Theres no solid evidence that bird flu is spreading among people, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Tuesday amid an outbreak of the virus in dairy cows.
New data from 189 of the agencys wastewater sampling sites showed that as of May 4, an influenza A virus had been detected at higher-than-average levels in a handful of sites across the country, including in Alaska, California, Florida, Illinois and Kansas.
The bird flu currently circulating in cows, called H5N1, is a type of influenza A.
Just one site, in Saline County, Kansas, showed notably high levels of flu virus for this time of the year. Four herds in Kansas tested positive in April, the CDC said.
Its unclear whether the Kansas wastewater samples were limited to human waste or whether they included runoff water from farms. Its also unclear whether the high levels of virus in the wastewater indicate infections in humans, cows, birds or other animals. There hasnt been any unusual uptick in flu-like illnesses in recent weeks, the CDC said.
Wed really like to understand what might be driving that influenza A increase during what we consider the lower transmission season for influenza A, said Jonathan Yoder, deputy director of the CDCs division of infectious disease readiness and innovation.
A representative from one of Saline Countys major hospitals didnt respond to a request for comment.
Dr. Cameron Wolfe, an infectious disease expert and an associate professor of medicine at the Duke University School of Medicine in North Carolina, said the new CDC data is actually pretty reassuring.
Were in the middle of May, he said, when there isnt naturally a lot of flu. Wolfe said he isnt seeing any uptick in flu-like illnesses in his medical practice.
As of Tuesday, 42 herds in nine states Kansas, Colorado, Idaho, Michigan, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, South Dakota and Texas had been affected.
The agency is monitoring 260 people who have been exposed to infected dairy cows for flu-like symptoms. Thirty-three people have been tested for the virus. So far just one person a dairy farm worker in Texas has been diagnosed with bird flu connected to the dairy cow outbreak. He developed a severe case of conjunctivitis, or pinkeye, and has recovered.
Sales of raw milk appear to be on the rise, despite years of warnings about the health risks of drinking the unpasteurized products and an outbreak of bird flu in dairy cows.
Since March 25, when the bird flu virus was confirmed in U.S. cattle for the first time, weekly sales of raw cows milk have ticked up 21% to as much as 65% compared with the same periods a year ago, according to the market research firm NielsenIQ.
That runs counter to advice from the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which calls raw milk one of the riskiest foods people can consume.
Raw milk can be contaminated with harmful germs that can make you very sick, the CDC says on its website.
As of Monday, at least 42 herds in nine states are known to have cows infected with the virus known as type A H5N1, federal officials said.
The virus has been found in high levels in the raw milk of infected cows. Viral remnants have been found in samples of milk sold in grocery stores, but the FDA said those products are safe to consume because pasteurization has been confirmed to kill the virus.
Its not yet known whether live virus can be transmitted to people who consume milk that hasn't been heat-treated.
But CDC officials warned last week that people who drink raw milk could theoretically become infected if the bird flu virus comes in contact with receptors in the nose, mouth and throat or by inhaling virus into the lungs. There's also concern that if more people are exposed to the virus, it could mutate to spread more easily in people.
States have widely varying regulations regarding raw milk, with some allowing retail sales in stores and others allowing sale only at farms. Some states allow so-called cowshares, where people pay for milk from designated animals, and some allow consumption only by farm owners, employees or non-paying guests.
The NielsenIQ figures include grocery stores and other retail outlets. They show that raw milk products account for a small fraction of overall dairy sales. About 4,100 units of raw cow's milk and about 43,000 units of raw milk cheese were sold the week of May 5, for instance, according to NielsenIQ. That compares with about 66.5 million units of pasteurized cow's milk and about 62 million units of pasteurized cheese.
Still, testimonies to raw milk are trending on social media sites. And Mark McAfee, owner of Raw Farm USA in Fresno, California, says he cant keep his unpasteurized products in stock.
People are seeking raw milk like crazy, he said, noting that no bird flu has been detected in his herds or in California. Anything that the FDA tells our customers to do, they do the opposite.
The surge surprises Donald Schaffner, a Rutgers University food science professor who called the trend absolutely stunning.
Food safety experts like me are just simply left shaking their heads, he said.
From 1998 to 2018, the CDC documented more than 200 illness outbreaks traced to raw milk, which sickened more than 2,600 people and hospitalized more than 225.
Raw milk is far more likely than pasteurized milk to cause illnesses and hospitalizations linked to dangerous bacteria such as campylobacter, listeria, salmonella and E. coli, research shows.
Before milk standards were adopted in 1924, about 25% of foodborne illnesses in the U.S. were related to dairy consumption, said Alex OBrien, safety and quality coordinator for the Center for Dairy Research. Now, dairy products account for about 1% of such illnesses, he said.
I liken drinking raw milk to playing Russian roulette, OBrien said. The more times people consume it, the greater the chance theyll get sick, he added.
Despite the risks, about 4.4% of U.S. adults nearly 11 million people report that they drink raw milk at least once each year, and about 1% say they consume it each week, according to a 2022 FDA study.
Bonni Gilley, 75, of Fresno, said she has raised generations of her family on raw milk and unpasteurized cream and butter because she believes its so healthy" and lacks additives.
Reports of bird flu in dairy cattle have not made her think twice about drinking raw milk, Gilley said.
If anything, it is accelerating my thoughts about raw milk, she said, partly because she doesnt trust government officials.
Such views are part of a larger problem of government mistrust and a rejection of expertise, said Matthew Motta, who studies health misinformation at Boston University.
It's not that people are stupid or ignorant or that they dont know what the science is, he said. Theyre motivated to reject it on the basis of partisanship, their political ideology, their religion, their cultural values.
CDC and FDA officials didnt respond to questions about the rising popularity of raw milk.
Motta suggested that the agencies should push back with social media posts extolling the health effects of pasteurized milk.
Communicators need to make an effort to understand why people consume raw milk and try to meet them where they are, he said.
___
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Posted: May 14, 2024 Last Updated: 11 Hours Ago
Early tests on milk being sold in Canada found no signs of the virus that causes a dangerous form of bird flu, federal officials say.
Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) laboratories have tested 142 retail milk samples from "across Canada," reads a Tuesday statement from the agency.
To date, all samples in the CFIA's interim round of tests have been negative.
"Negative results mean that [virus] fragments are not present in milk. This supports current reports that the virus has not been detected in Canadian dairy cows," the CFIA's statement continued.
Canadian monitoring is underway as the U.S. grapples with an unprecedented outbreak of H5N1 bird flu in dairy cattle.
Cases have spread to 46 herds across nine states, and scientists south of the border suspect limited testing and surveillance could be masking the true scope of the outbreak since U.S. Food and Drug Administration tests recently found H5N1 virus particles in roughly one in five samples of milk being sold on store shelves.
Food safety specialists have been quick to note that pasteurization, a specialized heating process, works to kill a host of pathogens.
"There's no evidence showing that [H5N1] is threatening our milk supply," noted Siyun Wang, an associate professor of food, nutrition and health at the University of British Columbia.
In late April, U.S. federal officials said testing confirmed the pasteurization process worked for H5N1, ensuring pasteurized products remain safe to drink even if they contain viral fragments. (Health Canada made milk pasteurizationmandatory in 1991.)
Though the sale of raw milk is allowed in many U.S. states, there have been no reports yet of anyone getting sickfrom drinking it. A single human case of bird flu in a farm worker has been linked to the dairy cattle outbreaks in Texas,but the transmission route isn't yet clear, and the worker's only symptom was eye inflammation.
Multiple farm cats, however,have died after drinking contaminated raw milk from H5N1-infected cows.
Research on some of the earliest samples, published in the Emerging Infectious Diseases journal, showed cats began showing symptoms a day or so after disease was found in cows and roughly half the infected cats died.
WATCH | Human bird flu case linked to U.S. dairy cattle outbreaks:
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In its latest statement, the CFIA said the agency understands that "Canadians may be concerned about the safety of milk and milk products" in this country, as well.
Testing on milk samples here is happening in collaboration with the CFIA, Public Health Agency of Canadaand Health Canada, using highly sensitive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests.
As for where exactly the samples came from in Canada and how long testing will continue CBC News is awaiting additional information from federal officials.
Scott Weese, a veterinarian and expert on infectious animal diseases at the University of Guelph, said the CFIA's early results are hopeful, suggesting there aren'twidespread infections going unreported, but they also don't guarantee the virus hasn't hit any Canadian cattle.
"It's a good start," he added. "It's a relatively small number of samples."
Alongside milk testing, the CFIA is also requiring negative test results for lactating dairy cattle being imported from the United States and "facilitating the voluntary testing of cows" that aren't presenting with any symptoms.
Weeseagreed it will be crucial to look at cattle movement and ensure no infected cows make it into Canada. But what's also important, he stressed, is wild bird surveillance alongside monitoringon Canadian farms, including financial support for farmersand clear communication on what happens if a farm does find a positive case.
That could mean the federal government goes as far as buying up all the milk from an infected premise, to ensure there are no disincentives for farmers to test their herds, Weese said: "We really should be doubling down on our prevention methods."
Wang, from the University of British Columbia, agreed ongoing testing should continue, both to ensure safety in the food supply chain and to generate more scientific data.
In the U.S., officials are ramping up surveillance, including wastewater monitoring efforts and nearly $200 million USin funding to test for H5N1, including payouts of $75 US for any farm workerwho agrees to give blood or nasal swab samples to help track the spread of this virus.
Lauren Pelley Senior Health & Medical Reporter
Lauren Pelley covers health and medical science for CBC News, including the global spread of infectious diseases, Canadian health policy, pandemic preparedness, and the crucial intersection between human health and climate change. Two-time RNAO Media Award winner for in-depth health reporting in 2020 and 2022. Contact her at: lauren.pelley@cbc.ca
The bird flu has spread to dairy cows. Is is safe to drink milk? What if you have chickens in your backyard? Whats the latest news about bird flu? Photo: Getty Images.
The bird flu is here and has spread to dairy cows. Does that mean were headed for the next pandemic? Not yet.
Unless youre someone who is actively involved in raising birds or chickens, or you have close contact with infected cows, its unlikely youll be exposed, said Dr. Michelle Barron, veteran pandemic fighter and senior medical director of infection prevention and control for UCHealth
Animal handlers are usually the most at risk, said Barron, who is also a professor at the University of Colorado School of Medicine on the Anschutz Medical Campus.
We dont get too worried about spillover unless we see prolonged human-to-human transmission, she said. Weve seen some cases of bird flu that have spread within the same household but doesnt necessarily spread beyond that.
While its important to monitor the virus, its not yet a threat to humans and shouldnt take up much brain space.
Barron broke down the basics and answered our burning questions about H5N1.
No. Unlike COVID-19, this strain of bird flu (H5N1) has been around for about 30 years. So far, only two human cases have been reported since an outbreak of the virus among domestic birds began in 2022, including a Colorado poultry farm worker and a Texas dairy farm worker. Both cases were mild and resulted from direct contact with sick animals.
While the virus has been around for a while, an outbreak that began in 2022 among birds has killed about 90 million domestic birds in the United States. If you paid north of $7 for a carton of eggs in 2023, this outbreak impacted your wallet. Egg prices in Colorado skyrocketed in early 2023 after an outbreak, dubbed the worst-ever resulted in the deaths of more than 6 million chickens between infections and culling efforts to reduce spread. This is the longest and deadliest outbreak of H5N1 in history, according to Barrons colleagues at the University of Colorado School of Medicine.
The virus is making headlines again because it spread to mammals, including dairy cows, cats, dogs, bears, sea lions and more. As of May 2, H5N1 had been found in 36 herds of dairy cows in nine states among them, a dairy farm in northeastern Colorado.
The jump to mammals has experts watching closely, as the change gives the virus an opportunity to figure out how to replicate more efficiently in mammalian species.
Its bird flu, which is different from human flus or pig flus, Barron said. Animals can get the flu just like we do. The thing we know about this bird flu is that it mostly affects chickens, causing respiratory symptoms.
Highly pathogenic speaks to the mortality piece and the ability to cause severe disease. A highly pathogenic avian flu virus has a high rate of transmission and a high mortality rate in birds, Barron said.
Any animal has the potential to get infected, its just unclear how effective the virus will be, Barron said.
Yes, it can.
There have been a couple documented cases of transmission between birds and humans and cows and humans, but no human-to-human transmission, Barron said.
Barron said the risk of spillover to humans is very low right now.
But animal handlers should be careful.
Good protection measures include using gloves, masks and eye protection if you do have close contact with animals, but I imagine it can be a messy job, so that might not always be possible, Barron said. Weve seen some cases of bird flu that have spread within the same household in the past but doesnt necessarily spread beyond that. We dont get too concerned unless it spreads more widely.
Symptoms have been mild. Weve seen pink eye and some cold-like symptoms, Barron said.
Theres the potential for that to change, which makes everybody so nervous. Flu viruses can mix together and exchange genetics so pieces of a bird flu can get into a human flu, making the virus more transmissible to humans. Thats how pandemics often happen pieces of an animal flu get into human flus, and we dont have immunity to that new virus, she said.
Thats exactly right, Barron said. Pigs have receptors for bird flus, pig flus and human flus. The viruses dont necessarily make them sick, but they can hang out in the pigs respiratory systems and intermix. Thats where some of the genetic exchange can happen. Thats what happened in 2009 with the H1N1 swine flu pandemic.
Yes, pasteurized milk is safe to drink. The heating effects of the pasteurization process will kill the virus, and the virus fragments are not dangerous, Barron said.
Some believe raw milk has health benefits. Im in favor of pasteurization because of what I do, Barron said. I see what happens when people eat raw cheeses and drink raw milk. Im more worried about listeria, but bird flu is on that list now as well. The average person at the grocery store wont be encountering raw milk because it isnt sold there, although they may find some unpasteurized cheese.
Flu pandemics do occur every 20 years or so, the last one being swine flu in 2009, Barron said. When we get flu shots every year, were protecting against what we call antigenic drift. I like to tell people thats like if you have to write something over and over again on a chalkboard, by the time youre writing it the 20th time, there may be a spelling error.
That spelling error gets copied, and the original word eventually doesnt look the same. A pandemic is more likely to happen when there is an antigenic shift.
Thats when we have the human flu viruses mixed with the animal flu viruses that produce something our immune system doesnt have protection against. There have been other bird flu pandemics, including the 1997 H5N1 strain, the 1970s H1N1 flu strain, the 1968 H3N2 flu strain, and of course the 1918 H1N1 flu strain.
Right. It doesnt always have to be extremely deadly. I think thats something people assume. If you get this, youre going to die. And thats not necessarily true, Barron said. The term pandemic doesnt necessarily reflect the severity of the illness. It just means you have a susceptible group of people, and the virus can spread.
Unless you are working directly with animals, theres really nothing to do, Barron said Follow standard safe cooking practices, and consume pasteurized products. If you are working directly with animals, wash your hands frequently and consider wearing a mask or face shield to prevent splashing.
In some ways, no, Barron said. You cant stop wild birds, such as ducks and geese, from flying in and out and interacting with chickens. That proximity is always a risk. But on the flipside, backyard chicken operations are smaller, so the conditions and space constraints are different. The higher the volume, the higher the risk.
We have some antivirals that work against human flus, Barron said. I dont know if they would have the same effect against this bird flu strain. My suspicion is they would. But so far, the cases have been mild and really just call for observation and treating the symptoms as opposed to treating the disease.
At this point, its a completely different situation, Barron said. I think the main lesson is to be vigilant in our surveillance and paying attention to these smaller outbreaks.
I think the communication piece has also changed. Were making sure to get that information out there early so there arent all these conspiracy theories or information that is just wrong. Even if we dont know everything, were communicating better about what we do know, she said.
So, this is my personal bias and a professional hazard. I think you should always have hand sanitizer around because hands transmit so many infections, Barron said. But beyond that, no, I dont think so. Its good to be prepared for emergencies, but theres no need to stockpile.
Bird flu virus has been found in milk from infected dairy cattle. The Food and Drug Administration, or FDA, is preparing in case the current strain of avian flu circulating in the U.S. jumps to humans on a large scale. The FDA conducted a survey of 297 milk products and found viral RNA from the H5N1 bird flu in about 20% of samples.
Is such milk safe to drink? Scott Pegan, a professor of biomedical sciences in the School of Medicine at the University of California, Riverside, answers a few pressing questions about H5N1 bird flu virus showing up in milk.
An expert on emerging and persistent viruses, Pegan has partnered for several years with industry and federal agencies on research for drug discoveries and is a requested panelist and speaker at numerous forums on drug discovery, viruses, and structural biology.
The finding of 1 in 5 commercial milk samples containing fragments of the H5N1 avian flu does not currently pose any direct risks to consumers. In the U.S., commercial intrastate-sold milk is required to be pasteurized. This process is geared to kill viruses like H5N1 and bacteria that can pose a threat to human health. While killed, the remanent of viruses and bacteria in the milk do remain.
The indirect concern within the scientific and medical community is more around the increased risk of spillover to humans from animals serving as reservoirs for H5N1. Prior to the outbreak in dairy cattle, this concern principally revolved around risk of transmission to humans from wild birds or poultry. Typically, avian flu spillover infections outside of birds or poultry were observed principally in the upper respiratory track of mammals. The presence of H5N1 avian flu in the milk of these cattle shows that cattle may be able to provide a new reservoir for this virus increasing the odds of exposure to those in direct contact with the infected cattle. The more animals infected, the higher chance humans come in direct contact with the virus, which likely would lead to a greater number of human cases. The case of cattle to human transmission seen in Texas is in line with this concern. Also, the more mammals infected increases the chances the virus will adapt to other mammals, such as humans.
No, the virus cannot be spread through pasteurized milk and milk products. What is currently being reported is the detection of broken down H5N1 avian flu virus remnants, particularly the RNA of the virus. This is because the typical first line detection used for surveillance of viruses relies on the process of quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). This process only detects the presence of fragments from H5N1s RNA genome, but not necessarily intact virus capable of infection. Its akin to detecting the presence of a car engine, or transmission. You know the engine came from a car, but dont know if it came from a car capable of being a moving vehicle. Additional tests such as culturing the virus are then used to detect whether what is detected is an intact virus capable of infection.
The FDA and other research laboratories have been and are performing these additional tests. They have not reported any intact H5N1 avian flu virus in samples of commercial pasteurized milk so far and are unlikely given the pasteurization standards within the U.S.
Milk that has been pasteurized is safe and there is no current reason to avoid it or other pasteurized milk products based on the FDAs findings. However, there is a substantial risk of consuming unpasteurized milk and products of that milk. Over the past few years, there has been an increased consumer demand for these unpasteurized products. While not allowed to be sold via interstate brands, some states have relaxed local sale of these products at Farmers markets and similar outlets. Individuals may want to avoid those unpasteurized products until more information is obtained about this H5N1 avian flu outbreak in dairy cattle.
Cats have been previously reported to be susceptible to infection by various strains of Influenza A. The prevailing view has been that cats often contract these cases from close contact with human owners suffering from the flu. With humans not being a reservoir for the avian flu, feline cases of avian flu have historically been rare but present in several countries over the years countries where the avian flu has become endemic. In laboratory settings and what has been observed in wild and domesticated cats, the avian flu has been found to cause pneumonia as well as internal tissue and neurological damage with fatal outcomes.
Avian flu transmission to cats occurs through the same means as other strains, direct contact, contaminated surfaces, and ingestion. Transmission by ingestion of infected wild birds or poultry has been particularly highlighted in several feline deaths from domestic cats to large cats like tigers. The recent cattle outbreak in Texas also extended the risk of transmission through feline consumption of avian flu contaminated unpasteurized milk. Individuals should take care when coming into contact with animals consuming raw poultry and beef as well as milk that could be infected with avian flu virus.
As seen with several viruses capable of infecting multiple animals, close species-species proximity is a major factor in viruses spilling over to a new species. The avian flu outbreak in dairy cattle has created a new route for dairy workers to come into close contact with the virus. These workers should be on the lookout for infected animals and take measures to protect themselves from infection. These measures that were already implemented in several states prior to the outbreak aim to reduce risk of infection. These include use of N-95 masks, rubber boots, as well as certain types of coveralls, goggles, and hair covers that prevent individuals coming into contact with infected fluids.
Header image credit: JUN LI/iStock/Getty Images Plus.
The recent finding that pasteurized milk in the United States is no longer suspected of harboring the H5N1 avian influenza virus has alleviated some public health concerns. However, the persistence of the bird flu virus in the U.S. cattle population is alarming experts who fear that cattle could become a lasting reservoir for the virus.
This scenario provides the virus with more opportunities to mutate and potentially jump to humans. Research indicates that the virus can be transmitted between birds and cows, suggesting it could disseminate across extensive geographic regions.
Unlike other mammals that succumb to the virus, most cows carrying the virus do not show severe symptoms or die, making it difficult to detect infected animals without specific testing.
Additionally, a single cow might carry multiple flu viruses, raising the possibility of these viruses exchanging genetic material and creating new strains more capable of infecting humans.
Eventually the wrong combination of gene segments and mutations inevitably comes along. Whatever opportunity we may have had to nip it in the bud we lost by a really slow detection, said Michael Worobey, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona.
The virus is not new; different forms of H5N1 have been in circulation since the 1990s, with a particularly lethal variant identified in 1996. While this variant has decimated millions of birds and affected various mammals, cows were not previously recognized as hosts until recently.
Following the discovery of H5N1 in U.S. cattle on March 25, with 36 herds in 9 states testing positive by May 7, concerns have escalated.
Every time it gets a new mammalian host species, like cows, theres more risk of human transmission and reduced human immunity, said Jessica Leibler, an environmental epidemiologist at Boston University.
Genomic analysis by the U.S. Department of Agriculture suggests that the virus transitioned from wild birds to cattle in late 2023. Thus, cows appear to be effective mixing vessels where the virus can exchange genetic material with other viruses, significantly enhancing the risk of developing a strain that can efficiently infect humans.
If you have a virus thats hopscotching back and forth between cows, humans and birds, that virus is going to have selective pressures to grow efficiently in all those species, said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan.
Gregory Gray, an infectious-disease epidemiologist at the University of Texas, pointed out the potential for H5N1 to become endemic in cows, a situation complicated by the impracticality of culling infected cattle.
The constant interaction between humans and these vast numbers of animals makes cattle an extremely concerning reservoir for bird flu.
The transmission mechanisms of the virus remain under investigation, with wild birds suspected as a primary vector. Concerns also exist about airborne transmission, which could explain the spread between dairy farms.
Current regulatory measures include mandatory testing of cows before interstate transport, which helps researchers track the viruss spread but may not halt it. However, given the potential for airborne transmission, vaccinating cattle against H5N1 might become necessary.
Current information on the transmission of the virus between humans is limited. A recent study published in the New England Journal of Medicine on May 3rd confirmed that a dairy worker in Texas was infected, showing only mild symptoms. However, tests have not been conducted on others who live and work with this individual.
Although there have not been many reported deaths or severe cases among humans, suggesting that the virus may not be highly transmissible or lethal, exposure among farm workers may be quite common.
When you see symptomatic patients, thats the tip of the iceberg, Liebler said. She fears that the virus could remain undetected in various species for an extended period, potentially mutating and setting the stage for a future pandemic. We have an awareness now from the COVID pandemic of how devastating that could be, she added.
The experts are advocating for public health initiatives to commence testing on workers and their families to ensure any human transmission of the virus is promptly identified. H5N1 is with us. Its not a virus thats going to disappear by any means, Liebler concluded.
The continued presence of H5N1 in cattle poses significant risks, necessitating urgent and comprehensive measures to understand and mitigate its impact. As Leibler remarked, H5N1 is with us. Its not a virus thats going to disappear by any means.
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A multistate outbreak of avian flu, with one in five commercial milk samples testing positive for genetic traces of the virus, has led to congressional hearings over concerns of the health risk passed to humans.
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) is an infectious viral illness that spreads primarily among wild and domestic birds. But the virus that causes bird flu can sometimes jump into other animals, including dairy cows, and, in some cases, humans.
Although risk of infection remains low, a recent Senate committee hearing with a U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) chief led to suggestions that the disease could kill in one in four Americans.
The Claim
A post on X, formerly Twitter, by user WarClandestine posted on May 10, 2024, viewed 269,000 times, included a screengrab from a news article that read "FDA says it's preparing for a bird flu pandemic in people that could kill one in four Americans."
User WarClandestine wrote: "It's starting to look like H5N1 Bird Flu may be 'Disease X.'
"The MSM have been subtly planting the idea in our heads, and now our health agencies are admitting they are preparing for the H5N1 pandemic.
"They are going to try it again...
"Mail-in ballots are their objective."
The Facts
The headline attached to this post is missing some crucial context that alters how it might be understood.
While it may be interpretated that H5N1 virus could kill 25 percent of the American population, that might only be true if everyone was infected with the disease.
As the full story published by the Daily Mail explains, FDA Commissioner Dr. Robert Califf told a Senate Appropriations Committee last week that H5N1 mortality rates among those infected had been 25 percent in other parts of the world.
Califf told senators that the virus was mutating and that the FDA was preparing for a pandemic should it become more infectious.
"We got to have testing, got to have antivirals and we need to have a vaccine ready to go so we've been busy getting prepared for if the virus does mutate in a way that jumps into humans on a larger level," he said.
However, Califf added that the risk to public health was low, with only two human cases of H5N1 reported in the U.S., one of which was detected in Texas after exposure to dairy cattle presumed to be infected.
The data that supports a one-in-four mortality rate also deserves some scrutiny. Dr. Alastair Ward, associate professor of biodiversity and ecosystem management at the University of Leeds, told Newsweek that the statistic was thought to have come from the outbreak of H5N1 in Chinese poultry in the 1990s and had "nothing to do with the current outbreak among U.S. cows, which is a different reassortant of the virus."
"Twenty-five percent was not the population mortality rate, it was the mortality rate of Chinese poultry workersplucking, gutting and butchering in marketswho showed symptoms of infection during the early 1990s H5N1 outbreak in China, i.e. of those people at very high risk of exposure and who fell ill with high path avian flu, a quarter of them died.
"We have no idea what number or proportion of 1990s Chinese poultry workers were infected but showed minor or no symptoms or were challenged but did not become infected.
"There will have been some within each of these categories, so the mortality rate among 1990s Chinese poultry workers was almost certainly lower than 25 percent, and the Chinese population mortality rate will have been much, much, much lower."
Last month, the World Health Organization (WHO) released data showing that between January 1, 2003, and March 28, 2024, among 254 cases of human H5N1 infection reported in Vietnam, China, Cambodia and Laos, 141 were fatal, meaning the case fatality rate was 56 percent.
However, as Ward told Newsweek,it was likely to have only been among those who presented with symptoms, noting that small sample sizes would create large proportional differences.
"People who don't suffer illness or who suffer mild symptoms tend to stay away from doctors so don't feature in these stats," he said.
"The 254 people presenting with avian flu symptoms over this time do not constitute a random or representative sample of the global human population or even the population exposed to H5N1 during that outbreak, so it is not an estimate of the mortality rate, it's the proportion of a small sample of ill people that died with H5N1 over several years.
"Past human cases have almost exclusively been among those who lived and/or worked very closely with poultry, and usually in situations where hygiene standards were substantially different to those in the U.S. and Europe."
A spokesperson for the FDA provided further data from WHO for 2003-2024 that showed among 888 cases reported to it, 463 of those had died.
The post on X by WarClandestine also hinted at a conspiracy theory based around "Disease X," which is a placeholder name for an unknown virus that could infect humans, first mooted by the World Health Organization.
"Disease X represents the knowledge that a serious international epidemic could be caused by a pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease," WHO said on its website.
The disease could come about in many ways, including as a result of biological warfare or the sudden spread of a virus similar to the "Spanish flu" that affected large parts of the world and is thought to have killed at least 40 million people in 1918-1919.
The WHO also considered adding a number of other diseases to its list of global threats, including arenaviral hemorrhagic fevers, highly pathogenic coronaviral diseases and Chikungunya, a viral disease transmitted to humans by infected mosquitoes.
However, the name "Disease X" has been misused to claim that it is a real disease being concocted by global leaders to enforce political change around the world, a theory based on no evidence and a fundamental misunderstanding of how the term was coined.
The Ruling
Needs Context.
The claim that one in four Americans could die from H5N1 is somewhat misleading. FDA Commissioner Dr. Robert Califf said during a recent Senate hearing that some data shows H5N1 has a one in four mortality rate among those infected. It is not a projection of how many Americans will die should it spread.
The data it is based on is also thought to be old, from infections among Chinese poultry workers in the 1990s.
FACT CHECK BY Newsweek's Fact Check team
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
The report's authors said changing people's behaviors before vaccines became available saved lives, but at great cost.
BOULDER, Colo. A new study authored by researchers at CU Boulder and UCLA says social distancing and other preventative measures, like lockdowns and school closures, prevented hundreds of thousands of deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19.
According to the report, 800,000 more people would have died from COVID and COVID complications had the precautions not been put into place before vaccines became available.
The study's authors, CU Boulder's Stephen Kissler and UCLA's Andrew Atkeson, said the social changes came at great cost.
Our work shows that behavior change can be a powerful force for slowing the spread of a dangerous and infectious respiratory disease for a long time, said Kissler, an assistant professor of computer science at CU Boulder. But with COVID-19, it came at a tremendous economic, social and human cost.
Kissler and Atkeson's research found that vaccines and behavioral changes were inseparably linked.
Without vaccines, behavior alone would have postponed infections, but in the end, nearly everyone would have been infected and subject to a high infection fatality rate from that first infection, they wrote. Without a behavioral response, vaccines would have come too late to save lives.
Their report showed that 68% of Americans were able to get vaccinated before ever being infected. Had people gotten COVID for the first time before being vaccinated, their risk of dying would have been as much as four times higher, the study says.
Kissler and Atkeson were alarmed at how big an impact behavior changes had. Pre-pandemic studies forecasted the changes would be minimal and short-lived. That said, the authors said they worry that if another pandemic were to occur, Americans would be less willing to stay home.
My concern is that the next pandemic will be deadlier, but people will ignore it, because they will say, Oh, we overdid it during COVID,' Atkeson said.
Atkeson and Kissler said U.S. policymakers need to develop a more centralized infrastructure on gathering data on how people more around and interact to spread viruses. They said if this infrastructure was put in place, future pandemic restrictions could be reduced.
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by Rong-Gong Lin II, Los Angeles Times
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Two new COVID-19 subvariants, collectively nicknamed FLiRT, are increasingly edging out the winter's dominant strain ahead of a possible summer uptick in coronavirus infections.
The new FLiRT subvariants, officially known as KP.2 and KP.1.1, are believed to be roughly 20% more transmissible than their parent, JN.1, the winter's dominant subvariant, said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious diseases expert at UC San Francisco.
The two FLiRT subvariants combined comprised an estimated 35% of coronavirus infections nationally for the two-week period that began April 28, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. By contrast, JN.1 is now believed to comprise 16% of infections; in mid-winter, it was blamed for more than 80%.
"It's been quite a while since we've had a new dominant variant in the U.S.," said Dr. David Bronstein, an infectious diseases specialist at Kaiser Permanente Southern California. "With each of these variants that takes over from the one before it, we do see increased transmissibilityit's easier to spread from person to person. So, that's really the concern with FLiRT."
The largest FLiRT subvariant, KP.2, is growing particularly fast as a proportion of existing coronavirus infections. In late March, it comprised just 4% of estimated infections nationally; most recently, it's estimated to comprise 28.2%.
The new subvariants have been dubbed FLiRT for the mutations on the evolved COVID-19 virus. "So instead of an 'L,' there's an 'F.' And instead of a 'T,' there's an 'R.' And then they put an 'i' in to make it cute," Chin-Hong said.
Despite their increased transmissibility, the new mutations don't appear to result in more severe disease. And the vaccine is expected to continue working well, given the new subvariants are only slightly different from the winter version.
The entry of the subvariants also come as COVID-19 hospitalizations hit record lows. For the week ending April 27, there were 5,098 admissionsone-seventh of this winter's peak, in which 35,137 admissions were reported for the week that ended Jan. 6.
However, as of May 1, hospitals nationwide are no longer required to report COVID-19 admissions to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; only voluntarily submitted data will now be posted nationally.
In Los Angeles County, COVID-19 levels appear to be in a lull. For the week that ended April 27, coronavirus levels in L.A. County wastewater were at 8% of the winter peak.
Still, some doctors say they wouldn't be surprised if there is a summer uptick in COVID casesas has occurred in prior seasons.
"By the summer, we can expect people's immunity to be a little bit lower," Chin-Hong said. For those who are older or immunocompromised, "they are potentially at risk for getting more serious disease."
Plus, people often gather indoors during summer to avoid the heat, which can increase the risk of transmission in crowded public venues.
Chin-Hong said he is seeing COVID-19 patients at UC San Francisco with serious illness, and "they were either very old or very immune compromised and they didn't get the most recent shots."
That the FLiRT subvariants are more easily able to spread underscores how important it is for those most at risk to be up to date on vaccinations and stay away from those who are sick, doctors say.
And while the chance of long COVID is likely less than the early days of the pandemic, it still exists.
Many people haven't gotten a recent COVID-19 vaccination, data show. For the week that ended Feb. 24, 29% of seniors nationwide had received a dose of the updated vaccine that became available in September. In California, as of April 30, about 36% of seniors had received an updated dose.
"We are still seeing those hospitalizations and bad outcomes, and even folks who are passing away from COVID. It hasn't gone away," Bronstein said. "The good news is that the ... vaccine still is very good at protecting you against hospitalizations, severe outcomes and death."
Between October and April, more than 42,000 COVID-19 deaths were recorded nationally, according to the CDC. That's significantly larger than the estimated flu deaths over the same time: 24,000.
Still, the number is smaller than the comparable period for the prior season, when more than 70,000 COVID deaths were reported. And that tally is far smaller than the first two devastating pandemic winters: Between October 2021 and April 2022, more than 272,000 deaths were recorded; and between October 2020 and April 2021, the number was more than 370,000.
The CDC in February recommended that seniors 65 and older get a second dose of the updated vaccine as long as it had been at least four months since an earlier injection. The CDC also says everyone 6 months and older should get a dose of the updated vaccine.
"Right now, the most important thing that folks can do is get the vaccine," Bronstein said. He suggested those who are especially vulnerable continue to mask whenever possible, especially in places like crowded airports and planes.
In addition, he said, it's important that people who are sick stay at home to avoid spreading germs to others, particularly the elderly. And if sickened people must leave home, they should wear a mask around others.
"Even in the summertime, what may feel like a cold can actually be a COVID infection," Bronstein said. "We need to make sure that if you're sick, that we're testing whenever possible, staying home ... and make sure that your symptoms are more mild before you decide to go back to your regular activities."
California recommends that people with COVID-19 symptoms stay home until symptoms are mild and improving and they haven't had a fever for 24 hours without medication.
They should also mask around others while indoors for 10 days after becoming sick or, if they have no symptoms, after testing positive. They can stop wearing a mask sooner, if they have two consecutive negative rapid test results at least a day apart. But they should avoid contact with all higher-risk people for 10 days, according to the state Department of Public Health.
And ahead of travel plans this summer, Chin-Hong suggested that older people speak with their health care provider about making sure that, should they come down with COVID-19, that Paxlovid can be prescribed without interfering with other medications. Paxlovid is an antiviral drug that, when taken by people at risk for severe COVID-19 who have mild-to-moderate illness, reduces the risk of hospitalization and death.
Chin-Hong also suggests that it makes sense for health care providers to prescribe Paxlovid to higher-risk people planning to travel where the medicine may not be readily available, as a "just-in-case" prescription. Clinicians have that discretion since Paxlovid has been fully approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, which gives health care providers greater leeway in deciding when to prescribe the drug.
Earlier this year, another medicine was also made available to help protect the most vulnerable peoplesuch as cancer patients and those who have received organ transplants. It's a monoclonal antibody called Pemgarda, which is administered intravenously and can be given once every three months. Authorized by the FDA for emergency use, it's given prophylactically and can help recipients prevent COVID-19 if they are later exposed to an infected person.
Anticipation is also building for a fresh version of the COVID-19 vaccine to be released possibly by September. It could be designed against last winter's JN.1 strain, but it's also possible officials decide it should be designed against the rising FLiRT subvariants, Chin-Hong said.
2024 Los Angeles Times. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
(NEXSTAR) There are two new COVID-19 variants circulating, posing a threat to a summer surge.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has been tracking the new variants, scientifically known as KP.2 and KP.1.1 since at least the start of 2024. Theyve been steadily growing in prominence ever since and have garnered the nickname FLiRT because of their mutations.
The latest data shows KP.2 is the dominant strain in the U.S., comprising almost 25% of the tests that have been sequenced. KP.1.1 makes up about 8% as of the end of April. Both are sublineages of the JN.1 lineage of the Omicron variant, the main COVID variant for roughly three years.
Both FLiRT variants are considered very similar to JN.1, health officials say, with early data suggesting only a couple of changes in their spike proteins.
With the virus expected to spread as the summer months approach, it may be sparking concerns about whether the last vaccine dose you received is still protecting you. Ultimately, it depends on when you got your last dose.
In the fall, an updated COVID vaccine was released. The CDC has recommended everyone 6 months old and older get the updated vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, or Novavax. In February, a federal immunization committee voted in favor of recommending an additional dose for those ages 65 and up. Those between the ages of 6 months and 4 years old require multiple doses, the CDC says.
Previously, health officials have said the COVID vaccines would provide protection from the virus for several months. In a February update on the newest vaccine booster made available in September, the CDC said that while it had (from September to January) been effective, they expected that protection would decline over time as had been seen with previous doses.
However, because the FLiRT variants are relatively new, there isnt enough data to show whether the vaccine or immunity from a recent case of COVID will provide effective protection against them.
Speaking with TODAY, Dr. William Schaffner, professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, said lab studies so far have shown vaccines and immunity may only provide partial protection. Late last month, the World Health Organization recommended that future COVID vaccines formulations be based on the JN.1 variant, a close relative of the FLiRT off-shoots that reigned as the most common in the U.S. over the last few months.
As of Thursday, the CDC is reporting minimal COVID activity in wastewater nationwide, and virus-related hospitalizations and deaths, as well as the rate of patients visiting emergency departments testing positive for COVID, are down.
A spokesperson for the CDC tells Nexstar that the agency is working to better understand [KP.2 and KP.1.1]s potential impact on public health, but notes that based on lab tests, there are low levels of SARS-CoV-2 transmission overall at this time.
That means that while KP.2 is proportionally the most predominant variant, it is not causing an increase in infections as transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is low, the spokesperson added. Based on current data there are no indicators that KP.2 would cause more severe illness than other strains. CDC will continue to monitor community transmission of the virus and how vaccines perform against this strain.
Its too soon to say whether a new COVID vaccine will be created for the summer months. While the CDC recently eased guidance surrounding COVID, the agency still recommends everyone 6 months old and older get the updated COVID vaccine released in fall, if they havent already. Health experts are also continuing to encourage testing if you experience symptoms or are exposed, staying home if youre sick, practicing good hygiene, and wearing a mask and social distancing when in public.
