Harrowing images of emergency workers struggling to cope with the onslaught of Covid-19 cases have made front pages around the world, highlighting the terrible impact the disease is having. Death tolls in Italy and Spain have been especially alarming.
But not every nation has suffered to the same grim extent. Some have avoided lockdowns but have still not suffered huge leaps in case numbers. Others have introduced strict monitoring and contact tracing of infected individuals and have managed to contain the disease so far. Here we look at the ways four very different nations have reacted.
Japan remains one of the major international puzzles as it has avoided the death tolls that have affected Italy and Spain but without imposing draconian restrictions on movement or widespread testing. Hokkaido, so far the worst-affected region with 154 cases, is now lifting its state of emergency. Some officials still believe Tokyo could still be affected by a major outbreak, however.
Sweden reacted very differently to its Scandinavian neighbours Norway and Denmark, which imposed tight restrictions when Covid-19 first appeared in Europe. Instead Sweden closed only its high schools and colleges while keeping schools for younger children open along with bars, restaurants and borders.
Germany remains a Covid-19 outlier because of its very low mortality rate: 200 out of a total of 37,000 cases, just under 0.6%. (Spains death rate is 7.8%; Italys is 10.1%.) Health experts point out that in Germany, many more people are being tested including young and healthy individuals, who are not likely to die from coronavirus.
South Korea reacted with remarkable speed in January. The nation had suffered previous coronavirus outbreaks of severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (Mers) and had a very clear idea of how to proceed. Contacts of infected people were traced with considerable effort. More than 338,000 tests have since been carried out, revealing 8,900 infected individuals of whom 111 have died, a mortality rate of 1.25%.
From the White House to the county courthouse, the coronavirus pandemic has drastically upended the 2020 elections.
Many Democratic leaders now doubt their national party convention will take place as planned in July, while President Trumps determination to hold the Republican convention could collide with life-and-death realities.
Both Mr. Trump and former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. are wary of holding public events too soon and may not engage in full-fledged campaigning until the summer.
And hundreds of congressional, statewide and local candidates, who are always overshadowed in presidential years, are turning to the role of good Samaritan aiding with groceries and hiring people newly out of work in an effort to stay visible without being insensitive to the crisis.
The virus has fundamentally transformed political life in America, affecting how candidates communicate with voters, raise money from donors and confront their opponents. This is for now the countrys first virtual campaign, as the risk of disease physically separates candidates from the people they seek to represent, and pushes officeseekers from Mr. Biden on down to appeal to homebound voters and contributors through balky web videos.
Even when more traditional electioneering resumes, the nature of this race will be profoundly different.
The outbreak, which has already claimed more than 2,000 lives in the United States and well over three million jobs, has thrust the public health threat and economic downturn to the forefront in races up and down the ballot this year.
Incumbents at every level, starting with Mr. Trump, will be judged on how they prepared for and steered the country through a crisis that has turned the life of nearly every voter upside down.
This is the question that is going to dominate the election: How did you perform in the great crisis? said Representative Tom Cole, Republican of Oklahoma, who has canceled fund-raisers and instead scheduled tele-town hall events with guests like the provost at the University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center.
The duration of the election season itself is likely to shrink significantly. The presidential campaign, which typically dominates news coverage for much of the year, could look more like one of Britains six-week general election sprints. Should the two major American candidates return to the stump before the fall, they will most likely be crowded out by the grim accounting of the countrys worst pandemic in over a century.
Regional disparities in how the virus is spreading could mean that officeseekers may be able to campaign in parts of the country that are less hard-hit. And if the social distancing measures in place mitigate the outbreak, the contenders could return to the parade and banquet circuit sooner than some anticipate.
But until the spread of the virus slows, there is likely to be little interest in the presidential race and even less in state and local races.
Representative Sean Casten, Democrat of Illinois, has culled his campaigns phone bank list to voters 60 or older. Rather than ask them policy questions or trumpet his accomplishments, Mr. Castens volunteers ask if they need any health and safety information and provide a list of senior-only hours at local supermarkets.
Nobody wants to talk about my thoughts on carbon pricing, said Mr. Casten, who was a renewable energy executive before he was elected to Congress in 2018.
At the moment, there effectively is no campaign of any consequence to voters who are consumed with their familys safety and well-being.
Every issue in my district is impacted by this, said Representative Elise Stefanik, a Republican who represents much of New Yorks vast North Country. This is going to be an economic issue, its going to be a higher ed issue, its going to be a border issue.
The long sweep of American history is filled with presidential elections that took place during times of war and upheaval, but there is little modern precedent for a campaign unfolding against a backdrop of such widespread national fear.
The closest comparison may be the New York mayoral race in 2001, when the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks loomed over the citys general election. In presidential politics, the Vietnam War, assassinations and civil rights struggles shaped the 1968 campaign and seemed to reveal a country coming apart.
But some historians believe the closest comparison to this year, the last time the entire nation was consumed by a single issue, may be 1944, when the threat of Nazi Germany and imperial Japan fully mobilized American citizens behind the war effort.
That was the last time there was this sort of disruption in our daily lives and change in rituals, said Doris Kearns Goodwin, the presidential scholar, noting that millions were deployed in arms and those who remained home lived with rationed goods. But at least people then could go to work, be part of the effort to win the war.
Sensing opportunity, Mr. Trump has sought to portray himself as a wartime leader in daily televised news briefings. It has given him a bump in the polls, with his approval ratings creeping up toward 50 percent as independents and some Democrats rally behind him, while Mr. Biden, the likely Democratic nominee, is largely drowned out by the president and even Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York.
Its a defining moment, said Henry Barbour, a Republican National Committee member from Mississippi, adding of Mr. Trump: The more he reassures Americans, gives them the facts and delivers results, the harder it will be for Joe Biden.
A race that turns entirely on the response to the current health and economic crises could also render other traditional campaign markers less important if they happen at all.
While Mr. Trump is loudly insisting his convention will go on in Charlotte, N.C., in late August, it remains to be seen whether the Democratic governor, Roy Cooper, would allow such a large gathering in his states most populous city.
Democratic officials are even more skeptical about their convention.
Hundreds of local and state conventions have already been canceled or become mail-in, telephone or online events. Theres talk among some Democrats of conducting the national convention online or through the mail, with some operatives and fund-raisers discussing a one-night television event that could replicate a star-studded awards show.
The D.N.C. is going to have to start considering that this convention will have to be held in other ways, said Ken Martin, the Democratic chairman in Minnesota who is also the president of an organization of state Democratic leaders.
For now, Democrats are using a barrage of ads to try to remind voters of Mr. Trumps initial dismissal of the viruss severity, but its been difficult to broadly divert attention from the threat of the moment.
Some in the party, however, believe the president will ultimately be held to account for his slow response, the unfolding damage to the economy and will suffer from the new light the crisis will cast on domestic issues in the fall.
The administrations court case to repeal the A.C.A. takes on a very different meaning, said Guy Cecil, who runs a Democratic super PAC, referring to the legal effort to strike down Obamacare in its entirety.
But the larger question for Mr. Trump may be whether he can sustain the appearance of a wartime leader able to summon Americans to sacrifice.
The president has already displayed impatience and pique that could damage his re-election chances, lashing out at governors, refusing to take any responsibility for the coronavirus crisis and suggesting Americans can return to life as usual in a way that experts say could exacerbate the spread of the virus.
His campaign is already discussing the possibility of a rally-style event in one of the less-affected states in late April, although one adviser said those discussions are preliminary.
While they would have preferred to use the months before Mr. Biden formally claims the nomination to define the former vice president to their advantage, Republicans generally believe this crisis has done little to diminish Mr. Trumps prospects.
His campaign continues to raise money online at a brisk pace, but Republican officials privately conceded it has been harder to raise money without events featuring the president.
Fund-raising has been even more difficult for other candidates on the ballot, who often rely more on big-dollar, in-person events rather than internet solicitations.
Corry Bliss, a Republican strategist, said he expects fund-raising totals for federal candidates from the first three months of the year to be down about 20 percent from what they would have been without the pandemic.
In Missouri, Nicole Galloway, the state auditor and a Democrat, is running for governor. On Thursday night she held a virtual cocktail hour by teleconference with a few dozen invited supporters.
With framed photos of her three children over her shoulders, Ms. Galloway told about 60 supporters that Missouris Republican governor has been following her lead in responding to the pandemic, answered questions about education funding and professed sadness that she couldnt travel the state in person.
In the small frames atop the screen, supporters could be seen pouring and mixing drinks. One Missouri donor had distributed a recipe for a drink called The Democrat, inspired by the native son Harry Trumans fondness for bourbon.
Ms. Galloway is hardly the only candidate being creative.
In Georgia, Lynne Homrich, a Republican running for the House, announced her campaign would hire 20 people who had been laid off from local businesses, augmenting a paid campaign staff of five ahead of her May 19 primary.
Ms. Homrich, a former Home Depot executive, began sorting through dozens of emails from people seeking campaign staff work which in the age of virus means calling or writing people from ones own home.
Hiral Tipirneni, a former emergency room doctor running for Congress in Arizona, said she spends just as much time explaining the details of the pandemic in phone calls, video chats and during Facebook Live sessions as she does asking people to vote for her in November.
They have medical questions, Ms. Tipirneni said. Its a scary time and whatever I can do to alleviate some of those fears, its a moral responsibility.
A CNN review of the latest airline-related data gives a clearer picture of how air travel has ground to a halt, a result of isolation measures around the country.
The latest announcement on Friday from American Airlines reflect the trends around the industry: Over the next two months, it expects to fly as little as 20% of its domestic schedule and between 10% and 20% of its international schedule.
Many of those planes have just a handful of passengers. American CEO Doug Parker said his planes are about 15% full. US airlines started the year filling about four of five available seats, but are now, on average, filling just one of every five seats, according to data from Airlines for America, an industry group.
The sliver of usual traffic that is now trickling through airport security checkpoints show how few people are packing their bags. The Transportation Security Administration on Thursday screened just 8% of the travelers that it did on the equivalent day in 2019 -- the first day since the coronavirus pandemic reached the US when that number has dropped below 10%.
As the number of travelers nationwide has dropped, TSA has cut back on the number of checkpoints it operates, particularly at medium- and large-sized airports, according to an aviation official familiar with the matter.
In some cases, the official said, the reductions have been linked to a reduced availability of officers to work. More than 60 TSA officers have tested positive for the coronavirus, according to agency data compiled by CNN. The union representing them said dozens more have needed to stay home due to the possibility of exposure.
The official noted that the drop in traffic means multiple security lanes are not needed and can be consolidated. The closures have also allowed the agency to space out the number of lanes that are operational.
The stark figures underscore why the nation's passenger and cargo airlines requested a $58 billion federal relief package, divided between grants to pay employees and loans for other expenses. Parker said his airline expects to receive "about $12 billion" of the package.
An additional $10 billion is for airports, and $3 billion is reserved for the companies whose employees stock and clean aircraft between flights.
Across the industry, airlines have slashed from their schedules. Two operators of regional jet service that work for American, Delta and United Airlines, are closing their doors because the cuts and passenger declines were too deep.
When Delta Air Lines unveiled one round of cuts, CEO Ed Bastian told employees in a memo obtained by CNN that "the speed of the demand falloff is unlike anything we've seen." Days later, the airline made even steeper cuts -- and is now flying only 30% of its usual schedule.
United says it is currently operating at only 68% of its schedule. Earlier this month, it cut its international schedule by 95%, then added a few flights back to its roster, adapting to the plight of Americans overseas who were "displaced and still need to get home."
Southwest is eliminating 1,500 of its 4,000 daily flights.
The schedule cuts have snowballed as the US and other governments rolled out travel restrictions. Some of the latest flight cancellations are linked to quarantine restrictions in Hawaii. The infrastructure around tourism and travel -- including conferences, hotels, sightseeing, cruises and restaurants -- have cut operations and staff.
Airlines are similarly closing lounges for premium travelers and cutting back on amenities for travelers, such as poured drinks on aircraft. Southwest, for example, is shifting to serve passengers only water in individual cans.
The schedule cuts mean the airlines need to operate far fewer planes. Delta has grounded 600 planes -- more than half its fleet. American says its grounded jets are congregating at airfields in Pittsburgh, Tulsa, Roswell, New Mexico, and Mobile, Alabama.
Airlines for America says about 1,200 planes in the US fleet of 6,215 have been grounded due to the coronavirus outbreak -- not including planes like the Boeing 737 MAX that were grounded a year ago, or are awaiting delivery.
Airlines rarely ground planes because it not only means no revenue, but losses. Planes in short-term storage require regular maintenance to remain ready to return into service.
Worldwide, nearly a third of the 17,750 passenger jets in operation are parked, according to the aviation data firm Cirium. That number is growing rapidly: It said 1,000 more planes were parked since its update a day earlier.
The airlines also need fewer pilots, flight attendants, and other employees. Hundreds of pilots at American Airlines have accepted early retirements. Delta announced Friday that more than 21,000 employees are taking unpaid leave. The memo to employees, obtained by CNN, described unpaid leave as "the most important way you can help the company over the next few months. We could use more volunteers."
One bright spot for airlines: The need for cargo shipping has grown. American Airlines recently flew its first cargo-only flight since 1984, laden with medical supplies, mail and packages people ordered from online retailers.
CNN's Chris Isidore and Joshua Replogle contributed to this report.
This week, as cities and states began locking down, stock markets tumbled and jobless claims hit record levels, Mr. Trump again played down the impact of the pandemic and said, with no evidence and contrary to available research, that a recession would be deadlier than the coronavirus.
The president has also dispensed a steady stream of optimism when discussing countermeasures against the virus.
From later February to early March, Mr. Trump repeatedly promised that a vaccine would be available relatively soon despite being told by public health officials and pharmaceutical executives that the process would take 12 to 18 months. Later, he promoted treatments that were still unproven against the virus, and suggested that they were approved and available though they were not.
Outside of medical interventions, Mr. Trump has exaggerated his own policies and the contributions of the private sector in fighting the outbreak. For example, he imprecisely described a website developed by a company affiliated with Google, wrongly said that insurers were covering the cost of treatment for Covid-19 when they only agreed to waive co-payments for testing, and prematurely declared that automakers were making ventilators right now.
Often, he has touted his complete shut down or closing of the United States to visitors from affected countries (in some cases leading to confusion and chaos). But the restrictions he has imposed on travel from China, Iran and 26 countries in Europe do not amount to a ban or closure of the borders. Those restrictions do not apply to American citizens, permanent residents, their immediate families, or flight crews.
Not only were these restrictions total and absolute in Mr. Trumps telling, they were also imposed on China against the advice of a lot of professionals, and we turned out to be right. His health and human services secretary, however, has previously said that the restrictions were imposed on the recommendations of career health officials. The Times has also reported that Mr. Trump was skeptical before deciding to back the restrictions at the urging of some aides.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention sent test kits to states in February, some of which were flawed and produced inconclusive readings. Problems continued to grow as scientists and state officials warned about restrictions on who could be tested and the availability of tests overall. Facing criticism over testing and medical supplies, Mr. Trump instead shifted responsibility to a variety of others.
Congress has passed, President Trump has signed, a $2 trillion stimulus bill that includes checks to taxpayers. Here's how to see what you might get. USA TODAY
Do not give out your PayPal account information, Social Security number, bank account number or anything else if someone claims such information is essential tosign you up for a stimulus check relating to the coronavirus pandemic.
It's not. It's a scam.
It's time to warn consumers once againthat we need to practice some social distancing from the scammers.
The FBI, state attorneys general and other agencies are alerting Americans that phone calls, texts or emails asking for personal or financial information to get the $1,200 federal payment are not legit.
Your money is important: Money tips and advice delivered right to your inbox. Sign up here
Michigan Attorney General DanaNessel on Thursday issued what she called "an urgent consumer alert" relating to scammers who play upfederal stimulus checks. In other states, the Better Business Bureau has reported that the level of "stimulus scams" has gone through the roof.The real stimulus cash is likely to hit bank accounts within the next three weeks or later, but taxpayers don't have to sign up to get the money. Checks are expected to take longer. And yes, some people could experience delays.
Stockpiling food on a budget: Here are inexpensive staples to put in your pantry
How to use your stimulus check:Savings, debt payment, support local shops? How to bestuse your $1,200 payment
It's estimated that as many as 150 million U.S. households would be eligible to receive full or partial payments, according to the Tax Policy Center.
According to Nessel's alert, consumers are already reporting that they've received phishing emailsthat include phony websites that look official.
The FBI and top cops in states are warning consumers: Beware of stimulus check scammers(Photo: Matt Rourke, AP)
The scammers are demanding that potential victims provide PayPal, bank account or other financial information to get a much-talked-about stimulus check that is part of thefederal economic-relief package.
Anyone who receives such texts or emails should ignore them or delete them. Never click on links because you might download malware onto your computer.
In some cases,fakephishingscams might ask for a persons bank account information and insist$1,000 or morewill be depositeddirectly into his or her bank account. Again, it's a scam.
Families across the U.S. will get a portion of money from the federal government's sweeping $2 trillion stimulus package. But how much? USA TODAY
Consumers are not going to need to sign up for the stimulus checks.
Under the program, all U.S. residents with an adjusted gross income up to $75,000 ($150,000 married), who are not a dependent of another taxpayer and have a work-eligible Social Security number, are eligible for the full rebate check.
They would receive $1,200 per adult or $2,400 married as part of a stimulus rebate. In addition, they are eligible for an additional $500 per child.
"This is true even for those who have no income, as well as those whose income comes entirely from non-taxable means-tested benefit programs, such as SSI benefits," according to the Senate compromise.
No action will be required for the vast majority of Americans.
Stimulus check: Calculate how much money you could get
What we know: How the $2T coronavirus stimulus will affect you and the economy
The Internal Revenue Service will use a taxpayer's 2019 tax return or a 2018 tax return for information in order to send out the money via direct deposit or check.
The rebate amount is reduced by $5 for each $100 that a taxpayers income exceeds the phase-out threshold. The amount is completely phased-out for single filers with incomes exceeding $99,000, $146,500 for head of household filers with one child, and $198,000 for joint filers with no children.
See the IRS website, irs.gov/coronavirus, for updates. Right now, the IRS is discouraging callsabout the checks. Check the website for updates.
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If the rate of growth in coronavirus cases in the New York metro area continues, it will suffer a more severe outbreak than those experienced in Wuhan, China, or the Lombardy region of Italy.
There is no guarantee, of course, that current trends will continue. What has happened to this point cant be used to predict what will happen next. It is possible that social distancing will soon slow or arrest the growth of cases.
But what can be said is that the New York metro area has had less success in flattening the curve, at this point in its outbreak, than Wuhan or the Lombardy region did at the same point in theirs. And some other American metropolitan areas appear to be on a similar path.
Here are four ways to measure the size of the outbreak across the countrys metro areas.
The New York City area has more known cases per capita than any other metro area in the United States.
Figures as of March 26; includes micropolitan statistical areas
Pros of this measure Focuses on communities where the disease is prevalent.
Cons Varying testing rates make comparisons difficult. Not all confirmed cases are active.
In the early stages of an outbreak, the population size doesnt matter one infected person will probably infect a few people, whether that person lives in a metropolitan area of 100,000 or one of 10 million. But as an epidemic progresses, the number of cases per capita can provide a good measure of the prevalence of coronavirus in a community. Per capita measurements also give a sense of how strained a communitys health care system has become, since larger places tend to have more medical resources.
To make useful per capita comparisons, weve focused on metropolitan areas instead of countries or cities or U.S. states. Thats because metropolitan areas roughly correspond with the regions where the virus might spread quickly among families, co-workers or commuters. The New York City metropolitan area includes nearby cities and suburbs in Westchester, Long Island, and northern New Jersey, as well as sprawling, outlying areas that stretch even farther from the city.
As of March 26
Our tables include numbers from Lombardy and Wuhan to provide a benchmark for metro areas in the United States. The comparisons are illustrative, but not exact. Those outbreaks have been going on longer, which means their case numbers are spread over more time. In most of the U.S., cases are from only the last month.
The number of confirmed cases is an imperfect measure of what we really care about: the prevalence of the virus in the population, and therefore if it is early in the epidemic how many people are sick or may be contagious. The limited availability of testing in some places means that many people with coronavirus wont be counted among the confirmed cases. And the varying rates of testing across states and countries make it hard to compare the number of confirmed cases in different regions.
Deaths per capita are currently higher in the New York City area than in most other places.
As of March 26; includes only metro areas with three deaths or more.
Pros of this measure Coronavirus deaths are much more likely to be accurately counted than total cases.
Cons Death rates depend on the underlying health and age of various communities. They also lag infections by several weeks, so they dont tell us whats happening now.
Examining deaths can allow for a more direct comparison between communities, since it avoids many of the problems with variable testing. Testing differences matter less in measuring deaths because in most places with established outbreaks in the United States, the sickest patients are getting tested. (That may be less true in other parts of the world: Patients who die outside hospitals in Britain and Italy have, in some cases, been omitted from official data.)
But measuring only deaths has drawbacks, too. We know that the death rate from coronavirus differs depending on the age and health of the populations affected and the availability of medical resources, like ventilators. That means that per capita rates may look high in places where the virus has infiltrated nursing homes, for example, even if it has not spread widely through the rest of the community.
Because patients who die of Covid-19 tend to be sick for weeks first, counting deaths may also understate the current size of the outbreak in a given place if it is growing quickly.
As of March 26; includes only metro areas with three deaths or more.
The number of cases in the New York area is still growing quickly.
To assess the possible future of the outbreak, its helpful to look not just at the number of cases but also at how quickly they are increasing. The accompanying chart shows the growth rate of cumulative cases over time, averaged over the previous week.
Pros of this measure Growth rates help us judge whether the epidemic is getting better or worse in a given place right now.
Cons The timing of different outbreaks can make comparisons difficult. Case data quality varies a lot by place.
Here, we can see whether the trajectory of a local epidemic is getting better or worse. A growth rate of 40 percent on this chart means the cumulative number of cases is growing by 40 percent every day. A rate of 100 percent would mean that the number of cases was doubling daily.
Public health officials have been talking about the value of social distancing measures as a way to flatten the curve of the epidemic. Such a flattening would mean that the rates in this chart are falling, eventually to zero. New Yorks current growth rate is just over 30 percent, suggesting that its curve remains quite steep, and that the disease is continuing to spread rapidly throughout the region.
In some other metro areas, like Baton Rouge, La., the growth rate is high, but the number of cases is still low. That means the community may still have time to flatten its curve before the outbreak becomes widespread. But communities with a lot of cases and a high growth rate are on track to have a serious problem. A high growth rate on top of a large number of cases means that a still larger number of people are on track to become ill or die.
Case numbers in the New York area are also growing quickly given the size of its outbreak.
Pros of this measure Helps distinguish between places where cases are growing fast with few cases and places where cases are numerous and still growing fast.
Cons Hard to read. Relies on case data.
The chart above shows the growth rate by the number of cases in a given place. This measurement shows whether a community has succeeded in slowing the rate of growth before there are many cases. In other words, it shows whether a community is succeeding at flattening the curve.
By this measure, the situation in the New York area does not appear promising. The rate of increase in cases is far higher for the number of cases than it was in Wuhan or Lombardy, once they had reached similar numbers of cases. Other metropolitan areas, like Detroit and New Orleans, stand out as places where a coronavirus outbreak might escalate quickly without preventive measures. The Seattle and San Francisco areas, in contrast, seem to have made serious progress in flattening the curve.
The chart also helps avoid the illusion of success created by a slow, initial rate of growth. Many charts depict the growth of cases over time, and it can be easy to assume that the communities that get an outbreak quickly, and therefore appear above the pack on the chart, are faring the worst. But a community that experiences a high rate of growth with a large number of cases is in serious trouble, regardless of whether the outbreak occurs 10 or 100 days after it had its first cases.
Editor's note: If you'd like an email notice whenever we publish Ross Ramsey's column, click here.
Only three COVID-19 cases have been confirmed in the 22 counties in state Rep. Drew Springers North Texas House district, and he said Thursday that a lot of people are just coming to the realization about why we need social distancing.
There were more people on the road in Gainesville and Muenster yesterday than in New York City, he said.
My constituents would have argued [earlier] that were drastically overreacting, Springer said. I think as they have started hearing more, theyre coming around. ... Im waiting to see whether the cases here, and the names of people who get sick, will change peoples opinions.
Pandemic is a word for a disease that is no longer local, that has taken on worldwide scope.
But the responses to the new coronavirus pandemic in Texas and elsewhere are distinctly local and vary deeply from the mostly voluntary shelter-in-place orders in effect in the states most populated cities and counties to the wait-and-see positions of governments and businesses elsewhere.
Those local differences help explain why statewide officials like Gov. Greg Abbott have been so reluctant to issue statewide stay-at-home orders. Metropolitan areas are aggressively putting social distancing rules in place, while less populated parts of Texas are more reticent.
Reports of COVID-19 cases might not be as prevalent outside of the metropolitan areas, and official actions have been slower and less restrictive.
In Midland, many residents have continued their normal routines, shopping in grocery stores and at busy retail locations. The city hasnt issued restrictive orders but has been talking about it. Theres a striking parallel between the places restricting social gathering and the political map, but thats not what some politicians see.
I dont know if its a red versus blue thing; its a human nature thing, said Jack Ladd Jr., a member of the Midland City Council. A lot of people want to see something like this before they react.
That visibility is increasing as cases pop up in Midland. And the county recorded its first death attributed to COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, this week, which has prompted more discussion from public leaders.
At the same time Abbott was issuing his first set of emergency orders, Anderson County in East Texas was doing the same, barring gatherings of 10 people or more and asking people to limit their interactions.
County Judge Robert Johnston said the reaction has been pretty positive overall. He said some churches have pushed back, noting many of them dont have the kind of internet access that would allow online services to replace in-person congregation.
The order has limited gatherings but hasnt kept people inside, Johnston said. No, I dont think theyre staying at home. They are eating at home, still running errands, but there are fewer people out.
So far, the county hasnt reported any confirmed cases of COVID-19, either from its general population or from any of its five state prisons.
The county has no plans to impose a shelter-in-place order, he said, but suggested it might not be necessary. People know if were going to get a hand on this, were going to have to stay home.
Lubbock stopped short of telling residents to stay at home, but it did put restrictions in place. Lubbocks emergency order, Mayor Dan Pope said, is like the stay-at-home orders elsewhere, without the panic in it.
You know West Texas, he said. We have a little more common sense ... and a healthy sense of skepticism.
I would say people are in two camps those who have bought in and understand and are really staying home, and another group thats harder to reach, he said.
He said Lubbocks two hospitals are well situated at the moment they can open another 40 ICU beds if needed and added that we dont have any stress on our health care system at this time. As of Thursday, the city had a drive-through testing center, and he said it plans to have a total of four by Monday. Lubbock County had 19 confirmed cases of COVID-19 on Thursday, he said.
Springers House District 68, which stretches from north of Dallas-Fort Worth across North Texas and into the Panhandle, is seeing a new kind of visitor he attributes to the pandemic: shoppers.
The odd stuff here is really the foot traffic, he said.
One meat market sold out in a matter of hours this week. Some of the stores are limiting sales, he said, to allow locals a chance to buy groceries and supplies before out-of-towners scoop them up.
He said the county clerks in Cooke and Montague counties have seen a rush of lovebirds from the D-FW area, where the courthouses are closed, seeking marriage certificates. The clerk has to actually see both people to issue a license, he said. Some of them dont want to wait.
The coronavirus pandemic, which has escalated dramatically in the last month, has upended most of American life and the polling industry is no exception. Social distancing requirements have closed most offices and the exponential growth of cases has meant that a poll can be outdated even just a few days after it's conducted due to the rapid shifts in public opinion.
Polling is conducted in numerous ways and with an almost infinite number of methodological choices to be made. Surveys can be conducted by phone with live people asking questions, online, by mail, in person, by phone with automated callers and many other options in between, each presenting their own pros and cons in the pandemic.
And now public opinion firms are combating issues such as conducting polls without a room full of people at call centers, an influx of interest in pandemic data and a news cycle that won't stay still long enough to field a poll.
But with rapidly changing data comes new innovations and strategic changes to the polling industry. In an effort to gauge public opinion, many call centers are working from home, while pollsters who are methodologically diverse are relying more and more on online polling to properly represent the nation, trying to keep their finger on the ever-moving pulse.
How to have a call center at home
"Our work from home infrastructure has been in place for more than a decade, thankfully. We had it all set up," she said. "So, with the recent coronavirus development, we've been transitioning as many of our interviewers as possible using that technology. If we had to build this infrastructure on the spot, I think it would've been difficult to do."
Without that infrastructure in place, companies may have been scrambling to properly equip the thousands of call center employees before sending them off, but Herrmann reports they've been prepared.
"A few years ago, we moved our phone operations to where people are able to work remotely and essentially use a virtual console to do dialing from their homes. So, we're able to have some consistency and some continuity in our phone operations," Jackson said.
Ipsos conducts polling in multiple ways: over the phone, their online panel, mail, face to face and more. Jackson said the company is "methodologically agnostic" despite being known for their Ipsos KnowledgePanel.
It's important that Ipsos' and other pollsters remain relatively consistent with their methodology since many surveys have a trend line dating far back in history, and a change from live phone to online could make surveys not directly comparable.
Those guidelines vary country to country, but in the US, Jackson said Ipsos is pivoting slightly by relying more heavily on their online panel. Herrmann reports SSRS hasn't changed their methods significantly, but is ensuring all employees are safe.
Increased response rates
Jackson told CNN that, anecdotally, he's seen an increase in the people responding to surveys.
"We've definitely seen a real spike in demand, especially for our online platform," he said. "We've been talking internally, and we think we've done -- across the entire company, around the world -- around over a million interviews over the past couple of weeks. People who are stuck at home have nothing else to do but answer surveys, right?"
While there aren't any hard figures on response rates over the past few weeks, all pollsters mentioned some preliminary numbers that showed a boost in phone responses, online responses, people ready to discuss the issue.
Herrmann noted how interested Americans are in discussing the constantly changing issue, saying, "People have been really engaged about speaking to us on these salient topics and current events we're asking about, particularly coronavirus, due to the obvious impact it's having on everyone's lives right now."
How quickly the data is changing
Pollsters already struggle to keep up with the news. Polls with a short fielding period take around three days, depending on what questions the pollsters are asking, and pollsters often run the risk of having their poll completely irrelevant by the time the data is released.
Upwards of 30 polls have been released on coronavirus since February, included a huge number this week alone. Many are repeat polls, trying to get a proper trendline to show how quickly concerns around coronavirus have surged.
Companies like Abt Associates -- another major survey outlet contracted by private and public sectors alike, including the CDC -- are seeing how far and wide the data can reach.
"Not only do we need to maintain continuity for our current data collection, analytic, and systems support efforts, but we also have to continue providing urgent support to agencies attempting to understand the wide-ranging impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on public health, homelessness, the education of our children, food security and the like, in addition to efforts to track the prevalence of the virus itself," writes Link.
Survey demand and employee safety
But increased response rates and a salient topic doesn't always mean easy going for the pollsters. Media attention spikes around coverage of emerging infectious diseases and pollsters are feeling the heat of a busy news cycle.
Herrmann told CNN that SSRS can anticipate this, but still says they're working long hours.
"Once you do polling, you're pretty accustomed to working quickly. Our teams are used to it. But it has been changing so quickly in this case," she said.
Herrmann specifically discussed concern for her employees at SSRS. After lamenting how much she misses the office -- they usually conduct their own daily poll around the coffee machine for questions like "favorite candy type" -- she said she's had to be assertive, making sure they aren't biting off more than they can chew and are keeping their own well-being at the forefront.
"But in terms of what has changed, it's mostly been from a personnel perspective, making sure we're doing things in the best interest of our staff. You have to be forceful about it and we're trying to keep everyone safe."
Jackson said he's been working long days but wants to get his data out there before it goes bad, since the dialogue has changed so quickly.
"It's a terrifying, yet fascinating time to be doing public opinion research," he said.
An organ transplant specialist has become the first working NHS surgeon to die from coronavirus.
Adil El Tayar, 63, died on Wednesday at West Middlesex university hospital in London, his family said.
The doctor, who had worked around the world, spent his final days volunteering on the frontlines against the outbreak in an A&E department in the Midlands.
He wanted to be deployed where he would be most useful in the crisis, his cousin, British-Sudanese journalist Zeinab Badawi, said in a moving tribute on BBC Radio 4.
It had taken just 12 days for Adil to go from a seemingly fit and capable doctor working in a busy hospital to lying in a hospital morgue.
Tayar started self-isolating at home after developing symptoms about two weeks ago, but was taken to hospital and placed on a ventilator after his condition worsened.
Four days later medics told his family that his lungs had come under attack from the virus and he could no longer breathe unaided.
Until I had learned of Adils death I had been fairly phlegmatic about the pandemic, Badawi said. But there is nothing like a death in the family to bring home the realities of what we are facing.
Badawi learned of her cousins death on Thursday, three minutes before she joined millions across the UK in applauding NHS workers.
She said: Clapping along with my neighbours engendered in me a feeling of unity that we are all in this together and that we sink or swim together.
Perhaps this transformation will be permanent. I hope it will be.
Former colleague Abbas Ghaznafar, a renal transplant surgeon at St Georges University in Tooting, described Tayar as a noble human being who was a hard-working, dedicated surgeon.
Dr Hisam El Khidir, another of the surgeons cousins, told the BBC that he suspected Tayar had caught the virus while working on frontlines.
The British ambassador to Sudan Irfan Siddiq tweeted: Saddened to hear of Sudanese doctor Adel Altayars death in the UK from Covid-19.
Health workers around the world have shown extraordinary courage. We cannot thank them enough. In this fight we must listen to their advice.
Tayar leaves behind a wife and four children, two of whom also work as doctors in the NHS.
El Khidir told the BBC: Adil was someone who was central to our family, who was well respected by so many people.
Since his death on Wednesday, I have had hundreds of text messages from his colleagues and friends. He will be sorely missed.
Pennsylvania has scant reserves and likely cant rely on them to bridge the gap: The states rainy day account could fund government operations for only about 3 days, even after a large deposit last year. The decision to extend the deadline prioritizes public health at a time when Wolf is urging Pennsylvanians to stay at home to help prevent the spread of the virus, said Jeffrey Johnson, a state Department of Revenue spokesperson.
