirus case seems to infect around 2 to 2.5 additional people. That's higher than flu. The average patient spreads the flu virus to about 1.3 others.
New research suggests that the higher number of infections per coronavirus patient may be related to the frequency of presymptomatic transmission when people who have been infected are not yet showing symptoms but in fact could be contagious. An analysis of data from China found that 13% of cases were likely caused by people spreading coronavirus before they started coughing and feeling achy.
By contrast, flu is most contagious in the three or four days after symptoms begin, according to the CDC, and presymptomatic transmission doesn't seem to be a major driver of new cases.
It's also possible that coronavirus can be transmitted by other methods. Researchers are trying to determine, for example, if tiny droplets can stay suspended in the air in contagious doses, or if fecal matter can be a source of infection.
Degree of mild vs. severe cases
80% of coronavirus cases are mild to moderate which ranges from having a fever and a cough to low-grade pneumonia. It might still be miserable, but you can heal up on your couch at home.
Data from China shows that 20% of COVID-19 patients, though, are serious enough to get sent to the hospital. That's about ten times more often than flu. Even though a great many people are hospitalized for the flu the preliminary data for the 2018-19 flu season is nearly half a million the rate of hospitalization is far lower: 1-2% percent of cases, according to the CDC.
For coronavirus, "what's particularly concerning are the number of people who are progressing to need hospital level care and then eventually critical care and who are dying, especially at the extremes of [older] age," says Dr. Parker Hudson, an epidemiologist at University of Texas in Austin's Dell Medical School.
People who are over 60 and who have other health problems are more at risk of severe illness and hospitalization for both COVID-19 and flu.
Length of hospitalization
Once a patient with a serious case of coronavirus is hospitalized, the average stay is 11 days, according to a study based on January data from Wuhan about twice as long as the 5-to-6 day average stay for flu.
The additional days mean additional stresses on the health-care system. "To take care of intensive, really unwell people can often require two to three medical staff at one time, all in protective gear, for hours and hours," says Michael Ryan, director of the World Health Organization's Health Emergencies Program.
That's a big strain on our nurses and doctors and hospitals, and it's overlapping with flu season, which generally ends by May. From early October through the beginning of March, the CDC estimates that between 370,000 and 670,000 people were hospitalized with flu.
What percentage of the population will get each virus?
There are years of data that can answer that question for influenza. In the U.S., for example, in recent years about 8.3% of the total population get sick from flu each season, a CDC study found; including people who carry flu virus but show no symptoms, that estimate ranges to up to 20%.
Nobody knows what percentage of the population will eventually contract coronavirus. But there are some educated guesses. Since this is a new disease and there's no vaccine and no established immunity from past cycles, experts believe everyone is susceptible.
A March 19 letter from researchers at the University of Hong Kong and Harvard, published in Nature Medicine, predicted that globally, "at least one-quarter to one-half of the population will very likely become infected, absent drastic control measures or a vaccine."
An influential modeling analysis released March 16 from Imperial College of London predicted a worse-case scenario in which 81% of the U.S. population could get infected over the next few months, if no actions were taken to slow or contain the spread of the virus. Predictions from models like this appear to have spurred U.S. officials to implement social distancing measures to combat the virus's spread.
To come up with better data for COVID-19 infection rates, researchers are doing blood tests in China to see how many people have been infected in a place where the epidemic appears to have been successfully suppressed through efforts such as lockdowns, contact tracing and an increase in hospital capacity.
Death rate
Initial data shows that coronavirus is deadlier. In the U.S., seasonal flu kills 1 in a thousand people (0.1%) who get sick from it the death toll last season was more than 34,000. Worldwide, an estimated 300,000 to 650,000 people die from flu each year.
By contrast, COVID-19 is currently estimated to kill at least 10 people per thousand infected (1%). "It's about ten times more lethal than the seasonal flu," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Disease, in congressional testimony on March 11.
More data is needed to assess the COVID-19 death rate, including detailed figures on how many cases present with mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. So far, COVID-19 has killed around 10,000 people worldwide how many people worldwide and around 200 in the U.S. But infectious disease specialists warn that, if coronavirus spreads widely in the U.S., the numbers could rise quickly.
"It does have the potential to be just as bad, if not worse, in terms of the overall number of deaths and severe cases as seasonal flu," says Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Columbia University.
Treatment
Rest and supportive care are the common treatments for both flu and for coronavirus cases that don't require hospitalization.
For flu, which has been studied intensively, doctors have some additional tools to fight it, says Dr. Meghan Freeman, an infectious disease fellow at the UPMC Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh. A drug called Tamiflu aims to stop the flu virus from replicating in the body and can lessen the severity of symptoms. Other treatments that prime the body's immune system are in development.
There are no approved treatments for COVID-19 yet, though researchers are racing to see if pills for other ailments could work against coronavirus, and to develop specific therapies that would lessen symptoms and hasten recovery.
Existing medications are being evaluated in the U.S., China and other countries. "It is likely that we will know if they work in the next several months," said Dr. Fauci, director of the NIAID, in congressional testimony on March 11. Drugs under consideration include remdesevir, an experimental drug originally developed for Ebola, and an anti-malarial called chloroquine, according to WHO.
Vaccines
For vaccines that could prevent COVID-19, Dr. Fauci said it will take at least a year to a year and a half for a vaccine to be available to the public. Vaccine development requires a multi-stage process of human trials. "It will take three or four months to determine if [a vaccine option] is safe," he said, and at least another eight months to gauge whether it's effective. The first U.S. vaccine clinical trials started on Monday, the National Institutes of Health announced.
Modern flu vaccines were first developed in the 1930s and protected U.S. troops against the flu during World War II. A new vaccine is developed each year to combat the latest flu strains. This flu season, the CDC says that around 160-170 million flu shots were shipped out enough to cover about half the U.S. population.
Impact of Seasonal Weather
While flu cases are found year-round, the flu does wane when the weather gets warm. In the U.S., each flu season varies, but the number of new flu cases tends to peak between December and February, and tail off by the month of May.
Researchers think it has to do with how people spend more time outside when it's warmer, and how higher heat and humidity can cause some viruses to decay more quickly. They're also studying how the immune system may fluctuate with the seasons and exposure to sunlight.
But Dr. Bruce Aylward, an adviser to WHO, says don't count on a similar pattern for COVID-19, which is thriving in warm, tropical places: "It's roaring in Singapore. It's not flu season in Singapore. It's roaring in the southern part of China. It's not flu season."
Researchers will only know if coronavirus follows flu patterns by seeing whether infections decline as the seasons change. There's the possibility that it won't, so in the meantime, Aylward thinks hospitals should prepare as though COVID-19 is here to stay as a year-round health threat.
NewsHealthProfessor Beate Kampmann said the situation looks positive for finding a vaccine, but it will be a long process
Friday, 20th March 2020, 7:45 pm
Questions over when a coronavirus vaccine will be ready are at the forefront of most people's minds, as the Covid-19 outbreak continues to spread across the world.
A usable vaccine will not likely be ready for at least a year if not 18 months, an expert confirmed, as the process is likely to be lengthy in order to ensure it is both safe and effective against the virus.
Beate Kampmann, a Professor of Paediatric Infection & Immunity, made the comments following news on Thursday that a US trial began testing on humans.
"This is a completely new virus and there's no new vaccine ready to go because we've not made one for this particular virus before," she said. But because we have seen other viruses within the same coronavirus family such as SARS (Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus) and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus) - which were seen in the past decade vaccine developers can capitalise on some of the previous knowledge when developing a vaccine.
Positive signs
On the whole, the situation looks positive, she explained, as there are at least 35 companies and initiatives currently looking to develop a Covid-19 vaccine - meaning it is very likely there will be at least one option.
Prof Kampmann, also the director of the Vaccine Centre at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, explained that the US vaccine trial was the one furthest along currently but that it was quite unusual in that it had skipped the stage of testing in animals first.
Usually trials begin with testing on animals, but because this vaccine was likely deemed safe enough, it progressed from the lab to testing on humans straightaway. Unfortunately this does not necessarily mean it is closer to being used as there is still a series of stages before it reaches this point.
Stages of vaccine development
For any vaccine the first stage is called the pre-clinical stage, and is the development in a lab and testing on animals once something looks promising.
The next is known as clinical development, and means that the vaccine is administered initially to healthy adults - notably not people who have contracted the illness you're hoping the vaccine will work against. The reason for this, she explained, is that even if the vaccine was effective against the disease, if it leads to patients feeling extremely sick or experiencing horrible symptoms as a side-effect, no one will want to take it.
"This takes around 20 to 30 people," Prof Kampmann said. "Once the vaccine has passed this stage, also known as the safety gate, the next step is working out whether the vaccine will actually induce the antibody or immune response you predict will likely be the type that protects you against the real virus."
This is called stage two and involves a larger group of people and apart from safety also testing their blood samples. In this part of the trial, which takes several months to acquire all the results, patients' blood is tested before the vaccination and after the vaccination, including at various doses, to see how the body responds and pick the best dose.
The reason why it is predicted that a Covid-19 vaccine will only be available in over a years time is that even if one of the many candidates is successful in the early clinical phase and rushes to the next stage stage after a series of good results, it may fail a later stage and will not go further. This is why the timeframe to develop a vaccine can take so long as when one fail the process often starts again, and why several trials at early stages are a good thing right now.
"Lets say that there are several candidates that have gone to phase two as they've introduced the antibody response you wanted," Prof Kampmann said. "Now we need to test whether that vaccine actually prevents you from getting the disease because at the moment you've only been giving it to be people who don't have the disease.
"We call this an efficacy trial and that needs to enrol a large numbers of people to show that the vaccine can actually prevent the disease."
She explained that for this stage, a few thousand people are usually needed. Often a country where the outbreak is an issue is picked so that you can see the impacts of the vaccine effectively on the number of cases. If it gets to this stage and succeeds then we have a viable vaccine.
'Several options'
With so many trials underway, what happens if more than one vaccine works?
"If several look good, a decision might have to be made on which is going forward," she explained. "Issues such how easy it is to make the vaccine for millions of people and its availability and costs are considerations when choosing between more than one."
If there is an effective vaccine but maybe not for the whole world, decisions have to be made who should get it first - like health care workers for example as they are the most exposed to people with the illness and people who are likely to have particularly bad disease.
The other concern is where, and how consistently, the vaccine will be administered.
With coronavirus, even if we have a population that is mostly immune to it when the epidemic eventually dies down, there will always be newborns and people who did not get exposed, all of whom are not immune - meaning the vaccine would have to be given all the time, just like with measles or flu vaccine.
Heres what were talking about this week on the GeekWire Podcast.
It was another tumultuous week in Seattle, the epicenter of the coronavirus crisis, with restaurants and bars ordered closed, large gatherings banned, and the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths continuing to climb. We recap the weeks news, check in with gig economy workers, and hear what Bill Gates has to say.
Among the weeks events: A worker at a tech company in Seattle became the first person injected with a possible COVID-19 vaccine; Amazon says it wants to hire 100,000 workers to deal with demand, the city and state brace for a possible shelter-in-place order, and much more.
Listen above, subscribe in any podcast app, and keep reading for highlights.
Follow our live blog for up-to-date news: Coronavirus Live Updates: The latest COVID-19 developments in Seattle and the world of tech
More from the podcast: Its a tough time to be a worker in the gig economy. We interviewed gig workers who expressed fear, desperation and uncertainty.
And dont believe that story about Bill Gates trying to woo Tom Brady to play in Tampa. But do believe what Gates has been saying for years about preparing for a pandemic.
With GeekWires Todd Bishop, Taylor Soper and Monica Nickelsburg. Our podcast producer is Curt Milton. Our theme music is by Daniel L.K. Caldwell.
Differences between COVID-19 and flu? We have no immunity or vaccine for the new virus, local expert says WFTV Orlando
