The U.S. is home to the worlds biggest and best-known pharmaceutical companies. But China is giving the U.S. a run for its money in the race to develop a vaccine for Covid-19a feat that would instantly change the dynamics of the fight against the deadly virus, and the geopolitical competition between the U.S. and China.
Beijings government, including its military and several state-backed firms, has committed hundreds of millions of dollars and cleared regulatory barriers to accelerate research and development. Even before...
Katherine Milkman, Angela Duckworth, and Mitesh Patel, Opinion contributors Published 5:01 a.m. ET June 5, 2020 | Updated 6:40 a.m. ET June 5, 2020
Pressure to create a coronavirus vaccine is increasing by the day, but for a safe vaccine to enter the market, it takes time. USA TODAY
We've learned how to increase the chances adults will be vaccinated for the common flu. We need to put those methods into practice for coronavirus.
If a vaccine for the coronavirus became available, would you get it? A recent poll found that only 49% of Americans said yes.
While this may seem surprising, given how drastically COVID-19 has upended most of our lives, history suggests it shouldnt be. Consider the flu vaccine. Nearly every drug store in the country makes getting a flu shot quick, cheap, and easy to do. And yet, since the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention first recommended we all get an annual flu vaccination, the percentage of American adults who have followed suit has never exceeded 45.3%.
Why is it so critical that we do better with the COVID-19 vaccine? This novel coronavirus spreads much more quickly than the flu, is far more deadly, and will likely continue to propagate rapidly until we achieve herd immunity when so many of us have antibodies against COVID-19 that a new case has a low probability of infecting others. The many experts saythat between 60% and 80% of Americans must develop antibodies to the novel coronavirus to achieve this tipping point.
With this in mind, enormous attention and funding have been focused on developing and mass-producing a vaccine. But a critical step has been largely overlooked: making sure most of the population actually gets vaccinated.
(Photo: Getty Images)
As scientists working at the intersection of behavior change and public health, we know this story all too well. Billions of dollars are invested in miraculous new medical therapies and treatments, but wide-scale adoption is never achieved or, at best, takes years.So what can we do differently now?
Just asmassive collaborative efforts are being mounted to develop a vaccine, we must rapidly test different approaches to increase vaccination uptake, recognizing why its likely to be difficult. Americans generally worry about vaccine safety, underestimate their risk of infection, and often fail to follow-through on their best intentions.
Reopening without a vaccine:Coronavirus vaccine not the end-all-be-all. We must have a plan for reopening without one.
The good news is we dont have to start from scratch. We already have scientifically-tested ways to encourage people to make healthier decisions. For instance, prompting people to jot down the date and time when theyll get a flu shot makes it more likely theyll actually get vaccinated. We know that defaulting people into vaccination appointments is also effective.We know that simply reminding Americans to get vaccinated can change their behavior,and thatincentivizingpeople to get a vaccine also works.
But there are many more approaches to encouraging vaccination that havent been tested. Lets use the upcoming flu season to figure out how we can do better.
Pharmacies, health insurers, and health systems have an opportunity to collaborate with behavioral scientists on massive research efforts to learn what works. We should be testing everything from cash rewards to psychologically wise reminders delivered by text, email, snail mail, and phone. And we should be running these studies at an unprecedented scale given the hundreds of thousands of lives and trillions of dollars we stand to lose if the pandemic isnt stopped as quickly as possible.
In the war to establish herd immunity, developing a vaccine is only half the battle. We also need behavior change techniques to encourage an unprecedented number of Americans to choose vaccination when the time comes.
Katherine Milkman is a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania with a secondary appointment at the Perelman School of Medicine and is the co-director of the Behavior Change for Good Initiative.Angela Duckworth, a professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania, is the co-director of the Behavior Change for Good Initiative. Mitesh S. Patelis a professor at the Perelman School of Medicine with a secondary appointment at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, a staff physician at the Cpl. Michael J. Crescenz Veterans Affairs Medical Center in Philadelphia, and director of the Penn Medicine Nudge Unit.
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COVID-19 vaccine not coming anytime soon: Health professor from Italy | Photo Credit: iStock Images
New Delhi: It is not possible to develop a vaccine for Covid-19 soon, as the RNA virus changes very quickly and this makes it difficult to create a good vaccine, says Claudio Colosio Unimi Professor, Department of Health Sciences University of Milan, Italy.
Claudio as the Director, Occupational Health Unit of the Hospitals Saints Paolo and Carlo of Milano, has been extensively handling the Covid-19 pandemic. When queried about a vaccine still not appearing on the horizon, Claudio said there is no vaccine for HIV infection yet (and people still survive).
And is there a possibility to develop a vaccine for Covid-19, and how soon is it possible?
Claudio replied "Not very soon. RNA viruses change very quickly and this makes it difficult to create a good vaccine."
Elaborating on the Italian experience of Covid-19, -- a possibility the population has developed herd immunity after experiencing the viral infection attack for close to 6 months -- Claudio said "No. Today the rate of immunization is in the order, depending on the areas, of 2-15 per cent. Very far from herd immunity."
Italy was worst hit by coronavirus, currently the number of cases have reduced drastically from 5,000 to less than 300 cases a day.
Comparatively, India is just where Italy was months back. More than 9,000 cases were reported on Thursday. It also posted over 5,000 for over two weeks, before crossing 6,000, then 7,000 and 8,000 in rapid succession.
On suggestions for India from his experience in Italy, Claudio said: "Doing the big sacrifice of locking down if possible.
"Otherwise mandatory mask: surgical mask is ok for most situations. However, I understand how difficult this is in India.
"Finally, social distancing. Otherwise it would be very difficult to stop the chain of infection. You should be satisfied when the number of subjects infected by a single coronavirus subject will be under 1."
Citing the Covid-19 study at the University of Milan, Claudio said: "We are studying the trends of infection among healthcare workers and whether the approaches are adequate to avoid the spreading of the disease ("contact tracing")."
Queried on the increasing levels of pollution, especially in Indian context which has many polluted cities, aiding the spread of coronavirus, Claudio said "There is not any evidence of this. Just only a hypothesis. I don't trust it."
When asked, if the current trend of number cases would lead India in the US, UK direction, where the viral infection ran havoc claiming thousands of lives, Claudio said "This is something we cannot anticipate from here. For sure the risk is highest in the most populated regions, and in any place where social distancing is difficult. And India suffers both these risk determinants!"
Responding to a query on Italy's efforts in bringing down deaths due to Covid-19, (according to WHO since May 25 Italy has reported less than 100 deaths a day), Claudio said "With social distancing and removing these people (vulnerable group) from the more risky jobs, for example some departments in the hospitals for health care workers.
"A good solution requires smart job done."
What is novel Coronavirus 2019?
Novel Coronavirus 2019, or COVID-19, is a new respiratory virus that was first identified in Wuhan, China.
Can the Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) be transmitted through the air?
Studies to date suggest that COVID-19 is mainly transmitted through contact with respiratory droplets rather than through the air.
Who should be tested for COVID-19?
Anyone who has travelled abroad recently and then develops respiratory symptoms like fever, cough, or breathing difficulty, will be advised to visit their nearest primary health care center for medical assessment and diagnosis.
How long does the virus survive on surfaces?
It is not certain how long COVID-19 can survive on surfaces, but it seems to behave like other coronaviruses. Studies (including preliminary information on the COVID-19 virus) suggest that coronaviruses may persist on surfaces for a few hours or up to several days. This may vary under different conditions (such as the type of surface, and the temperature or humidity of the environment). If you think that a surface may be infected, clean it with simple disinfectant to kill the virus and protect yourself and others. Clean your hands with an alcohol-based hand rub or wash them with soap and water. Avoid touching your eyes, mouth or nose.
Why is the world worried about COVID-19?
Although illness from a COVID-19 infection is generally mild, especially for children and young adults, it can be serious in certain cases. Latest estimates show that about 1 in every 5 people who catch it need hospital care. The worlds reaction stems from our understandable concern of how the outbreak can affect us and our loved ones, and from a sense of responsibility to protect our community.(World Health Organization - https://bit.ly/39P00M2)
What is quarantine?
Quarantines restricts the activities of healthy people for a period of time as determined by competent medical authorities.
What is the source of Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19)?
The source of Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) has not yet been identified. Early on in the outbreak, many of the patients in Wuhan, China, reportedly had some link to a large seafood and animal market, suggesting the likelihood that the virus emerged from an animal source. Analysis of the genetics of this virus is ongoing, to ascertain the exact source of the virus.
How does the Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) spread?
People can catch COVID-19 from others who have the virus. The disease can spread from person to person through small droplets from the nose or mouth which are dispersed when a person with COVID-19 coughs, sneezes or exhales. These droplets land on objects and surfaces around the person. Other people then catch COVID-19 by touching these objects or surfaces, and then touching their eyes, nose or mouth. People can also catch COVID-19 if they breathe in droplets from a person with COVID-19 who coughs or exhales.
How can I protect myself from contracting the disease?
The best way to prevent infection is to follow the preventive guidelines and precautions, which currently include staying at home and maintaining a social distance of at least one to two meters between you and people who are not members of your household. - Additional recommended preventive actions against this respiratory virus include the following: - Wash your hands regularly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, or use an alcohol-based hand rub. - Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth before washing your hands. - Avoid contact with sick people who show respiratory symptoms. - Make sure that you, and the people around you, follow good respiratory hygiene. This means covering your mouth and nose with a tissue or your bent elbow when you cough or sneeze. Dispose of the used tissue immediately.
What are the treatments for COVID-19?
There is currently no specific antiviral treatment recommended for COVID-19 infection. People infected with COVID-19 should receive supportive care to help relieve symptoms.
Is COVID-19 the same as the MERS-CoV or SARS viruses?
No. Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses. Some cause illness in people, while others circulate among animals, including camels, cats and bats. The recently emerged COVID-19 is not the same as the coronavirus that causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) or the coronavirus that causes Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which first emerged in 2003. There are ongoing investigations to learn more.
I have symptoms. What should I do?
If you have mild symptoms and no history of travel in the last 14 days, we advise you to stay home and treat your symptoms as you would an ordinary cold or flu. If you returned from abroad within the last 14 days and are now experiencing symptoms, you should visit your nearest primary health care center for a medical assessment. You are strongly urged to call one of the 24-hour help line numbers first, for instruction. You can also make use the Virtual Doctor, available online in MOHAP website, who can assess and advise you further.
Is it safe to receive a package from any area where COVID-19 has been reported?
Yes. There is no scientific evidence that the virus can be transmitted through a package.
How do we know that people who have had the Coronavirus are no longer infectious?
People with confirmed coronavirus infection have to stay in isolation under the care of medical specialists until they are cured and are no longer experiencing symptoms of the coronavirus infection. The specialist care team also assesses and confirms that they are no longer infectious.
What is isolation?
Isolation is the separation of those who are infected, or those suspected of being infected, from those who are healthy, and it lasts for the duration of the disease infect
Who is at risk of the COVID-19?
People of all ages can be infected by the virus, however, current research shows that elderly people and patients with chronic diseases are more vulnerable to becoming severely ill if they are infected with the virus.
Source: Ministry of Health and Prevention
The studies, published in renowned scientific journals, produced astounding results and altered the course of research into the coronavirus pandemic.
One undercut President Trumps claim that certain antimalarial drugs cure Covid-19, the illness caused by the virus, concluding that the medications in fact were dangerous to patients. The other found that some blood pressure drugs did not increase the risk of Covid-19 and might even be protective.
Both studies were led by a professor at Harvard, and both depended on a huge international database of patient medical records that few experts had ever heard of.
But on Thursday, the studies were retracted by the scientific journals in which they had appeared, The New England Journal of Medicine and The Lancet, because the authors could not verify the data on which the results depended.
The retractions may breathe new life into the antimalarial drugs hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, relentlessly promoted by Mr. Trump as a remedy for Covid-19 despite a lack of evidence. On Wednesday, after the journals noted concerns about the studies, the World Health Organization announced that it would resume trials of the medications.
But the retractions also raise troubling questions about the state of scientific research as the pandemic spreads. Thousands of papers are being rushed to online sites and journals with little or no peer review, and critics fear long-held standards of even the most discerning journals are eroding as they face pressure to rapidly vet and disseminate new scientific reports.
It is now clear to me that in my hope to contribute to this research during a time of great need, I did not do enough to ensure that the data source was appropriate for this use, Dr. Mandeep Mehra, lead author of the two studies, said in a statement to The New York Times.
For that, and for all the disruptions both directly and indirectly I am truly sorry.
The paper about chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine appeared in late May in The Lancet. Though there had been other hints of side effects associated with the drugs, clinical trials were halted worldwide while alarmed investigators began safety reviews.
But questions arose almost immediately about irregularities in the data and the provenance of the data set used in the analysis as well as in Dr. Mehras earlier heart study, which had appeared in The New England Journal of Medicine.
The data came from a company called Surgisphere, which claims to have granular patient-level information shared by 1,200 hospitals and health facilities on six continents. The founder and chief executive, Dr. Sapan Desai, was listed as an author on both papers.
Dr. Mehra, who is the medical director of the Brigham and Womens Hospital Heart and Vascular Center in Boston and has authored hundreds of publications, said in a statement that he became involved in the project because he felt a need to contribute to science during the pandemic.
Dr. Mehra said he was introduced to Dr. Desai through one of the co-authors, whom he did not identify, and was told about the existence of a mammoth private database of patient medical records compiled by Surgisphere. Dr. Mehra said he hoped the data could be used in rapid studies that improved outcomes of patients with Covid-19.
Dr. Desai furnished the statistics used in both the heart and hydroxychloroquine studies. Critics were quick to point out anomalies in both pieces of research, including implausible findings that should have been detected during the peer review process like the registrys apparent inclusion of a large number of Covid-19 cases very early on in the pandemic, even in Africa, where few hospitals have electronic health records.
Many researchers were astonished to find out that such a database could exist, or that the gathering and analysis of tens of thousands of medical records on multiple continents could have been carried out so quickly.
In an interview earlier this week, Dr. Desai vigorously defended the Surgisphere database, saying that he was all for transparency but was bound to secrecy by contractual agreements with the hundreds of hospitals that are his clients, and therefore could not show anyone the raw data from his registry.
We did this because there was an opportunity to help, Dr. Desai said. Were not making any money from this, were doing it at our own expense. This is why I went into medicine.
Dr. Desai declined a request from The Times to be put in contact with a hospital or health care facility that provided its data to Surgisphere. He did not respond to inquiries after the retractions.
The controversy has brought close scrutiny to a small, little-known company, which Dr. Desai says has fewer than a dozen employees yet has amassed an enormous private registry containing detailed medical information from patients around the globe.
Dr. Desai has used the Surgisphere name in various ventures over the years, but until February, he worked as a vascular surgeon at Northwest Community Hospital in Arlington Heights, Ill.
He left the job because his wife was having a baby, and because business at Surgisphere was picking up, a spokeswoman said.
Updated June 5, 2020
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nations job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid, says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. When you havent been exercising, you lose muscle mass. Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you arent being told to stay at home, its still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus whether its surface transmission or close human contact is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people dont need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks dont replace hand washing and social distancing.
If youve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
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On its website, Surgisphere lists its office as the 31st floor of the iconic John Hancock building on Michigan Avenue in downtown Chicago a co-working space that Dr. Desai confirmed is the companys corporate office.
It is possible for a company to build an enormous database of patient medical records, said Dr. Harlan Krumholz, a cardiologist and health care researcher at Yale University and Yale New Haven Hospital.
The ubiquity of big data can be tempting for researchers, he added, but they still must understand where the data came from, its authenticity and its quality.
It is not implausible that a large database could accrue records from a large number of hospitals without their knowing, he said indeed, it is frequent. Hospital systems contract with vendors who then pass records along to other companies, including those compiling big data for health care marketing and research.
Nonetheless, Dr. Krumholz said, a database like the one promoted by Surgisphere should have raised some eyebrows.
If this database is this good, why havent we been using it? he said.
Restaurants are opening, parks are full and people are getting back to work: parts of Europe, Asia and much of the Middle East are enjoying the benefits of flattened coronavirus curves. Meanwhile, parts of the US, India and Latin America are still recording thousands of new cases every day.
The first wave of the coronavirus is not over. The future shape of the pandemic will be decided both by human action, in the form of social distancing, testing and other traditional methods of disease control, but also several unanswered questions about the nature of the virus itself.
Experts say there are several possibilities.
One is that the virus breaks out and is suppressed in peaks and troughs, until enough of the population is vaccinated or potentially develops immunity.
Antibody tests in most places indicate that quarantine measures were very effective in slowing down the virus. Fewer than 10% of populations in France, Spain and Sweden have developed the antibodies that would be evidence of having caught the virus and, in theory, becoming immune, for at least a short time.
But that also means the vast majority of populations remain susceptible.
If societies reopen before the virus is sufficiently eradicated, it may be that this first wave does not completely go away, says Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Columbia University.
In the US, we are lifting lockdowns when there are still increasing numbers of cases in a bunch of states We may just have peaks and valleys of transmission occurring over and over again as peoples behaviour changes, she says.
The scale of these peaks could be reduced by making changes such as wearing masks, using public transport in a staggered way and avoiding overcrowded social events which are increasingly being blamed for being super-spreaders of the first wave of the coronavirus.
If outbreaks grow too large, some governments might choose to reimplement quarantines. If were reopening and we start to see case numbers growing rapidly in a few weeks, we may see rolling lockdowns or shutdowns to try to control the virus in those areas, Rasmussen says.
Most influenza pandemics have historically struck in distinct wave patterns, with a first peak usually followed by a resurgent second wave six months later. But there is no guarantee Sars-CoV-2 will play out in the same way.
Social distancing and robust testing or a lack of it will be critical in deciding the future of the pandemic. But its shape will also be influenced by factors outside our control.
The first is whether we can become immune to the virus, and if so, how long that protection endures for.
Sometimes immunity can last for decades. During the 2009 swine flu pandemic, public health authorities were initially confused as to why many older people seemed to be immune. Later, they discovered the virus was structurally similar to one that circulated during the 1918 pandemic. The immune systems of many older people had dealt with a similar virus 92 years ago.
Resistance to some earlier discovered coronaviruses has been thought to fade within a year. If immunity to Sars-CoV-2 is not permanent, a report from Harvard epidemiologists says it is likely to enter into regular circulation, coming in annual or biennial waves or sporadic outbursts.
The frequency of significant outbreaks may also be influenced by the weather. Most influenzas spread more easily in the winter because the virus is thought to prefer dry air over humidity, and because people in cold environments spend more time indoors and close to each other.
Existing coronaviruses also follow seasonal patterns. If this coronavirus behaves in the same way and there is not yet strong evidence that it does we could see regular wintertime surges of Covid-19.
But with so many people still apparently not immune to the virus, that summer relief may not arrive this year, says James Hay, a postdoctoral research fellow at Harvards Chan School of Public Health.
The factor that most contributes towards transmission is how many people are still susceptible, he says. And with so many still susceptible, thats going to swamp out any climate effect.
Significant mutations in the virus might also lead to a wave of new infections down the track. So far, scientists say that isnt a huge concern.
Even though there are different genomes out there that have changes compared to each other theres no evidence any of those changes are in spots that are critical for the immune system to recognise, Rasmussen says.
But that doesnt mean we wont see a significant mutation later. Weve only known about this for six months, so its possible different strains could emerge in the future, because it does have a higher mutation rate, she says. But right now theres no evidence that thats happening.
For countries that are able to implement highly effective interventions such as testing and contact tracing, this first wave of coronavirus cases may be the last they experience, at least for some time.
In New Zealand, which has managed to virtually eradicate the virus and installed robust systems to monitor new outbreaks, there may be no significant new outbreaks or future waves at all, says Nick Wilson, a professor of public health at the University of Otago.
New Zealand is about to eliminate this virus, Wilson says. Even if there are border control failures, I expect that the contact tracing system is now good enough to control an occasional outbreak. So this country should be able to avoid future waves until a vaccine arrives.
Countries with small populations and isolated geography such as New Zealand and Australia may be able to pull this off. South Korea is another country whose virus detection and suppression systems may be advanced enough to smother any future outbreaks. But it will be extremely difficult for most countries, especially those with large populations and porous borders.
There are a minority of epidemiologists who argue the deadliness of the coronavirus has been overstated. One of the most prominent is Sunetra Gupta, a professor of theoretical epidemiology at Oxford University, who says the virus could already be on the way out.
She argues that the antibody studies conducted so far have been unreliable, and do not take into account the possibility that many people might already be immune to Covid-19 because of exposure to more benign coronaviruses.
Others, including neuroscientist Karl Friston, have also spoken of some populations such as Germanys having some kind of immunological dark matter that has kept fatalities there low compared to Spain, Italy or the UK.
This view is an outlier, and most governments have preferred to plan for the worst-case scenario that millions of people are vulnerable to the virus. But Gupta argues the fact that virus transmission rates have peaked and fallen even in some places that did not institute harsh lockdowns is evidence for her theory.
In almost every context weve seen the epidemic grow, turn around and die away almost like clockwork, Gupta told the media outlet UnHerd last week.
To me that suggests that much of the driving force here was due to the buildup of immunity, she says. I think thats a more parsimonious explanation than one which requires in every country for lockdown, or various degrees of lockdown, including no lockdown, to have had the same effect.
NEWPORT, Ore. Lincoln County Public Health is investigating an outbreak of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Five of the recently announced cases are connected to Pacific Seafood in Newport.
Were committed to doing everything possible to protect the health and safety of our team members and community, said John Moody, General Manager of Pacific Seafood, Newport. We have temporarily suspended operations to professionally sanitize all buildings and will be offering testing to all Pacific Seafood employees. We are providing testing at our own expense in order to preserve free testing services for first responders and other community members. We thank the Lincoln County Health Department for their partnership and the hard work they are doing to keep the community healthy.
Pacific Seafood is working with Public Health to get their employees tested as quickly as possible, Deputy Director of Public Health Nicole Fields said. As we move through this outbreak and conversation continues regarding reopening the county, it is critically important that we all do our part to prevent the spread of COVID-19 including washing our hands frequently, maintaining physical distances, and wearing a face covering when out in public.
Public Health is currently tracing all contacts of the known cases. This generally is done by phone. Public Health asks that if a contact tracer reaches out to you, please answer the call or return the message. These calls help us keep our families and communities safe. Local public and tribal health authorities will never ask for your social security number, credit card number, bank account or billing information, or immigration status. (Note: Information will not be shared with immigration authority or law enforcement. Getting tested or getting treatment for COVID-19 will not affect your ability to get permanent residency in the U.S.)
For more information on contact tracing, please visithttps://www.co.lincoln.or.us/hhs/page/contact-tracing
For more information about COVID-19 or testing, please go to our website athttps://www.co.lincoln.or.us/hhs/page/2019-novel-coronavirus. Public Health also has a call center available Monday Friday from 9am 4:30pm. Phone 541-265-0621 or email[emailprotected]
Stay informed
Regional response: Lincoln County updates its site with COVID-19 news and guidance.Oregon response: The Oregon Health Authority leads the state response.United States response: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention leads the U.S. response.Global Response: The World Health Organization guides the global response.
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At a time when forecasters were thinking the unemployment rate would continue to soar to nearly 20% the data for May actually show a slight improvement. Unemployment is down to 13.3%, which is terrible compared to pre-pandemic numbers, but still better than the month prior.
Earlier this week, the Department of Labor broke down which cities had been hit the hardest with job losses through April. Two cities in Hawaii, followed by Las Vegas and Atlantic City, topped the list for the highest rates of unemployment in the country.
These are areas that depend significantly on tourism, travel, people coming to conventions, and thats all stopped, and they got hit hard early on, said Mark Zandi with Moodys Analytics.
Zandi says that while many areas of the country have started to reopen, tourism and business travel will likely remain depressed as long as worries about the coronavirus persist.
Several midwestern cities with strong ties to manufacturing also ranked high for unemployment, but could improve faster should business return to normal quickly.
Jed Kolko, chief economist with the job search site Indeed, says that in recent weeks, hes seen a drop in job postings in places other than just tourism spots.
Rather, theyre some of the big tech and finance hubs across the U.S., Kolko said. Ironically some of the places where its easier to work from home.
He says the slowdown in those sectors may be less about the current shutdowns and more about uncertainty over the future health of the economy.
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Theres no chance that this summer will be a normal season for vacations either in the U.S. or internationally. But that doesnt mean a trip will be impossible. People will just have to be smart about it. That could mean vacations closer to home, especially with gas prices so low. Air travel will be possible this summer,even if it is a very different experience than usual.
When does the expanded COVID-19 unemployment insurance run out?
The CARES Act, passed by Congress andsigned by President Donald Trump in March, authorized extra unemployment payments, increasing the amount of money, and broadening who qualifies. The increased unemployment benefits have an expiration date an extra $600 per week the act authorized ends on July 31.
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Tear gas rises as protesters face off with police during a demonstration on May 31 outside the White House over the death of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis Police. SAMUEL CORUM/Samuel Corum/AFP via Getty Images hide caption
Tear gas rises as protesters face off with police during a demonstration on May 31 outside the White House over the death of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis Police.
In nationwide demonstrations against the police killing of George Floyd and other black Americans, protesters are frequently pepper sprayed or enveloped in clouds of tear gas. These crowd-control weapons are rarely lethal, but in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic, there are growing calls for police to stop using these chemical irritants, because they can damage the body in ways that can spread the coronavirus and increase the severity of COVID-19.
Even before the coronavirus pandemic, some experts said additional research was needed on the risks of tear gas an umbrella term for several chemical "riot control agents" used by law enforcement. It's known that the chemicals can have both immediate and long-term health effects.
Their widespread use in recent weeks, while an infectious disease continues to spread across the U.S., has stunned experts and physicians. The coronavirus that causes the disease COVID-19 is highly contagious, spreads easily through the air via droplets, and can lead to severe or fatal respiratory illness. Deploying these corrosive, inhalable chemicals could harm people in several ways: expose more people to the virus, compromise the body's ability to fight off the infection and even cause mild infections to become more severe illnesses.
"This is a recipe for disaster," says professor Sven Eric Jordt, a researcher at Duke University School of Medicine who studies the effects of tear gas.
Jordt refers to these chemicals as "pain gases" because they activate certain pain-sensing nerves on the skin and in the mucous membranes of the eyes, mouth and nose.
"You have this excruciating pain, sneezing, coughing, the production of a lot of mucus that obstructs breathing," Jordt says.
People describe a burning and stinging sensation, even a sense of asphyxiation and drowning. Sometimes it causes vomiting or allergic reactions.
In law enforcement, officers generally use two types of chemicals for crowd control: CS gas and pepper spray.
The active ingredient in pepper spray, called capsaicin, is derived from chilis. It's often sprayed from cans at close quarters or lobbed into crowds in the form of "pepper balls."
CS gas (ochlorobenzylidene malononitrile) is a chlorinated, organic chemical that can induce "very strong inflammation" and "chemical injury" by burning the skin and airways when inhaled, Jordt says.
"Using it in the current situation with COVID-19 around is completely irresponsible," he adds. "There are sufficient data proving that tear gas can increase the susceptibility to pathogens, to viruses."
Jordt says research on the harms of tear gas has not kept up with its escalating use in the U.S and around the world in recent years. Many of the safety studies that law enforcement officials rely on date back to the 1950s and 60s, he says.
But a 2014 study from the U.S Army offers an alarming glimpse into how the chemical could escalate the pandemic. The study found that recruits who were exposed to tear gas as part of a training exercise were more likely to get sick with respiratory illnesses like the common cold and the flu.
"We have a lot of antiviral defenses that can inactivate viruses and prevent them from entering cells," he says. "These are depleted by inhalation of tear gas and also compromised."
The findings of the Army study led the U.S military to significantly reduce how much recruits were being exposed to the chemical.
"Even the army realized they had done something wrong and that this was more toxic than they thought before," Jordt says.
Even though there is a limited amount of research on this new coronavirus, there are studies from China and Italy about how other irritants, such as smoking and air pollution, affect COVID-19. These studies indicate that tear gas could also make people more likely to develop severe illness, says Dr. John Balmes, a pulmonologist at the University of California, San Francisco and an expert with the American Thoracic Society.
"I actually think we could be promoting COVID-19 by tear gassing protesters," says Balmes. "It causes injury and inflammation to the lining of the airways."
Balmes says this period of inflammation sets back the body's defenses, and makes it more likely that someone who already harbors the virus will become sick.
"It's adding fuel to the fire," says Balmes. "These exposures to tear gas would increase the risk of progression from the asymptomatic infection, to a symptomatic disease."
Growing evidence shows many people who have the coronavirus are asymptomatic and don't know they are infected, or are "presymptomatic" - infected with the virus and able to infect others, but not yet showing symptoms. With thousands of people jammed together at mass protests, the demonstrations are already primed to be 'superspreading events,' which can lead to an explosion of new cases. Outdoor gatherings typically decrease the chance of spreading the coronavirus. But activities like singing and yelling can increase the risk.
Tear gas and pepper spray can also sow confusion and panic in a crowd. People may rip off their masks and touch their faces, leading to more contamination.
Dr. Amesh Adalja, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, says the body's reaction to the chemicals cause people to shed more of the virus.
"If they're coughing, the particles actually emanate and are projectiles that travel about six feet or so and could land on other people," says Adalja, who is also a spokesperson for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.
"This is a way to almost induce the virus to be expelled from people when they are exposed to these agents."
Adalja anticipates the protests will inevitably lead to a spike in infections.
"We know that any kind of social unrest, especially in the midst of an outbreak, is only going to make things worse," he says.
He says the most recent example would be bombings in Yemen that exacerbated a cholera outbreak.
Dr. Rohini Haar, an emergency physician in Oakland, Calif.,, has studied the use of riot control agents around the world.
"These weapons don't actually deescalate tensions in peaceful community policing," says Haar who is a lecturer at the University of California, Berkeley.
Haar has also been treating COVID-19 patients. She recognizes there is a danger of spreading the virus at these gatherings, but she would not discourage people from attending the protests and exercising their right to free speech.
"It's a really tough situation," says Haar. "I think the irony is that people are rightfully and justifiably protesting police violence and are being met with violence that is worsening the pandemic conditions we're living under right now."
This week, more than a thousand physicians and health care professionals signed an open letter in support of the demonstrations.
Dr. Jade Pagkas-Bather, an infectious disease expert at the University of Chicago, is one of them.
She says it will be difficult to determine whether any spike in cases were a direct result of the protests, because they're happening at a time when many states are also allowing businesses to reopen.
"In everyday life, we weigh the risks and benefits of our actions. People who are going out to protests are clearly at a critical juncture where they are saying this state-sanctioned violence is unacceptable, and I am willing to put myself and others potentially at risk," she says.
The open letter she signed recommends ways that protesters, police and local officials can reduce the transmission of the virus.
Among the major recommendations: police should not use tear gas or pepper spray.
The R value in England has risen to between 0.7 and 1, according to the governments latest official estimates, with some regions now at risk of seeing a rise in the number of infections.
The latest data suggests the north-west is an area of concern and some local authorities may have R values the rate of transmission above 1, at which point the epidemic will begin to grow in these communities.
R, or the 'effective reproduction number', is a way of rating a diseases ability to spread. Its the average number of people on to whom one infected person will pass the virus. For an R of anything above 1, an epidemic will grow exponentially. Anything below 1 and an outbreak will fizzle out eventually.
At the start of the coronavirus pandemic, the estimated R for coronavirus was between 2 and 3 higher than the value for seasonal flu, but lower than for measles. That means each person would pass it on to between two and three people on average, before either recovering or dying, and each of those people would pass it on to a further two to three others, causing the total number of cases to snowball over time.
The reproduction number is not fixed, though. It depends on the biology of the virus; people's behaviour, such as social distancing;and a populations immunity. A country may see regional variations in its R number, depending on local factors like population density and transport patterns.
Hannah DevlinScience correspondent
The estimates come as data from the Office for National Statistics suggested Covid-19 cases had fallen significantly in recent weeks, with the number of people infected in England roughly halved in the second half of May.
The snapshot infection survey, covering the last two weeks in May, found that during that period an estimated 53,000 people were infected at any time. This puts the daily infection rate at 5,600 compared with almost 8,000 in last weeks figures.
Peter Benton, the director of population and public policy operations at the ONS, said: That, we think, is a real reduction in the number of people being infected.
Previously, the ONS had said the trend looked flat and stable, but as more data has accumulated a downward trend is now evident, the analysis said.
However, Benton said it remained a concern that of those who had tested positive in the study so far, only 30% had reported experiencing any symptoms either when the swab was taken or in the weeks before or after, suggesting that in the majority of cases, people may be unaware they are infected.
Whilst the rates are going down were still finding about 70% of those testing positive arent reporting any symptoms either at the visit when they have a swab or the visit before and after, said Benton. It does mean theres a risk that a number of us might be out and about, positive, infectious and dont know it.
Those working outside their homes were found to be three times as likely to test positive, and those working in patient-facing healthcare roles had a six times greater risk of infection.
Keith Neal, emeritus professor of the epidemiology of infectious diseases at the University of Nottingham, said the risk to those in patient-facing jobs was an important finding. This significantly higher figure suggests that a significant part of the current Covid-19 epidemic may be an infection control issue rather than a series of community outbreaks, he said. The control strategies are different in hospitals and care homes, which require infection control, whilst community transmission requires social distancing and contact-tracing.
The ONS snapshot data appears to show a steeper downward trend than Public Health England reports of new confirmed cases and hospital admissions. Although most regions have shown a downward trajectory, in some areas the trend has only been marginal and the overall reproduction number, R, has been hovering close to 1. The latest analysis by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicines modelling team suggests that the current halving rate for the epidemic in the UK is about two months and that nationally R is 0.9-1.
The slight rise in R revealed on Friday is likely to cause some concern.
A key issue is that R is a figure that covers all settings; it does not simply reflect transmission in the community which is particularly importantwhen it comes to lifting restrictions but is an overall figure that includes care homes. Experts have previously cautioned that outbreaks in care homes and hospitals may be raising the overall R value.
There are also some differences in R depending upon the source because different researchgroups calculate the number in slightly different ways. The figure released by the government takes these different approaches into account, and combines the results, yielding a range for the R number.
Experts say that as the overall number of cases reaches low levels, outbreaks will still be seen but R will become less important. That is because in a local outbreak the R value would look high, but the number of infections would be low and the outbreak would be in a small area, and therefore controllable.
However if R rises above 1 and stays there, the situation could quickly become problematic.
The impact of the firstwave of relaxation measures around lockdownrules is unlikely to be reflectedin the R number until next week.
