Florida's COVID-19 dashboard, here in a snapshot Monday, shows an uptick of cases. Florida GIS/Screenshot by NPR hide caption
Florida's COVID-19 dashboard, here in a snapshot Monday, shows an uptick of cases.
Over the last week, Florida has seen rising numbers of new COVID-19 cases. Since last Tuesday, the number of people who tested positive for the coronavirus totaled more than 1,000 each day. Saturday's total of 1,426 positive tests was the most since early April.
A similar rise in new cases is happening in other states, including North Carolina, Texas and California. It's leading to worries that as businesses reopen and stay-at-home orders are lifted, relaxed guidelines could lead to new outbreaks and even a second wave of infections.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis downplayed concerns that the rising numbers are related to the state's reopening. He said he believes more people are turning up positive for the coronavirus because more people are being tested. "We've now, in the last two weeks averaged 30,000 test results a day in the state of Florida. If you go back to the ... beginning of April, we weren't even doing 10,000 test results a day."
DeSantis pointed to the state's low rate of positive tests. In Miami-Dade County, the area in Florida hardest hit by the pandemic, the positive rate is around 5% now, much lower than it was in April, when it was more than 10%.
With widespread testing now available for anyone who wants it, DeSantis said many people without symptoms are being found positive for the coronavirus. "These are people, a lot of them don't even think they're necessarily sick, but (testing) is there so they go," he said. "And granted, 98% of them are negative, but you do find cases."
Mary Jo Trepka, a professor of epidemiology at Florida International University, agrees that increased testing is a major factor in the rising numbers. "It's easier to get testing now. Before, the people very, very sick in the hospital were being tested, but not necessarily people who were more mildly ill," she said.
Also more positive cases are being identified through contact tracing, Trepka said. "And so you're more likely to pick up those people who are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic," she said.
Areas of concern, DeSantis said, are agriculture communities in South Florida, where workers live in close quarters. "They've been going and aggressively testing all those areas," DeSantis said. Prisons are another area where outbreaks are being monitored and contained.
DeSantis said by the end of the week, every resident and worker in the state's nursing homes and other long-term care facilities will have been tested for the coronavirus. But those entities remain a pandemic hot spot. The infection rate among residents of long-term-care facilities is significantly higher than it is for other people tested in Florida.
Trepka said that at least in Miami-Dade she is seeing an impact from the opening of businesses and a relaxing of social distancing guidelines. The rate of positive cases among those tested for the coronavirus, which was steadily declining, has now leveled off. Trepka said, "It looks like some of the gains that we were making when we were completely closed down, we're no longer seeing those gains in terms of a decrease in positivity rates."
The study, published Monday in the scientific journal Nature, involved a modeling technique typically used for estimating economic growth to measure the effect of shutdown policies across six countries: China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France and the United States.
Those estimates suggest that, without certain policies in place from the beginning of the pandemic in January through early April, there would be roughly:
Overall, the study suggests that emergency Covid-19 policies prevented more than 500 million total coronavirus infections across all six countries.
"The last several months have been extraordinarily difficult, but through our individual sacrifices, people everywhere have each contributed to one of humanity's greatest collective achievements," Hsiang said in the press release.
"I don't think any human endeavor has ever saved so many lives in such a short period of time. There have been huge personal costs to staying home and canceling events, but the data show that each day made a profound difference," Hsiang said. "By using science and cooperating, we changed the course of history."
The study, conducted by researchers at UC Berkeley, included data across the six countries on daily infection rates, changes in coronavirus case definitions and the timing of 1,717 policy deployments -- including travel restrictions, social distancing measures and stay-at-home lockdowns -- from the earliest available dates this year through April 6.
The researchers analyzed that data to estimate how the daily growth rate of infections could have changed over time within a specific location if there were different combinations of large-scale policies enacted. The data showed that, excluding Iran, the growth rate of infections was around 38% per day on average before policies slowed the spread.
The researchers found that, across all six countries total, shutdown interventions prevented or delayed roughly 530 million total infections -- which, based on testing procedures and how cases were defined, translates to about 62 million confirmed cases.
The researchers did not estimate how many deaths might have been prevented.
"Our analysis focuses on confirmed infections, but other outcomes, such as hospitalizations or deaths, are also of policy interest. Future work on these outcomes may require additional modeling approaches because they are relatively more context- and state-dependent," the researchers wrote in the study.
The study had some limitations, including that available data on infections and measures across the countries were limited and the study can only suggest estimations about what could have happened.
"Our empirical results indicate that large-scale anti-contagion policies are slowing the COVID-19 pandemic," the researchers wrote in the study. "Because infection rates in the countries we study would have initially followed rapid exponential growth had no policies been applied, our results suggest that these policies have provided large health benefits."
Even though that study did not include an analysis on Covid-19 deaths, a separate study that also published on Monday examined deaths across Europe.
Across 11 countries in Europe, the lockdown orders and school closures that were put in place in response to the coronavirus pandemic may have averted about 3.1 million deaths through early May, according to estimates from another modeling study.
The countries included in the data were: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.
The study had some limitations, including that deaths attributable to Covid-19 early on in the pandemic could have been missed in the data, and there is variation in the reporting of deaths by country.
Flaxman added, "Our model suggests that the measures put in place in these countries in March 2020 were successful in controlling the epidemic by driving down the reproduction number and significantly reducing the number of people who would have been infected by the virus."
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Providence Transitional Care Center in Anchorage on Sunday, May 31, 2020. (Bill Roth / ADN)
An East Anchorage care center where a COVID-19 outbreak began in late May is now reporting 41 cases in residents and employees.
That news comes along with 19 new cases statewide reported Monday by the Alaska Department of Health and Social Services, including the first case in the Southeast community of Wrangell.
Haines Borough also reported its first case of COVID-19 on Monday, after a man with symptoms got tested last week. He is quarantined at home and did not recently travel, officials there said.
The double-digit increase reflects the latest in more than a week of increased case counts after almost a month with no significant spikes. Officials say thats to be expected given Alaskas mostly reopened economy, and that the increases arent stressing the states health-care system because COVID-related hospitalizations remain relatively low.
The outbreak of the infectious disease caused by the novel coronavirus at the Providence Transitional Care Center began in late May when a patient with a cough and a fever tested positive. The facility immediately tested more than 400 residents and employees.
Another 17 cases were discovered within several days of the May 29 onset.
As of Friday, that number had risen to 29: 14 residents and 15 caregivers, with two residents sick enough to require hospitalization. One of the caregivers also works on the campus of an adjacent long-term care center.
By status
A hospital spokeswoman on Friday said some residents have no symptoms and were in isolation while others with symptoms were getting treatment. The infected caregivers are quarantined at home.
The facility on Monday had 41 positive cases involving 16 residents and 25 caregivers, according to a Providence spokesman. Two require hospitalization.
Providence conducted a second round of testing on residents and caregivers over the weekend and staff are waiting for all of the results to come back from the lab, according to a care center coronavirus update.
Providence officials have said they believe the first patient was exposed to the virus within the facility because of the time theyd spent within the center before becoming infected.
The statewide case count of COVID-positive residents rose to a total of 563 since March, with 169 active cases now. The number of total hospitalizations since March remained at 48. Ten Alaskans have died with the virus.
Anchorage saw nine new cases, according to state health data. Additional cases were reported on the Kenai Peninsula, in the Mat-Su and in Juneau.
The state is seeing clusters of COVID-19 infections in Anchorage, with some in Mat-Su and Kenai, according to the states chief medical officer, Dr. Anne Zink.
A crew member on the state ferry Tustumena tested positive in Dutch Harbor late Saturday, but that test wasnt counted in the state tally until Sunday and reported Monday. It marked the first COVID-19 case for the Alaska Marine Highway System.
The ferry is temporarily out of service as it returns to Homer with 35 crew and six passengers, state officials say.
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With last weeks retractions of two Covid-19 papers from a pair of the worlds top medical journals, the scientific community is once again wrestling withthe question that arises any time ahigh-profile publication blows up: Could this have been prevented?
Entire forests have been felled so scholars can write papers on the flawed process of peer review, in which journal editors ask (usually three) outside experts to read a manuscript for rigor, methodological soundness, consistency, and overall quality. Peer review is rife with gender bias. Reviewers try to block competitors papers. They steal ideas. They favor authors from prestigious institutions. The process is hardly better than chance at keeping bad studies from being published. It does little to improve papers.
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New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern during a news conference about COVID-19 at Parliament in Wellington on Monday. Marty Melville/AFP via Getty Images hide caption
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern during a news conference about COVID-19 at Parliament in Wellington on Monday.
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says the country has officially eradicated COVID-19 and will return to normal after the last-known infected person recovered.
Isolation and quarantine for those arriving from abroad will continue.
The announcement comes weeks after Ardern's government began easing up on restrictions after New Zealand all but eliminated community transmission of the new coronavirus.
The latest announcement, which brings the country of 5 million to its lowest alert level, means that large public gatherings, such as concerts and sports events, will be allowed for the first time since March 23, when Ardern announced a nationwide lockdown amid a rising number of daily cases. Restaurants and public transport will also be allowed to resume normal operations.
"Today, I can announce that [the] Cabinet has agreed, that we will now move to Level 1 to get our economy back to normal again. And we will start almost immediately," she said.
When she heard the news that there were no more active COVID-19 cases, Ardern said she "did a little dance" for her daughter, Neve, who will turn 2 years old later this month.
"[S]he was caught a little by surprise but she joined in, having absolutely no idea why I was dancing around the lounge but enjoying it nonetheless," the prime minister said.
New Zealand, which responded quickly to the threat of the disease, is often cited as a model for how other countries might handle the crisis. In March, it imposed a two-week quarantine on anyone arriving from abroad and quickly followed that with a monthlong stay-at-home order for all New Zealanders. Cases peaked in early April and then quickly fell off over the next few weeks. By late May, New Zealand had just one active COVID-19 case.
All told, New Zealand has seen just over 1,500 infections and 22 deaths from the disease.
Even so, Ardern warned that the disease remains a concern and that New Zealand is "not immune to what is happening in the rest of the world."
"At Level 1, we expect the continuation of recovery," she told reporters, but cautioned, "we will almost certainly see cases here again. That is not a sign we have failed."
She reiterated the need for New Zealanders to stay home if they feel sick, follow a doctor's orders to self-isolate if necessary and to continue frequent hand-washing and other measures.
In a tweet, James Shaw, the country's climate change minister, was in a celebratory mood, and used a Maori expression, "Ka pai, Aotearoa," which means, "Good job, New Zealand."
"I reckon I might pop that bottle of bubbly tonight and raise a glass to all the people of this fine country," he wrote.
Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe Nature.com
COVID-19 and Hot Weather: Separating Fact from Fiction
With hot weather approaching the JIC partners would like to illuminate the facts regarding COVID-19, Coronaviruses, and high temperatures. It is not yet known whether weather and temperature affect the spread of COVID-19. Some other viruses, like those that cause the common cold and flu, spread more during cold weather months but that does not mean it is impossible to become sick with these viruses during other months. There is much more to learn about the transmissibility, severity, and other features associated with COVID-19 and investigations are ongoing. Generally, coronaviruses survive for shorter periods at higher temperatures and higher humidity than in cooler or dryer environments. However, there is no direct data regarding this topic for this virus, nor is there direct data for a temperature-based cutoff for inactivation at this point. The necessary temperature would also be based on the materials of the surface, the environment, etc. Regardless of temperature please followthe Centers for Disease Control and Preventions (CDC) guidance for cleaning and disinfection.
The Denver Zoo will reopen to the public this week and multiple COVID-19 safety measures and practices will be in place, including social distancing and limits on lines and capacity.
After being closed since March 17 to help battle the spread of COVID-19, the zoo will reopen Wednesday and Thursday for members only Member Gratitude Days and to the general public starting Friday.
In accordance with the latest guidance from Local and State officials, the Zoo has implemented sweeping operational changes to create a healthy environment, and ensure the safety of its guests, employees and animals, according to a Monday news release.
All guests over the age of 3 will be required to wear face coverings as mandated by Denver officials.
We are beyond thrilled to welcome back our community of friends and neighbors who have stood by our side and provided such crucial, meaningful support while we were closed, said Bert Vescolani, zoo president and CEO, in the release. But we remain vigilant in our obligation to protect this community, and have gone through exhaustive planning and preparation so that our guests can feel safe and comfortable while connecting with our 3,000 animals.
The following are some of the new safety measures at the Zoo:
Guests will also be asked to do their part and follow zoo safety guidelines.
The zoos newest attraction Stingray Cove opens in mid-June. Shopping and dining has been modified at the zoos 80-acre campus. The zoo will continue to update its policies and procedures as needed.
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As the world begins to unlock, many of us will be seeing friends and family again - albeit with guidelines on how close you can get to one another. But why is it more difficult to stay physically apart from friends and family than a stranger in a supermarket queue? Nicola Davis speaks to Prof John Drury about the psychology of physical distancing and why we like to be near those we feel emotionally close with
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