In the Santa Clara County study, researchers tested 3,330 volunteers for antibodies indicating exposure. Roughly 1.5 percent were positive. After adjustments intended to account for differences between the sample and the population of the county as a whole, the researchers estimated that the prevalence of antibodies fell between 2.5 percent and a bit more than 4 percent.
That means that between 48,000 and 81,000 people were infected in Santa Clara County by early April, the researchers concluded.
In Los Angeles County, researchers conducted antibody tests for two days at six drive-through test sites in early April and estimated that between 2.8 percent to 5.6 percent of the countys adult population carried antibodies. If accurate, that would mean that 220,000 to 442,000 residents have been exposed.
By comparison, only 8,000 cases had been confirmed in the county at that time the testing was done.
Antibody studies in other countries have produced similar numbers, noted Dr. John Ioannidis, a professor of medicine at Stanford University and an author of the paper on Santa Clara County.
If the numbers prove accurate, he added, the virus may be much less deadly than originally expected, with a fatality rate more closely resembling that of a bad flu strain than a pandemic of profound lethality.
Neither report has been peer-reviewed or published in a scientific journal, and both pieces of research have met with criticism. Both relied on volunteers, which may have skewed the results, and the investigators say they are now probing their data to see how significant this bias may have been.
They maintain, though, that so-called participation bias would not alter the data enough to negate the overall conclusions.
A global pandemic of the novel coronavirus has now killed more than 174,000 people worldwide.
Over 2.5 million people across the globe have been diagnosed with COVID-19, the disease caused by the new respiratory virus, according to data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. The actual numbers are believed to be much higher due to testing shortages, many unreported cases and suspicions that some governments are hiding the scope of their nations' outbreaks.
Since the first cases were detected in China in December, the United States has become the worst-affected nation, with more than 804,000 diagnosed cases and at least 43,200 deaths.
Today's biggest developments:
Here's how the news is developing today. All times Eastern. Please refresh this page for updates
Officials in hard-hit Albany, Georgia, are concerned after Gov. Brian Kemp said Monday he's lifting someof the states restrictions on businesses, including hair and nail salons, starting this Friday.
Albany Mayor Bo Dorough said Tuesday that the lifting of restrictions should be gradual.
"Social distancing cannot be maintained in a barber shop, in a beauty shop or in a nail salon," Dorough said.
"The governor, in addition to receding the shelter in place order, essentially precluding your local officials from taking action to protect the citizens of this community," the mayor said. "A community where 15 funerals were held just last weekend."
"I pray that the number of Georgians who are infected and die will not increase significantly in the coming weeks as a result of the lifting of these restrictions," Dorough said.
Tune into ABC at 1 p.m. ET and ABC News Live at 4 p.m. ET every weekday for special coverage of the novel coronavirus with the full ABC News team, including the latest news, context and analysis.
With Massachusetts in the midst of a rise in coronavirus cases, Gov. Charlie Baker announced Tuesday that schools will stay closed through the end of the school year.
"We know that the lack of child care for many families has created an unanticipated burden and its hard to look after young children and balance the demands of working at home, but maintaining this structure is the best way to keep our kids and our providers safe from the spread of this insidious disease," he explained.
"There were a lot of mixed feelings in the education community on whether or not to go back. But we have got to do this right, and we have got to respect the virus," Baker added.
Massachusetts' death toll has climbed to 1,566. Over 39,000 people had been diagnosed as of Monday.
"The data shows we are still very much in the grip of the pandemic," Baker said.
The United Kingdom will begin trials of a vaccine developed at Oxford on Thursday, U.K. Health Secretary Matt Hancock said on Tuesday.
If it works it will be made available to the British people as soon as possible, he said.
The U.K.'s death toll has reached17,337, according to the Department of Health and Social Care.
A worker wearing protective equipment moves a stretcher at a temporary morgue set up at a mosque as the spread of the Coronavirus disease (Covid-19) continues, in Birmingham, Britain, April 21, 2020.
The U.K. has the fifth highest death toll, behind the U.S., Italy, Spain and France.
Over 129,000 people in the U.K. have been diagnosed with the coronavirus, including Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who was released from the hospital after receiving treatment.
A fourth TSA employee has died from COVID-19.
Victor Chung, a Miami International Airport supervisory TSA officer, worked for the agency for over 17 years. He died on Sunday, the TSA said.
"Victor was known to his colleagues as a compassionate leader, always willing to support officers in need, whether financially or by donating his leave to others who were in need," TSA officials said in a statement.
As of Tuesday morning, 459 TSA employees have tested positive for COVID-19, the agency said. Of those,110 have recovered and 4 have died.
Beginning April 27, Spain will ease somelockdown restrictions for children under the age of 14,Spanish government spokesperson Maria Jesus Montero said.
Children will be allowed to accompany a parent who is leaving the house for a specific, essential task.But it will be the responsibility of the adult to ensure that children follow social distancing guidelines and avoid playground and parks where close contact may not be avoided.
Toy houses stand on a deserted schoolyard during the lockdown amid the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in Ronda, Spain, April 20, 2020.
Spain's death toll has climbed to 21,282. Over 204,000 people have been diagnosed.
Spain's state of emergency, which was implemented on March 14, has been extended to May 9.
In New York state, 481 people succumbed to the coronavirus on Monday, including 29 people in nursing homes, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Tuesday.
An officer from the New York Police Department helps workers carry a body out of a house amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in the Brooklyn borough of New York City, April 20, 2020.
Cuomo, who banned elective procedures when the pandemic struck, announced Tuesday that he will now allow elective outpatient treatment in counties and hospitals without significant risk of a surge in the near future.
Cuomo said testing will be the focus of his conversation with President Donald Trump later on Tuesday at the White House. Cuomo said there isn't enough material for the test kits and he needs federal help.
New York City -- the U.S. epicenter of the pandemic --is "seeing definite progress" overall,Mayor Bill de Blasio said Tuesday.
A sign on a building across from NYU Langone Medical Center in Manhattan, says 'THANK YOU' to healthcare workers, during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in New York City, April 20, 2020.
On Sunday, 204 people were admitted to hospitals for suspected COVID-19 -- down from 212 on Saturday.
Additionally, 857 patients were in intensive care units on Sunday, only slightly up from 853 patients on Saturday.
Thirty-five percent of the people tested citywide were positive Sunday. On Saturday, 34% of those tested were positive.
"Let's keep with it," de Blasio said. "It'll take some time, but we can do it."
The #NewYorkTough installation by Tishman Speyer in partnership with New York State is on display at The Rink At Rockefeller Center during the coronavirus pandemic on April 20, 2020 in New York City.
De Blasio announced Tuesday that New York City is starting its own strategic reserve program to hold vital medical equipment and supplies for any future wave of the pandemic, without having to rely on the federal government. The reserve will include face shields, surgical gowns, test kits and bridge ventilators.
Once the social distancing restrictions have been lifted, the city will throw the "biggest and best" parade to honor and thank the "heroes" of the pandemic and mark "the beginning of our renaissance," the mayor said.
On Monday, de Blasio announced all parades and other nonessential permittedevents for June were canceled. Among the annual June events in New York is the LGBTQ Pride March, which would have been celebrating its the 50th anniversary this year.
No decision has been made on 4th of July celebrations in New York City.
Nashville Mayor John Cooper won'textend the current stay-at-home order past April 30, hetold ABC News anchor Amy Robach on Tuesday.
Lower Broadway is mostly deserted in downtown Nashville, Tenn., March 25, 2020, during the coronavirus outbreak.
Davidson County, which includes Nashville, has 1,936 confirmed cases as of Tuesday morning.
The mayor mandated a stay-at-home order early on in the pandemic, even before the state's governor issued one.
TennesseeGov. Bill Lee announced Monday that the "vast majority" of businesses in 89 of the state's 95 counties can reopen on May 1. The governor said his administration will work with the remaining six counties -- which includes Nashville -- "as they plan their own reopen strategies."
Cooper said he hopes that reopening the lively city will increase consumer confidence.
"Were excited to get restarted," he told ABC News. "We're with COVID for a long time. Were going to have to learn how to live with it ... lets get back to work."
To the protesters rallying around Nashville, Cooper said, "Its their right to protest and it's our right to keep people safe."
Protesters rally at the Tennessee state capitol to speak out against the state's handling of the COVID-19 outbreak, April 19, 2020, in Nashville, Tenn. Tennessee is under a stay-at-home order due to the coronavirus outbreak except for essential workers.
"I hope youre social distancing appropriately," he cautioned.
More than 50 journalists have contracted the novel coronavirus in Mumbai, India.
The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, the governing civic body of Mumbai, tested 171 journalists working in the field and reporting on the health crisis in the city, and at least 53 tested positive for COVID-19. Most of the infected journalists -- cameramen, photographers and reporters -- don't show any symptoms, according to the Mumbai Press Club.
All those who tested positive are now in quarantine and being looked after by local health authorities.
A doctor takes a swab sample during a COVID-19 testing drive inside the Dharavi slums amid a government-imposed nationwide lockdown as a preventive measure against the spread of the novel coronavirus, in Mumbai, India, on April 16, 2020.
The Mumbai Press Club has called on Maharashtra state's chief minister, Uddhav Thackeray, to take "immediate steps to safeguard our lives and profession."
"It must be pointed out that as Mumbai City locked down to face the challenge of the coronavirus, these field journalists even today continue to stand by their duty, filing their reports, taking photographs and recording videos in the most hazardous locations," the Mumbai Press Club wrote in an open letter Monday. "Most media houses have shut their offices and have not provided any protective gear, or special insurance to these frontline personnel. However, they continue to demand reports and visuals and expect the journalists to move around the city risking life and limb."
Indian Minister of Information and Broadcasting Prakash Javadekar said his ministry would issue an advisory to all media organizations to ensure precautions are being taken.
"It is shocking that more than 50 journalists of electronic media, particularly camera persons, have been found corona positive in Mumbai," Javadekar tweeted Monday. "Every journalist should take proper care."
There are nearly 19,000 diagnosed cases of COVID-19 in India, and at least 603 people there have died, according to a count kept by Johns Hopkins University. The bulk of the country's cases have been recorded in Maharashtra state, of which Mumbai is the capital.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Tuesday authorized the first diagnostic test with a home collection option for COVID-19.
The federal agency reissued the emergency-use authorization for LabCorp's molecular test to permit testing of samples collected by patients at home using a designated self-collection kit that contains nasal swabs and saline.
"Throughout this pandemic we have been facilitating test development to ensure patients access to accurate diagnostics, which includes supporting the development of reliable and accurate at-home sample collection options," FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn said in a statement Tuesday. "With this action, there is now a convenient and reliable option for patient sample collection from the comfort and safety of their home."
A health worker uses a nasal swab to test a man for COVID-19 in the Harlem neighborhood of New York City on April 20, 2020. While many laboratories and companies are now offering tests, there are still only two main types available. The nasal swab test tells you if you have an active viral infection right now. A separate blood test tells you if you were previously exposed to the virus and fought off the infection.
After a patient uses the self-collection kit to swab their own nose, they mail their sample in an insulated package to a LabCorp lab for testing. The North Carolina-based company intends to make its Pixel by LabCorp COVID-19 Test home collection kit available to consumers in most U.S. states -- with a doctor's order -- in the coming weeks, according to a press release from the FDA.
"The FDA's around-the-clock work since this outbreak began has resulted in the authorization of more than 50 diagnostic tests and engagement with over 350 test developers," Hahn said. "Specifically, for tests that include home sample collection, we worked with LabCorp to ensure the data demonstrated from at-home patient sample collection is as safe and accurate as sample collection at a doctor's office, hospital or other testing site."
Spain's iconic running of the bulls festival has been canceled this year due to the coronavirus pandemic.
The San Fermin festival takes place every year in the northern town of Pamplona between July 6 and 14. But the town's acting-mayor, Ana Elizalde, announced Tuesday that the event could not be held this year because of the health crisis.
In this file photo taken on July 9, 2019, participants run next to Jose Escolar Gil fighting bulls on the third bull run of the San Fermin festival in Pamplona, northern Spain. Spain's best-known bull running festival in the northern town of Pamplona, held annually between July 6 and 14, has ben cancelled this year due to the coronavirus pandemic, city hall announced on April 21, 2020.
Spain is one of the world's worst-affected countries in the ongoing pandemic, with more than 204,000 diagnosed cases of COVID-19 and over 21,000 deaths.
The worldwide number of people suffering acute hunger could almost double by the end of the year due to the crippling economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the United Nations' World Food Program warned Tuesday.
Unless swift action is taken, that figure stands to rise to 265 million in 2020, up from 135 million in 2019, according to a WFP projection, which was announced alongside the release of the Global Report on Food Crises.
People shop in the old city market of Yemen's capital, Sanaa, ahead of the holy Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, on April 18, 2020. From cancelled Iftar feasts to suspended mosque prayers, Muslims across the Middle East are bracing for a bleak month of Ramadan fasting as the threat of the coronavirus pandemic lingers.
"COVID-19 is potentially catastrophic for millions who are already hanging by a thread," WFP's senior economist, Arif Husain, said in a statement on Tuesday, "It is a hammer blow for millions more who can only eat if they earn a wage. Lockdowns and global economic recession have already decimated their nest eggs."
"It only takes one more shock -- like COVID-19 -- to push them over the edge," he added. "We must collectively act now to mitigate the impact of this global catastrophe."
Russia on Tuesday morning reported 5,642 new cases of the novel coronavirus, bringing the national tally to 52,763, according to the country's coronavirus response headquarters.
Another 51 people died from COVID-19 overnight, bringing Russia's death toll to 456.
Two police officers patrol an almost empty Red Square, with St. Basil's Cathedral (center) and Spasskaya Tower in Moscow, Russia, on April 20, 2020. Officials in Moscow and other regions have ordered most people except those working in essential sectors to stay home through April 30. Residents are only allowed to shop at nearby food stores and pharmacies, walk their dogs and remove trash.
Moscow still has the bulk of the country's infections, with 3,083 new cases registered in the city over the past 24 hours.
Authorities in Moscow and other areas have ordered most residents -- except those working in essential sectors -- to stay home through April 30. Residents are only allowed to leave their homes to shop at nearby grocery stores and pharmacies, walk their dogs and take out trash.
Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced Tuesday that the hard-hit country can start reopening on May 4, but he said a total loosening of the lockdown measures "would be irresponsible."
In a Facebook post, Conte explained that Italy was preparing to move into "phase two" of its response plan, the details of which will be announced by the end of next week. Officials will also take into account the situation in each region.
"It is too easy to say, 'let's open everything,'" Conte said.
Dr. Marco (right) and nurse Manu, wearing protective gear, react at the end of their shift in a corridor of the level intensive care unit, treating COVID-19 patients, at the San Filippo Neri hospital in Rome, Italy, on April 20, 2020. Italy on April 20 reported its first drop in the number of people currently suffering from the novel coronavirus since it recorded its first infection in February.
Italy is one of the world's worst-affected countries in the coronavirus pandemic, with more than 181,000 diagnosed cases of COVID-19 and over 24,000 deaths, according to a count kept by Johns Hopkins University. The country became the first in Europe to impose a coronavirus-related nationwide lockdown, which has been in place since March 10.
On Monday, Italy recorded its first drop in the number of people currently sick with the virus since the country reported its first case in February.
Germany's iconic Oktoberfest, the world's largest beer festival, has been canceled this year due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Every year, around 6 million people flock to the festival grounds in Munich, the capital of southern Germany's Bavaria state. This year, the annual festival was slated to run from Sept. 19 to Oct. 4.
After meeting with Munich's mayor on Tuesday, Bavaria's Minister-President Markus Soder said they agreed the risk is "too high" to let Oktoberfest 2020 take place since "you can neither keep your distance nor work with facial protection" at the festival.
This combination of pictures shows a festival tent of the Oktoberfest beer festival in Munich, southern Germany, on Oct. 3, 2019 (top) and on Sept. 16, 2016 (bottom, as preparations are under way for the festival's opening). Oktoberfest will be cancelled in the year 2020 as "risks are too high" from the coronavirus pandemic, Bavarian state premier Markus Soeder announced on April 21, 2020.
"We are living in different times," Soder told a press conference.
Munich Mayor Dieter Reiter added, "It is an emotionally difficult moment and of course it is also an economically difficult moment for our city."
Germany, which has more than 147,000 diagnosed cases of COVID-19, lifted some social distancing measures on Monday, but major events with large audiences remain banned until at least the end of August.
As many countries seek to lift lockdowns and other social distancing measures put in place to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus, the World Health Organization warned on Tuesday that easing restrictions too soon would likely lead to a resurgence of infections.
"This is not the time to be lax," Dr. Takeshi Kasai, the WHO regional director for the Western Pacific, said during an online press conference. "Instead, we need to ready ourselves for a new way of living for the foreseeable future."
The Food and Drug Administration on Tuesday said it had granted emergency approval to the first in-home test for the coronavirus, a nasal swab kit that will be sold by LabCorp.
The agency said that LabCorp had submitted data showing the home test is as safe and accurate as a sample collection at a doctors office, hospital or other testing site.
With this action, there is now a convenient and reliable option for patient sample collection from the comfort and safety of their home, Dr. Stephen M. Hahn, the F.D.A. commissioner, said in a statement.
Patients will swab their own nose using a testing kit sent by the company, and will mail it in an insulated package back to the company. The test, called the Pixel, will be available to consumers in most states, with a doctors order, the agency said.
LabCorp said that it would first make the tests available to health care workers and emergency workers who may have been exposed to Covid-19 or be symptomatic, and that it would be making the self-collection kits available to consumers in the coming weeks. The company also noted that because the tests are done by consumers in their own home, it would cut down on the demand for masks and other protective equipment that is usually needed to collect testing specimens.
The company said the test will cost $119. Consumers will have to pay out of pocket for the test, a company spokesman said, and see if their insurer will reimburse them.
As the virus spread in the United States, several companies rushed unauthorized home kits to the market, even though the F.D.A. had said it had not evaluated whether they worked properly.
Many of those companies then suspended their marketing of the kits. But one company, Vault, which normally sells testosterone to men, began advertising a Covid-19 kit using saliva on April 14. The F.D.A. has not approved that company to sell a testing kit, and a notice on Vaults website said the tests are currently unavailable until at least Wednesday.
At least 28,000 more people have died during the coronavirus pandemic over the last month than the official Covid-19 death counts report, a review of mortality data in 11 countries shows providing a clearer, if still incomplete, picture of the toll of the crisis.
In the last month, far more people died in these countries than in previous years, The New York Times found. The totals include deaths from Covid-19 as well as those from other causes, likely including people who could not be treated as hospitals became overwhelmed.
Note: Excess deaths are estimates that include deaths from Covid-19 and other causes. Reported Covid-19 deaths reflect official coronavirus deaths during the period when mortality data is available. In England and Wales, the Covid-19 deaths reflect the revised death figures from the Office of National Statistics. Istanbul reported deaths include those for all of Turkey, as city-level data has not been made public.
These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number is now four times the normal amount.
Of course, mortality data in the middle of a pandemic is not perfect. The disparities between the official death counts and the total rise in deaths most likely reflect limited testing for the virus, rather than intentional undercounting. Officially, about 165,000 people have died worldwide of the coronavirus as of Tuesday.
But the total death numbers offer a more complete portrait of the pandemic, experts say, especially because most countries report only those Covid-19 deaths that occur in hospitals.
Whatever number is reported on a given day is going to be a gross underestimate, said Tim Riffe, a demographer at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany. In a lot of places the pandemic has been going on for long enough that there has been sufficient time for late death registrations to come in, giving us a more accurate picture of what the mortality really was.
The differences are particularly stark in countries that have been slow to acknowledge the scope of the problem. Istanbul, for example, recorded about 2,100 more deaths than expected from March 9 through April 12 roughly double the number of coronavirus deaths the government reported for the entire country in that period.
Source: Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality. | Note: Data for the first weeks are excluded, as they may represent partial weeks.
The increase in deaths in mid-March suggests that many people who died had been infected in February, weeks before Turkey officially acknowledged its first case.
In March, the Indonesian government attributed 84 deaths to the coronavirus in Jakarta. But over 1,000 people more than normal were buried in Jakarta cemeteries that month, according to data from the citys Department of Parks and Cemeteries. (The data was first reported by Reuters).
2010-2019
monthly average
2010-2019
monthly average
2010-2019
monthly average
Source: Jakarta Department of Parks and Cemeteries.
We estimated the excess mortality for each country by comparing the number of people who died from all causes this year with the historical average during the same period. The Economist is also tracking these deaths, known as excess deaths, in this way.
In many European countries, recent data show 20 to 30 percent more people have been dying than normal. That translates to tens of thousands of more deaths.
19,700+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
16,700+ excess deaths from Mar. 7 to Apr. 10
13,100+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
19,700+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
16,700+ excess deaths from Mar. 7 to Apr. 10
13,100+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
19,700+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
16,700+ excess deaths from Mar. 7 to Apr. 10
13,100+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
19,700+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
16,700+ excess deaths from Mar. 7 to Apr. 10
13,100+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
Notes: Data from weeks 1, 52 and 53 are excluded, as they may represent partial weeks.
In some countries, the authorities are trying to clarify how many excess deaths should be attributed to Covid-19, either by including deaths outside hospitals in their daily totals or by retroactively adjusting death tolls once death certificates are processed.
In France, officials began including Covid-19 deaths outside hospitals in early April. And Britains Office for National Statistics has started to release mortality data that reflects when Covid-19 is mentioned on a death certificate, providing a more accurate albeit delayed account of the pandemic than the figures released each day by Public Health England.
Deviations from normal patterns of deaths have been confirmed in many European countries, according to data released by the European Mortality Monitoring Project, a research group that collects weekly mortality data from 24 European countries.
4,000+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
2,300+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
1,100+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 12
1,000+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
4,000+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
1,100+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 12
2,300+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
1,000+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
4,000+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
1,100+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 12
2,300+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
1,000+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
4,000+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
1,100+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 12
2,300+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
1,000+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
Notes: Data from weeks 1, 52 and 53 are excluded as they are incomplete in certain years.
It is unusual for mortality data to be released so quickly, demographers say, but many countries are working to provide more comprehensive and timely information because of the urgency of the coronavirus outbreak. The data is limited and, if anything, excess deaths are underestimated because not all deaths have been reported.
At this stage, its a partial snapshot, said Patrick Gerland, a demographer at the United Nations. Its one view of the problem that reflects that most acute side of the situation, primarily through the hospital-based system.
That is likely to change.
In the next couple of months, Mr. Gerland said, a much clearer picture will be possible.
Age breakdowns in mortality data could provide an even clearer picture of the role of Covid-19 in excess deaths. In Sweden, for example, a high mortality rate among men age 80 and older accounted for the largest increase in deaths, suggesting that the overall numbers understate the severity of the outbreak for older people in particular.
Even taking into account the new numbers, experts say the death toll to date could have been much worse.
Todays rise in all-cause mortality takes place under conditions of extraordinary measures, such as social distancing, lockdowns, closed borders and increased medical care, at least some which have positive impacts, said Vladimir Shkolnikov, a demographer at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. It is likely that without these measures, the current death toll would be even higher.
Gage Skidmore/Flickr; Stephen Melkisethian/Flickr; Caroline Amenabar/NPR
Gage Skidmore/Flickr; Stephen Melkisethian/Flickr; Caroline Amenabar/NPR
Updated at 11:15 a.m.
With near-daily task force briefings, President Trump has delivered an ever-evolving message to the American public about the coronavirus pandemic.
The constant is the inconsistency. At times he has been in sync with the public health experts advising him on the response and with actions initiated by his administration. But often he has undercut or even contradicted his experts or White House policy.
Trump has gone from downplaying the risk early on, to overselling the availability of test kits, to encouraging strict social distancing measures, to questioning whether those measures were causing too much economic and emotional pain. He has claimed "total" authority and then insisted it's really up to the states to manage the response.
As the message from public health experts became increasingly dire, Trump often accentuated the positive, saying he was trying to give Americans hope.
Although Trump's partial ban on travelers from China is seen by many as having bought time for the U.S. to prepare, coronavirus testing failures obscured the severity of the outbreak here and hampered efforts to contain its spread. By the time the deadly scope of the virus came into focus, it was too late for containment, and mitigation shutdowns brought a heavy economic toll.
Below, we compare Trump's remarks and actions to those of his administration:
A sign about being 6 feet apart is posted along the main road through Bolinas, Calif. Residents are undergoing testing as part of a coronavirus study. Haven Daley/AP hide caption
A sign about being 6 feet apart is posted along the main road through Bolinas, Calif. Residents are undergoing testing as part of a coronavirus study.
A small town in northern California will become the first in the nation to try to test everyone for the Coronavirus, regardless of symptoms, in an effort to better understand how the virus spreads and how antibodies against the disease are built.
Researchers at the University of California, San Francisco who are running the project in unincorporated Bolinas, home to some 1,600 people, started Monday.
"We don't have enough data to tell people how to lift those (stay at home) measures safely," Dr. Aenor Sawyer with UCSF tells NPR. "What we need to understand is how does the virus spread through communities so that we know how to open up people's lives again. How do we contain this virus and how do we safely move forward and try to move past it?"
The pop-up, drive-through testing center is up and running at a local park. It will do what's called PCR tests to determine if a resident currently has the virus as well as antibody tests to see if a person has been infected and has developed antibodies against the virus.
More antibody testing is vital, Dr. Sawyer says, to better understand how and in what ways infection builds immunity.
"We will see people who have antibodies, people who don't. But what isn't clear right now is does that mean they have immunity? We don't know that," Dr. Sawyer says. "And if it does eventually seem like they have immunity, we don't know how long the window for that immunity is."
Researchers hope Bolinas serves as an ideal ecosystem socially and demographically to study. It's rural but before the shelter-in-place order, it always had a steady stream of recreational visitors and tourists from outside. The community also has a large number of older adults.
"The median age here is 62. So we have a lot of high-risk people," says Dr. Sawyer, a longtime resident of Bolinas. "And we have a significant (number) that are under the poverty level. We have social economic disadvantage and we have some minorities."
Starting this weekend, UCSF researchers will launch a companion testing program in San Francisco's Mission District, an economically and ethnically diverse neighborhood. That will allow them to carefully compare urban and rural test data.
Residents of the unincorporated community raised the money, some $300,000, via a GoFundMe campaign to buy the testing materials and tents needed to set up the site.
The researchers hope the data is useful to public health officials making tough decisions about when and how to reopen society. But they also hope the testing might serve as a template for other communities.
As Dr. Sawyer puts it, "The epidemiological data will be helpful in policy decision-making for their communities. But what's really important is, could they get their own community tested? Because we need to be able to do more community-wide testing to safely advance through this pandemic."
Which one, Mr. Walsh asked on Monday, The tank driver, or the one with the Mossad?
There was also the Puerto Rican Jewish karaoke jockey who strode along the bar, promising that she, like Gloria Gaynor, would survive, and getting you to buy in and pump your fist.
The surgeon pulling in millions a year at the hospital down the block, NewYork-Presbyterian/Columbia, sat one stool over from a school custodian making a fraction of that. Thursday nights, hospital paydays, were a whirl.
Besides medical workers, Coogans served world-renowned runners from the Armory Track and Field arena, off-duty cops and teachers blowing off steam.
A couple of years ago, Lin-Manuel Miranda, the creator of Hamilton, joined Mr. Walsh to serenade a woman celebrating her birthday; as a boy growing up, Mr. Miranda had his own birthdays there. So did my kids. We had baptism parties at Coogans and an 85th birthday, held a Ph.D. bash in the back room and wolfed down a meal between the afternoon and evening sessions at a funeral parlor.
The owners could spot people who had just come from a rough visit to a sick relative in the hospital and knew to give them the right dose of warmth or quiet. Or they shouted a merry greeting to the older woman who arrived every evening for her one highball and a dinner that was technically solitary, but not really, with Mr. Hunt or Mr. Walsh or Ms. McDade invariably pulling over a chair for a chat.
Herman D. Farrell, when he was chairman of the Manhattan Democratic Party, would interview people for judgeships at a table in the front room, where everyone could, and did, see what he was up to, and with whom.
During the crack wars, Coogans was a sanctuary. A peace treaty was negotiated at one of its tables during the Washington Heights riots of 1992. In defiance of crime, Mr. Walsh organized a Salsa, Shamrocks and Blues five-kilometer run through the streets on the first Sunday in March.
Dr. Lowell has struggled to obtain treatment for his own wife. Shortly before the virus hit New York, she had back surgery and then developed a complication called a seroma, which flooded her abdomen with several liters of fluid. The specialist who could drain the fluid did not want to bring her in, afraid of exposing her to the virus. Finally, it was scheduled for April 21. She has waited more than a month.
Any other time, this would have been done the same day, he said.
Some of his patients have had far more serious problems, he said.
One called him, saying she felt depressed and weak, and couldnt eat.
They were communicating via telemedicine, which Dr. Lowell like many other doctors in the New York region has been using to avoid in-person visits that could spread the virus.
In the past, her tests suggested that she was prone to a blood cancer, multiple myeloma. Listening to her, seeing her on his screen and knowing her history, Dr. Lowell suspected a serious illness, possibly the cancer. He told her that, and urged her to go to the hospital. The patient, who was 60, declined, fearing she would contract the coronavirus.
Five or six days passed, and her husband called, saying she felt even worse. Again, Dr. Lowell implored them to go to the hospital. Again, she refused.
A few hours later, she died.
I have no idea why, Dr. Lowell said.
Some of his other patients with serious illnesses have also refused to go to the hospital, for the same reason. One who wanted to go, and whose family called 911, was urged by paramedics to stay home because the hospital was overwhelmed by coronavirus cases. He did stay home, and died a few days later.
Many colleagues share similar stories.
Im a primary care doctor, Dr. Lowell said. Im totally hogtied trying to take care of people. Its sad. It brings tears. Were all on the front line.
Jan Hoffman contributed reporting.
When President Trump told governors that they needed to step up their efforts to secure medical supplies, Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland took the entreaty seriously and negotiated with suppliers in South Korea to obtain coronavirus test kits.
The No. 1 problem facing us is lack of testing, said Mr. Hogan, a Republican, who has been among the many critics of the Trump administrations repeated claims that states have adequate testing provided by the federal government. We cant open up our states without ramping up testing.
In recent days, his wife, Yumi Hogan, a Korean immigrant who speaks fluent Korean, had been on the phone in the middle of the night helping to secure the final deal with two labs to sell Maryland the tests.
Luckily we had a very strong relationship with Korea, Mr. Hogan said. But it should not have been this difficult.
On Saturday, a Korean Air flight arrived at Baltimore-Washington International Airport carrying 5,000 test kits, which officials said would give the state the ability to make 500,000 new tests. The Food and Drug Administration and other agencies gave their seal of approval for the kits as the plane was landing.
I was frosted because my team was saying that the F.D.A. approval was going to hold it up, Mr. Hogan said in a telephone interview. I didnt care and was going to get the tests anyway.
So far, Maryland has conducted 71,577 tests for the virus, and nearly 14,000 infections have been recorded, a number that continues to rise. More than 500 people have died in the state.
A number of South Korean vendors were considered for the new test kits, and ultimately the state went with LabGenomics.
Mr. Hogan, Ms. Hogan and a group of state officials greeted the flight to receive the kits on Saturday. The new tests, once they have passed muster in two local labs, will be distributed to the testing centers the state has set up in sporting fields, repurposed vehicle emissions testing centers and other locations.
We want to get to the point where we can test as many people as possible, Mr. Hogan said, noting that the state, like most others, has been limited to testing only the very sick and emergency and health care workers.
Expanded testing capacity will go to high-priority areas, such as nursing and group homes, expanded drive-through sites, primary care practices and urgent care centers.
Other states, desperate for things like personal protective equipment and other medical gears, have moved to acquire it, often stealthily, from other nations.
On NBCs Meet the Press on Sunday, Vice President Mike Pence said there was a sufficient capacity of testing across the country today for any state in America to help the nation emerge from the coronavirus shutdown, something that Mr. Hogan and other governors from both parties disputed.
Residents of a suburban New York City county that was one of the earliest US hotspots for the coronavirus sued the World Health Organization on Monday, accusing it of gross negligence in covering up and responding to the Covid-19 pandemic.
In a proposed class action, three residents of Westchester county accused the WHO of failing to declare a pandemic in a timely fashion, monitor Chinas response to the original outbreak, provide treatment guidelines, advise members on how to respond including through travel restrictions, and coordinate a global response.
They also accused the WHO of conspiring with Chinas government, which was not named as a defendant, to cover up Covid-19s severity.
The WHO did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The lawsuit by Richard Kling and Steve Rotker, both of New Rochelle, and Gennaro Purchia, of Scarsdale, was filed in the federal court in White Plains, New York.
It seeks unspecified damages for what they called WHOs incalculable harm to the roughly 756,000 adult residents in Westchester county who would make up the class.
Westchester is north of New York City, and last year had about 967,506 people, of whom roughly 78% were adults, according to the US Census Bureau.
Lawyers for the plaintiffs did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
New Rochelle became a hotspot after a lawyer who attended the Young Israel of New Rochelle synagogue was diagnosed with Covid-19 on 2 March, the first person in the community to test positive.
Through 18 April, a total of 242,786 people in New York had tested positive for the coronavirus, including 23,803 in Westchester, according to the states health department.
The number of total hospitalizations for Covid-19 and the daily death toll have fallen in recent days, Andrew Cuomo, the New York governor, said on Monday.
The case is Kling et al v World Health Organization, US district court, southern district of New York, No 20-03124.
